UnderSiege Picks

[WoodStool]

Will have to agree to disagree.

I can point to a positive ROI in 2018 MLB (games, series, playoffs), 2018 NFL (regular season and playoffs combined), 2018 CFB, 2018-19 NBA regular season, 2018-19 CBB regular season . Only losing "season" I've had on this site was this year's March Madness, and that was more than offset by my regular season.

I probably had one of the most successful baseball seasons at the RX last season, and by far the best playoffs. I am actually betting a lot more chalk this year than last year so far (32% of bets at worse than EVEN odds). Hitting RL's and alternate lines are how you win at baseball. Your buddy stock07 even said on this site that I came out on top on baseball last year, and that no one could argue it -- and that was before my insane run in the playoffs.

I believe my strategy will pay off long term and that I will get out of the slump and end up in the black yet again. I was down a few grand last year at this time, so I have faith things will turn around. You only have to win about 3 out of every 7 wagers to be profitable if you flat bet at these prices. Doubling down on certain teams absolutely works in this sport. Last year was a perfect example of this -- look at how much I profited off of Boston and Oakland alone. I will pound certain teams hard this year again.


I generally struggle early on in seasons across all sports because PWP modeling isn't as accurate with smaller sample sizes of data. It's hard to determine an optimal exponent factor to use in data modeling with such little data, as the SSR line that you produce will be roughly even at this time of year for several different exponents. I think as the season , you'll see the difference in SSR spread out to the point where you can focus in on one exponent and plug away with that one. You can look at 2018 MLB as an example, as well as this year's NBA and CBB threads. I was 52-26 in my final 78 plays after a dreadful start....more available data generally makes for better PWP modeling and analysis.

All I really need to see is one thing and one thing alone...when you are winning you stay consistent on your unit size wagers and will occasionally deviate to a larger wager when you especially like a game, when you are losing like you are doing now, the cards get larger and the unit sizes go up exponentially after each losing day.

I don't doubt what you said about your previous seasons, I am sure it is documented, but this still isn't a large sample size to prove you are a good capper. Its a little over 2 weeks into the season and in your own words you are already "chase chase chase"...Ask yourself this very simple question....would you be betting 4 units on all these alt run lines if you were ahead right now? To me you seem like a dime a dozen capper. Maybe I am wrong, wouldn't be the first time, but in my defense I tend to be correct more often.

 

[WoodStool]

Will have to agree to disagree.

I can point to a positive ROI in 2018 MLB (games, series, playoffs), 2018 NFL (regular season and playoffs combined), 2018 CFB, 2018-19 NBA regular season, 2018-19 CBB regular season . Only losing "season" I've had on this site was this year's March Madness, and that was more than offset by my regular season.

I probably had one of the most successful baseball seasons at the RX last season, and by far the best playoffs. I am actually betting a lot more chalk this year than last year so far (32% of bets at worse than EVEN odds). Hitting RL's and alternate lines are how you win at baseball. Your buddy stock07 even said on this site that I came out on top on baseball last year, and that no one could argue it -- and that was before my insane run in the playoffs.

I believe my strategy will pay off long term and that I will get out of the slump and end up in the black yet again. I was down a few grand last year at this time, so I have faith things will turn around. You only have to win about 3 out of every 7 wagers to be profitable if you flat bet at these prices. Doubling down on certain teams absolutely works in this sport. Last year was a perfect example of this -- look at how much I profited off of Boston and Oakland alone. I will pound certain teams hard this year again.


I generally struggle early on in seasons across all sports because PWP modeling isn't as accurate with smaller sample sizes of data. It's hard to determine an optimal exponent factor to use in data modeling with such little data, as the SSR line that you produce will be roughly even at this time of year for several different exponents. I think as the season , you'll see the difference in SSR spread out to the point where you can focus in on one exponent and plug away with that one. You can look at 2018 MLB as an example, as well as this year's NBA and CBB threads. I was 52-26 in my final 78 plays after a dreadful start....more available data generally makes for better PWP modeling and analysis.

