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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free NBA Picks: Wednesday, Nov. 16, 2016, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

The New Orleans Pelicans have been an injury-ravaged mess for much of the early season, but they could become more competitive as soon as Wednesday night if Jrue Holiday returns. He has been away from his team since the preseason to tend to his wife, former US women's national team soccer player Lauren Holiday, as she recovers from the birth of the couple's first child and surgery to remove a benign tumor from the right side of her brain. She's apparently doing very well and thus Holiday is set to make his debut either Wednesday or Friday. Holiday is a good-but-rather-injury-prone player who averaged 16.8 points and 6.0 assists in 65 games last year. He's said to be in good shape, but his minutes will be limited at first to get into NBA form. The Pelicans' backcourt as currently constructed is one of the worst in the league, so this can only help.

Wizards at 76ers (TBA)

Washington is on a two-game skid after losing by 11 in Chicago on Saturday. That it was that close was a moderate surprise as the Wizards were without their starting backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal. The team is just being careful with Wall in the second of a back-to-back, while Beal is day-to-day with yet another injury. Thus you should see at least Wall here. The Sixers also have dropped two in a row following a 115-88 loss in Houston on Monday. Joel Embiid returned from a game off with 13 points and 10 rebounds for Philly. Washington was 4-0 vs. Philadelphia last year, although just one game was decided by double digits.

Key trends: The Wizards are 2-5 against the spread in their past seven following a double-digit loss. The "over/under" is 10-2 in Philly's past 12 vs. the East.

Early lean: 76ers to cover if Beal at least is out.

Pelicans at Magic (TBA)

New Orleans won its second game of the season Monday in beating visiting Boston 106-105. Anthony Davis had 25 points, 16 rebounds, four steals and two blocks. Tim Frazier drew a foul with 2.5 seconds left and hit the go-ahead free throw. Rookie shooting guard Buddy Hield made his first start in place of E'Twaun Moore for New Orleans. We shall see if that continues. It should, in my opinion. Orlando lost 88-69 in Indiana on Monday in Magic coach Frank Vogel's return to Indianapolis. It was a season low in points for the Magic. They have won three straight and five of the last seven meetings with New Orleans overall.

Key trends: The home team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The under is 5-2 in Orlando's past seven.

Early lean: Magic and under regardless.

Cavaliers at Pacers (+4, 209.5)

Has the makings of a letdown game for the Cavs as they had a big one at home vs. Toronto on Tuesday. Indiana dominated the Magic on Monday to end a two-game losing streak. Paul George returned from missing a game with a sprained ankle and had 13 points. The Pacers scored 20 points off 16 Magic turnovers. The Cavs won three of four meetings last year but lost the last one in Indianapolis.

Key trends: The Cavs are 0-6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings. The under is 15-6 in the Pacers' past 21 at home.

Early lean: Pacers and under.

Mavericks at Celtics (TBA)

Dallas lost a second in a row Monday, 93-77 at the Knicks. The Mavs are pretty terrible, but they have been without the injured Dirk Nowitzki and Deron Williams for a handful of games. Dirk is close to a return from his sore right Achilles. Boston lost by a point in New Orleans on Monday despite 37 points from Isaiah Thomas. He had tied the game late. Avery Bradley added 19 points and 10 rebounds. Al Horford missed his seventh straight game because of concussion symptoms, and it doesn't sound like he'll play here. Dallas won two close games against Boston last year and has taken its past three in Beantown.

Key trends: The Mavs are 7-0 ATS in their past seven in Boston. The over is 4-0 in the previous four meetings.

Early lean: Celtics should roll, Dirk or not.

Pistons at Knicks (TBA)

Detroit won a second consecutive game Monday, 104-88 over visiting Oklahoma City. Aron Baynes got plenty of playing time with Andre Drummond out with a sprained ankle and Baynes had 20 points and eight rebounds. Drummond is questionable for this one. New York beat Dallas by 16 on Monday. Coach Jeff Hornacek benched starting center Joakim Noah, he of the $72 million free-agent contract, at halftime and the Knicks took off with Kristaps Porzingis moving to center and guard Justin Holiday joining the other starters. Porzingis had 24 points. New York won for the first time in five games this season when scoring fewer than 100 points. Detroit has lost two consecutive games and 11 of the last 13 games at Madison Square Garden. But the Pistons beat the visiting Knicks 102-89 on Nov. 1.

Key trends: The home team is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings. The under is 13-3 in the Knicks' past 16 after a win.

Early lean: Wait on Drummond.

Bucks at Hawks (-8, 207.5)

Atlanta was in Miami on Tuesday. Milwaukee ended a two-game skid with a 106-96 home win over Memphis on Saturday. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 27 points, while Michael Beasley added a season-high 19. The Bucks scored off nearly every Memphis turnover, turning 13 of them into 24 points. The Bucks defeated the Hawks 2-1 in last season's three-game series. Both wins came in overtime.

Key trends: The road team is 9-3 ATS in the past 12 meetings. The under is 5-2 in the previous seven.

Early lean: Bucks and under.

Rockets at Thunder (-1.5, 219)

Houston blew out visiting Philadelphia on Monday. James Harden scored 23 of his 33 points in the first quarter and added nine assists and seven rebounds overall. The Rockets made 17 3-pointers and have made at least 10 3s in nine straight games, which ties a franchise record. Oklahoma City dropped a fourth straight Monday, 104-88 in Detroit. Russell Westbrook had 33 points, 15 rebounds and eight assists but no other starter scored even 10 points. Houston has won six of the past eight meetings but both losses are in OKC. Both teams have scored 100+ points in each of the past six meetings.

Key trends: The Rockets are 6-0 ATS in the past six meetings. The under is 7-2 in the past nine in OKC.

Early lean: Rockets and over.

Warriors at Raptors (+5, 218)

First of an ESPN doubleheader and an incredibly tough schedule for Toronto as it was in Cleveland on Tuesday. The Raptors and Nets are the only teams in the NBA this season scheduled to face last year's two conference champions on back-to-back nights. Golden State won a fourth straight Sunday, 133-120 over Phoenix. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson each had 30 points and Kevin Durant 29. The Warriors shot 50 percent or better from the field with at least 30 assists in a fourth straight game, the first time they have done so since 1994. Their offense is really starting to click. Toronto was swept by Golden State last year and has dropped two straight at home in the series.

