Statsystems nba report 11/11
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 11/11
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
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***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - NBA *****
*** BOSTON @ MIAMI (-6.5, O/U 184) ***
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Heat coach Erik Spoelstra took a seat at the edge of Miami’s practice floor Wednesday afternoon, a grim expression on his face until LeBron James walked over a few seconds later. They chatted. They nodded. They laughed. For a moment, the first debacle of the Heat season seemed forgotten. The aftershocks of a 116-114 overtime loss to the Utah Jazz on Tuesday night, a game where Miami led by 22 points in the second quarter, 21 early in the third and even by eight with 29 seconds left in regulation, before Paul Millsap hit three straight 3-pointers to force overtime on his way to a 46-point effort, were still there on Wednesday, which was expected.
They might not be totally gone by Thursday night, either, when Miami faces Boston for the second time this season. “We still have a long way to go,” James said, “to be the team we want to be.” And that had been the Heat mantra long before Tuesday’s collapse. Ever since training camp, even before, Spoelstra has been talking about the process of turning a roster of talent into a talented team. James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh had played together before, yes, but never in a system like Miami’s, and certainly not while trying to fit a slew of new pieces together.
The Jazz exploited Miami’s inexperience together in the second half and overtime on Tuesday, sending Miami to its third loss in eight games so far, and the Celtics will try to do it again Thursday. “It’s just going to take time,” Celtics coach Doc Rivers said before his team practiced in Miami on Wednesday. “They’re going to have great nights, and then they’re going to have nights where they struggle. To me, I’ve always thought in the first year we won, it always came toward the end of games more, the execution, the timing, the speed. It just takes time.”
Entering Wednesday, the Heat had the 10th-best record in the NBA, maybe most surprisingly, just a half-game ahead of Cleveland, the team James scorned so he could chase a championship in Miami. By no means have the Heat shown that those title plans are farfetched. But that “process” the Heat are speaking of is ongoing, and won’t end anytime soon. “It hurts. It hurts to take time. No one wants to go through the process,” Wade said. “But it’s life. Everyone has to go through the process. No question, we understand that we’re a very good defensive team. We understand that our offense is coming along. And sometimes you take those things for granted.”
What galled Spoelstra most about Tuesday night’s loss wasn’t the offense, and how it is or isn’t coming along. It was the defense which apparently got left behind in the locker room at halftime. Consider these Jazz numbers: They scored 84 points after halftime, more than Orlando and New Jersey scored in entire games against Miami this season; They shot 63 percent in the final 29 minutes, their 32 field goals in that span more than Miami yielded in three other games, and they connected on 20 of 28 shots inside the paint, after going 8-for-21 from the lane in the first half.
“Where do you want to start? It was a layup drill there in the third quarter,” Spoelstra said. “We understand that. We’re a much better defensive team.” Against the Celtics, they’ll have to be, or else they could be just a game over .500 by close of business on Thursday. Boston has already topped the 100-point mark four times this season, winning each of those games, and shot 46 percent against Miami in the season-opener on Oct. 26, an 88-80 Celtics victory. And yes, the Celtics took note of what the Jazz did on Miami’s court.
“Utah’s one of the best teams in the league,” Celtics guard Ray Allen said. “If you don’t execute down the stretch, then the momentum goes in the other direction. That’s kind of how I look at it. You can make those flaws against some of the teams that are under .500 and won’t make the playoffs.” So on Wednesday, the Heat went to work correcting some of those flaws. Practice wasn’t about the Celtics; it was about the Heat, watching film, individual meetings, and all things to further dissect what went wrong against Utah.
“There are a lot of teams that would love to be 5-3,” James said. “But we’re one of those teams that are not ever satisfied. We want to continue to get better. We know in the games we lost, we had a chance, and we’ve got to continue to build from the mistakes we had in those games.”
