Wednesday 11/18/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Raptors (7-5) at Jazz (5-5)

Date: November 18, 2015 9:00 PM EDT

The Utah Jazz certainly aren't celebrating their .500 start, though staying even could be considered an accomplishment considering their brutal early schedule.

Playing back in Salt Lake City for only the third time, the Jazz will try to start making some headway as they begin a stretch with 16 of 23 at home Wednesday night against the Toronto Raptors.

After winning 13 of its last 19 at home and 26 of its final 42 overall in 2014-15, Utah hoped to carry some of that momentum into a strong start this season.

The club, however, faced an uphill battle from the start with eight of its first 10 games on the road. After dropping the first three by a total of 14 points, the Jazz closed out a four-game trip with Sunday's 97-96 victory at Atlanta.

Derrick Favors led the way with 23 points, Rodney Hood scored 20 after missing one game with a sore foot and Alec Burks added 18 off the bench as Utah shot a season-high 51.3 percent. Favors and Hood combined to score 32 in the second half.

Rudy Gobert had 11 points and a game-high 11 rebounds in his return after missing two games with a sprained left ankle. The French native also played with a heavy heart in his first game since the terrorist attacks in Paris two days earlier.

'I was happy to see him play that way, especially considering the circumstances,' coach Quin Snyder said. 'It was an emotional day for him.'

Gordon Hayward will try to get back on track after finishing with a season-low seven points. He had scored 19.0 per game over his previous six, but has averaged just 12.0 on 30.6 percent shooting in his past three meetings with Toronto.

Snyder says his club found "an identity last year on the defensive end" by allowing an NBA-low 94.9 points. He believes Utah can still improve in that area this season despite ranking among the league's leaders with 91.8 points allowed per game.

The Jazz, however, have surrendered an average of 110.8 points while dropping four consecutive meetings with the Raptors (7-5) by 19.0 per game.

DeMar DeRozan has averaged 24.4 points in his last five matchups, though he did not play in a 123-104 win Dec. 3 in Salt Lake City. Backcourt mate Kyle Lowry picked up the scoring slack with a career-high 39 in that contest.

The All-Star guard is playing well heading into this meeting, averaging 23.2 points while hitting 16 of 38 (42.1 percent) from 3-point range over his last five games. Lowry and DeRozan finished with 28 points apiece and DeMarre Carroll added 17 with six steals Tuesday when Toronto threatened unbeaten Golden State before falling 115-110 for its fifth loss in seven games.

Coach Dwane Casey, though, is staying positive following back-to-back losses to open this five-game trip.

"We have something good going," he said. "Our guys competed. We play like that in any game and we're going to give ourselves a chance to win."

Toronto ranked sixth in defensive scoring (95.1) through seven games, but has surrendered 103.4 points per game in its past five. The club also allowed Sacramento and Golden State to shoot a combined 52.6 percent in the first two on the road swing.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Bulls (7-3) at Suns (6-4)

Date: November 18, 2015 10:30 PM EDT

The Phoenix Suns' backcourt has been flourishing of late. The Chicago Bulls are once again dealing with an injury to theirs.

In a matchup of teams riding three-game winning streaks, the Suns attempt to finish off a perfect homestand Wednesday night against a Bulls team that may not have Derrick Rose available.

Rose exited Monday's game against Indiana midway through the fourth quarter after spraining his left ankle. Though the injury isn't believed to be serious, it wouldn't be surprising if Chicago (7-3) rests the 2011 league MVP considering his history of medical issues and a showdown with defending NBA champion Golden State on tap Friday.

"My ankle is a little bit sore, but I'm just happy nothing's tore or broken," said Rose, who tallied 23 points on a season-best 9-of-18 shooting in the 96-95 win. "I'll be all right."

Kirk Hinrich and E'Twaun Moore both saw time at point guard following Rose's departure, though Chicago will likely lean more heavily on Jimmy Butler if he sits.

That was the case down the stretch Monday, with Butler hitting a key jumper with 1:24 remaining and blocking Paul George on a potential game-winning shot in the final seconds.

Butler finished with 17 points after scoring a season-high 27 in Friday's 102-97 win over Charlotte. The All-Star guard is averaging a team-leading 19.2 per game.

The Suns' best run of the young season has been sparked by strong guard play as well, with Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight each averaging 25.7 points in three straight double-digit victories on this homestand.

Knight posted his first career triple-double Monday, compiling 30 points, a career-high 15 assists and 10 rebounds in a 120-101 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers. He joined Magic Johnson, Pete Maravich and Russell Westbrook as the only players in NBA history to record a game with 30 points, 15 assists, 10 rebounds and four steals.

Bledsoe eclipsed 20 points for a fifth consecutive outing and is scoring 23.0 per game on 49.7 percent shooting, second only to Stephen Curry among guards with at least 100 shot attempts.

"They feed off each other," Lakers guard Lou Williams said of Bledsoe and Knight. "One night Eric Bledsoe can be the high guy then the next night it's Brandon Knight. It's tough to guard guys when they have it going like this."

T.J. Warren also has raised his play, with the second-year forward shooting 65.0 percent while averaging 15.5 points over his last four. He finished 9 of 13 from the field for a career-high 19 points Monday.

"The chemistry for this team is pretty good right now," coach Jeff Hornacek said. "They're all cheering each other on. A good sign for a coach to see is them all supporting each other. When you see that, good things happen."

