UFC Fight Night 88 - Sunday 5/29 Betting Info - Chatter

[NewYorkKnight]

Fight Night 88 Predictions
from Dan Downes - UFC.com



ALJAMAIN STERLING VS. BRYAN CARAWAY

We’ll start on UFC FIGHT PASS with Aljamain Sterling and Bryan Caraway. Undefeated (including 4-0 inside the Octagon) “Funk Master” Sterling fancies himself the next rising star in the 135-pound division. He’ll lend a lot of credence to that belief with a win over Caraway. A WEC vet with a 5-2 record inside the Octagon, Caraway comes off a unanimous decision win over Eddie Wineland.

Both fighters are grapplers first and foremost, but each one’s striking is underrated in different ways. Sterling switches his stance often, but he has tells in each one. He prefers kicking from southpaw and is a far better boxer in orthodox. He’s very purposeful in his attacks and tends to intermittently sprint attacks (think Lyoto Machida) as opposed to producing high volume. Caraway plods on his feet a bit more, but is a better counter striker. Especially when you watch the Wineland fight, he kept pushing forward and wouldn’t let his opponent get comfortable. If he can maintain that same attack, he could neutralize Sterling’s kicks. Ultimately, this boils down to transitions. Sterling is better at each individual discipline, but Caraway strings his grappling to striking and vice versa much better.

Bad news for the Caraway haters, but he takes this one by unanimous decision.



CHRIS CAMOZZI VS. VITOR MIRANDA

We move to middleweight for Chris Camozzi and Vitor Miranda. Camozzi has quietly put together a nice streak, having won four of his last five. His last time out he busted out a barrage of knees to defeat Joe Riggs in 26 seconds. A former TUF Brazil contestant at heavyweight, Vitor Miranda has a three-fight win streak of his own to maintain.

Both fighters are very traditional Muay Thai strikers. It will be interesting to see how they fare in a striking contest because all their recent opponents have been more concerned with taking them down. At distance, Miranda is a more effective kickboxer. He has a lot of pop in his combinations and doesn’t slap his jab like Camozzi. In tight, Camozzi looks to have the advantage. He prefers to clinch opponents, and even though he’s been knocked for a perceived lack of power, he does control opponents against the fence. His reliance on the clinch will be his downfall, though. Miranda’s defense going backward is suspect, but Camozzi usually reaches for the “plum” when he gets opponents retreating. Miranda’s openings come from uppercuts and tight punches, not knees.

Miranda scores enough on the outside and avoids damage inside to take the unanimous decision.



RENAN BARAO VS. JEREMY STEPHENS

That brings us to the featherweight division for Renan Barao and Jeremy Stephens. Barao makes the transition to a new weight class and hopes to have similar success at 145 as he did at 135. He lost his rematch against TJ Dillashaw last July and is on a redemption tour. Stephens looks to extend the former champ’s slide while stopping his own. A powerful puncher with 16 career KOs, he’s dropped three of his last four.

I would be very surprised if this fight went the distance. Both fighters prefer to stand in the pocket and unleash power shots, and it sure seems like each will oblige the other. Much has been made of TJ Dillashaw’s footwork and speed. Those certainly helped him beat Barao, but there was a larger factor – efficiency. Whether it was his jab or overhand right, Dillashaw took the quickest route to contact. Jeremy Stephens could be the hardest hitter in the division, but he’s not the most efficient. Especially as a fight progresses, his punches become wider and he loads up on them. Now, if one of them connects, it’s lights out, but there’s not a lot of subtlety.

Barao does stick his chin out there and isn’t the most accurate striker in his own right (he connects on 34.34% of his significant strikes), but low kicks and left hooks lead him to a second-round TKO.



THOMAS ALMEIDA VS. CODY GARBRANDT

Time for the main event! Thomas Almeida has been dubbed the next Brazilian star. His 4-0 start in the Octagon (three of them finishes) has been a strong indicator thus far. Sixteen of his wins have come in the first round, so he’s not exactly the type of fighter that “feels things out.” Cody Garbrandt is another fighter who is no stranger to KO wins. He’s 3-0 inside the UFC and “No Love” doesn’t fear opponents or tattoo needles.

This is a kickboxer vs. pure boxer type of fight. Almeida keeps a tight Muay Thai guard and counters effectively with his right hand. Garbrandt has a looser guard, but has a bit more explosiveness in his strikes. He counters, but seems more comfortable pushing forward and connecting with big hooks. Almeida shows a lot of patience for a young fighter. He lets opponents come at him in the opening frame and show their cards. He picks up on their timing and then starts to find a home for his strikes. The problem, though, is that patience can often cross the line into inactivity. Letting someone like Garbrandt take the initiative can lead to defeat. This fight will play out very similar to Almeida vs. Pickett.

