Wednesday 4/26/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trends - San Diego at Arizona


W/L Trends


San Diego
•Padres are 16-36 in their last 52 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Padres are 16-40 in their last 56 during game 3 of a series.
• Padres are 2-5 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Padres are 14-39 in their last 53 road games.
• Padres are 14-41 in their last 55 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Padres are 1-6 in their last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Padres are 1-7 in their last 8 games following a loss.
• Padres are 1-8 in their last 9 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Padres are 0-4 in their last 4 overall.
• Padres are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• Padres are 0-6 in their last 6 games after losing the first 2 games of a series.
• Padres are 0-4 in their last 4 games on grass.



Arizona
•Diamondbacks are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League West.
• Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
• Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.
• Diamondbacks are 6-2 in their last 8 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Diamondbacks are 19-7 in their last 26 home games.
• Diamondbacks are 9-4 in their last 13 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Diamondbacks are 11-25 in their last 36 Wednesday games.
• Diamondbacks are 6-1 in Godleys last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Diamondbacks are 5-1 in Godleys last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Diamondbacks are 4-1 in Godleys last 5 starts during game 3 of a series.


OU Trends


San Diego
•Over is 4-0-1 in Padres last 5 overall.
• Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 road games.
• Over is 4-0-1 in Padres last 5 on grass.
• Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• Over is 3-0-1 in Padres last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 6-1 in Padres last 7 games following a loss.
• Under is 5-1 in Padres last 6 Wednesday games.
• Over is 5-1 in Padres last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 5-1 in Padres last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Over is 3-1-1 in Padres last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 9-4 in Padres last 13 road games vs. a right-handed starter.



Arizona
•Under is 10-1 in Diamondbacks last 11 during game 3 of a series.
• Over is 4-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 overall.
• Over is 4-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 on grass.
• Under is 4-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 Wednesday games.
• Over is 4-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 vs. National League West.
• Over is 39-12-2 in Diamondbacks last 53 home games.
• Over is 18-6-2 in Diamondbacks last 26 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Over is 21-8-1 in Diamondbacks last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• Under is 5-2 in Diamondbacks last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
• Over is 36-15-2 in Diamondbacks last 53 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Over is 7-3-1 in Diamondbacks last 11 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 18-8-3 in Diamondbacks last 29 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 6-0 in Godleys last 6 starts on grass.
• Over is 4-0 in Godleys last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Over is 4-0 in Godleys last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Over is 6-0 in Godleys last 6 starts overall.
• Over is 4-0 in Godleys last 4 home starts.
• Over is 5-1 in Godleys last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.


Head to Head


•Over is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings in Arizona.
• Padres are 2-7 in the last 9 meetings.
• Padres are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in Arizona.



Umpire Trends - Tom Woodring


•Over is 3-0-1 in Woodrings last 4 games behind home plate vs. Arizona.
• Over is 7-1-1 in Woodrings last 9 Wednesday games behind home plate.
• Home team is 9-3 in Woodrings last 12 Wednesday games behind home plate.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trends - Oakland at LA Angels


W/L Trends


Oakland
•Athletics are 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Athletics are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• Athletics are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.
• Athletics are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. American League West.
• Athletics are 5-2 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Athletics are 5-2 in their last 7 overall.
• Athletics are 5-2 in their last 7 games on grass.
• Athletics are 5-2 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
• Athletics are 3-9 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
• Athletics are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a loss.
• Athletics are 4-1 in Manaeas last 5 Wednesday starts.
• Athletics are 2-5 in Manaeas last 7 starts.
• Athletics are 2-5 in Manaeas last 7 starts on grass.
• Athletics are 3-9 in Manaeas last 12 road starts.
• Athletics are 2-7 in Manaeas last 9 starts vs. American League West.
• Athletics are 1-4 in Manaeas last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
• Athletics are 1-4 in Manaeas last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Athletics are 1-4 in Manaeas last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
• Athletics are 1-5 in Manaeas last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Athletics are 1-6 in Manaeas last 7 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Athletics are 1-6 in Manaeas last 7 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Athletics are 0-5 in Manaeas last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.



LA Angels
•Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Angels are 14-5 in their last 19 home games.
• Angels are 8-3 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• Angels are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Angels are 9-4 in their last 13 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Angels are 16-38 in their last 54 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Angels are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. American League West.
• Angels are 2-5 in their last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Angels are 4-10 in their last 14 overall.
• Angels are 4-10 in their last 14 games on grass.
• Angels are 5-0 in Shoemakers last 5 home starts.
• Angels are 4-1 in Shoemakers last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
• Angels are 4-1 in Shoemakers last 5 starts vs. American League West.
• Angels are 6-2 in Shoemakers last 8 starts.
• Angels are 5-2 in Shoemakers last 7 starts on grass.
• Angels are 4-9 in Shoemakers last 13 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Angels are 6-21 in Shoemakers last 27 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
• Angels are 1-4 in Shoemakers last 5 Wednesday starts.


