Chip Chirimbes
Washington vs. Boston
Play: Washington +4.5
After reeling off six straight playoff victories including the first two games of this series the Celtics have taken in on the chin the last two in Washington. The Wizards won the last two contests (?) by a combined 46 points and that including a 26-0 run in Game 4 as Boston committed 20 turnovers. The flash and glory so far this series has been shinning on Isaiah Thomas who scored 53 points in Game 2 but was held to 32 total points in the two games in Washington as John Wall made his presence known by averaging 27.8 points, 12.3 assists and 2.8 steals. The Wiz have the confidence and man power to over come the Celtics here.
Washington vs. Boston
Play: Washington +4.5
After reeling off six straight playoff victories including the first two games of this series the Celtics have taken in on the chin the last two in Washington. The Wizards won the last two contests (?) by a combined 46 points and that including a 26-0 run in Game 4 as Boston committed 20 turnovers. The flash and glory so far this series has been shinning on Isaiah Thomas who scored 53 points in Game 2 but was held to 32 total points in the two games in Washington as John Wall made his presence known by averaging 27.8 points, 12.3 assists and 2.8 steals. The Wiz have the confidence and man power to over come the Celtics here.
Jeff Benton
Wednesday comp play winner is the Astros on the Run Line to down the Braves for a second straight day.
Atlanta is just not a very good team! The Braves have dropped their last 5 games, and 7 of their last 8 overall as they hit the diamond for Wednesday.
All 5 of their losses during their current skid have come by 2 runs or more, so no reason to think they step up against a team like Houston and keep it close.
Houston has recorded victories in 7 of their last 9 games, with 6 of the wins in their uptick coming by 2 runs or better, including last night's 8-3 pound-job for the Bravos.
It will be Jaime Garcia opposing Joe Musgrove, and the bottom line is Musgrove had better start to deliver - just 1-3 this season, while the team is 22-11! - or he may very well find himself replaced in the rotation.
Tonight against the Braves, Musgrove has the perfect foe to get his ailments healed.
Play Houston on the Run Line.
4* HOUSTON -1.5
Wednesday comp play winner is the Astros on the Run Line to down the Braves for a second straight day.
Atlanta is just not a very good team! The Braves have dropped their last 5 games, and 7 of their last 8 overall as they hit the diamond for Wednesday.
All 5 of their losses during their current skid have come by 2 runs or more, so no reason to think they step up against a team like Houston and keep it close.
Houston has recorded victories in 7 of their last 9 games, with 6 of the wins in their uptick coming by 2 runs or better, including last night's 8-3 pound-job for the Bravos.
It will be Jaime Garcia opposing Joe Musgrove, and the bottom line is Musgrove had better start to deliver - just 1-3 this season, while the team is 22-11! - or he may very well find himself replaced in the rotation.
Tonight against the Braves, Musgrove has the perfect foe to get his ailments healed.
Play Houston on the Run Line.
4* HOUSTON -1.5
Jack Brayman
My Bonus Play for Wednesday is on the New York Mets, over the San Francisco Giants, and in this game I don't want you listing the pitchers.
The Mets aim for a sweep after five pitchers combined to two-hit the Giants in a 6-1 win last night. I don't think it'll be an issue, either, as San Francisco has the worst record in baseball after losing five straight and eight of 10.
The Giants have the worst run differential in the bigs, at minus-69, while they're 5-15 on the highway.
The Mets have won seven of 10, and will have no trouble today.
3* METS
My Bonus Play for Wednesday is on the New York Mets, over the San Francisco Giants, and in this game I don't want you listing the pitchers.
The Mets aim for a sweep after five pitchers combined to two-hit the Giants in a 6-1 win last night. I don't think it'll be an issue, either, as San Francisco has the worst record in baseball after losing five straight and eight of 10.
The Giants have the worst run differential in the bigs, at minus-69, while they're 5-15 on the highway.
The Mets have won seven of 10, and will have no trouble today.
