Wednesday 11/11/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Bucks (4-4) at Nuggets (3-4)

Date: November 11, 2015 9:00 PM EDT

Emmanuel Mudiay is already showing signs of being the playmaker the Denver Nuggets believed they were getting when they took a chance on him in the draft.

With counterpart Michael Carter-Williams likely sidelined for the Milwaukee Bucks, the rookie point guard will try to build on his best performance so far Wednesday night when the Nuggets look to continue their home dominance in this series.

Denver thought highly enough of Mudiay to take him seventh overall even though he opted to forgo college and play in the Chinese Basketball Association in 2014-15.

After he totaled 32 points in his first two NBA games, Mudiay averaged just 9.8 while shooting 14 of 54 (25.9 percent) over his next four. He ended that slump Monday with 18 points, six rebounds, five assists and two blocks in a 108-104 win over Portland.

Mudiay hit two big free throws in the closing seconds before blocking Damian Lillard's layup attempt to help Denver avoid its first 0-3 start at home since 2002-03.

"When I'm aggressive and not playing like a robot, good things happen for me and my teammates," he said. "If we continue to play team basketball and everybody doing our job, we're going to be fine."

Mudiay may have to keep carrying the load with Joffrey Lauvergne (back), Wilson Chandler (hip) and Jusuf Nurkic (knee) out, while backup Jameer Nelson is questionable because of a lower back ailment.

The Bucks, meanwhile, have their own injury issue with Carter-Williams, the 2013-14 Rookie of the Year who has been sidelined four games with a sprained ankle. His absence has left Tyler Ennis, Jerryd Bayless and Greivis Vasquez to share ballhandling duties.

Greg Monroe finished with 17 points and 14 rebounds in Tuesday's 99-83 loss to Boston, while Giannis Antetokounmpo contributed 16 as the Bucks' four-game winning streak ended.

"We're not as good as we think we are, so we have to keep working," coach Jason Kidd said.

Milwaukee has averaged 91.8 points and shot 42.4 percent over its last four, but Antetokounmpo has been a bright spot with 18.9 points while hitting 55.7 percent. He had 19 points and 11 rebounds in a 106-95 loss March 3 in the most recent meeting at Denver.

While with Detroit, Monroe gave Denver a tough time Feb. 6 when he had 21 points and 21 boards.

The Bucks (4-4) now open a stretch with four of five coming on the road at a venue where they haven't had much success. They've dropped 36 of 44 all-time at Denver and will try to avoid a sixth consecutive defeat that would match their longest skid there.

Milwaukee hasn't allowed 100 points in five games since giving up an average of 115.3 over its first three, but has surrendered 109.3 in its last three at Pepsi Center.

Danilo Gallinari, averaging a team-high 16.9 points, led the Nuggets (3-4) with 26 in March. He'll try to get back on track after scoring six on 2-of-10 shooting against the Trail Blazers.

After scoring eight in 23 minutes Tuesday, Milwaukee's Jabari Parker will not play in the second of back-to-back games as he continues to work his way back after tearing his ACL on Dec. 15. Shooting guard O.J. Mayo has yet to play because of a strained hamstring.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Pistons (5-2) at Kings (1-7)

Date: November 11, 2015 10:00 PM EDT

Even with DeMarcus Cousins back on the floor, it appears the Sacramento Kings will have a hard time ending their current slide.

They've rarely had any success against the Detroit Pistons in recent years.

Looking to avoid a seventh consecutive defeat, the lowly Kings also try to end their lengthy struggles against the visiting Pistons on Wednesday night.

Back from missing four straight games with a strained Achilles, Cousins had 21 points and 12 rebounds but went 5 of 20 from the field and committed four turnovers in Monday's 106-88 loss to San Antonio. Marco Belinelli scored 17 and Omri Casspi added 16 as Sacramento (1-7) shot 40.5 percent while scoring its fewest points of the young season.

With the franchise off to its poorest start since going a club-worst 1-13 in 1990-91, Cousins mentioned a players-only meeting would be scheduled for Tuesday. Sacramento dropped a season-high eight in a row from Jan. 13-30 in 2014-15.

'We've got some issues in the house we need to figure out," Cousins, who has averaged 21.8 points, 11.3 boards and 3.5 turnovers in four games, said after he recorded his 200th double-double.

'But just to make it clear, I believe in every single person in this room. We got to stay together. I feel like when those issues are fixed, winning will come.'

The Kings can start by improving on the defensive end, where they rank near the bottom of the league in points allowed (110.6 per game) and are last in defensive field-goal percentage (49.3). The Spurs shot 52.9 percent from the field and broke open a tie game with an 11-0 third-quarter run.

'I've been in positions where you have bad starts. I've had everything in my life, from six straight to nine straight,' said Sacramento coach George Karl, who has used seven different starting lineups. 'We just have to play more 48 minutes of basketball, more solid basketball and more together basketball.'

That's rarely seemed the case while the Kings have dropped 12 of 14 against Detroit (5-2). They've averaged 92.2 points and shot 40.4 percent during a five-game series slide that dates to a 105-103 home victory Nov. 7, 2012. Cousins has totaled 47 points and 24 rebounds in his last two at home against the Pistons, but last faced them there Nov. 15, 2013.

Detroit is off to a solid start but needs to bounce back after it fell to 3-1 on the road with Monday's 109-95 loss at undefeated Golden State. Reggie Jackson and rookie Stanley Johnson each scored 20 and Andre Drummond added 14 with 15 boards for his seventh double-double in as many games, but the Pistons committed 20 turnovers and allowed 35 fast-break points.

