Vegas Spread Debate.

[G-Man!]

Rather than constantly shitting in my threads by DocHolliday, I decided to explain the argument in a stand-alone thread.

We all know what happened to MistaFlavas threads with Big Lou constantly bashing Flava's play logic for no reason.
So, let's do this right. When its done - you decide who is right. I'll use facts and not assumptions from my information that I found to be true over the course of 5 decades of research that was available starting back then, to today..

A couple weeks ago I made my opinion on how Vegas makes the spread and how they make more money on the losers than the winners..
Its based from Betting History and historical betting statistics along with current public perception and conditioning over decades.

That started a argument based on my remark about betting both sides of the Browns/Raiders game.

Then one person here -Doc- became the counterpart on Vegas, based solely on my record and the way I posted games. Claiming, thats how Vegas makes money - is by the way I lose my bets.

More astounding is that - he believes that Vegas is only worried about Sharps - and what they do - and thats how they are able to balance the betting action and dollars and make only the "juice" on games, without any risk of losing money -all of which is false and part of the conditioning process with historical data Vegas has.. This is where my point is validated.

I know he can't prove that the "juice" and stupid bets - is all there is for Vegas to make money - but Im going to do this so everyone knows what I researched is fact and true.
It will also make sense if you understand a few special things involved.
One true factor is the spread and how its made... Then, it will validate why, all by itself.

This will take some time. I wont be here for hours on end doing this, due to my time-restrictions, but I will explain all that is there in the research.
I will make my main points, then elaborate from responses and questions.

1. The spread is solely made from "conditioned" public opinions, perceptions and betting habits.

2. The habits are based on historical data statistics over decades.

3. The spread is calculated from "historical unbalanced action", on perceived winners and against losers combined with Current betting data to date.

4. Public Conditioning over decades is what has proven over time to be the advantage Vegas has. It allows them to set the line in their favor over and over on many games.

5. Its THEIR LINE, you have to decide what side you want to bet on.


These are some of the points.
Everyone is welcome to comment with their own thoughts.

 

[exploited17]

Well, I am not Mr Vegas but all I can offer is an opinion
In reality they want even action for a guaranteed profit
But it is hard to get that
Seems they put lines for favorites they believe will be bet as high as they can without what they believe will get lopsideded action
People tend to bet the best teams or perceived best teams/favorites
That I believe is the approach

I always thought they could lay the action off to getclose to equal action if there is not equal action
But someone told me that is illegal Not sure if that is true

 

[ctgiant]

Shouldn't this shit be in a different forum? Maybe the Sportsbook industry forum?
'

 

[5teamparlay]

^^This might work on a Macro level.
On a micro/local level I could see another outcome.

 

[DocHolliday]

I'll say this:

the ONLY reason why i even said anything is because you spent the better part of a day, posting in your own and multiple other threads telling EVERYONE that the Raiders/Brown game would NEVER end up a 3 point game. That vegas would not allow it because they would lose too much money.

^^^^^ That is exactly what happened

When I brought up points, you acted like a 1st class A$$hole... so then and ONLY then did i look up your record--- which again i'll post here for everyone to know---

in CFB and NFL--- the G-Man is down about 5000 bucks for a 100 bettor (50 units), a dime bettor would be down over 50 grand. So of course we have to consider our source when posts like this are made.

Finally... and I'll stand by this:

No one that makes money sports betting bets the way you do. Sharps/Pros/Successful Gamblers do not bet an entire board of NFL games and 20 plus games on a CFB weekend.

It is FACTS, not BS you post, but FACTS that vegas has a substantial advantage on ML bets in Football and Basketball. You bet them all the time. Its also facts that vegas it is a losing proposition to buy points period. If it was a winning proposition, why would vegas allow you to do it... yet you do this ALL the time too.

It's all I'll post on this thread. Anyone that thinks this guy knows anything about vegas and how it works, then so be it. But i'll say again someone that knows so much, should certainly make money, not lose it, and anyone can spend about 30 mins look up your post history and see.... you dont win.

 

[MotorCityMadman]

Doc everything you said is true. Nobody makes money betting 20 games a week. Ordinary Joe has no idea how sports betting odds are figured. I know for a fact I was a bookmaker for over 25 years. Buying points is the dumbest thing yet but the best for the books. For all of you who disagree keep a separate record of buying points and tell me how much you lost in a years time.

