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Preview: Bulldogs (3-1) at Blue Devils (4-1)

Date: November 25, 2015 7:00 PM EDT

After concluding a demanding week away from home on a positive note, Duke would seem to have a good opportunity to fine-tune some things during a mostly favorable five-game stretch at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

That begins Wednesday night when the sixth-ranked Blue Devils face Yale.

Coach Mike Krzyzewski looked more drained than his players after Duke's 86-84 victory over a one-win Georgetown team in Sunday's title game of the 2K Classic in New York.

"We think we know how to win, or we're trying to figure out how to win," said Krzyzewski, whose next victory will be No. 950. "Three hellacious games in six days is a heck of a thing for our team.

"We've got to fight for everything, and we've got a lot of growth (ahead)."

After shooting 40.7 percent in last Tuesday's 74-63 loss to current No. 1 Kentucky in Chicago, the Blue Devils (4-1) shot 48.6 percent against VCU and the Hoyas to win the event. Despite Georgetown shooting 54.9 percent and owning 34-24 advantage in the paint and forwards Amile Jefferson and Marshall Plumlee fouling out, Duke went 28 of 36 from the free-throw line and received another stellar effort from Grayson Allen.

After going 2 of 11 for six points against Kentucky, the sophomore guard earned tournament MVP honors by scoring 30 on VCU and 32 against the Hoyas. Averaging 24.4 points after playing 9.2 minutes per game last season, Allen went 18 of 27 from the field and hit 9 of 14 3-point attempts in those two games.

'I think the performance he had this weekend was unbelievable," Jefferson said. "He's been amazing.'

With Allen and Plumlee beginning their first seasons as full-time starters and prized freshmen Brandon Ingram and Derryck Thornton also expected to provide major contributions, these Blue Devils have plenty to learn.

At least in the eyes of their coach

"All these guys have to be given an opportunity to grow," Krzyzewski said. "They're all adjusting ... We're a good team. We hope to be a really good team, but we're not this juggernaut."

Though the Blue Devils might not reach that status any time soon, the learning continues during a less pressure-filled home stretch against Yale (3-1), Utah State, No. 13 Indiana, Buffalo and Georgia Southern. None have faced a ranked opponent and Indiana suffered its first defeat to Wake Forest in Maui on Monday.

Playing its first ranked opponent since losing at then-No. 19 Connecticut in November 2013, Yale nearly pulled off the upset in Sunday's 71-69 loss to a SMU team that moved into the Top 25 this week. Makai Mason had a game-high 24 points for Yale, which led by as many as 10 and went 9 of 20 from 3-point range but couldn't keep the Mustangs from hitting half of their 56 attempts and scoring 23 points off 16 turnovers.

"I'm proud of my teammates," Yale guard Nick Victor said. "It was a good experience for us and we've got to learn from it."

Though the Bulldogs likely gained some confidence from that effort, their margin of error will be even smaller against a Duke program that's won a NCAA-best 118 straight nonconference home games. The Blue Devils are 3-0 against Yale, last meeting in December 1973.

Mason averages a team-high 20 points and is tied for the lead with 4.3 assists.
 
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Preview: Red Wolves (2-2) at Ducks (4-0)

Date: November 25, 2015 7:00 PM EDT

Though it hasn't been entirely easy, Oregon continues to take advantage of its opening stretch of home games.

Coach Dana Altman expects his No. 21 Ducks to maintain that success Wednesday against Arkansas State.

With its first six games in Eugene before visiting UNLV on Dec. 4, Oregon (4-0) has the opportunity to get off to a solid start. However, Altman wants to make sure his squad doesn't take anything for granted during this stretch.

"I told the guys, heck, we're at home, we should win," Altman said. "I want them to take that mentality and find a way."

The Ducks looked strong while shooting 50.5 percent to beat Jackson State and Savannah State by a combined 46 points. They also showed their grit by grinding out a seven-point victory over then-No. 20 Baylor last week and a 73-67 win against feisty Valparaiso on Sunday.

"Now, we've got to get better," Altman said.

Oregon would seem to have a good chance to work out some kinks against Arkansas State (2-2), which lost by a point at Savannah State last Wednesday to open 0-2 on the road. Altman's biggest concern appears to be on the offensive end where the Ducks have shot 29.6 percent from 3-point range and turned the ball at least 13 times in all but one contest.

They've also shot 64.2 percent from the free-throw line. The Ducks looked better while going 17 of 24 from stripe Sunday, but only because they held a major advantage over a Valpo team that went to the line six times.

"We've got a lot of things to iron out," Altman said. "Offensively, we've got a long way to go ... We're not sharp with anything we do offensively. There's a lot of room for improvement."

Dillon Brooks, however, has hit all 11 of his free throws this season and scored 18 of his game-high 26 points in the second half Sunday. He also pulled down 13 rebounds for the Ducks, who trailed by as many as four after halftime but continue to play solid defense.

Oregon has held its opponents to an average of 61.3 points and 39.7 percent shooting, including 28.9 from beyond the arc.

"Even when we're down, we can still get wins," said Brooks, who totaled 30 points and 14 boards in the first three games. "Overall I think if we grind out every game and we play hard on defense, we can go against anybody."

The Ducks hope for an easier time against the Red Wolves, who bounced back from the loss to Savannah State by winning 78-69 over Jackson State on Sunday. Arkansas State overcame 42.3 percent shooting and a six-point halftime deficit to even its record.

"If we're scoring 75 points a game, for a team like mine, that's good," said Arkansas State coach John Brady, whose squad is holding opponents to 34.8 percent from the field. "We just got to defend."

Arkansas State forward Anthony Livingston averages team highs of 15.8 points and 10.8 rebounds.

This is the first meeting between the schools.
 
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Preview: Aggies (4-0) at Longhorns (1-1)

Date: November 25, 2015 7:00 PM EDT

Texas A&M has shown off plenty of offensive firepower during an impressive start - and one of their best players hasn't even been available.