"That was the difference in the game," said Detroit coach Stan Van Gundy, whose club committed nine turnovers in Sunday's 120-103 win at Portland. "We made bad decisions passing the ball and turned it over too much ... I thought (we were) forcing too many plays, one dribble too many."

Jackson, who scored 40 on Sunday, has averaged 25.0 points in the last five games and should be fine after taking a knee to the thigh Monday.

Drummond, who has 48 of Detroit's 106 offensive rebounds, is averaging 19.4 points and a league-leading 19.6 rebounds. He's recorded a double-double in three of the last four against Sacramento.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Spurs (5-2) at Trail Blazers (4-4)

Date: November 11, 2015 10:30 PM EDT

Although LaMarcus Aldridge will go down as one of the great Portland Trail Blazers in history, his return to town could be acrimonious.

Aldridge will face his first NBA team for the first time Wednesday night when his San Antonio Spurs look to hand the Trail Blazers a third straight defeat.

The power forward spent the first nine seasons of his career with Portland. He's second on the franchise's all-time list in points (12,562), first in rebounds (5,434) and fourth in games (648).

Aldridge was generally a fan favorite with the Trail Blazers, though that may change after he signed a four-year contract worth $84.1 million with the Spurs this offseason as a free agent. The deal came one year after he vowed to local reporters he would sign an extension with Portland because he wanted to surpass Clyde Drexler as the club's all-time top scorer and play his entire career with one team.

Instead, a persuasive pitch by Spurs general manager R.C. Buford and coach Gregg Popovich convinced Dallas native Aldridge to return to his home state and help San Antonio chase its fifth title in 14 seasons.

The transition hasn't exactly been smooth, with Aldridge averaging 15.1 points after he averaged a career-high 23.4 last season for Portland.

His departure came in the same offseason the Trail Blazers (4-4) banked their future on Damian Lillard, who signed a five-year contract worth more than $120 million. Lillard is among the league's leaders with a 27.5 scoring average, though he has found it difficult shouldering the scoring load without Aldridge.

Lillard has totaled 56 points and 18 assists in consecutive defeats entering this contest.

'I am not frustrated,' Lillard said. 'As a competitor, after you lose a game, you sit there and you think about everything you could have done better as a team. You aren't happy with it. But I'm happy with where we are as a team.'

The Blazers have one of the league's top offenses, averaging 103.8 points and shooting 46.7 percent.

San Antonio (5-2) is shooting 48.8 percent after connecting at 52.9 percent in Monday's 106-88 victory at Sacramento. Kawhi Leonard, who has made 20 of his last 29 shots, scored a team-high 24 points.

The Spurs showcased their depth by outscoring the Kings 34-19 in a fourth quarter in which Tim Duncan and Tony Parker did not play. Their bench scored 24 points in that period, with former Blazers guard Patty Mills compiling seven points, six assists and four steals.

'I understand you can't live and die off your shot, so if my shot is not falling I have to do other things,' said Mills, who missed 6 of 7 shots through three quarters. 'I'm trying to become more of an all-around player.'

The Spurs' reserves average 36.4 points compared to 23.8 per game from the Blazers' backups.

San Antonio has dropped 11 of its last 13 regular-season visits to Portland, including eight of nine in which Duncan has played. The veteran has missed four of the Spurs' last eight games at the Moda Center.

Portland may have an extra big man to throw at San Antonio's frontcourt since rookie Cliff Alexander could make his debut after being out with a knee injury.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Pacers at Celtics (-2 ½, 203 ½) – 7:35 PM EST

Indiana and Boston are meeting up for the second time in a week, as the Pacers grabbed the first matchup at home, 100-98 last Wednesday as two-point underdogs. The Pacers (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) shot just 38% from the floor, but improved to 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Celtics since 2014. Frank Vogel’s club has won four of their past five games since an 0-3 start, capped off by a 97-84 victory over the Magic on Monday. Indiana is one of the hottest ATS teams in the league at the moment, covering five straight games, including a 2-1 ATS mark on the highway this season.

The Celtics (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) play without rest after routing the Bucks in Milwaukee, 99-83 as two-point road favorites. Isaiah Thomas overcame a 6-of-20 shooting performance (including 1-of-10 from long distance) to score a game-high 20 points, while starting each of the last three games after coming off the bench in the first three contests for Boston. The C’s have yet to play in a back-to-back set this season, as Brad Stevens’ team has held four of six opponents to below 98 points.

Clippers (-7, 213 ½) at Mavericks – 8:05 PM EST

Los Angeles (5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS) begins a brief two-game road trip that ends in Phoenix on Thursday night. The Clippers snapped a two-game skid by holding off the Grizzlies on Monday at home, 94-92, failing to cover as seven-point favorites. Since covering their first two contests, Doc Rivers’ squad is 0-4 ATS the last four opportunities in the favorite role. Los Angeles cruised past Dallas at Staples Center on October 29 in a 104-88 rout, catching the Mavericks on a back-to-back. Eight of the last nine meetings between these Western Conference foes have cashed the ‘over,’ including five straight ‘overs’ in Texas.

The Mavs (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) have yet to win consecutive contests this season after getting blasted at previously winless New Orleans last night, 120-105. Dallas fell behind by 18 points at halftime and never recovered, while the starting backcourt of Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews combined for eight points on 4-of-15 shooting. The Mavs are playing at home for the fourth time in five games, dropping two of their first three at the American Airlines Center. Rick Carlisle’s club owns an early 1-2 SU/ATS record in the underdog role, with the only victory coming in the opener at Phoenix.

