STATSYSTEMS REPORT 11/11 VOL. I cont.
*** PITTSBURGH (-5.5, O/U 46.5) @ CONNECTICUT ***
Pittsburgh will try to pull further away from the rest of the competition in the Big East Conference, when the Panthers travel to East Hartford to battle the Connecticut Huskies this Thursday night at Rentschler Field. Pittsburgh is looking to go 4-0 in league play for the second straight season, and heads into this meeting with UConn riding high on a three-game winning streak in which they outscored the opposition 106-38. This past weekend the Panthers had no trouble against Louisville, as coach Dave Wannstedt's squad grabbed a 20-3 victory over the Cardinals.
The Huskies snapped a two-game slide the last time they were in action, defeating West Virginia by a 16-13 margin in overtime. It was the first league win on the year for UConn, which is currently a perfect 4-0 at home this season. The Panthers have won the last two meetings against Connecticut to even the series at three games apiece. However, at Rentschler Field, the Huskies own a slim 2-1 edge over Pitt.
The Panthers are not explosive offensively, but the team possesses a very balanced attack that is averaging a healthy 29.0 ppg. Coach Wannstedt has two solid options out of the backfield in Ray Graham and Dion Lewis, and both players have paced Pitt's ground game, which is churning out a respectable 156.2 ypg. The rushing attack has been successful because Tino Sunseri has done a terrific job passing the ball. Through eight games, Pitt's quarterback has completed 65.9 percent of his throws, and although he has just 1,672 yards, he comes into this contest with 12 touchdowns against four interceptions.
In the recent win over Louisville, the offense was not overwhelming, but did enough to earn a victory. Pitt, which finished with 132 yards on 3.6 yards per carry, was paced by Lewis' 65 yards and one score. Graham contributed 40 yards and another touchdown for coach Wannstedt, while Sunseri managed the game well, throwing for 123 yards on 13-of-24 passing. While the offense has done a commendable job, it has been the play of the defense for Pittsburgh, that has the Panthers leading the Big East. Coach Wannstedt's unit is one of the best in the nation, and is currently holding opponents to just 19.0 ppg.
Pitt came into the season with a commitment to stop the run, and so far the Panthers have been outstanding in that area, limiting teams to a mere 93.8 ypg on just 3.0 yards per carry. This unit has been slightly suspect against the pass however, as opponents are averaging 205.2 ypg through the air. Through eight games the Panthers have allowed nine passing touchdowns, but have come away with eight interceptions. Along with those interceptions, the defense has recorded 24 sacks, which means the Panthers are providing enough pressure to make opposing quarterbacks make mistakes.
Coach Wannstedt's defense put forth a strong showing against a tough Louisville squad this past weekend, as the Panthers held the Cardinals to just 185 total yards. Louisville did manage to post 103 rushing yards, but did so on 3.2 yards per attempt, so the defense clearly did not have too much trouble with a hobbled Bilal Powell. This unit also caused fits for Louisville's quarterback, Adam Froman, as the Panthers held the veteran signal caller to just 82 yards, intercepted him once and also sacked three times.
The Huskies are not as evenly keeled as Pittsburgh offensively, but they do possess a dangerous ground attack (174.8 ypg), that is led by one of the top running backs in the nation. Jordan Todman has suffered through some minor injuries this season, but that has not stopped the back from churning out 954 yards and nine scores in seven games. However, Todman and the rushing attack has the pressure of carrying this offense, because so far Zach Frazer has been unable to produce under center. The quarterback has completed just 55.5 percent of his throws on the year and comes into this contest with only two touchdowns and 771 yards.
In the team's recent win over West Virginia, it was once again the Todman show, as UConn's sensational back rumbled for 113 yards and one touchdown on 33 carries. Other than his touchdown run, the only points scored by the Huskies came off the foot of kicker Dave Teggart, who drilled three field goals. Once again, Frazer was not much help, as the signal caller finished with just 166 yards and was sacked four times.