The Suns (6-4) have won their last two despite Markieff Morris being sidelined by a sprained left knee. He's expected back for this game after practicing fully Tuesday. His career averages of 8.0 points and 27.3 percent shooting versus the Bulls are his worst against any opponent.

Chicago, which begins a four-game trip, had won five straight in Phoenix before a 99-93 loss Jan. 30. Pau Gasol had 22 points and 14 rebounds as the Bulls won 112-107 at home in the teams' most recent meeting Feb. 21.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds: Wednesday, November 18 2015 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

I loved the Houston Rockets' acquisition of Denver point guard Ty Lawson this offseason, especially as the Rockets gave up next to nothing to get him. Lawson is a very good player and should have made Houston a better team because he's a better player than former starter Patrick Beverley is. But something is terribly wrong with that team right now. Houston was routed by Boston on Monday for its fourth straight loss, dropping the Rockets to 4-7. Coach Kevin McHale is hinting he might have to start bringing Lawson off the bench as he is averaging only 8.9 points and shooting an ugly .333 from the field and .273 from long range. McHale better do something soon or his job is going to be in jeopardy.

Nets at Hornets (-7, 196.5)

Charlotte was at the Knicks on Tuesday with P.J. Hairston doubtful for that with a right quad contusion and Jeremy Lamb questionable with a left shoulder strain. Brooklyn hosted Atlanta on Tuesday. The Nets won last season's series 2-1 but lost the one game in Brooklyn 115-91. Brook Lopez had 34 points -- his second-highest scoring game of last season -- in the most recent meeting, a 91-88 win in Charlotte.

Key trends: The road team is 4-1 against the spread in the past five meetings. The "over/under" has gone under just once in the past eight meetings.

Early lean: Nets and over.

Timberwolves at Magic (TBA)

Minnesota was in Miami on Tuesday and not sure if point guard Ricky Rubio was going to return from a four-game injury absence. Orlando is off a 108-99 loss in Washington on Saturday. The Magic played without guard Victor Oladipo for the second straight game. He's out due to a concussion, and there's no timetable for his return. The Magic swept the Wolves last season and have won 11 of the past 13 meetings overall and seven straight at home.

Key trends: The Magic are 5-1 ATS in their past six vs. the West. The under is 4-0 in Orlando's past four against teams with a losing record. The Wolves are 0-5 ATS in the past five meetings.

Early lean: Like Orlando whether Rubio plays or not.

Pacers at 76ers (TBA)

I don't even know why Philadelphia fans bother going to games at this point. It's just a joke what this franchise is doing. Philly dropped to 0-11 with Monday's 92-86 home loss to Dallas. The 76ers had 27 turnovers, which led to 28 Mavericks points. It was Philadelphia's 21st straight loss dating to last season. Indiana's three-game winning streak ended in Monday's 96-95 loss at Chicago. Paul George had a chance to win it at the end of regulation but didn't get off a good shot against Jimmy Butler. George did finish with 26 points, his third straight game with at least that many. Indiana played without guards George Hill (upper respiratory infection) and Rodney Stuckey (sprained right ankle). Hill should be back for this one at least but why the TBA.

Key trends: The Pacers are 7-0 ATS in their past seven vs. the East. The over is 11-1 in the Sixers' past 12 against the East.

Early lean: Pacers have enough even if Hill and Stuckey are out again.

Mavericks at Celtics (-5, 207.5)

In a way, the Celtics might benefit more from a Dallas win. That's because Boston gets the Mavs' 2016 first-round pick as long as it's outside the Top 7 courtesy of last season's Rajon Rondo heist. Dallas beat those 76ers on Monday behind 21 points from Dirk Nowitzki. He had sat out Saturday's win over Houston along with fellow starters Wesley Matthews and Chandler Parsons but it was just for rest. Matthews and Parsons also played Monday. Parsons had his best game of the season with 20 points. Boston won easily in Houston on Monday for its third straight win. The C's scored 39 points off 22 Houston turnovers.

Key trends: Dallas is 0-8 ATS in its past eight vs. the East. The under is 5-0 in Boston's past five overall.

Early lean: Celtics and under.

Kings at Hawks (TBA)

Atlanta was in Brooklyn on Tuesday and without Jeff Teague and Kent Bazemore (why the TBA here). Sacramento beat Toronto 107-101 on Sunday for its third straight win. DeMarcus Cousins dominated the Raptors with 36 points and is averaging 36.3 in the winning streak. After missing the previous game with a stomach virus, Rudy Gay had 26 points. Rajon Rondo had 14 assists, his fifth straight game in double digits. That's the longest streak for the Kings since 1985-86. Reserve point guard Darren Collison (hamstring strain) missed his fifth straight game. Rookie big man Willie Cauley-Stein took a blow to the head and didn't play after the first quarter.

Key trends: The Kings are 7-2 ATS in their past nine vs. teams with a winning record. The Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 at home. The over is 6-1 in the past seven meetings in Atlanta.

Early lean: I could see Kings winning this if those two Atlanta starters are out again.

Trail Blazers at Rockets (-6.5, 206.5)

Portland has regressed to where most people thought it would be, having dropped six straight. The Blazers managed just 80 points in Monday's loss at San Antonio. They had only 28 at halftime. Starting forward Meyers Leonard missed a third straight game with a shoulder injury and is doubtful for Wednesday. McHale can't start Beverley over Lawson yet because Beverley is dealing with a sprained ankle and is out indefinitely. I can't fathom how this high-powered Rockets team has failed to score more than 98 points during the four-game skid.