Warriors (-7, 200 ½) at Grizzlies – 8:05 PM EST

Golden State (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS) remains the lone unbeaten team in the NBA through two weeks, as the defending champions lost two games in their first eight trips to the court last season. The Warriors snapped a three-game ATS skid by barely covering as 12 ½-point favorites in Monday’s 109-95 triumph over the Pistons. Golden State has eclipsed the 100-point mark in all eight wins, including dropping a 119-spot against Memphis on November 2 in a 50-point blowout at Oracle Arena.

It was a rough road trip for the Grizzlies (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS), who dropped four of five games with the lone victory coming against a Sacramento team that has won just once this season. Memphis fell short against the Clippers in a 94-92 defeat on Monday, as the Grizzlies have scored 96 points or less in all five losses. The Grizzlies were bounced by the Warriors in the second round of the playoffs last season, as Memphis has lost three of the past four home meetings with Golden State.

Bucks at Nuggets (-2, 198 ½) – 9:05 PM EST

Denver (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS) faces its second straight unrested foe at home, taking advantage of a tired Portland team in Monday’s 108-104 triumph. The Nuggets go for consecutive wins for the first time this season, as Mike Malone’s team has busted the 100-point mark in three of the past four games, resulting in a 3-1 mark to the ‘over.’ Rookie Emmanuel Mudiay scored a career-high 18 points against Portland, as Denver scored in triple-digits at home for the first time in three tries.

This is a difficult travel spot for Milwaukee (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS), especially coming off Tuesday’s 16-point home setback to Boston, snapping a four-game winning streak. Bucks’ point guard Michael Carter-Williams missed his fourth straight game with an ankle injury, as his status remains uncertain for Wednesday’s contest. Milwaukee hasn’t exactly played a difficult schedule so far, facing the Knicks and Nets twice each and also beating the winless 76ers at home. The Bucks have lost eight straight visits to the Pepsi Center, last winning in Denver back in 2006.

Spurs (-7 ½, 199) at Blazers – 10:35 PM EST

The LaMarcus Aldridge reunion takes place at the Moda Center as he returns to Portland for the first time since signing with San Antonio in the offseason. The Spurs (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) wrap up their two-game road swing after routing the Kings, 106-88 on Monday as 7 ½-point favorites. San Antonio’s defense has tightened up since allowing 112 points to Oklahoma City in the season opener by giving up 94 points or less in five of the last six games.

Portland (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) looks to snap a two-game skid following losses on consecutive days to Detroit and Denver. The Blazers have won and covered three straight in the underdog role, including a 115-96 blowout of Memphis last Thursday as a 4 ½-point home ‘dog. Terry Stotts’ club continues to fire away from the floor, cashing five consecutive ‘overs,’ while scoring at least 103 points during this stretch. Portland won three of four meetings with San Antonio last season, as the Blazers have taken three straight matchups at home with the Spurs since 2014.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Hot teams
-- Orlando won three of its last five games.
-- Charlotte won three of its last four games. Knicks won/covered three of four road games.
-- Indiana won four of its last five games.
-- Clippers won five of their last seven games.
-- Hawks won seven of their last eight games.
-- Warriors won first eight games (1-2AF).
-- Rockets won their last four games (0-2HF).
-- Bucks won four of their last five games.
-- Pistons won five of their first seven games.
-- Spurs won/covered five of their last six games.

Cold teams
-- Lakers lost six of first seven games (2-2AU).
-- 76ers are 0-7 this season (3-4 vs spread). Toronto lost last three games, by 5-20-2 points.
-- Celtics lost three of their last four games.
-- Dallas lost two of its last three games.
-- Pelicans won their first game in seven tries last night.
-- Memphis lost its last three games, by 19-10-2 points.
-- Nets lost their first seven games (1-6 vs spread).
-- Denver lost four of its last six games.
-- Sacramento lost its last six games (1-4 vs spread in last five).
-- Portland lost last two games, by 17-4 points.

Series records
-- Lakers lost five of last six visits to Orlando.
-- 76ers lost last eight games with Toronto (3-5 vs spread).
-- Hornets won their last three games with New York.
-- Pacers won six of last nine games with Boston.
-- Clippers won six of last eight games with Dallas; the whole free agent thing with DeAndre Jordan will be the story here. .
-- Pelicans won four of last six games with Atlanta.
-- Grizzlies lost last four games with Golden State; they lost by 50 to the Warriors in Oakland last week.
-- Rockets won nine of last ten games with Brooklyn.
-- Nuggets won nine of last ten games with Milwaukee.
-- Pistons won nine of last ten games with Sacramento.
-- Spurs lost three of last four games with Portland, which may be why they signed Aldridge away from Blazers.

Totals
-- Eight of last ten Laker-Magic games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Toronto games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five New York games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Indiana games stayed under total.
-- Eight of last nine Clipper-Dallas games went over.
-- Five of last six New Orleans-Atlanta games went over.
-- Eight of last ten Memphis-Golden State games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Brooklyn games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Milwaukee games stayed under.
-- Last four Detroit-Sacramento games stayed under.
-- Over is 7-2 in last nine San Antonio-Portland games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'What-2-Watch-4'

NBA handicapping being very situational it's always prudent to have in your handicapping tool box a list of 'WHAT-2-WATCH-4. One situation that has proven profitable is to 'Play-On' a regular season favorite after a blowout loss (15 or more points). The logic is pretty simple. We have a team who just got taken behind the woodshed and is still considered good enough to be favored. Not only are these teams typically going to be good, they're also going to be motivated following the beat-down.

Since 2012, favorites in this situation have cashed at a 53.8% clip (193-156-10 ATS). Not exactly the Midas Touch of NBA betting but a winner none the less. However, we can improve the hit rate to 59.8% (64-40-3 ATS) if we focus solely on a road favorite off a blowout loss.

