In the PAC 12, and might have one more later:
3*Cal +14 Have seen enough Beaver games to know that 14 is a lot of points for them to give up when both their passing and kicking games are in bad shape. They can run the ball well, but Cal's run defense has held up pretty well considering their opponents. Oregon State's real strength is their defense, but really it is good, not great. The DL doesn't pressure all that much or get many sacks. Cal has had some success offensively when Jack Plummer has had time to throw. His OL has played poorly, but made some adjustments last week vs. USC that allowed Cal to pass effectively. Also, Cal has had a number of mediocre seasons under Wilcox, but they haven't quit late in the season. One of those games where if Cal gets on the board early, they'll have the confidence to win the game..and they are hungry for a win.
3* Oregon -12.5 Washington's defense is really going to struggle with this Oregon offense. Bo Nix is playing behind a very good OL, and both he and his backs are dominating at times. I am among those who thought Nix was overrated at Auburn. But watching him now, I think it was Auburn that provided poor coaching and weak OLs. Washington depends so much on Penix having an amazing game. This week, in noisy and raucous Autzen Stadium, I think he plays more like a decent, but not spectacular QB. His running game is so-so, and I think both Dan Planning and DC Lupoi will game plan to make Penix less dangerous. Just got a feeling Oregon wins this by a comfortable margin.
1* Oregon 1H -7 A little insurance in case of a back door cover.
3*
3* O
1* Oregon 1H -7 A little insurance in case of a back door cover.
Love Oregon & agree...I'm of school of thought that teams like Oregon this time of year and current position for playoffs, STYLE points matter. Win big favorable, win ugly hurts ranking (especially if @HOME). I think Buckeyes have/must do same like Oregon here, WIN BIG. BOL Fred, love your stuff.
2.5* Marshall +1 Best line I could find. Did Appalachian State really schedule the Citadel and Robert Morris in the middle of their season? During conference play? Yes, they did. IMO App. State is not what they used to be. Their A&M upset is not looking that impressive, and they got totally dominated 2nd half by JMU. They also lost to Texas State and a weaker CCU team on the road. Marshall is like the perfect bowl team, great at running the ball and at pass and run defense. Last week, they got super conservative vs. ODU, knowing that FGs would suffice since their D and running game would continue to shine. However, their OC has already made it clear that they can't play vanilla vs. App. State. Expect their freshman QB and game plan to open it up more. For Marshall, both players and fans, beating perennial favorite App. St. is a BIG thing and one that will motivate them to play their best.
2.5*Wake Forest -3.5 (-115) Most books have this around 4, and is that indication that the public is on UNC, and that the books need more bets on them too? Isn't Drake Maye and their 8-1 record proof that they are a very strong team? Not buying it. UNC's defense is bad, and Wake should really torch them. Wake at home, and really needing to win and win with emphasis. I also don't trust Mack Brown and UNC to finish the season looking anything like an 8-1 team. Look at how many games they lost with Sam Howell and his great RBs and WRs over the last few years. Wake has pretty good pass defense and yet has played a tough schedule. UNC hasn't played Clemson, NC State, Louisville, FSU or Syracuse. ND was their toughest game, and even though ND is down this season, they gave up 576 yards to them and lost handily.
2.5*Miss. St. +16.5 Going against Georgia is hard to do. But after their Tennessee win, can they have a semi-letdown? Can the MSU defense, which is pretty good, make them work hard to put points up? I'm betting yes. Georgia has some key injuries that Kirby Smart is probably thinking that he can provide extra healing time until the SEC Championship. I also think their D is still great, but losing so many players to the NFL has made them less dominant there. MSU can move the ball down the field, but in the red zone (like last year), they often fail to convert drives into TDs. Really hoping Leach, the OC and Will Rogers have something to help that issue. Hope the cowbells can at least make the Georgia offense a little less able to communicated and play off a bit. Maybe too much hoping, but I think it's a solid play.
2.5*
2.5*
1* Michigan -30
1* Michigan -17 1H (-115) With Casey Thompson out for Nebraska, their offense is in trouble. Watched quite bit of their game last week, a game where the Corhuskers gave it their all. Minnesota played a poor game, and yet still pulled out a win. I had Nebraska +14, and felt a bit lucky to get the win. Their backup QBs are terrible. After getting a 10-0 lead, the offense couldn't do squat. And the Nebraska defense is one of the worst in the Big 10, although they played with heart last week at home. Michigan should control this game from the start. Looking also for a few turnovers from the Nebraska QBs. I hate to take these large spreads, but this is an exception. Bad spot for Nebraska after an emotional loss, and Michigan DOES take care of business.
1* ODU +7.5 JMU has been the darling of the CFB media, and yet they started 5-0 mostly playing a soft schedule. Their defense is NOT stellar, and QB Todd Centeio has hurt both his shoulder and oblique in recent weeks. ODU isn't as bad as their record, and will play a spirited game at home. They aren't bowling, so games like this are what they play for.