3* METS
Brad Wilton
There will be a game - maybe - where the road team is able to finally break through when these teams meet, but it sure is not looking like it is going to happen in this series!
There have been 4 games played, and the home team has not only won all 4 games played, but has covered in all 4 games played.
A look back shows the home team is now 8-0 both straight up and against the spread this season when the Wizards and the Celtics face one another. 6 of the 8 wins have come by double-digits, the other 2 by a comfortable 9 points.
Washington is just 1-4 both straight up and against the spread on the playoff road, so the choice tonight becomes obvious.
Boston, Boston, Boston!
Home team improves to 9-0 the last 9 meetings both straight up and against the spread.
4* BOSTON
There will be a game - maybe - where the road team is able to finally break through when these teams meet, but it sure is not looking like it is going to happen in this series!
There have been 4 games played, and the home team has not only won all 4 games played, but has covered in all 4 games played.
A look back shows the home team is now 8-0 both straight up and against the spread this season when the Wizards and the Celtics face one another. 6 of the 8 wins have come by double-digits, the other 2 by a comfortable 9 points.
Washington is just 1-4 both straight up and against the spread on the playoff road, so the choice tonight becomes obvious.
Boston, Boston, Boston!
Home team improves to 9-0 the last 9 meetings both straight up and against the spread.
4* BOSTON
SPORTS WAGERS
Minnesota +113 over CHICAGO
We’re not going to go into great detail regarding Phil Hughes because this is not about him. There are times when you just have to plug your nose and hope for the best and this is one of those times. What we know for sure is that the Twinkies are in better form than Chicago and that their offense is vastly superior. We’re counting on both those things to cash this value play ticket.
After a great start, the White Sox have cooled right off with four losses in a row and just two victories over their past nine games. Derek Holland has been Chicago’s best starter thus far with a remarkable 2.02 ERA after six starts but it is not legit. With his stock high, now would be the time to sell on Holland’s surface stats because regression is on the way. Holland has spent 356 days on the DL the past three years. As a result of injuries and ineffectiveness, he has changed up his pitch mix in the early going. He’s throwing a lot fewer sinkers --16% this year compared to 59% the past few years, which is quite a dramatic change. He’s also using a knuckle curve more frequently (25% in 2017--8-11% 2014-16) and so far it’s working. However, it doesn’t take major-leaguers long to discover what a pitcher is doing differently and it’s only a matter of time before recognition is exposed. Furthermore, hit%, strand% and hr/f have helped Holland in his six starts but his xERA of 4.75 speaks volumes about his current skill level. Holland’s 30 K’s in 36 innings isn’t supported by his swing and miss stuff. His K-rate had dropped three straight years, and will likely come down from its current level as well. His weak 36% groundball rate is another warning sign among many others that suggest the clock is about to strike midnight on Derek Holland. The Twins have already seen him once this year so they have a heads up on his new “pitch mix” thus they’ll be much more prepped this time around. By the way, the Twinkies beat him that day and will likely beat him again.
Cleveland -1½ +120 over TORONTO
The Blue Jays are a team in serious trouble for the time being and there is no cure until they get some healthy bodies back. With Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki, Josh Donaldson and perhaps Kendrys Morales all out (Morales left last night’s game with a hamstring issue), the Blue Jays don’t have the firepower to compete with Oakland, let alone the Indians. This makeshift lineup that has to rely on third tier offensive players to deliver will now face a pitcher with filthy stuff.
Danny Salazar suffered a parade of injuries last year that began in June that reads like a big flashing caution sign. Shoulder fatigue, elbow soreness and forearm tightness all played a role in Salazar’s 2016. Despite that, Salazar still managed to raise his K-rate and lower his fly-ball rate, which only adds to his tantalizing intrigue. Salazar will bring a modest 2-3 record with a 4.28 ERA into this, his seventh start of the year. On the road, Salazar has a 1-2 record with a 4.64 ERA and over his last three starts, he’s 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA. Salazar is another perfect example of why we do not buy surface stats. He has 49 K’s in 34 innings with a 20% swing and miss rate. His K’s per nine and swinging strike rate are both tops in the majors. A ridiculously high 40% hit rate (a luck-fueled stat) is the reason for his ERA damage. Salazar can light up the gun with his 96 MPH fastball but it's a devastating change-up (23% swing and miss rate; 20% usage) that allows him to miss bats and maintain an elite strikeout rate. Salazar has three elite pitches and is line to reduce his ERA to inch closer to his 2.82 xERA.