OU Trends


Oakland
•Under is 5-1 in Athletics last 6 road games.
• Over is 5-1 in Athletics last 6 Wednesday games.
• Over is 5-1 in Athletics last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• Under is 5-1 in Athletics last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
• Under is 8-2 in Athletics last 10 games following a loss.
• Under is 4-1 in Athletics last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Over is 6-2 in Athletics last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 9-4 in Athletics last 13 vs. a team with a losing record.
• Under is 5-1 in Manaeas last 6 road starts.
• Under is 4-1 in Manaeas last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
• Under is 7-2 in Manaeas last 9 starts vs. American League West.
• Under is 5-2 in Manaeas last 7 starts on grass.
• Under is 5-2 in Manaeas last 7 starts overall.
• Under is 7-3 in Manaeas last 10 starts with 4 days of rest.
• Under is 7-3 in Manaeas last 10 starts vs. a team with a losing record.



LA Angels
•Under is 2-0-2 in Angels last 4 home games.
• Under is 5-0 in Angels last 5 vs. American League West.
• Under is 8-1 in Angels last 9 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1-2 in Angels last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• Under is 7-2 in Angels last 9 games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Under is 6-2 in Angels last 8 Wednesday games.
• Under is 8-3 in Angels last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Under is 23-9-1 in Angels last 33 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 5-2 in Angels last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 39-18-3 in Angels last 60 on grass.
• Under is 40-19-4 in Angels last 63 overall.
• Over is 4-0 in Shoemakers last 4 home starts.
• Over is 4-1 in Shoemakers last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in Shoemakers last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 10-3-2 in Shoemakers last 15 starts during game 2 of a series.
• Under is 6-2 in Shoemakers last 8 Wednesday starts.
• Under is 6-2-1 in Shoemakers last 9 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 5-2 in Shoemakers last 7 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 9-4 in Shoemakers last 13 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.


Head to Head


•Over is 4-0 in Shoemakers last 4 home starts vs. Athletics.
• Angels are 5-1 in Shoemakers last 6 starts vs. Athletics.
• Over is 17-4-1 in the last 22 meetings in Los Angeles.
• Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
• Over is 7-2-1 in Shoemakers last 10 starts vs. Athletics.
• Athletics are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings.
• Athletics are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles.



Umpire Trends - Jerry Layne


•Under is 4-0 in Laynes last 4 Wednesday games behind home plate vs. Los Angeles.
• Over is 7-0 in Laynes last 7 Wednesday games behind home plate vs. Oakland.
• Over is 21-5-1 in Laynes last 27 games behind home plate vs. Oakland.
• Under is 4-1 in Laynes last 5 games behind home plate vs. Los Angeles.
• Home team is 4-1 in Laynes last 5 Wednesday games behind home plate vs. Oakland.
• Under is 7-2 in Laynes last 9 games behind home plate.
• Athletics are 6-13 in their last 19 games with Layne behind home plate.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trends - LA Dodgers at San Francisco


W/L Trends


LA Dodgers
•Dodgers are 7-2 in their last 9 Wednesday games.
• Dodgers are 10-3 in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
• Dodgers are 12-5 in their last 17 during game 3 of a series.
• Dodgers are 2-5 in their last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Dodgers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• Dodgers are 1-6 in their last 7 games following a win.
• Dodgers are 1-4 in Woods last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Dodgers are 1-4 in Woods last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Dodgers are 0-5 in Woods last 5 road starts.
• Dodgers are 0-4 in Woods last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Dodgers are 0-4 in Woods last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
• Dodgers are 0-5 in Woods last 5 starts.
• Dodgers are 0-5 in Woods last 5 starts on grass.
• Dodgers are 0-5 in Woods last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.



San Francisco
•Giants are 15-5 in their last 20 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Giants are 2-6 in their last 8 Wednesday games.
• Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
• Giants are 1-5 in their last 6 overall.
• Giants are 1-5 in their last 6 games on grass.
• Giants are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. National League West.
• Giants are 1-6 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• Giants are 1-6 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Giants are 0-6 in their last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Giants are 4-0 in Cuetos last 4 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Giants are 8-1 in Cuetos last 9 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Giants are 6-1 in Cuetos last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
• Giants are 6-1 in Cuetos last 7 starts vs. National League West.
• Giants are 6-1 in Cuetos last 7 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Giants are 16-3 in Cuetos last 19 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Giants are 17-4 in Cuetos last 21 starts with 4 days of rest.
• Giants are 4-1 in Cuetos last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Giants are 4-1 in Cuetos last 5 home starts.
• Giants are 7-2 in Cuetos last 9 starts during game 3 of a series.
• Giants are 7-2 in Cuetos last 9 starts.
• Giants are 7-2 in Cuetos last 9 starts on grass.


OU Trends


LA Dodgers
•Under is 7-0 in Dodgers last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Under is 4-0 in Dodgers last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 7-1-1 in Dodgers last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Under is 5-1 in Dodgers last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 during game 3 of a series.
• Under is 7-2 in Dodgers last 9 overall.
• Under is 7-2 in Dodgers last 9 on grass.
• Under is 7-2 in Dodgers last 9 vs. National League West.
• Under is 21-6-3 in Dodgers last 30 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
• Under is 10-3 in Dodgers last 13 road games.
• Over is 3-1-1 in Dodgers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• Under is 5-2 in Dodgers last 7 games following a win.
• Under is 5-2 in Dodgers last 7 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 5-2 in Dodgers last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Under is 28-13-3 in Dodgers last 44 Wednesday games.
• Under is 4-0 in Woods last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
• Under is 6-1 in Woods last 7 starts on grass.
• Over is 5-1 in Woods last 6 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 5-1 in Woods last 6 starts overall.
• Over is 4-1 in Woods last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Over is 3-1-1 in Woods last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 7-3 in Woods last 10 road starts.