Key trends: The home team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings. The over is 6-2 in the past eight.

Early lean: Warriors and over.

Suns at Nuggets (-5.5, 219)

Phoenix lost a shootout in Oakland on Sunday for its second defeat in a row. The Suns were even with the Warriors with under five minutes left. Eric Bledsoe and T.J. Warren scored 20 points apiece to lead six players in double figures for the Suns. Center Tyson Chandler rejoined the team but missed his fourth straight game following the death of his mother Tuesday from cancer. Denver dropped a fourth consecutive game Sunday, 112-105 in Portland. Rookie Jamal Murray had a career-high 19 in the loss. Gary Harris was out with a sprained ankle. These teams split four meetings last year, with Denver taking the final two.

Key trends: The Suns are 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings. The under is 4-1 in the past five.

Early lean: Nuggets and over.

Grizzlies at Clippers (-11, 198)

Second ESPN game. Memphis won at Utah 102-96 on Monday. Marc Gasol had a season-high 22 points. Mike Conley had 18 points and seven assists. Los Angles won its seventh straight game Monday, 127-95 over Brooklyn. Chris Paul had 21 points and nine assists and Blake Griffin added 20 points. The Clips' 127 points was a season high and they are the NBA's best team right now with an obscene point differential. Los Angeles won in Memphis 99-88 on Nov. 4 behind 27 points from Paul. The Clips have also taken the past three at home in the series.

Key trends: The Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in their past seven in L.A. The under is 4-0 in the past four there.

Early lean: Clippers and under.

Spurs at Kings (+7, 198.5)

San Antonio won its third straight Monday, 94-90 over visiting Miami despite the Spurs shooting just 26 percent in the second half. Kawhi Leonard had 24 points and 12 rebounds. The Spurs had their projected starting five for the first time this season in a home game but then Danny Green didn't play in the second half due to a groin injury. Sacramento has been off since a 122-120 OT loss in Portland on Friday. Both DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay missed tying shots on the Kings' final possession. San Antonio has won seven straight in the series, including opening the Kings' new Golden 1 Center with a 102-94 victory on Oct. 27. Leonard had 30 in the win and Cousins 37 points and 16 rebounds in a losing effort.

Key trends: The Spurs are 4-1-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The under is 5-0 in the previous five.

Early lean: Spurs and under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Wednesday’s games

Cleveland won four of last five games with Indiana, but Pacers are 6-0-1 vs spread in last seven series games. Home side won eight of last nine series games, with three of last four going over. Cavaliers won tough game vs Toronto last night; they’re 9-1 this year, 2-1 as road favorites- their three road games all stayed under. Indiana is 5-1 at home, 0-1 as a home underdog; three of their last four home games stayed under.

Pelicans lost five of last seven games with Orlando; last five series games stayed under total. New Orleans lost last three visits here, by 20-11-15 points. Pelicans are 1-4 on road, 2-3 as a road underdog; they won two of last three games after an 0-8 start. Four of their five road tilts stayed under. Magic lost four of its last five games; they’re 0-3 as home favorites. Under is 7-3 in their last ten games.

Washington won six games in row against the 76ers (4-2 vs spread); three of last four in series stayed under total. Wizards won last three visits here, by 29-5-9 points. Washington is off to a 2-7 start; they’re 0-4 on road, 0-1 as road favorite. Four of their last six games stayed under the total. 76ers are 1-9, 1-5 at home, 4-2 as home underdogs. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.

Hawks won seven of last ten games with Milwaukee; under is 5-2 in last seven series games. Bucks lost three of last five visits here (3-2 vs spread). Milwaukee won four of last six games, is 1-2 as a road underdog- over is 6-2-1 in their games this season. Atlanta won tough game in Miami last night; they’re won/covered last five games- three of their last four games stayed under the total.

Celtics lost their last seven games with Dallas, covered only two of last 10; over is 6-2 in last eight series games. Mavericks won last three visits to Boston, by 11-18-4 points. Dallas is off to a 2-7 start; they’re 1-5 on road, 2-4 as a road underdog. under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Boston lost four of their last six games; they’re 3-1 as home favorites. Last four Celtic games stayed under the total.

Detroit won six of last nine games with the Knicks; over is 4-2 in last six series games. Pistons lost by 12-13 in last two visits to Manhattan. Detroit is 1-5 on road (5-0 at home); under is 8-2 in their last ten games. New York is 3-5 in its last eight games; three of their last four games stayed under the total. Knicks are 3-2 at home this season (1-4 on road).

Golden State won seven of last eight games with Toronto (over 6-2); Warriors covered five of those eight games. Golden State won its last four games, is 4-1 on road, 2-3 as road favorites- their last four games went over total. Toronto lost tough game in Cleveland last night; they’re 7-3 this year, 4-2 at home, 3-0 as an underdog. Raptors’ last four games went over the total.

Houston won six of last eight games with Oklahoma City (7-1 vs spread); four of last six series games went over total. Rockets won three of last four games, are 6-4, 4-3 on road, 4-1 as road underdogs. Under is 7-2 in their last nine games. Thunder lost last three home games by 10-2-2 points; they’ve lost last four games overall, are 3-3 as home favorites. Three of last four OKC games went over total.

Suns won seven of last ten games with Denver but lost last two; four of last five series games stayed under total. Phoenix won four of its last six visits to Denver. Suns lost four of last five games, are 3-8, 1-5 on road, 4-2 as road underdogs. Nuggets lost their last four games; four of their last five games went over- they’re 0-3 at home and were favored in two of those games.

Spurs won their last seven games with Sacramento (4-1-1 vs spread in last six); last five series games stayed under total. Kings lost last four visits to Alamo, but covered three of those four games. San Antonio won last three games, are 3-1 as road favorites; their last four games stayed under. Sacramento is 4-7, 2-2 at home, 1-0 as home dogs- they lost six of last eight games. Three of their last four games stayed under.