The 25th-ranked Aggies will finally have Jalen Jones at their disposal Wednesday night for their 223rd meeting with Texas in a Battle 4 Atlantis quarterfinal in the Bahamas.

Texas A&M (4-0) hasn't been challenged yet, winning by an average of 33.7 points and shooting 55.9 percent, including 47.1 from 3-point range.

Five players are averaging 11.0 points or more, and 11 different players scored in a 74-47 home win over UNC Asheville on Saturday.

"That's the beauty of our team," coach Billy Kennedy said. "We've got a lot of different lineups and a lot of different guys we can play at different times."

That's even without Jones, a senior forward who was suspended for the first four games for not complying with NCAA regulations after participating in two closed scrimmages while at SMU before transferring. He averaged 13.7 points and 6.6 rebounds last season in his first year for the Aggies.

Kennedy wouldn't say if Jones would be immediately inserted into the starting lineup, though. He started all 31 games in which he played in 2014-15.

"We will see who gives us the best chance to win on Wednesday," Kennedy said. "We have a number of guys who can start so it really doesn't matter who starts for us, it's about winning the game. We didn't have him the last four games and we missed him at times, but we have some other guys. He's just going to make us stronger."

These rivals haven't met since Texas' 70-68 road win Feb. 6, 2012, before A&M departed for the SEC. The Aggies have dropped five straight in the series and 42 of the last 51 meetings. The Longhorns lead the all-time series 137-85.

Texas (1-1) claimed its first victory of the Shaka Smart era Saturday, winning 67-56 over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi after a 77-71 loss to Washington in Shanghai a week earlier.

"It was tough getting our body clock on the right schedule. The time change is tough," said Connor Lammert, who had 12 points and nine rebounds. "We've got another international trip. Thank goodness it's not another 14-hour difference."

Cameron Ridley led the Longhorns with 14 points and a career high-matching 14 rebounds. He's totaled nine blocked shots as the Longhorns have impressed defensively, holding their two opponents to a combined 29.9 percent shooting.

Texas is averaging 9.0 steals in Smart's high-pressure system compared to 6.3 last season under Rick Barnes.

Turnovers have been one of the few concerns thus far for Texas A&M, which averaged 18.0 through its first three contests but committed only nine against Asheville.

Aggies junior forward Tavario Miller is a Bahamas native who expects to have about 50 friends and family members in attendance. He's averaging 6.5 points.

"I'm really excited. The people back home are really looking forward to good basketball. They don't usually get college basketball," he said. "Hopefully it will be a good crowd out there supporting us."

The winner will meet either 10th-ranked Gonzaga or Washington on Thursday. The field also includes No. 18 Connecticut, which plays Michigan on Wednesday night.
 
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Preview: Rams (3-1) at Terrapins (4-0)

Date: November 25, 2015 8:30 PM EDT

Maryland will wear a heavy favorite tag once again in the Cancun Challenge championship game, but that title hasn't exactly fit the Terrapins well early this season.

The second-ranked Terrapins will try to remain unbeaten but hope to do so in more convincing fashion Wednesday night when they meet a Rhode Island team playing without its biggest star.

Each slipped through the semifinal round at Riviera Maya on Tuesday. It wasn't all that surprising that Rhode Island edged TCU, but it was fairly shocking how much trouble Maryland had against Illinois State.

Maryland (4-0) needed late 3-pointers from Jared Nickens and Rasheed Sulaimon paired with stiff defense down the stretch to hold off the Redbirds for a 77-66 win.

The Terrapins trailed with six minutes left in what could be considered their third consecutive tight game, coming on the heels of a 75-71 victory over Georgetown and a 65-58 win over Rider last week.

'Opponents are coming after us," coach Mark Turgeon said.

Turgeon called Illinois State a "tough matchup" given the Redbirds' speed across the board. What made it more difficult was 2-for-18 shooting from 3-point range before Nickens and Sulaimon provided some late relief.

Maryland has made 5 of 22 3-pointers in each of its last two games, and the Terrapins are shooting just 30.1 percent from deep this season - down from 37.6 a year ago.

'It is unsettling because we have good shooters,' Turgeon said. 'Maybe the pace of the game had something to do with it, because that was a tremendous pace. I just knew if we hit a couple, we would pull away, and we finally did."

The late spurt gives Maryland a chance to win its third early-season tournament in as many years. The Terrapins, who are ranked as high as No. 2 for the first time since March 4, 2002, won the CBE Hall of Fame Classic in Kansas City last season and the 2013 Paradise Jam in St. Thomas.

Sulaimon, a transfer from Duke, has played at least 35 minutes in each of Maryland's three close wins. He led the Terrapins with 18 points while Melo Trimble added 15.

Rhode Island (3-1) might have more pressing issues in its backcourt with guard E.C. Matthews sidelined the rest of the season after tearing his ACL in practice last week. Matthews averaged 16.9 points last season, leaving a gaping hole in the Rams' offensive plans.

Rhode Island, though, advanced after a 66-60 win over TCU on Tuesday thanks to a 3-pointer from Four McGlynn and a blocked shot from Hassan Martin in the final minute.

McGlynn led all scorers with 18 points, making 3 of 7 from 3-point range, while Jared Terrell added 12 points and 10 rebounds for his first career double-double.

Rhode Island has lost 28 of its last 29 games against ranked opponents, but that win came over No. 21 Nebraska 66-62 in overtime on Nov. 22, 2014. The Rams' last win over a top-5 team was an 80-75 victory over No. 2 Kansas in the second round of the 1998 NCAA Tournament.
 
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Preview: Wolverines (2-1) at Huskies (3-0)

Date: November 25, 2015 9:30 PM EDT

Talented yet untested, Connecticut now gets to see where its bolstered roster stands at the moment.

The No. 18 Huskies are part of a stacked field at the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament, where they open play Wednesday night against Michigan in a matchup of prominent programs coming off down seasons.