Key trends: The road team is 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings. The over is 13-3 in the past 16.

Early lean: Rockets and over.

Pelicans at Thunder (-8.5, 209)

This is the first game of an ESPN doubleheader and will have live betting at sportsbooks. New Orleans hosted Denver on Tuesday. Oklahoma City lost a second straight on Monday, 122-114 in Memphis despite 40 points from Russell Westbrook. The Thunder remain without Kevin Durant for likely two more games. Guard Andre Roberson was out Monday with the flu. New Orleans won last season's series with the Thunder 3-1. Westbrook had 48 points in the most recent meeting. OKC has dropped two straight at home to the Pelicans.

Key trends: New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The over is 7-1 in OKC's past eight on Wednesday.

Early lean: Thunder and over.

Nuggets at Spurs (-12.5, 202.5)

Denver was in New Orleans on Tuesday with a few players either out or questionable. San Antonio beat the Blazers 93-80 on Monday for its fifth straight win. Manu Ginobili scored 14 of his 17 points in the fourth quarter as the Spurs pulled away. LaMarcus Aldridge was held to six points and six rebounds, his lowest output since signing with the Spurs. San Antonio was 4-0 against Denver last season and has won five straight at home in the series and seven in a row overall.

Key trends: The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The over is 4-1 in those past five.

Early lean: San Antonio and over.

Raptors at Jazz (-2.5, 190)

Toronto was in Golden State on Tuesday. Utah ended a three-game losing streak with a 97-96 win in Atlanta on Sunday to conclude a four-game road trip. Rudy Gobert had a game-high 11 rebounds and 11 points. He had missed the previous two games with a sprained left ankle. Utah snapped an eight-game losing streak to Atlanta. The Raptors swept last season's series with the Jazz.

Key trends: Utah is 5-1 ATS in its past six vs. the East. The over is 4-1 in Utah's past five at home. Toronto has covered four straight in the series.

Early lean: Utah and under.

Bulls at Suns (TBA)

Your ESPN nightcap with live betting. I know you will be shocked to hear this, but Derrick Rose is hurt again. He sprained his ankle in Monday's win over Indiana; Rose thinks it's only a strain, but the Bulls will take a closer look at it Tuesday. Knowing Rose's luck, the foot will need to be amputated or something. I obviously wouldn't expect to see Rose here as he's not the quickest healer. The Suns routed the Lakers on Monday behind the first career triple-double from guard Brandon Knight, who had 30 points, 15 assists and 10 rebounds. Phoenix was without forward and third-leading scorer Markieff Morris due to a strained left knee and he's questionable for Wednesday.

Key trends: Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its past five vs. the West. The Bulls have covered six straight in Phoenix. The under is 6-0 in the Suns' past six vs. the East.

Early lean: Suns will beat Rose-less Bulls.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Hot teams
-- Pacers won three of last four games (0-0AF).
-- Orlando won four of its last six games (0-1HF).
-- Hornets won five of their last eight games (1-1HF).
-- Boston won five of last six games (2-2HF). Mavericks won their last four games (2-2AU).
-- Sacramento won its last three games (1-1AU).
-- San Antonio won its last five games (3-1HF). Nuggets won four of their last five games (4-2AU).
-- Bulls won four of their last five games (1-0AU). Phoenix won its last three games (4-2HF).

Cold teams
-- 0-11 76ers are 0-6 at home, 2-4 vs spread.
-- Minnesota lost last four games, by 8-4-13-9 (6-0AU).
-- Nets lost nine of last eleven games, but covered last four.
-- Oklahoma City is 3-5 in its last eight games (4-2HF). Pelicans lost last four games, by 8-19-8-17 points (1-5AU).
-- Trailblazers lost last six games, covering once. Houston lost its last four games, all as favorites (0-5HF).
-- Hawks lost four of last five games (0-5 vs spread).
-- Toronto lost five of its last seven games (3-1AU). Utah lost three of its last four games (1-1HF).

Series records
-- Pacers won six of last seven games with Philly, covering three of last four.
-- Magic won four of last five games with Minnesota.
-- Nets won seven of last ten games with Charlotte.
-- Mavericks won nine of last ten against Boston (7-3 vs spread).
-- Pelicans won four of last five games with Oklahoma City.
-- Trailblazers won three of last four games with Houston.
-- Kings lost last ten games with Atlanta (1-9 vs spread).
-- Spurs won last seven games with Denver (5-2 vs spread).
-- Raptors won their last four games with Utah.
-- Bulls won seven of last nine games with Phoenix.

Totals
-- Seven of last nine Indiana games stayed under.
-- Four of last six Minnesota games went over total.
-- Four of last five Charlotte-Brooklyn games went over.
-- Seven of last eight Boston games stayed under total.
-- Three of last four New Orleans games stayed under.
-- Seven of last nine Portland games went over total.
-- Nine of last ten Sacramento-Atlanta games went over.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine San Antonio games.
-- Six of last seven Toronto-Utah games went over total.
-- Six of last eight Chicago games stayed under total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Spurs go for six straight'

San Antonio is coming into this game ridding a five game (4-1 ATS) win streak along with the second best record in the Western Conference at 8-2 with a profitable 7-3 record at the betting window. San Antonio loves home cookin'. The Spurs haven't lost at home this season (4-0, 3-1 ATS) and have compiled a 26-3 regular season record the last twenty-nine before the home audience (18-8-2 ATS). Meanwhile, Nuggets off to a 6-5 SU/ATS start have a 3-3 (4-2 ATS) record on the road, 8-21 (16-12-1 ATS) mark the past 29 on enemy hardwood.

