Wunderdog Crotch Ball
Game: Indiana at Detroit (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Detroit -130 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 3.9)
This should be a great series with the winner advancing to the Finals. Indiana is the top seed, coming in at 24-12. They dispatched of Washington in two games, winning by nine and seven points. Detroit is just 20-16 on the season, but hold on a minute. This team started off 2-7. They have since gone 18-9 and they have won 11 of their last 13! Now I ask, which is the better team? The oddsmakers have made this one about even but they are off. It's not just the recent performance that favors Detroit. It's also the location. In the WNBA, homecourt advantage is big. Indiana, despite going 15-3 at home is just 9-9 on the road this year. Detroit is 12-6 at home. They've won seven straight at home and ten of their last twelve. Meanwhile, Indiana has gone 2-5 in their last seven road games. Detroit knows what it takes to win in the postseason, having won two of the last three championships. Detroit is hot right now having scored 94, 80, 94 and 94 in their last four games. This season the Shock are 12-5 after scoring 70+ in back-to-back games and 89-2 after reaching that figure in four straight games. They are also a near-perfect 8-1 after scoring 90 points in their prior game. I like the Shock to get it done here at home.
Game: Phoenix at Los Angeles (10:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Phoenix +3 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Do you remember that 1991 song by C&C Music Factory, "Things That Make You Go Hmmmm"? Well this game reminds me of that song. Phoenix won five more games than LA this season. Phoenix beat LA in three out of four regular season meetings. Yet, the Mercury are the underdog here. Hmmm. Phoenix is averaging 99 points in the playoffs after setting a WNBA record for points scored in the regular season (92.8 per game). Yet, they are the dog here. Hmmm. Well maybe Phoenix can't win on the road? Actually they are 11-7 away from home, not much worse than the Sparks' 12-6 home mark. Hmmm. Maybe the Mercury only beat up on lesser opponents, struggling to beat good teams. Actually, Phoenix is 12-5 ATS this season vs. winning teams including 7-0 in their last seven games. But Phoenix is coming off a poor defensive showing, allowing 92 points to San Antonio. That can't be good, right? As a matter of fact, Phoenix has done this 18 times this season and they are 14-4 ATS in games following a poor defensive effort. Finally, the Sparks are 0-8 ATS the past three seasons coming off a double-digit road win. I like Phoenix plus the points here.
Game: Indiana at Detroit (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Detroit -130 (moneyline) (risk 5 to win 3.9)
This should be a great series with the winner advancing to the Finals. Indiana is the top seed, coming in at 24-12. They dispatched of Washington in two games, winning by nine and seven points. Detroit is just 20-16 on the season, but hold on a minute. This team started off 2-7. They have since gone 18-9 and they have won 11 of their last 13! Now I ask, which is the better team? The oddsmakers have made this one about even but they are off. It's not just the recent performance that favors Detroit. It's also the location. In the WNBA, homecourt advantage is big. Indiana, despite going 15-3 at home is just 9-9 on the road this year. Detroit is 12-6 at home. They've won seven straight at home and ten of their last twelve. Meanwhile, Indiana has gone 2-5 in their last seven road games. Detroit knows what it takes to win in the postseason, having won two of the last three championships. Detroit is hot right now having scored 94, 80, 94 and 94 in their last four games. This season the Shock are 12-5 after scoring 70+ in back-to-back games and 89-2 after reaching that figure in four straight games. They are also a near-perfect 8-1 after scoring 90 points in their prior game. I like the Shock to get it done here at home.
Game: Phoenix at Los Angeles (10:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Phoenix +3 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Do you remember that 1991 song by C&C Music Factory, "Things That Make You Go Hmmmm"? Well this game reminds me of that song. Phoenix won five more games than LA this season. Phoenix beat LA in three out of four regular season meetings. Yet, the Mercury are the underdog here. Hmmm. Phoenix is averaging 99 points in the playoffs after setting a WNBA record for points scored in the regular season (92.8 per game). Yet, they are the dog here. Hmmm. Well maybe Phoenix can't win on the road? Actually they are 11-7 away from home, not much worse than the Sparks' 12-6 home mark. Hmmm. Maybe the Mercury only beat up on lesser opponents, struggling to beat good teams. Actually, Phoenix is 12-5 ATS this season vs. winning teams including 7-0 in their last seven games. But Phoenix is coming off a poor defensive showing, allowing 92 points to San Antonio. That can't be good, right? As a matter of fact, Phoenix has done this 18 times this season and they are 14-4 ATS in games following a poor defensive effort. Finally, the Sparks are 0-8 ATS the past three seasons coming off a double-digit road win. I like Phoenix plus the points here.