 

[Michelangelo]

My long time betting opinion is that buying points is always folly.
Having said that I would never tell another man how to bet his money.
I'll let you guys discuss any other points made.
Oh yea, I don't believe in criticizing how or why a man bets. Their money, their outcome.

 

[G-Man!]

Doc everything you said is true. Nobody makes money betting 20 games a week. Ordinary Joe has no idea how sports betting odds are figured. I know for a fact I was a bookmaker for over 25 years. Buying points is the dumbest thing yet but the best for the books. For all of you who disagree keep a separate record of buying points and tell me how much you lost in a years time.

Not True. I bet over 20 Bowl games this past week and went 23-9. What killed most Pro and College bettors this season - and last - was so many games were Covid losers, without knowing which players were out. Two Bowl Games I missed were also losers. The others were mostly healthy games. or at least knowing who was pulling out for NFL draft etc.

 

[DocHolliday]

Not True. I bet over 20 Bowl games this past week and went 23-9. What killed most Pro and College bettors this season - and last - was so many games were Covid losers, without knowing which players were out. Two Bowl Games I missed were also losers. The others were mostly healthy games. or at least knowing who was pulling out for NFL draft etc.

Its Very true.

You again have done this for 15-18 weeks this season. You've lost way more than youve won. He didnt say you'd never win once ina while, nor did I, but long term its a losing propostion. Again you can look at your track record, compared to say someone like Lewis who plays 3-4 games a week.

Or can look at your NFL bets this week.

14-15 bets--- 100 bettor down about what 750

You are very quick to point out things that go well, and deflect when you dont. Prime examples:
1) You kept up with record in both CFB and NFL until it became a losing record
2) You count ML losses as only 1 loss-- even though again like this week in the NFL sometimes as high as -350
3) You started a new bowl season thread because it was a good one, even included the army/navy non bowl in there so you could embeliish the bowl record a little-- mind you you are STILL WAY BEHIND and a LOSING player in CFB this season.
4) look no farther than this week, got your ass handed to you, and started a new thread for the MNF game

Anyone can get hot for a small period of time. Vegas is in it for the long haul.... but again you know it all.

 

[G-Man!]

I do post Monday nigh games most of the time all by itself. Mostly because I do write-ups that weren't in the other posts .
You continue post my record and thats fine but its got nothing to do with the spointspread conversation. Im correct on that my research showed over 50 years of data.
You have no data - and just what the common gambler is conditioned to believing. Thats your choice.
Again you dont post plays but I tell you what here in this thread.
I'll challenge you on the NFL playoffs and the final bowl college games.
You post your picks here and Ill apply my historical point spread data research and make my plays.
Who knows - maybe Ill win back my 5K you calculated and break even or make a profit. I usually play larger units on bowls and playoffs. The games become more predictable when players arent out from Covid.

In case you didnt know it You wont care) I won two years here in baseball. Last year I was blown out by covid. At one point I was down 20k but recovered a bunch and got the losses down to half and stopped playing because I couldn't get an advantage with all the Covid stuff. I still tried in football and struggled.

But WhenI know what is going on with players out then I have the advantages that I wouldn't have with Covid playing into it.
Bowls provided me with better current info with time daily, to gather the data.

By the way. Do you think the bettors who bet Pittsburgh last week at +3 are smart enough today to bet Cleveland at +3.

 

[DocHolliday]

Thats actually the first post you've made where it seemed like you were open to the fact there was another side to the argument.

That said: if you think you know how vegas works so be it, like i said a week ago, nothing anyone says on a message board is going to change your mind, so its pointless to have a debate about it. Plus with vegas there is so much stuff that cant be proven, found, etc, it again makes it pointless to discuss

However:

I will say the way you bet, you cant win long term. Youve played practically the ENTIRE BOARD on and NFL week before. Think i saw one week where you played nearly 30 college football games.

It is a fact that buying points is a long term losing play. It is a fact that vegas has a HUGE edge on ML bets in BKB and FB. For someone that claims to know so much and be a 5 decade long winner to make rookie mistakes such as these ROUTINELY raises quite a few alarm bells. Again time to time I get it. But you played 4-5 big ML in the NFL this week alone.

Combine these mistakes ^^^^ with your posted record--- and I'll let people draw there own conclusions

ALL THAT SAID:
I've said and will continue to say. I have zero problems with your picks. Play them as you choose. I've said too there have been times we see the games the same.