The stats show this to be a challenge for the visiting Nuggets. Spurs have won seven straight in the series (5-2 ATS) and five in a row (2-3 ATS) at the AT&T Center in San Antonio. Additionally, Spurs have the advantage both on offensive and defensive ends. Spurs have an effective offensive rating of 103.6 (Pts per 100 POSSESSIONS) and league second-best effective defensive rating of 93.2. Denver hits the hardwood with an EOff-Rating of 100.5 and EDef-Rating of 103.1.

The betting market noting the disparity have Spurs handing Nuggets 13.5 points of offense. When handicapping this contest a few betting nuggets to ponder. Denver has been a gold-digger last 13 meetings in San Antonio posting a profitable 10-3 record against the betting line. The Nuggets also enter a sparkling 6-0 ATS as double digit road dogs without rest. Finally, Spurs have been a ho-hum 8-6-1 ATS as double digit home chalk.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Terriers (0-1) at Tar Heels (2-0)

Date: November 18, 2015 7:00 PM EDT

Despite playing without guard Marcus Paige, all the metrics look OK for top-ranked North Carolina through its first two victories.

Coach Roy Williams, though, is looking for improvement in Wednesday night's game against Wofford as part of the CBE Hall of Fame Classic.

The Tar Heels have averaged 91.5 points and 50.4 percent shooting while holding a 94-71 rebounding edge in victories over Temple and Fairfield. That's despite ACC preseason co-player of the year Paige - who averaged a team-high 14.1 points and shot 39.5 percent from 3-point range last season - continuing to recover from a broken bone in his non-shooting hand suffered in a freak injury at practice this month.

North Carolina has replaced Paige's production by committee in the backcourt with Nate Britt and Joel Berry II picking up the scoring slack. Britt is 7 for 10 from beyond the arc and 11 of 17 overall after matching his career high with 17 points in a 92-65 victory over the Stags on Sunday.

Berry hasn't finished well at the rim yet - he's 5 of 17 inside the arc and 5 of 10 from 3-point range - but has recorded four assists in each game as the two have become comfortable in the backcourt together.

'Point guards love playing with each other and I think that's pretty obvious,' Britt said. 'Joel and I like playing with each other and it's the same thing with Marcus. ... There's like a different type of chemistry that we have. We've shown that the last two games.'

Williams, though, has seen the need to fine-tune things within games. The offense has been stagnant and the defense has been lax at times, and the former is the coach's primary concern given that the undersized Terriers - no starter is taller than 6-foot-7 - are likely to challenge the Tar Heels to shoot over them from the perimeter.

"I expect we'll see it a lot unless it's a team that's got a stubborn coach like me that just believes in man-to-man so much and believes in accountability," Williams said about the prospects of opponents trying to slow them down with zone defenses. "We're a much better shooting team than we were last year. The guys have got more confidence.

"I haven't seen any Wofford tape to know what (coach) Mike (Young's) going to do. I coached Mike when he was at basketball camp in North Carolina one hundred years ago, so that's really something."

Wofford's tape of its 83-74 loss Friday to open the season shows a team reliant on the perimeter offensively - 27 of its 55 shots came from 3-point range - and a strong debut by freshman Fletcher Magee. The 6-4 guard had 22 points off the bench, making 5 of 9 from beyond the arc, but the defensively dogged Terriers were unable to overcome a 20-2 run in the first half.

"We have buttered our bread on the defensive end and to give up 83 points is unacceptable," said Young, whose team ranked 19th last season in scoring defense at 59.7 points per game. "We could never quite get that one stop or one flurry that would have really made it interesting."

Since joining Division I in 1995, Wofford is 0-22 against Top 25 opponents. North Carolina has won both meetings between the teams, the last coming in 1926.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Lumberjacks (0-2) at Bulldogs (0-0)

Date: November 18, 2015 9:00 PM EDT

Gonzaga is back on familiar ground and ready to play games that are going to count.

Thanks to a snafu during their trip to Japan, the 10th-ranked Bulldogs' home opener Wednesday against Northern Arizona is now their season opener.

Gonzaga and Pittsburgh managed to get through a half before unsafe playing conditions forced the postponement of Friday's Armed Forces Classic in Okinawa, held in a Marine Corps recreation center without air conditioning. Players for both teams had trouble maintaining their footing due to a buildup of moisture caused by high humidity and rising temperatures.

The Bulldogs trailed 37-35 at halftime.

'It was about who didn't fall down, that's what the game was coming down to," Gonzaga coach Mark Few said. "Whoever didn't fall was probably going to make a play."

The Bulldogs should be more comfortable at the McCarthey Center, where they've won 16 straight and 25 of 26 against non-conference opponents. An 85-74 loss to Illinois in December 2012 stands as the lone blemish over that stretch.

An 18th consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance also is fully expected. Though Gonzaga lost all three starting guards in Kevin Pangos, Byron Wesley and Gary Bell Jr., big men Przemek Karnowski and Domantas Sabonis again team with 6-foot-10 sharp-shooter Kyle Wiltjer for one of the nation's most imposing frontcourts.

