Wednesday 5/31/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Wunderdog

Arizona @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh -104

The Arizona Diamondbacks got another fantastic start out of Robbie Ray last night, as it was his eighth time in 11 starts of limiting the opponent to three or fewer runs. It snapped a three game losing streak by Arizona, as he has become a bonafide stopper. While all that is great, Arizona has not shown a great depth of pitching. Since the start of the 2013 season, they are 12-20 when following a game where they had a shutout, with a negative 23.4% ROI against them. Meanwhile that was the third shutout of the season absorbed by the Pirates and they are 2-0 when following a game where they were shutout, averaging 5.5 runs a game.

 

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The Prez

Chicago at San Diego
Play: Chicago -170

The San Diego Padres are giving the world champion Chicago Cubs fits and aim to take the finale of the three-game series and win their season high fourth straight contest. First pitch in this National League affair is scheduled for 3:40 p.m. ET at Petco Park when Jake Arrieta (5-4, 4.92 ERA) opposes Luis Perdomo (0-2, 5.61).

The Cubs have not yet found their offensive mojo this season. The current West Coast trip has seen their offense shut out twice by the Los Angeles Dodgers and score just four total runs in the first two games at Petco in San Diego.

Arrieta has dropped three of his last four starts and is coming off a loss to the Dodgers this past Friday when he allowed four runs over six innings. While Arrieta has not been as effective over the last year he has had his share of success at Petco Park and is 2-1 in his career against the Padres in San Diego sporting a 3.18 ERA in those three outings. Arrieta has had some poor luck in combination with allowing a larger fly ball to ground ball ratio but his SIERA sits at just over 3.00 and he strike out percentage so far in 2017 is at a career high.

Perdomo has been the victim of lack of run support from his San Diego 'mates. He is off a loss to the Washington National on Friday night in a game he allowed three runs and six hits. Perdomo's ERA is higher than his xFIP but this is due to abnormal underlying peripherals. His GB:FB ratio and his BABIP are the best of his young career but his stats on the minors don't support that he continues with his ground ball and K:BB per nine innings 2017 success.

When comparing this afternoon's matchup between the Cubs and Padres power container the Cubs have a large advantage. The same goes for the two on the mound. The ball carries much better at Petco in day games and the Cubs out homer the Pads and earn a series finale win

The world champion and talented Cubs (25-26) has not been below .500 this late in a season since finishing the 2014 campaign at 73-89 and despite their recent struggles, especially on this West Coast road trip, they have a very favorable matchup on the Petco mound this afternoon.

 

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Tony Finn

Philadelphia at Miami
Play: Miami -145

Phils’ starter Hellickson had an unsustainable 1.80 ERA in April which morphed into a 7.30 ERA in May; Continued regression is in order.

Hellickson's velocity differential between his fastball and changeup is negligible this season, the right-hander has a ridiculously low 6% Swinging Strike percentage, a career high hard contact rat of 31% and fly ball heavier than at any point in his career.

Marlins starter Volquez (0-7, 4.82 ERA) earns his first win of the season and positive regression takes hold. Eddy V has a solid SIERA and has increased most of his mission critical underlying peripherals after a switch from the AL to the NL.

 

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Oskeim Sports

Oakland at Cleveland
Play: Oakland +134

Sean Manaea was traded to Oakland from Kansas City at the MLB trade deadline in 2015 and enjoyed a solid rookie campaign in 2016. The talented southpaw finished with a 3.86 ERA and 3.84 SIERA across 144.2 innings of work.

Manaea posted a 7.71 K/9 rate and improved throughout the second half of the season (increased strikeout to walk ratio from 2.75 to 4.06; reduced home run rate and WHIP). Manaea garnered a 2.67 ERA and a 8.0 K/9 rate in the second half of 2016.

While the 25-year-old toes the rubber with a 4.35 ERA through his first 8 starts this season, Manaea's peripherals are solid: 3.39 FIP, 9.80 K/9, 0.65 HR/9 and a 53.8% ground ball rate.