*STAN'S FORECASTER – Miami by 6; O/U 188
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Miami -4.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Miami -2.69
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--MIAMI is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) in home games versus teams who average 48 or less rebounds/game on the season since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 94.3, OPPONENT 92.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in home games vs. excellent free throw shooting teams - making >=80% of their shots since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 90.8, OPPONENT 96.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 99.8, OPPONENT 96.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 41-26 ATS (+12.4 Units) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 99.8, OPPONENT 98.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 95.9, OPPONENT 97.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 73-49 ATS (+19.1 Units) as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 95.6, OPPONENT 100.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 95.8, OPPONENT 92.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 93.9, OPPONENT 96.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 35-21 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 93.8, OPPONENT 92.2 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--MIAMI is 44-15 UNDER (+27.5 Units) versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=21 free throws/game since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 84.4, OPPONENT 88.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--MIAMI is 49-31 OVER (+14.8 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 100.0, OPPONENT 97.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 41-25 OVER (+13.5 Units) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 99.8, OPPONENT 98.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 48-32 OVER (+12.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 99.1, OPPONENT 97.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 42-26 UNDER (+13.4 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 95.8, OPPONENT 92.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 27-13 UNDER (+12.7 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 96.2, OPPONENT 91.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 19-6 OVER (+12.4 Units) in road games after 3 straight games committing 4+ less turnovers than opponents since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 97.8, OPPONENT 102.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 16-5 UNDER (+10.5 Units) in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 91.2, OPPONENT 90.0 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--MIAMI is 9-27 against the 1rst half line (-20.7 Units) in a home game where the first half total is 90.5 to 95.5 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 46.2, OPPONENT 47.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--MIAMI is 8-22 against the 1rst half line (-16.2 Units) in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 48.1, OPPONENT 48.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 5-19 against the 1rst half line (-15.9 Units) in home games vs. excellent free throw shooting teams - making >=80% of their shots since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 44.8, OPPONENT 49.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 42-22 against the 1rst half line (+17.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 48.9, OPPONENT 45.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 40-25 against the 1rst half line (+12.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 50.8, OPPONENT 47.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--MIAMI is 40-13 UNDER (+25.6 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 straight games being called for 5+ less fouls than opponent since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 46.8, OPPONENT 43.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--BOSTON is 62-37 UNDER (+21.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus slow-down teams averaging 76 or less shots/game since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 45.3, OPPONENT 47.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 27-9 UNDER (+17.2 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 47.8, OPPONENT 45.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 29-12 OVER (+15.8 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 53.0, OPPONENT 48.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 15-4 OVER (+10.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 51.0, OPPONENT 47.0 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs (BOSTON) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
(41-11 since 1996.) (78.8%, +28.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (48-7)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.5
The average score in these games was: Team 99.3, Opponent 88.9 (Average point differential = +10.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 21 (39.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-6).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is between 90.5 and 95.5 points (MIAMI) - slow-down team averaging 76 or less shots/game on the season, after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent.
(36-11 since 1996.) (76.6%, +23.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 92.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 43.9, Opponent 42.8 (Total first half points scored = 86.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-5).
--PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (MIAMI) - after a loss by 6 points or less against opponent after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less.
(70-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.4%, +39.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.6, Opponent 44.8 (Average first half point differential = +4.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (38-11).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (226-208).
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*** GOLDEN STATE @ CHICAGO (-6.5, O/U 215) ***
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Golden State has been one of the NBA’s highest scoring teams over the past few seasons, but has struggled to make its shots in Chicago. The Warriors strive for a better offensive effort at the United Center while trying for a third straight victory Thursday night against the Bulls. Golden State has averaged 108.7 points per game since the start of the 2006-07 season, but also has shot 38.0 percent and averaged 91.9 points while losing eight of nine in Chicago. The Warriors have been held to fewer than 90 points in five of seven trips to the United Center.
One of the NBA’s worst defensive teams allowing an average of 110.0 points since 2006-07, the Warriors have yielded 107.5 per contest while losing three of four on the road to the Bulls. The Warriors hope all that changes while trying to start 7-2 for the first time since 1994-95. Golden State has not made the playoffs since 2006-07. After opening its five-game trip with a 102-97 loss at Detroit on Sunday, Golden State has posted consecutive wins over Toronto and New York.
Ex-Knick David Lee had 28 points and 10 rebounds in a 122-117 win over his former team Wednesday. “It was a great feeling,” said Lee, averaging 14.3 points and 11.3 rebounds in his first season with the Warriors. “It would have been all for nothing if we wouldn’t have won the game.” Lee has averaged 21.7 points and 15.0 boards in his last three games versus the Bulls. Stephen Curry had 25 points with eight assists and Monta Ellis added 22 on Wednesday after injuring his back two nights earlier during a fourth-quarter fall at Toronto.
Curry, who has totaled 59 points in the last two games, was held to six in 27 minutes of a 96-91 overtime loss at Chicago on Dec. 11. “Right now, he is in a growth cycle and he will continue to develop,” Coach Keith Smart told the Warriors’ official website. Among the NBA’s top scorers, Ellis is averaging 27.1 points this season and 27.8 in his last four against the Bulls.
Chicago looks for a second straight solid defensive effort after beating Denver 94-92 on Monday to improve to 3-1 at the United Center. The Bulls have held three of their four home opponents to fewer than 100 points. Derrick Rose had 18 points while Joakim Noah added 13 with 19 rebounds. Noah (15.7 ppg, 15.0 rpg) has double-doubles in all six games, the first Bull to do that since Artis Gilmore in the first 11 games of the 1978-79 season. Noah has totaled 32 points, 31 rebounds and seven blocks in his last two home games versus Golden State.
“(Noah) blocks shots and holds the paint down,” Nuggets star Carmelo Anthony said. “(He is an) energy guy.” With top overall pick John Wall and Washington coming to town Saturday, the Bulls hope to string together two more wins and gain some momentum before the annual “Circus Trip” that starts Tuesday in Houston and goes continues for seven games until Nov. 27. “It’s always been a bad trip,” Luol Deng told the Bulls’ official website. “So we’ve got to take care of home court and get these next two.”