After following up its 2014 national championship by missing the NCAA Tournament last season, Connecticut (3-0) appears poised for a return to upper-tier status after adding graduate transfers Sterling Gibbs and Shonn Miller and heralded freshman Jalen Adams to a group of four returning starters headlined by 2014-15 American Athletic Conference Rookie of the Year Daniel Hamilton.

The re-tooled Huskies head to the Bahamas off three lopsided wins over lesser competition compared to the three opponents they'll draw in this marquee event, which contains 10th-ranked Gonzaga and No. 25 Texas A&M as well as traditionally strong ones such as Syracuse, Texas and Washington. They'll either renew their former Big East rivalry against the Orange or play Charlotte on Thursday.

Michigan (2-1), coming off a disappointing 16-16 campaign beset by several key injuries following a run to the regional finals in 2014, does have the advantage of having faced a quality foe - losing 86-70 to No. 23 Xavier on Friday in Ann Arbor.

"The Xavier game will be so beneficial for us," Wolverines coach John Beilein said. "(The players) understand more now than they understood before the game. Our growth mindset didn't end last year. Our growth mindset continues every day."

The Wolverines received 29 points from a now-healthy Caris LeVert but were beaten badly by the Musketeers on the interior. Xavier finished with a 47-29 rebounding advantage, outscored Michigan 34-14 in the paint and had a 16-5 edge in second-chance points.

UConn presents another potential matchup problem with its frontcourt of 7-foot center Amida Brimah and Miller, who scored 1,065 points in three seasons at Cornell and tallied 18 on 7 of 9 shooting in Saturday's 83-58 rout of Furman.

Gibbs, a second team All-Big East honoree at Seton Hall last season, began his Huskies' career with 41 points over wins against Maine and New Hampshire. His addition and the return of sharp-shooter Rodney Purvis (14.3 ppg) has helped offset the loss of 2014-15 leading scorer Ryan Boatright in the backcourt.

Adams, who had 14 points and six assists in 22 minutes against Furman, is part of an upgraded bench that's allowed coach Kevin Ollie to freely rotate 10 players.

'They are giving me a big-time lift,' Ollie said of his reserves. 'Jalen played a wonderful floor game, his best game in a Husky jersey.'

Michigan's hopes for a bounce-back rest mainly on LeVert, an expected NBA lottery pick limited to 18 games last season by a fractured foot. The versatile senior guard looks to have regained his previous form by averaging 19.3 points and 5.0 assists while going 7 for 14 on 3-pointers through the first three games.

The Wolverines' strength lies in their perimeter shooting, having made 43.9 percent of their 3-point tries. Division III transfer Duncan Robinson is 7 for 10 and point guard Derrick Walton Jr. is 6 for 12 in his return from a foot injury that ended his 2014-15 season after 19 games.

Michigan has won two of three meetings with UConn and posted a 68-63 home victory in the most recent one on Jan. 17, 2010.
 
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Preview: Commodores (5-0) at Jayhawks (3-1)

Date: November 25, 2015 10:00 PM EDT

Unbeaten and aiming for its first signature victory, Vanderbilt is about to make things a whole lot tougher for Kansas in paradise.

After both teams cruised to lopsided victories, the No. 19 Commodores and fifth-ranked Jayhawks meet for the first time in 18 years Wednesday night in the Maui Invitational.

Vanderbilt (4-0) is outscoring opponents by an average of 28.2 points after beating St. John's 92-55 on Monday and pounding Wake Forest 86-64 in the next day's semifinals.

The Commodores, however, have lost eight straight against teams in the Top 25, but this meeting with Kansas (3-1) will be their first of 2015-16.

"It would be huge for us going into the season, having that under our belt," center Damian Jones said after finishing with 17 points with 10 rebounds Tuesday. "It would really help our confidence going into conference play."

The Jayhawks have been even better offensively, averaging 99.3 points while shooting 52.5 percent. They hammered Division II Chaminade 123-72 in the opening round before building a 26-point halftime lead on the way to a 92-73 win over UCLA on Tuesday.

Coach Bill Self isn't expecting things to go nearly as smoothly against Vanderbilt, which Kansas is facing for the first time since a win in Honolulu on Dec. 29, 1997.

"First of all, they're a lot bigger than we are," Self said. "So we're going to have to play bigger than our standing height. We'll have to utilize our quickness inside. It's a hard matchup for us.

"Vanderbilt would be extremely difficult to play and defeat no matter what. But (especially) with no day to prepare for a team that runs 100 different sets, and they're experienced and they share it."

The Commodores have five players averaging double-digit points, including reserve forward Jeff Roberson, who has totaled 23 points and 20 rebounds while making 7 of 12 shots through the first two games in Maui.

Wade Baldwin IV tied Jones' team high of 17 points Tuesday, but the sophomore guard got his in 22 minutes. He's averaging 14.0 points and shooting 53.3 percent, including 8 of 15 from beyond the arc, but totaled just eight points while missing 10 of 14 field-goal attempts in two meetings with ranked teams last season.

Jones, meanwhile, has put up 13.0 points per game with 6.8 boards in four such matchups over his career.

Kansas senior Perry Ellis is looking to build on a season-high 24 points Tuesday, connecting on 9 of 12 from the floor. The forward is averaging a team-high 18.0 points.

If Ellis has trouble finding space due to Vanderbilt's size - Jones, forward Luke Kornet and backup center Josh Henderson are all 7-footers - then Wayne Selden Jr. and Frank Mason III will try to continue their strong play along the perimeter.

Selden is averaging 15.0 points while sinking 13 of 23 from 3-point range, while Mason is scoring 13.8 with 6.5 assists per game.

The Jayhawks won their only Maui Invitational title in 1996, while Vanderbilt's came 10 years earlier.
 
