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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Wednesday

BLUES at PENGUINS 7:05 PM

Take: BLUES -105

I’m making this a short and sweet analysis on the game this evening between the Blues and Penguins. It’s all about the numbers for me.

I utilize what amounts to eight sets of team ratings for my NHL work. There’s an overall number and I also have a subset that’s home and away for each team. The fourth is goalie power ratings. From there, I’ve got what amounts to fast and slow numbers for each team and goalie. The fast is current form, the slow is a season-long running number.

The whole idea is to isolate underdogs that are winning most of the categories. It’s extremely rare that a dog will have the better numbers across the board.

Long story short, the Blues win several categories tonight as they take on the Penguins in Pittsburgh. Note that this is incumbent upon Jake Allen getting the start on goal for St. Louis, but as he’s already listed as confirmed at dailyfaceoff.com. The Blues are technically not underdogs here as they’re currently at -105, but that’s close enough for me in game in which my numbers make them the favorite.

Note that series history and trends of that sort mean less than nothing to me. The fact the Blues have won four of their last five visits to Pittsburgh is of no consequence, as this is just the sixth time they’ve gotten together here since 2006. So this is all based on what’s taking place now. This should be a terrific game between two quality entries, but I’ll be looking to side with the Blues to come away with the two points tonight.
 
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Scott Spreitzer

Bonus Play Charlotte Hornets

I'm recommending a play on the Charlotte Hornets on Wednesday. The Washington Wizards took one on the chin last night, losing by 17 points to an Indiana team that was red-hot from distance. The Pacers nailed 19 of 26 3-pointers. Sometimes teams bounce right back from a tough loss, but the Wizards have been horrible on defense this season, ranked 29th defending the trey and 27th in defensive FG percentage, overall. The Wizards welcomed the return of Nene last night, but the team has struggled in tonight's spot, covering just two of their last 11 in the second of back-to-back nights. Charlotte has won three straight and eight of their last 11, while producing an 8-4-1 ATS mark in their last 13 games. They're averaging 104.6 ppg on the season, which means they aren't the team Washington's struggling defense will want to face without rest. Charlotte remains a tad undervalued in my opinion and I'm recommending a play on the Hornets minus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
 
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SLEEPYJ

Toledo -15.5

This is an absolute mismatch here in this game..To be very clear my line on this game was -25.5....That line is well off from the opening line as we can see..My numbers have been rather good this year to start off..So i feel very strong about this game..Without being redundant with this write-up with San Jose St, i will keep it to a minimum here...This Spartans teams is horrible and that's being nice..i could go on a long rant of just how bad this team really is..We have so many stats and teams to average them against..When a team shows up in about 30/40 different stat categories at bottom 80% , you know it's bad..Well i won't go through specifics in what the Spartans are bad at..It would be easier to say what they are good at being the list is short..They are good at decreasing the amount of minutes the starters from the other team has to play..Toledo will win the rebounds, assists, free throws, fouls, turnovers, steals, blocks, 3pt % and about 15 other useful stats here.,,San Jose may get overlooked and Toledo may rest the starters after the game is well in hand creating a backdoor for the Spartans..If Toledo goes a full game here and they just play Toledo basketball and the bench does it's part..I can see a very ugly outcome here..If you put money on San Jose St this year, just be careful and find the right spots and correct line value...This is not one of them IMO.
 
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JR ODonnell

NY ISLANDERS -1.5 (+155)

Let's fire on the NHL Isles -1.5 + 155... play these NY Isles as they blast the Flyers Wednesday ... my game #'s ... 7:35 tip with this play.. Halak vs Mason Phi at 19-47 last 3 years on the road in this spot... let's fire on these Isles to roll ... Mason 87.4% save % .... Ny by 2 ... Power Rated @ - 266....
 

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