Francisco Liriano is 2-1 at home with a 1.59 ERA. Over his last three starts, Liriano is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA so on paper, he looks stronger than Danny Salazar but it’s not even close. Don’t get us wrong, as Liriano can pitch and when he’s on, he can be very difficult to hit. However, what he can’t do is throw strikes consistently and so a patient team always has a chance to blow him up. In 26 frames, Liriano has walked 20 batters. His WHIP of 1.75 reveals that he is always at the mercy of strand percentage. Even if he’s getting guys out and working out of innings, he’s always deep into counts, which in turn creates early exits due to a high pitch count. Toronto’s taxed bullpen is also unreliable. A lot of things have to go right for the Blue Jays to compete here and if that comes to pass, so be it. More likely is that Cleveland scores four or more and covers this number.
COLORADO -1½ +250 over Chicago
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
6-10 +2.38 units
Pass NHL
Minnesota +113 over CHICAGO
We’re not going to go into great detail regarding Phil Hughes because this is not about him. There are times when you just have to plug your nose and hope for the best and this is one of those times. What we know for sure is that the Twinkies are in better form than Chicago and that their offense is vastly superior. We’re counting on both those things to cash this value play ticket.
After a great start, the White Sox have cooled right off with four losses in a row and just two victories over their past nine games. Derek Holland has been Chicago’s best starter thus far with a remarkable 2.02 ERA after six starts but it is not legit. With his stock high, now would be the time to sell on Holland’s surface stats because regression is on the way. Holland has spent 356 days on the DL the past three years. As a result of injuries and ineffectiveness, he has changed up his pitch mix in the early going. He’s throwing a lot fewer sinkers --16% this year compared to 59% the past few years, which is quite a dramatic change. He’s also using a knuckle curve more frequently (25% in 2017--8-11% 2014-16) and so far it’s working. However, it doesn’t take major-leaguers long to discover what a pitcher is doing differently and it’s only a matter of time before recognition is exposed. Furthermore, hit%, strand% and hr/f have helped Holland in his six starts but his xERA of 4.75 speaks volumes about his current skill level. Holland’s 30 K’s in 36 innings isn’t supported by his swing and miss stuff. His K-rate had dropped three straight years, and will likely come down from its current level as well. His weak 36% groundball rate is another warning sign among many others that suggest the clock is about to strike midnight on Derek Holland. The Twins have already seen him once this year so they have a heads up on his new “pitch mix” thus they’ll be much more prepped this time around. By the way, the Twinkies beat him that day and will likely beat him again.
Cleveland -1½ +120 over TORONTO
The Blue Jays are a team in serious trouble for the time being and there is no cure until they get some healthy bodies back. With Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki, Josh Donaldson and perhaps Kendrys Morales all out (Morales left last night’s game with a hamstring issue), the Blue Jays don’t have the firepower to compete with Oakland, let alone the Indians. This makeshift lineup that has to rely on third tier offensive players to deliver will now face a pitcher with filthy stuff.
Danny Salazar suffered a parade of injuries last year that began in June that reads like a big flashing caution sign. Shoulder fatigue, elbow soreness and forearm tightness all played a role in Salazar’s 2016. Despite that, Salazar still managed to raise his K-rate and lower his fly-ball rate, which only adds to his tantalizing intrigue. Salazar will bring a modest 2-3 record with a 4.28 ERA into this, his seventh start of the year. On the road, Salazar has a 1-2 record with a 4.64 ERA and over his last three starts, he’s 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA. Salazar is another perfect example of why we do not buy surface stats. He has 49 K’s in 34 innings with a 20% swing and miss rate. His K’s per nine and swinging strike rate are both tops in the majors. A ridiculously high 40% hit rate (a luck-fueled stat) is the reason for his ERA damage. Salazar can light up the gun with his 96 MPH fastball but it's a devastating change-up (23% swing and miss rate; 20% usage) that allows him to miss bats and maintain an elite strikeout rate. Salazar has three elite pitches and is line to reduce his ERA to inch closer to his 2.82 xERA.