Inconsistent play has riddled this defensive unit, and Connecticut's lackluster effort at times is a big reason for the team's mediocre 4-4 mark. The Huskies have allowed 10 touchdowns through the air, and teams are enjoying 200.4 ypg against UConn in that area, but the real problem for this unit has come against the run, as teams are gashing UConn for 163.9 ypg.
It is amazing that the Huskies grabbed a victory against West Virginia, considering the Mountaineers gashed this unit for 254 yards on 5.4 yards per attempt. Even though the Huskies surrendered just 13 points, it was still a bad showing by this defense, which continues to struggle against the run. The only reason UConn was victorious was because the Huskies grabbed four fumbles, so not all was bad on this side of the ball for UConn. However, the Huskies are not going to be fortunate enough to collect four turnovers a game, so this unit is going to have to tighten up against the run, or a chance at a bowl bid could go out the window.
• PREGAME NOTES
-----------------------
Underdog covered last four Pitt-UConn games, winning three of four SU; Panthers won last two years, 24-21/34-10. Huskies are 3-0 at home this year vs I-A teams, upsetting West Virginia in OT last game, even though WV outgained them by 136 yards; they're 1-2 as dog this season. Pitt is 4-0-1 vs spread in last five games, winning last three by 31-20-17; they are 1-2 on road, losing at Utah/Notre Dame, winning at Syracuse. Home underdogs in Big East play are 2-1 so far this season.
-- Pittsburgh: 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS away as favorite of less than seven points versus an avenging foe... UConn HC Randy Edsall: 5-0 ATS last five as a home dog of more than three points... 17-5 ATS home when his Huskies are under .500.
*STAN'S FORECASTER – Pittsburgh by 8.5; O/U 48
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Pittsburgh -4
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Pittsburgh -6.21
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--CONNECTICUT is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game since 1992.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 22.7, OPPONENT 25.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--CONNECTICUT is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 since 1992.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 27.9, OPPONENT 19.9 - (Rating = 1*)
--CONNECTICUT is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 32.5, OPPONENT 28.8 - (Rating = 1*)
--CONNECTICUT is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 20.7, OPPONENT 19.0 - (Rating = 1*)
--PITTSBURGH is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 25.8, OPPONENT 23.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--PITTSBURGH is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road games after a 2 game home stand since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 20.0, OPPONENT 28.9 - (Rating = 1*)
--PITTSBURGH is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 26.9, OPPONENT 27.1 - (Rating = 1*)
--PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 29.9, OPPONENT 16.4 - (Rating = 1*)
--PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 26.3, OPPONENT 13.2 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--CONNECTICUT is 13-4 OVER (+8.6 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 28.1, OPPONENT 24.9 - (Rating = 1*)
--PITTSBURGH is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 24.4, OPPONENT 13.7 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--PITTSBURGH is 26-11 against the 1rst half line (+13.9 Units) versus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 13.5, OPPONENT 14.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--PITTSBURGH is 17-5 against the 1rst half line (+11.5 Units) after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 17.6, OPPONENT 10.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--PITTSBURGH is 0-7 against the 1rst half line (-7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 8.6, OPPONENT 10.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--PITTSBURGH is 1-7 against the 1rst half line (-6.7 Units) versus the first half line in all games this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 11.0, OPPONENT 9.8 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--PITTSBURGH is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) the 1rst half total after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 6.9, OPPONENT 4.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--PITTSBURGH is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) the 1rst half total in November games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 8.6, OPPONENT 6.1 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY ON - Favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (PITTSBURGH) - after beating the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games.
(26-5 since 1992.) (83.9%, +20.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 17.9, Opponent 8.7 (Average first half point differential = +9.3)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (22-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (25-5).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the first half total is 21.5 to 24.5 (PITTSBURGH) - after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in November games.
(28-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 23.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16.6, Opponent 13.6 (Total first half points scored = 30.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (37-15).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (49-24).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (CONNECTICUT) - average offensive team (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) against a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game.
(34-10 over the last 10 seasons.) (77.3%, +23 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 46
The average score in these games was: Team 17.3, Opponent 22.2 (Total points scored = 39.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19 (43.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (18-4).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (42-17).