San Francisco
•Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
• Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 home games.
• Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Under is 5-0 in Giants last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 6-1 in Giants last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Under is 8-2 in Giants last 10 Wednesday games.
• Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 11-3 in Giants last 14 overall.
• Under is 11-3 in Giants last 14 on grass.
• Under is 9-3 in Giants last 12 vs. National League West.
• Over is 7-3 in Giants last 10 during game 3 of a series.
• Under is 9-4-1 in Giants last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
• Over is 4-0 in Cuetos last 4 starts on grass.
• Over is 4-0 in Cuetos last 4 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 4-0-1 in Cuetos last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Over is 4-0 in Cuetos last 4 starts overall.
• Over is 5-0 in Cuetos last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
• Over is 5-0-1 in Cuetos last 6 home starts.
• Over is 5-0 in Cuetos last 5 starts vs. National League West.
• Over is 4-1 in Cuetos last 5 starts with 4 days of rest.
• Over is 4-1-1 in Cuetos last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Over is 4-1 in Cuetos last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 6-2 in Cuetos last 8 starts during game 3 of a series.
• Over is 3-1-1 in Cuetos last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.


Head to Head


•Under is 4-0 in Cuetos last 4 starts vs. Dodgers.
• Under is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings in San Francisco.
• Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
• Dodgers are 5-17 in the last 22 meetings in San Francisco.
• Dodgers are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings.



Umpire Trends - Bill Miller


•Road team is 5-0 in Millers last 5 games behind home plate vs. San Francisco.
• Road team is 5-1 in Millers last 6 Wednesday games behind home plate.
• Under is 5-1 in Millers last 6 Wednesday games behind home plate.
• Under is 5-1 in Millers last 6 Wednesday games behind home plate vs. Los Angeles.
• Under is 25-7-1 in Millers last 33 games behind home plate vs. Los Angeles.
• Road team is 5-2 in Millers last 7 games behind home plate vs. Los Angeles.
• Dodgers are 2-5 in their last 7 games with Miller behind home plate.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Williams
MLB | Apr 26, 2017
Rays vs. Orioles Orioles
-145 at 5DIMES
1* on Orioles -145

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jack Jones
MLB | Apr 26, 2017
Astros vs. Indians
Indians -105 at GTBETS

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Cleveland Indians -105

The Cleveland Indians have lost two straight and will be motivated to get back in the win column tonight. I think they'll do just that behind Trevor Bauer, who is coming off his best start of the season in which he allowed two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings with 7 strikeouts in a 6-2 win at Minnesota.

What stood out to me most about this game is that Bauer has never lost to the Astros. Indeed, he's a perfect 5-0 with a 1.97 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in five career starts against them. Look for him to improve to 6-0 tonight.

The markets are high on Lance McCullers, but he's not nearly as effective on the road. He is 3-8 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.580 WHIP in 17 career road starts. McCulleers gave up five runs and two homers in 4 1/3 innings at Oakland in his lone road start this season.

The Astros are 4-12 in McCuller's last 16 road starts. The Indians are 7-3 in Bauer's last 10 home starts. Cleveland is 36-17 in its last 53 games vs. a right-handed starters, including 11-4 in its last 15 home games vs. righties. Bet the Indians Wednesday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Black Widow
MLB | Apr 26, 2017
Cubs vs. Pirates
Cubs -153 at BETONLINE

Widow's Free Pick: Chicago Cubs -153

Bets against home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (Pittsburgh) with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game, with a cold starting pitcher whose WHIP is 2.000 or higher over his last 3 starts are 48-9 (84.2%, +34.6 units) over the last five seasons. We'll gladly back Jon Lester (2.66 ERA) over Tyler Glasnow (7.94 ERA) tonight. Give me the Cubs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mark Franco
NHL | Apr 26, 2017
Oilers vs. Ducks
Ducks -127 at BMAKER

NHL Free Pick:

Ducks – 127

After making short work of one Alberta representative, the Pacific Division champion Anaheim Ducks would love to take the first step in repeating the feat against the other on Wednesday as they begin their second-round series against the visiting Edmonton Oilers. Anaheim is riding an 18-game point streak (15-0-3) and collected a point in four of five encounters (2-1-2) with Edmonton.

Although Anaheim's defense received a jolt from the offensive contributions of rookie Shea Theodore (two goals, three assists) in the first round, the back line is expected to be strengthened all the more by the potential returns of All-Star Cam Fowler and top-four Sami Vatanen.