Perhaps the best situation to keep an eye out for is to 'Play-On' a regular season road favorite off a 15 or more point loss playing a conference opponent off a win. It won't pop up often but given the hit rate paying attention can pay off handsomely. The situation has certainly passed the test of time, since 2010 these motivated road favorites have been consistent winners cashing 68.6% of tickets (24-11 ATS) including a sparkling 15-5 (75.0%) streak against the betting line since 2012.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds: Wednesday, November 11 2015 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

I know games this early in the NBA season don't really mean much in the grand scheme of things, but in some ways Wednesday night is the most interesting day of this season at least until Christmas. That's because the L.A. Clippers visit Dallas and San Antonio is in Portland. Both those games are on ESPN and will have live betting. I guarantee you there will be extra security on hand in Big D as Clippers center DeAndre Jordan is Public Enemy No. 1 there after agreeing to sign with the Mavs this summer and then changing his mind. I actually think the Spurs' LaMarcus Aldridge will be warmly welcomed in his first game back in Portland. He certainly was one of the best Blazers of all-time before choosing to leave in free agency this summer for the chance at a championship in San Antonio.


Knicks at Hornets (-4.5, 194)

New York was in Toronto on Tuesday. The Hornets were in Minnesota. Perhaps the greatest Knicks player ever, Hall of Famer Patrick Ewing, is an assistant with the Hornets. And of course Jeremy Lin is a backup with Charlotte, and Linsanity started a couple of years ago while he was a Knick. The Hornets won the season series 3-1 last year. Three of the four meetings were very close. Charlotte has won three straight at home vs. New York.

Key trends: The Knicks are 1-5 against the spread in their past six in the second of a back-to-back. Charlotte is 4-9 ATS in its past 13 vs. teams with a losing record. The "over/under" is 9-1-1 in the past 11 meetings.

Early lean: Hornets and over.

Lakers at Magic (TBA)

Los Angeles was in Miami on Tuesday. Kobe Bryant isn't going to play every back-to-back this season but on Monday, L.A. coach Byron Scott said he did expect Kobe to play both stops in the Sunshine State. You could see his minutes limited in this game, and obviously it might depend on what happens against the Heat. Orlando had a two-game winning streak snapped 97-84 at Indiana on Monday. Center Nikola Vucevic was inactive for the third straight game with a bone bruise on his right knee.

Key trends: The Magic are 4-0 ATS in their past four against the West. The under is 7-1 in the past eight meetings in Orlando.

Early lean: Magic will win this one.

Raptors at 76ers (TBA)

Toronto hosted New York on Tuesday and DeMarre Carroll was game-time decision. Philly looks for its first win here as it lost its seventh straight on Monday, 111-88 at home vs. Chicago. Jahlil Okafor was a bright spot with 21 points and 15 rebounds, his first double-double. Nerlens Noel sat with a sore wrist, but it's not serious. He's questionable here. The Sixers have lost 17 straight games dating to March 27, 2015. That matches the fourth-longest mark in franchise history. I'm looking ahead to Philly's schedule and I don't see a great chance at a win until Dec. 1 vs. the Lakers.

Key trends: The favorite is 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings. The over is 10-1 in the Sixers' past 11 vs. the East.

Early lean: Raptors SU whether Carroll plays or not.

Pacers at Celtics (-6, 203)

Boston was in Milwaukee on Tuesday and guard Marcus Smart was doubtful to return from his injury, so that means he's probably not playing here. Indiana is off a 13-point home win over Orlando on Monday. Paul George appears back to his pre-broken leg self as he had 27 points, his fourth straight with at least 20. Forward C.J. Miles started against the Magic in his first game back after missing three straight with a sore right ankle. Boston was 3-1 vs. Indiana last year and won both at TD Garden.

Key trends: The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings. The under is 9-3 in the past 12.

Early lean: Celtics and under.

Pelicans at Hawks (-9.5, 213)

New Orleans hosted Dallas on Tuesday looking for its first win of the season. Atlanta had one of the more perplexing losses of any team this season on Monday, 117-107 at home to Minnesota to end a seven-game winning streak. The Wolves were up 34 at one point yet blew that before then pulling away at the end again. The Timberwolves' 42 points in the second quarter and the Hawks' 42 in the third tied for the second-highest of any quarter in the NBA this season. Atlanta won in New Orleans 121-115 last Friday as Kyle Korver was 8-for-8 from the field for 22 points. Anthony Davis tied a career high with 43 points. Because this is the second of a back-to-back for the Pelicans, don't expect to see point guard Jrue Holiday.

Key trends: Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in its past eight at home. The over is 8-3 in New Orleans' past 11 vs. the East.

Early lean: Hawks and over.

Clippers at Mavericks (+5.5, 212.5)

Dallas was in New Orleans on Tuesday. Los Angeles ended a two-game skid with a 94-92 home win over Memphis on Monday. J.J. Redick scored six straight points in the final 55 seconds to complete the rally. Clippers star point guard Chris. Paul returned after missing one game with a sore right groin. He had to leave briefly against the Grizz after being poked in the eye but did return. The Clippers hosted Dallas on Oct. 29 and won 104-88 in a game that was quite intense. Jordan had six points, 15 rebounds and four blocked shots. Dallas owner Mark Cuban disparaged the Clippers in pregame remarks, saying that "you can change the owner, you can change the players, but the Clippers are still the franchise that they've been for the last 30 years." There were four technical fouls in the game and several other hard fouls. I expect more of the same here.

Key trends: The Clippers are 7-1 ATS in their past eight on Wednesday. The over is 8-1 in the past nine meetings.

Early lean: Clippers and over.