The Kentucky transfer Wiltjer shot 46.6 percent from 3-point range while leading the Zags in scoring (16.8 ppg) during his first season in Spokane. The 6-foot-11 Sabonis had a 66.8 percent field goal percentage while averaging 9.7 points and 7.1 rebounds as a freshman reserve to help the Bulldogs go 35-3 and reach the NCAA Tournament regional finals, losing to eventual national champion Duke.

Wiltjer scored 15 points and went 3 of 6 from 3 against Pittsburgh, while Sabonis was 4 of 4 from the field and finished with eight points and five rebounds.

While the Bulldogs have yet to play an official game, Northern Arizona has lost twice during a challenging season-opening three-game trip. The Lumberjacks dropped an 82-70 decision to Washington State on Friday and suffered a 101-81 defeat to Mountain West preseason co-favorite Boise State on Monday.

The Lumberjacks lost three starters from a 2014-15 squad that won a school-record 23 games and made the CollegeInsider.com Tournament finals, but do have All-Big Sky first team selection Kris Yanku back at point guard. Guard Jaleni Neely, academically ineligible for all but 12 games last season, also returns and had a career-high 20 points against Boise State.

Northern Arizona went 11 of 24 on 3-point attempts Monday but allowed the Broncos to make 8 of 14 tries during a 54-point second half.

"It's a tough road stretch we're on right now," coach Jack Murphy told the school's official athletics website. "Defensively we need to clear some things up. I'm proud of how we're getting better."

Northern Arizona, picked fourth in the Big Sky preseason poll, faces Gonzaga for the first time since an 84-65 home win on Feb. 15, 1979, when both were Big Sky members. The Bulldogs hold an 11-5 series edge and have won all eight matchups in Spokane.

Gonzaga resided in the Big Sky from 1970-79 before leaving for the West Coast Conference.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Notes for Wednesday's games..........

Central Florida lost its opener 90-85 at Davidson, rallying from 12 down to take lead with 10:54 left. Knights have three starters back from 12-18 team; they also brought in some new guys, have decent guards. UC-Irvine held LMU to 0.75 ppp in 77-53 win in D-I opener. Anteaters has three starters back from 21-13 eam that almost beat Louisville in first NCAA tilt. Big West road teams are 3-5 vs spread. AAC home teams are 5-2.

Illinois split its first two games, allowing 83.5 ppg to North Florida and No Dakota State, who shot 46.7% from arc. Illini was down 14 early in second half in its win; they start two juniors, two seniors, but aren't at full strength due to injuries. Providence is very young except for star G Dunn; they won opener over Harvard by 12- Dunn took 25 of their 52 shots from floor. Big East home favorites are 7-4 vs spread.

Wake Forest scored 84 ppg in winning its first two games; they won at Bucknell as 2.5-point dogs Sunday. Deacons shot just 21.9% from arc in first two games- they won last two games with Richmond- their last three series wins were by 2 or less points or in OT. Richmond lost opener to local rival JMU, then made 15-31 in hammering Stetson Sunday. ACC home favorites are 7-4 vs spread; A-14 road underdogs are 1-2.

Toledo beat stiffs by 31 in only game; Rockets lost three starters from a 20-13 team, but brought in six freshmen and are optimistic. Youngstown State never led in 79-70 loss at Kent State in its opener; Penguins start two sophs, two juniors. Toledo won 47 games last two years, have hopes of first NCAA tourney since 1980. Horizon underdogs are 5-3 vs spread, 0-1 at home; MAC favorites are 6-2, 1-1 on road.

Eastern Michigan won last two games with Oakland by 2-12 points; they beat Vermont 70-50 in opener, afer being down 3 at half. EMU starts one senior- they were +12 in turnovers vs Vermont. Oakland might be the last team in America to play; Grizzlies have three starters back from 16-17 team that went 11-5 in Horizon. MAC road underdogs are 0-2 vs spread; Horizon home favorites are 1-2.

Cincinnati scored an uncharacteristic 101.5 ppg in winning first two tilts by 25-64 points, forcing 26 turnovers a game; Bearcats are starting three seniors- they made 11-24 from arc in last game. Bowling Green is on its third coach in three years; they beat a stiff by 17 in opener, starting two juniors, two seniors. AAC teams are 6-2 vs spread, 4-1 if favored. MAC teams are 6-4 vs spread, 0-2 as underdogs.

Kent State made 10-18 from arc in 74-51 win over Southern Illinois LY; Flashes were up 15 at half. Kent never trailed in 79-70 opening win over Youngstown; they had 18 offensive boards. Salukis won first two games, scoring 78.5 ppg despite shooting 21.9% from arc. MVC teams are off to dreadful 3-12 start vs spread this season; MAC teams are 6-4 against the spread, 1-3 on foreign soil.

Arkansas lost all five starters from LY; Razorbacks beat Southern by 18 in its opener (Southern won its next game, at Miss State). Hogs started two juniors, two seniors in opener- they made 8-15 from arc. Akron beat Cleveland State by 12 in opener, then waxed D-III team; Zips have four starters back from LY, but soph PG Robotham is still out. SEC home favorites are 3-4 against the spread.