Francisco Liriano is 2-1 at home with a 1.59 ERA. Over his last three starts, Liriano is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA so on paper, he looks stronger than Danny Salazar but it’s not even close. Don’t get us wrong, as Liriano can pitch and when he’s on, he can be very difficult to hit. However, what he can’t do is throw strikes consistently and so a patient team always has a chance to blow him up. In 26 frames, Liriano has walked 20 batters. His WHIP of 1.75 reveals that he is always at the mercy of strand percentage. Even if he’s getting guys out and working out of innings, he’s always deep into counts, which in turn creates early exits due to a high pitch count. Toronto’s taxed bullpen is also unreliable. A lot of things have to go right for the Blue Jays to compete here and if that comes to pass, so be it. More likely is that Cleveland scores four or more and covers this number.
COLORADO -1½ +250 over Chicago
We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.
Year to date:
6-10 +2.38 units
Pass NHL
Eric Schroeder
On the heels of last night's winner on the Washington Nationals, I'm playing the Los Angeles Dodgers on the Run Line over the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Instead, focus on the fact the Dodgers have won four in a row, while the Pirates have lost three straight. So completing a sweep tonight should not be an issue.
Los Angeles, which has captured nine of its past 11 contests, beat the Bucs 4-3 in 10 innings last night.
The Dodgers kick off a seven-game road trip against the surprising Colorado Rockies on Thursday, so they'll need to carry the momentum through, and bring it with them to Denver.
I like L.A. to win big.
3* DODGERS -1.5
On the heels of last night's winner on the Washington Nationals, I'm playing the Los Angeles Dodgers on the Run Line over the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Instead, focus on the fact the Dodgers have won four in a row, while the Pirates have lost three straight. So completing a sweep tonight should not be an issue.
Los Angeles, which has captured nine of its past 11 contests, beat the Bucs 4-3 in 10 innings last night.
The Dodgers kick off a seven-game road trip against the surprising Colorado Rockies on Thursday, so they'll need to carry the momentum through, and bring it with them to Denver.
I like L.A. to win big.
3* DODGERS -1.5
Will Rogers
Atlanta vs. Houston
Pick: Houston
The set-up: The Houston Astros cruised to an easy 8-3 win Tuesday at home over the Atlanta Braves, who have now lost five in a row while getting outscored 45-15 during their skid. The victory gives the Astros a 22-11 mark, the second-best record in the major leagues behind Baltimore (22-10). Houston concludes it two-game IL series with Atlanta Wednesday afternoon, looking to win for the eighth time in its last 10 contests.
The pitching matchup: Jaime Garcia (1-1, 3.99 ERA) takes the mound for the Braves up against Joe Musgrove (1-3, 5.40 ERA) of the Astros. Garcia's most recent outing was last Thursday in a game halted by rain in the fourth inning. That means he could be a bit fresher because of the decreased workload and note that Garcia had pitched well in his previous three starts, allowing only two runs in each, pitching at least six innings. However, he is 3-6 with a bloated 6.40 ERA in 11 career starts against the Astros (teams are 3-8 ). Musgrove has lost back-to-back starts and each of his last three decisions. He lasted a season-low four innings against Texas in his last outing, as he gave up five runs (four earned) on five hits. Musgrove has not pitched against the Braves.
The pick: The Braves have rarely been competitive in their recent losing slide (see above) and Garcia's poor career mark against the Astros makes for more worries. The Astros are 13-6 at home plus while Musgrove has struggled away from Minute Maid Park ( 6.75 ERA in seven major-league road starts), he's got a 3.04 ERA in 10 career appearances (nine starts) at home.