--PLAY ON - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CONNECTICUT) - an average offensive team (21-28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7+ games, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game.
(42-13 since 1992.) (76.4%, +27.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (31-25)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 6.6
The average score in these games was: Team 27.3, Opponent 26.1 (Average point differential = +1.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 31 (55.4% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (22-8).
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*** EAST CAROLINA @ UAB (-1.5, 67) ***
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East Carolina has hit a bump in the road, but the Pirates will try to get back into the win column this Thursday night when they head to Birmingham to battle the UAB Blazers in a key Conference-USA bout. The Pirates were dismantled this past weekend by Navy, and fell to the Midshipmen 76-35. It was the second straight loss for ECU, which fell to UCF the previous week. ECU is currently one game behind UCF for the top spot in the east division, so the Pirates need to right the ship quickly if they want a chance at another league title.
UAB's rough season continued this past weekend, as the Blazers were defeated by Marshall, 31-17. It was the fourth loss in six games for UAB, which is just 2-3 in Conference-USA action. Fortunately for the Blazers they have claimed two of their three wins at home, so maybe the comfort of Legion Field can help the team climb back into the win column. The Pirates have won the last three meetings against UAB, and now own a slim 5-4 edge over the Blazers in the all-time series. The last time these two schools collided, the Pirates grabbed a convincing, 37-21 decision over UAB in Greenville.
The Pirates possess one of the more dangerous offensive units in the conference, and their 36.4 ppg ranks third among teams in the C-USA. The Pirates are churning out a respectable 122.4 ypg on the ground, but the main reason for this offense's success has been the performance of Dominique Davis. The quarterback has thrown for 2,746 yards and comes into this matchup with 26 touchdowns against just 11 interceptions.
Dwayne Harris and Lance Lewis are the two big targets for Davis, and have combined for 17 touchdowns. Harris is currently leading the team with 70 receptions and 823 yards, while Lewis has hauled in 57 passes for 637. The two players caught two touchdowns each in the team's recent loss to Navy, as Lewis led the way with 118 yards on nine catches, while Harris added 73 yards on seven receptions.
Considering both receivers had big performances, it only makes sense that Davis did as well. The quarterback for ECU did everything he could to get a win for ECU, but his 413 passing yards and five touchdown passes were not nearly enough to upend Navy. Even the ground game had success, as Jon Williams led the way with 94 of the team's 154 rushing yards. Usually when a quarterback and an offense as a whole has a performance like Davis and the Pirates did against Navy it translates into a win. However, that was definitely not the case this past weekend, as the defense for ECU was clobbered by Navy.
The Pirates were pulverized by the Midshipmen on the ground, allowing 521 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. Stopping the run is clearly not a strong suit for this unit, but at this point in the season it has become a glaring problem that has crippled ECU as a whole. Through nine games, the Pirates are surrendering 221.6 ypg and had allowed the opposition to score 26 rushing touchdowns. Taking a back seat to the troubles against the run, is the secondary, which has been embarrassed at times during the year. As it currently stands the Pirates are being torched for 235.3 ypg, and have surrendered 19 touchdowns, while recording just eight interceptions.
The Blazers do not have an explosive attack like East Carolina, but Coach Neil Callaway's crew is very balanced offensively, and their success has led to 24.4 ppg. The ground game, which is averaging 166.1 ypg, has been led by Pat Shed, who comes into this matchup with 607 rushing yards and two scores. Second on the team is quarterback David Isabelle, who has rumbled for 394 yards and four touchdowns. However, the signal caller is dealing with a hand injury and his participation in Thursday's game is questionable.
While Isabelle is dangerous with his legs, he has not done much with his arm, so that is where Bryan Ellis comes into the picture. Ellis has been mediocre on the season, completing just 55.3 percent of his throws, while tossing 14 touchdowns against nine interceptions. Ellis had a solid game this past weekend against Marshall, as the quarterback threw for 235 yards and two scores. However, he did toss an interception and finished with a completion rating less than 50.0 percent, so not all was well under center. However, Ellis did not struggle alone, as the rushing attack was bottled up for just 83 yards on 3.0 yards per attempt. Shed, who hauled in six passes for 48 yards, led the way for the Blazers on the ground as well, rumbling for 45 yards on 16 totes.