New Mexico scored 84.5 ppg in winning first two games; sub Williams collapsed on floor during Sunday's win at New Mexico State, bruised his spinal cord. Lobos start three sophs, two juniors. Loyola beat UTSA by 12 in its opener, forcing 23 turnovers, but committing 21; Ramblers start three seniors, plus their star Doyle, a junior. MVC road dogs are 1-4 vs spread. Mountain West home favorites are 4-2 vs spread.

Belmont outscored Western Kentucky 12-4 over last 2:53 to nip WKU 65-64 LY; they were down 15 early in second half. Belmont won opener at Marquette, then lost at Arizona St by 9 two nights ago; Bruins forced turnovers on 21.6% of possessions in those games- they start two sophs, two juniors. Hilltoppers beat a stiff by 20 in its opener; they lost three starters from 20-12 team. C-USA road underdogs are 2-8 vs spread.

Virginia Tech got upset at home by Alabama State in opener, going 25-40 on foul line in game they led by 11 in first half. Hokies start two sophs, two juniors; ACC home favorites are 7-4 vs spread. Jacksonville State is lost its opener by 6 at Central Michigan, then won pair of non-D-I teams; Gamecocks were outscored 31-13 on foul line vs Chippewas. OVC road underdogs are 5-9 against the spread.

Southern Utah made 10-19 from arc in its opener, losing by 12 at good Utah team; Thunderbirds start two juniors, three seniors. UNLV starts three sophs and a frosh; they trailed Cal Poly at half in opener but won by a hoop, then crushed a stiff team Monday. Big Sky road underdogs are 4-5 vs spread; Mountain West home favorites are 4-2. UNLV is off to Maui after this game; they better not look past this good shooting team.

Saint Louis won its opener by 17 over Hartford; they don't start a senior. Billikens won last three games with SIU-Edwardsville by 6-27-24 points, they won by 6 LY after leading 55-54 with 5:02 left. Cougars won opener by 9 over Arkansas State; SIU-E only starts one senior. A-14 favorites are 3-6 vs spread; OVC underdogs are 6-9, 1-0 at home. Billikens have four starters back from LY's 11-21 team; they're expected to be better.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Wednesday's game

Northern Illinois won its last six games with Western Michigan, winning last three here 33-14/51-22/38-3; underdogs covered three of last four in series. Broncos won five of last six overall but lost to Bowling Green at home LW; WMU is 2-0 as home dog this year. NIU won/covered its last five games; they're 2-1 as home favorite. MAC home favorites are 12-7 against spread. Four of last five NIU games went over the total.

Central Michigan-Kent have met once since 2007; teams split last six in series. Chippewas are 5-5 SU, 7-2 vs spread; they're 2-3 SU on the road, Dogs covered four of the five games. CMU is 1-1 as a favorite. Kent lost last three games by combined score of 93-17; they're 1-1-1 as home dog, losing home games by 7-1-48 points. MAC home underdogs are 6-14 vs spread. Last three CMU games, last six Kent games stayed under total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Dayton Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Post: 8:35 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 79 - Purse:$4000 - FILLIES & MARES N/W $1750 IN LAST 4 STARTS


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 CAN'T BEST MY ART 3/1


# 6 BAD FEELING 7/2


# 3 LUCKY AMY 8/1


CAN'T BEST MY ART is the most competitive bet in this race. This solid standardbred looks dangerous. Look at the 79 average speed fig. Seems to have a great class edge based on the company she has faced. Deserves a shot given the successful win percent she sports. BAD FEELING - She's running in fine form, recording substantial speed ratings. An excellent choice. This mare has been performing versus some of the most competitive horses in this pack lately. LUCKY AMY - Overall markings appear formidable. Can't throw out at this point.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Post: 1:09 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 77 - Purse:$2700 - $4000 CLAIMING/ALLOWANCES NOT 1ST OR 2ND LAST 3 STARTS


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 2 SPENCER B 3/1


# 4 DOCTOR GATES 6/1


# 5 HURRICANE BREEZE 4/1


SPENCER B is the clear stand out wager in the eyes of the knowledge group. The panel of smart guys can't help but get behind this solid standardbred because the internal pace numbers fit well here at Monticello Raceway. If performance in the last contest is representative, this harness racer will have a very really good shot in this event. High last race speed fig. DOCTOR GATES - Really liked this gelding's last race. Ran a strong 79 speed rating. Major contender. When starting from the 4 position, a much higher than average win percentage has resulted. HURRICANE BREEZE - Positive instinct - racing well enough to contend in this gathering.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Churchill Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - SA - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $34000 Class Rating: 107

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $20,000 OR LESS IN 2014 - 2015. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE SEPTEMBER 18 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 8 GALTON 2/1


# 11 PURELY BOY 8/5


# 10 BOLD SHOT 12/1


GALTON has a formidable shot to take this race. Amoss has a solid 20 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. With a quite good 105 speed rating last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. Have to look at solely on class, with some of the most competitive class numbers of this group. PURELY BOY - Like the finishes in the last couple of races. Overall the Equibase Speed Figs of this animal look formidable in this contest. BOLD SHOT - With a quite good 101 speed rating last time out, will surely be a factor in this affair.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 64

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 18 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 18 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 9 COLORMEROYALE 2/1