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College hoops' new shot clock has huge impact on betting totals

The 2015-16 NCAA basketball season has presented oddsmakers and sports bettors with a brand new challenge - the implementation of the 30-second shot clock. The move from 35 seconds to 30, along with some other rule changes to facilitate the offensive pace, has a huge impact on college basketball betting totals, which is already one of the toughest markets for sportsbooks to handle.

The new shot clock instantly changed the NCAA game, and college programs are producing points at an 18-year high through the first three weeks of the season. As of Monday, the average NCAA Div-I final combined score was 146 points – the highest it’s been since games averaged 142 points in 2000-01.

Over the past 18 seasons, NCAA games had averaged only 137.6 points with that number dipping to 135.5 since 2008-09, and tied an 18-year low in 2014-15 with teams putting just 133 points per game on the scoreboard. That was also the lowest scoring average since the 1951-52 season.

This recent outburst in scoring has helped produce a 185-149-2 Over/Under record, with lined games (not all college basketball games have totals released by oddsmakers) playing Over the total 55.3 percent in that span.

At first glance, that number certainly isn’t mind blowing. But when you consider NCAA regular season hoops game have gone 17,801-18,013-461 Over/Under – 49.6 percent Over since 1997-98 – it’s a drastic shift in just a short time.

Peter Korner, founder of Las Vegas-based odds service The Sports Club, says he alerted clients before the season started that his team would not be issuing totals for the opening games, and instead waited three days to get a grasp on how much the shot clock adjustment would affect scoring production and Over/Under results.

“It didn’t take long to see that the changes were significant,” Korner says. “It’s a bit of an unknown adjustment, but right now we’re looking at adding about 10 points per game – five points a side. That may not seem significant but it really is under these new rules."

Korner says some of his handicapping sources had made the adjustment to the new shot clock before the season began and some didn’t. Those that failed to update their odds ratings systems were constantly low on totals, which prompted Korner to put them on the self until their databases were updated.

“People were prepared and that’s a nice edge to get right out of the gate,” says Korner, who notes that these advantages do show up more often earlier into seasons before oddsmakers and average bettors catch on. “Our numbers will get closer and more accurate with every game, as soon as we have a good base of information which is usually five of six games into the season.”

The opening month of the college basketball season is usually conducive to Unders, with teams working in new lineups and players, and coaches tinkering with their offensive sets. In the past 18 seasons, the opening slate of college basketball games have produced a 2,156-2,358-44 Over/Under count – 47 percent Overs – from tipoff to November 30. Those games finished with an average betting total of 137.42 points, a sharp difference from the 144.33 average Over/Under books are hanging this season.

The adjustment in betting totals only tells part of the story of the NCAA's pursuit to produce a faster, and therefore more entertaining product. Since playing with the 30-second shot clock, college teams are taking 58.39 field goal attempts per game (past 18 season averaged 55.77) and making 26.78 of those shots (25.03 last 18 seasons).

Some would think the shorter clock would breed poor shots, but teams are hitting at a 45.86 percent clip from the floor – another 18-year high and the best FG percentage since 45.42 percent in 2006-07, which produced a 1,576-1,474-45 (52% Over) O/U record on the season. Beyond the arc, the 2015-16 season has produced 7.14 3-point makes on 20.45 3-point takes per game, shooting 34.91 percent from distance, which is a small decline from the average since 1997-98 (34.91% compared to 35.25%).

Another trend that's been around the past few seasons is referees cracking down on hand-checking and physical defense, leading to more whistles – especially in the early goings of the schedule. From 1997-98 to 2012-13, teams averaged 17.92 fouls per game. The last three seasons have seen fouls climb to 18.48 per game including 19.59 fouls per game this season – the highest since 19.12 fouls per game in 2000-01.

That increase in calls has sent teams to the foul line 25.38 times per game in 2015-16 – another notable jump from the 22.40 foul shots per game over the past 18 seasons – with teams knocking down 17.43 of those freebies - 68 percent shooting from the charity stripe. That’s almost two points more from the foul line compared to the previous 10 seasons. And in the world of Over/Under betting, fouls mean scoring with the clock stopped – a huge edge for the Over.

Currently, there are 15 college programs who have a 3-0 Over/Under record or better without a single Under result, including Belmont at 5-0 O/U. On the other end of the scale, there are just five college basketball teams who are 0-3 Over/Under – the best Under producers - on the season.

“It’s a really good opportunity for gamblers, if they were able to get in on it early and get the right games,” says Korner. “Bettors will get a good edge if they know something at the start of the season. Every one knew this was happening but you're still seeing an adjustment to those results."
 
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NCAAB

Notes for Wednesday's games..........

LaSalle won its last nine games with Penn, last four by 11+ points; they are 3-0 this year, beating three stiffs by 2-13-8 points- this is their first road game, albeit still in Philly. Penn lost by 37 at Washington Saturday after winning its first three games; Quakers are shooting only 26.9% on arc. Explorers played four starters 30:00+ in Monday night's 83-75 win.

Northridge is 1-3 vs D-I teams, losing by 12-35 in its two true road tilts. Teams are shooting 44.8% from arc vs Matadors, who are starting three freshmen. LMU lost last two D-I games by 24-8 points, their only two road games. Lions start four juniors and a soph. Big West road underdogs are 5-4 vs spread. WCC home favorites are 5-3 vs spread.

UCSB lost last two games to Pac-12 teams by 18-12 points; Gauchos are starting three seniors- they split two road games, winning at Omaha by a point. San Francisco is 3-1, beating Big West's Riverside 58-57 last game; Dons allowed 55.5 ppg in winning their two home games. WCC home favorites are 5-3 vs spread; Big West road underdogs are 5-4 vs spread.

Atlantis tournament
Washington's best player transferred to Gonzaga last spring- he won't be eligible until next year, but it makes this game more interesting. Huskies have almost whole new team, are 3-0, with win over Texas in Japan and two wins over stiffs- they have #4 eFG% defense in country. Gonzaga is 2-0, beating couple of stiffs by 31-37 points- this game is at noon ET, which makes it 9am PT for these two schools from Washington.