*STAN'S FORECASTER – Chicago by 4; O/U 214
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Chicago -2.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Chicago -1.64
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--CHICAGO is 15-33 ATS (-21.3 Units) in home games after a close win by 3 points or less since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 95.6, OPPONENT 96.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 51-80 ATS (-37.0 Units) as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points since 1996.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 94.5, OPPONENT 103.9 - (Rating = 5*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 26-6 ATS (+19.4 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 114.8, OPPONENT 113.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) in road games after scoring 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 100.9, OPPONENT 113.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in road games after scoring 110 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 100.2, OPPONENT 113.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 109.1, OPPONENT 111.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 110.3, OPPONENT 112.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 111.0, OPPONENT 115.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 29-15 ATS (+12.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 112.0, OPPONENT 111.5 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--CHICAGO is 66-40 UNDER (+22.0 Units) in home games versus foul prone teams - called for 24 or more fouls/game since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 92.8, OPPONENT 89.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--CHICAGO is 62-38 UNDER (+20.2 Units) in home games after 2 straight games giving up 10 or less offensive rebounds since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 92.3, OPPONENT 92.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 16-4 OVER (+11.6 Units) in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 108.9, OPPONENT 103.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 66-34 OVER (+28.6 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games since 1996.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 108.2, OPPONENT 106.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 44-24 UNDER (+17.5 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 105.3, OPPONENT 114.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 29-11 UNDER (+16.9 Units) in road games after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 101.0, OPPONENT 111.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 31-13 UNDER (+16.7 Units) in road games after allowing 110 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 103.5, OPPONENT 111.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 22-9 UNDER (+12.1 Units) in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 102.7, OPPONENT 111.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--CHICAGO is 33-58 against the 1rst half line (-30.8 Units) after a close win by 3 points or less since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 46.7, OPPONENT 49.4 - (Rating = 4*)
--CHICAGO is 47-21 against the 1rst half line (+23.8 Units) in home games versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 48.5, OPPONENT 45.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 24-40 against the 1rst half line (-20.2 Units) as a home favorite vs. the 1rst half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 49.8, OPPONENT 50.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 68-45 against the 1rst half line (+18.4 Units) as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 54.3, OPPONENT 57.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 23-10 against the 1rst half line (+12.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 55.3, OPPONENT 56.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 15-4 against the 1rst half line (+10.5 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 58.6, OPPONENT 55.5 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--CHICAGO is 66-41 UNDER (+20.8 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus foul prone teams - called for 24 or more fouls/game since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 46.3, OPPONENT 44.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 19-7 OVER (+11.4 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 50.2, OPPONENT 53.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 19-6 OVER (+12.4 Units) the 1rst half total when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 57.2, OPPONENT 57.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 20-8 OVER (+11.2 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 55.9, OPPONENT 60.7 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY OVER - All teams where the first half total is greater than 100 (CHICAGO) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games. (76-40 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.5%, +32 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 105.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 53, Opponent 54.4 (Total first half points scored = 107.3)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (57-26).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (99-64).
--PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season.
(103-57 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.4%, +40.3 units. Rating = 2*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (129-34 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.8
The average score in these games was: Team 101.9, Opponent 94.1 (Average point differential = +7.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 58 (36% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (72-31).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (226-167).
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 11/11
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
______________________________________________
***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - NBA *****
*** BOSTON @ MIAMI (-6.5, O/U 184) ***
--------------------------------------------------
Heat coach Erik Spoelstra took a seat at the edge of Miami’s practice floor Wednesday afternoon, a grim expression on his face until LeBron James walked over a few seconds later. They chatted. They nodded. They laughed. For a moment, the first debacle of the Heat season seemed forgotten. The aftershocks of a 116-114 overtime loss to the Utah Jazz on Tuesday night, a game where Miami led by 22 points in the second quarter, 21 early in the third and even by eight with 29 seconds left in regulation, before Paul Millsap hit three straight 3-pointers to force overtime on his way to a 46-point effort, were still there on Wednesday, which was expected.
They might not be totally gone by Thursday night, either, when Miami faces Boston for the second time this season. “We still have a long way to go,” James said, “to be the team we want to be.” And that had been the Heat mantra long before Tuesday’s collapse. Ever since training camp, even before, Spoelstra has been talking about the process of turning a roster of talent into a talented team. James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh had played together before, yes, but never in a system like Miami’s, and certainly not while trying to fit a slew of new pieces together.
The Jazz exploited Miami’s inexperience together in the second half and overtime on Tuesday, sending Miami to its third loss in eight games so far, and the Celtics will try to do it again Thursday. “It’s just going to take time,” Celtics coach Doc Rivers said before his team practiced in Miami on Wednesday. “They’re going to have great nights, and then they’re going to have nights where they struggle. To me, I’ve always thought in the first year we won, it always came toward the end of games more, the execution, the timing, the speed. It just takes time.”
Entering Wednesday, the Heat had the 10th-best record in the NBA, maybe most surprisingly, just a half-game ahead of Cleveland, the team James scorned so he could chase a championship in Miami. By no means have the Heat shown that those title plans are farfetched. But that “process” the Heat are speaking of is ongoing, and won’t end anytime soon. “It hurts. It hurts to take time. No one wants to go through the process,” Wade said. “But it’s life. Everyone has to go through the process. No question, we understand that we’re a very good defensive team. We understand that our offense is coming along. And sometimes you take those things for granted.”