Nets at Rockets (TBA)

Brooklyn looks for its first win of the season here. It's off a 94-86 win in Milwaukee on Saturday. The Nets' only good player, center Brook Lopez, left with a sore right foot -- and he has had major foot problems in his career. But X-rays were negative and he expects to play here (why TBA). Houston has won four straight after a 0-3 start. The Rockets are off a 109-105 win at the Clippers on Saturday behind 46 points from James Harden (his second straight 40-point game), who was named the Western Conference Player of the Week on Monday.

Key trends: Houston is 10-4 ATS in its past 14 at home vs. teams with a losing road record. The over is 8-3 in the Rockets' past 11 following a win.

Early lean: Rockets will roll.

Warriors at Grizzlies (+5.5, 200)

Golden State remained unbeaten with a 109-95 home win over Detroit on Monday. Steph Curry was held to a season-low 22 points. Warriors State center Andrew Bogut played for the first time since suffering a concussion in the team's season opener. Golden State's 8-0 start is the second-best in franchise history. The Philadelphia Warriors won their first nine games in 1960-61. Memphis enters on a three-game losing streak, but I think plays this game like it's the postseason after being embarrassed 119-69 in Oakland on Nov. 2, the worst loss in franchise history. The Grizzlies also acquired guard Mario Chalmers from Miami on Tuesday, but it's not clear if he will play in this game.

Key trends: The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings. The under is 6-1 in the past seven.

Early lean: Grizzlies and under.

Bucks at Nuggets (-2, 201)

Milwaukee hosted Boston on Tuesday, so Jabari Parker may not play here in the second of a back-to-back. Denver ended a two-game slide with a 108-104 home win over Portland on Monday. Rookie Emmanuel Mudiay was very good with 18 points, six rebounds, five assists and two blocks. He looks like a player. The Nuggets played that one without guard Jameer Nelson (lower back), forward Wilson Chandler (hip) and centers Joffrey Lauvergne (back) and Jusuf Nurkic (knee). The Bucks and Nuggets split last year. Denver has won five straight at home in series.

Key trends: Denver is 7-3 ATS in its past 10. The under is 4-1 in Milwaukee's past five on the road.

Early lean: Nuggets and under.

Pistons at Kings (-3, 207.5)

Absolutely fantastic individual matchup here between the two most dominant centers in the NBA in Detroit's Andre Drummond and Sacramento's DeMarcus Cousins. Drummond is averaging 19.4 points and 19.6 rebounds per game. He had 14 points and 15 rebounds in Monday's 109-95 loss at Golden State. Sacramento stinks as usual and enters on a six-game slide. It lost 106-88 on Monday at San Antonio. Cousins had 21 points in 12 rebounds after missing the previous four injured. He is averaging 21.8 points and 11.3 rebounds on the year. Darren Collison missed the Spurs game and is questionable here with a strained hamstring.

Key trends: The Pistons are 5-1 ATS in their past six vs. the West. The over is 11-2 in the Kings' past 13 vs. the East.

Early lean: Kings and over.

Spurs at Blazers (+6.5, 201)

Aldridge probably goes down, at least for now, as the second-best Blazer ever behind Hall of Famer Clyde Drexler, who is No. 1 on the team's all-time scoring list with Aldridge at No. 2. Aldridge is the franchise leader in rebounds. He thought about staying, but the chance to win a ring and return to his native Texas was too much. San Antonio brings a three-game winning streak into this one. The Blazers have dropped two straight. Portland won three of four against the Spurs last year and has won 11 of its past 13 at home in the series.

Key trends: The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The over is 4-0 in the past four.

Early lean: Spurs and over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Wednesday's game

Western Michigan won its last four games with Bowling Green, with all four wins by 12+ points; favorites are 5-3 vs spread in last eight games in series. Falcons lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 24-9-29 points. BG won last six games, scoring 57.8 ppg in last four. Western Michigan won its last five games, last four by 22+. MAC home dogs are 6-9 vs spread this season. Three of last four Falcon games went over.

Buffalo won its last three games, last two by total of six points; they've lost two of last three home games. Bulls lost last three tilts vs Northern Illinois 45-14/31-30/45-3, but teams didn't play last two years, as Bulls became a better team. Huskies won last four games, scoring 46.3 ppg- they upset Toledo on road last week. MAC home dogs are 6-9 vs spread this season. Three of last four games for both sides went over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Wednesday
By Mike Dempsey

The graded stakes schedule around the U.S. is winding down, but we have a rare mid-week graded stake on tap at the Big A with a field of seven going in the $150,000 Discovery Handicap (G3).

2-1 morning line favorite is Ocean Knight, who showed a ton of promise back in January winning the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs in just his second career start.

The Kiran McLaughlin trainee was sent off at 8-5 in his next start in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) but was bumped coming out of the gate and faded to finish a well-beaten seventh after stalking the early pace.

There was no apparent excuse for the poor showing and McLaughlin sent him to the bench and he returned this summer at Saratoga nearly six months later and ran a game second against second level optional claimers.

He then won at that level last out by a head over the talented stakes winner Noble Moon at Belmont Park going a mile. He looks back on track here and is my top pick in today’s race.

Trainer Todd Pletcher sends out Madefromlucky, who is the second choice at 5-2. The colt looked super winning the Peter Pan (G2) in May and the West Virginia Derby (G2) in August, but his last was a clunker.

Sent off at 6-1 in the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) at Parx Racing the colt was never a threat after a wide trip, weakening to finish seventh while beaten 13 ¾ lengths for the top spot.

The colt ended up my second choice and we may be looking at a chalky exacta, but he is much better than he showed last out in Philly and it seems likely he will bounce back with a better effort.

