UFC on Fox 21 - Betting Info - Saturday 8/27

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC on FOX 21 pre-fight facts:




Main event


Maia is 8-2 since he dropped to the UFC welterweight division in July 2012.

Maia’s five-fight UFC winning streak in welterweight competition is the second longest active streak in the division behind Stephen Thompson (seven).

Maia’s 17 victories in UFC competition are fifth most in history behind Georges St-Pierre (19), Michael Bisping (19), Matt Hughes (18) and Donald Cerrone (18).

Maia’s eight submission victories in UFC competition are tied for third most in history behind Royce Gracie (10) and Nate Diaz (nine).

Maia is 17-2 in UFC bouts in which he lands at least one takedown. He’s completed at least one takedown against 19 of his 23 UFC opponents.

Maia’s 55 takedowns landed in UFC competition are eighth most in history.

Maia completed just two of 22 takedown attempts in his unanimous-decision loss to Rory MacDonald at UFC 170. Those 22 takedown attempts were the most ever in a single UFC welterweight bout.

Maia has absorbed just 12 total significant strikes in his past three UFC appearances.



Condit has alternated wins and losses over his past five UFC appearances. He was defeated in his most recent bout.

Condit has earned 28 of his 30 career victories by stoppage. He’s earned five of his seven UFC victories by knockout.

Condit’s 10 stoppage victories in UFC/WEC welterweight competition are the third most in combined divisional history behind Hughes (11) and Matt Brown (11).

Condit’s 176 significant strikes landed against Robbie Lawler at UFC 195 marked the second most in UFC title-fight history behind Joanna Jedrzejczyk’s 220 at UFC 193.

Condit is one of three welterweights in UFC history to land 100 or more significant strikes in three separate bouts. St-Pierre and Chris Lytle have also accomplished the feat.

Condit is one of 17 fighters in UFC history to earn a knockout victory stemming from a flying knee. He accomplished the feat against Dong Hyun Kim at UFC 132.

Condit has been taken down at least once in 14 of his 17 UFC/WEC appearances. He’s given up a total of 51 takedowns in that stretch. He’s 2-1 in UFC fights in which he hasn’t given up a takedown.

Condit has received 10 fight-night bonuses for UFC/WEC welterweight bouts, tied with Lytle for most in combined divisional history.



Co-main event


Anthony Pettis (18-5 MMA, 5-4 UFC) enters the event on a career-worst three-fight losing skid. He hasn’t earned a victory since December 2014.

Pettis makes his UFC featherweight debut after competing his entire career at lightweight and winning UFC and WEC championships in the weight class.

Pettis is the only fighter in UFC history to win consecutive UFC lightweight title fights by submission.

Pettis’ three knockout victories in UFC/WEC competition stemming from a kick to the head or body are tied for fourth most in combined promotional history behind Cerrone (five), Vitor Belfort (four) and Edson Barboza (four).



Charles Oliveira (21-5 MMA, 9-5 UFC) is 7-3 since he dropped to the UFC featherweight division in January 2012.

Oliveira has earned eight of his nine UFC victories by submission.

Oliveira’s eight submission victories in UFC competition are tied with Maia and Frank Mir for third most in company history behind Gracie (10) and Diaz (nine).

Oliveira’s six submission victories in UFC featherweight competition are the most in divisional history.

Oliveira’s six stoppage victories in UFC featherweight competition are tied for most in divisional history behind Conor McGregor (six) and Max Holloway (six).

Oliveira is one of two fighters in UFC history to start his career by winning with six different submission techniques. Ken Shamrock also accomplished the feat.

Oliveira is the only fighter in UFC history to earn a calf-slicer submission victory. He accomplished the feat against Eric Wisely at UFC on FOX 2.

Oliveira lands 52.2 percent of his significant strike attempts in UFC featherweight competition, the second highest rate among active fighters in the weight class behind Jimy Hettes (57.3 percent).

Oliveira has earned nine fight-night bonuses in his UFC career. His six fight-night bonuses for UFC featherweight bouts are tied with McGregor for most in divisional history.




Remaining main card


Paige VanZant (6-2 MMA, 3-1 UFC) returns to competition for the first time since Dec. 10, 2015. The 261-day layoff is the longest of her more than four-year career.

VanZant makes her fifth UFC strawweight appearance, tied for second most in divisional history behind champion Jedrzejczyk (six).

VanZant earned the first stoppage victory in UFC strawweight history with her knockout of Kailin Curran at UFC Fight Night 57.



Bec Rawlings’ (7-4 MMA, 2-1 UFC) two-fight UFC winning streak in women’s strawweight competition is tied for the third longest active streak in the division behind Jedrzejczyk (six) and Karolina Kowalkiewicz (three).



Jim Miller (26-8 MMA, 15-7 UFC) competes in his 24th UFC lightweight bout, the second most appearances in divisional history behind Gleison Tibau (26)

Miller’s 15 victories in UFC lightweight competition are tied for second most in divisional history behind Tibau (16).

Miller’s nine stoppage victories in UFC lightweight competition are tied for second most in divisional history behind Joe Lauzon (12).

Miller’s six submission victories in UFC lightweight competition are tied for third most in divisional history behind Lauzon (seven) and Diaz (seven).

Miller’s 35 submission attempts in UFC competition are the most in company history.



Joe Lauzon (26-11 MMA, 13-8 UFC) competes in his 22nd UFC lightweight bout, the third most appearances in divisional history.

Lauzon has earned 25 of his 26 career victories by stoppage. He’s recorded 18 of those finishes by submission.

Lauzon’s 12 stoppage victories in UFC lightweight competition are the most in divisional history.

Lauzon’s seven submission victories in UFC lightweight competition are tied with Diaz for the most in divisional history.

Lauzon’s 26 submission attempts in UFC competition are third most in company history behind Miller (35) and Lytle (31).

Lauzon has been awarded 14 fight-night bonuses during his UFC career, the second most in company history behind Diaz (15). UFC/WEC vet Cerrone holds the all-time combined promotional record with 18 total bonuses.

Lauzon and Miller’s 46 combined UFC appearances are a single-fight record for most total bouts between two opponents in a matchup.




Preliminary card


Sam Alvey (27-8 MMA, 4-3 UFC) makes his third UFC appearance in a 70-day span. He also competed at UFC Fight Night 91 in July and UFC Fight Night 89 in June.

Alvey has earned all four of his UFC victories by first-round stoppage.

Alvey’s four stoppage victories since 2014 in UFC middleweight competition are tied for second most behind Luke Rockhold (five).



Kevin Casey’s (9-4-1 MMA, 1-2-1 UFC) two no-contest results in UFC competition are tied with Thiago Silva and Matt Riddle for the most in company history.



Chad Laprise (10-2 MMA, 3-2 UFC) enters the event with back-to-back losses after starting his career on a 10-fight winning streak.



Adam Hunter (7-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) has earned all eight of his career victories by stoppage. He’s earned all but one of those finishes in the first round.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Demian Maia has only been hit with 12 total significant strikes in his past 3 fights going into UFC on FOX 21.


Carlos Condit landed nearly three times that amount in the first round of his last fight against Robbie Lawler.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC Vancouver Predictions:


Daniel Cormier - Condit

Kenny Florian - Maia

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Current Numbers ...




Alex Ricci +135
Jeremy Kennedy -155

Ryan Janes +140
Adam Hunter -160

Thibault Gouti +250
Chad Laprise -300

Shane Campbell -125
Felipe Silva +105

Alessio Di Chirico -225
Garreth McLellan +185

Kyle Bochniak -170
Enrique Barzola +150

Kevin Casey +185
Sam Alvey -225

Joe Lauzon -145
Jim Miller +125

Bec Rawlings +175
Paige VanZant -210

Charles Oliveira +160
Anthony Pettis -185

Demian Maia +100
Carlos Condit -120

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Demian Maia (23-6)


Staple info:
•Height: 6’0″ Age: 38 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 72″
•Last Fight: Submission win / Matt Brown
•Camp: Demian Maia BJJ (Brazil)
•Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Excellent


Supplemental info:
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 2x BJJ World Champion
+ 2007 ADCC Winner
+ 11 Submission wins
+ 10 first round finishes
+ 17-2 w/at least 1 takedown scored
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Solid hips, under-hooks, & takedowns
+ Crafty leg dexterity
^ Uses to pass guard/complete passes
+ Superb top game/control
^ 84 passes in 23 fights
+ Steady & smooth transitions to submissions
^ Actively looks for backs
+ Improved striking
^ Underrated left hand
+ Deceptively strong inside the clinch
– Propensity to fade late
^ Gas tank bares watching



Carlos Condit (30-9)


Staple info:
•Height: 6’1″ Age: 32 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 76″
•Last Fight: Decision loss / Robbie Lawler (1-2-16)
•Camp: Jackson-Wink MMA (New Mexico)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
•Risk Management: Moderate


Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC Interim Champion
+ WEC Welterweight Title
+ 15 KO victories
+ 13 Submission wins
+ 21 first round finishes
+ Consistent pace & pressure
^ Well conditioned & strikes w/volume
+ Diverse kicking attacks
+ Dangerous knees & elbows
+ Improved boxing & head movement
^ Utilizes unique angles
+ Steadily improved wrestling
– Traditionally struggles defending takedowns
^ 40% Takedown defense
+ Good guard retention/get-up urgency
+ Active from the bottom
^ Constantly attempts sweeps & sub attempts
+/-Sometimes starts slow
^ Steadily comes strong



Summary:

The main event on FOX is a classic styles match as two of the division’s most respected competitors in Demain Maia and Carlos Condit collide. Mentioning the possibility of retirement following his fight-of-the-year candidate with Robbie Lawler last January, the Natural Born Killer has apparently rethought his stance as he now meets Demian Maia. Arguably the division’s top contender next to Stephen Thompson, Maia will look to cement his case by extending his five-fight winning streak against a dangerous fan-favorite and perennial Top-5 fighter.

Although this fight has much more depth than your typical “striker versus grappler” matchup, Carlos Condit has the clear advantages on paper for however long this contest remains on the feet. Although the New Mexican native may not lean heavily on his in patent kicking diversities, his renown knees, and elbows will undoubtedly be at play. More importantly, I feel the improvements within Condit’s boxing and footwork(which I suspect is in thanks to Brandon Gibson) will be crucial in keeping him a threat standing. Despite Demian not likely exchanging with Condit(as this has been his trend since dropping to welterweight), the Brazilian has some legitimate striking tools that could serve him well in this fight.

Even though Carlos has made excellent improvements in his offensive head movement, his head still tends to go upright upon retreat as he slightly leans to his right side. This tendency has traditionally made Carlos more open to left hands as opposed to anything else. With Maia’s straight left being his most effective strike, expect the Brazilian to look for this on the feet when aiming to get Condit’s attention or respect. Aside from that, let us not get too hung up in the striking realm as this fight will likely be decided by the grappling exchanges. With that in mind, it can be easy to see this as a trap fight for Carlos as wrestling pressure has seemingly been the common culprit in most of his defeats.

When you consider that Maia is 17-2 in the UFC when able to score a minimum of just 1-takedown, it is hard not to see a path for the Brazilian to take against Condit. However, numbers do not always tell the story in our sport as there are multiple takeaways here. Although 84-passes in 23-fights looks impressive, it could also suggest that Maia can dominate from bell-to-bell within his own realm and still not produce a finish. Now that is no critique on Demian, as his style secures him rounds and is exciting for grappling fans such as myself to watch. That said, Maia’s style of grueling but steady pressure has gotten him into trouble late in fights where he could not find the finish.

