MLB Daily Line Drive: Wednesday's Picks, Betting Odds and Analysis
Double-Play Picks
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals (-160, 9.5)
The Nationals will look to continue to pad their standing in the National League East as they close out their three-game home set in a rubber match against the division rival Braves on Wednesday afternoon.
It has been high-scoring series thus far, which shouldn’t be a surprise the way Washington hammers the ball all over the field, but it was the Braves taking the opener 11-10, before the Nats responded with a 10-5 win on Tuesday night.
Those were the 10th and 11th times the Nationals have scored 10 runs or more in a game this season and the bats could stay hot in Wednesday’s series finale as Atlanta sends right-hander Julio Teheran to the mound.
Teheran has been dominated by the Nationals over the years, with the Braves going 0-8 in his last eight starts against Washington. The 26-year-old is 0-3 in those eight starts with a 6.11 ERA and a 1.692 WHIP. That includes an outing back on April 19th, where Teheran surrendered seven runs on seven hits in just four innings of work.
Teheran will once again have his hands full with a Nats’ lineup that ranks first in average, second in runs and OPS and fourth in home runs.
Washington counters by sending Tanner Roark to the hill. Roark has been solid for Washington this year going 6-3 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.304 WHIP. The right-hander also has a 4.11 strikeout to walk rate at home.
Pick: Nationals -160
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros (-160, 9.5)
The Rangers and Astros collide in the final game of their three-game series in Houston. The first two games of this series have gone Under the total, today is the day the bats come to play.
Andrew Cashner gets the ball for the Rangers this evening. To say we don't trust Cashner's 2017 pitching numbers is a bit of an understatement. His 3.17 ERA looks good on the surface, but this is a very hittable pitcher starting against a very good offensive lineup. The Astros rank No. 1 in the American League in batting average and rank second (behind the mighty Yankees) in slugging percentage and OPS. Cashner doesn't miss many bats with only 29 strikeouts in 65.1 innings this season. He actually has more walks (30) than strikeouts and the Astros should be able to expose him today.
The Astros will counter with their No. 1 prospect Francis Martes who gets the ball for his second major league appearance and his first major league start. The kid has a live arm, to be sure, but his 2017 numbers have been far less than impressive. His big league debut came against the Angels out of the bullpen last week and he surrendered four hits, four earned runs, two walks and a homerun - tossing 78 pitches in just 3.2 innings of work. And his numbers in AAA this season aren't any better with a 5.29 ERA and 2.103 WHIP in eight starts for Fresno of the Pacific Coast League. Walks are his biggest issue, surrendering 28 bases on balls in only 32.1 innings pitched.
If questionable starting pitching doesn't sway your opinion towards the Over, perhaps the fact that Manny Gonzalez will be calling balls and strikes tonight might do the trick. The Over is 7-0-2 in his last nine games behind the plate.
Pick: Over 9.5
Yesterday's Picks: 1-0-1
Season To Date: 60-52-7
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Edinson Volquez, Miami Marlins (3-7, 3.41 ERA, $-375)
Following up a no-hitter, with seven shutout innings definitely qualifies you as streaking. And that is exactly what Edinson Volquez is doing right now for the Marlins.
Volquez has pitch 16 straight scoreless innings, allowing just three hits, while racking up 18 strikeouts to just four walks. Over his last four starts he has a 1.29 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP. Volquez and the Marlins are -165 home favorites this afternoon versus the A's.
Slumping: Jeremy Hellickson, Philadelphia Phillies (5-4, 4.50 ERA, $689)
On the surface, Hellickson's numbers don't look too terrible, but if you dive a bit deeper the Phillies' right-hander has struggled mightily in his last four outings, with Philadelphia losing three of those four games.
Hellickson has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his last four starts and has pitched to a 6.85 ERA in those contests, with a WHIP of 1.747. Hellickson and the Phillies are +118 home dogs against the visiting Red Sox.
Wednesday's Top Trends
* Under is 5-0 in Edinson Volquez's last five home starts. A's @ Marlins O/U: 9.
* Rockies are 2-11 in the last 13 meetings in Pittsburgh. Rockies -114.
* Over is 6-0 in Rays last six overall. Rays @ Blue Jays O/U: 9.
* Under is 14-3 in Mike Leake's last 17 starts overall. Brewers at Cardinals O/U: 9
Weather To Keep An Eye On
Wednesday's forecast is calling for a beautiful day for baseball at most ball parks, but there are a few spots with slight chances of inclement weather and rain on tap.
In New York, where the Mets are slated to host the Cubs, there will be a moderate 11 mile per hour hitter's wind gusting out to left field (O/U: 9). In Detroit, there is an 11 mile per hour pitcher's wind gusting in from left field for today's Tigers-D-backs game (O/U: 9.5) and there's an 11 mile per hour wind blowing out to left-center field at Target Field in Minnesota when the Twins host the Mariners (O/U: 10.5). There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms in Washington, Chicago and Pittsburgh.
Ump Of The Day
Tom Woodring: Woodring will be behind the plate for today's interleague showdown in Detroit between the Diamondbacks and Tigers and while he was calling his first balls and strikes just back in 2014, since then he has tended to side with the Over. The Over is 31-20 (62 percent) over the course of his career, but more importantly for this game the Over is 7-0 in the last seven interleague matchups he has officiated. The Over is also 4-1 in his games this season when the total is above 8.5. The total for today's game is currently 9.5.