We had some rain yesterday but the skies will clear and I am hoping we are on the turf today.


Here is today’s opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Clm $25,000N2L (12:20 ET)
7 Bird Prince 2-1
2 Jai Alai 5-2
3 Because I'm Happy 3-1
1 Salem Loop/1a Sunny Puzzle 8-1

Analysis: Bird Prince dueled for the early lead while down along a deep inside and faded to finish sixth last out against $50,000 starter allowance foes going a mile over a wet track. He was right in the mix two and three back going long with a third and a second and looks quick enough to handle the cut back to a sprint here. The barn is 21% winners, moving runners from route to sprint.

Jai Alai stalked the early pace and weakened to finish fourth last out against $50,000 starter allowance foes. He had some traffic troubles two back at the Spa, checking in fifth and placed fourth via DQ. He draws the rail here and owns a solid pace profile throughout. He should get a good tracking trip in this spot as he goes for a tag for the first time since breaking his maiden for $40,000 in his second career start.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 2,7 / 1,2,3,7
TRI: 2,7 / 1,2,3,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 The Discovery Handicap (3:50 ET)
2 Ocean Knight 2-1
1 Madefromlucky 5-2
7 Smart Transition 5-1
6 Tommy Macho 4-1

Analysis: Ocean Knight tracked the early pace, came with a good five wide move and held on in deep stretch to beat Alw-2 optional claimers last out. The runner up noble Moon is a Grade 2 winner and fourth place finisher Just Call Kenny came back to beat Alw-32 foes in his next outing on Oct. 31 at Belmont Park. This guy looks headed in the right direction form wise and is already a Grade 3 winner, taking the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs in his second career start. There is not much pace in here and he should be right in the mix early.

Madefromlucky did not fire last out in the Pennsylvania Derby (G2), fading to finish a well-beaten seventh. He won the West Virginia Derby (G2) two back at Mountaineer Park with a career top speed fig and also won the Peter Pan (G2) four back, both at today's distance. He is better than he showed last out.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 2-1 or better
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,6,7
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,6,7 / 1l,2,5,6,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R1: #1 Salem Loop / 1a Sunny Puzzle 8-1
R3: #5 Bileups and Bounds 8-1
R7: #8 Sir Macho 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Dayton Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 6 - Post: 8:15 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 77 - Purse:$4000 - FILLIES & MARES CLAIMING $5000 W/ALLOWANCES DAYTON RACEWAY J.SUTTON LISTED 2-8 K.KAUFFMAN LISTED 5-6-7


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 PERFECTLY ROYAL 9/2


# 5 KEENE ANGELIC 5/2


# 3 MISS HKB 7/2


Look no further than PERFECTLY ROYAL as the bet here. Feel the need for speed, this entrant has been turning in some stellar speed figures averaging around 76. With a 79 average class number, this fine animal has one of the best class advantages in the grouping. Have to support a nice horse coming out of the Dayton Raceway 1 hole. The win stat is very good, way above normal. KEENE ANGELIC - Could beat this group, just look at the speed rating - 77 - from her most recent contest. Don't forget a horse with these connections. Driver/trainer statistics are looking competitive. MISS HKB - Competing solidly, recorded a substantial TrackMaster SR in her last race (70).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at The Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 11 - Post: 4:15 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 88 - Purse:$5900 - CD 4YO & UP NW $2800 LAST 4 STARTS HORSES RACING FOR A PURSE GREATER THAN $10,501 LAST START NE - STAKES, CLOSERS & 10 HORSE BONUS MONEY EXCLUDED MORNING LINE: 5-6-7-3 M.WILDER - #1,3 OR 8 D.PALONE - #2 OR 6


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 HICKORY BIG RED 3/1


# 2 LOGAMOTION 6/1


# 1 GOGGLES PAISANO 8/1


Hard not to get behind HICKORY BIG RED as the top contender in this event. A really strong class horse shouldn't be be missed. With an average class stat of 90 all signs point here for the winner. If effort in the last competition is representative, this interesting entrant will have a very really good shot today. High last race TrackMaster Speed Rating. You have to favor a horse that wins regularly, very attractive win stat. LOGAMOTION - This standardbred has been making trips to the winner's circle on a regular basis, look for him to make another showing soon. Positively think these two have something special. Marashian sending the horse out means a competitive chance to get the top prize. GOGGLES PAISANO - This affair could be controlled by this gelding. One look at the avgerage speed rating will verify that. A really strong class horse should not be be passed over. With an average class number of 90 all signs look very good for this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $5750 Class Rating: 64

FOR NATIVE THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES SINCE NOVEMBER 11, 2014 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 27 ALLOWED 1 LBS. ARACE SINCE OCTOBER 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 11 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 4 CROOTKHOFF 10/1


# 2 CARLITOS OYOLA 3/1


# 7 EL GRAN CATURO 8/5


I've got to go with CROOTKHOFF and is a respectable value-based bet given the 10/1 line. Is a definite contender - given the 64 speed rating from his most recent race. CARLITOS OYOLA - Is worth serious consideration and may be a bet - strong Equibase Speed Figures (59 average) at today's distance and surface lately. Over time, this conditioner has a very strong ROI at this distance/surface. EL GRAN CATURO - Has been racing solidly and has among the most respectable speed in the race for today's distance. Very good choice to take this race going in a dirt sprint.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hawthorne

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Allowance - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $21000 Class Rating: 87

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $9,800 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 11 ALLOWED 3 LBS. (PREFERENCE BY