Although those trends may be troubling, you cannot deny the mastery in which Maia operates. Most impressive are the evolutions of his wrestling, as Demian has found a style that melds his MMA and Jiu-jitsu game into one solid sword. Not only does Demian wield an improved reactive shot that serves him well against aggressive strikers, but it is his ability to produce results against the cage that will likely come to light in this fight. Deceptively strong inside the clinch, Maia demonstrates an excellent use of under-hooks and a preternatural ability to keep his hips in close. What is most fun to watch is the slick leg dexterity in which Demian utilizes to finish his takedowns, as his background in Judo and Karate show themselves in these spaces of sweeps & trips.

Despite Condit’s quiet improvements to his takedown defense under grappling guru Ricky Lundell, I do not doubt that Maia will be successful in getting this fight to the floor on multiple occasions. That said, it is the skill sets & knowledge that a coach like Ricky Lundell can bring to Carlos that are so valuable, as we have seen steady improvements in their subsequent camps together. Often compared to Maia’s previous opponent in Matt Brown, Carlos conducts himself in an aggressive manner from the bottom, as he falls back on his breakneck pace to eventually win out fights should his submissions fail. That said, I feel Condit offers a much more technical and diverse game than Brown(which is no slight on Brown), as I feel Carlos’ guard-game may be a crucial stifling point in this fight.

Like many long framed grapplers, Condit poses the problems you would expect from the bottom, whether it is high-guard options or the angles in which he can get leverage on his submission attempts. However, it is the intricacies of Carlos’ guard game that will at the very least give Demian a different look than he has been accustom to in the UFC. Not just using his long legs to climb into attack positions from the guard, Condit is one of the few guard players north of the UFC’s lightweight division, who maintains persistent efforts in hip elevation and debasing his opposition. Preferring to operate out of a guard variation known as K-control, Carlos will under-hook his opponent’s leg as he looks to slide his shin across the belly and up into the chest of his opposition. This combination allows Condit to compromise the base of his opponent while opening up offense on his terms. Assisting this effort is Carlos’ free hand, in which he will either use to throw strategic strikes(in a baiting effort) or help win the defensive/offensive grip battles.

From here, Condit has a multitude of submission threats from triangle chokes to leg-locks or options of sweeps and scrambles. Although I feel that K control is a great tool for MMA in the appropriate hands, I am sure that Maia should have an answer for this as well as any other guard type you throw at him. That said, I believe that this guard style is the antithesis to Maia’s top game in regards to styles that will make him work. Similar to the great Rickson Gracie, Demian focuses his game on the mastery of fundamentals. Although you cannot understate the effectiveness of his approach, the Brazilian often takes the same path each time when advancing from topside.

Maintaining consistent pressure, Demain will elevate his hips as he utilizes his leg dexterity to complete leg-weaves or knee-slice passes. With Condit’s guard style providing him with an initial wall to work behind, it will be interesting to see how he uses this space as his activity will likely make Maia earn his advances. In my opinion, the key-junction in this fight will take place within the scrambles created by these scenarios. Although Carlos is one of the best at getting back to his feet, he tends to turtle out sometimes, which could give your back to a specialist like Maia. That is where I feel Ricky Lundell’s presence will come in handy, as Carlos now shows the hand-fighting and wrestling awareness that may help him navigate these spots.

Though Condit’s slow burn will likely cost him takedowns as well as rounds early on, I feel that the on-paper advantages of Maia will start to unwind should he not find a finish by the third(a round where he traditionally tires). We all talk about a “1st round Rumble” or “5th round Robbie“, but my favorite MMA trope is the “3rd round Carlos Condit”. Whether we are talking about the head kick landed on St. Pierre, the momentum shifts against Diaz & Lawler, or the demon that came out to fight Johny Hendricks in their final frame, a “3rd round Carlos Condit” is a consistent and dangerous being. Please do not mistake my enthusiasm for bias, as a dominate performance and finish by Demian would not surprise me, nor should it surprise you as I caution playing this one. Although I do believe that Maia has the tools to win the majority of the battles, I feel that Condit will have the proper intangibles to win the war.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Condit – Inside the distance

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Anthony Pettis (18-5)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’9″ Age: 29 Weight: 145 lbs Reach: 72″
•Last Fight: Decision loss / Edson Barboza (4-23-16)
•Camp: Roufusport/Jackson-Wink MMA (Milwaukee, WI)
•Stance/Striking Style: Switch-stance / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC Lightweight Champion
+ WEC Lightweight Title
+ 6 Submission wins
+ 9 KO victories
+ 12 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Athletic & Agile
+/-Works along the outside
^ Moves well laterally
+ Accurate shot selection
+ Diverse kicking game
^ Dangerous body attacks
+ Excellent feint utilization
+ Active bottom game
+ Improved takedown defense
^ Uses the cage to stand
– Struggles w/wrestling presssure
+/-1st fight at featherweight



Charles Oliveira (21-5)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’11” Age: 26 Weight: 145 lbs Reach: 74″
•Last Fight: Submission win / Myles Jury (12-19-15)
•Camp: Macaco Gold Team (Brazil)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ Brown Belt BJJ
+ Multiple Grappling Accolades
+ 13 Submission wins
+ 6 KO victories
+ 10 first round finishes
+ Solid Muay Thai arsenal
^ Dangerous knees & elbows
+ Accurate left hook
+/-Reverts to shell-defense
– Upright head & posture
^ Body shot availabilities
+ Underrated wrestling
+ Crafty clinch game
^ Favors takedown attempts here
+/-Will pull guard
^ Deadly off of his back
+ Superby transition grappler
^ Diverse submission acumen



Summary:

The co-main event for UFC on FOX is a promising predicament as the former lightweight champion, Anthony Pettis drops down to featherweight to meet Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira. Coming off of a 3-fight losing skid, Anthony Pettis is searching for a career rejuvenation at a weight-class he has long talked about visiting. Looking to the play the spoiler, former lightweight Charles Oliveira will once again welcome another fighter to the division.

Despite Pettis coming down a division, he will be the smaller and shorter man on fight night. Not only that, but Oliveira is accustom to fighting larger men as most of his UFC competition have been current or former lightweights. That said, Pettis should have the advantage for as long as this fight stays standing. Although Oliveira has a decent Muay Thai game, he has shown little adjustments over the course of his UFC tenor. Although he has made some improvements in the areas of footwork and defense, the long framed Brazilian naturally seems to keep upright in both his approaches and retreats.

Consistently reverting to a shell-defense, Charles has traditionally been susceptible to body shots. In fact, 2 of 3 TKO losses sustained by Oliveira were triggered by body shots that seemingly crippled the Brazilian. Whether or not this specific fragility is due to the issues Oliveira has had making the weight(officially missing the limit 3 times at featherweight), body kicks will be the strike to look out for considering Pettis throws them with impunity. However, Anthony may not throw them so liberally given that body kicks are the easiest to get turned into takedowns(as seen in Oliveira’s last fight with Jury).

In my opinion, Pettis will still have an edge in these scenarios given his speed, and the fact that Charles carries himself so upright that you rarely see him in a position to capitalize. Regardless of Anthony’s advantages standing, the key-junction in this fight will take place inside the clinch. A place where Oliveira prefers to score his takedowns from, Anthony’s anti-clinching abilities will be put to the test here. Despite losing close scorecards due to control time in his contest with Eddie Alvarez, Pettis displayed steady improvements to his defense and base maintenance.

Pettis did an efficient job of using the fence to stand, as the found a nice balance between not fully turtling out nor fully giving his head in the process. Given Oliveira’s back taking tendencies and his acumen for chokes off a front headlock, Pettis will need to be on point when looking to get back to his feet. With Anthony having a similar taste for submissions in regards to guillotine & guard attacks, he should have an inherent edge in sniffing out the sneaky Brazilian’s attempts. That said, it is not the first attempt of Oliveira you need to worry about, as the Brazilian chains submissions like he is firing them from an M-60 machine gun.

One-after-another, Oliveira needs only but a limb to initiate his sticky style of clinching, as Charles will use his diverse approach to force his opposition into poor decision making. Capitalizing on the drop of a dime, Oliveira will dive onto a submission as his attacks come in interweaving waves. I do not doubt that Pettis has the technical wherewithal to withstand as I’m sure he is well-trained, but the real question that underlines this fight for me is his mental state. With the main stretch of his UFC career coming in the form of quick nights at the office, it is not hard to see why Anthony got so high to take this fall in the first place. Still well within his prime at the age of 29, Pettis has not suffered the traditional miles that many others have thus far in his career.

With his physical capabilities arguably in full working order, I feel that the psychology of Pettis will be more of a factor in this fight than the actual weight cut. Although Anthony tends to operate near the fence(the preferred place for Oliveira’s takedowns), I feel that his lateral movement and anti-clinch acumen will allow him to get off in the big cage. Assuming that Anthony comes in clear and operating at a minimum of 75%, I suspect he will find a finish before the final bell. However, I would be lying to you if I said I was confident in picking Pettis given his recent trend. With Oliveira being more live than the odds suggest, I recommend caution playing this one as I’ll be sitting back and enjoying the fireworks.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Pettis – Inside the distance

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Paige VanZant (6-2)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’4″ Age: 22 Weight: 115 lbs Reach: 65″
•Last Fight: Sub loss / Rose Namajunas (12-10-15)
•Camp: Team Alpha Male (Sacramento, CA)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ BJJ Blue Belt
+ 2 Submission wins
+ 1 TKO victory
+ 1 first round finish
+ Relentless pace & pressure
^ Excellent conditioning
+ Aggressive clinch game
^ Dirty boxes/head & arm tosses
+ Solid scrambling ability
^ Consistently fights for position
+/-Developing striking game
– Lacks head movement
^ Counter availabilities



Bec Rawlings (7-4)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’6″ Age: 27 Weight: 115 lbs Reach: 64″
•Last Fight: Decision win / Seo Hee Ham (3-19-16)
•Camp: Alliance MMA (San Diego, CA)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Moderate


Supplemental info:
+ TUF 20 Alum
+ 4 Submission wins
+ 1 TKO victory
+ 4 first round finishes
+ Aggressive pace & pressure
+ Improved boxing
^ Favors L. hooks & R. uppercuts
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Improved takedown defense
+ Active top game
^ Relentless ground striker
+ Struggles w/wrestling pressure
^ Gas tank bares watching



Summary:

In what should be a fun fight in the strawweight division, Paige VanZant squares off with Bec Rawlings. Coming off a brief hiatus in which Paige participated in ABC’s “Dancing with the Stars”, the young VanZant will look to bounce back from her first UFC loss suffered last December. Seeking to play the spoiler is Bec Rawlings, an Australian contestant of TUF 20 who will look to build some more momentum since coming away with a win last March.

Starting off on the feet, I suspect Rawlings should hold a clear technical advantage in regards to striking. An often underrated striker, the Australian has made improvements to her overall game since moving shop to Alliance MMA in San Diego. Despite not kicking as much as Paige, nor most of her opposition, Rawlings does deceptively well at range once establishing her in-and-out rhythms. Working behind an improved jab, Bec often opts to finish her combinations with left hooks and uppercuts. Considering that VanZant has yet to display defensive head movement of note, expect the Australian’s punches to be live and seeking so long as this fight stays standing.

