30 key betting notes for 30 NBA teams
The landscape of the NBA looks much different heading into the 2014-15 campaign. After spending four years in South Beach, LeBron James makes his triumphant return to Cleveland thanks to a severe case of homesickness and the will to bring a long-awaited championship to Northeast Ohio - and he brought some old (and new) friends with him.
Atlantic Division
Boston Celtics (2013-14: 25-57 SU, 39-41-2 ATS)
Boston is still probably at least a year or two away from contending for a playoff spot. On most nights, backing the Celtics will likely turn out to be a lesson in frustration. Avery Bradley and Jared Sullinger made positive strides a year ago, but can they live up to higher expectations in 2014? If they can't, it could be another long year in Beantown.
Philadelphia 76ers (2013-14: 19-63 SU, 36-46 ATS)
Everyone is expecting the tank project to continue, and that will undoubtedly lead to inflated lines on a nightly basis. It's easy to forget that the Sixers had last year's Rookie of the Year in Michael Carter-Williams. He wasn't the only young talented player that emerged in Philly. The building blocks are in place for the Sixers to at least play competitive basketball, even if wins might be difficult to come by.
Toronto Raptors (2013-14: 48-34 SU, 46-33-3 ATS)
Could a letdown be in order? The Raptors aren't exactly accustomed to success as a franchise, and there's some concern that we'll see a hangover from last spring's disappointing series loss to the Nets. Kyle Lowry signed a big contract in the offseason, but will he be able to live up to the lofty expectations? Simply put, Toronto could be set up to fail this season.
Brooklyn Nets (2013-14: 44-38 SU, 42-40 ATS)
An injection of youth can't hurt a team that certainly looked old at times a year ago. New head coach Lionel Hollins is an upgrade over Jason Kidd. In fact, Hollins looks like an excellent fit to get the most out of this roster. Jarrett Jack could prove to be an underrated offseason pick-up.
New York Knicks (2013-14: 37-45 SU, 38-44 ATS)
Haven't we heard all of this optimism in Manhattan before? The Knicks have disappointed year after year, and who's to say that this is the campaign that breaks the cycle. Carmelo doesn't have a standout supporting cast around him, and the Knicks still seem to get everyone's best shot at Madison Square Garden.
Central Division
Chicago Bulls (2013-14: 48-34 SU, 41-40-1 ATS)
Chicago is loaded with talent, and they have a coach in Tom Thibodeau that gets the most out of his players. With a healthy Derrick Rose, the Bulls have the potential to make a run at the title. Chicago added Pau Gasol, Aaron Brooks, Doug McDermott, and Nikola Mirotic who will bolster Chicago’s offense. The Bulls always bring their defense under Thibodeau, and if the team avoids the injury bug, Chicago will be one of the best teams in the NBA this season.
Cleveland Cavaliers (2013-14: 33-49 SU, 40-42 ATS)
LeBron James. One player makes a huge impact in the NBA, and the Cavaliers go from an also-ran to a championship contender with the return of LeBron. Cleveland also added Kevin Love who completes the most formidable duo in the NBA this season. And with future superstar Kyrie Irving forming an unmatched trio, there’s no question the Cavaliers are the best team on paper coming into this season.
Detroit Pistons (2013-14: 29-53 SU, 35-46-1 ATS)
New head coach Stan Van Gundy is a huge upgrade over the poor Detroit coaching staff of last season. Gundy’s presence alone will boost the Pistons by more than a few wins. Detroit also has one of the best young frontcourts in the league, led by Andre Drummond. The Pistons underachieved last season, but with a solid nucleus and good coaching, Detroit could easily eclipse the 40-win mark this season.
Indiana Pacers (2013-14: 56-26 SU, 38-43-1 ATS)
The team lost Lance Stephenson to free agency, and Paul George suffered a gruesome leg injury over the summer while playing for Team USA. That leaves Indiana minus their best two players on both ends of the court. The Pacers only scored 96.7 points per game last season, and with 36.2 points per game now missing, Indiana will have a terrible offense this season.