Texas A&M-Texas don't play anymore since Aggies bolted to SEC; they are 4-0 vs 9th-easiest schedule in country- Aggies start two sophs and a freshman. Longhorns won their only game since coming back from loss to Washington in Japan. Big X underdogs are 2-1 vs spread; SEC favorites are 7-2 against spread on neutral floors.

Michigan lost last game at home to Xavier by 16; they're 2-1 even though they're shooting 46% from arc. Wolverines are starting two sophs, couple juniors. UConn scored 89.3 ppg in beating three stiffs by 44-19-25 pts; Huskies blocked 23.5% of opponents' shots so far (#1 in US). Favorites from AAC are 9-3 vs spread. Big 14 underdogs are 3-2 vs spread.

Maui Classic (teams playing third day in row)
UNLV's frosh C Zimmerman sat yesterday's game out; he is expected to play here; Rebels are shooting only 27% from arc. Indiana scored 85.4 ppg in 4-1 start, beating St John's by 10 yesterday- they shot 63-67% inside arc in two games this week. UNLV's interior defense will be more of a challenge. Mountain West underdogs are 7-3 against the spread.

Wake Forest allowed 83 ppg in 3-2 start; they used three guys 30+ last two days- their best player is out, but guys on ESPN again hinted that two suspended players could be active for today. UCLA was down 26 at half (59-33) last nite; they're 3-2, turning ball over 21.3% of time. Alford played 73:00 in first two games. Pac-12 favorites are 16-12 vs spread.

Kansas was up 59-33 at half in easy win over UCLA last nite after they crushed Chaminade nite before; Jayhawks played two starters 31:00+ yesterday- they lost to Michigan State last week by 6, but haven't been tested in this event. Vanderbilt made 42.2% of its 3's in 5-0 start- they have #16 eFG% defense in country. SEC favorites are 15-9.

Cancun tournament
TCU lost last two games, scoring 63.5 ppg against South Dakota St and URI; Horned Frogs force turnovers 22.4% of time, are #12 in country at blocking shots- they're shooting 32.4% from arc. Illinois State lost tough game with Maryland last nite; they used four starters 27:00+. Redbirds are 0-3 against top 100 teams, with losses by 11-16-11 points.

Maryland is 4-0; they shot 68% inside arc in 77-66 win over Illinois St., a game that was tied with 5:00 left; Terps have dominant PG in Trimble, which is big with new rules. Rhode Island lost best player for year with knee injury; they're 3-1 while forcing turnovers 24.8% of time, but URI turns ball over 23.3% of time too. A-14 underdogs are 8-3 vs spread.

MGM Grand tourney (teams had Tuesday off)
UMass scored 81.3 ppg in 4-0 start, making 41.6% from arc- their 3FG% is #27 in country. Minutemen hammered Clemson by 17 Monday after three wins vs teams ranked #199 or lower. Creighton lost at Indiana by 21 but is 3-1 after beating Rutgers by 10 Monday; Bluejays scored 93.7 ppg in three wins, were held to 65 in loss to Hoosiers.

Elsewhere........
Montana made 9-20 from arc in 69-57 home win over North Dakota St LY; Griz is 2-1 this year, losing only home game at San Jose State by 3- they've made only 22.2% from arc. North Dakota State lost at Illinois by 6 after beating Cal-Davis in OT; they start two sophs, two juniors and don't force lot of turnovers. Summit teams are 24-6 against the spread.
 
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Don't dare let these three spot bet opportunities pass you by
By BEN BURNS

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you're betting. Whether it's a team looking past this week's opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots. Ben Burns points out his favorites:

Letdown spot

The FAU Owls nearly put their program on the map and shook up the college football power rankings but missed out on a massive win over Florida, losing to the Gators 20-14 in overtime as 28.5-point road underdogs in Gainesville Saturday. The Owls battled back in the second half to force the extra frame but couldn’t keep pace with their SEC opponent in crunch time.

Florida Atlantic now must wipe away the tears for a C-USA showdown with Old Dominion Saturday. The Monarchs opened as 4.5-point underdogs but have watched that spread come down a half a point since post. Old Dominion seems like a live home dog against a two-win FAU team coming off a crushing defeat.

Lookahead spot

The Chicago Blackhawks are out West for the holiday weekend, starting with a game against the San Jose Sharks Wednesday night. The Blackhawks not only will be looking past the Sharks to the Thanksgiving Thursday – a day off on the NHL schedule – but have two huge games ahead on this road trip.

Chicago has a rematch with the Anaheim Ducks, who they battled for seven games in last year’s postseason, Friday night. And then the Blackhawks play the Los Angeles Kings, who they lost to in the Western Conference final two seasons ago, Saturday night. With some time off and two massive rivalry games ahead, Chicago could get caught looking past San Jose Wednesday.

Schedule spot

The Atlanta Hawks are having a tough time replicating the success of last season, when they surged to the top of the Eastern Conference. Atlanta finished with 60 wins and held its own against non-conference opponents as well, going 22-8 against Western Conference competition. This season, the Hawks are just 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS versus the West and have a daunting road schedule ahead.

Atlanta plays three games in four nights, starting with a stop in Minnesota Wednesday. The Hawks already lost at home to the Timberwolves this month, falling 117-107 as 8.5-point favorites. Following the Thanksgiving Thursday, Atlanta is back at it with games at Memphis Friday and San Antonio Saturday. Overall, for the week, the Hawks play four games in five nights with the holiday in between.
 
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Soccer: CL Best Bets - Wednesday
By Toby Maxtone-Smith

Matchday 5

Wednesday night sees some crucial games as all 16 teams still have a lot to play for. Real Madrid are the most likely group winners after eding out PSG 1-0, but apart from that, groups A to D are all extremely close.

