MLB Daily Line Drive: Wednesday's picks, betting odds and analysis
Double-Play Picks
Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies (+105, 8)
Jose Altuve is the epitome of the Astros being on another level in the American League this year.
Diminutive in height measurements only, the Houston second baseman is on an absolute tear. Since the start of June (44 games) he is hitting a jaw-droppingly good .424 with a 1.147 OPS, but what’s crazier still is that he is still trending upward.
In July alone (18 games), Altuve is hitting .494 with a 1.287 OPS. Wow. So, simply put, there is no one in the baseball universe on his level right now. Just like the Astros in the American League.
Houston sits at 67-33 through the team’s first 100 games, putting them 17 games ahead of the Mariners in the AL West and 13 games ahead of the Indians and Red Sox for the American League lead.
The Astros take their show on the road Wednesday when they visit the Phillies and, to make things tougher for Philly, Houston loves playing on the road. The Astros are a very impressive 37-12 on the road this season, but the most remarkable thing about that number is that they are 36-13 against the runline away from Minute Maid Park.
Houston sends Mike Fiers to the mound for this interleague showdown and the right-hander has been dealing in his last four starts. Fiers is 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA and a 1.083 WHIP.
The Phillies counter with Aaron Nola, who has been hot himself of late (4-1, 1.70 ERA), but he hasn’t had to deal with a team like the Astros over that stretch. Check this out, Houston ranks first in runs/game (5.99), team average (.292), OPS (.860) and home runs (165).
Like we said Nola is good, but it’s the Phillies versus a team on another level. Even on the road, this value is too great to pass up.
Pick: Astros -125
Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Indians (-200, 9)
The Indians took the opening game of this three-game series with a thrilling 11-7 extra inning win Tuesday night over the visiting Angels. The Angels showed some guts coming back from an early 7-0 deficit, but eventually fell to the powerful Indians on an eleventh inning walk-off grand slam by Edwin Encarnacion.
The Tribe is heating up at just the right time as the Royals are nipping at their heals for the lead in the American League Central division. The Indians have won eight of their last nine home games and in those eight victories they have covered -1.5 seven times.
Indians' co-ace Carlos Carrasco gets the ball at Progressive Field this evening. Despite The Tribe dropping his last two starts, those were on the road. At home they have won Carrasco's last five outings and have covered the runline in his last four home starts.
The Angels will run Ricky Nolasco out to the hill tonight and he's having a rough season. The Halos have lost seven of Nolasco's last eight road starts and have lost by more than one run in his last five away losses. In his last three starts overall, he owns a 10.66 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, and the Angels have lost all three.
The Indians have won the 10 of the last 11 meetings with the Angels dating back to 2015 and within those 11 games they are 8-0 in the last eight at home and have covered -1.5 in nine of those last 10 wins.
There is something to be said for momentum in baseball, and coming off a walk-off grand slam is a solid momentum builder for tonight's game.
Pick: Indians -1.5 (-105)
Yesterday's Picks: 1-1
Season To Date: 97-86-9
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox (12-4, 2.48 ERA, $322)
Chris Sale is one of the top candidates for the American League Cy Young Award at this point of the season and he has certainly shown no signs of slowing down.
Over his last four starts, Sale owns a 1.30 ERA with a WHIP of 0.8313 and he has rung up an average of 11.25 strikeouts during that four-game span.
Sale gets the ball in Seattle against the Mariners this afternoon and the Sox are -230 favorites.
Slumping: Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants (4-11, 5.05 ERA, $-835)
Jeff Samardzija is having a rough season to say the least. He currently ranks as the seventh worst starting pitcher on our Starting Pitcher Money list at $-835.
In his last three trips to the mound he has a team win/loss record of 0-3 with an ERA of 8.31 and a WHIP of 1.62.
"The Shark" gets the ball, during Shark Week, at home against the Pirates as a -143 favorite this afternoon.
Wednesday's Top Trends
* Under is 11-0 in the Seattle Mariners' last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 (Sale). Red Sox/Mariners Total: 8.
* The Houston Astros are 9-0 in their last nine vs. National League East. -125 today @ Phillies.
* The Oakland Athletics are 1-10 in the last 11 meetings in Toronto. +150 today @ Blue Jays.
* The Chicago Cubs are 10-1 in their last 11 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. -250 today @ White Sox.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
There is a slight chance of a thunderstorm (35 percent) on the South Side of Chicago late this evening. The Cubs and White Sox should be able to get their game in before the storms roll through, but these things can sometimes be unpredictable.
Our most impactful wind will be blowing in from right in Arlington where the Rangers will welcome the Marlins with a total set at 10.5.
Ump Of The Day
Mark Wegner will be behind the plate this afternoon in The Bronx for the game between the Yankees and Reds.
Wegner's Over/Under record this season is 10-7 and the Over is 7-1-1 in his last nine games calling balls and strikes. The Over is also 5-0-1 in his last six games involving the Yankees and 4-1 in his last five involving the Reds.
The total for this afternoon's game is currently set at 9.