What galled Spoelstra most about Tuesday night’s loss wasn’t the offense, and how it is or isn’t coming along. It was the defense which apparently got left behind in the locker room at halftime. Consider these Jazz numbers: They scored 84 points after halftime, more than Orlando and New Jersey scored in entire games against Miami this season; They shot 63 percent in the final 29 minutes, their 32 field goals in that span more than Miami yielded in three other games, and they connected on 20 of 28 shots inside the paint, after going 8-for-21 from the lane in the first half.
“Where do you want to start? It was a layup drill there in the third quarter,” Spoelstra said. “We understand that. We’re a much better defensive team.” Against the Celtics, they’ll have to be, or else they could be just a game over .500 by close of business on Thursday. Boston has already topped the 100-point mark four times this season, winning each of those games, and shot 46 percent against Miami in the season-opener on Oct. 26, an 88-80 Celtics victory. And yes, the Celtics took note of what the Jazz did on Miami’s court.
“Utah’s one of the best teams in the league,” Celtics guard Ray Allen said. “If you don’t execute down the stretch, then the momentum goes in the other direction. That’s kind of how I look at it. You can make those flaws against some of the teams that are under .500 and won’t make the playoffs.” So on Wednesday, the Heat went to work correcting some of those flaws. Practice wasn’t about the Celtics; it was about the Heat, watching film, individual meetings, and all things to further dissect what went wrong against Utah.
“There are a lot of teams that would love to be 5-3,” James said. “But we’re one of those teams that are not ever satisfied. We want to continue to get better. We know in the games we lost, we had a chance, and we’ve got to continue to build from the mistakes we had in those games.”
*STAN'S FORECASTER – Miami by 6; O/U 188
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Miami -4.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Miami -2.69
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--MIAMI is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) in home games versus teams who average 48 or less rebounds/game on the season since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 94.3, OPPONENT 92.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) in home games vs. excellent free throw shooting teams - making >=80% of their shots since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 90.8, OPPONENT 96.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) after allowing 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 99.8, OPPONENT 96.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 41-26 ATS (+12.4 Units) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 99.8, OPPONENT 98.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 95.9, OPPONENT 97.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 73-49 ATS (+19.1 Units) as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 95.6, OPPONENT 100.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 95.8, OPPONENT 92.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 93.9, OPPONENT 96.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 35-21 ATS (+11.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 93.8, OPPONENT 92.2 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--MIAMI is 44-15 UNDER (+27.5 Units) versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=21 free throws/game since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 84.4, OPPONENT 88.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--MIAMI is 49-31 OVER (+14.8 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 100.0, OPPONENT 97.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 41-25 OVER (+13.5 Units) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 99.8, OPPONENT 98.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 48-32 OVER (+12.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 99.1, OPPONENT 97.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 42-26 UNDER (+13.4 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 95.8, OPPONENT 92.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 27-13 UNDER (+12.7 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 96.2, OPPONENT 91.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 19-6 OVER (+12.4 Units) in road games after 3 straight games committing 4+ less turnovers than opponents since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 97.8, OPPONENT 102.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 16-5 UNDER (+10.5 Units) in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 91.2, OPPONENT 90.0 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--MIAMI is 9-27 against the 1rst half line (-20.7 Units) in a home game where the first half total is 90.5 to 95.5 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 46.2, OPPONENT 47.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--MIAMI is 8-22 against the 1rst half line (-16.2 Units) in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 48.1, OPPONENT 48.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 5-19 against the 1rst half line (-15.9 Units) in home games vs. excellent free throw shooting teams - making >=80% of their shots since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 44.8, OPPONENT 49.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 42-22 against the 1rst half line (+17.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 48.9, OPPONENT 45.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 40-25 against the 1rst half line (+12.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 50.8, OPPONENT 47.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--MIAMI is 40-13 UNDER (+25.6 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 straight games being called for 5+ less fouls than opponent since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 46.8, OPPONENT 43.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--BOSTON is 62-37 UNDER (+21.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus slow-down teams averaging 76 or less shots/game since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 45.3, OPPONENT 47.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 27-9 UNDER (+17.2 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 47.8, OPPONENT 45.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 29-12 OVER (+15.8 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 53.0, OPPONENT 48.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 15-4 OVER (+10.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 51.0, OPPONENT 47.0 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs (BOSTON) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).
(41-11 since 1996.) (78.8%, +28.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (48-7)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.5
The average score in these games was: Team 99.3, Opponent 88.9 (Average point differential = +10.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 21 (39.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-5).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-6).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is between 90.5 and 95.5 points (MIAMI) - slow-down team averaging 76 or less shots/game on the season, after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent.
(36-11 since 1996.) (76.6%, +23.9 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 92.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 43.9, Opponent 42.8 (Total first half points scored = 86.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-5).
--PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (MIAMI) - after a loss by 6 points or less against opponent after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less.
(70-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.4%, +39.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.6, Opponent 44.8 (Average first half point differential = +4.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (38-11).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (226-208).
___________________________________________
NBA betting is becoming more popular each year. This is known as one of the sports where a smart bettor who practiced proper money management can make some really huge profits. Once a bettor begins to study and understand NBA Odds, he or she can gain a better understanding of how the bookies set their numbers. The bookies set a lot of these NBA Odds with the public in mind. They know the public is going to bet the Lakers and Bulls (and other public teams) every week so there are some great situations to get good numbers by going against teams like that.