With that all said, at lest you explained yourself in a calm and scientific manner. Wish you could actually stay like this and we could share insights. But I am sure it will get back too..."hey look what he said about BAS I can't believe this" then a week later "hey look what he said about BAS I can't believe this" then a week later "hey look.....well you get the point. Good try though, maybe one of this times someone will pick up on it, as every week you try to pretend its new news to you...haha.

Very simply though avoid the chasing, if you're only making larger wagers simply because you are losing, one of these seasons you will bury yourself and all those other years will be for nothing...I know you know this, but it's still good to be reminded of it by someone other than yourself.

 

[UnderSiege]

Get the fuck out of here asshole go make some more false claims and run from legitimate challenges. If you say you like a team by double digits then you put your money where your mouth is. My thread is not for pussy footing around.

Of course you want people to forget all the shitty things you said about BAS. Fuck you, not on my watch.

 

[UnderSiege]

You really want to stop being reminded of the shitty things you're guilty of? Stay out of my thread and keep your mouth shut, you hear me?

 

[BigLouReturns]

DD - what is your posted record here at the Rx?

 

[wilbur]

DD - what is your posted record here at the Rx?

He makes Lang look good!

 

[BigLouReturns]

He makes Lang look good!

Interesting that the self-proclaimed "goat" won't post his record.

 

[UnderSiege]

Interesting that the self-proclaimed "goat" won't post his record.

You wanna see my record? Accept my challenge and enter the super contest... then you'll get to see my record. You've been talking shit on my skillset for months, yet you cant prove you're better. Why are you here?

 

[WoodStool]

You wanna see my record? Accept my challenge and enter the super contest... then you'll get to see my record. You've been talking shit on my skillset for months, yet you cant prove you're better. Why are you here?

Well I see you stayed calm for all of 3 min...back to this bullshit. U are down over 6k in ncaa basketball alone. Are u saying Lou is down 7k?

 

[Acebb]

Another -6.6 unit day taking the same teams 3 days in a row and on alternate run lines.

Down over 40 units (of magical monopoly money) but my model is going to turn it around because.....SSR!!!!

ointer:

 

[UnderSiege]

Looks like my crew hammered the Lightning series price over night. In 24 hours it's gone from -175 to -275... oh well, I'm gonna get paid 3,500 when they advance anyways so I'm glad my followers got in while the value was THROUGH THE FUCKING ROOF, like I said. Hope you all enjoy this gift from the GOAT - time to make it rain on these pussy ass haters.

 

[kywildcats1212]

Another -6.6 unit day taking the same teams 3 days in a row and on alternate run lines.

Down over 40 units (of magical monopoly money) but my model is going to turn it around because.....SSR!!!!

ointer:

Plus the series thread -5.6 units

 

[stock07]

Another -6.6 unit day taking the same teams 3 days in a row and on alternate run lines.

Down over 40 units (of magical monopoly money) but my model is going to turn it around because.....SSR!!!!

ointer:

Absolutely this sam guy is a mental train wreck. Down almost 50units so far this year and he claims to be a "dime" bettor. Yea ok.

Every persona/username he has here is getting absolutely destroyed.

This reminds me so much of the whole pennywise/incubus situation. That guy was a mental train wreck as well. This is the same kind of situation. Guy wanted to be a tout too.

 

[Mobdeeper7239]

Looks like my crew hammered the Lightning series price over night. In 24 hours it's gone from -175 to -275... oh well, I'm gonna get paid 3,500 when they advance anyways so I'm glad my followers got in while the value was THROUGH THE FUCKING ROOF, like I said. Hope you all enjoy this gift from the GOAT - time to make it rain on these pussy ass haters.

”the crew” ointer:


Same exact play James Holtzhauer gave out on Jeopardy the other day. Hmmmm


Are they riding with you or him? Lol. Or are you riding with him? Need a winner?