Atlanta vs. Houston
Pick: Houston
The set-up: The Houston Astros cruised to an easy 8-3 win Tuesday at home over the Atlanta Braves, who have now lost five in a row while getting outscored 45-15 during their skid. The victory gives the Astros a 22-11 mark, the second-best record in the major leagues behind Baltimore (22-10). Houston concludes it two-game IL series with Atlanta Wednesday afternoon, looking to win for the eighth time in its last 10 contests.
The pitching matchup: Jaime Garcia (1-1, 3.99 ERA) takes the mound for the Braves up against Joe Musgrove (1-3, 5.40 ERA) of the Astros. Garcia's most recent outing was last Thursday in a game halted by rain in the fourth inning. That means he could be a bit fresher because of the decreased workload and note that Garcia had pitched well in his previous three starts, allowing only two runs in each, pitching at least six innings. However, he is 3-6 with a bloated 6.40 ERA in 11 career starts against the Astros (teams are 3-8 ). Musgrove has lost back-to-back starts and each of his last three decisions. He lasted a season-low four innings against Texas in his last outing, as he gave up five runs (four earned) on five hits. Musgrove has not pitched against the Braves.
The pick: The Braves have rarely been competitive in their recent losing slide (see above) and Garcia's poor career mark against the Astros makes for more worries. The Astros are 13-6 at home plus while Musgrove has struggled away from Minute Maid Park ( 6.75 ERA in seven major-league road starts), he's got a 3.04 ERA in 10 career appearances (nine starts) at home.
Rocketman
Braves vs. Astros
Play: Astros -1.5
The Atlanta Braves travel to Houston to take on the Astros on Wednesday afternoon. Atlanta is 11-19 SU overall this year While Houston comes in with a 22-11 SU overall record on the season. Jaime Garcia has been a little wild this year with 13 walks compared to 17 strike outs in 29 innings pitched. Garcia is 3-6 with a 6.40 ERA in his 11 career starts vs Houston. Atlanta is scoring only 3 runs per game in inter-league play this year. Atlanta is allowing 5.5 runs per game overall this year, 8.4 runs per game their past 7 games overall, 5.5 runs per game on grass and 8 runs per game in inter-league play this season. Houston is scoring 6.1 runs per game their past 7 games overall and 8 runs per game in inter-league play this season. Houston is allowing only 3.3 runs per game at home this year and 3 runs per game in inter-league play this season. Atlanta is 1-6 so far in May. Atlanta is 4-14 this year after a loss. Houston is 29-6 last 3 years as a home favorite of -175 to -250. We'll recommend a small play on Houston on the Run line today!
Braves vs. Astros
Play: Astros -1.5
The Atlanta Braves travel to Houston to take on the Astros on Wednesday afternoon. Atlanta is 11-19 SU overall this year While Houston comes in with a 22-11 SU overall record on the season. Jaime Garcia has been a little wild this year with 13 walks compared to 17 strike outs in 29 innings pitched. Garcia is 3-6 with a 6.40 ERA in his 11 career starts vs Houston. Atlanta is scoring only 3 runs per game in inter-league play this year. Atlanta is allowing 5.5 runs per game overall this year, 8.4 runs per game their past 7 games overall, 5.5 runs per game on grass and 8 runs per game in inter-league play this season. Houston is scoring 6.1 runs per game their past 7 games overall and 8 runs per game in inter-league play this season. Houston is allowing only 3.3 runs per game at home this year and 3 runs per game in inter-league play this season. Atlanta is 1-6 so far in May. Atlanta is 4-14 this year after a loss. Houston is 29-6 last 3 years as a home favorite of -175 to -250. We'll recommend a small play on Houston on the Run line today!