Oilers are 17-40 in their last 57 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Ducks are 15-2 in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Price
MLB | Apr 26, 2017
Braves vs. Mets
Braves +183 at 5DIMES

Dave's Wednesday Bonus Play:

1* on Atlanta Braves +183

The Key: I like the price we are getting with the Atlanta Braves today as underdogs considering they have their ace on the mound tonight. Julio Teheran is 1-1 with a 3.52 ERA in 4 starts this year, including 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 2 road starts, pitching 13 shutout innings away from home. Teheran is 7-3 with a 1.89 ERA in 15 lifetime starts vs. New York as well. Noah Syndergaard is a stud, but surprisingly he's never beaten the Braves. Syndergaard is 0-1 with a 3.92 ERA in 4 lifetime starts vs. Atlanta. The Braves are 7-2 in their last 9 meetings in New York. Take Atlanta.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Rickenbach
NHL | Apr 26, 2017
Oilers vs. Ducks
Oilers +119 at BETONLINE

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach Wednesday NHL Free Pick Edmonton Oilers Money Line (+) @ Anaheim Ducks @ 10:30 ET: Layoffs can be tough on a hockey team and we saw that this season with the mandatory bye week causing all sorts of issues when teams came back from the bye and got clobbered. Certainly playoff time is not exactly the same situation as the way the new bye week worked in regular season action but, the point is, Anaheim may not be as sharp as they would like to be tonight as they have not played since last Wednesday! After a full week off, even though the Ducks were able to get a little healthier, the trouble is that they could be a little "off" in terms of their timing tonight after sweeping the Flames in Week 1. The Oilers were ultra impressive in the first round too as they got by the Sharks. The benefit for Edmonton as they have had some time off but certainly not too much as they enter this game off of 3 days of rest. That said, don't be surprised if the Oilers prove to be the sharper team tonight. Edmonton was 4-2 when playing with 3 or more days of rest this season and 19-8 when off of a win by a multiple-goal margin. The Ducks went just 10-14 this season when off of a win by 2 goals or more and, again, the full week off is likely to prove to be too much. Grab the underdog value here. Free Pick on EDMONTON OILERS money line late Wednesday night. Best of luck, Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WAGERS

Washington to win East +165

The Capitals are in the -135 to -140 range to beat Pittsburgh in the second round but instead of spotting a price, we’ll take the Caps to advance to the next round, where they will be a much bigger favorite over New York or Ottawa, especially if they dispose of the Penguins quickly and then we’ll have Washington +165 in that series. At that point, we can always buy back the next opponent and free roll on the Caps, which is our plan for now. Therefore, this is a bet on Washington to defeat Pittsburgh to set up a free-roll for the East Finals.

What you are going to read or hear about over and over is Pittsburgh’s utter dominance against Washington over the last decade. Using that useless information to make a selection in this series is an exercise in futility. Of course the Penguins can win this series but if they do, it’s not because they beat Washington nine years ago.

Another thing you are going to read or hear about is the Capitals difficulty in disposing of the Maple Leafs. Well, let us turn that around. Toronto might have beaten almost any other team in the first round. They were loose, they’re extremely talented and they got outstanding goaltending from Fredrick Andersen for most of the series. The Capitals had to deal with speed, talent and an abundance of pressure to get by the first round. They answered the call in all areas and they also did not allow the Maple Leafs to sustain pressure in their end. For the most part, Toronto was one and done on far too many occasions. That first round prepped the Capitals well for what is in store for them here. The focus on the first round was how well the Maple Leafs played but let’s give some credit to the Capitals, as they were tremendous and also stepped up in the OT periods when they had to. Combine Washington’s difficulty with Toronto with Pittsburgh easily defeating the Jackets in five games and the market perception on this series is off.

Indeed the Pens defeated Columbus in five games but Pittsburgh was the second best team on the ice in all five games. We’re not going to bore you with all the stats but Columbus out-chanced, outshot, outworked and out-everythinged the Penguins in the first round and most of it was by a wide margin. The only reason that the Penguins aren’t watching round two from the rail is because Sergei Bobrovsky was atrocious. Had the Jackets switched to Joonas Korpisalo in Game 2, Pittsburgh would be golfing right now.

We often suggest not putting a lot of emphasis on one series or one game but it’s more than that. You see, the last repeat winners of the Cup were the Detroit Red Wings in 1997 and 1998, almost 20 years ago. That shows how difficult it is to repeat because playing well into June will burn out any team. Hockey is a physical, grueling game and to not have a significant break and then perform brilliantly in back-to-back playoff years is near impossible. We all saw the Sharks (last year’s other Stanley Cup finalist) bow out early this year and Pittsburgh should have been right behind them. The Penguins will not run into weak goaltending this series. Furthermore, the Penguins have to rely on Marc Andre Fleury and he’s always just a bad goal away from melting down entirely.

In the 2016 playoffs, Kris Letang exceeded 30 minutes of ice time in four of five games against the Capitals, including more than 35 minutes of regulation in Game 2. There will be no Kris Letang this year and that puts the Penguins at a disadvantage right off the bat. If anyone watched the Penguins trying to break out of their own end against the Jackets in the first round, it was painful. They were a mess and if they don’t or can’t clean that up, this series might be over quickly. The Pens might also be missing Carl Hagelin and Chris Kunitz for a game or longer and those role players are a big part of Pittsburgh’s success.