# 1 JAMAALAREE 5/2


# 1A UBETTERTAKENOTES 5/2


I give the nod to COLORMEROYALE here. Ought to be carefully examined here on the basis of the figs in the speed section alone. Looks very good against this group of horses in this race and will almost certainly be one of the front-runners. Is a contender - given the 54 speed figure from her most recent race. JAMAALAREE - Displays strong speed figs on average overall when measured up against the rest of this field. Englehart has a solid 32 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. UBETTERTAKENOTES - Englehart has a reliable 32 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. Could beat this group of horses given the 53 speed figure garnered in her last outing.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Hawthorne - Race #5 - Post: 4:10pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,800 Class Rating: 74

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 C F'S RULER (ML=6/1)
#7 ELMOLEAT (ML=12/1)
#2 SAINT HENRY (ML=5/1)


C F'S RULER - This animal could be tough today, especially since Molina rode last out and now should be more familiar with this one. Have to like the way Slager has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today. ELMOLEAT - Likes to go to the lead and the fact that today is a shorter trip should be advantageous. Last raced at Indiana Downs carrying 6 pounds more. The lower weight carried right here should serve him well. SAINT HENRY - Bielby was aboard this gelding last time around the track and was impressed enough to take the equine right back. This rider and trainer have a favorable ROI when they team up.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BASES LOADED (ML=7/5), #4 SMOKEY'S BANDIT (ML=3/1),

BASES LOADED - Can't really wager on this kind of oft beaten public's top choice. SMOKEY'S BANDIT - 3/1 odds isn't enough for this one when examining the most recent outings.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #5 C F'S RULER to win if you can get at least 9/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
5 with [2,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,5,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #9 - Post: 4:20pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 49

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 MY LIL ANTO (ML=2/1)


MY LIL ANTO - When Rivera and Radosevich are put together on animals the ROI has been wonderful at +54. I believe the addition of the 'hood' today will help this filly focus her attention on racing.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 DR. JONES (ML=7/2), #3 WHERE'S THE WINE (ML=5/1), #8 CLASSY TENACITY (ML=6/1),

DR. JONES - 7/2 is too short of a price to take on most any horse that has run poorly in back to back races. If this affair shapes up right, all the speed horses will force a furious speed duel early. Too bad this horse is one of those front runners. WHERE'S THE WINE - Tough to wager on this vulnerable equine this time. Make her show you something in a sprint affair before you bet on her in a race of 5 1/2 furlongs. Run-of-the-mill speed rating in the last race at Fort Erie at 5 1/2 furlongs. Don't feel this steed will improve too much in today's race. Speed kills. Plenty of zip in this race compromises this horse's efforts. CLASSY TENACITY - Tough for anyone who saw this steed in her last event to wager on her this time.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - MY LIL ANTO - I like to check out the TrackMaster Platinum PPs to look for the top thoroughbred in earnings per start. This magnificent animal looks good to me so I'm making a bet on her.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#5 MY LIL ANTO to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
5 with [3,11]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #6 - 2:45 PM

8.0 FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $14,000.00 CLAIMING $26,000.00 PURSE

#5 SOURCESANDMETHODS
#1A SEAN AND MATT / #1 HEADY CREEK
#7 ALL MY TRAILS
#10 KERRY BOY

#5 SOURCESANDMETHODS is the overall speed leader in this claiming field racing at today's distance of a mile on the dirt, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of his last five outings, including "POWER RUN BOARD HITS" in his last two starts. #1A SEAN AND MATT, drops in class (-11), and has turned in "POWER RUNS" in four of his last five "adventures." The stablemate, #1 HEADY CREEK, comes off a win in his last start, but I also note that it did not qualify for my criteria to be tabbed, a "POWER RUN WIN."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northfield: Wednesday 11/18 Analysis + Pick Four ticket
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four ticket:

1,2,6 / 1,3,5 / 2,4 / 1,7 = $36


Best Bet: DUNKS BROTHER (7th)

Spot Play: CARELESS LOVE (9th)


Race 1

(1) ELZANE mare showed a good burst of speed last week earning a nice victory. (6) JAXTELLER well bred gelding is prone to miscues but can trot a good mile when he minds his manners. (7) CALLIT AS U SEEIT filly is very inconsistent from week to week but should offer a big price from a tough post.

Race 2

(8) BUZZEN GARLAND was impressive from the far outside last week. The 3-year-old will look to make it three straight against similar. (9) HANGIN JUDGE lightly raced trotter could be one of few threats to the top choice; threat. (5) MY D JET filly trotter owns a good burst of speed and can threaten with a good setup.

Race 3

(3) SOUTHERN CAROL filly will look to make it seven straight; short price. (4) LIBERTY BEACH has been facing much tougher competition and should offer value. (5) VERDICT owns decent gate speed but is best used underneath.

Race 4

In a really weak field, (2) THE THREE GEES probably needs a trip with cover for his best chance after tiring last week on the lead. (1) LILLIAN ROAD gets the best post and has been competitive at this level. (9) DANCING HEART well bred filly could use a fast pace to close into for her best chance.

Race 5

In the toughest race to handicap on the card, (4) MARKET TIMER will offer a monster price and picks up a good driver change. (2) PUTUPYOURDUKES should be in line for a ground saving trip up close. (1) MONARCH BLUECHIP lightly raced 3-year-old gets the best post and just needs to mind his manners for a chance.

Race 6

(2) FOREVER LOVER dominated a similar group last week and will look to repeat. (3) NOMINAL HANOVER just missed last out at this level; threat. (1) A MILLION THANKS owns the fastest in in the field and gets the best post.