The Brazilian will get hurt early, but he’ll regain his ground. Then in the second round, he’ll start landing his right hand and close out with some ground-and-pound for the second-round TKO.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC Fight Night 88 Prelim Predictions
from Kamikaze Overdrive




135lbs- #6 Sara McMann (8-3-0) vs #7 Jessica Eye (11-4-0 1NC)

In the Headling fight of the prelims, former title challenger and Olympic Silver Medalist Sara McMann takes on Jessica ‘Evil’ Eye in the Women’s Bantamweight division. McMann has just a single win in her last 4, falling to the next title contender Amanda Nunes, former champion Ronda Rousey, and current champion Miesha Tate. Eye has an identical record over her last 4 with losses to Tate, former title challenger Alexis Davis, and rising contender Juliana Pena.

Both girls are 5’6″ with a 66″ reach, but Eye is 6 years younger than McMann.

Eye is a high volume striker, averaging 4.18 strikes landed per minute, but she has landed more strikes than her opponent just once in her 5-fight UFC run. She put up an impressive 82 strikes in 6:30 of action against Leslie Smith, earning the Doctor stoppage TKO victory. It was just the third knockout win of her career compared to 7 wins by decision. She lacks significant stopping power, relying more on her speed and ability to outwork her foe. She used her hand speed to get the better of Kaufman, but struggled with the Canadian’s power. ‘Evil’ Eye throws a nice jab, has good footwork, and works volume in close range. She found success countering Tate and making her hesitate, routinely landing a counter right hand. Eye doesn’t throw a lot of kicks, which is to her benefit against McMann’s wrestling. Eye’s biggest area of vulnerability has been her counter wrestling. In her three losses, Pena, Davis, and Tate all found success taking Eye down and Jessica offered very little off of her back. Once Tate established her wrestling, Eye’s output drop significantly for fear of being taken down.

Eye formerly competed at 125 pounds, but moved to Bantamweight for her UFC debut. She has struggled at times with the size of her foes, but has stated she has no interested in moving back to the Flyweight if the UFC starts the division.

McMann is a decorated wrestler and not surprisingly her success in MMA has hinged on her ability to take her opponent down. Prior to joining the UFC, she picked up a 4-pack of victories where she compiled 26 takedowns. Continuing that trend, in her 2 UFC wins she landed a combined 7 takedowns and finished Sheila Gaff on the floor with elbows from the crucifix position. By comparison, she completed just a single takedown on 4 attempts during her 3 losses. Once on top she has strong positional control, but as was the case against Lauren Murphy- she needs to be more active with her GNP. On the feet, her striking is very much a work in progress. She did show signs of improvement against Tate, hurting her during an early exchange, but couldn’t build on it. Rousey was able to finish her with a well-placed knee to the mid-section and Nunes did some serious damage prior to getting the submission finish.

Against Murphy, Sara landed 5 takedowns but was badly outworked from the bottom and nearly lost a split decision.

This fight is very much a striker versus grappler showdown. Of the two, McMann is more likely to hold her own on the feet than Eye is to get the better of Sara on the floor. If McMann is to have any success while vertical, she still needs to establish the threat of her takedowns to slow Eye’s forward pressure. If Eye wants to remain upright, she needs to use her footwork, keep active, and anticipate the shot and get her hips back. That is going to be easier said than done. Eye lacks the type of power needed to back Sara off and keep her from pursuing the takedown. Once Sara gets her hands on Eye, she should have no problem taking her down and keeping her down. Both girls have struggled with elite level competition, but McMann possesses the needed skill set to replicate the issues that Eye has had during her current skid- my


prediction is Sara McMann to defeat Jessica Eye by Decision.




155lbs- Abel Trujillo (14-6-0 1NC) vs Jordan Rinaldi (12-4-0)

The vicious Abel ‘Killa’ Trujillo takes on short-notice replacement Jordan ‘All Day’ Rinaldi in the Lightweight division. Rinaldi has picked up 5-straight wins including a submission of UFC vet Clay Harvison- he has lost to the likes of James Moontasri and Brian Ortega, but does hold a win over Dennis Bermudez early in his career. Trujillo is coming off of a win over Tony Sims and has just one official loss in his last 5-fights after the Gleison Tibau loss was overturned.

Rinaldi is replacing Carlos Diego Ferreira on a little less than 2-weeks’ notice. He is 2 inches taller than Trujillo and will have a 1″ reach advantage.