Clippers won five of their last six games with Memphis but are 3-6 vs spread in last nine series games; six of last seven series games stayed under. Grizzlies lost last three visits to Staples (vs Clippers) by 26-2-8 points. Memphis is 5-5, 1-3 on road, 1-3 as road underdogs; over is 2-0-1 in their last three games. Clippers are rolling at 10-1, 6-1 vs spread as home favorites- their last three games went over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Brown Bears (1-1) at Rhode Island Rams (2-0)

Date: November 16, 2016 7:00 PM EDT

Even with a big weekend awaiting, Rhode Island coach Dan Hurley doesn't think his No. 21 Rams will have trouble focusing on Wednesday night's Hall of Fame Tip-off game against Brown at Kingston, R.I.

That's Brown, a longtime local rival.

"We know what it is when we play Brown," Hurley said after the Rams disposed of Marist 107-65 on Monday night.

The Bears of the Ivy League are 1-1 in this early season, losing to now-rated Cincinnati before opening their home season with a win over Niagara on Sunday behind Steven Spieth with a career night of 27 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists.

"(Brown coach) Mike (Martin) ... and the job he does with those guys in terms of how hard it is to play, how hard-nosed they are, their ability to shoot the ball and spread you out," said Hurley. "They're playing pretty small. Every time we've played them it's been a hell of a game."

Last year, the Rams, dressing only seven scholarship players, pulled out an 88-85 victory over the Bears. URI has won four straight, 13 of the last 14 and 18 of the last 20, leading a series that started in 1909-10 by 104-53.

Last year's OT game should be more than enough for URI to stay focused on Brown -- even with a date with No. 24 Cincinnati and then quite possibly No. 1 Duke over the weekend at the Mohegan Sun Casino in Connecticut waiting. Duke faces Penn State on Saturday with the winners and losers pairing off the next day.

Brown plays Albany and Marist in the tournament's other bracket at the same location.

"Our team can score the basketball," said Martin. "We play at a pretty good pace and we have a lot of guys that can make plays."

No one made more of them Sunday than Spieth, who came within one assist from becoming only the third Ivy Leaguer to record a triple-double. Dartmouth's Ian McGinnis (2000) and Brown's Jason Forte (2004) are the others.

Spieth, a senior, hit only four baskets (on nine tries) but went 19-for-22 from the foul line in his career game. Obi Okalie scored 15 points and grabbed five rebounds and freshman Joshua Howard scored all 14 of his points in the first half.

"I'm happy with today's win," Martin said after the game. "We put in a lot of hard work in the off-season and it paid off today with a victory. We did enough defensively and got to the free-throw line."

And get to 1-1 before URI.

"I've gotten to know Mike over the last couple of years, he's an excellent coach," Hurley said. "He will have his guys ready on Wednesday and we need to have the right mindset in that game."

The Rams have dealt with sluggish defensive starts in each of their two games but had no trouble waking up in plenty of time -- upping their non-conference record on their Ryan Center home floor to 74-25. They have won 13 of their last 15 and 22 of their last 26 non-league games at home.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Cal Irvine Anteaters (1-1) at California Golden Bears (1-0)

Date: November 16, 2016 11:00 PM EDT

No. 25 Cal and UC Irvine, who play each other Wednesday (11 p.m. ET, Pac-12 Network) at Cal's Haas Pavilion, have two things in common: Both blew out South Dakota State recently, and neither has had its best player available so far.

In its only game, Cal (1-0) took apart South Dakota State 82-53, but the Bears did so without 6-foot-11 All-American forward Ivan Rabb. He sprained his toe three weeks ago on a closed scrimmage against St. Mary's, and he has been limited since. Rabb did not receive medical clearance to play against the Jackrabbits and has been listed as day-to-day since.

"Hard to say when we expect him back. I don't think he'll be out long," Cal coach Cuonzo Martin said after Friday's game. "He's been in practice but not contact."

Cal returns three starters from last season's 23-11 squad, but only one of them, Jabari Bird, was a starter against South Dakota State. Two newcomers started that game -- Grant Mullins, a graduate transfer from Columbia who scored 13 points, and freshman Charlie Moore, who struggled with 1-for-8 shooting but figures in Cal's plans.

"Obviously the fact that he started could tell you that Charlie's a good player," said Cal forward Roger Moute a Bidias, who came off the bench to score 12 points. "As a freshman starting like that, that's big. Obviously he was a little bit nervous. He will be all right as he adjusts and gets used to it. I think he will be great for us."

Point guard Sam Singer also came off the bench to score 14 points, sharing top team scoring honors with Bird, and it remains to be seen which players Martin will put on the floor to start Wednesday's game.

There is also uncertainty regarding UC Irvine's starters. Irvine played its first two games without its only returning starter in Luke Nelson, an all-Big West first-team selection last year. Nelson is questionable for the game against Cal as well.

Anteaters coach Russell Turner had hoped Nelson would return for Monday's game against South Dakota State, but again Nelson watched from the bench as guard Jaron Martin scored a career-high 24 and forward Jonathan Galloway collected a career-best 14 rebounds in a 73-58 victory over the Jackrabbits.

"Jaron Martin was the best player on the court today and often the team with the best player wins," Turner said, according to the Orange County Register.

Irvine showed significant improvement from its performance in a 72-56 loss at home to Utah State in the season opener.

"When you get taken apart like we did on Friday night, I think everybody wondered a little bit," Turner said. "That game was a blowout, but tonight we turned it around."

Several Irvine freshmen showed promise. Freshman guard Eyassu Worku scored a team-high 11 points in the opener, and Worku and freshmen Max Hazzard and Evan Leonard combined for 23 points against South Dakota State.

"I have to remind myself that the guys we started haven't started many games," Turner said after the opening loss. "I do like how our freshmen came in and competed."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Wednesday’s games

Butler won its opener by 37 over Northern Colorado; Bulldogs forced 19 turnovers- they have 3 starters back from 22-11 team. They’re 12-2 in last 14 non-league games, with losses to Miami/Virginia LY. Northwestern won its first two games by 31-14 points, also beating a Big Sky team (Eastern Washington) in its last game. Wildcats are 14-1 in last 15 non-league games, but they played #334 (out of 351) non-league schedule LY. Big 14 teams are 6-5 vs spread in last 11 games as an underdog vs Big East teams; they’re 10-12 SU this year and last.

