Week 12: Back in the Black

[ofred]

Respect and enjoy your writeups but something to consider... Cal is my team and I have watched all the games, Goff actually plays slower at home this year. The coaching staff has given him the ok to audible which he does often at home running the clock all the way down at times. Not including the grambling game Cal at home has ran 61, 75, 61 and 83 plays for an average of 70. On the road they have ran 78, 92, 72(4 to's), 88 and 66 for an average of 79. The perception is that Cal runs a very fast offense but the reality is that they run a faster offense on the road and an average speed offense at home.
Besides that fact I do like the over. As you said Stanford doesn't have a strong pass rush which is Cal's weakness. Goff will carve up anyone when he has even a little time, if Shaw is smart he will dial up blitzes with tight man coverage. Stanford will be able to run and pass at will. Looking for a slightly lower number myself.

Thanks for the input. Goff, like other experienced and very good QBs, do often use the play clock off of incomplete passes, out of bounds plays, and other clock stoppage. I think with Stanford, Cal will pass more often- and should. Hopefully, if Stanford blitzes often, he'll dump the ball off quick and let his receivers get the yardage after the catch. I've only seen Cal twice this year, but that seems to be part of their game plan, and it works well from what I've seen.

What total are you hoping for?

 

[ofred]

CMU covers, but not the ass whopping I was expecting. More satisfying was that some Billy Walters type bettor dropped this line 3 points in an hour and lost their bet. I know it's smart to bet against the public, but who would bet tens of thousands of dollars on Kent State?

 

[fballgenius]

Floyd Mayweather?

 

[ofred]

Floyd Mayweather?

Is he still making crazy bets?

Such a drastic move, in such a short time, almost seems like the fix was in. Apparently they fixed the wrong player(JK).

 

[cashflow50]

if it has to do with the mac and a significant line move happens..i say fu*k it. I say time and time again that i'll never bet on weekday mac shit games and I still do lol... nice call on CMU fred. keep it coming bro

 

[mudman]

BOL this week!!

 

[ofred]

You want a degenerate gambler's play for the night? Take ULM at +6. Texas St. has lost to two of the worst teams in the country the past 2 weeks, Ga. ST. and NM St. By a combined score of 72-40, and both games were at home. ULM fired their coach which sometimes has a one game effect of players playing harder for the interim guy- a uniting of the team to show that they care. Or maybe they totally quit…. But you're getting 6 points vs. a totally horrible team that has proven that they suck at home. (Not an official play and believe me, I'm not watching)

 

[rekt]

2H tx st?

 

[ofred]

2H tx st?

I have no idea.

 

[ofred]

Don't have a lot of medium-type plays, but this is one:

Boise St. -11.5 Went against Boise last week with a ridiculous 30 point spread against a NM team that has a very good running game. Who woulda thought they'd lose the game?

Air Force is the public dog by a long shot, and I guess they should be considering how inconsistent Boise has been and how well AF has played recently. This one has been bet down from an open of 16. At 11.5, Boise off a loss, on their last home game for seniors, I think they'll be motivated and more focused. Boise is a veteran team that is probably better off here as the 2nd place team, having to win to take 1st place away from Air Force, than a team that always thinks they'll win at home.

Boise has shot themselves in the foot with turnovers. Last week they had 4, against Utah St. they had 8. Last week they had 3 interceptions off of receiver deflections, and many dropped passes. I think these types of things, for a team that has prided themselves on success and discipline, can be corrected. Rypien is an excellent QB that is still learning as a freshman. Coach Harsin, like most college coaches, doesn't allow a lot of access to the press for his players. But this week he made Rypien accessible as if to say he is the leader of this offense and he will be "the guy" who makes our offense go. And Rypien has the kind of confidence and poise that I don't think will cause him to get flummoxed from a loss last week. Boise also has the elusive, fast skill players that can give a slower, smaller AF defense a lot of trouble.

Now Air Force is an even more disciplined team, but they have their warts. They are also overdue for a tough road game where things can go badly. Don't be fooled by their new passing attack from last week. This team lives and dies by their improvised triple option run game. Boise has seen it each year and I think they're better equipped to handle it athletically than some of the cupcakes of the Mt. West. I'm really not sure if AF's win streak off of Hawaii, Army and Fresno makes them a quality team considering how bad the Mt. West is. They ARE good at beating the poor teams, but they have also been exposed vs. Colorado St. and Navy. I think they'll be exposed this week vs. a very focused Boise team that has a lot to play for and no guaranteed win as usual at home.

 

[KDawgg]

What total are you hoping for?

RE: Stan/Cal Over
Nothing specific, just hoping to get a better #. Generally I may shy away from a line move I can't explain but when its an area I feel like I have a better feel for than the linemakers (Pac12) I go for it. The weather will be beautiful on the fast turf and neither team will be able to cover the others wr's, it comes down to pace. Will Stanford pass or just drive it? Will Goff have time to expose the cb's? With disappointing seasons from Cal's receivers and Lawler and Davis banged up as well as rb's Lasko and Muhammad also banged up I think I'll lay off for now.

fyi, Lasko is by far Cal's best rb but has been hampered with various injuries all year. Cal's receivers were on nfl draft boards but have been plagued with drops all season. Goff is better than advertised as he has performed despite the drops, the lack of a consistent run game and terrible pass protection. The only thing that will hold him back at the next level is a dysfunctional organization.

