4 unit play. #526. Take the james madison dukes +3.5 over over vcu (wednesday @ 7pm est). Glad we were able to cash with iowa state yesterday. In hindsight, i probably should have stepped out in that play, but it's all good as at some point i will step out this week on the college card. There is no need to press the issue here as we will wait for the right spot. As per this game, i like james madison here for the potential outright here in the colonial. For starters, i like the fac that jmu is a great free throw shooting team at 75.7% and i believe this will be important with the home crowd behind this team. The average attendance for jmu's contest has been around 3,500 for big conference games, which might not seem like a lot but given the limited seating of jmu, the stadium will be packed. Make no mistake about it that vcu is a good team. They lead the conference currently at 12-4 while jmu is 9-7 in conferece play. But, this is the same vcu team that lost to conference dud and dead last nc-wilmington on the road by 9. This is the same vcu team that lost to old dominion on the road by 4 and the same vcu team that lost to deleware on the highway as well james madison already faced this team once this year and they took vcu to the wire in overtime at vcu. James madison has really turned it up a notch at home. Remember, they defeated george mason earlier this year at home who is second in the conference by a score of 68-66. This team beat odu on the road as well in the beginning of the year by 8. When these two teams hooked up last time around jmu lost 71-76 in ot on the road. Note, they out rebounded vcu in that game 36-31. Vcu also got to the line in that game 25 times and shot 14/25 from the free throw line - just 56%. Jmu got to the line 17 times and shot 14 for 17 or 82.4%. That striking difference in free throw shooting and some home cooking calls will certainly help this time around for jmu. I also like how wells, thornton, louis and moore all were in double figures in that contest as well for the dukes. I know we are not always on the "sexy" and "popular" plays but i like the dukes here as it has everything we look for. About 2/3rds of the public is riding the road chalk vcu, i like the home dog here in jmu in fading the public, as our team has revenge, is a much better shooting free throw team will be key as it was last game when our team lost in ot as well as in this game with the home crowd, a team that be competitive on the boards and who already beat other top teams in the conference and can certainly get it done here at home. Granted, vcu does come off a tough 1 point loss to nevada which worries me a bit as they look to bounce-back, but i will take my chances here with jmu for the reasons stated above. The vcu rams are 0-5 ats when facing a team with a winning record of 60% or more, vcu is 1-7 ats in conference play their last 8 contests and the dukes are 6-0 ats as home underdogs of 0-6.5 points.