Rhode Island is a top 25 team; they’ve won last four games with in-state rival Brown, but LY they needed OT to beat Bruins after trailing by 15 with 11:18 to play. Rams are healthier this year, won first two games this year by 23-42 points over Dartmouth/Marist. Brown lost by 29 at Cincinnati in its opener, then beat Niagara at home. Bruins have 4 starters back from an 8-20 team that went 3-11 in conference play. Atlantic 14 teams are 8-1 SU in last nine games vs Ivy League teams (6-3 vs spread). URI could be looking ahead to Saturday game with Cincinnati.

Tulsa lost 7 of its top 8 scorers from LY and then lost its opener at home to Jacksonville State; not good. Gamecocks shot 67% inside arc against Tulsa, so their defense needs work. Golden Hurricane made 10-22 on arc, beat Wichita State by 10 at home LY, big win for them. Revenge is in the air here. Wichita won its first two games by 46-37 points; they lost VanVleet/Baker from LY’s team but still has talent, with 2 starters back from LY’s 26-9 team. AAC teams won/covered last four games against MVC squads.

Former Wyoming coach McClain is rebuilding Ill-Chicago program; this is his second year. Flames lost opener 82-80 at San Francisco, making 11-23 on arc but only 15-28 on foul line. UIC rallied from 17-point second half deficit to tie USF before losing in last minute. UTSA lost its first two games by 3-8 points to Fresno/Oregon State. Roadrunners have new coach; they made just 25% of 3’s in first two games. C-USA teams are 2-0 vs Horizon teams last two years, winning by 1-5 points (1-1 vs spread).

Memphis/Milwaukee both have new coaches, but Tubby Smith is Memphis coach- he is very good. Tigers beat a stiff by 19 in their opener. Memphis has 2 starters back from a 19-15 team that was considered a disappointment. Milwaukee fired its coach LY after a 20-13 season; they lost all five starters, hired a coach off of Michigan’s staff and are starting over. Panthers beat a cupcake I’ve never heard of in their opener. AAC/Horizon teams split two meetings the last two years; favorites covered both games. AAC home favorites are 3-2 against the spread.

Cal-Santa Barbara won 68-61 at San Francisco LY, after leading 41-13 late in first half; Gauchos lost their opener by 14 at home to Omaha- they generally play better after New Year’s. USF is blew a 17-point second half lead in its opener but beat UIC 82-80; Dons have a new coach, only one starters back from LY’s 15-15 team. USF forced 25 turnovers in its first game, surviving 20 TO’s of their own. Big West teams are 4-4 vs spread in last 8 games as favorites vs WCC teams; they’re 10-16 SU vs WCC squads the last two years.

UNLV has a new coach, almost an entirely new roster this year; they lost opener by 8 at home to South Alabama. Rebels outscored USA 24-4 on foul line, but were 2-15 behind arc, -7 in turnovers. Cal-Riverside lost its opener by 16 at Portland (shot just 5-27 on arc), then beat a stiff easily last game. Highlanders have a solid frontcourt, with 3 starters back from LY’s 14-19 team, but they haven’t had a winning season since 2009. Mountain West teams are 7-5 in last 12 games vs Big West teams, 2-5-1 vs spread when favored.

Cal Bears beat South Dakota State by 29 in their opener and NBA prospect Rabb didn’t play; Bears made 12-32 on arc, led 40-28 at half. Cal-Irvine is much younger than its been last few years; Anteaters beat same South Dakota State team by 15, after losing its opener at home to Utah State by 16. UCI has a young team, will play faster with 7-6 center Ndiaye off to pro ball. Cal will be looking ahead to its next game, against San Diego State, might overlook Irvine. Pac-12 teams are 12-9 vs spread in last 21 games vs Big West opponents.

Morehead State beat Lipscomb by 14 in its first D-I game this year; Eagles beat Marshall last three years, by 8-9-24 points. Morehead was #21 in country LY at forcing turnovers; lost 3 starters from a 23-14 team that lost to Nevada in finals of CBI tourney. Marshall is coached by Mike D’Antoni’s brother; they played #3 tempo in country LY while going 13-7 in their last 20 games of what was a breakthrough season for them. Herd has has 4 starters back from LY’s team. OVC teams are 9-5-1 vs spread in last 15 games against C-USA sides.

Fort Wayne was 24-40 on foul line in its opener, a 9-point loss at Arkansas; Hogs shot 58% inside against them, in an 80-possession track meet. Mastodons have 3 starters back from 24-10 team that lost in first round of NIT. Illinois State lost opener 73-70 at Murray State, after blowing 8-point lead in second half. Redbirds have 4 starters back from an 18-14 team and is expected to challenge for MVC title this winter. ISU played only six guys more than 11:00. Summit League teams are 4-2 vs spread in last six games vs MVC teams.

Jacksonville State won its opener at Tulsa for new coach Harper, who was fired by Western Kentucky last spring- they lost last game by 26 to Missouri State. JSU turned ball over 28.3% of time (#331) in its first two games. Harper will know WKU squad very well, seeing how he coached them the last five years. Hilltoppers’ new coach is former Miss State coach Stansbury; WKU won its opener by 13 over Alabama State, outscoring them 24-5 on foul line.* OVC teams are 9-5-1 vs spread in last 15 games against C-USA sides.

SE Missouri lost its opener by 19 at Illinois; they were only 2-5 on foul line. Redhawks went 5-24 LY under former Miss State coach Ray (he replaced Stansbury at MSU), who brought in lot of new players this year to raise talent level. Western Illinois lost its opener by 27 at Kansas State; Leathernecks upset Wisconsin in Madison LY, but are now 3-16 in last 19 D-I games. Summit League teams are 7-1 SU in last eight games (6-2 vs spread) in last eight games against OVC squads.* OVC road underdogs are 5-4 vs spread so far this season.

Northern Illinois won its opener in OT over Indiana State- they got to foul line 37 times. Huskies beat Idaho last two years by 11-7 points. NIU has 3 starters back from LY’s 21-13 team that was NIU’s first 20-win team in 20 years. Idaho beat a stif in its first game; Vandals were 21-13 LY, their first winning season in four years. Idaho has 4 starters back from that team, but everyone in Big Sky has lot of starters back this year. Big Sky teams are 2-1 vs spread in last three games with MAC teams. Big Sky road underdogs are 7-6 against the spread this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

CBB*|*MOREHEAD ST*at*MARSHALL
Play On - A favorite (MARSHALL) with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season
153-95*over the last 5 seasons.**(*61.7%*|*48.5 units*)
6-7*this year.**(*46.2%*|*-1.7 units*)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Warriors Make Northern Trip to Face Toronto Raptors'

The Toronto Raptors and the Golden State Warriors are both off to hot starts this season. The Warriors will head to Toronto on Wednesday night to take on the Raptors in a meeting of two teams with NBA title hopes.