Manaea ranks within the top 10 in MLB in both ground ball rate and swinging strike rate (minimum 20 innings pitched). His slider currently ranks in the 99th percentile in MLB in swinging strikes and in the 93rd percentile in inducing ground balls.

The sophomore hurler should improve upon his solid start against a scuffling Cleveland lineup that is averaging just 3.9 runs per game versus left-handed starters (.317 OBP; .688 OPS) and 4.2 runs per game at night (.307 OBP; .696 OPS). Manaea also takes the mound in excellent form with a 3.18 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last three starts.

Meanwhile, Cleveland right-hander Mike Clevinger enters tonight's game with a 6.75 ERA and 1.82 WHIP at home. The 26-year-old's 2.86 ERA across four starts is grossly misleading in light of his unsustainable .240 BABIP and 81.9% strand rate. Clevinger's true skill set is evidenced by his 3.56 FIP and 3.78 xFIP, both of which are still very good.

Clevinger posted a .288 BABIP and a 1.36 HR/9 rate in 53 innings last season so regression is likely in the near future. He continues to struggle with his command and control at the MLB level as evidenced by his 4.84 BB/9 rate across 22.1 innings of work. Scouts have indicated that Clevinger's "jerky windup" and follow through "are a mess."

From a technical standpoint, the Indians are 0-4 in Clevinger's last four starts on four days of rest and 2-6 in their last eight games versus left-handed starters.

 

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Alan Harris

Dustin Johnson (-155) over Jordan Spieth

Johnson comes into the tournament as one of the hottest golfers in the world, and it seems as if his mysterious injury that kept him out of the Masters is behind him. He finished 13th at the Byron Nelson and 12th at the Players since the injury and he was second in the Wells Fargo and won the WGC Mexico in his two tournaments before Augusta. Spieth, on the other hand, hasn't really lived up to the hype after his monster year two years ago. He did finish second last week at Colonial but missed the cut in back to back tourneys before that (Byron Nelson and the Players), and his 11th place finish at the Masters wasn't all that impressive as he made a run on the one day where everyone else struggled. We also have course history in our favor here as DJ has three Top 13 finishes going back to 2011 while Jordan has only cracked the Top 13 once in the four times he has played here. He played well in 2015, finishing third (Johnson was 13th) but he's finished 57th (2016), 20th (2014) and 63rd (2013) the three other times at Muirfield. Throw in the fact that we have Johnson as a much better course fit overall compared to Spieth (looking at driving accuracy and driving distance, strokes gained on approach, sand save %, Par 4 scoring from 450-500 yards, Par 3 scoring from 175-200 yards and proximity to the hole from 200+ yards) and we'll lay the price with DJ here as we expect him to be hovering around on the leaderboard once Sunday afternoon rolls around.

 

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Mike Rose

Los Angeles at St. Louis
Play: St. Louis -130

This is the game the Cardinals must take. No ifs, ands or buts. Martinez possesses the better overall arm in this starting pitching matchup, and he gets the benefit of toeing his own bump. St. Louis saw Ryu in the four innings he threw at them when he came in to relieve Maeda last week. The Cardinals are 5-6 and average just 3.7 runs per game against lefties to date, but Ryu is very hittable evidenced by the 44 hits and 19 ER he’s conceded through his 40 innings of work. C-Mart is 2-2 with a 3.55 ERA and .231 BAA in six career starts against the Dodgers, and he’s been at his best at home where he’s only allowed a .185 BAA. He’s faltered in high leverage situations allowing opponents to bat .313 against him, but if he can limit the damage the few times LA threatens, his offense should grant him enough of a cushion on the scoreboard to tally the win.

 

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Chris Jordan

My free pick is in San Francisco, where the Giants and Washington Nationals are going to stay under

MAKE NOTE: All Run Line/Total plays automatically list pitchers with the starters who are scheduled to go at the time of the wager, and I want you to be sure the following pitchers are the starters of record on your ticket when making your play: Max Scherzer and Matt Cain. If one or both of these pitchers is not going, this is a no-play.