One can never count the Penguins out but the Capitals are hungrier and they’re better than Pittsburgh when the Pens don’t have Letang and are forced to use their backup goaltender. There is also the unlikely task of repeating that means so much more than Pittsburgh’s playoff domination over Washington. Teams’ still need a healthy dose of speed, skill and finesse to win at this time of year, but physicality becomes a big part of winning too. That is especially so on the forecheck, where a forward can disrupt a breakout with a big hit and cause a turnover. A disruptive hit early in a game can cause defensive indecision later and those turnovers and scoring chances keep coming. That’s what Columbus did to Pittsburgh and that’s what is likely to go down in this series too. The domination ends here.

We are going to make this a 3-unit bet with the intention of buying back one unit on the underdog in the next series should Washington get by Pittsburgh. That will set up a near free roll for 2 units at +165 in the East Finals.

Series - OTTAWA +135 over N.Y. Rangers

Series bet. The Rangers can win this series for sure. New York’s strength is that they can score goals and when you can score goals, you always have a chance. Rick Nash was a beast against Montreal. Despite scoring just two goals and an assist, he drove hard to the net and set the tone up front. Derek Stepan and Chris Kreider struggled against Montreal but it would be unreasonable to expect that pair to struggle in this series too. They are too good to not be noticeable. New York defeated Montreal and Carey Price in six games despite some big names not producing. Jimmy Vesey showed he was ready for prime time. Playing with a snarl and bite, he made plays the entire series and of course there is the usual suspects like Mats Zuccarello, J.T. Miller and Mika Zibanejad. Pavel Buchnevich and Michael Grabner round out a group of forwards that is as dangerous as any group in the game. Scoring goals is not the problem. The problem is puck possession.

New York remains the worst puck possession team in the playoffs but the Canadiens were not able to exploit that weakness because they are not a “cycle” team. The Canadiens do not have the big bodies going into the corners and out-battling the opposition for the puck. They are more of a finesse team. While the Rangers defense is better this year with the additions of Brendan Smith and Brady Skjei, the analytics say that they’re just very slightly better than a year ago. The Senators just need to watch film of the Rags in last year’s playoffs and they’ll have the blueprint to bury them.

The Senators raw Corsi was better than New York’s plus they were better in the final 25 games of the regular season as well as in the first round of the playoffs. What’s significant about that is Ottawa played a monster possession team in Boston in the first round and won the possession battle. Winning the possession battle against New York absolutely figures to be easier.

As far as talent up front, the Sens can match the Rags line for line and then some. The Ryan Dzingel, Kyle Turris, Alexandre Burrows line is big, tough and dangerous. The Clarke MacArthur, Derick Brassard, Bobby Ryan line is big, tough, dangerous and quick. MacArthur returning and having an impact not only gives the Sens a massive boost, it’s also one more problem that the Rags have to deal with. The Mike Hoffman, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Mark Stone line is creative, quick, extremely talented and so damn dangerous. That third line might be the most underrated threesome in the game. Finally, there is the fourth line of Viktor Stalberg, Zack Smith and Tommy Wingels or Tom Pyatt. Both Stalberg and Smith are top nine forwards on 95% of the teams in this league but on Ottawa they are fourth line players and we haven’t even mentioned the best player in the series yet. Ottawa has Erik Karlsson and New York doesn’t. Ottawa has the best skater in this series, and sometimes that can make all the difference. Alex Novet of Hockey Graphs has a great article on why hockey is a “strong link” game, making Karlsson more important than this market realizes.

Speaking of the market, we have to question once again why the Senators are a dog again. They have home ice advantage, they have the best player in the series, they almost swept the Bruins and they have zero disadvantages in this series. That brings us back to value where the market has this series wrongly priced. Ottawa continues to be the most disrespected team in the market and it’s because they are Canada’s “small market” team that few watched during the regular season while the Rangers are in the biggest market on the continent. If all things bounce equally, Ottawa should have an easier time disposing of the Rags than they did disposing of the Bruins.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WAGERS

Nashville +100 over ST. LOUIS

OT included. Here’s what Scott Burnside (ESPN Senior Hockey Writer) wrote about the Blues after their first round victory over Minnesota:

“The Blues were a machine while dismantling the favored Minnesota Wild in five games, and they get center Paul Stastny back for Round 2”.

That’s actually funny. A machine? Dismantling? The dictionary defines dismantling as: to take apart so that it is in separate pieces. :to destroy (something) in an orderly way.

Once again, results have more emphasis on the market than performance. We have to question whether Scott Burnside even watched one period of that series because if he had, he could not have used the words machine and dismantled. The only thing that the Blues dismantled was the luck meter that was heavily on their side. In the five games against Minnesota, St. Louis was the second best team on the ice in all five games. The Blue Notes were under siege the entire series and the only thing that bailed them out was puck luck. In the eight first-round series, no team was dominated more than the Blues. Jake Allen was tremendous and while he stole every game and can do the same thing here, we’re not interested in spotting a price with a team that is going to need more luck to win. St. Louis will very likely be the second best team on the ice again in every period of every game.