The Warriors ran their record to 8-2 in a 133-120 win on Sunday at home over Phoenix. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson dropped 30 points each, while Kevin Durant added 29 for the Warriors, who hit 16 of their 33 three-point attempts. The Warriors are off until their trip to Toronto, so they'll be well-rested for this game.*

The Raptors went to 7-2 after a 118-107 home win over New York on Saturday. DeMar DeRozan continued his blazing start with 33 points for the Raptors, with Kyle Lowry adding 19 points. Toronto plays Cleveland on Tuesday, which means the Raptors have a tough back-to-back against last season's finalists, and the last two NBA champions.*Golden State is 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS in their last five meetings with the Raptors, including four wins in a row SU.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview and Prediction: Ball State Cardinals (4-6) at Toledo Rockets (8-2)
By David Racey
Wednesday, November 16, 2016 at 7:00 pm (Glass Bowl)
The Line: Toledo Rockets -18 -- Over/Under:
TV: ESPN2

The Ball State Cardinals will travel to play the Toledo Rockets in a MAC College Football Game on Wednesday night.

The Toledo Rockets are 8-2 (5-1) this season after beating Northern Illinois by a score of 31-24 in their last game. Toledo had to come from behind in the fourth quarter to get this win and stay in the hunt for a MAC Title. The Toledo offense is averaging 39.4 points per game with 200.2 rushing yards and 339.5 passing yards per game. Logan Woodside is completing 70.8% of his passes for 3328 yards, 37 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions for Toledo. Kareem Hunt has rushed for 1048 yards and 7 touhdowns, while Terry Swanson has added 525 yards and 3 touchdowns for the Rockets. Corey Jones has caught 53 passes for 631 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Michael Roberts has added 38 catches for 448 yards and 12 scores for Toledo. The Toledo defense is giving up 22.9 points per game with 160.6 rushing yards and 229.5 passing yards per game. DeJuan Rogers has led the Toledo defense with 61 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, and 0.5 sacks, while John Stepec has added 50 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss, and 4.5 sacks. Jameson Vest has gone 10-15 on field goals, with a long of 47 yards.

The Ball State Cardinals are 4-6 (1-5) this season after losing to Eastern Michigan by a score of 48-41 in their last game. Ball State jumped out to an early lead in this game but could not hold onto it in the second half. The Ball State offense is averaging 28.5 points per game with 226 rushing yards and 230.2 passing yards per game. Riley Neal is completing 60.1% of his passes for 2093 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions for Ball State. James Gilbert has rushed for 1196 yards and 12 touchdowns, while Riley Neal has added 359 yards and 7 scores for the Cardinals. KeVonn Mabon has caught 67 passes for 794 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Damon Hazelton Jr. has caught 38 passes for 388 yards and 3 touchdowns for Ball State. The Ball State defense is giving up 30.3 points per game with 156.6 rushing yards and 313.1 passing yards per game. Sean Wiggins has led the Cardinals defense with 87 tackles and 4 tackles for loss, while Martez Hester has added 70 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 1 interception. Morgan Hagee has gone 11-15 on field goals, with a long of 44 yards.

Ball State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games. The under is 4-1 in Ball State’s last 5 road games. Toledo is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 November games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against a team with a losing record. The under is 3-0-1 in Toledo’s last 4 games. The under is 4-0 in these two teams last 4 meetings.

Toledo comes into this game as a big favorite and for good reason. Toledo will be at home for this game and has a very explosive offense. Ball State needs to win their remaining two games in order to get to a bowl game, but will have a tall task in this one. Toledo should come out more focused than last week and get the job done.

DAVID'S PICK
Toledo Rockets -18

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview and Prediction: NIU Huskies (3-7) at Eastern Michigan Eagles (6-4)
By David Racey
Wednesday, November 16, 2016 at 8:00 pm (Rynearson Stadium)
The Line: Eastern Michigan Eagles +3 -- Over/Under:
TV: ESPNU

The Northern Illinois Huskies will travel to play the Eastern Michigan Eagles in a MAC college football game on Wednesday night.

The Eastern Michigan Eagles are 6-4 (3-3) this season after beating Ball State by a score of 48-41 in their last game. Eastern Michigan fell down early in this game but was able to come back in the second half for the win. The Eastern Michigan offense is averaging 31.5 points per game with 142.4 rushing yards and 301 passing yards per game. Brogan Roback is completing 59.8% of his passes for 1855 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions for Eastern Michigan. Ian Eriksen has rushed for 570 yards and 7 touchdowns, while Todd Porter has rushed for 173 yards and 1 touchdown for Eastern Michigan. Sergio Bailey II has caught 46 passes for 655 yards and 4 touchdowns, while Antoine Porter has added 38 catches for 454 yards and 4 scores for the Eagles. The Eastern Michigan defense is giving up 31.2 points per game with 152.1 rushing yards and 284.2 passing yards per game. Jason Beck has led the Eastern Michigan defense with 81 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, and 0.5 sacks, while Vince Calhoun has added 57 tackles and 2 interceptions. Paul Fricano has gone 14-17 on field goals, with a long of 46 yards.

The Northern Illinois Huskies are 3-7 (3-3) this season after losing to Toledo by a score of 31-24 in their last game. Northern Illinois had the lead in the fourth quarter but let Toledo outscore them by a total of 14-3 in the final frame. The Northern Illinois offense is averaging 30.4 points per game with 233.8 rushing yards and 226.9 passing yards per game. Ryan Graham is completing 55.6% of his passes for 622 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions for Northern Illinois. Joel Bouagnon has rushed for 728 yards and 6 touchdowns, while Jordan Huff has added 490 yards and 1 touchdown for the Huskies. Kenny Golladay has caught 79 passes for 1029 yards and 8 scores, while Aregero Turner has added 36 catches for 324 yards and 2 scores for Northern Illinois. The Northern Illinois defense is giving up 31.9 points per game with 193.1 rushing yards and 262.1 passing yards per game. Sean Folliard has led the Huskies defense with 75 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks, while Jamaal Payton has added 62 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, and 1 interception. Christian Hagan has gone 9-14 on field goals, with a long of 41 yards.