Despite traditionally eating shots on her way in, VanZant turns into a Tazmanian Devil in regards to her work rate on the inside. A decent dirty boxer herself, Paige will quickly change her agenda to takedowns as she does a good job of getting her opposition against the cage. Regardless of her success in grounding Bec, expect Paige to push for these positions as Rawlings has typically struggled here in the past. With VanZant likely looking to ground Bec, she will need to be careful in the way in which she favors going for takedowns. Often over-committing to hip tosses or head & arm throws, Paige tends to expose her back when failing upon executions.

Although VanZant is arguably the better scrambler, Bec shows a knack for taking backs in those situations where she can find her opponents turtled. That said, we have seen the Paige is no easy out in regards to submission attempts and her ability to take a shot. Despite Bec being no slouch with her ground striking acumen from topside, I feel that the scrambling ability of Paige will expose the previous problems of Rawlings’ career against girls who can out-position & scramble her with consistency. Although I am officially picking VanZant, I strongly disagree with the current betting lines as I feel this is closer to a pick em fight. With Rawlings’ power, size and experience being making her a live dog, I would caution any strong plays either way for the current asking prices.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: VanZant – Decision

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Joe Lauzon (26-11)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’10” Age: 32 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 70″
•Last Fight: TKO win / Diego Sanchez (7-9-16)
•Camp: Lauzon MMA (Boston, MA)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Boxing
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Purple Belt BJJ
+ 8 KO victories
+ 17 first round finishes
+ 17 Submission wins
+ Fast starter
+ Improved boxing
^ Accurate left hook
+/-Favors shell defense
^ Body shot & uppercut available
+ Underrated wrestling
+/-Aggressive transitional grappler
^ Sometimes gives position for submissions
+ Dangerous submission variety
+/-4-5 against southpaws



Jim Miller (26-8)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’8″ Age: 33 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 75.5″
•Last Fight: TKO win / Takanori Gomi (7-9-16)
•Camp: Miller Bros MMA (New Jersey)
•Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Muay Thai
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Black Belt BJJ
+ 4 KO victories
+ 10 first round finishes
+ 14 Submission wins
+/-Aggressive pace & pressure
^ Gas tank bares watching
+ Dangerous short elbows
+ Accurate check right hook
+ Solid leg/inside leg kick
+ Deadly submissions in transition
^ Will sometimes sacrifice position
+/-Willingness to fight from bottom
^ Active & attacking guard
+/-2-4 in last 6 fights



Summary:

Kicking off the main card on FOX is a rematch between two of the most beloved lightweights to compete in the division, as Joe Lauzon and Jim Miller square off one more time. Since their epic battle four years ago at UFC 155, both men have gone on to trade wins & losses in their careers as that bout clearly took something out of each competitor. Between the noted health issues of each fighter and their respective family members in last few years, it is not hard to see why consistency has been hard to come by for either man. That said, I am going to assume that each fighter is near top form as their gameness is unquestionable.

Starting off on the feet, I expect Miller’s Muay Thai arsenal to carry it’s same inherent advantages as before. A southpaw who celebrates his stylistic edges, Miller does a good job at finding the inside angle to deliver his left crosses and short elbows. We saw Jim excel early on in their first meeting as he found his rhythm faster than Joe did, which allowed him to open up a cut and get going. Usually following up his left hands with a cleanup hitting check right hook, Miller’s vicious inside leg kick was the real key to punctuating his punches. Using the inside leg kick as an entry into his combination work, Miller was able to off balance Lauzon from the jump and get the edge in exchanges.

Although he is also known as one of the division’s more aggressive fighters, Joe Lauzon is also one of the most intelligent as I will be looking forward to seeing what adjustments he will make in the rematch. Primarily drawing from a boxing based toolkit, Joe has some dangerous elbows of his own that I am sure he will be looking to use. That said, I suspect we may see more knees and punches to the body of Miller. Not only did Joe have the most success here in regards to striking with Jim, but we have seen Joe steadily develop these tools more since that fight.

Although Miller has been susceptible to body shots in the past, most of his trouble standing stems from his control of the center lane. Whether it is the jabs of Nate Diaz or the check knees from Cowboy Cerrone, Jim’s striking arsenal has shown to struggle when forced to fight at his opponents preferred range. So regardless of Lauzon’s approach, he will likely need to establish his range down to center lane to build on any success he finds. As far as defenses go, Lauzon is traditionally the more hittable man as he has a tendency to plot and revert to a shell-defense.

With these habits opening up Lauzon to body shots of his own, I the suspect striking traffic will once again become a two-way street. With the striking portion of this fight likely going to the man who establishes himself first, it will be interesting to which fighter can exploit the ground stanzas in their favor. With both men renown for their submission grappling abilities, we saw an exciting array of back-and-forth scrambles in their last outing. As has been accustom to their careers, each fighter employs an aggressive style of transitional grappling that can quickly turn south should a finish not materialize.

However, both Jim and Joe have seemingly noted this side effect to their style as they have each made adjustments in the subsequent years. Demonstrating a more measured approach from their top control to overall output, Jim Miller, and Joe Lauzon have each shown veteran savvy in regards to being realistic about their limitations. With each fighter difficult to submit when sober, I suspect the exchanges will be close as it may come down to whoever ends up on top. With Lauzon showing more of a trend for control as Miller shows a propensity to fight from his back, I give a slight edge to Joe to find his way topside.

Considering where these two fan-favorites are at this stage of their career, it is hard to ask for anything else as these fighters have given more than we can imagine. With both Joe and Jim still dealing with injuries that have plagued them from their first fight, all I can hope is that these two come away safely here. With an official pick being all but a formality for me in regards to this fight, I will be siding with Lauzon this time as I feel his trends are a bit more reliable. That said, there is no certainty in this matchup as I feel it is just as close as their first encounter, albeit for different reasons.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Lauzon – Decision

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Mixed Martial Analyst



Preliminary Card Predictions:

•Alvey def. Casey
•Bochniak def. Barzola
•Di Chirico def. McLellan
•Campbell def. Silva
•Laprise def. Gouti
•Hunter def. Janes
•Kennedy def. Ricci



Draft-Kings recommended rosters:


Team #1: $49,000.00

-Alessio Di Chirico ($11,000.00)
-Sam Alvey ($10,200.00)
-Carlos Condit ($10,000.00)
-Charles Oliveira ($9,000.00)
-Shane Campbell ($8,800.00)


Team Summary:

For my first draftkings recommended roster, I went with Alessio Di Chirico, Sam Alvey, and Carlos Condit as my high tier picks. Alessio Di Chirico is one of Italy’s more promising prospects, as he shows the early signs of a transition game that is reminiscent to a young St. Pierre. With his wrestling being the most impressive part of his game, the Italian demonstrates a learning curve that looks promising. With Garreth McClellan being a jack of all trades and master of none type fighter, this seems like a matchup that is meant to showcase Alessio as he bounces back from a competitive loss in his debut. Even if the Italian doesn’t find a finish, his accuracy and takedown acumen will likely rack up points in a clear decision.

For my second high tier pick, I went with Sam Alvey as he carries the 3rd highest average in regards to point scorers on the card. Although Kevin Casey has a knack for finding himself in strange affairs, I feel his downtrend has been a clear one as Sam presents a stylistic challenge regardless. A heavy-handed knockout artist who can defend the takedown, I feel Alvey finds a finish given how hittable Casey has shown to be on the feet. For the final high-tier option, I went with Carlos Condit as he is a main-event participant and also the highest average point earner on the card. For the reasons listed in my breakdown above, I feel Carlos can come through with a win as he usually does so in style.

For my low-tier options, I elected to go with Charles Oliveira & Shane Campbell. Although I officially picked Pettis, I stated in my breakdown above that Charles Oliveira is always a live dog. Given Pettis’ downtrend and traditional struggles with grappling pressure, an upset produced by Oliveira will likely score you big should you make a spot for the Brazilian. Lastly, I opted to go with Shane Campbell as I feel he is a supporting cast staple at the price of $8,800.00. Although his opponent Felipe Silva is a real undefeated threat who can strike with Shane, this battle of former Muay Thai competitors will likely produce a finish. Given that Shane has shown a more well-rounded game against higher opposition, I give the Canadian a slight edge to be the one left standing.



Team #2: $50,000.00

-Alessio Di Chirico ($11,300.00)
-Anthony Pettis ($10,400.00)
-Sam Alvey ($10,200.00)
-Demian Maia ($9,600.00)
-Shane Campbell ($8,800.00)

Team Summary:

For my second recommended draftkings roster, I went with Alessio Di Chirico, Sam Alvey, and Anthony Pettis. For the reasons listed in the team summary above, I feel that Alessio Di Chirico and Sam Alvey are well worth the cost as they each are in matchups that are stylistically favorable. For the final high-tier pick, I went with Anthony Pettis as his 83% finish rate could earn you major points given Oliveira’s do-or-die sensibilities. Although that fight is on my “fights to avoid” section, it is there due to the volatility for a finish on either side as I’m siding with Anthony officially.

For my low-tier picks, I elected to go with Demian Maia and Shane Campbell. For the reasons listed in the summary above, I went with Shane Campbell as I feel he is the most potent points earner on the bottom of the list. Although I officially picked Condit, I have no disillusions that Demian Maia can win this fight as I stated this in the breakdown above. As a main event competitor, even a vintage Maia performance should earn you a decent finishing spot at the end of the night if the Brazilian emerges victorious.




Props worth looking at

-Sam Alvey ITD: -105 (1.0 Unit)
-VanZant/Rawlings over 2 1/2: -270 (1.5 Units)



Playable favorites for your parlays:

-Alessio Di Chirico
-Chad Laprise
-Sam Alvey



Fights to avoid:

-Jeremy Kennedy vs Alessandro Ricci
-Anthony Pettis vs Charles Oliveira
-Shane Campbell vs Felipe Silva

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC on FOX 21 predictions: 'Prelims' undercard preview, Pt. 2
from Patrick L. Stumberg - MMA Mania





185 lbs.: Sam Alvey vs. Kevin Casey

After smashing his way into flirting with Middleweight contenders status thanks to three consecutive first-round knockouts, Sam Alvey (27-8) hit a major snag with underwhelming losses to Derek Brunson and Elias Theodorou. Less than one month after the latter bout, however, he returned to his finishing ways thanks to a brutal guillotine finish of Eric Spicely.

Seventeen of his 27 wins have come by knockout.

The ignoble exit from Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) for Kevin Casey (9-4-1) gave way to three straight wins on the regional circuit, resulting in his 2014 return. He has gone 1-1-1, 2 NC in his latest run, his win over Bubba Bush overturned because of a drug test failure.

He will give up three inches of height to the 6’2" Alvey.

Generally speaking, Alvey will either look very, very good or very, very bad. Luckily for him, Casey is a perfect foe for him to look good against. I’ve been high on Casey before, but his cardio issues show no signs of abating, he’s chinny, and Rafael Natal amply demonstrated how vulnerable he is to counters. He’s more or less tailor-made for Alvey provided the latter remembers to throw a punch every once in a while.

The fight is basically just a matter of waiting until Alvey finds his mark and Casey’s chin fails him for the fifth time. It will eventually result in a knockout win for "Smile’n Sam."

Final result: Alvey def. Casey by first-round knockout



155 lbs.: Chad Laprise vs. Thibault Gouti

Chad Laprise (10-2) capped off his impressive run through The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): "Nations" with a decision victory over teammate Olivier Aubin-Mercier, then followed that up with wins over Yosdenis Cedeno and Bryan Barbarena. He has since lost two straight to Brazilian hulk Francisco Trinaldo and fellow TUF alum Ross Pearson.