Nashville limited Chicago to three goals in four games. They dominated a team that every expert said could not be dominated. The Preds defense which includes P.K. Subban, offensive catalyst Roman Josi, the emerging Ryan Ellis, big-bodied Mattias Ekholm and steady veterans Matt Irwin and Yannick Weber, were a machine against Chicago. That’s a MACHINE. The Preds kept the Blackhawks on the outside all series long and figure to have even more success against the Blues weaker offense. While anything can happen here, we have to stick to playing value and one thing we know for sure is that Nashville is the superior team and beating Chicago gives them a ton of confidence going into this series. By contrast and despite winning, every player on that Blues’ bench knows they were badly outplayed in round one and that can’t be a very good feeling at all. We also know that the value is on this superior dog.

Note: We're going to wait on this one until later in the day when the line settles. There is a bunch of money coming in on the dog and that concerns us, especially since Sportsinteraction has the Preds favored. We may lay off this game if money continues to pour in on the Preds but we'll update it either way around dinner time. We may also sit it out, hope for St. Louis to win and then come back with an updated series wager on the Preds.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WAGERS

Cincinnati +118 over MILWAUKEE

Rookie Davis (RHP) was drafted by the New York Yankees in the 14th round of the 2011 MLB Draft. He spent 2012-2015 in New York’s farm system ascending as high as Double A. Davis’ 2015 was viewed as a breakout for the big right-hander. In 19 starts for High-A Tampa, he went 6-6 with a 3.70 ERA. Davis struck out 9.71 batters per nine during that stretch. By the end of 2015, he was in Double A. Prior to the 2016 season, the Yankees shipped Davis to Cincinnati (along with Caleb Cotham, Eric Jagielo and Tony Renda) for Aroldis Chapman. Davis spent most of last season at Double A, but he did get the call to Triple A in August. He threw 125 innings with a 3.82 ERA between both levels, but his strikeout totals fell off (5.5 K’s/9). Some of that could be attributed to a groin injury. Davis’ five starts in Triple A were particularly underwhelming. He surrendered at least four earned runs in three of those starts.

The first thing that jumps out about Davis is his size. He’s listed at 6’5, 255, and can be an imposing presence on the mound. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90s, and this past spring he was clocked hitting 96 mph. The velocity comes easy out of his hand, and he commands the pitch well. Davis employs a solid 12-5 curveball that can miss bats. Davis also uses a changeup, but that pitch has been described as “below average.” It was clear to Davis that something was going to have to change in his repertoire if he wanted to reach the majors so Davis incorporated a slider into his pitch mix. He debuted the offering on March 1, and he’s hopeful it might be the missing piece to his game. He did strikeout 17 batters in 15.2 innings in the spring. He’s looked hittable in his two starts at this level so far but he’s also looked very good. Davis will learn as he goes, thus he’ll likely be hit and miss all year but we’re willing to gamble with him here because the Crew are putting up unsustainable numbers that will correct. Furthermore, Wily Peralta (RHP) is almost always a good fade.

Peralta garnered some attention after his strong debut (0 ER, 5/1 K/BB in 5 innings). However, he didn't miss many bats in that game (8% swing and miss rate), nor did he pound the strike zone (38% ball%). Those are two indications that Peralta isn't a transformed pitcher and it’s getting worse. His swing and miss rate is now down to 6%. He has a BB/K split of 9/13 in 21 innings. His xERA is 5.77 and while he throws hard (96 MPH), he has little to no movement on his stuff. Backing Wily “Fastball Down the Middle” Peralta is not likely to work out well.

Kansas City +123 over CHICAGO

After 10 starts in 2016, Nate Karns (RHP) was 5-1 with a 3.43 ERA for the Mariners. But after a rough June, he lost his rotation spot and then a back strain in late July shelved him for the rest of the season. After being traded to the Royals, Karns impressed in spring training, winning a rotation spot heading into the season but he hasn’t been able to find that same magic in the early going. With a 6.53 ERA after three starts, it means better prices. Don’t pay much heed to Karns’ post-May performance, as it's a 37 innings small sample. His 7.60 ERA over that span featured an unlucky 55% strand rate and unlucky 38% hit rate. His first three starts this year is much of the same. With a high swing and miss rate, he can be counted on for a high strikeout rate and whenever a pitcher can strike out guys, he has a chance to do well. Walks are really the only issue here and if Karns cleans that up, he’ll be a rock in that Royals rotation.

In the midst of a Mark Buehrle-esque run as the South Side's proficient, easily-projected lefty, Jose Quintana (LHP) continues to throw strikes with just enough swing-and-miss stuff with little regard to batters' handedness or batted ball outcomes. Just like we didn't spot a tag when Buehrle pitched, we’re not interested in spotting one with Quintana either. He’s surrendered 24 hits in 23 frames with 12 walks. That’s a lot of traffic. He’s also been tagged for five jacks in those 23 frames. Furthermore, current Royals have a combined 390 AB’s against Quintana so they know him well. The Royals are hitting .174 against southpaws, which is a number in line for a correction to the good. Nice overlay here.