Northern Illinois is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on turf and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 road games for Northern Illinois. Eastern Michigan is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. The under is 4-1 in Eastern Michigan’s last 5 home games. The road team is 11-3-1 ATS in these two teams last 15 meetings.

Eastern Michigan comes into this game as a home underdog, despite having the better record. Northern Illinois has struggled at times this season, but has had some close losses. Eastern Michigan has had success throwing the ball and should find some success against the NIU secondary. I like Eastern Michigan at home.

DAVID'S PICK
Eastern Michigan Eagles +3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Louisville Cardinals (9-1) at Houston Cougars (8-2)
By Brett Nault
Thursday, November 17, 2016 at 8:00 pm (TDECU Stadium)
The Line: Louisville Cardinals -14 - Over/Under:
TV: ESPN

The 6th ranked Louisville Cardinals will travel to TDECU Stadium to take on the Houston Cougars this Thursday night in College Football action.

The 6th ranked Louisville Cardinals won their 5th straight game and improved to 9-1 (7-1 AAC) on the season after defeating the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 44-12, this past Saturday. Louisville was down by a 12-3 margin at halftime however, scored 34 points in the 4th quarter to help pull away from Wake Forest. Louisville outgained Wake Forest by a 491-214 margin and rushed from an incredible 346 yards. Leading the way for the Cardinals was RB Brandon Radcliff who had 3 TD’s and 141 rushing yards on 11 carries. On the season, Louisville is averaging 49.6 ppg on 583.2 yards per game (313.2 passing, 270.0 rushing). Offensively, Louisville is led by Heisman Trophy favorite, Lamar Jackson who has accounted for a remarkable 46 TD’s (27 passing; 19 rushing). Jackson is averaging 289.8 passing yds/g and is the Cardinals leading rushing at 133.4 rushing yds/g. RB Brandon Radcliff (10.7 att/g, 76.8 yds/g, 6 TD) and RB Jeremy Smith (4.4 att/g, 30.8 yds/g, 7 TD) have been major contributors in the Cardinals backfield. James Quick (3.6 rec/g, 60.8 yds/g, 6 TD), Jamari Staples (3.4 rec/g, 52.6 yds/g, 2 TD), Cole Hikutini (3.8 rec/g, 52.6 yds/g, 6 TD), and Jaylen Smith (2.2 rec/g, 48.7 yds/g, 6 TD) are the leading receivers for Louisville. Defensively, Louisville is holding their opponents to an average of 21.3 ppg on 303.3 total yards per game (210.5 passing, 92.8 rushing).

The Houston Cougars won their 2nd straight game and improved to 8-2 (5-2 AAC) on the season after defeating the Tulane Green Wave, 30-18, this past Saturday. Houston used a big 1st half to take a 28-10 lead at halftime and was able to hold on for the victory without scoring any offensive points in the 2nd half. Houston was outgained by Tulane by a 341-287 margin and lost the turnover battle by a 2-1 margin. Leading the way for the Cougars was QB Greg Ward Jr. who completed 18 of 30 passes for 189 yards and 2 TD’s while also adding a rushing TD. On the season, Houston is averaging 37.6 ppg on 452.4 total yards per game (283.8 passing, 168.6 rushing). Offensively, Houston has been led by QB Greg Ward Jr. who has accounted for 25 TD’s (16 passing, 9 rushing). Ward Jr. is averaging 289.8 passing yds/g and 47.7 rushing yds/g. Duke Catalon has been the main threat in the backfield for the Cougars and has 2 TD’s while averaging 68.5 rushing yds/g. Linell Bonner (7.6 rec/g, 86.0 yds/g, 2 TD), Chance Allen (4.4 rec/g, 63.7 yds/g, 3 TD), and Steven Dunbar (4.3 rec/g, 58.5 yds/g, 5 TD) are biggest threats at the receiver position for Houston. Defensively, Houston is holding their opponents to an average of 21.3 ppg on 303.3 total yards per game (210.5 passing, 92.8 rushing).

The Cardinals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games and 29-13-1 ATS in their last43 road games. The Cougars are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. ACC opponents however, just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Louisville surprisingly couldn’t get their explosive offense going until the 4th quarter against Wake Forest however, the Cardinals did show how dangerous this team can be with Lamar Jackson leading the way. Houston enters this game with a solid 8-2 record however, the Cougars just don’t seem to have the same energy as they did at the beginning of the season and has struggle getting convincing wins against some of bottom teams of the AAC. This line has yet to be released but I’m currently leaning towards taking Louisville to cover a reasonable spread here as I think Cardinals will come out playing hard in this one knowing that their right back in the CFF Playoff picture once again.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview and Prediction: Arkansas State Red Wolves (5-4) at Troy Trojans (8-1)
By David Racey
Thursday, November 17, 2016 at 9:30 pm (Veterans Memorial Stadium)
The Line: Troy Trojans -9 -- Over/Under:
TV: ESPNU

The Arkansas State Red Wolves will travel to play the Troy Trojans in a Sun Belt college football game on Thursday night.

The Troy Trojans are 8-1 (5-0) this season after beating Appalachian State by a score of 28-24 in their last game. Troy is tied for the Sun Belt Conference lead with Arkansas State this season. The Troy offense is averaging 38.1 points per game with 197.4 rushing yards and 276.6 passing yards per game. Brandon Silvers is completing 63.5% of his passes for 2302 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions for Troy. Jordan Chunn has rushed for 1028 yards and 10 touchdowns, while Josh Anderson has added 221 yards and 1 touchdown for Troy. Deondre Douglas has caught 49 passes for 532 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Emanuel Thompson has added 49 catches for 470 yards and 5 scores for the Trojans. The Troy defense is giving up 21.6 points per game with 105.4 rushing yards and 265.1 passing yards per game. William Lloyd has led the Troy defense with 43 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, and 1 sack, while Cedarius Rookard has added 33 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, and 2 interceptions. Ryan Kay has gone 14-18 on field goals, with a long of 47 yards.