As far as the games tonight: Wouldnt bet it with your money. Have no clue why anyone would. Too many unknowns. If you bet tonights game you are just an action junkie OR you know something no one else knows. Bens last game, Pitt hasnt lost at home on MNF since 1991, Clev is 1-9 ATS against divsion opponents. Does cleveland even care. Although cleveland looks like the better team. Even the most arrogant of cappers can say this one is a tough one.

There is always another game..... I prefer to not bet the entire board.... i prefer to bet games without all these questions....guess thats a big difference in you and me amongst many other things.

 

[G-Man!]

As far as the games tonight: Wouldnt bet it with your money. Have no clue why anyone would. Too many unknowns. If you bet tonights game you are just an action junkie OR you know something no one else knows. Bens last game, Pitt hasnt lost at home on MNF since 1991, Clev is 1-9 ATS against divsion opponents. Does cleveland even care. Although cleveland looks like the better team. Even the most arrogant of cappers can say this one is a tough one.

Yes I know something that you dont. You are the conditioned gambler. Its verified by the assumption that Cleveland doesnt care? too many unknowns? List the one's you think matter?
LOL what Unknowns?


Spread records are useless. Division? LOL./ thats what Vegas does they make money all that all the time by gamblers thinking that the ats record will apply to any or every game. Its never relevant to the game that day. Only the players who are playing in todays game matter.
Arrogant cappers? is that you? Im not.

This game is no tougher than it was last Monday. If Cincy lost yesterday would everyone be on Cleveland tonight? Or would the line go up from-3 when it opened?
C'Mon man.
This is exactly what bettors do - they play with assumptions and emotions and get sucked in by trends and ats junk. Spreads only are relevant if both teams are playing with all the same players.
Not one player has been removed from the list since last Tiuesday yet the line moved 6 points!
You are the common conditioned gambler just by saying that...

Pitt on Monday nights, played almost all those games with a great defense and a solid running game. Both have vanished from this team in the last 2 years.

 

[Justin2018]

Why make this so tuff? G-Man, what’s your won/loss percentage for Monday Night? If you under 50%. I’ll take Pittsburgh and if you Better then 50%. I go with you and take Cleveland then I’ll pray pray

 

[G-Man!]

Im 100 percent when Im right.

 

[DocHolliday]

You keep calling me a condition gambler? You know nothing about me, the games I play, or how i play them. How am I a conditioned gambler?

I simply said PERIOD-- I wouldnt play the game. There are other games I know where I know the teams/conditions/etc better that I prefer to bet my money on. There are way too many unknowns for ME to play the game.

Again I dont play an ENTIRE BOARD of games like you do.


I dont get it... how does NOT betting a game I dont know enough information about make me a conditioned bettor?

Youve admitted (more or less) that you've lost money because you couldnt find out the information you claim caused you to lose.

 

[Justin2018]

Justin’s a dumb guy here. G-man and Doc super sharp handicapper. Okay, since im dumb… i’ll nobet..im going be a bookie. I take 5% juices only.

G-man bet $1000 Cleveland
Doc bet $1000 Pittsburgh

loser sent me $50 after the game ok…lol

 

[DocHolliday]

Im 100 percent when Im right.

Obviously you have a very strong feeling for tonights games. I guess this is one of the games I guess vegas has everyone but you suckered in. Just hope for your sake it doesnt end up like the Minnesota game or the Cowboy game yesterday.

Or for that matter...like the majority of the games you've bet this football season this year

Best of luck. I (the so called conditioned gambler) wont be playing it.

 

[Justin2018]

Doc, i like Pittsburgh man….

 

[MotorCityMadman]

Not True. I bet over 20 Bowl games this past week and went 23-9. What killed most Pro and College bettors this season - and last - was so many games were Covid losers, without knowing which players were out. Two Bowl Games I missed were also losers. The others were mostly healthy games. or at least knowing who was pulling out for NFL draft etc.

Typical gambler response. You only remember and point out when you win. What about the other 51 weeks? Did you 23-9 for 51 weeks? The juice alone makes it almost impossible for you to win over a year times. I will give you one thing everyone gets lucky in the short run, but in the long run you will come back to the means. The juice will kill you on that amount of games. Sit down and figure it up at 20 games a week, 1040 games a year.

 

[azbob]

Going back to the first post, there is an easy way to break this down that hasn't changed for 40 years. Vegas sets the line to get balanced action and the books make most of their money (percentage wise, on specialty bets primarily parlays.