It is always best to shop around when looking for the best NBA Odds. Many different books release different numbers and NBA Odds always tend to differ at each sportsbook. If you are truly interested in finding the best NBA Odds, it is always best to have funded accounts at - at least five sportsbooks.
_____________________________________________
*** GOLDEN STATE @ CHICAGO (-6.5, O/U 215) ***
-------------------------------------------------------------
Golden State has been one of the NBA’s highest scoring teams over the past few seasons, but has struggled to make its shots in Chicago. The Warriors strive for a better offensive effort at the United Center while trying for a third straight victory Thursday night against the Bulls. Golden State has averaged 108.7 points per game since the start of the 2006-07 season, but also has shot 38.0 percent and averaged 91.9 points while losing eight of nine in Chicago. The Warriors have been held to fewer than 90 points in five of seven trips to the United Center.
One of the NBA’s worst defensive teams allowing an average of 110.0 points since 2006-07, the Warriors have yielded 107.5 per contest while losing three of four on the road to the Bulls. The Warriors hope all that changes while trying to start 7-2 for the first time since 1994-95. Golden State has not made the playoffs since 2006-07. After opening its five-game trip with a 102-97 loss at Detroit on Sunday, Golden State has posted consecutive wins over Toronto and New York.
Ex-Knick David Lee had 28 points and 10 rebounds in a 122-117 win over his former team Wednesday. “It was a great feeling,” said Lee, averaging 14.3 points and 11.3 rebounds in his first season with the Warriors. “It would have been all for nothing if we wouldn’t have won the game.” Lee has averaged 21.7 points and 15.0 boards in his last three games versus the Bulls. Stephen Curry had 25 points with eight assists and Monta Ellis added 22 on Wednesday after injuring his back two nights earlier during a fourth-quarter fall at Toronto.
Curry, who has totaled 59 points in the last two games, was held to six in 27 minutes of a 96-91 overtime loss at Chicago on Dec. 11. “Right now, he is in a growth cycle and he will continue to develop,” Coach Keith Smart told the Warriors’ official website. Among the NBA’s top scorers, Ellis is averaging 27.1 points this season and 27.8 in his last four against the Bulls.
Chicago looks for a second straight solid defensive effort after beating Denver 94-92 on Monday to improve to 3-1 at the United Center. The Bulls have held three of their four home opponents to fewer than 100 points. Derrick Rose had 18 points while Joakim Noah added 13 with 19 rebounds. Noah (15.7 ppg, 15.0 rpg) has double-doubles in all six games, the first Bull to do that since Artis Gilmore in the first 11 games of the 1978-79 season. Noah has totaled 32 points, 31 rebounds and seven blocks in his last two home games versus Golden State.
“(Noah) blocks shots and holds the paint down,” Nuggets star Carmelo Anthony said. “(He is an) energy guy.” With top overall pick John Wall and Washington coming to town Saturday, the Bulls hope to string together two more wins and gain some momentum before the annual “Circus Trip” that starts Tuesday in Houston and goes continues for seven games until Nov. 27. “It’s always been a bad trip,” Luol Deng told the Bulls’ official website. “So we’ve got to take care of home court and get these next two.”
*STAN'S FORECASTER – Chicago by 4; O/U 214
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Chicago -2.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Chicago -1.64
_________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 15-33 ATS (-21.3 Units) in home games after a close win by 3 points or less since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 95.6, OPPONENT 96.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 51-80 ATS (-37.0 Units) as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points since 1996.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 94.5, OPPONENT 103.9 - (Rating = 5*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 26-6 ATS (+19.4 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 114.8, OPPONENT 113.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 16-31 ATS (-18.1 Units) in road games after scoring 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 100.9, OPPONENT 113.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in road games after scoring 110 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 100.2, OPPONENT 113.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 109.1, OPPONENT 111.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 110.3, OPPONENT 112.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 111.0, OPPONENT 115.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 29-15 ATS (+12.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 112.0, OPPONENT 111.5 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 66-40 UNDER (+22.0 Units) in home games versus foul prone teams - called for 24 or more fouls/game since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 92.8, OPPONENT 89.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--CHICAGO is 62-38 UNDER (+20.2 Units) in home games after 2 straight games giving up 10 or less offensive rebounds since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 92.3, OPPONENT 92.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 16-4 OVER (+11.6 Units) in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 108.9, OPPONENT 103.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 66-34 OVER (+28.6 Units) after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games since 1996.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 108.2, OPPONENT 106.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 44-24 UNDER (+17.5 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 105.3, OPPONENT 114.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 29-11 UNDER (+16.9 Units) in road games after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 101.0, OPPONENT 111.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 31-13 UNDER (+16.7 Units) in road games after allowing 110 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 103.5, OPPONENT 111.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 22-9 UNDER (+12.1 Units) in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 102.7, OPPONENT 111.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 33-58 against the 1rst half line (-30.8 Units) after a close win by 3 points or less since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 46.7, OPPONENT 49.4 - (Rating = 4*)
--CHICAGO is 47-21 against the 1rst half line (+23.8 Units) in home games versus teams who average 9 or more steals/game on the season since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 48.5, OPPONENT 45.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 24-40 against the 1rst half line (-20.2 Units) as a home favorite vs. the 1rst half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 49.8, OPPONENT 50.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 68-45 against the 1rst half line (+18.4 Units) as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 54.3, OPPONENT 57.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 23-10 against the 1rst half line (+12.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 55.3, OPPONENT 56.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 15-4 against the 1rst half line (+10.5 Units) when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 58.6, OPPONENT 55.5 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--CHICAGO is 66-41 UNDER (+20.8 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus foul prone teams - called for 24 or more fouls/game since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 46.3, OPPONENT 44.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 19-7 OVER (+11.4 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 50.2, OPPONENT 53.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 19-6 OVER (+12.4 Units) the 1rst half total when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 57.2, OPPONENT 57.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--GOLDEN STATE is 20-8 OVER (+11.2 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was GOLDEN STATE 55.9, OPPONENT 60.7 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the first half total is greater than 100 (CHICAGO) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games. (76-40 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.5%, +32 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 105.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 53, Opponent 54.4 (Total first half points scored = 107.3)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (57-26).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (99-64).