While the offense has put forth a solid effort, it has gone virtually unnoticed because the defensive play for UAB has been very poor. The Blazers have been unable to stop the run, and the secondary has also had trouble stopping the pass, and all the trouble has led to 31.3 ppg. UAB's inability to stop the pass was evident in the loss to Marshall, as the Blazers were torched for 304 yards and three touchdowns. Not all was bad for this defense however, as the Blazers were able to hold the Thundering Herd under 100 yards on the ground, but that is likely because Marshall had so much success through the air, it did not to rely on its rushing attack.
• PREGAME NOTES
-----------------------
Underdog covered six of last eight East Carolina-UAB games, with ECU winning last three by 16-4-35 points; dogs covered Pirates last four trips to UAB, where Blazers are 2-2 this year after losing to Marshall. Dogs are 6-3 vs spread in UAB games this season. East Carolina gave up 125 points in losing last two games 49-35/76-35; they're 1-3 on road, with all three losses by 14+ points (won 44-43 at Southern Miss after trailing in first quarter 20-0). Single digit home favorites are 5-4 vs spread in Sun Belt play this season. Over is 7-2 in East Carolina games this season.
*STAN'S FORECASTER – E Carolina by 2; O/U 71
*STAN'S POWER LINE - E Carolina -1.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - UAB -0.67
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--E CAROLINA is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) as a road underdog of 7 points or less since 1992.
The average score was E CAROLINA 24.8, OPPONENT 23.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--E CAROLINA is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) after allowing 31 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.
The average score was E CAROLINA 28.0, OPPONENT 28.6 - (Rating = 1*)
--E CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was E CAROLINA 36.2, OPPONENT 22.2 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--E CAROLINA is 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game since 1992.
The average score was E CAROLINA 26.4, OPPONENT 31.5 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--UAB is 11-2 against the 1rst half line (+8.8 Units) vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 34 or more points/game since 1992.
The average score was UAB 15.2, OPPONENT 12.4 - (Rating = 1*)
--E CAROLINA is 8-1 against the 1rst half line (+6.9 Units) after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was E CAROLINA 21.3, OPPONENT 13.0 - (Rating = 1*)
--E CAROLINA is 6-0 against the 1rst half line (+6.0 Units) after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was E CAROLINA 19.3, OPPONENT 12.5 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--UAB is 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) the 1rst half total off a home loss since 1992.
The average score was UAB 10.2, OPPONENT 10.3 - (Rating = 1*)
--UAB is 8-1 UNDER (+6.9 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was UAB 7.2, OPPONENT 14.1 - (Rating = 1*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY AGAINST - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (E CAROLINA) - excellent passing team (>=275 PY/game) against a poor passing defense (230-275 PY/game), after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game.
(22-3 since 1992.) (88%, +18.7 units. Rating = 5*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (21-6)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.1
The average score in these games was: Team 32.8, Opponent 21.7 (Average point differential = +11.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 15 (55.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (1-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (17-3).
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (E CAROLINA) - in a game involving two good rushing teams (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) after 7+ games.
(32-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (80%, +23.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 65.7
The average score in these games was: Team 39.8, Opponent 39.8 (Total points scored = 79.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 30 (75% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (24-8).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (32-8).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the first half total is 32 to 35 (UAB) - in a game involving two average passing teams (6.4-7.5 PYA), in conference games.
(38-10 over the last 10 seasons.) (79.2%, +27 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 32.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.5, Opponent 13.5 (Total first half points scored = 27)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (26-6).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (40-12).
--PLAY ON - Any team (E CAROLINA) - an excellent offensive team (>=34 PPG) against a poor defensive team (28-34 PPG) after 7+ games, after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games.
(40-13 since 1992.) (75.5%, +25.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 11.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 27.8, Opponent 9 (Average first half point differential = +18.8)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-6).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (30-11).