Four of his 10 wins have come via knockout, though none in his last eight bouts.

Thibault Gouti (11-2) punched his UFC ticket with a one-hit knockout of Anton Kuivanen, only to lose his Octagon debut in equally dramatic fashion as Teemu Packalen choked him out in 24 seconds. His next fight saw him survive two rounds against the aforementioned Aubin-Mercier before tapping to a third-round rear-naked choke.

He has stopped nine opponents overall, six via submission.

Laprise’s well-rounded game may not take him to a title, but it’s consistent and effective. He’s the better striker here and ought to have the wrestling to dictate the fight, making Gouti’s submission prowess a non-factor. Physical opponents and superior technicians appear to trouble Laprise -- Gouti is neither. Laprise keeps him at the end of one-two combinations and shuts down his takedown attempts for a decision win.

Prediction: Laprise via unanimous decision



145 lbs.: Enrique Barzola vs. Kyle Bochniak

Peru’s Enrique Barzola (11-2-1) had fought just once outside of his home country going into TUF: "Latin America 2." Luckily, he made the transition without issue and scored two wins on the show before outclassing Horacio Gutierrez on the Finale.

"El Fuerte" has knocked out and submitted four foes apiece.

Kyle Bochniak (6-1) didn’t let a little thing like timing stop him from making his UFC debut in Boston just nine days after his previous bout. There, "Crash" managed to drop hometown favorite Charles Rosa early, but ultimately lost a unanimous decision.

Like Barzola, his four finishes are split evenly between knockouts and submissions.

Bochniak impressed me against Rosa, showing a very solid wrestling game against the grappling specialist. Judging by Barzola’s fight against Gutierrez, he’ll come out with a similar gameplan. Bochniak’s already proven himself able to thwart it, and this time, he should get the win as well.

Barzola has more experience, but his and Bochniak’s records are rather close in terms of quality wins. Odds are, he’ll find Bochniak too big a jump, losing the wrestling battle en route to a decision loss.

Prediction: Bochniak via unanimous decision



155 lbs.: Felipe Silva vs. Shane Campbell

Felipe Silva (7-0) blasted through the South American circuit, picking up five first-round finishes in six fights. In his most recent bout, he went overseas to knock out Anton Kuivanen in his native Finland. He has knocked out five opponents and submitted another.

Shane Campbell (10-5) earned viral fame with his Street Fighter-inspired finish of Derek Boyle, setting the stage for his short-notice Octagon debut two months later. "Shaolin" has gone 1-3 in the promotion, most recently suffering a submission loss to Erik Koch in May. Five of his professional wins have come by knockout.

Silva’s obviously got power and Campbell’s struggled recently, but I believe he can avoid the three-fight skid. He’s the cleaner striker of the two and Silva’s grappling pales in comparison to that of James Krause and Erik Koch, who controlled Campbell on the mat. The Brazilian will likely give him the striking battle he wants and I do not see Campbell losing that.

Expect Campbell’s distance game to pay dividends as he keeps Silva at bay, avoiding his foe’s power clinch to ultimately take home the decision.

Prediction: Campbell via unanimous decision




Current UFC "Prelims" Prediction Record 2016: 107-62-4

 

[NewYorkKnight]

The Downes Side - Fight Night Vancouver Predictions
from Dan Downes - UFC.com




SAM ALVEY VS. KEVIN CASEY

We start in the middleweight division with Sam Alvey and Kevin Casey. While I still struggle to cope with a misplaced apostrophe in his nickname (Smile’N), Alvey knows how to place a knockout punch. He has 17 career KOs and 12 of them have come in the first round. A veteran of six fights inside the Octagon, Casey has to have one of the oddest UFC career records of all time – a draw, two no contests, a win and two losses.

Alvey is not what you would call an “active” fighter. In fact, he can go minutes at a time without throwing a single strike. He sits back, waits for opponents to move and hopes to land a counter strike. He’s had success with the strategy, but he better hope he gets the finish because he’ll never win on a scorecard. Casey is a strong fighter who attacks in bursts. His takedowns come from muscling opponents more than technique. Coupling that with Alvey’s 87.5% takedown defense, this fight is going to be on the feet, and that favors Alvey. Casey could win the early moments of the round with footwork and distance, but that’s not really his game. He likes to get in there and throw leather. Alvey simply has all the advantages in a fight like that.

Smile’N Sam will be add’N another first round knockout to his record.




PAIGE VANZANT VS. BEC RAWLINGS

Next we move to the women’s bantamweight division for Paige VanZant and Bec Rawlings. VanZant returns to the Octagon for the first time since her loss to Rose Namajunas in December. She’s also fresh off her stint on “Dancing with the Stars.” So for any fans of DWTS that are reading this column for the first time, think of me as Bruno, but with far less charisma. A TUF 20 vet, “Rowdy” Bec Rawlings has won her last two fights over Seohee Ham and Lisa Ellis.

We all knew the 22-year-old VanZant had holes in her game, and the Namajunas fight exposed all of them. Offensively, she’s solid. She’s aggressive, high volume and always looks for the finish on the ground or the feet. Defense (both striking and grappling) is where she leaves openings. Bec Rawlings mirrors her in a lot of ways. She, too, likes to charge forward and fight in a box. Primarily a boxer, she will slip in the occasional submission attempt. VanZant’s hand speed and overall quickness will be the difference maker. She’ll still get hit, but she will determine the pace and the points of engagement. Rawlings’s best path to victory would be to make it a clinch fight where her size and technique advantage would shine, but she might not be able to keep VanZant in one place.

PVZ wins by unanimous decision.



ANTHONY PETTIS VS. CHARLES OLIVEIRA

That brings us to the featherweight division for Anthony Pettis and Charles Oliveira. It’s been a rough patch for the former lightweight champion as of late. “Showtime” has lost three in a row and hopes the drop down to 145 pounds can

give him a momentum boost. As far as featherweight greeters are concerned, they don’t come much tougher than Charles Oliveira. He’s 4-1 in his last five fights and 19 of his career wins have been finishes (6 KOs, 13 submissions).

If Pettis wants to get off this current skid, he has to be more aggressive. He’s a brilliant, patient counter striker with one of the most dynamic kicking games in the UFC. If you look at his three losses, though, a pattern starts to emerge. Opponents pressure him, crowd his range and refuse to let him get comfortable. Especially in the case of Charles Oliveira, he’s at his best when he’s moving forward. He likes to blitz opponents with combos and then use that momentum to bring the fight to the ground. Pettis needs to have cage awareness. If he allows himself to get pushed up against the fence, he’s in for a rough night. He has a more disciplined approach than Oliveira, and that should help him.

Pettis controls the middle, slips in a few counter punches and takes the decision win.



DEMIAN MAIA VS. CARLOS CONDIT

Time for the main event! While a lot of fighters with Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belts try to force themselves to become standup fighters, Demian Maia has done the exact opposite. He’s embraced grapple-heavy tactics en route to five straight victories. By contrast, Carlos Condit’s last fight against Robbie Lawler had very little grappling. “The Natural Born Killer” has one of the most diverse striking attacks in the UFC. He’ll attack from both stances, at different levels and with any limb possible.

In a way, it’s sort of refreshing that Demian Maia doesn’t mess around with being a striker. If you watch his last two fights against Matt Brown or Gunnar Nelson, he’s shooting for a takedown within ten seconds of the round beginning. Now he may not have the best takedown conversion rate (31.25%), but he’s relentless. Even if his initial attack is rebuffed, he pressed forward and shoots again. I think this tactic can work against Carlos Condit. Robbie Lawler has a totally different skill set, but his greatest success came when he was pressuring Condit and controlling the center of the Octagon. The real question, however, is, “How will this play in the later rounds?” Condit is one of those fighters who becomes stronger as the fight progresses. While most fighters are trying to stall in the fifth round, he’ll still have a tremendous output. Condit will start to pour it on in the late rounds, but it will be too little, too late.

A battered, bruised Maia wins by unanimous decision.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Preliminary Card Parlay for UFC on FOX 21
from MMA Odds Breaker




Featherweight bout: Enrique Barzola (+155) vs Kyle Bochniak (-175)

Gabe’s Thoughts: Barzola returns to action after winning the TUF: Latin America tournament and looks to make it two in a row inside the Octagon for himself by taking out Bochniak, who will be looking to bounce back into the win column following a decision loss to Charles Rosa in his short notice protional debut. Now with a full camp under his belt, I think we will see him do well in this contest. I see him finding success in keeping this fight standing for the majority of three rounds to outbox Barzola for a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. His boxing is far superior and on the feet, this fight should be completely one sided.

Gabe’s Call: Bochniak by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)



Middleweight bout: Alessio Di Chirico (-225) vs Garreth McLellan (+185)

Gabe’s Thoughts: I believe Di Chirico is the superior mixed martial artist heading into this 185-pound contest and I see him having a big advantage on the feet. I am not confident he will be able to stop McLellan, but I am confident he will soundly outstrike him in this contest. If he does not find the finish, I think he will take all three rounds on the judges’ scorecards. Even at -225, I think holds great value, as I think he should be a 4-to-1 betting favorite heading into this contest.

Gabe’s Call: Di Chirico by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)




Gabe’s Recommended Parlay: Bochniak (-175) and Di Chirico (-225) at +126 for 3.55u to win 4.5u

 

[NewYorkKnight]

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC On FOX 21: Maia vs Condit Betting Preview
from Justin Hartling - Odds Shark




Demian Maia vs Carlos Condit

Since moving to the welterweight division, Demian Maia has accrued an 8-2 record with those two losses coming against some high-level fighters – Rory MacDonald and Jake Shields.

Maia is quite possibly the greatest Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner in MMA history. The fourth-degree black belt is unparalleled when the fight goes to the mat and has recorded 11 of his 23 career victories via submission. It may seem obvious, but Maia’s extremely lethal if he can get to the back. Once he takes the back, Maia uses the leg triangle to keep an opponent where he wants them while he works for a choke.

There is no doubt that Maia has put time in working on his wrestling and striking game. He is not dumb and he knows grappling is his bread and butter but Maia has developed complementary pieces to get the fight on the ground. The striking game of Maia is basic, but sufficient – with a heavy emphasis on a straight left hand. The wrestling game is built around suffocation and single leg takedowns. Maia will look to back his opponent to the cage and shoot for the single, which he will usually land or transition into back control.

There is no doubt where Maia wants this fight. He is not defensively tight on his feet and could be eating leather all night long if he's upright. If this fight turns into a brawl Maia will likely be chewed up and spit out.

Carlos Condit has earned the nickname ‘The Natural Born Killer.’ Condit has picked up 28 of his 30 victories via stoppage with an aggressive style both on the feet and on the ground.

Condit is a volume-based striker who is at his best when he is constantly pressing the action and digging into the body. Though he is usually pushing the pace, Condit is great at reacting to his opponent’s movement. He is able to anticipate where his opponent is moving and throwing a strike to meet them there. Condit is also varied in his striking attack, with equal lethality in his hands and his feet.

Though Condit doesn’t want the fight to make it to the mat, he is just as aggressive on the mat. If he is on top he will throw some ground and pound before trying to transition the fight back to the standup game. When on his back, Condit has one of the most brutal guards in the game. He is constantly throwing elbows and keeping his opponent from passing – plus he loves to throw out a kimura if his opponent leaves their arm exposed.

If there is one major flaw in Condit’s game it is his wrestling. Most of his losses have come against big, strong wrestlers who can hold him down and control the pace. His aggressive pace has helped him hide these wrestling deficiencies on occasion – by forcing his opponent to move backwards – but if an opponent gets a hold of Condit there is not a ton of resistance.