--PLAY AGAINST - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - after having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season.
(103-57 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.4%, +40.3 units. Rating = 2*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (129-34 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.8
The average score in these games was: Team 101.9, Opponent 94.1 (Average point differential = +7.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 58 (36% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (72-31).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (226-167).
STATSYSTEMS NBA REPORT 11/11 cont.
*** LA LAKERS (-3, O/U 211) @ DENVER ***
-----------------------------------------------------
The Los Angeles Lakers turned in possibly their worst performance in their last game, but at least they got a victory. It was a completely different story for the Denver Nuggets. The Lakers will try to improve to 9-0 for the second time in their history Thursday night when they visit a Nuggets team that was embarrassed its last time out. Los Angeles matched the 1987-88 team for the second-best start in club history with a lackluster 99-94 victory over Minnesota on Tuesday. Only the 1997-98 Lakers were better, starting 11-0.
Kobe Bryant scored 33 points and Pau Gasol had 18 and 10 rebounds for Los Angeles, which was not sharp after coach Phil Jackson canceled practice Monday. “You want to go back and try and figure out what you can do better,” Jackson said. “It’s not so much as a stopping point. We’re going to have losses, we know this is a long season. We know we are going to have losses. “So in the process sometimes I tell the team maybe it would have been better if we had lost that game than win it. Because you think you’re OK because the end score was OK.”
The Lakers’ disappointment, though, pales in comparison to how the Nuggets felt about their effort Tuesday. Denver fell 144-113 at Indiana, allowing the Pacers to make 20 of 21 shots in a 54-point third quarter. “Hopefully we will use this to respond well to the Lakers Thursday,” Coach George Karl said. “This goes in the bad column. But we’ve had some good also. I’m not going to go negative.”
The Lakers and Nuggets met in the Western Conference finals two seasons ago, with Los Angeles winning in six games. Denver won three of four meetings last season, and Bryant and Carmelo Anthony each sat out once. “They definitely bring their ‘A’ game whenever they face us,” Bryant said. Bryant did not play well against Denver last season, averaging 22.0 points on 37.5 percent shooting. He shot 29.4 percent and averaged 16.5 points in the two meetings Anthony also played in.
Anthony will try to bounce back after he scored a season-low 13 points on 5-for-15 shooting Tuesday. He averaged 25.7 points on 47.5 percent shooting against the Lakers last season. “His strength and his quickness,” said Bryant when asked to describe Anthony’s best attributes. “Strong as a bull and quick as a cat. He can shoot the long ball, shoot the mid-range, he can post up. He can go left, he can go right. He’s a complete player.”
The Nuggets allowed Indiana to make 16 of 30 3-pointers Tuesday, and that’s sure to be a concern two nights later with the Lakers leading the NBA with a 43.5 percentage from beyond the arc. Los Angeles was outrebounded 54-42 against Minnesota, and expects a similar challenge from Denver’s big men. “They’re a physical frontcourt,” Gasol said. “They play hard. Obviously at home, they play a little better. I’m sure they are ready to bounce back after the couple of losses that they had. So we have to be ready to go out there and play a tough game.”
*STAN'S FORECASTER – Lakers by 2; O/U 207
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Lakers -4.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Lakers -4.29
________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--DENVER is 68-42 ATS (+21.8 Units) in home games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 99.9, OPPONENT 97.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 14-32 ATS (-21.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 107.6, OPPONENT 105.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 103.2, OPPONENT 103.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--DENVER is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 104.3, OPPONENT 105.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--DENVER is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 98.6, OPPONENT 105.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--DENVER is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 104.2, OPPONENT 101.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--LA LAKERS are 22-34 ATS (-15.4 Units) after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 100.4, OPPONENT 95.4 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--DENVER is 39-20 UNDER (+17.2 Units) versus excellent teams - shooting >=46% with a defense of <=43% since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 91.5, OPPONENT 98.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 24-9 UNDER (+14.1 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 103.7, OPPONENT 99.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--DENVER is 22-8 UNDER (+13.2 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 98.6, OPPONENT 100.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--DENVER is 16-3 OVER (+12.7 Units) in home games after 2 straight games being outrebounded by opponent by 10 or more since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 107.9, OPPONENT 103.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--LA LAKERS are 30-13 OVER (+15.6 Units) in road games vs. horrible rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 5+/game since 1996.