The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 5-4 (5-0) this season after beating New Mexico State by a score of 41-22 in their last game. Arkansas State has won 5 straight games and is tied for the lead in the Sun Belt standings. The Arkansas State offense is averaging 26 points per game with 243.4 passing yards and 137.9 rushing yards per game. Justice Hansen is completing 58.5% of his passes for 1793 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions for Arkansas State. Warren Wand has rushed for 607 yards and 5 touchdowns, while Johnston White has added 356 yards and 3 scores for the Red Wolves. Blake Mack has caught 29 passes for 522 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Warren Wand has added 18 passes for 207 yards and 3 touchdowns for Arkansas State. The Arkansas State defense is giving up 25 points per game with 181.1 rushing yards and 230.3 passing yards per game. Xavier Woodson-Luster has led the Arkansas State defense with 68 tackles and 3.5 tackles for loss, while Money Hunter has added 59 tackles and 1 interception. J.D. Houston has gone 9-14 on field goals, with a long of 43 yards.

Arkansas State is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. The under is 5-1-1 in Arkansas State’s last 7 games. Troy is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games. The under is 6-1-1 in Troy’s last 8 conference games. The over is 4-1 in these two teams last 5 meetings.

These teams come into this game battling for the lead in the conference standings. Troy will have the advantage of being at home and having the better record, but Arkansas State has been red hot in their last 5 games. Troy looks to have the better offense and I think that will be the difference in this game.

DAVID'S PICK
Troy Trojans -9

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Wednesday’s games

Ball State lost its last three games, allowing 561 yards, 45 pts/game, but all three of those games were on road- they’re 3-2 SU on road, 3-0 vs spread as road underdogs, with losses on road 30-20 at Indiana, 24-21 at Central Michigan. Cardinals lost five of last seven games with Toledo; favorites are 6-3 vs spread in last nine series games. Toledo is 2-2 as a home favorite this year, winning home games by 35-7-14 points- they lost to Ohio at home. Rockets could be looking ahead to next week’s game with unbeaten Western Michigan. MAC home favorites are 6-15 vs spread this season.

Eastern Michigan became bowl eligible LW after going 7-41 the last four years; Eagles allowed 38 pts/game the last three weeks, but lost last two home games by 15-13 points. EMU covered six of last seven games, is 5-1 as an underdog this year. Northern Illinois won its last eight games with Eagles (6-2 vs spread), running ball for 327.3 yds/game the last three years. NIU is playing first road game in 39 days; they scored 89 points in winning last two games after starting season 1-6. NIU is 2-1 as a favorite this season. MAC home underdogs are 6-10 vs spread.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Wednesday
By Mike Dempsey

Hey, it’s just 171 days until the first Saturday of May! Let the Road to the Kentucky Derby commence.

Actually, the Road to the Kentucky Debry points races started on Sept. 17 with the Iroquois (G3) which was run Churchill Downs.

We have a big one coming up on Saturday with the $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot (G3) which will have 10-4-2-1 Derby points up for grabs.

Last year’s winner was Exaggerator, who went on to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) the this spring.

A field of 10 will line up led by Gunnevera, the 5-2 morning line favorite. The colt is trained by Antonio Sano and won the Saratoga Special (G2) back in August and then in his first two turn attempt came up short in a fifth-place finish in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland.

That race was won by Classic Empire, who went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) in impressive fashion in his next outing. The colt is the current early betting favorite for the Kentucky Derby at +700. He sits atop the Road to the Kentucky Derby points standings with 30.

The second choice in early Derby betting is Juvenile runner up Not This Time, who was beaten just a neck. The colt won the Iroquois in his previous outing, picking up 10 Derby points to go along with eight earned for his Juvenile performance, his 18 points good for second in the Derby points standings.

Beach Bum has dropped down to +1500, good for third choice in early betting for the Derby. The colt broke his maiden in his debut by 5 ¼ lengths at Santa Anita on Nov. 6. The colt is trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert.

We will take a close look at the Delta Downs Jackpot on Saturday.;

Kentucky Derby Future Odds:
Classic Empire +700
Not This Time +900
Beach Bum +1500
Gormley +1800
Klimt +2000
Practical Joke +2000
Big Gray Rocket +2500
Mastery +2500
Theory +2500
Three Rules +2500


Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Md $25,000 (12:20 ET)
#2 Katie Ice 5-2
#1 Three Eighty Eight 7-2
#10 Brandi's Diva 6-1
#4 Champagne Therapy 6-1

Analysis: Katie Ice dueled for the early lead and battled on gamely until late, settling for the runner up spot while beaten a length for the top spot. The filly was making her first start off a 2 1/2 month break for the Bruce Brown barn. Gallardo sticks for another go and she does not need to move forward much off her last outing to beat this group of state breds. She is out of a Forest Camp mare that has dropped two other foals to race, one winner.

Three Eighty Eight had to steady coming out of the gate, was at the back of the pack early and finished evenly in a sixth place finish last out for a $40,000 tag. She was claimed for the third time in her four career starts, today going for the Rice barn that is 26% winners first off the claim. A clean break makes her the one to beat here. She is out of an Untuttable mare that has dropped one winner. Pedigree wise she seems suited to the surface switch here. Rice is 37% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from turf to dirt.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,4,10
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,4,10 / 1,2,4,6,10

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 6 Alw $50,000s (2:47 ET)
#3 Late Night Mark 4-1
#7 Mav 5-1
#6 Steamboat Bill 7-2
#8 Marchant 6-1

Analysis: Late Night Mark made a good late rally and drew off smartly to beat $25,000 non-winners of two last out over the turf here. The gelding has rounded into the best form of his career with the switch to Gallardo and looks well spotted her taking on $50,000 starter allowance foes. Looks capable of winning right back in this spot.