Oakland +126 over L.A. ANGELS

After a rough April last year, a newfound reliance on his split-finger saved Matt Shoemaker’s (RHP) season. From May 21 on, Shoemaker posted a 2.83 ERA in 130 innings over 20 games started. Skills, particularly his K-rate, tailed off a bit after June, but his first-pitch strike rate speaks to his resilience of control, and his swing and miss rate raises hopes that his K-rate could rebound as well. However, a September skull fracture on a come-backer added uncertainty heading into the year. After two starts this year, Shoemaker’s ERA was 7.31. After four starts, it is 4.98. He has been taken yard in every start and has now surrendered six bombs in four starts covering 21 innings. He’s also walked nine batters. Shoemaker’s lone home start was his worst of the season and he’ll be back at home for this one.

Sean Manaea (LHP) gave up four earned runs in six innings in his first start of the year and recorded only four strikeouts. Over his next three starts against Houston, Seattle and Texas, Manaea struck out 22 batters over 16 innings. He has a 15% swing and miss rate and leads the majors with a 65% groundball rate among pitchers with three or more starts. There’s lots to like about Manaea and there is a lot to like about taking back a tag with him too.

Washington -1½ +175 over COLORADO

We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long:

Year to date:

4-5 +3.98 units

Tampa Bay +129 over BALTIMORE

Alex Cobb (RHP) has faced the Yankees twice and Boston and Houston once each. His ERA is 4.88 after four starts and because of that, we get him at an inflated priced today. Cobb underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2015. Before the missed time, Cobb was trending in a positive direction. His strong swing and miss rate supported his decent K-rate, indicating potential. This season after four starts against some tough lineups, Cobb generated swings on 36% of pitches outside of the strike zone compared to the league average of 31%. Cobb also does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground. Don’t assign a lot of relevance to Cobb’s four early starts because he joined the party late last year (in September), which was his first action in over a year. Cobb has shook off the rust and is ready to take that next step. With a BB/K split of 4/18 over 24 frames, a 52% groundball rate and an xERA that is at 3.98 but decreasing every game, Alex Cobb has great profit potential in that arm of his.

It's also been a long road back for Dylan Bundy (RHP). Once one of the premier prospects in the game, Bundy's arm/shoulder issues forced him out of the majors for the better part of three seasons. He returned in 2016 and spun 109 innings of 4.02 ERA ball, which included a move to the rotation for the entire second half. Still just 24, there are some encouraging signs, but he's not there yet. Bundy was able to miss bats with ease, as his 2H swing and miss rate held up well in a starting role. However, his low groundball rate tells us hitters are able to elevate off of him, which leads to considerable HR risk at Camden Yards (+16%/6% LHB/RHB HR). The weather is expected to be warmer tonight (65°) so the ball figures to carry better and that’s the risk here. Dylan Bundy has great potential for sure but his 32%/29%/39% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate makes him far too big a risk at this park when spotting a price.

N.Y. Yankees +113 over BOSTON

Rick Porcello (RHP) is Exhibit A on how pitchers are at whims of randomness, as his xERA has been flat for three years now. Porcello took pinpoint control to a new level last year with first-pitch strike rate support. That's the good news. The bad news is that his groundballs continued to turn into fly-balls and his swing and miss rate suggests his middling K-rate is here to stay. If you bet on Porcello, you are paying for a repeat of last year and that is not going to happen. Rick Porcello is nothing more than a reliable mid-rotation starter that is priced like an ace.

Few pitchers have been better than Luis Severino (RHP) in the early going. Severino has a BB/K split of 2/27 in 20 innings. That’s elite control with an elite strikeout rate. He has an elite batted ball profile of 50% groundballs, 17% line-drives and 33% fly-balls. His groundball rate in his last start was 65%. Severino’s 4.05 ERA is the result of bad luck. He comes in with a 2.22 xERA and a 0.80 WHIP and if he and the Yanks lose here so be it. However, when Severino, the Yankees and that #1 ranked bullpen is taking back a tag, it must be played and that applies here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wunderdog

Nashville @ St. Louis
Pick: Nashville +102

Nashville and St. Louis are evenly matched, finishing 3-4 in the Central Division with the Blues at +17 in goals for the season, the Predators +16. Nashville has excellent balance at #11 in goals scored, #15 in goals allowed and penalty killing, and are coming off a 4-0 blitz of the favored Chicago Blackhawks. They outscored Chicago 13-3. The offense has a dynamic forward line of Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson, while newcomer P.K. Subban has strengthened the offense and the defense. Goalie Pekka Rinne allowed just three goals on 126 shots for a .976 save percentage against the speedy Blackhawks. The Predators are hot at the right time, at 19-7 against the Western Conference. The Predators edged the Blues 3-2 during the season, so grab the dog in Game 1.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Will Rogers

Athletics at Angels
Pick: Angels

The set-up: The Angels salvaged a split of their four game series against Toronto with a 2-1 win on Monday. They then opened this three-games series with the A's with a second straight 2-1 victory. After nine scoreless innings last night, each team led off its half of the 10th with a home run but LA won on a walk-off single in the bottom of the 11th. Oakland's five-game winning streak was snapped in an 11-1 home loss to Seattle on Sunday and now for teh second straight game, the team's offense has produced just one run. The two teams play the middle game of this series tonight with Oakland at 10-10 and LA at 10-12.