BLACK WIDOW
Texas Rangers -188
Bets on favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (Texas) with a rested bullpen that threw 2 innings or less in two straight games against an opponent after a game where their bullpen threw 6 or more innings are 75-9 (89.3%, +57.5 units) since 1997. The Rangers got to the Padres' bullpen early in an 11-0 win yesterday. Don't expect Luis Perdomo to go very deep in this one for the Padres either. He is overmatched by Yu Darvish, who is 3-2 with a 2.56 ERA over seven starts this year.
Texas Rangers -188
Bets on favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (Texas) with a rested bullpen that threw 2 innings or less in two straight games against an opponent after a game where their bullpen threw 6 or more innings are 75-9 (89.3%, +57.5 units) since 1997. The Rangers got to the Padres' bullpen early in an 11-0 win yesterday. Don't expect Luis Perdomo to go very deep in this one for the Padres either. He is overmatched by Yu Darvish, who is 3-2 with a 2.56 ERA over seven starts this year.
The Prez
Cardinals at Marlins
Play: Under 8.5
St. Louis and Miami are set to take Marlins Park field tonight at 7:10 p.m. ET with Cards right-hander Lance Lynn (4-1, 2.04 ERA) squaring off against Marlins righty Tom Koehler (1-1, 5.40).
St. Louis starter Lance Lynn has done a terrific job preparing himself for big league hitters coming off Tommy John surgery and sitting out the entire 2016 campaign. Lynn has dropped just one game in 2017 and aims to register his fifth straight today in Miami. Miami Marlins on Wednesday night.
Lynn is off a six inning performance where he allowed four hits, two walks and struck out six while allowing zero earned runs. Lynn's 2.04 ERA is better than his 4.34 FIP over his 30-plus innings this season and while his velocity is down a notch it is so with the purpose of having better traditional command than most pitchers coming off TJS.
Miami sends veteran Tom Koehler to the hill. The right-hander's last turn saw him allow three runs at Citi Field against the Mets. The outing was the fourth time in five starts that Koehler has allowed three runs or less. The Marlins righty has traditionally been better in South Beach than on the road. The pitcher-friendly confines of Marlins Park assists him in keeping his fly ball tendencies in the park.
Koehler is 1-3 with an ugly 7.84 ERA in four lifetime starts versus the Cardinals but this isn't your father's St Louis offense of years past and Lynn has never lost to the Marlins in six career appearances (four starts) going 4-0 with a solid 3.04 ERA vs. the Fish.
Cardinals at Marlins
Play: Under 8.5
St. Louis and Miami are set to take Marlins Park field tonight at 7:10 p.m. ET with Cards right-hander Lance Lynn (4-1, 2.04 ERA) squaring off against Marlins righty Tom Koehler (1-1, 5.40).
St. Louis starter Lance Lynn has done a terrific job preparing himself for big league hitters coming off Tommy John surgery and sitting out the entire 2016 campaign. Lynn has dropped just one game in 2017 and aims to register his fifth straight today in Miami. Miami Marlins on Wednesday night.
Lynn is off a six inning performance where he allowed four hits, two walks and struck out six while allowing zero earned runs. Lynn's 2.04 ERA is better than his 4.34 FIP over his 30-plus innings this season and while his velocity is down a notch it is so with the purpose of having better traditional command than most pitchers coming off TJS.
Miami sends veteran Tom Koehler to the hill. The right-hander's last turn saw him allow three runs at Citi Field against the Mets. The outing was the fourth time in five starts that Koehler has allowed three runs or less. The Marlins righty has traditionally been better in South Beach than on the road. The pitcher-friendly confines of Marlins Park assists him in keeping his fly ball tendencies in the park.
Koehler is 1-3 with an ugly 7.84 ERA in four lifetime starts versus the Cardinals but this isn't your father's St Louis offense of years past and Lynn has never lost to the Marlins in six career appearances (four starts) going 4-0 with a solid 3.04 ERA vs. the Fish.
Bob Balfe
Nationals -1.5 +125
The Nationals have not faced a lot of left handed pitching this year, but have hit it well when they have. If Strasburg can dominate like he always does this should be a game in which Washington jumps out to an early lead and coasts to the finish line. This money line is too high so we will go with the run line with a good return if it can cash.
