Dr Bob
Best Bets released so far
(328) ****Miami-Florida (-14) 4-Stars at -14 or less, 3-Stars up to -17, 2-Stars up to -20
(352) ***Louisiana Tech (-5 ½) 3-Stars at -6 ½ or less, 2-Stars at -7
(357) **Tennessee (+8) 2-Stars at +7 or more, 1-Star down to +6 (386) **UCLA (-5) 2-Stars at -7 or less
****MIAMI-FLORIDA (-14) 49 North Carolina 22
Sat Nov-01-2014 at 09:30 AM Pacific Rotation: 328 Over/Under 0.0
North Carolina’s 28-27 win at Virginia last week gave the Tarheels back-to-back wins and 3 straight spread wins, which served to keep the opening line on this game down. The line opened at 12 points and went to 14 before I could release it but there is still a lot of value on Miami even with the line now higher. The Hurricanes have won for me twice in a row and are improving as freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya gets more seasoning. Kaaya has actually posted really good numbers (8.0 yards per pass play against a schedule of teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback) and his efficiency has improved since the coaching staff opened up the playbook after the first two weeks. Miami obviously has a great rushing attack, as a lot of you may have witnessed watching Duke Johnson run all over Virginia Tech last Thursday night. Not only does Johnson average 7.5 yards per rushing but his two backups combine to average 6.7 ypr and that group will have no trouble running all over a North Carolina defense that is a bit worse than average defending the run and allowed an average of 371 rushing yards at 8.0 yards per rushing play to the two good running teams that they’ve faced (362 yards at 8.2 yprp to ECU and 380 yards at 7.8 yprp to Georgia Tech). UNC’s worst defensive trait is their pass defense, which has allowed 7.8 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.8 yppp to an average team, so Kaaya should have good success throwing when he needs to throw. Miami should tally around 600 total yards and 50 points in this game against a Tarheels’ defense that’s allowed an average of 53 points in 4 games against good offensive teams East Carolina, Clemson (they were good with QB Watson), Notre Dame, and Georgia Tech.
North Carolina does have a good offense that is surely capable of scoring a good number of points, but overall the Tarheels have been just 0.4 yards per play better than average offensively this season (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and that unit is 0.5 yppl better than average with quarterback Marquise Williams in the game (he’s no longer sharing time with Mitch Trubisky). Miami’s defense, however, is better than people think, as the Hurricanes have yielded just 4.9 yppl in 7 games against FBS teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defensive team. Miami has given up 24 points per game but that average is misleading given that they allowed 3 fumble return touchdowns and a kickoff return for a TD. The defense has only allowed 20 points in 7 FBS games against a schedule of opposing offenses that collectively rates the just 0.1 yppl worse than North Carolina’s offensive rating. North Carolina is projected to gain 403 yards because the Tarheels tend to run a lot of plays but they are expected to average only 4.9 yppl and score just 23 points.
The math model projects more than a 200 yard advantage for Miami from the line of scrimmage and the math model gives the Hurricanes a 61% chance of covering based solely on the math. In addition to that there are multiple significant situations that favor Miami, as North Carolina’s recent surge sets up the Tarheels in a very negative 2-40 ATS subset of a 37-104-3 ATS road dog letdown situation. Miami, meanwhile, applies to a 74-18-2 ATS home favorite momentum situation. This game is not only a high level math play but also gets my highest technical analysis rating. Since I started using my math model in 2004 the games in which my highest technical analysis rating was also a math play have been 69% winners. If this game is a 69% play at -14 then it is still a 53.9% play at -21, so there is still value even after the line move. I’ll take Miami-Florida in a 4-Star Best Bet at -14 or less, for 3-Stars at -17 or less, for 2-Stars up to -20 and for 1-Star up to -21 points.
***LOUISIANA TECH (-5 ½) 43 Western Kentucky 29
Sat Nov-01-2014 at 12:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 352 Over/Under 0.0
Western Kentucky is a good offensive team that is averaging 45.6 points and 557 yards per game at 6.9 yards per play (against teams that would combine to allow 37.1 points and 6.0 yppl to an average team), but he Hilltoppers are extremely challenged defensively. Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed an average of 41.1 points and 548 yards per game at 6.9 yppl to teams that would combine to average 28.0 points and 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. Overall, the Hilltoppers are 4.6 points and 0.5 yards per play worse than an average FBS team, which is not likely going to be good enough to beat a better than average Louisiana Tech team that is at home and in a very good situation. The Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS this season with just one inexplicable performance (a 27-30 loss as a 23 point home favorite to FCS teams Northwestern State) and they’ve been better than average overall even with that one dismal performance included.
Louisiana Tech’s offense is a bit below average (5.8 yards per play against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team), but the Bulldogs have averaged 43.3 points and 7.2 yppl in 3 games against really bad defensive teams (UL Lafayette, NW State, and UTEP) and they’re projected to score 43 points on 7.2 yppl in this game against a Western Kentucky defense that is actually 0.2 yppl worse than the composite ranking of those 3 bad defensive teams. Western Kentucky has allowed 41 points per game against teams that would rate a bit worse offensively than Louisiana Tech’s offensive rating adjusted for this game being at home for the Bulldogs. With all of that being the case, projecting more than 40 points for Louisiana Tech is certainly reasonable.