The average score was LA LAKERS 103.8, OPPONENT 101.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 46-29 UNDER (+14.1 Units) after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 101.9, OPPONENT 97.1 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--DENVER is 12-32 against the 1rst half line (-23.2 Units) after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 51.6, OPPONENT 53.4 - (Rating = 4*)
--DENVER is 60-34 against the 1rst half line (+22.6 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 53.0, OPPONENT 49.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 15-30 against the 1rst half line (-18.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 53.4, OPPONENT 54.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 4-18 against the 1rst half line (-15.8 Units) after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 50.8, OPPONENT 54.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 64-45 against the 1rst half line (+14.5 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 53.6, OPPONENT 51.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--LA LAKERS are 18-34 against the 1rst half line (-19.4 Units) in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 50.6, OPPONENT 51.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 15-28 against the 1rst half line (-15.8 Units) in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 51.2, OPPONENT 51.4 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--DENVER is 67-42 OVER (+20.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 54.3, OPPONENT 56.2 - (Rating = 4*)
--DENVER is 49-28 UNDER (+18.2 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 47.1, OPPONENT 50.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 64-44 OVER (+15.5 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 55.5, OPPONENT 51.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 48-30 UNDER (+15.0 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 52.1, OPPONENT 48.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--LA LAKERS are 28-13 UNDER (+13.6 Units) the 1rst half total after playing 4 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 51.5, OPPONENT 48.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the first half total is greater than 100 (DENVER) - in a game involving two excellent free throw shooting teams (>=79%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's).
(48-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.6%, +26 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 106.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 54.9, Opponent 54.9 (Total first half points scored = 109.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-18).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (66-56).
--PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (DENVER) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
(53-24 since 1996.) (68.8%, +26.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.1, Opponent 46 (Average first half point differential = +5.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-12).
*** LA LAKERS (-3, O/U 211) @ DENVER ***
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The Los Angeles Lakers turned in possibly their worst performance in their last game, but at least they got a victory. It was a completely different story for the Denver Nuggets. The Lakers will try to improve to 9-0 for the second time in their history Thursday night when they visit a Nuggets team that was embarrassed its last time out. Los Angeles matched the 1987-88 team for the second-best start in club history with a lackluster 99-94 victory over Minnesota on Tuesday. Only the 1997-98 Lakers were better, starting 11-0.
Kobe Bryant scored 33 points and Pau Gasol had 18 and 10 rebounds for Los Angeles, which was not sharp after coach Phil Jackson canceled practice Monday. “You want to go back and try and figure out what you can do better,” Jackson said. “It’s not so much as a stopping point. We’re going to have losses, we know this is a long season. We know we are going to have losses. “So in the process sometimes I tell the team maybe it would have been better if we had lost that game than win it. Because you think you’re OK because the end score was OK.”
The Lakers’ disappointment, though, pales in comparison to how the Nuggets felt about their effort Tuesday. Denver fell 144-113 at Indiana, allowing the Pacers to make 20 of 21 shots in a 54-point third quarter. “Hopefully we will use this to respond well to the Lakers Thursday,” Coach George Karl said. “This goes in the bad column. But we’ve had some good also. I’m not going to go negative.”
The Lakers and Nuggets met in the Western Conference finals two seasons ago, with Los Angeles winning in six games. Denver won three of four meetings last season, and Bryant and Carmelo Anthony each sat out once. “They definitely bring their ‘A’ game whenever they face us,” Bryant said. Bryant did not play well against Denver last season, averaging 22.0 points on 37.5 percent shooting. He shot 29.4 percent and averaged 16.5 points in the two meetings Anthony also played in.
Anthony will try to bounce back after he scored a season-low 13 points on 5-for-15 shooting Tuesday. He averaged 25.7 points on 47.5 percent shooting against the Lakers last season. “His strength and his quickness,” said Bryant when asked to describe Anthony’s best attributes. “Strong as a bull and quick as a cat. He can shoot the long ball, shoot the mid-range, he can post up. He can go left, he can go right. He’s a complete player.”
The Nuggets allowed Indiana to make 16 of 30 3-pointers Tuesday, and that’s sure to be a concern two nights later with the Lakers leading the NBA with a 43.5 percentage from beyond the arc. Los Angeles was outrebounded 54-42 against Minnesota, and expects a similar challenge from Denver’s big men. “They’re a physical frontcourt,” Gasol said. “They play hard. Obviously at home, they play a little better. I’m sure they are ready to bounce back after the couple of losses that they had. So we have to be ready to go out there and play a tough game.”
