MLB Daily Line Drive: Wednesday's Picks, Betting Odds and Analysis
Double-Play Picks
New York Yankees at Texas Rangers (+120, 8.5)
When making picks on MLB totals, never lock in your wager without checking off all of the boxes of research items. Starting pitching, lefty-vs-righty, stadium tendencies, recent history of both teams, home plate umpire tendencies...and WEATHER. The game today in Kansas City between the visiting New York Yankees and the Royals features a pretty good pitching matchup, but the weather forecast for this evening at Kauffman Stadium just pops off the page and is too good to ignore.
A 20-25 mile per hour wind blowing straight out to center field is exactly what the doctor ordered to push today's game over the posted total of 8.5 (don't be surprised to see that number climb throughout the day).
Jason Vargas gets the ball at home for the Royals and he is off to a terrific start to the 2017 season with a 5-1 record, a 1.01 ERA, and 0.92 WHIP but the Yankees' offense in no joke and they have been punishing left-handed pitching - the Yanks rank second in the American League with a .762 OPS against lefties this season. The Yankees are averaging 8.33 runs per game over their last three contests, so they are showing no signs of slowing down.
The Royals offense got off to a terrible start to the season but they have seen improvement and are averaging 4.75 runs per game over their last eight. Yankees' starter Michael Pineda won't give you any free passes (only six walks all season) but he does have a tendency to give up fly balls and has allowed eight home runs in 2017.
Over has cashed in seven of the last eight meetings between the Yankees and Royals.
Pick: Over 8.5
Philadelphia Phillies at Texas Rangers (-135, 10)
Zach Eflin gets the ball for Philadelphia today in Texas against Andrew Cashner and the surging Texas Rangers. While Eflin's numbers have been pretty good this season (2.81 ERA in five starts), you simply can't ignore how bad the Phillies have been recently.
The Phils have dropped 13 of their last 16 baseball games and nine of their last 11 on the road. They have also lost Eflin's last three starts - mostly thanks to their bullpen which has only converted six of 15 official save opportunities and owns an ERA of 4.68.
The Rangers, on the other hand, have won seven in a row including their last six games at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. They seem to have worked out their early season bullpen struggles that cost the team (and this daily article) a few wins in April and even Sam Dyson is getting hitters out recently.
We're not huge Cashner fans, but when you get a team that is so hot against a team that is so bad at decent value you have to pull the trigger.
Pick: Rangers -135
Yesterday's Picks 2-0
Season to Date: 34-27-3
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: Joe Biagini, Toronto Blue Jays (1-1, 2.28 ERA, $211)
Right-hander Joe Biagini may be a total goofball, but his conversion from middle/late reliever to a member of the dilapidated Blue Jays' starting rotation has been nothing but successful.
In his two starts since being plucked out of the pen Biagini has allowed zero earned runs, zero walks, and only six hits. He's not fully stretched out as a starter yet so five innings will be his max.
Biagini and the Jays are available at +105 for the full game tonight in Atlanta, and also +105 for the first five innings if you'd prefer.
Slumping: Matt Harvey, New York Mets (2-3, 5.62 ERA, $-414)
The Mets are a trainwreck this season and Matt Harvey hasn't exactly taken the ball and acted like a team leader. Even before he got cucked by Adriana Lima and Julian Edelman, went on a bender, and was suspended by the team for not showing up to work he was pitching like trash.
Harvey has too much talent to piss it away like he has been. He has a Team Win/Loss of 2-5 and a 5.62 ERA in seven starts this season, and over his last three outings he is 0-3 with an ERA of 10.43.
If you think he turns it around today in Phoenix against the Diamondbacks, the Mets are avaliable at +115.
Wednesday's Top Trends
* The Miami Marlins are 4-17 in their last 21 games vs. a right-handed starter. +155 today vs. McCullers and the Astros.
* Over is 13-2-2 in the New York Mets' last 17 road games. Total 9.5 today @ Diamondbacks.
* Under is 15-2-1 in Clayton Kershaw's last 18 starts at AT&T Park vs. Giants. Total 6.5 today.
* The Oakland Athletics are 3-12 in their last 15 road games. -105 today @ Mariners.
Weather to Keep an Eye On
Rain will be a major problem today in Minneapolis where the Minnesota Twins are scheduled to entertain the Colorado Rockies. Thunderstorms, rain all evening, and 15 mile per hour wind blowing in from left field are all in the forecast. We wouldn't be surprised at all if this one gets washed out.
There are three games on today's schedule with big hitter's winds in the forecast:
*Tampa Bay at Cleveland (Total: 9.5) - 15-20 mile per hour wind blowing out to right field.
*Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs (Total: 12.5) - 20-22 mile per hour wind blowing out to left field.
*New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals (Total: 8.5) - 20-25 mile per hour wind blowing out to center field.
Ump of the Day
Tom Hallion: You can expect some runs to be scored this evening in Arlington, Texas as Tom Hallion will be working the plate for the game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Rangers. Hallion's last six games have gone Over the total (6-1 on the season) and he owns a miniscule Strike Percentage of 61.1 (put it on a tee, gentlemen). The Average Total Runs Per Game with Tom Hallion calling balls and strikes in 2017 is 11.0.
The total for today's game is currently set at 10.