The strength of Louisiana Tech is a defense that has yielded just 5.0 yards per play and 25.9 points per game to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.4 and 28.0 points against an average defensive team. The Bulldogs allowed 48 points at Oklahoma and 45 points at Auburn but they only allowed a combined 6.4 yards per play in those games, which is much better than the 7.2 yppl that those teams would average at home against an average defensive team. Western Kentucky’s compensated offensive numbers also aren’t nearly as good as Oklahoma and Auburn and this is the first time all season that the Hilltoppers will face an average or better defense. Western Kentucky’s offense is better than Louisiana Tech’s defense but the 433 yards at 5.8 yppl that is projected for the Hilltoppers won’t likely be enough to keep this game within a touchdown. My math model gives Louisiana Tech a 55.6% chance of covering based solely on the line value and that percentage is enhanced by a 19-61-2 ATS road dog situation that applies to Western Kentucky that is based on their bad defense. Louisiana Tech, meanwhile, applies to an 85-43-1 ATS home momentum situation that is a combination of their win streak and facing a road team that allows 35 points or more per game. This game is a good combination of significant line value and a good situation and such games have been very profitable over the years and I’ll take Louisiana Tech in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 ½ points or less and for 2-Stars at -7.
**Tennessee (+8) 29 SOUTH CAROLINA 28
Sat Nov-01-2014 at 04:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 357 Over/Under 0.0
South Carolina gave it everything they had at Auburn last week and I just don’t see the disappointed Gamecocks (now 4-4 on the season) giving that sort of effort again this week. Even if they did I still think they’ll have a tough time beating a defensively stout Tennessee team that may get an offensive boost in the form of sophomore Joshua Dobbs, who came off the bench last week and sparked the offense against Alabama. It’s uncertain if Dobbs or starter Justin Worley will get the start, and both may play, but I like Tennessee in this game regardless – although I’d prefer Dobbs to start. Dobbs played in the final 4 games for the Volunteers last season, starting the last 4, and was seen as a disappointment. However, he also had the misfortune of facing a slate of very good opposing pass defenses. Dobbs only averaged 4.9 yards per pass play but he faced teams that would combine to allow just 5.5 yppp to an average quarterback, and Dobbs rates at just 0.3 yppp worse than average for his career when you include his 183 yards on 33 pass plays (5.5 yppp) last week against Alabama’s very good defense (the Tide would allow 4.9 yppp on the road to an average QB). Worley has been 0.4 yppp worse than average this season, which is a bit worse, and Dobbs adds a running element to the position, as he has tallied 343 yards on 49 runs, including 84 last week against the Tide. Regardless of the quarterback, Tennessee’s offense will be a bit better than their season rating of 0.4 yards per play worse than average, which includes the horrible stats of backup quarterback Nathan Peterman, who started last week and now has produced a total of 27 yards on 21 pass plays this season. Tennessee has faced the toughest slate of opposing defenses in the nation and the Vols are actually only 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively when you exclude Peterman’s atrocious numbers. That attack will finally face a bad defensive team and the math model projects 429 yards at 5.9 yppl for Tennessee against a South Carolina defense that continues to struggle. The Gamecocks are now 0.6 yards per play worse than average for the season (6.8 yppl allowed to FBS teams that would average 6.2 yppl against an average defense) and have allowed 6.8 yppl or more in all but one of their seven FBS games this season. That projection for Tennessee’s offense would go up a bit if Dobbs is named the starter, as it does not include his running contribution.
South Carolina’s offense continues to valiantly try to make up for their bad defense and the Gamecocks’ attack is 0.9 yards per play better than average (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) after a very good effort last week (6.3 yppl against a previously very good Auburn defense). As good as South Carolina’s offense has been, the Tennessee defense is actually better. The Vols have yielded just 22.9 points and 346 yards per game at 5.0 yards per play despite facing a schedule of teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average stop unit. That defense allowed 34 points (3 times) or 35 points in all 4 games against good offensive teams they’ve faced (Oklahoma, Georgia, Ole’ Miss, and Alabama) but those 4 teams combine to rate at 0.2 yppl better than South Carolina’s offensive raging (adjusted for this game being at home), so it’s unlikely that the Gamecocks will score 34 points or more and my math model projects a modest 399 yards at 5.6 yppl and 28 points for South Carolina in this game.
Overall I rate Tennessee as a better team and I’m happy to take the points against a what I think will be a deflated South Carolina team that gave it their all last week in their heartbreaking 35-42 loss to Auburn. In fact, teams that lost by a possession or less (i.e. 8 points or fewer) as a double-digit dog are just 98-151-4 ATS as a conference favorite the next week, which is the letdown scenario that the Gamecocks find themselves in today. I’ll take Tennessee in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 1-Star down to +6 points.
**UCLA (-5) 42 Arizona 28
Sat Nov-01-2014 at 07:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 386 Over/Under 0.0
UCLA has certainly under-performed so far this season (1-7 ATS) but while the Bruins may not be as good this season as they were expected to be they are still better than an overrated Arizona team that played well last week but is still just 0.4 yards per play and 7.4 points better than average overall this season from the line of scrimmage. The best thing about Arizona is an offense that has averaged 6.3 yards per play while facing teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average attack, and that unit does have a 0.2 yppl advantage over a UCLA defense that’s only 0.4 yppl better than average (allowed 5.5 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.9 yppl) but UCLA’s offensive advantage is much more significant. The Bruins have averaged 6.4 yards per play against teams that would allow just 5.3 yppl to an average attack and I still rate that unit at 0.9 yppl better than average even when using a median rating, which I did in this case to dampen that affect of the 10.6 yards per play they averaged against Arizona State. That offense should thrive in this game against a mediocre Arizona defense that’s surrendered 5.9 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team.
Overall UCLA is 1.0 yppl better but Arizona is expected to run more plays, as is usually the case when the Wildcats. Even with that being the case UCLA is projected to have a 564 yards to 461 yards advantage in this game and the Bruins have a 1.5 points edge in special teams. Turnovers are expected to be even, as neither quarterback is turnover prone (each has thrown just 4 interceptions) while both defenses are below average in interception rate. Overall, the math clearly favors the Bruins to cover the number and I’ll take UCLA in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less.