*STAN'S FORECASTER – Lakers by 2; O/U 207
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Lakers -4.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Lakers -4.29
________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--DENVER is 68-42 ATS (+21.8 Units) in home games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds/game on the season since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 99.9, OPPONENT 97.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 14-32 ATS (-21.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 107.6, OPPONENT 105.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 103.2, OPPONENT 103.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--DENVER is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 104.3, OPPONENT 105.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--DENVER is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 98.6, OPPONENT 105.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--DENVER is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 104.2, OPPONENT 101.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--LA LAKERS are 22-34 ATS (-15.4 Units) after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 100.4, OPPONENT 95.4 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--DENVER is 39-20 UNDER (+17.2 Units) versus excellent teams - shooting >=46% with a defense of <=43% since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 91.5, OPPONENT 98.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 24-9 UNDER (+14.1 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 103.7, OPPONENT 99.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--DENVER is 22-8 UNDER (+13.2 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 98.6, OPPONENT 100.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--DENVER is 16-3 OVER (+12.7 Units) in home games after 2 straight games being outrebounded by opponent by 10 or more since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 107.9, OPPONENT 103.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--LA LAKERS are 30-13 OVER (+15.6 Units) in road games vs. horrible rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 5+/game since 1996.
The average score was LA LAKERS 103.8, OPPONENT 101.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 46-29 UNDER (+14.1 Units) after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 101.9, OPPONENT 97.1 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--DENVER is 12-32 against the 1rst half line (-23.2 Units) after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 51.6, OPPONENT 53.4 - (Rating = 4*)
--DENVER is 60-34 against the 1rst half line (+22.6 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 53.0, OPPONENT 49.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 15-30 against the 1rst half line (-18.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 53.4, OPPONENT 54.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 4-18 against the 1rst half line (-15.8 Units) after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 50.8, OPPONENT 54.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 64-45 against the 1rst half line (+14.5 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 53.6, OPPONENT 51.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--LA LAKERS are 18-34 against the 1rst half line (-19.4 Units) in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 50.6, OPPONENT 51.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 15-28 against the 1rst half line (-15.8 Units) in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 51.2, OPPONENT 51.4 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--DENVER is 67-42 OVER (+20.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 54.3, OPPONENT 56.2 - (Rating = 4*)
--DENVER is 49-28 UNDER (+18.2 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was DENVER 47.1, OPPONENT 50.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 64-44 OVER (+15.5 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 55.5, OPPONENT 51.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 48-30 UNDER (+15.0 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 52.1, OPPONENT 48.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--LA LAKERS are 28-13 UNDER (+13.6 Units) the 1rst half total after playing 4 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 51.5, OPPONENT 48.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the first half total is greater than 100 (DENVER) - in a game involving two excellent free throw shooting teams (>=79%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's).
(48-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.6%, +26 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 106.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 54.9, Opponent 54.9 (Total first half points scored = 109.8)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-18).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (66-56).
--PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (DENVER) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
(53-24 since 1996.) (68.8%, +26.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.1, Opponent 46 (Average first half point differential = +5.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-12).
Thursday NBA PLay- GC
On Thursday the Bonus Play is on the Miami Heat. Game 502 at 8:05 eastern on TNT. Miami blew a big lead the other night in a home loss to Utah. Tonight there back at home against a Hot Celtics team that gave us our first winner of the year on Opening night when they beat Miami as a home dog. Tonight Miami will be poised to turn the tables and serve up there revenge on a cold platter. Take Miami tonight. For the Bonus Play take the Miami Heat. GC
On Thursday the Bonus Play is on the Miami Heat. Game 502 at 8:05 eastern on TNT. Miami blew a big lead the other night in a home loss to Utah. Tonight there back at home against a Hot Celtics team that gave us our first winner of the year on Opening night when they beat Miami as a home dog. Tonight Miami will be poised to turn the tables and serve up there revenge on a cold platter. Take Miami tonight. For the Bonus Play take the Miami Heat. GC
VIKING SPORTS
NHL:
[FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]Buffalo/NY Rangers under 5'[/FONT]
[FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]Philadelphia/Carolina under 5’[/FONT]
[FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]Montreal/Boston OVER 5’[/FONT]
Tampa Bay/Washington OVER 6
Dallas/LA Kings under 5'
NBA:
Miami Heat -7
Golden St/Chicago under 214'
NHL:
[FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]Buffalo/NY Rangers under 5'[/FONT]
[FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]Philadelphia/Carolina under 5’[/FONT]
[FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]Montreal/Boston OVER 5’[/FONT]
Tampa Bay/Washington OVER 6
Dallas/LA Kings under 5'
NBA:
Miami Heat -7
Golden St/Chicago under 214'
KEITH FREDERICK
Ravens at Falcons
Pick: Falcons -1
Both of Baltimore's losses this season came on the road (Cincy & Pitt), and Falcons are undefeated at home. Adding to the value on the Falcons is that they are the much younger team, so the shorter week should be easier on them. (Both teams had their byes two weeks ago, so no rest or prep edge there) Finally, Thursday Night home favorites of 2' or less are 6-0 ATS in the last 14 years, and Atlanta fits an 11-4-1 ATS Thursday system as well.
Ravens at Falcons
Pick: Falcons -1
Both of Baltimore's losses this season came on the road (Cincy & Pitt), and Falcons are undefeated at home. Adding to the value on the Falcons is that they are the much younger team, so the shorter week should be easier on them. (Both teams had their byes two weeks ago, so no rest or prep edge there) Finally, Thursday Night home favorites of 2' or less are 6-0 ATS in the last 14 years, and Atlanta fits an 11-4-1 ATS Thursday system as well.