1* Michigan -17 1H (-115) With Casey Thompson out for Nebraska, their offense is in trouble. Watched quite bit of their game last week, a game where the Corhuskers gave it their all. Minnesota played a poor game, and yet still pulled out a win. I had Nebraska +14, and felt a bit lucky to get the win. Their backup QBs are terrible. After getting a 10-0 lead, the offense couldn't do squat. And the Nebraska defense is one of the worst in the Big 10, although they played with heart last week at home. Michigan should control this game from the start. Looking also for a few turnovers from the Nebraska QBs. I hate to take these large spreads, but this is an exception. Bad spot for Nebraska after an emotional loss, and Michigan DOES take care of business.
1* ODU +7.5 JMU has been the darling of the CFB media, and yet they started 5-0 mostly playing a soft schedule. Their defense is NOT stellar, and QB Todd Centeio has hurt both his shoulder and oblique in recent weeks. ODU isn't as bad as their record, and will play a spirited game at home. They aren't bowling, so games like this are what they play for.
1.2* WSU- 9.5 The Cougs get a terrible ASU defense in the cold at Pullman. WSU's defense is also underrated and though not big, they are quick. Got a feeling that the ASU QB Trenton Bourguet, who is 5'10" in his shoes, has an off day after 2 pretty good games. Why was this guy sitting on the bench the last 3 years? WSU discovered their running game last week, and it looked good. They also are spending much practice time on stripping the ball and working on disguised coverages in the secondary. Washington State is a tough team at home, and should have beaten Oregon, and is 4-0 ATS at home in their PAC 12 games.
1* UCF +2 Tulane is another darling of the media. All this about UCF's vulnerability in pass defense is baloney. They are 22nd in the country in pass defense efficiency, and from what I've seen, they have a strong secondary. UCF has had an impressive season spoiled by a loss at ECU in which turnovers killed them. They run the ball well, and Tulane is good defending the run...but so is UCF. Just watching these two teams play, UCF looks better in speed and athleticism. On the other hand, taking a ranked team (UCF) vs. an unranked team on the road, is a tough play to make.
1* Vandy +17.5 Someone has to take Vandy. Never like to give up this many points as Kentucky is when your offense is in a slump and your OL stinks. Vandy will be able to score enough to hang around and make it interesting. Kentucky's play-calling has been highly criticized. This game just has the feel of a tight contest until the 4th quarter.
1* Air Force -20.5 (-113) Almost no one is betting on Air Force to cover this large spread. Yet they have already covered 4 spreads this large in 2022. The key here is that UNM has almost no passing game, which is AF's vulnerability (pass D). They don't even run the ball well anymore. So Air Force should get good field position all game. Air Force also getting UNM after just a week of prep, a tough thing for a defense vs. this AF option offense. UNM supposedly has pretty good defense, but their offense is so bad, the defense will get gassed here by the 2nd half.
1* UCF +2 Tulane is another darling of the media. All this about UCF's vulnerability in pass defense is baloney. They are 22nd in the country in pass defense efficiency, and from what I've seen, they have a strong secondary. UCF has had an impressive season spoiled by a loss at ECU in which turnovers killed them. They run the ball well, and Tulane is good defending the run...but so is UCF. Just watching these two teams play, UCF looks better in speed and athleticism. On the other hand, taking a ranked team (UCF) vs. an unranked team on the road, is a tough play to make.
1* Vandy +17.5 Someone has to take Vandy. Never like to give up this many points as Kentucky is when your offense is in a slump and your OL stinks. Vandy will be able to score enough to hang around and make it interesting. Kentucky's play-calling has been highly criticized. This game just has the feel of a tight contest until the 4th quarter.
1* Air Force -20.5 (-113) Almost no one is betting on Air Force to cover this large spread. Yet they have already covered 4 spreads this large in 2022. The key here is that UNM has almost no passing game, which is AF's vulnerability (pass D). They don't even run the ball well anymore. So Air Force should get good field position all game. Air Force also getting UNM after just a week of prep, a tough thing for a defense vs. this AF option offense. UNM supposedly has pretty good defense, but their offense is so bad, the defense will get gassed here by the 2nd half.
Longhorn, congrats on your USC play. You were right about Riley..he had that backup QB passing away even with a huge lead late 4th quarter.
Upping WSU -9.5 to 1.4*
1* CCU -4.5 Yes, McCall is out for CCU, but this play says that his backup, Bryce Carpenter, has a good outing. He has been at CCU for 5 years as a backup, knows the system well, and is a better runner than McCall. He won't be as accurate passing-wise, but he's not bad either. CCU's weakness is in pass defense, but I don't think S. Miss. will be able to take advantage of it since their weakness is a passing game. Then there is the injury factor. Often, players will rally to play better, more inspired when the star is out. CCU at home, and its a loud, supportive crowd.
Leans:
WSU -6.5 1H
Texas State +15.5
UTSA -10 1H
Upping WSU -9.5 to 1.4*
1* CCU -4.5 Yes, McCall is out for CCU, but this play says that his backup, Bryce Carpenter, has a good outing. He has been at CCU for 5 years as a backup, knows the system well, and is a better runner than McCall. He won't be as accurate passing-wise, but he's not bad either. CCU's weakness is in pass defense, but I don't think S. Miss. will be able to take advantage of it since their weakness is a passing game. Then there is the injury factor. Often, players will rally to play better, more inspired when the star is out. CCU at home, and its a loud, supportive crowd.
Leans:
WSU -6.5 1H
Texas State +15.5
UTSA -10 1H