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 WAVE OF THE WAND 5/1


# 5 REDSHIRT 6/1


# 3 PERFECT EXTENSION 6/1


I give my vote to WAVE OF THE WAND here. She has been running quite well recently while recording strong Equibase Speed Figures. Don't overlook this mare in your bets - very dangerous with Hennessy aboard. Has been racing in the most competitive company of the field lately. REDSHIRT - Well above average win clip at this distance/surface. PERFECT EXTENSION - Ackerman has this filly travelling well and is a formidable selection based on the very good Equibase speed figs put up in route races as of late.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Gulfstream Park West - Race #9 - Post: 4:35pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 86

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 OXIDIENNE (ML=9/2)
#3 MORGAN FALLS (ML=4/1)
#2 WOV (ML=8/1)
#8 SICCAR (ML=7/2)


OXIDIENNE - Speed figs on the turf point to this racer as a legit contender. Has the best in the field for this dist/surf. Don't often see a beneficial ROI like +93. This jockey/trainer tandem has done well together over the last twelve months. Lets try to beat the low-odds horses with this filly. Just missed last out, but ran a respectable race. This horse has increased her speed ratings from a fig of 49 to 70 to 81 in a row. MORGAN FALLS - Panici and Ritvo perform well when they partner up. Hard to beat a win percentage of 33. This thoroughbred could be tough in today's race, especially since Panici rode last time around the track and now should be acquainted with this one. Filly took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. I like to bet on this angle, a horse coming back off a sharp effort within the last month. WOV - This filly should give a good showing of herself in today's race. SICCAR - Have to make this filly a strong challenger; she comes off a sharp effort on Oct 23rd. That 87 fig this filly registered in her last affair tells me she's a major player today. The improved speed ratings over the last three races is strong. Garcia drops her in this race in shape and ready to win.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 TRUMPET'S EMINENCE (ML=5/1), #9 SCINDIA (ML=6/1), #10 GRACIOUS HUMOR (ML=8/1),

TRUMPET'S EMINENCE - Pace makes the race. Hard for this early speedster to be able to manage the early pressure from the rest of this field. SCINDIA - Pace makes the race. Tough for this speedball to be able to deal with the suicidal fractions from the rest of this field. Really had to give me a whole lot more last time out. Never made much of an impact. Will not be easy for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed figure. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class figure, so put her on the likely underlays list. GRACIOUS HUMOR - Didn't make up ground at all on October 7th. Hard to bet on this time at the expected odds. Going to have a difficult go of it with all the other front-runners in this race. Don't believe this questionable contender will make an impact in today's event. That last speed figure was quite unimpressive when compared with today's class figure.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #4 OXIDIENNE on the win end if we get at least 5/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
[3,4] with [2,3,4,8] with [2,3,4,8] with [2,3,4,8,9,10] with [2,3,4,8,9,10] Total Cost: $72

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Penn National - Race #3 - Post: 6:54pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $28,500 Class Rating: 81

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 FIFTYSHADESOFFUN (ML=5/1)
#7 ADIRA (ML=3/1)


FIFTYSHADESOFFUN - This filly is in nice physical condition, having run a good race on October 16th, finishing first. Lake must have known this filly would run well at this track. Won her last race here on October 16th and now goes for back-to-back wins. Was disqualified in last. Can make amends today. The last figure of 81 is the top last race rating in the field. ADIRA - This speed freak should benefit from this contest's shorter trip. Motion has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to watch out for the longer priced half.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 WASATCH (ML=8/5), #2 EMPERESSE (ML=4/1), #5 GALANTHUS (ML=8/1),

WASATCH - Can't play this chalk horse off the long layoff. Won't be easy for this racer to beat this field off of that last speed figure. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class rating, so put her on the possibly overvalued equines list. EMPERESSE - Recorded a most unsatisfactory speed rating last out in a Maiden Special race on Oct 2nd. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that rating. GALANTHUS - I'd like to see more conducive recent outings with morning line odds of 8/1. Won't be easy for this horse to beat this group off of that last fig. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class figure, so put her on the likely underpriced equines list.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #1 FIFTYSHADESOFFUN to win if we can get at least 9/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #8 -AQUEDUCT - 3:43 PM EASTERN POST


The Discovery Handicap

9.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE III THREE YEAR OLDS STAKES $150,000.00 PURSE

#2 OCEAN KNIGHT
#1 MADEFROMLUCKY
#6 TOMMY MACHO
#7 SMART TRANSITION

Well folks ... The Discovery Handicap honors Alfred G. Vanderbilt's great weight carrier of the 1930s, Discovery, who won under as many as 139 pounds. Among his stakes victories were the Arlington, Brooklyn, and Whitney handicaps. He was named champion handicap horse for 1936. Here in the 2nd renewal of this graded stakes test, #2 OCEAN KNIGHT has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four of his last five outings, and this recent streak of racing consistency also includes a trio of "POWER RUN WINS!" #1 MADEFROMLUCKY qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," and has scored with "POWER RUN WINS" in both his 2nd and 4th races back, which is indicative of a "Bounce Pattern," and the BoUnCe will be UP/POSITIVE this afternoon if this pattern continues.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northfield: Wednesday 11/11 Analysis + Pick Four ticket
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four Play:

1,2,4,7,9 / 1,6 / 2 / 2,4 = $20



Best Bet: STRONG PLAYIN KING (10th)

Spot Play: GRANDKIDS ATTACK (4th)

Race 1

(5) ROMPAWAY ELVIS will win while down in class if he stays trotting. (3) CADILLAC KID finds a weak and inconsistent field to do some damage. (2) TOMMYS COVER GIRL has not been competitive in quite some time but should be in line for a ground saving trip up close; use underneath.

Race 2

(4) JESMACH CHESTER will look to make it three straight against similar competition. (5) TT‘SSHSUTTERBUG owns the best resume on the year and should offer value. (7) KAPTAIN JON BOY is a lightly raced trotter that had some decent late foot last out but needs to find a way into the race.