Milwaukee Bucks (2013-14: 15-67 SU, 36-45-1 ATS)
The team has solid building blocks in place, but they are still years away from competing for a playoff spot. Youth doesn’t win in the NBA, and since Milwaukee is one of the youngest teams in the league, they don’t project to have much success right away.
Southeast Division
Washington Wizards (2013-14: 43-38 SU, 42-38-1 ATS)
With Bradley Beal and John Wall, the Wizards have one of the best backcourts in the NBA. Dion Waiters might think otherwise, but I think Beal hit the nail on the head in his reply to Waiters when the two had a war of words on Twitter a few weeks back: "you gotta win a playoff game first before you can talk. You gotta be a starter first." The signing of Marcin Gortat gives Washington one of the best centers in the Eastern Conference for five more years, and at 29 years old the Polish Hammer is in the prime of his career.
Miami Heat (2013-14: 54-27 SU, 37-42-2 ATS)
Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade have a lot to prove this year, and both players have welcomed the challenge. While Luol Deng won't replace LeBron James, he still gives the Heat a formidable Big Three. The biggest thing this team might have going for it, is that they should be hungrier this year.
Atlanta Hawks (2013-14: 38-44 SU, 37-43-1 ATS)
The bad news for Atlanta is that while they hope to be better, the competition in the East is going to be much tougher than it was last year, and 38 wins isn't likely going to be enough to get into the playoffs. The Hawks did little in the off-season to address their shortcomings on the boards. Altanta ranked 28th in the NBA averaging 40 rebounds per game last season.
Charlotte Hornets (2013-14: 43-39 SU, 46-32-3 ATS)
This appears to be a young team on the rise, coming off an inspiring post-season appearance last year. They acquired Lance Stephenson via free agency, and Noah Vonleh in the draft. Veteran Al Jefferson was a nice fit last season, averaging over 20 points and 10 boards, for his best season since 2009. He has a solid supporting cast with Kemba Walker, Gerald Henderson and Cody Zeller all young players with their best years ahead of them.
Orlando Magic (2013-14: 23-59 SU, 34-44-4 ATS)
This team is clearly in a rebuilding stage, and nothing they did this summer would suggest that they have any intentions of competing this season. The plan for the future likely involves getting one of the top picks in the 2015 draft, and winning more than 28 games would put a wrinkle in that plan.
Northwest Division
Oklahoma City Thunder (2013-14: 59-23 SU, 43-37-2 ATS)
Even with Kevin Durant sidelined, the Thunder are still one of the most talented teams in the Western Conference. They have the pedigree to take another run at the conference crown, and will certainly be highly motivated after an ugly exit at the hands of the Spurs in the 2013-14 postseason. With Durant worth a few points on the spread all on his own, we could see some value open up, particularly early in the season.
Utah Jazz (2013-14: 25-57 SU, 33-43-6 ATS)
The cupboard is by no means bare for first year head coach Quin Snyder. It's a youthful roster, but not one that's short on talent. If the trio of Gordon Hayward, Alec Burks and Trey Burke can play to their capabilities, the Jazz could surprise or at the very least avoid another embarrassing finish. Thanks to posting a conference-low 25 wins last year, expectations are extremely low and that could work in Utah's favor from a betting perspective.
Portland Trail Blazers (2013-14: 54-28 SU, 44-38 ATS)
The injury to Kevin Durant could put a little extra hop in the Blazers step, as they have to feel they have a legitimate shot at stealing the division. Portland's bench held it back last year but the Blazers did make a couple of moves to improve that area, adding Chris Kaman and Steve Blake. Baby steps. The oddsmakers are expecting some regression, but on a game-to-game basis, Portland should still manage to record an above .500 ATS mark.