I hate boiling it down to this, but this is a striker vs grappler matchup. Condit wants to keep the fight standing while Maia wants to bring it to the mat. Either way, one fighter will have a distinct advantage, which makes me believe this is not destined to go five rounds.




Anthony Pettis will be making his featherweight debut against Charles Oliveira in the co-main event. Pettis has been largely shut down in his past three fights, as his opponents have decided to grind him and not give him space to strike. Pettis’ striking game is based around the jab and the leg kick, which means space is vital. It has been Pettis’ footwork that has allowed him to properly utilize his strikes, which is why fighters have now started suffocating him. Oliveira is mostly known for his grappling skills, as he is one of the best submission artists in the game today. Once a fight goes to the ground, Oliveira will almost always come away with the win. Oliveira’s standup game is based in Muay Thai and though it has been increasingly improving offensively, ‘Do Bronx’ can still show lapses in protecting himself.



Paige VanZant makes her return to the Octagon after becoming a public darling on Dancing With The Stars. The test won’t be easy, as PVZ will be taking on Bec Rawlings. VanZant is extremely athletic and powerful but is still green in terms of technique. She is a pressure-based striker who initiates the clinch by just running her opponent out of real estate. We saw just how ineffective many of her techniques were against Rose Namajunas. That being said, PVZ is still young and is aware of her issues, which means she may make strides. Rawlings is a tough fighter who tends to take over bouts due to her cardio and tough chin. She has solid boxing and underrated submission skills, but her wrestling leaves something to be desired.



The main card kicks off with a rematch of one of the bloodiest, most exciting bouts in UFC history, as Joe Lauzon and Jim Miller renew acquaintances. Miller is a former collegiate wrestler who holds a black belt in BJJ, which makes him extremely dangerous. However, Miller has no problem standing and banging with his opponent – though sometimes this can be to his own detriment. Lauzon is hyper-aggressive and has the ability to end a fight in every facet of the game – though submissions are his most dangerous weapon. ‘J-Lau’ is an all out fighter, which means he sacrifices his defense in order to push forward and attack.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC on Fox 21 Newcomer Breakdown: Felipe Silva



Prior to each UFC card, Jay Primetown takes a close look at debuting fighters. In the latest installment, we look at Brazilian newcomer Felipe Silva as he takes on Canadian striker Shane Campbell at UFC on Fox 21 in Vancouver, Canada.


Felipe Silva

Hometown: Juiz de Fora, Brazil
Age: 32
Height: 5’11”
Reach:
Weight Class: Lightweight
Camp: Pro Fight Team
Career Record: 7-0
Key Wins: Anton Kuivanen
Key Losses: None


Background

A professional since 2013, the decorated kickboxer is a three time Brazilian Kickboxing Champion and a two time Brazilian muay thai champion. Six of his seven career MMA wins have come by stoppage; five of them by knockout. In addition to striking, he also holds a purple bet in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu.


Strengths•Strength is range kicking game
•Does well in the clinch delivering knee strikes
•Lands hard body shots when opponent’s back against the cage
•Aggressive guard

Weaknesses
•Punches are wild
•Accuracy a real issue for him especially when he ends up in a brawl as opposed to a range contest
•Takedowns come from clinch situations as opposed to being able shoot from the outside
•Aggressive nature offensively leaves himself vulnerable to takedowns
•Conditioning a question mark

Match-up against Shane Campbell

This is a battle of two strikers in this undercard contest. Silva enters the UFC with solid kickboxing credentials amassing an excellent career record. He does a strong job working in strikes to the body both with punches and knees. Campbell fights very much the same way. He may not have the power that Silva has, but he fights at a high level pace for 15 minutes. In addition to that, Campbell has shown he can score takedowns and has some ability on the ground. Given the matchup, this is a tough fight to call. I see Silva having success early in this fight and has a real shot to put his opponent away. If he’s unable to do that, Campbell will have the better of the exchanges as the fight extends late. Campbell’s pace and work ethic give him the advantage in this bout, but it won’t be easy.

UFC Ceiling

Felipe Silva has a decent offensive skill set. I’m most impressed with his willingness to work to the body. The body shot continues to be the most underappreciated striking weapon in MMA. Silva is a fighter who will usually be in entertaining fights due to his aggressive nature and limited ground game. With that said, it also means he’s likely not to do well in the UFC. He’s skill set is simply to straight forward and at 32 years of age it’s likely too late for him to add the necessary pieces to have a successful career in the UFC. He may score a knockout win or two in the UFC, but beyond that don’t expect much.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC Fight Night: main card predictions
from Jonathan Bradley - FOX Sports




Demian Maia vs. Carlos Condit

The main event of UFC Vancouver pits one of the greatest grapplers of all-time, Demian Maia, against one of the best strikers to ever grace the Octagon in Carlos Condit. This fight is especially hard to predict since not only are both fighters have shown to be incredibly dominant when sticking to their specialties.

Maia has dominated some of the UFC’s best grapplers recently, including the likes of Gunnar Nelson and Neil Magny, while holding talented strikers Matt Brown and Ryan LaFlare to just 35 combined significant strikes. He’ll face his toughest welterweight test to date on Saturday, however.

Carlos Condit has long been one of the most dangerous fighters on the roster and he’s faced -- and beaten -- his fair share of talented grapplers. Since 2012, he’s outlanded opponents 593-381 in significant strikes, but he’s also been taken down 29 times in that same four-year, seven-fight span.

He’ll definitely need to keep the fight standing if he wants to walk away from Vancouver victorious. If he doesn’t, Maia will likely walk away with the win.

Prediction: Condit by decision



Anthony Pettis vs. Charles Oliveira

The co-main event at UFC Vancouver promises to be a high-flying affair as action-fighters Anthony Pettis and Charles Oliveira go toe-to-toe. The fight will be Pettis’ first UFC bout at featherweight and we’re all interested to see how the former champion holds up in the new weight class.

Both fighters have a diverse skillset on the feet while Oliveira has shown flashes of brilliance on the ground. That isn’t to say Pettis will be afraid to take the fight to the mat -- he’s currently the only person to have submitted former champions Gilbert Melendez and Benson Henderson. But Pettis knows it’s his electrifying striking that helped him gain notoriety in the Octagon, and he’ll need to use that striking to overwhelm Oliveira on fight night.

Oliveira is coming off a first-round submission of Myles Jury and has won five of his last six. But his struggles with fighters who won’t right in front of his waiting to get hit or taken down is evident.

Pettis can be a forced to be reckoned with in the 145-pound division, but he’ll have to get past the well-rounded Oliveira first.

Prediction: Pettis by decision



Paige VanZant vs Bec Rawlings

Strawweight strikers Paige VanZant throw down in a potential Fight of the Night candidate. Frankly, if the top too fights on the card weren’t so compelling, this would be the front runner.

Both Rawlings and VanZant fight at a frenetic pace, landing 4.8 and 3.4 strikes per minute, respectively, while hovering around 50 percent when it comes to accuracy. And despite Rawlings sitting outside the division top 15, they are fairly even in regards to their abilities inside the Octagon.

Like many of the fights in the tough strawweight division, this is a tough one to call. But we think VanZant’s takedowns make the difference here.

Prediction: VanZant by decision



Joe Lauzon vs. Jim Miller

The first fight between these two UFC greats at UFC 155 in 2012 was an absolute war that saw Jim Miller walk away with a decision win and both fighters earn Fight of the Night honors. They’ll do it again on Saturday, both a bit older and wiser, but not in the least bit less exciting.

Lauzon’s last two wins have come by way of first-round knockouts while Miller is fresh off a blistering KO of Takanori Gomi at UFC 200. If Miller wanted to get his hand raised against Lauzon again, he’ll have to implement much of the same gameplan as the first fight -- pressure Lauzon with big punch-kick combinations and punish the Boston native with his heavy left hand.

If he can do that, and not run out of gas, he might be able to finish Lauzon this time around.

Prediction: Miller by third-round KO

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC on Fox 21 Primer: Carlos Condit vs. Demian Maia Head-to-Toe Breakdown
from Nathan McCarter - Bleacher Report



Striking

At a base-level this matchup is a striker vs. grappler fight. Condit is the striker in this instance.

Condit offers up a full range of an offensive arsenal. Perhaps more importantly, Condit is a high-volume striker. He keeps a high pace for the entire fight no matter if it is three or five rounds. Condit can knock his opponents out in the first or overwhelm them in the championship rounds.

Maia has drastically improved his striking since his UFC debut nearly a decade ago, but he's still nowhere near Condit's level.

Condit's output is not the lone difference, but it is one of the most noticeable. Per FightMetric, Condit lands 3.8 significant strikes per minute compared to Maia's 1.83.

It's always possible for a single shot to end the night of an opponent no matter the discrepancy in striking, but it's 99-to-1 that if this fight is fought completely on the feet it will result in a Condit victory.

Edge: Condit



Grappling

The grappling portion of this fight is compelling.

Condit does not look for takedowns often, but he has the skill set to employ them if need be. Although against someone the caliber of Maia, he likely won't choose to go that route. Likewise, Maia has exceptional takedowns with trips and a single leg.

Where the grappling gets interesting is against the cage.

The battle against the fence for positioning purposes will be key for both men. Maia needs the outside position to drop for his single leg takedowns, and Condit can stifle Maia by controlling him while landing short knees to the midsection.

Maia gets the edge for being the more proactive grappler, but Condit can hold his own.

Edge: Maia



Submissions

This is a clear-cut advantage for Maia.

Condit has solid submission abilities of his own, but Maia is on a whole other level. He's not a Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion for nothing.

Maia has also proven those abilities in the cage against excellent competition. Submissions over Chael Sonnen, Rick Story, Neil Magny and Matt Brown are just a few of his highlights. Condit will not be an easy out even if the fight hits the floor, but Maia is an expert in this field.

Over the course of five rounds expect this fight to go to the mat at least once. Have your popcorn ready.

Edge: Maia



X-Factors


Condit's X-Factor: Leg Kicks

Condit has excellent kicks, but he may be more reluctant to throw them against Maia. The chance that Maia could catch a kick and take Condit down is very real, but Condit needs to throw and land his kicks in this matchup.

Damaging Maia's leg will have big effects in the fight. He won't be able to explode forward to close the distance, nor will he be able to have meaningful power in his strikes. Condit just needs to take calculated risks in order to take away one of Maia's biggest paths to victory.



Maia's X-Factor: Closing the Distance

Condit is a tall fighter who knows how to use his reach. Maia cannot be stuck on the outside all fight.

How he chooses to get inside will be telling of his game plan, and his success in doing so will be key to watch. If he cannot get inside, the window of opportunity to win this fight is almost certainly closed shut.

Maia needs to get the fight to the fence, secure the outside position and do what he does best.



Prediction

Condit's ability to control the distance makes Maia's path to victory narrow. His high output, exciting and effective striking also means he'll collect the lion's share of the points while the fight is standing. Picking Condit may be the smart pick here.

But I'm taking Maia.

If he can score early takedowns and grind on Condit it will pay off in similar fashion as it did against Matt Brown. It will lead to a late-round submission. Condit can only fight off Maia for so long before succumbing to the Brazilian.

Maia secures a single leg from the clinch, baits Condit and snags a choke in the fourth round. The question following the win will be how can the UFC deny him a title shot after a sixth straight victory. I, for one, don't have the answer to that. He will have earned his chance at glory.

