Week 11

[ofred]

Got a couple of units back, although really got it wrong on the Boise defense. And BYU's offense really clicked. Score could have been worse. FSU win was sweet. Wish every large play was that easy. Back at it, starting with the MAC...
YTD: 76-69, + 7.81 units

1* Ohio -1.5 Not going to overthink this one. Ohio and Kurtis O'Rourke making it look easy moving the ball and scoring. Miami has Gabbert back, but their offense has got to be frustrating to play in. Play calling lacks creativity, lots of standard runs, and they run the play clock down to almost nothing looking back and forth to the sidelines. That might skew their defense to look better than it is...and maybe I should play the under. Ohio's defensive numbers are poor. But that is also due to early season games with PSU, Iowa State, and a lot of passing yards to a Fordham team that is good FCS offense. But in most recent 3 games, has only given up 18 points per game, and 323 yards of offense/pg. Also, with O"Rourke playing so well, and his accuracy has been impressive, Ohio just looks so damn confident out there...and can win it late if needed.

 

[ofred]

1.3* Bowling Green/ Kent - under 56 (-114)

Bowling Green has found their defense in recent games. However, if you watch their offense, it looks like their QB is constantly under pressure, therefore throws a lot of short quick passes. Both QBs, McDonald and Schlee, are underwhelming as passers, and both offenses will rely heavily on the run. Kent runs the ball more than 60% of the time, and throws more in games that they are way behind in. This game feels like a close contest where every FG will matter, where it is unlikely we'll see garbage time passing much. MAC scoring is down this season, and these two offenses are an example of why that's true. also, their defensive stats are skewed by early season non-conference games vs. much better opponents.

 

[HacheMan]

GL fred

 

[ofred]

GL fred

What is with the blue print, and added dollar signs?

 

[jamezwinn]

BOL Ofred!

 

[MSUSpartans]

What is with the blue print, and added dollar signs?

You can submit your picks for tracking within a post. Click on the dollar sign on the post options.

 

[ofred]

You can submit your picks for tracking within a post. Click on the dollar sign on the post options.

Submit to where? For what reason?

 

[MSUSpartans]

Submit to where? For what reason?

Not too sure, but in the reply box, there is $ option that you can click when you make a post and it will keep track of your picks under your profile. I just noticed it recently.

 

[ofred]

1* ULL -3 (-115) Georgia Southern has been a better than expected team this season, but their Nebraska upset doesn't look too impressive anymore. Also, they might just have the worst defense in the Sun Belt Conference. 5.6 YPC and a pass defense that is almost as bad. Terrible tackling in the back 7. ULL off a disappointing home loss to Troy, a game that they led by 17, and then failed to generate any offense 2nd half. troy, though, might have the best D of the Sun Belt. ULL at home, and this game keeps them in the bowl picture.

 

[MAGAking1]

Crushem like a rotten grape this week Feddie Baby!!!!

 

[ofred]

Hats off to Bowling Green, scoring only 6 tonight. 2-0 start. For Friday, two leans:

USC/ Colorado- under 65.5 The larger of the leans. With UCLA and ND on deck, I can't see USC showing much here. Also, USC's defense has looked like squat lately so I think they take it out on this CU offense that really has the worst QBs in the Power 5 conferences (although Rutgers is close). Colorado HAS torn the ball even though they don't even do that well...because the passing game is so bad. USC will also keep it on the ground more than usual, and try to make sure Caleb Williams does not run the ball much, or risk much contact.

UC -5.5 Just got a sense that UC's home field, special teams and an overdue outstanding game happens here. ECU has been at home a lot, and this will be a hostile, noisy crowd.

 

[ofred]

Hats off to Bowling Green, scoring only 6 tonight. 2-0 start. For Friday, two leans:

USC/ Colorado- under 65.5 The larger of the leans. With UCLA and ND on deck, I can't see USC showing much here. Also, USC's defense has looked like squat lately so I think they take it out on this CU offense that really has the worst QBs in the Power 5 conferences (although Rutgers is close). Colorado HAS torn the ball even though they don't even do that well...because the passing game is so bad. USC will also keep it on the ground more than usual, and try to make sure Caleb Williams does not run the ball much, or risk much contact.

UC -5.5 Just got a sense that UC's home field, special teams and an overdue outstanding game happens here. ECU has been at home a lot, and this will be a hostile, noisy crowd.

I really need to edit before posting. Colorado has to run the ball, not torn.

 

[LonghornMM]

I'm going to take a hard look at USC's team total when it is posted at my book. I think that SC will score at will and will put up at least 50 on Colorado.

 

[PatsFanatic]

Great start to the week! Good luck tonight.

 

[indiana]

Fred......well done buddy.....BOL tonight....
continued success with your weekend action.....
look forward to your thought's.........indy

 

[phokingood]

I'm going to take a hard look at USC's team total when it is posted at my book. I think that SC will score at will and will put up at least 50 on Colorado.

49.5?

 

[LonghornMM]

49.5?

I've already played USC's TT over 49 1/2

 

[ofred]

I wouldn't play the USC TT of 49.5, although it might hit. USC has 2 big games in the next two weeks, and might play super vanilla/ run-heavy 2nd half. Just for clarification, my plays tonight are leans (small bets).

 

[LonghornMM]

I wouldn't play the USC TT of 49.5, although it might hit. USC has 2 big games in the next two weeks, and might play super vanilla/ run-heavy 2nd half. Just for clarification, my plays tonight are leans (small bets).

I hear you, Fred. I've already played it though. SC has already showed their hand on offense through games already played, so there is really nothing to hide or be vanilla about. Riley's history is he goes full throttle on offense regardless of the opponent. IMO it doesn't matter about who is up next on SC's schedule. He's going to do what he always does. One of us will hit. Thank you for posting. I always take a look at your plays.

 

[LonghornMM]

Additionally, this is as much of a play on USC's potent offense as it is on Colorado's pourous defense, who can't stop anyone. CU is giving up an average of 40PPG.