Denver Nuggets (2013-14: 36-46 SU, 39-43 ATS)
Even if the Nuggets stay healthy, there's no guarantee they can slip past any of the playoff incumbents in the West. Denver doesn't seem to have the same home-court advantage it once enjoyed and injuries can't be entirely to blame. Will there be a chemistry issue with so many players in and out of the lineup a year ago?
Minnesota Timberwolves (2013-14: 40-42 SU, 39-43 ATS)
The West might just provide a little too much heavy lifting for a team that is looking toward the future. Flip Saunders isn't the answer as head coach of this young squad. Things could get ugly in a hurry at the defensive end of the floor and the offense will take time to gel. To put it simply, there are too many questions and not enough answers right now.
Pacific Division
Golden State Warriors (2013-14: 51-31 SU, 41-38-3 ATS)
Golden State’s roster looks identical to last season when they won 51 games. The Warriors did add Shaun Livingston, Brandon Rush, and Leandro Barbosa to bolster their depth on the second unit. Golden State’s defense will be one of the best in the NBA with the hire of assistant coach Ron Adams who is a defensive wizard.
Los Angeles Clippers (2013-14: 57-25 SU, 46-35-1 ATS)
Los Angeles is one of a handful of teams with a legitimate shot at winning the NBA championship this season. The Clippers have a formidable duo in Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, and they got rid of some dead weight and brought in productive second unit players. Doc Rivers is one of the best coaches in the league, and his second year in LA should be better than the first.
Los Angeles Lakers (2013-14: 27-55 SU, 40-40-2 ATS)
This team is in desperate need of an overhaul. Los Angeles is old and slow, and the veterans are injury prone. The Lakers’ defense projects to be terrible this season, and since they do not possess an offense that can out-score opponents on a regular basis, it’s hard to envision much success this season. The Lakers will be hard-pressed to crack 30 wins overall.
Phoenix Suns (2013-14: 48-34 SU, 52-29-1 ATS)
Phoenix was the biggest surprise team in the NBA last season when they won 48 games as their season Over/Under win total was just 19.5 games. The Suns won’t be sneaking up on opponents this season, so don’t expect a repeat of many upsets like last year. Phoenix plays with a small lineup, so they are at a major disadvantage inside the paint. The Suns’ defense is also a liability now with the departure of Channing Frye.
Sacramento Kings (2013-14: 28-54 SU, 37-42-3 ATS)
Sacramento has a tremendous head coach in Mike Malone, and with DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay, the Kings have some good pieces to work with. They underachieved last season, and they lost of a lot of close games. The Kings are better than perceived, so they may prove to be a tough out this season.
Southwest Division
San Antonio Spurs (2013-2014: 62-20 SU)
San Antonio breezed through the regular season finishing with the league's best record last year (62-20). The Spurs are a disciplined team and very well coached under Gregg Popovich. They haven't won less than 58 games in a full season since they win 50 in 2009-2010.
New Orleans Pelicans (2013-2014: 34-48 SU)
They have one of the brightest young stars in the league in Anthony Davis. The 21 year old led the team in scoring averaging over 20 points and 10 rebounds. He also led the entire league in blocked shots. He'll have a little more help this year with Omar Asik coming over from Houston, and Jrue Holliday back from injury.
Dallas Mavericks (2013-2014: 49-33 SU)
They may have too many players on the wrong side of 30. Chandler Parsons and Monta Ellis are the only two players under 30 that will log any significant minutes this season.
Houston Rockets (2013-2014: 54-28 SU)
They lost Chandler Parsons via free agency and let Jeremy Lin go to the Lakers. Omar Asik has moved on to New Orleans, and overall this team hasn't done enough to replace the talent that it lost.
Memphis Grizzlies (2013-2014: 50-32 SU)
Memphis got off to a slow start last year, partly due to injuries. The Grizzlies finished the season strong, winning 50 games and making the playoffs. The Grizz gave the Thunder a run for their money in the first round of the playoffs, but came up short in Game 7