Prediction: Maia defeats Condit via submission in the fourth round

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC on FOX 21 Preliminary Predictions
from Kamikaze Overdrive




185lbs- Sam Alvey (27-8-0 1NC) vs Kevin Casey (9-4-1 2NC)

In the undercard headliner, ‘Smile’n’ Sam Alvey makes his third appearance in as many months against ‘King’ Kevin Casey. Casey is coming off of a draw against Elvis Mutapcic and is 1-1-1 with a pair of No Contests over his last 5 fights. Alvey snapped a 2-fight losing skid with his win over Eric Spicely, all 4 of his UFC wins have come by opening round finish.

Alvey is 3 inches taller and 5-years younger than Casey, but Casey will have a 2″ reach advantage.

A BJJ Black belt, Casey is a ground specialist. The majority of his wins are centered around his ability to drag his opponent to the mat and keep them there. He picked up a pair of takedowns against Mutapcic and found success countering to top position in his only official Octagon victory over Ildemar Alcantara. All 3 of his submission wins have come via rear-naked choke. He is a physically strong fighter and will both smother his opponent from top position and can do damage when is he able to posture up and land strikes. Against Mutapcic, he started strong landing an early takedown and controlling the position. He had similar success in the middle round, but was starting to slow down and slowed further as the fight progressed. The defining aspect of Casey’s career has been his cardio. Despite his ability to dominate on the mat, his cardio makes it difficult for him to score takedowns and maintain his output over a full 15-minutes. ‘King’ Casey has had some success on the feet, mainly built around the pop in his punches. He cracked Alcantara a couple of times and was able to back him off with his power, which is usually deployed in single strikes.

Casey fought is last fight just a day after the death of his father-in-law Muhammad Ali.

Similar to his opponent, Alvey is a specialist. While not nearly as one-dimensional as Casey, Alvey has recorded 17 of his 27 wins by knockout. He is coming off of his third career submission win, but he is just 10-7 in fights not ending by knockout. Alvey has face melting power, capable of ending a fight with one-punch. Arguably his most impressive victory came over Cezar Ferreira, where Alvey waited out his foe’s attack before unloading with just 4 total strikes to render the Brazilian unconscious. He has put together similar performances where he stopped his foe with a minimal amount of offense, but when he is unable to score the knockout it is difficult for Alvey to win a decision. Most recently, Elias Theodorou used a gameplan built around movement and remaining elusive to avoid getting tagged with Alvey’s fight-ending power. A Team Quest product, Alvey has shown good TDD defending 87% of his opponents’ takedown attempts. While Sam isn’t one to go offensive with his wrestling, if he does get on top he can do a lot of damage with his GNP.

Wisely attempted to drag Alvey to the mat, but Sam did an excellent job of remaining vertical and eventually locked up a standing guillotine choke for the finish.

Alvey represents a terrible stylistic matchup for Casey. Unless Casey is able to finish Alvey early, he isn’t going to be able to take him down and keep him down for the entire fight without his cardio faltering. Alvey’s TDD is good enough to trouble Casey and force him to work hard to gain that coveted top position. Even if Casey scores an early completion or 2, Alvey will make him work on the mat and tire him out in the process. Either after Casey slows down or during an early exchange, Alvey is going to have plenty of opportunities to attack his opponent on the feet. Casey is way too reliant on closing the distance to set up his grappling to stick to the outside and avoid Sam’s power. Sam Alvey does what he does well and that blasts his foe during an early exchange

my prediction is Sam Alvey to defeat Kevin Casey by knockout




145lbs- Enrique Barzola (12-2-1) vs Kyle Bochniak (6-1-0)

In the Featherweight division, TUF Latin America winner Enrique ‘El Fuerte’ Barzola of Peru fights Kyle ‘Crash’ Bochniak. Barzola defeated Horacio Gutierrez in the TUF tournament final and is 4-1 over his last 5 fights. Bochniak took a short notice opportunity to get into the UFC, but lost to Aaron Rosa as a Lightweight- the first defeat of his career.

It is also worth noting that Barzola won the Lightweight TUF bracket. Both fighters are 5’7″ and share an identical 70″ reach. The Peruvian is the younger man by 2 years.

‘Crash’ put up a valiant effort in his extremely short notice debut against Aaron Rosa, in Rosa’s hometown no less. Bochniak entered the UFC on the strength of back to back opening round finishes- a knockout and a technical submission by rear-naked choke. He started his pro career in similar fashion and has diced up his 6 career victories evenly between knockouts, submissions, and decisions. Against Rosa, he came out aggressive on the feet. Bochniak was landing hard right hands and showed good timing; slipping out of range and then back inside to attack. Kyle did find the mark a couple of times in round 1, with a pair of knockdowns. He also mixed in some low kicks and knees on the inside. It appeared that Rosa was able to pick up on Bochniak’s reliance on his right and got better at avoiding them in the second half of the fight. For a debuting fighter, he moved very well and looked relaxed in the early going, but started to slow down as the fight progressed and the damage piled up.

Bochniak got taken down a couple of times, but battled his way back up and even scored his own takedown during round 2.

Barzola represented Team Escudero during his run to the Latin America 2 Ultimate Fighter title. He has a sizeable experience advantage over his foe, with twice as many pro fights on his resume. He has split his 11-career wins evenly between submissions and knockouts, with a 3-2 record on the scorecards. Prior to his UFC debut, the most noteworthy name on his resume was a 2014 decision loss to fellow UFC competitor Fernando Bruno. Enrique has just two opening round finishes on his record, with 5 of his stoppage coming in the middle frame. He utilized a takedown-heavy attack to get the nod over Gutierrez, landing 5 of his 9 takedowns. Early on he appeared to have trouble with the footwork of his opponent, struggling to close the distance and shoot. Once he got a hold of his foe, he grabbed onto a single but expended a lot of energy attempting to muscle him to the floor. Later in the fight he found more success, including a nice reactive TD when Gutierrez threw a kick. On top, he keeps his hips heavy and postures up to land decent ground and pound. If the opportunity presents itself to pass the guard he will, but he is content to sit on the inside and do damage. He scored a top position stoppage on the show with a brutal body punch forcing his foe to tap out.

Barzola didn’t showcase a lot of his striking in his debut. He was swinging a big overhand right while ducking forward, but most of his vertical offense was centered around closing the distance.

This fight will hinge on whether or not Barzola can get the fight to the floor with consistency. Bochniak showed solid TDD against Rosa and wasn’t easy to keep down. If he can repeat that success against Enrique, it will force the TUF winner out of his comfort zone. Bochniak’s striking is still developing, but he showed signs of a solid base to build upon. His timing and movement will make it tough for his foe to close the distance and shoot on him. Additionally, when Barzola tries to rush forward, look for Kyle to counter with a stiff straight right. Bochniak took a difficult assignment in his debut, but for this fight he is in his proper weight class and taking on a more appropriate opponent for this point in his career. Bochniak sticks to the outside, stuff the TDAs, and gets the better of the striking exchanges

my prediction is Kyle Bochniak to defeat Enrique Barzola by decision.




155lbs- Shane Campbell (12-5-0) vs Felipe Silva (7-0-0)

In the Lightweight division, Shane ‘Shaolin’ Campbell battles Brazilian-born Felipe Silva. Campbell has lost 2 in a row and is 1-3 in the UFC, he is coming off a second-round submission loss to Erik Koch. Silva is making his debut following a first-round TKO win over former UFC competitor Anton Kuivanen earlier this year.

Both men are 6’0″ tall. The Canadian is the younger man by 3 years, but has 10 more pro fights.

The Brazilian makes his debut on the strength of his biggest career win. Still undefeated, Silva has finished 5 opponents by knockout along with a single submission win. He has stopped 6 opponents in the opening round, with his only fight to go outside of round 1 ending on the scorecards. Felipe is a Muay Thai striker by trade. He will work on the outside with kicks as his strongest weapon. The majority of his punches are hooks. He seems to have trouble finding his range with his hands, frequently coming up short when he attacks. Once he does close the distance, his clinch game is solid. Look for him to land hard knees and short elbows on the inside. He doesn’t appear to have much of an offensive wrestling game, but in his only submission win he snatched up a quick triangle before transitioning to an armbar to finish after getting taken down.

Prior to his win over Kuivaven, Silva’s last 3 opponents’ currently combined for a record of 11-16.

Campbell had a strong start against John Makdessi and a good finish against James Krause, but he was unable to win either fight. The Canadian has a decent edge in experience, both quality and quantity. His record also shows a more well-rounded skill set than what his opponent offers. While Campbell is a striker first, his only UFC victory was anchored in his grappling abilities. Despite Elias Silverio initiating the early grappling exchanges, Campbell landed a couple of takedowns and worked to top position when Silverio did take him down. The TDD of ‘Shaolin’ has been impressive and he is a decent scrambler. On the feet, Shane carries a solid pace both at distance and on the inside. He found a lot of success attacking the lead leg of Makdessi and was doing damage with his combos. His clinch attack can be equally as effective, with a bevy of short punches, elbows, kick and knees coming from close range.

Despite losing the decision, Campbell badly out-landed Krause connecting on 82 significant strikes, including 46 to 16 over the last 2 rounds.

Silva is making a sizeable step up in competition, but as an undefeated fighter he has a certain level of confidence and momentum coming into his debut. Conversely, Campbell has struggled to put together a complete effort beyond the Silverio fight. Campbell should benefit from the lack of a grappling threat that Felipe presents. If anything, the Canadian might look to take Silva down and force him to fight outside of his comfort zone. When they are standing, look for the superior punching combinations of Campbell to give him the edge. On the inside, the constant pressure and volume of Campbell will also play a big role. The lack of long fight experience for the Brazilian could also show up as his opponent ups the tempo if the fight moves into rounds 2 and 3. Campbell has more weapons and will outwork his opponent in all areas

my prediction is Shane Campbell to defeat Felipe Silva by TKO




155lbs- Chad Laprise (11-2-0) vs Thibault Gouti (11-2-0)

In the newly assigned UFC Fight Pass prelim headliner, TUF Nations winner Chad ‘The Disciple’ Laprise squares off with France’s Thibault Gouti in the Lightweight division. Laprise is trying to snap a 2-fight losing skid after a contestable split-decision loss to Ross Pearson. Gouti is currently enduring a similar slump after getting submitted by the man Laprise defeated in the TUF final- Olivier Aubin-Mercier.

Both fighters are 5’10”, but Gouti will have a slight 1″ reach advantage and is a year younger.

The Canadian’s defeat at the hands of Pearson saw Laprise outland his opponent by a count of 72-58. Laprise offers a lofty 4.4 SLpM, including a UFC personal best of 84 in his win over Bryan Barberena. A BJJ Purple belt, Laprise has just a single submission win on his record compared to 4 knockouts and a 5-1 record on the scorecards. During his TUF run, Chad violently knocked Canadian Teammate Kajan Johnson, breaking his jaw in the process. ‘The Disciple’ demonstrates strong technical striking acumen. He maintains forward pressure with good footwork and mixing up his strikes effectively. Laprise will set up his offense off of a hard left jab, doubling it up, and augments his boxing with a decent kicking game highlighted by a hard right head kick. Defensively, Laprise does get hit a lot- 3.59 SApM. Pearson found success landing hard kicks to Chad’s lead leg and Barberena came on strong late in the fight with his clinch attack.

Laprise has shown signs of a competent wrestling attack. He completed 4 of his 7 takedowns in his 2014 win over Yosdenis Cedeno.