Scherzer steps to the hill after one of his most dominant outings of the season last Friday, when he allowed one run and struck out 13. He was .1 inning away from his first complete game this season.

Tonight he steps to the hill with the second-most strikeouts in the Majors this season, and will be dominant.

The Nationals will have a tough time against Frisco's Cain, who has registered a 1.21 ERA in his home starts. And make note, he has to have a mindset of being dominant, since he has received one run or fewer of support in six of his 10 starts this season.

Play this one low.

5* UNDER Nationals/Giants (Scherzer/Cain)

 

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BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Wednesday, May 31 is:

Cubs (Arrieta) over Padres (Perdomo).

 

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Bob Akmens Sports
Dr.Bob Akmens
3/4 Na.Predators/Pit Penquins Over

 

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Bob Harvey Sports

959 Los Angeles Dodgers

 

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Free Silver Key Pick for Wednesday ML Baseball

Colorado Senzatela -R +1.5 Runs, -135 over SEATTLE (10:10 et)

 

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1. NSA(The Legend) MLB - Yankees -110
2. Ray "The Playmaker" Bowden MLB - Mets -175
3. VegasSI MLB - Cubs -170
4. SportsAction365 MLB - Cubs -170
5. Gameday Network MLB - Yankees -110
6. Vegas Line Crushers MLB - Indians -145
7. Gerry "Big Cat" Andino MLB - Nationals -190
8. Lou Panelli MLB - Mets -175
9. Steve "Scoop" Kendall MLB - Angels -125
10. VegasSI Platinum Info Club MLB - Dodgers +120
11. William E. Stockton MLB - Phillies +125
12. Vincent Pioli MLB - Pirates -110
13. International Sports Syndicate MLB - Nationals -190
14. SCORE MLB - Rays-135
15. East Coast Line Movers MLB - Red Sox over 9.5
16. Tony Campone MLB - Angels -125
17. Chicago Sports Group MLB - Cubs -170
18. Hollywood Sportsline MLB - Cubs -170
19. VIP Action MLB - Mariners -175
20. South Beach Sports MLB - Pirates -110
21. Las Vegas Sports Commission MLB - Yankees over 9
22. Sports Cash System MLB - Red Sox -155
23. BettingOnlineUSA MLB - Angels -125
24. Sports Betting Professor MLB - Pirates -110
25. Odds Worth Betting MLB - Nationals -190
26. NY Players Club MLB - Blue Jays -145
27. Las Vegas Private CEO Club MLB - Pirates -110
28. Michigan Sports MLB - Phillies under 8
29. National Consensus Report MLB - Nationals -190
30. Fred Callahan MLB - Blue Jays -145
31. PointSpreadReport MLB - Phillies +125

 

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National Sports Service

MLB Atlanta +115

 

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John Martin
May 31 '17, 7:05 PM in 2h
MLB | Yankees vs Orioles
Play on: Yankees +100 at 5Dimes

1 Unit Bonus Play on New York Yankees +100

The Baltimore Orioles are just 1-8 in their last nine games overall. The New York Yankees have gone 6-3 in their last nine games. And Masahiro Tanaka looks to have found his groove in his last start, striking out 13 batters while allowing just one earned run in 7 1/3 innings against the A's. Tanaka is 1-1 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in six starts against the Orioles as well. Kevin Gausman is 2-4 with a 6.17 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in 11 starts for the Orioles this season. Guasman has allowed 9 runs in 10 2/3 innings in his two starts against the Yankees in 2017. The Yankees are 22-5 in in Tanaka's last 27 starts vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Totals Guru
May 31 '17, 7:10 PM in 2h
MLB | MIL vs NYM
Play on: UNDER 7½ -103

Free Total Annihilator On Brewers vs Mets under 7½ -103