Mav pressed the early pace and battled on gamely in the stretch to keep his nose in front and beat $40,000 non-winners of two last out for Weaver. He was claimed out of the race by the Cox barn that is 24% winners first off the claim. He was beaten just a head at this condition three back at the Spa going a mile on turf. The barn does good work with recent claims and this guy does not need to move forward much off his last effort to be in the mix in this spot.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 3,6,7,8
TRI: 3,7 / 3,6,7,8 / 3,4,6,7,8

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R2: #9 Rahy’s Bandit 10-1
R3: #7 Deuces High 8-1
R4: #190 Jonquil 12-1
R5: #6 Little Jerry 8-1
R8: #6 Mister Brightside 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Dover Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Post: 6:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 82 - Purse:$4500 - HORSES/COLTS/GELDINGS CLAIMING $7,500 WITH ALLOWANCES DELAWARE OWNED OR BRED
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 5 ITS OUTTA HERE 5/2
# 2 ALEX SHREDDER 20/1
# 1 TARA MICKET 9/2

After thorough analysis by the brain trust, ITS OUTTA HERE comes out as the top pick. The 5 position is on fire here at Dover Downs. More wins than is normal. ALEX SHREDDER - Some trainers just fit better with certain horses. That seems to be the case today with Marsh. A respectable bet. TARA MICKET - This solid standardbred looks strong. Look at the 82 average TrackMaster Speed Rating. Been competing with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class edge. (Average Rating 85).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's Philadelphia

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Post: 3:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 88 - Purse:$9000 - NW $4,500 IN LAST 5 STARTS STARTERS IN A CLASS HIGHER THAN NW7500 OR A WINNER THIS CLASS IN LAST START INELIGIBLE PA PREFERENCE NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 4 JUST GOT PAID 3/1
# 5 CHINA KING 4/1
# 8 ONE AND ONLY 4/1

JUST GOT PAID looks very good to best this group of animals. Has formidable speed ratings and surely has to be considered for a wager in this one. Many analyzers will recognize the top notch speed fig in the last race. Stacks up against any horse in this pack. Drawing the 4 position at this track has lead to a much higher than average win statistic. CHINA KING - Loved this gelding's last race. Ran a big 85 speed figure. Major contender. A really strong win figure has been earned by nice horses beginning from the 5 slot. ONE AND ONLY - Exhibits the look of a profitable play, averaging a rather good 89 speed rating. Comes into this outing with respectable TrackMaster class ratings as compared to the race - take a good look.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Churchill Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Allowance - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $70000 Class Rating: 105

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A SWEEPSTAKES ON THE TURF IN 2016 ALLOWED 2 LBS. $45,000 ON THE TURF SINCE APRIL 8 ALLOWED 4 LBS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 6 BIBBY 5/1

# 5 CLAIRENATION 3/1

# 4 MELALEUCA 7/2

My pick in this competition is BIBBY. This filly is a key contender based on her earnings per start in turf sprint contests. May go off at a nice price and has some positive things going for her. The Equibase Speed Figure of 115 from her latest race looks quite good in here. CLAIRENATION - Foley has shown excellent profits (+29 return on investment ) with horses in turf sprint events. Is a contender - given the 105 speed rating from her most recent race. MELALEUCA - She has been running well recently while recording solid Equibase Speed Figures.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $10500 Class Rating: 83

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 2 FREE FLYING 8/5

# 1A LADY PANTHER 8/1

# 3 ISTRUE 7/2

FREE FLYING is the most favorable wager in this race. Is a strong contender based on figures earned recently under today's conditions. She should be given consideration given the very good speed figures. LADY PANTHER - The speed rating of 65 from her last contest looks respectable in here. ISTRUE - Well above average win clip at this distance/surface. Ought to come out very solid - I have liked the way this mare has moved speedily to the front end recently.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Turf Paradise - Race #2 - Post: 1:11pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#7 HERETOPLAY (ML=3/1)


HERETOPLAY - Really think this horse is going to be really close at the finish line.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 PREACHINATSAGOI (ML=9/5), #4 LOSTINTHISMOMENT (ML=7/2), #6 ITSHERPREROGATIVE (ML=5/1),

PREACHINATSAGOI - Hard to take this entrant at the odds after the result (eighth) in the last affair. Tough to put your cash on the win end of any thoroughbred that finishes second and third as frequently as this thoroughbred does. The speed rating last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this entrant as a likely underpriced contender. LOSTINTHISMOMENT - When looking at today's class rating, she will have to notch a better fig than last time out to compete in this dirt sprint. ITSHERPREROGATIVE - No success for this runner in a sprint event over the last 60 days tells me that this mare is in a formidable spot



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#7 HERETOPLAY to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Hawthorne - Race #3 - Post: 3:20pm - Allowance - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $20,700 Class Rating: 89

Rating:

#3 SHOWERSOFBLESSINGS (ML=3/1)
#4 SILVER KITTY (ML=9/2)


SHOWERSOFBLESSINGS - I like when a race sets up this way. This mare has the lone pace to crush this field. Taking a big drop in Equibase class figure points from her October 29th race at Hawthorne. Based on that information, I will give this thoroughbred the advantage. This equine didn't run well on the soft turf in her last race at Hawthorne. You should toss that showing. SILVER KITTY - This filly should find these state breds easier than what she faced in her last contest on October 26th. You probably want to toss that last affair at Indiana Downs on the soft turf where she finished out of the money. Should do well in this event on a fast track.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 PRAIRIE CHICK (ML=2/1), #1 BYLIA (ML=5/1), #2 IMA LITTLE KITTEN (ML=6/1),

PRAIRIE CHICK - Hasn't raced or had any works since Oct 20th. Not much value on this morning-line choice. BYLIA - I cannot play this frequent non-winner. Gets the job done now and then. IMA LITTLE KITTEN - This vulnerable equine showed very little last time out of the box finishing eighth. No reason to expect any betterment today.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#3 SHOWERSOFBLESSINGS to win at post-time odds of 7/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [3,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #5 - AQUEDUCT - 2:17 PM EASTERN POST

8.0 FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $20,000.00 CLAIMING $40,000.00 PURSE

#5 OUR CARAVAN
#2 MR PALMER / #2B WIZARDLY
#4 SINISTRA
#7 MR. CANADA

#5 OUR CARAVAN takes a class drop (-12), is the overall speed leader in this claiming field racing at the mile distance on the dirt, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of his last five starts, hitting the board in three of those "adventures," including a "POWER RUN WIN" facing better company (+4) in his 5th race back. Jockey Jose Ortiz and Trainer Linda Rice send him to the post ... they've hit the board with 54% of nearly 150 entries saddled as a team to date. #2 MR PALMER is the pace profile leader in this field, has hit the board in four of his last five outings, with three of those efforts, including a win in his 2nd race back, also qualifying as "POWER RUNS." The stablemate, #2B WIZARDLY has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four of his last five starts.