Nationals -1.5 +125
The Nationals have not faced a lot of left handed pitching this year, but have hit it well when they have. If Strasburg can dominate like he always does this should be a game in which Washington jumps out to an early lead and coasts to the finish line. This money line is too high so we will go with the run line with a good return if it can cash.
Tony Finn
Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay -190
Kansas City and Tampa Bay take to Tropicana Field to play the third game of a four game series. The Royals have won the first two and are looking to continue their recent success and reenter the American League Central race. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET in St. Petersburg, Florida with Royals RH Jason Hammel (1-3, 5.53 ERA) and Rays RH Chris Archer (2-1, 3.57) slated to start for their respective teams.
Right-hander Jason Hammel continues to be an enigma with inconsistent performances. Hammel, now 1-3 with a 5.53 ERA, worked exclusively from the stretch for the first time in his career in his last start. When he asked pitching coach Dave Eiland his thoughts about it, Eiland told the media that he expressed, "You can stand on your head if you want to."
Last June, as a member of the Chicago Cubs, Hammel’s ERA was a solid 2.58 but his underlying peripherals suggested he was pitching above expectations, e.g. with a 4.22 SIERA. Hammel has never been a pitcher who was efficient preventing him from working deep into games and the reason for this was that strikeouts were his M.O. Last year with the Cubs his strikeout rate fell to 20.6%, which is below league average.
Rays righty Chris Archer has bounced back from a disappointing 2016 campaign. The young Rays starter registered a season-high 11 strikeouts against Toronto in his last turn but did not factor in the decision. Archer is winless in his last four turns but during that span has had starts, like his last, in which he allowed just one run over 7 1/3 frames against the Blue Jays and an outing versus the Tigers in which he went five innings and gave up four earned runs on 7 hits and nine punch outs.
Archer may have had suffered had a down season in 2016 with an league average ERA (4.02) but his skill set is elite. Archer's career 47% ground ball rate, 11% SwStr, and only 7% walks per nine innings is All-Star like.
Archer defeats the pedestrian offense of the Royals today and earns his first ever (0-4 with a 5.63 ERA in five lifetime starts) win over Kansas City.
Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay -190
Kansas City and Tampa Bay take to Tropicana Field to play the third game of a four game series. The Royals have won the first two and are looking to continue their recent success and reenter the American League Central race. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET in St. Petersburg, Florida with Royals RH Jason Hammel (1-3, 5.53 ERA) and Rays RH Chris Archer (2-1, 3.57) slated to start for their respective teams.
Right-hander Jason Hammel continues to be an enigma with inconsistent performances. Hammel, now 1-3 with a 5.53 ERA, worked exclusively from the stretch for the first time in his career in his last start. When he asked pitching coach Dave Eiland his thoughts about it, Eiland told the media that he expressed, "You can stand on your head if you want to."
Last June, as a member of the Chicago Cubs, Hammel’s ERA was a solid 2.58 but his underlying peripherals suggested he was pitching above expectations, e.g. with a 4.22 SIERA. Hammel has never been a pitcher who was efficient preventing him from working deep into games and the reason for this was that strikeouts were his M.O. Last year with the Cubs his strikeout rate fell to 20.6%, which is below league average.
Rays righty Chris Archer has bounced back from a disappointing 2016 campaign. The young Rays starter registered a season-high 11 strikeouts against Toronto in his last turn but did not factor in the decision. Archer is winless in his last four turns but during that span has had starts, like his last, in which he allowed just one run over 7 1/3 frames against the Blue Jays and an outing versus the Tigers in which he went five innings and gave up four earned runs on 7 hits and nine punch outs.
Archer may have had suffered had a down season in 2016 with an league average ERA (4.02) but his skill set is elite. Archer's career 47% ground ball rate, 11% SwStr, and only 7% walks per nine innings is All-Star like.
Archer defeats the pedestrian offense of the Royals today and earns his first ever (0-4 with a 5.63 ERA in five lifetime starts) win over Kansas City.