Potentially facing his walking papers with another loss, Gouti is in need of a strong performance. With 9 finishes (3KO/6sub) over 11 victories, Thibault has only fought beyond the second round twice in his career. Both of those fights occurred over his last 3 appearances. He has been finished twice by RNC. Gouti comes from a boxing background, despite his submission-heavy totals. Most of his success on the mat is a product of the lower quality of opposition he faced on the regional scene. A crisp striker, he works behind his jab with decent hand speed and power. The majority of his kicking offense comes in the form of low kicks, but he will forgo that aspect of his game in favour of his boxing. Gouti does have a tendency to freeze up when under attack and OAM found success landing multi-punch combos. He was rocked with a hard uppercut in his debut prior to getting submitted.

The Frenchman gave up a trio of takedowns before getting subbed by OAM and seems to have some issue when his opponent continuously drives forward on his shot.

Both fighters have some nice pop in their hands and both have proven vulnerable during striking exchanges. The difference should be that Laprise has more tools to work with when engaging. The Canadian does a much better job of integrating his kicks consistently throughout his attack. Additionally, his lateral movement will make it difficult for Gouti to push forward behind his strikes and continuously land. Laprise should have the better wrestling both offensively and defensively, allowing him to dictate where the fight takes place. ‘The Disciple’ pairs his punches up, threatens with the high kick, and eventually puts his foe down

my prediction is Chad Laprise to defeat Thibault Gouti by TKO




185lbs- Garreth McLellan (13-4-0) vs Alessio Di Chirico (9-1-0)

In the Middleweight division, ‘Soldier Boy’ Garreth McLellan of South Africa meets Italy’s Alessio ‘Manzo’ Di Chircio. McLellan is 1-2 in the UFC after a second round TKO loss to Magnus Cedenblad- he defeated Bubba Bush in his lone UFC victory. Di Chircio is coming off of his first pro loss, falling to Bojan Velickovic by decision in his UFC debut.

Alessio is the younger man by 7 years and will have a slight 2″ reach advantage. McLellan is 1″ taller at 6’1″.

The South African enters the fight off of his 2nd career loss by knockout. He has also been subbed once and is 1-1 on the scorecards. A ground-based fighter, McLellan has 9 wins by submission with 7 of those victories coming by either rear-naked or guillotine choke. His success in the UFC has largely hinged on his mat game. In his only win, he landed a pair of takedowns and eventually overwhelmed his foe with his top position strikes. Conversely, he was put on his back 10-times in his debut loss and was forced on the defensive for almost the entire bout. When he does land takedowns they usually are in the clinch position. The majority of his striking offense comes in the form of kicks, which was the case early against Cedenblad. Throwing most of his strikes naked and attacking in straight lines makes the South African’s offense easier to time, avoid, and/or counter. Cedenblad hurt him early on with a straight left counter and landed a hard head kick before finishing McLellan with a barrage along the cage.

Prior to entering the UFC, McLellan fought exclusively in South Africa, including a 13-1 run under the EFC Africa banner.

Despite the defeat, Di Chirico made a good showing of himself in his inaugural UFC outing. He got the better of the volume, with 65 total strikes landed compared to 45 for his foe and he scored a pair takedowns while giving up just 1. The Italian has stopped his foe in 8 of his 9 victories, split evenly between subs and knockouts. He began his career with 5 consecutive opening round stoppages, but has seen a rise in fight time in the second stage of his career with a pair of 2nd round finishes and a trio of fights lasting into the final frame. The 26-year old made noticeable improvements in his footwork heading into his debut, appearing more mobile than in previous fights. His combination striking is still a work in progress, as he tends to rely a lot on his single strikes. He uses a nice overhand right, either stepping in or drifting off to the left while landing. Alessio will also target the body with his right hand. From the left side, he will work a counter left hook- but he needs to avoid being too reliant on his counter striking. ‘Manzo’ throws some decent kicks, attacking the legs and body. He does have a tendency to throw his strikes a little wide, especially when he doesn’t use his jab to set them up.

The pair of takedowns he did land in his debut didn’t result in any significant top control time, but he has leaned heavily on his mat game during his pre-UFC success.

McLellan hasn’t been that impressive during his UFC run, even in victory. Against Bush, ‘Solider Boy’ was put on his back multiple times and didn’t start to find success until the American slowed down tremendously. His offense is extremely single-minded; takedowns or relatively ineffective kicks at distance. Conversely, Di Chirico is showing signs of a developing fighter rounding out his offensive weaponry. With a young fighter coming off his first loss, it should push Alessio to continue to make improvements. At distance, Di Chirico will land more frequently with his hands and find success countering his opponent’s kicking game. The Italian should be able to avoid or defend against any attempts to get the fight to the mat and exploit the subpar TDD of his foe if he elects to go that route. It didn’t take a lot of damage to get McLellan out of his last fight and he didn’t respond well to getting hit

my prediction is Alessio Di Chirico to defeat Garreth McLellan by TKO.




185lbs- Ryan Janes (8-1-0) vs Adam Hunter (7-1-0)

In the second double Canadian billing on the card, Ryan Janes of Victoria, British Columbia takes on New Brunswick’s Adam ‘Warhammer’ Hunter in a cross country Middleweight war. Janes has won 7-fights in a row dating back to his first career loss in 2009. Hunter picked up a victory over UFC veteran Nathan Dempsey in his final pre-Octagon bout, he has also won 7-consecutive fights since suffering his first pro loss.

At 6’3″, Janes is the taller man by 2 inches. Hunter is 2 years his junior and has been more active with 2 fights in 2016 compared to Janes who hasn’t competed in over 13-months.

‘Warhammer’ has finished his opponent in all 7 of his professional wins; knocking out 6 after earning the first win of his pro career on the mat via rear-nake choke. Hunter started his MMA run 0-1 after getting tapped out in the final minute of the opening round of a 2010 fight. The Maritimer has gone outside of the first frame on just 1 occasion, earning an early 3rd round TKO back in April. In his win over Dempsey, Adam fended off a front choke/ headlock attempt before landing a couple of hard leg kicks, a left jab, and then going high with a head kick to close the show. Hunter is aggressive and willing to eat some punches while working his way into range to put his opponent away. In his penultimate regional fight, he bullied his foe into the cage and used his dirty boxing to bust them up. Hunter mixed in some knees in close and kicks at range, and while he appeared to slow a bit as the fight progressed he was still active. The bout was eventually stopped following a hard uppercut that sent Hunter’s foe tumbling to the canvas.

Not only has Hunter been finishing opponents in the opening round, he has stopped 4 adversaries inside the first 65-seconds.

Not only has Hunter been finishing opponents in the opening round, he has stopped 4 adversaries inside the first 65-seconds.

Janes brings with him an equally as finish-heavy record, with 7 of 8 wins coming by submission. A BJJ Purple belt, he has 6 rear-naked choke victories on his record and is 1-1 on the scorecards. Janes is the current Battlefield Fight League Middleweight champion, most recently defeating his opponent by via submission in the 4th round. Ryan picked up a trio of opening round stoppages early in is career, but over his last 5-fights he has taken much longer to finish his opponents. His title defense was anything but easy as the challenger found success defending his takedowns and getting the better of the exchanges on the feet. Janes’s TDAs came mainly from the clinch, using body locks and trips, but they were infrequent at best. The finish materialized after Jane hurt his foe with a hard knee to the body that forced him to turtle up and expose his back to the RNC finish.

Janes picked up a submission victory over David Perron at WSOF Canada 2 and then repeated the feat with a 2nd round RNC win over Perron at Battlefield Fight League 35 less than a year later.

In addition to both men entering the UFC as older, but still developing fighters- the lack of quality fight footage (especially for Janes) makes this a hard, but not impossible prediction. Simply based on their records, Janes is going to want to take this fight to the mat and his average fight length suggests he is better equipped to partake in a longer bout. For Hunter, he has big stopping power and will come out aggressive as he is accustom to ending his fights early. The recent lack of activity for Janes is concerning. Additionally, he was losing his last fight for 3 rounds and was getting hit hard by opponent prior to getting the finish. Being able to survive a beating like he did is a testament to his durability, but absorbing power strikes is rarely a long-term positive. He was rocked by his foe and his tall stance and porous striking defense will leave him exposed against Hunter’s power. Janes’s reliance on clinch takedowns is going to force him to close the distance, carrying him into the danger zone against Hunter who can do damage both on the outside and in close. Janes’s will struggle to drag his opponent to the mat, forcing him to trade on the feet against a more dangerous striker

my prediction is Adam Hunter to defeat Ryan Janes by TKO.




155lbs- Alex Ricci (10-3-0) vs Jeremy Kennedy (8-0-0)

In an all-Canadian Lightweight bout, the debuting Jeremy ‘JBC’ Kennedy meets injury replacement Alex Ricci. Kennedy is coming off a pair of victories on the scorecards, ending a streak of 5 consecutive finishes. Ricci has won back to back fights after falling to recent UFC signee Darrell Horcher- his other pro losses have come against Ryan Healy and Jesse Ronson.

Ricci is replacing Josh Emmett on just over a week’s notice, he had been preparing for a fight in September. Kennedy normally competes at 145 pounds, he is 1″ taller than Ricci and 10-years younger.

Ricci enters the Octagon over 4-years removed from his last finish. He is 5-3 on the scorecards, with his other 5 victories coming by way of knockout. Alex is a striking-based fighter and has an extensive combat background in Muay Thai. Not surprisingly, his MMA offense is centered around his ability to stay vertical and let his hands go. He moves well in the cage, throwing hard kicks to the legs, body, and head. In addition to the kicking game, he has a strong right hook and can do damage in the clinch. Conversely, Healy found success driving him into the wall and using his dirty boxing to take the decision. Ricci isn’t a high output striker and has struggled at times to let his techniques flow. Alex has a bit of a reputation for being frustratingly inconsistent and fighting down to the level of his opposition.

Ricci has fought just twice since the start of 2015 and was scheduled to take part in the ill-fated Global Warriors FC 3 card earlier this summer.

Similar to Ricci, Kennedy has fought just once in each of the last 2 years. He has finished 5 opponents (3 knockouts/2 subs) and is 3-0 on the scorecards. Fighting out of Surrey, British Columbia he will be the clear fan favourite. While his record is devoid of any big name opposition, his last 3 opponents have a combined 22-9 record which suggests he has faced reasonably capable regional competition. The book on Kennedy is that he will be looking to get this fight to the mat. He will aggressively chase the takedown and once on the floor start working his submission game. Jeremy will shoot from the outside, but appears to prefer working trips from the clinch. ‘JBC’ also comes from a kickboxing background. He is a capable counter striker, but if he does initiate the attack, it will come behind an active left jab and a right hook with some decent pop.

Kennedy put together an impressive run as an amateur prior to turning pro. He compiled a 6-1 record which included a pair of 5-round decision wins.

Without a lot of Canadian content on the card and the recent departure of one of the biggest Canadian MMA stars to Bellator, the UFC is looking for more talent coming from north of the border. Kennedy is a solid prospect, but despite having close to the same number of fights- Ricci is a much more complete veteran fighter. Alex’s issues with underperforming are certainly a concern, but with the short notice call up and underdog status he has every reason to come into this fight loose. Ricci’s size and Muay Thai skills should help him to deal with the clinch based takedowns of his opponent. Look for the more aggressive style of Kennedy to falter under the bright lights against a tough to finish fighter like Ricci. The Ontario-native should find success early with his striking, but once his adversary starts to slow down the gap will widen

my prediction is Alex Ricci to defeat Jeremy Kennedy by decision.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC on Fox 21 Predictions: Main Card Bleacher Report Staff Picks




Joe Lauzon vs. Jim Miller

Nathan McCarter

Both men looked outstanding at UFC 200, but both men have also been inconsistent as of late. It's a crapshoot picking this bout. I'll take Lauzon on a whim. While I would love to be confident, I can't be with how both have performed in the past two or three years. I'm just rolling the dice.