Race 3

(6) WINDESTRUCTABLE stayed flat in the qualifier and fits in nicely with this bunch . (8) SIR KENSINGTON needs some racing luck from a tough post but can beat this field. (7) PACIFIC WAVE K doesn’t look the best on paper but can trot a decent mile with a good setup.

Race 4

(8) GRANDKIDS ATTACK takes a big drop in competition. (5) BOXCAR just doesn’t win very often; use underneath. (4) MR BAILEY has just been racing evenly; command a price.

Race 5

(4) AMERICAN ROSIE was uncontrollable last week sitting in the pocket. If the filly has some of the kinks worked out she’s dangerous. (1) UNCLE DONNIE raced well last start earning a nice victory; threat. (6) BOOTYSHAKERBAKER will need to show more against tougher tonight.

Race 6

(3) E R SISTER has always been an underachiever. If the mare races like she’s capable, she can get the job done. (4) SPYMISTRESS needs a fast pace to close into to hit the ticket. (5) JUSTROLLWITHIT should offer a big price in a weak field.

Race 7

(2) TE’S CONMYSOCKSOFF was an easy winner at this level last time out. (7) THREESOCKSGO is fast enough to compete given a good setup. (4) MARK SAID SO owns multiple wins at this level on the year; threat.

Race 8

(4) NOMINAL HANOVER is a well bred mare that made a miscue last out, but is one of few in the race that’s shown a decent burst of speed. (1) NOT AGAIN WOMAN gets the best post and probably needed her start last week. (7) FELICIA HALL has been competitive against similar on the year.

Race 9

(1) MUSICAL ROMANNCE will look to make it three straight wins against a suspect bunch. (6) BLACK DENIM LACE has a good history of hitting the board. (2) MR MIRACLE DUNN could get a piece just by staying trotting.

Race 10

Lightly raced (2) STRONG PLAYIN KING will be tough to beat with any improvement. (3) PRINCETON has little to show for some decent efforts; threat. (7) DANCING HEART is a well bred filly that has been knocking on the door; needs more.

Race 11

(2) CALLIT AS U SEEIT raced well last out to a really nice trotter. (4) MS JETTA owns some ability when she minds her manners. (6) PONDA BLITZ has been unable to get the job done late; command a price.

Race 12

(6) SACHERTORTE owns only one win on the year but drops in class. (2) LIMA SHOWOFF has just been racing evenly but faces weaker this time. (7) MAC’S DEVIL could threaten with a smooth trip after being parked the mile last out.

Race 13

(9) DIAMONDS REVENGE had no shot last week from a tough post. The pacer should be much closer turning for home. (4) SHAM‘S BIG GUY is very inconsistent from week to week, but a good effort puts him in the mix. (1) COWBOY ROUNDUP is 0 for the year; use underneath.

Race 14

(7) CAMMILICIOUS has been super in two straight and will be tough to beat with a smooth trip. (3) SLIDN TO YA RONNIE just needs to ration out his speed for a chance to break his maiden. (4) FOX VALLEY ADENA should be closer turning for home against much weaker.

Race 15

(6) J F COOKIN makes his third start back off a layoff and should be primed for a better effort. (2) MUNCIE will be making his fourth start in 10 days but is down at the bottom level. (4) NATHAN flashed a nice burst of speed a few back; threat.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Wednesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (5th) Head Shrinker, 4-1
(9th) Laquesta, 7-2

Charles Town (1st) Flaming Tempest, 9-2
(5th) Show You Off, 4-1

Churchill Downs (2nd) Tapit Quick, 6-1
(8th) Choir Director, 3-1


Delta Downs (1st) Poppa's Popcorn, 4-1
(6th) My Man Parker, 7-2


Finger Lakes (4th) Here We Go Joe, 3-1
(5th) Robert Noble, 7-2


Gulfstream Park West (2nd) Arella Princess, 4-1
(8th) Weekend Hideaway, 4-1


Hawthorne (4th) Buttercup, 3-1
(8th) Indanameofdafather, 8-1


Laurel Park (4th) Marengo Road, 7-2
(5th) Silver Legend, 5-1


Mahoning Valley (1st) Tracey Said So, 6-1
(8th) Gdansk, 9-2


Penn National (2nd) Currently Sharp, 3-1
(4th) Rastaban, 6-1


Remington Park (2nd) Shadynstella, 5-1
(3rd) Bart G, 7-2


Turf Paradise (7th) Gentle as a Breeze, 3-1
(8th) Kays Lady, 8-1


Woodbine (2nd) Fireball Merlin, 7-2
(6th) Bobcaygeon, 9-2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wednesday's six-pack

-- Thanks to all the men and women who defend our country, keep us safe; today is Veterans' Day and it is an important day to remember.

-- Colts' QB Andrew Luck is out 2-6 weeks with a lacerated kidney and abdominal tears. Apparently he threw seven passes after the injury Sunday.

-- If you're planning ahead, April 30 is Noah Syndergaard Garden Gnome night at Citi Field in NYC- make your plans accordingly.

-- I'm curious if all these Tues/Wed MAC football games help their recruiting?

-- Twins signed Korean 1B Byung-Ho Park who apparently is a very good hitter.

-- You can buy a lottery ticket in New York, but now you can't play daily fantasy sports- this is the kind of double standard that explains why a lot of people despise the government-- if they're not getting a piece of the income, it becomes illegal.

 

[prosperUS]

I like this Alan Matthews post. Thanks CPAW. I'm back in the wagers and will try to contribute anything new that I can find to this forum. $$