Just three points separate the teams in Group B. Arguably the most interesting game sees Juventus play Manchester City, while all eyes will be on the under-pressure Real Madrid boss Rafael Benitez in their game at Shakhtar Donetsk. Elsewhere Benfica have an epically long trip to Kazakhstan and PSG go to Malmo.

The Banker: Under 2.5 goals in FC Astana vs. Benfica at 4/6

Astana is so far east that this game kicks off nearly five hours before any other Champions League game, meaning American viewers will get a Champions League game to watch in the morning. However being able to watch Astana last time was no joy, even though they defended admirably in their 0-0 home draw with Atletico Madrid.

Both of the Kazakh side’s goals in this year’s competition have been own goals, and Benfica have been reasonably solid, conceding four goals in as many games. A win would see Benfica guarantee qualification, meaning there is a lot at stake for the Portuguese side. Keeping it tight in defence will be key, and 4/6 on there being under 2.5 goals looks a good bet.

The Solid Bet: Real Madrid to win at Shakhtar Donetsk at 10/11

Losing to Barcelona always hails a period of frantic soul-searching for Real Madrid, but when that defeat comes with a 4-0 scoreline that process is even more painful. Real were gutless and lazy while Barcelona skipped around them.

However the reaction from bettors to that match has gone too far, and at 10/11 Real Madrid have drifted to a price that I would be very happy to take. Shakhtar Donetsk are probably about the 15th best side in Europe, and Real only tend to have big problems against the top 10. Shakhtar are good, but they are not good enough to dominate the ball against Real, which the Madrid side find difficult to deal with. Shakhtar’s game-plan is about defeating lesser teams in their own league. It is hard to foresee them coping with Real Madrid for 90 minutes.

The Outsider: Manchester City to win at Juventus at 5/2

Lots has been said about Manchester City’s perennial struggles in Europe, but they have qualified with two games to go this time, and travel to Turin in the driving seat to win Group D. And with the pressure slightly off both teams - Juventus are five points clear of second - it could be a fast-flowing, attacking game. And even though they are the away side, that would suit Manchester City. They scored three away to Sevilla in one of the best away performances by an English team in Europe for some years. They also won at Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Juventus have picked up form after their dreadful start to Serie A, but they still languish in sixth - nine points off Inter Milan who are currently top. Man City should have Aguero closer to full fitness and Vincent Kompany will return. At 5/2 they look a fair price to get a win in Turin.

The First Goalscorer: Memphis Depay for Manchester United vs PSV Eindhoven at 6/1

Even the most biased Manchester United fan could not argue that, so far, Memphis Depay has been a disappointment for the twenty-times English champions. But the Dutch winger has every reason to be fired up on Wednesday night as his former club, PSV Eindhoven, come to Old Trafford. Depay visibly raised his game in United’s away defeat to PSV, and he scored the first goal in that game. He also netted first in United’s win at Watford on Sunday. At 6/1 he looks good value to repeat the trick.
 
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At the Gate - Wednesday
By Mike Dempsey

We have plenty to be thankful for this holiday weekend, with a good slate of stakes action on tap including the $500,000 Clark Handicap (G1) at Churchill Downs on Friday and the $500,000 Cigar Mile (G1) at Aqueduct on Saturday.

The stakes action kicks on Thursday at the Big A with the $200,000 Fall Highweight (G3) at six furlongs on the main track, featuring a pair of runners that competed in the Breeders’ Cup.

La Verdad takes on the boys after her runner up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1). She is cutting back to six furlongs which is key and she loves the Big A main track, having won five of her six starts.

She faces Salutos Amigos, who checked in fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) in his last outing and is the defending champion of the Fall Highweight. He won last year in the slop as the 2-1 favorite.

Friday’s Clark at Churchill Downs drew a field of nine including Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) runner up Effinex, Fayette (G2) winner Race Day, Travers (G1) winner Keen Ice, and Hoppertunity, who was second in the Awesome Again (G1) and Fayette in his last two starts.

Saturday’s card at Aqueduct is a good one with four graded stakes including the Cigar Mile. I will take a look at those races after entries come out later today.


Here is today’s opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:20 ET)
#7 Mr Harlan 5-1
#4 Hunter Cat 2-1
#2 Miroc 3-1
#3 Chief of State 6-1

Analysis: Mr Harlan was not a threat in a seventh place finish going six furlongs on turf in her first go off a long layoff for the Lewis barn. The colt is out of a stakes placed Gold Fever mare that has dropped two winners including a stakes winner.

Hunter Cat set the early fractions and battled on gamely right to the wire, beaten a head for the top spot in his first go on dirt. The gelding made his first two starts on turf. The gelding is headed in the right direction and looks primed for a top effort in his third start of his current form cycle and second career outing on dirt.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 4,7 / 2,3,4,7
TRI: 4,7 / 2,3,4,7 / 2,3,4,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 Clm $14,000N2L (3:50 ET)
#7 Francis Freud 10-1
#1 Vancouver 5-2
#2 Thirty Percent 7-2
#3 Easy Comparison 5-1

Analysis: Francis Freud dueled for the early lead over a sloppy track here and faded to finish seventh last out against $25,000 non-winners of two. Two back at 24-1 the gelding set the early fractions and weakened late to finish third while catching a racing strip at Belmont Park that was playing to outside stalkers and closers that day. He gets a jock upgrade to CVel and drops in for a $14,000 tag. Low % barn but we should catch a fair price and he faces a really slow group here.