 

[UnderSiege]

Lol jeopardy? What the fuck are you talking about? I dont watch pussy shit like jeopardy.

 

[Avocado33]

With that all said, at lest you explained yourself in a calm and scientific manner. Wish you could actually stay like this and we could share insights. But I am sure it will get back too..."hey look what he said about BAS I can't believe this" then a week later "hey look what he said about BAS I can't believe this" then a week later "hey look.....well you get the point. Good try though, maybe one of this times someone will pick up on it, as every week you try to pretend its new news to you...haha.

Very simply though avoid the chasing, if you're only making larger wagers simply because you are losing, one of these seasons you will bury yourself and all those other years will be for nothing...I know you know this, but it's still good to be reminded of it by someone other than yourself.

I generally think it's smart to slightly increase the risk of your wagers after a cold front. I get what you're saying, but this has absolutely paid off for me generally. Of course it can blow up and cause a greater deficit (like it is now in my case), but overall I will probably get out of this slump with a big day or two. If you're not willing to go through a rough patch, then you shouldn't be gambling in my opinion. Maybe a phrase like "chase chase chase" isn't right to post and an overstatement of what I'm doing; I don't think what I'm doing is full-out chasing, but I do tend to gradually increase risk amount after cold streaks like the one I'm going through.

Sure, it's nicer to discuss things in a scientific manners. With that said, have you brought much to the table in that regard? I'm not trying to be an argumentative asshole; I'm just genuinely asking. It seems like you're more occupied with accusing me of being Undersiege and saying weird made up shit like I work at Panda Express, saying that I'm betting $1,000 units (where the fuck did that come from? you think I'm throwing $4,000 on a single regular season MLB play? lol).

I find these things comical obviously, but that's where the low-quality, non-scientific dialogue comes from. When that shit happens, you're opening up the door for push-back stuff (the BAS thing). If you just keep your mouth shut about the retarded shit and stop feeding guys like Mob, stock, etc, then betting talk is actually possible.

 

[stock07]

^There is the full blown sam tilt. Got him seriously triggered here now boys!

Explain it away with that "smartest guy in the room" stuff all you want.

You are a pathological lier sam, that's it. Case closed.

You have been exposed here and your plan to be a tout backfired.

The only people that believe you are the other voices in your head(siege and damion).

 

[UnderSiege]

The only people that believe you are the other voices in your head(siege and damion).

Fuck off already with this repetitive bullshit. Dont you remember when the head moderator came in here and confirmed Sam and I aren't the same person? He dropped that nugget right before he bitch slapped you for being a worthless troll.

 

[BigLouReturns]

You wanna see my record? Accept my challenge and enter the super contest... then you'll get to see my record. You've been talking shit on my skillset for months, yet you cant prove you're better. Why are you here?

You wanna talk shit you're going to get called out for it. What's your record self-proclaimed goat?

 

[stock07]

Fuck off already with this repetitive bullshit. Dont you remember when the head moderator came in here and confirmed Sam and I aren't the same person? He dropped that nugget right before he bitch slapped you for being a worthless troll.

Repetitive? I think you have come back with this same dumb fuck response about 100 times in this thread.

I have an idea how about BAS come back in here and explain this then...

*Per TheRX they have 3 rules posted for the rubber room. Yes only 3.

-No hardcore porn
-No nude images of children
-No out of line RACIST comments.

You sam have made numerous RACIST comments just in this thread alone.(Been called out by another mod Hache in others for racist comments and pictures). So how about BAS the great super mod come in an explain why it is ok for you to break a rule THEY posted?? He can come in here or post all the stupid comments he wants about me following GB blah blah blah that don't mean shit and he is just sour. But I would love for him to come in here and defend your racist comments and pictures.

Stop fucking hiding behind BAS telling us we are crazy for calling you clowns out. That don't mean shit and is breaking zero rules here in the RR.