 

[ofred]

RE: Stan/Cal Over
Nothing specific, just hoping to get a better #. Generally I may shy away from a line move I can't explain but when its an area I feel like I have a better feel for than the linemakers (Pac12) I go for it. The weather will be beautiful on the fast turf and neither team will be able to cover the others wr's, it comes down to pace. Will Stanford pass or just drive it? Will Goff have time to expose the cb's? With disappointing seasons from Cal's receivers and Lawler and Davis banged up as well as rb's Lasko and Muhammad also banged up I think I'll lay off for now.

fyi, Lasko is by far Cal's best rb but has been hampered with various injuries all year. Cal's receivers were on nfl draft boards but have been plagued with drops all season. Goff is better than advertised as he has performed despite the drops, the lack of a consistent run game and terrible pass protection. The only thing that will hold him back at the next level is a dysfunctional organization.

Lasco and Lawler are questionable, as is Cal safety Drew- their 2nd leading tackler. I'm hoping Cal goes after the Stanford secondary with a heavily weighted pass attack. And I know what you mean about Lasco…..he was an amazing playmaker last year. As for the drops, those things can even out if the players typically have good hands.

 

[ofred]

Can't get a play at all from the Ducks and Beavers this week. Both lines look about right, as do the totals. USC could pull the upset here, but they'll have to play their A game, which they might do. The Beavers defense is just a mess, and I couldn't possibly play them, but UW has been terrible in pass protection lately and I'm not sure they can cover this line. If the Beavers QB, Nick Mitchell, gets knocked out of the game, I'll take a 2H or live play on UW. The OSU backup QB looks like a deer in headlights and has zero confidence.

 

[cashflow50]

with you on boise fred.. lets cash this pup

 

[ofred]

Oklahoma -11.5 (write-up later)

 

[ofred]

Oklahoma -11.5 (write-up later)

Really like this one.

 

[bully07]

 

[ofred]

Oklahoma -11.5 I'm assuming now that the line is out that Boykin is playing. But with a high ankle sprain, I doubt he'll be the same player. If you've ever watched Boykin work his magic evading the rush, allowing his receivers that extra time to get open, running for a much needed 1st down, then you know how much TCU's offense will be marginalized with a much less mobile QB. The drop off to the backup QBs is extreme. I watched the final quarter of their Kansas game, and it was like watching a completely different offense without Boykin and Doctson in there. Doctson, who is definitely out, has 14 TDs. That's about 1/2 of the receiving TDs by the whole TCU receiving corps. Doctson is probably the best Big 12 NFL WR prospect, and likely a #1 pick. Their next best weapon is RB Aaron Green, who is a beneficiary of Boykin and their great pass game. Green's stats drop off vs. some of the better teams- having only about 60 yards per game against Iowa St, OSU, Texas and WVU.

Even if Boykin was healthy I would like Oklahoma here. TCU, with their injuries, and inexperienced defense, with 30 freshmen playing significant roles, is not the TCU we have come to know of the past. TCU doesn't recruit so well that they can just reload like Alabama or FSU or let's say, Oklahoma. The Sooners can be an enigma at times, a team that always seems to have that one game or two where they blow their chances for a shot at something big. But you know the talent is there on both sides of the ball. Right now they are playing so well, though, that I have to think they are right up there with Alabama and Clemson as national title contenders. In the Baylor game, they looked like the superior team and I thought they could have won by more than 10. Oklahoma right now doesn't seem to have any weaknesses, and you have to love their defensive prowess week by week.

Best of all, they are at home and focused on something special. None of this playing for a decent New Years Days bowl game. They know(and observers know) that they are good enough to beat anybody. They won at Baylor, where they have been whipped the last 2 years, and now will take no mercy on TCU. Without Boykin near 100%, and with Doctson out, and with a young easily exploitable defense, TCU is just an average Big 12 team. Oklahoma could win this big and I think they will.

 

[ofred]

Small Play:

Missouri/ Tennessee- under 42.5 Missouri has a seriously bad offense. Watching Drew Lock, the freshman QB, can be painful as he is learning in the SEC, with SEC defenses. He looks overwhelmed with the sheer speed of the game. Now I've only seen him twice, and he did well vs. a weak BYU defense in an emotional win last week. But I think he'll come down off the high against a much better Tenn. defense. His OL has been a sieve and that's why the run game has been poor. But Missouri plays run defense as well as anyone, and believe it or not they have a chance for a bowl bid. They HAVE to win this game limiting the Vol's scoring- it's been their only chance to win all year. Tenn. also has OL issues which causes them to play more cautious, run more, etc. Main reason to take the under is Missouri's great D at home in a meaningful game.

 

[ofred]

And small:

Wisconsin/ NW- under 40 As the snowstorm ends, this game will begin. Even with poor field conditions and freezing weather, this would have been a defensive contest. Wisconsin has been brutally tough on weak Big 10 offenses like Northwestern's. By some rankings, Wisconsin has the best D in the country. Northwestern will also run the ball often, playing cautiously, not hurrying. This game will be one of those run heavy games where the clock runs and runs. Possible slow field depending on the snow level on the field. (might be none)