Vancouver went gate to wire to break his maiden last out for a $20,000 tag in his first trip over the Big A main track. He was making his second start off a three month break and second off the claim by the Parisella barn. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers and finds a good spot to face winners for the first time here. Looks as if he has more upside than most of this group.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 1,7 / 1,2,3,7
TRI: 1,7 / 1,2,3,7 / 1,2,3,5,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R3: #6 Sweet Advance 12-1
R6: #9 Alaapatique 8-1
R6: #3 Set Off 10-1
R6: #5 I Am Atlas 12-1
R8: #7 Francis Freud 10-1
R9: #7 Mr. Canada 8-1

Good luck today!
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Post: 7:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 58 - Purse:$6000 - FILLIES & MARES - N/W $3000. LIFETIME


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 9 LISSOY 9/5


# 1 WINDSUN READY 7/2


# 6 ILL SEE YOU AGAIN 5/2


We've got a vibe LISSOY is going to get the triumph. Has nice TrackMaster speed figs and clearly has to be considered for a bet in this event. This contender has shown us some ability in the past, just look at the 64 average class number. Should play well in this event. Many handicappers will recognize the outstanding TrackMaster speed fig in the last race. Stacks up against any horse in this field. WINDSUN READY - This entrant looks strong. Check out the 60 avg TrackMaster SR. This nice horse recorded a formidable speed fig last out. Looks to be racing sharply to come right back. ILL SEE YOU AGAIN - That 57 TrackMaster Speed Rating clocked in the most recent competition puts this standardbred in the mix for this one.
 
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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Post: 9:25 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 78 - Purse:$8300 - WINNERS OF 2 BUT NOT MORE THAN 4


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 2 BALLARE HANOVER 5/1


# 6 CINCINNATI MISS 8/5


# 3 DRIVING ME LINDY 8/1


Hard not to like BALLARE HANOVER as the top pick today. This entrant may have some hidden form, a trip to the winner's circle would be a pleasant surprise. Been competing with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class edge. (Average Rating 79). With Crawford in the bike, watch out for this race horse to get the victory. CINCINNATI MISS - Racing competently, achieved a very strong speed figure in her last gathering (83). Talk about a dynamic duo, Coppola and Rousse have some of the best driver-conditioner markings at the track. DRIVING ME LINDY - Bouchard and Euto have a really good working relationship. Great results from their contests. Mare has one of the top win stats in the field of starters and that could be the deciding factor when they cross the wire.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 72

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 11 ZENITTOWINIT 5/1


# 8 LINCOLN HIGH 15/1


# 6 THEYPLAYINGOURSONG 3/1


I think ZENITTOWINIT is a very strong choice. This filly has a strong win percent in dirt sprint races. Solid rider and conditioner combo winning 20 percent of their races working together. Solid gains over time for this jockey and trainer combo. LINCOLN HIGH - Has solid speed figures and has to be considered for a bet in this event. The average Equibase class figure of 61 makes this one difficult to beat. THEYPLAYINGOURSONG - Reliable average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this equine a solid choice. Overall, has one of the best earnings per start in dirt sprint races in this lot.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $28500 Class Rating: 83

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 8 JUST LIKE A ROCK 15/1


# 9 STEEP N DEEP 5/2


# 4 WINNING SHOT 9/2


JUST LIKE A ROCK looks to be a very good contender and the potential return justifies the dangerous nature of the long odds. The average class figure alone makes this entrant a definite contender. Is worth serious consideration and may be a wager - strong Speed Figures (75 average) at today's distance and surface recently. STEEP N DEEP - Has very good Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet here. Make a note that this horse runs on Lasix today. WINNING SHOT - Could provide positive gains based on competitive recent Speed Figures with an average of 73. Put up a very good speed fig last time out.
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Woodbine - Race #8 - Post: 10:19pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,500 Class Rating: 76

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#12 SILENT AUCTION (ML=6/1)
#6 WANNABITABREW (ML=8/1)
#13 KISEKI (ML=5/1)


SILENT AUCTION - I think the shorter trip will help this filly stay the distance. Ran in the last race against a better group of horses at Woodbine. The move down in class should suit her well. Popular handicapping theory - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. Going to run a nice one here. WANNABITABREW - Sprinters that come back to the races quickly are generally good plays. KISEKI - Husbands rode this thoroughbred for the first time last time out and comes right back today. Have to make this filly a serious competitor; she comes off a solid contest on November 5th. This jockey and conditioner's horses have been producing a profitable ROI.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 RADIANT STAR (ML=3/1), #5 STORMING PLACE (ML=4/1),

RADIANT STAR - In any event of 7 furlongs, I like to wager on a contender that has been on the board in sprint contests of late. STORMING PLACE - The Brain tells me to keep away from horses in short distance contests that haven't finished in the money in short distance races recently. Tough to put your money on this early speedball. Too much speed in the event.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #12 SILENT AUCTION to win if you can get odds of 3/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [6,12,13]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [6,12,13] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Zia Park - Race #11 - Post: 4:35pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,500 Class Rating: 50

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 FRIVOLI (ML=4/1)


FRIVOLI - Trainer, Roberts, has been deliberate with this filly off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. This filly garnered a nice fig of 45 in her last affair. That fig should be good enough to win this time out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 MISTY MONI (ML=9/2), #12 DANDY DOM (ML=9/2), #10 JESSIE WHO (ML=8/1),

MISTY MONI - No good fortune for this questionable contender in a short distance event over the last 60 days tells me that this filly is in a formidable spot DANDY DOM - Hasn't finished in the money in any short distance events recently. Unlikely to see her doing it this time either. The speed rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class figure of today's event. Mark this racer as a vulnerable contender. JESSIE WHO - If she goes off anywhere near the morning line odds of 8/1, I'll have to pass.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - FRIVOLI - Don't look at the finish position last time around the track, but take a look at how many lengths back she was from the victor. Should improve enough to grab the brass ring in today's event.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#3 FRIVOLI to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
3 with [1,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
 
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Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #1 - AQUEDUCT - 12:20 PM EASTERN POST

6.0 FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT $55,000.00 PURSE

#4 HUNTER CAT
#2 MIROC
#7 MR HARLAN
#1 ANT AND BEE

#4 HUNTER CAT takes a class drop (-3), and is the overall speed and class profile leader in this maiden field sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, and comes off a "POWER RUN PLACE" finish facing better company in his last start, missing his "diploma" in that race by just a "photographed head" at the wire in a determined attempt to break his maiden. Trainer James Ryerson will send him to the post ... Ryerson has the top rating in this field today, hitting the board with 56% of his "winless runners" saddled to date. #2 MIROC has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in both of his last two outings, also missing his respective "diploma" in his last start by a "photographed head" at the wire!
 