Lauzon, unanimous decision



Steven Rondina

Both guys still "bring it" but Miller is still a southpaw, and Joe Lauzon struggles to deal with those. Should still be a fun one, though!

Miller, unanimous decision



Sydnie Jones

The first time they fought at the end of 2012, Miller took a unanimous decision over Lauzon. Since then, he's gone 4-4-1, while Lauzon is at 4-3. Neither record is stellar, and both have lost to some high-level fighters. But Lauzon seems to be faring better than Miller and perhaps holding up better, as well. Both are Brazilian jiu-jitsu beasts, but Lauzon hasn't submitted someone since Jamie Varner four years ago, and Miller should be good enough to defend.

Miller, unanimous decision



Scott Harris

Lauzon needed 40 stitches to heal his face after their 2012 fight. This won't be like that (most likely), but it still should be cracking good. Lauzon's endurance and length help him avenge that earlier loss.

Lauzon, TKO, Rd. 2



Craig Amos

Miller wins if he takes Lauzon down and controls him. Lauzon wins if he can work a submission or keep it standing. With more options to enter the win column, I'm siding with Lauzon.

Lauzon, TKO, Rd. 2



Paige VanZant vs. Bec Rawlings

Nathan McCarter

An excellent rebound fight for PVZ. Rawlings looked decent in her last bout, but PVZ should still be the solid favorite here. I don't see Rawlings offering up much resistance to the pressure and takedowns PVZ will bring. A 15-minute mugging ensues.

VanZant, unanimous decision



Steven Rondina

Rawlings has the tools and physicality to turn this into a scrap, but what we've seen from PVZ to this point suggests she'll be able to handle a fight like this. Look for her to keep the action on the cage or on the ground long enough to win over the judges.

VanZant, unanimous decision



Sydnie Jones

VanZant took a serious thrashing in her last fight, when Rose Namajunas battered her for almost 23 minutes before sinking in a rear naked choke halfway through the fifth round. But besides that, her natural athleticism and wrestling background have proven effective in the Octagon. Rawlings has never been a strong, consistent fighter, and VanZant seems more promising at this point in her career than Rawlings does, despite her two-fight win streak.

VanZant, TKO, Rd. 2



Scott Harris

I'll go with VanZant for one simple reason: No way they'd book a big star on big Fox against someone they weren't pretty darn sure she could beat. VanZant is no super talent in the cage, but she'll bull rush Rawlings for a rugged win.


VanZant, unanimous decision



Craig Amos

Rawlings deserves credit for beating Seo Hee Ham, but VanZant isn't going to play to the Aussie's strengths, allowing her to establish distance and score points. Instead, she'll get inside and make things chaotic.

VanZant, submission, Rd. 3



Anthony Pettis vs. Charles Oliveira

Nathan McCarter

Sean Shelby did well on the matchmaking. Want to see what Pettis truly brings to 145? Oliveira will test it out. Likewise, we also don't really know which Oliveira will show up. Pettis lands his high-octane kicks to brutalize Oliveira before earning a TKO victory with a swarm of punches.

Pettis, TKO, Rd. 2



Steven Rondina

I'm officially done with regarding Pettis as an elite-level fighter, and you have to be an elite-level fighter to deal with a talent like Charles Oliveira. Oliveira will force this to the ground and will eat up enough minutes to take the scorecards.

Oliveira, unanimous decision



Sydnie Jones

I'm with Steven. I'm not sure how Pettis went from finishing Lauzon, Bendo, Donald Cerrone and Gilbert Melendez to losing decisions to similarly high-level guys, but here we are. And now he's facing Oliveira who, aside from a freak injury loss to Max Holloway, has been tearing it up lately. Maybe Pettis will catch him early and get a knockout, but I think it's more likely Oliveira will tie him up and win, some way, from there. Maybe he'll even be the first fighter to finish Pettis? I believe.

Oliveira, submission, Rd. 3



Scott Harris

Expect a return to form for Pettis. He'll control the center of the cage and fire off big combos on a tough but outgunned Oliveira. Pettis may never recapture championship-level glory, but he'll announce his presence here in a crowded featherweight division.

Pettis, unanimous decision



Craig Amos

I'm baffled by Pettis' loss to Edson Barboza (no knock on Barboza, but that fight was right in Pettis' wheelhouse), but I think he'll find a way to get back into the win column. I don't think it'll take him that long, either.

Pettis, knockout, Rd. 1



Demian Maia vs. Carlos Condit

Nathan McCarter

The stylistic matchup truly favors Condit with his range and diversity, but I am all-in on Maia right now. He'll find ways to get inside and take Condit down, and over the course of the fight it'll sap Condit of his strength. Think of this as a more difficult fight than he just had with Matt Brown, but essentially the same type of fight plays out. Just a little more fight from Condit. Maia gets the tap in the fourth.

Maia, submission, Rd. 4



Steven Rondina

I disagree that this matchup favors Condit. Condit has historically been easy to take down but has made up for it with an active guard...but there ain't no guard that's good enough to deal with Maia. Condit's cardio will give him a huge edge in the championship rounds, but it's a tall task to last that long with Maia.

Maia, submission, Rd. 3



Sydnie Jones

I agree with Steven and Nathan. Obviously, Condit is an elite fighter and can hang with the best. However, Maia has been more consistent recently—even if you consider Condit's decision loss to Robbie Lawler a misjudgment—and ever since Nate Marquardt knocked him out back in 2009, he has avoided eating big shots via recklessness. He'll employ that here and ultimately finish Condit on the ground with his expert BJJ.

Maia, submission, Rd. 4



Scott Harris

"This is a really hard one to call" is an overused phrase in this line of work, but this is a really hard one to call. Can Maia get takedowns on Condit? Can his cardio hold up over a five-round fight? Can Condit's defensive wrestling keep him upright? Can he stick-and-move his way to the deep waters where Maia is presumably exhausted? This could go either way, but here's guessing Condit will outlast the 38-year-old Brazilian.

Condit, unanimous decision



Craig Amos

Yeah, Maia is a wizard on the mat, no doubt about it. But are we (minus Scott) forgetting how good Condit is? He's really good. So good, in fact, that if not for shoddy judging, he'd be the welterweight champion. He'll do what he needs to do to survive on the ground and he'll make Maia pay whenever the two of them are standing.

Condit, TKO, Rd. 3

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC on Fox 21 Predictions
from Top Bet



Welterweight: Demian Maia (EVEN) vs. Carlos Condit (-130)

Why Maia will win:

Maia is a bit one-dimensional, but that one dimension is world-class. Maia is a master Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist, and the best in mixed martial arts today.

If/when he takes his opponent down to the mat, he’s absolutely deadly. Just ask his last three opponents – Neil Magny, Gunnar Nelson, and Matt Brown. He schooled both Magny and Brown on the mat before submitting them via rear-naked choke, and dominated Nelson – another BJJ black belt – en route to a unanimous decision victory. Maia has won five fights in a row overall.

Condit’s aggressiveness has often led to him getting taken down (see: his fights against/losses to Georges St-Pierre, Johny Hendricks, and Tyron Woodley). Maia will have his chances to take Condit down, and he won’t need too many of them to take control of the fight.


Why Condit will win:

Condit is a former title contender who knows how to put people away. 28 out of his 30 career wins have been by stoppage – 15 by knockout and 13 by submission. However, he also has the cardio to go all five rounds if needed. One of his two decisions was a razor thin split decision loss to Robbie Lawler in a welterweight title bout last year.

Condit will have the obvious advantage on the feet over Maia, who has no interest in exchanging strikes with “The Natural Born Killer.” Condit possesses excellent kickboxing, and could utilize his kicks to maintain his distance from Maia. As long as the fight stays on the feet, the ever-creative Condit with be a threat to land a big punch, knee, elbow, or whatever body part, that can knock Maia out.


Prediction: Condit (-130) manages to successfully counter Maia’s submission attempts, and outlasts the Brazilian to grab a split decision win.



Featherweight: Anthony Pettis (-200) vs. Charles Oliveira (+160)

Why Pettis will win:

“Showtime” Pettis is still a very dangerous fighter. With his excellent kickboxing and Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills, the former lightweight champ is a threat to finish the fight either on the feet (seven career KOs) or on the mat (eight submissions).

While his three-fight losing skid may look bad, don’t forget that those losses came to the current and former lightweight champions (Eddie Alvarez and Rafael dos Anjos) as well as the No. 4-ranked lightweight (Edson Barboza).

Furthermore, Pettis was a small lightweight to begin with and should have no problems making 145 lbs. Oliveira, on the other hand, has missed weight three times since dropping down to featherweight.


Why Oliveira will win:

“Do Bronx” is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, and is as deadly as they come on the mat. 13 of his 21 career wins have come via submission, including his last two wins over Myles Jury and Nik Lentz (both guillotines). He’s 5-1 in his last six fights, with his lone loss a freak injury stoppage against Max Holloway.

Pettis has consistently struggled against opponents who apply pressure on him, so Oliveira will have a clear blueprint to follow in beating “Showtime.” Oliveira will also likely be the bigger man than Pettis, and his size advantage should help him get “Showtime” down to the mat where he wants him.


Prediction: Oliveira (+160) overpowers Pettis and claims a big unanimous decision win.



Women’s Strawweight: Paige VanZant (-220) vs. Bec Rawlings (+170)

Why VanZant will win:

Bec Rawlings figures to be an advantageous matchup for VanZant, who is a very aggressive fighter. VanZant utilizes her excellent cardio and relentless wrestling into wearing her opponents out. Look for her to do the same in this fight and neutralize Rawlings’ main strength – her boxing – by engaging her in the clinch early and often.


Why Rawlings will win:

Rawlings is more renowned as a striker, but she’s pretty nifty on the mat as well. Four of her seven career wins have come via submission. If VanZant does decide to take the fight down to the mat, Rawlings will be a threat to get the stoppage. And if the fight is kept standing, she has enough boxing skills to keep her distance against VanZant to eke out a possible decision win.


Prediction: VanZant (-220) overwhelms Rawlings en route to a unanimous decision victory.



Lightweight: Jim Miller (+125) vs. Joe Lauzon (-155)

Why Miller will win:

Well, he did it the first time the two fought. Miller was able to bloody up Lauzon early on in the fight back, and rolled to a pretty convincing unanimous decision win.

Of course, that was four years ago, and Miller has since gone 2-4 in his last six fights. But three of those four losses have been against high-quality opposition. Furthermore, Lauzon’s predominantly standup style matches up well with Miller, who has a bit more power in his punches.


Why Lauzon will win:

Despite his inconsistency in recent fights, Lauzon will come into the bout in much better form than Miller. He’s coming off a terrific Performance of the Night in UFC 200 as he finished Diego Sanchez, who defeated Miller in his previous fight.

Lauzon has always been a well-conditioned fighter, while Miller has slowed considerably as his most recent fights have worn on. The longer the fight goes on, the better Lauzon’s chances of outlasting Miller.


Prediction: Lauzon (-155) gets his revenge and edges Miller via split decision.