Race 7

(1) DUNKS BROTHER owns a good brush and finds a weak field down in class. (4) MUCKMUCK WOODCHUCK has room to improve second start back off a layoff. (2) CIVIL CAUSE doesn't look the best on paper but could shake loose late for a piece at a price.

Race 8

(1) BOOTYSHAKERBAKER filly has raced gamely in three straight. (2) CAMMILICIOUS wasn't as good last out for a new trainer but should have a much easier trip this week. (6) FLY AMELIA FLY ships in from Indiana and finds a weak and inconsistent field; threat.

Race 9

(3) CARELESS LOVE went from sharp to just even last week up in class. The trotting mare drops back down and can score with a smooth trip. (5) TSUNAMI DREAM should be closer turning for home; threat. (1) SBM GEORGIA STAR mare is capable of a big effort if she minds her manners.

Race 10

(4) MARK SAID SO drew off last week against a similar bunch. (2) SLIDN TO YA RONNIE could have gained some confidence off a nice first victory. (1) TE'S CONMYSOCKSOFF gets the best post but couldn't parlay a perfect trip last week; use underneath.

Race 11

(7) LIMA THUNDER has been competitive against better on the year. (1) MAC'S DEVIL will be used aggressively down in class; threat. (8) PECK BLUE CHIP just needs to find a way into the race; threat.

Race 12

(4) STRONG PLAYIN KING burned cash last week making a bad break. The 4-year-old stallion has good ability but has yet to figure it out. (6) PRINCETON has been knocking on the door but has lacked stamina late; command a price. (5) ONEOCLOCKROCK drops back down in class but needs more; use underneath.

Race 13

(1) MACHINIST gets the best post and should be much closer turning for home. (3) LIMA SHOWOFF has just been racing evenly but finds a weak and inconsistent field. (9) JP ORAZIO picks up a big driver change; threat.

Race 14

(7) DO IT DOC'S WAY gets sent out for a low percentage pilot but will offer a big price in a wide open race. (1) EARLYMORNIARRIVAL drops in class but only owns one win on the year. (2) TIELER BEA HOTSPUR gets a much better starting post against a suspect bunch.

Race 15

(5) E R SISTER is always a threat at this level with a smooth trip. (2) MISS ARIEL could be in a good spot up close but is 0 for the year; command a price. (3) FOX VALLEY SMOOCH needs a lot of racing luck and a good setup.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Wednesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (1st) Grosero, 5-1
(7th) Hillaryinthehouse, 4-1


Charles Town (2nd) Danielle Deer, 4-1
(8th) First Chapter, 4-1


Churchill Downs (8th) Bear It, 5-1
(9th) Latent Revenge, 7-2


Delta Downs (1st) Bat Them Babyblues, 8-1
(9th) Cajun Streaker, 6-1


Finger Lakes (2nd) Mom's Chance, 4-1
(9th) El Mono Verde, 4-1


Gulfstream Park West (1st) High End Queen, 5-1
(10th) Song Memory, 7-2


Hawthorne (1st) Shestoyoungforubro, 7-2
(6th) Bella Carmella, 7-2


Mahoning Valley (6th) Clever Performance, 3-1
(9th) Dr. Jones, 7-2


Penn National (1st) Alberta Clipper, 3-1
(7th) With Sprinkles, 5-1


Remington Park (2nd) Peonari, 6-1
(5th) Awesome Tale, 7-2


Turf Paradise (4th) Traweek, 4-1
(7th) Runaway Cal, 3-1


Woodbine (1st) Gypsy Jazz, 6-1
(8th) Mr Grumpy, 6-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wednesday's six-pack

NFL trends with Week 11 around the corner........

-- Dallas covered eight of their last 12 road games.

-- Lions covered twice in their last twelve games.

-- Colts covered eight of last ten post-bye games.

-- 49ers are 2-7-1 vs spread in their last ten post-bye games.

-- Arizona is 15-6 against spread in its last 21 games overall.

-- Minnesota covered its last eight games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Wednesday

TIMBERWOLVES at MAGIC 7:05 PM

Take: MAGIC

Some decent scheduling dynamics are in play tonight as Minnesota continues its Florida swing with a stop at Orlando.

The Wolves are off a spectacular fourth quarter rally that vaulted them past the Heat. That was certainly an encouraging win for this Minnesota team, but there’s certainly a possibility the residual effects could show up tonight on the second of back to backs.

Orlando, on the other hand, will be very well rested as they have enjoyed a few days off that really came at the right time. Had the Magic been in action in any of the last three days, they would have had to take the court pretty shorthanded. But the early info is that almost everyone on the walking wounded list should be back tonight.

Victor Oladipo was back at practice yesterday, and while it was a non-contact session, he appeared to come through it okay. Speculation is that Oladipo will be able to clear the concussion protocol and get back in uniform tonight. The days off are also good news for Evan Fournier, who was dealing with a fever on Monday. But as he was not even mentioned in the late Tuesday update I received, I will assume he’s good to go tonight.

The Magic are also expected to get Jason Smith back in action this evening as his knee has responded to treatment. The only missing link figures to be CJ Watson, who is listed as questionable presently, but from what I’m gathering is unlikely to play tonight.

The play here is contingent on both Oladipo and Fournier being healthy enough to play, so I might be waiting for some time before I actually go ahead and play this. But assuming all systems are go, it’s the type of scheduling spot I like to play and with Orlando playing well at home thus far, I’ll be looking to side with the Magic.