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Northfield: Wednesday 11/25 Analysis + Pick Four ticket
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four Play:

4,5,6 / 1,3,4 / 5 / 5,9 = $18

Best Bet: CARRINO (10th)

Spot Play: HANGIN JUDGE (3rd)


Race 1

(1) REALLY REALY SWEET gets the best post and has been knocking on the door at this level. (4) CARELESS LOVE mare was sharp two back but hasn't raced well in her last efforts on sloppy tracks. (3) SBM GEORGIAN STAR just needs to stay trotting for a big chance.

Race 2

(1) SOUTHSIDE CHRIS sophomore pacer faces significantly weaker and has shown he can get around the small track. (2) FLYING SOUTH will look to make it three straight; threat. (4) BROTHER DAN gets sent out for capable connections but has just been racing evenly; command a price.

Race 3

(9) HANGIN JUDGE never got into the mile last week but finds a softer field. (6) JESMACH CHESTER gelding was on a big roll before reverting back to his breaking ways last out. (1) MARKET TIMER has been much improved with a better pilot.

Race 4

(9) Q COBRA JET lightly raced 3-year-old has been getting better and fits in nicely with this bunch. (5) SOUTHWIND SID comes off a win at this level. (2) STRONG PLAYIN KING is more talented than the field but has trouble staying pacing; command a price.

Race 5

(3) SARKIN HANOVER raced gamely last out and needed the start. The 8-year-old should be primed for a better effort second start back off the layoff. (2) FOREVER ROYAL just needs to stay trotting for a piece; threat. (1) JAXTELLER well bred 4-year-old gets the best post in a field full of question marks.

Race 6

In the toughest race to handicap on the card, (4) LIGHT UP THE SKY should offer a fair price and drops in class. (3) AS DUHARAS rarely wins but is capable of a decent burst of speed. (1) MAJOR SPEED owns the fastest win in the field on the year and gets the best post.

Race 7

(1) BOSCO'S ANGEL went too fast early last start. If the trotter can sit on a helmet until late he's a threat. (8) MAGIC PEACH is capable of much better and finds a really weak field. (6) MISS EVA CASH picks up a big driver change against a suspect bunch.

Race 8

(6) TERROR OF THETRACK owns wins against better on the year and should offer value bumping up a level. (4) PANFERMIN FESTIVAL is capable of a decent move when timed right but needs a good setup. (5) WINDSONG DESTROYER owns only one win on the year but has been competitive at this level.

Race 9

(3) JACOB'S GILLY filly picks up a big driver change and looks to have some ability. (4) HARD ROCK TRIXIE mare wasn't far off a similar group a few starts ago. (1) CALLIT AS U SEEIT is very inconsistent from week to week; use caution.

Race 10

(5) CARRINO should be in line for a much easier trip against weaker. (1) ARMBRO DOMI picks up the best post down in class. (8) WATERSIDE CHAMP has been facing tougher and could pick up the pieces in the right scenario.

Race 11

(9) GRANDKIDS ATTACK is a smooth trip away from hitting the ticket. (5) STRYKER gets sent out for the top trainer with the top driver; fires early. (2) EARLYMORNINARRIVAL looks terrible on paper but could shake loose for a piece underneath late.

Race 12

(7) GESPACHO has some question marks off over a month but has flashed ability. (1) MARKET REBOUND raced well last week and now gets the best post. (2) DARTMOUTH HALL is just now back in racing shape and has room to improve.

Race 13

In a field with few contenders, (6) STAND YOUR GROUND drops down a notch and is capable of pacing a decent mile. (4) CAMMILICIOUS three-year-old filly was an easy winner at this level last week; threat. (5) BOOTYSHAKERBAKER filly has been very competitive against similar but is probably best used underneath for a low percentage pilot.

Race 14

(3) PRINTSONTHEBEACH owns the best win in the field by far but has some question marks shipping in from the big track. (8) TOPVILLE CORVETTE gelding could be the sleeper in the race making his first start for new connections. (1) KALLISTA well bred pacer gets the best post against an inconsistent field; use underneath.

Race 15

(2) JUSTROLLWITHIT pacing mare needs some racing luck but will offer a big price in a wide open race. (3) FOX VALLEY SMOOCH is in the same boat as the top choice but should be in a decent spot turning for home. (4) J K DELIGHT is the only horse dropping in class in the race; threat.
 
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SPOT PLAYS

For Wednesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (2nd) Sol the Freud, 7-2
(8th) Thirty Percent, 7-2


Charles Town (6th) No Way R J, 9-2
(8th) Magic Spur, 3-1


Churchill Downs (5th) Tree Top Lover, 6-1
(8th) Street Chief, 6-1


Delta Downs (3rd) M B Puck, 5-1
(8th) My Nephew Andrew, 6-1


Finger Lakes (4th) Heavy Hitter, 3-1
(6th) Gaffer, 3-1


Gulfstream Park West (3rd) My Corinthian, 10-1
(9th) Pinzy's Prize, 4-1


Hawthorne (1st) Theghostbdancing, 7-2
(7th) Lookout Angel, 8-1


Mahoning Valley (1st) Just a Pinch, 9-2
(6th) Flash a Smile, 4-1


Penn National (4th) Amelia's Wild Ride, 5-1
(10th) Olympic Diamond, 9-2


Woodbine (4th) Classic Bryce, 3-1
(5th) Maxsmiraclejourney, 3-1


Zia Park (1st) Star of Wonder, 8-1
(9th) Point Piper, 5-1
 

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