The pitching matchup: Sean Manaea (1-1 & 4.43 ERA) gets the nod for the A's and Matt Shoemaker (0-1 & 4.98 ERA) will get the ball for the Angels. Manaea picked up his first win of 2017 in his last outing, a 3-1 Friday win over Seattle in which hse pitched six innings, allowing one run on five hits. He escaped with a no-decision against Los Angeles in his season debut back on April 4, after surrendering four runs and five hits in six innings. He's 0-1 with a 4.34 ERA in three starts against the Angels (A's are 0-3). Shoemaker has just two runs in three of his four starts this season but has yet to record a win. One of those two-run outings came opposite Manaea earlier this month, when he allowed four hits and walked three in a no-decision at Oakland. Shoemaker owns a 4-2 record and 3.51 ERA in 10 career starts against the Athletics (Angels are 7-3).

The pick: Shoemaker has pitched well enough to have a win or two so far in 2017 and is overdue for some good fortune. He's done well against the A's in his short career (see above) and I say he gets his first win of 2017, right here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chip Chirimbes

Nationals at Rockies
Play: Rockies -108

You can expect more offense tonight as these two clubs combined for 27 runs in Tuesday's slugfest as the Nationals won for the seventh time in eight tries on their current road trip. Colorado has won four of their last five scoring 46 runs in the process as they are tied for the most wins in baseball and Washington with 14. The Rockies will start Tyler Chatwood (2-2, 4.10 ERA) who has allowed just 23 hits in over 26 innings of work while the Nats will send Tanner Roark (2-0, 3.65) who has enjoyed receiving 6.5 runs support per start. This time he gets caught.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony Stoffo

Athletics vs. Angels
Play: Angels -136

Oakland has sputtered producing one run in back last two loses after having won previous five. Sean Manaea, with a 1-1 record and a 4.43 ERA will take to the hill. The Athletics are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a loss and 3-9 in Manaea's last 12 road starts.

Los Angeles will send out Matt Shoemaker who owns a 4-2 record and 3.49 ERA in 10 career starts and one relief appearance against the Athletics. The Angels are 8-3 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and 5-0 in Shoemakers last 5 home starts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Alex Smart

Reds vs. Brewers
Play: Over 9½

The Brewers starting hurler,Wily Peralta (3-1, 4.71 ERA) allowed six runs and nine hits in four innings and failed to register a single strikeout, last time out . The Brwers D, and pitching has been weak allowing 5 runs or more in 5 of their L/7, and could easily get tagged again today. Meanwhile, the Reds , Davis (0-0, 6.43 ERA) looks to be an extension of how bad his teams pitching has been so far this season, as is evident by ,The Reds dropping six of their last seven while allowing five or more runs in each of the last five trips to the diamond for a total of 43 rus. (ouch). Everything points to this game going over the total.

Milwaukee is 12-4 OVER against division opponents this season.MILWAUKEE is 10-2 OVER vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season and is 15-4 OVER in home games vs. a team with an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last few seasons.CINCINNATI is 13-2 OVER revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 8 or more runs and is 30-9 OVER (+21.1 Units) with triple revenge - 3 straight losses against opponent.

PERALTA is 12-2 OVER L/14 in home games in the first half of the season. Reds Manager, PRICE is 17-4 OVER L/21 off a loss by 6 runs or more to a division rival. Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 overall.Over is 4-0 in Reds last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 8-1 in Brewers last 9 overall.Over is 10-2-1 in the last 13 meetings in Milwaukee.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Andrew Lange

San Diego at Arizona
Play: Under 10

San Diego's Trevor Cahill is seemingly always in a state of "reinvention." Last year, he found his niche tossing out of the bullpen for the Cubs where he flashed a 2.74 ERA. This season, he's starting for the Padres and thus far doing a pretty good job. Like some of the highest priced pitchers in the game, Cahill is doing two things extremely well: miss bats and gardner ground balls. In three starts, he's posted 43 swinging strikes, 21 strikeouts and 28 ground balls. He's reportedly incorporated a new cutter/slider type pitch that compliments his main pitch, a sinker. Giving Cahill's history, an injury and/or regression is likely on the horizon but for the time being, he appears to be undervalued.

With Shelby Miller on the shelf, Arizona will turn to fringe arm Zack Godley. Godley doesn't have much of a track record but looked sharp in spring training and prior to his call-up from Triple-A Reno.

“There were some very good candidates that were throwing the ball in Reno,” Lovullo said. “But we trust and believe in their eyes, and that was their recommendation. He threw the ball very well at the tail end of spring training, and he left a very positive impression on myself and the rest of the staff.”

He walks into a favorable situation as San Diego's offense ranks near the bottom of the National League. And getting out of Petco hasn't yielded better results. In 13 road games, the Padres are averaging 3.2 runs per game and some dismal splits: .218/.278/.374/.652. In the first two games of this series, San Diego posted 28 strikeouts and only three walks. They plated four runs against fringe reliever Silvino Bracho who has since been sent down. Outside of that, Arizona's staff held San Diego to five runs in 17.2 innings.

Despite both starters not having much in the way of pedigree, current form and situation suggest there's some value on playing this game under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Allen Sports

Wednesday's Free Selection is on the Anaheim Ducks

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Wednesday Selection

New York Yankees w/Severino +116