Trujillo is a berzerker, combining a relentless pace with brutal finishing power. He has stopped 5 foes by knockout and 4 more by submission. Abel submitted Tony Sims via guillotine and knocked out both Jamie Varner and Roger Bowling. Trujillo is a former NAIA wrestler and can do some serious damage on the mat generating massive power from top position. He has averaged 2.41 takedowns per fight, completing just over 1 of every 2 attempts. He landed 5 takedowns in his win over Roger Bowling and scored a pair in the early action against Ferguson. His defensive work on the mat is a major concern as he has lost a number of fights against superior ground fighters- including 3 submission losses and an overturned defeat against Tibau.

His aggressive style has been successfully overwhelming against some adversaries, but it has also cost him. After the early exchanges against Ferguson, he slowed noticeably prior to getting finished.

The UFC debutant has a submission heavy win total, winning 7-times by tap out compared to a single knockout victory and 4 decision wins. He has just 4 opening round stoppages. When looking to put his foe on the ground he will shoot a strong power double and has decent top control. He has a tendency to shoot from distance, which can catch his opponent off guard, but against higher level opposition it can also make his shot easier to defend. His striking is decent, working together a solid 1-2 with kicks and strikes to the body. He will remain active when attacking, but tends to let his chin rise up and got knocked out cold with a well-timed uppercut from Moontasri.

Rinaldi faltered in his bid to join the TUF Live season, submitting to Joe Proctor in the qualifying round.

There are 2 key areas where Trujillo has struggled that Rinaldi could capitalize on. If Rinaldi can work his ground game and drag Trujillo to the ground with consistency, it will open the door for him to capitalize on Abel as he slows down later in the fight. That being said, the two-week notice and debut factor could compromise the physical capabilities of Rinaldi that have helped him to succeed in longer fights. Trujillo’s physically imposing style can be a lot to handle and while top level grapplers/wrestlers have had success fending off his takedowns and taking him down- ‘All Day’ is not there.When Rinaldi shoots unsuccessfully, look for Trujillo to turn the position in his favour with hard elbows and knees along the cage. On the feet, Abel should find similar success inflicting damage-


my prediction is Abel Trujillo to defeat Jordan Rinaldi by TKO




185lbs- Jake Collier (9-2-0) vs Alberto Uda (9-0-0)

In the Middleweight division, Jake ‘The Prototype’ Collier’s spot on the roster is on the line when he fights promotional neophyte Alberto Uda. Uda is undefeated and is coming off of a win over former Octagon competitor Thiago Perpetuo. Collier lost by TKO to Dong Yi Yang following a split decision win over Ricardo Abreu- he is 1-2 inside the Octagon.

Both men are 6’3″ and Collier is 4 years younger. The Brazilian is replacing Keith Berish on roughly 2-months’ notice.

Collier dominated the early action against Vitor Miranda, but got cracked with a brutal right high kick in the final seconds of the first round leading to the stoppage. He showed all around improvements in his second fight, getting the better of the striking exchanges and limiting his foe’s success on the floor. He builds the majority of his offense off a strong left jab followed by a heavy right hand, hard leg and body kicks, and a stiff front kick. He strikes long, getting good extension on his punches, but he tends to leave his head exposed when throwing wide swinging hooks. Jake dropped Yang with a well-timed right hand, but struggled to land with consistency during the majority of the exchanges. While he looks to push a hefty pace, he tends to be a little awkward and disjointed in his attack.

Collier comes from a wrestling background and controlled the action early against Miranda on the floor, nearly submitting him. He had mixed results attempting to take Yang down and when he went for a pair of subs in round 2 he was unable to finish and got smashed with GNP leading to the stoppage.

Uda has only gone the distance once in his career, compared to 4 opening round finishes. He has split his finishes evenly between knockouts and submission, with 3 of his last 4 victories coming via TKO. He comes from a Muay Thai background and boasts a very strong clinch attack. He took out Perpetuo with a couple of hard knees from the Thai plumb and does his best work at short range letting go with elbows and quick punches. The Brazilian’s distance striking isn’t quite as complete, throwing a decent 1-2 and serviceable kicks up and down the body. When defending TDAs, he’s pretty good at remaining vertical and sucking his opponent into the clinch where he can transition to offense. His top game isn’t anything to write home about, but he is quite capable of attacking off his back. Alberto possesses a strong guard and submitted capable submission fighter Thiago Rela with a slick triangle-armbar combination.

Uda has face a pretty good level of regional opposition with his last 3 opponents holding a combined 31-17 mark. He picked up an early career victory over UFC vet Rick ‘Monstro’.

This might not be the prettiest of fights, but it should be entertaining for however long it lasts. Collier doesn’t excel in any one specific area and for the most part he is a willing combatant wherever the fight transpires. His readiness to wrestling and lack of a dominant takedown game is going to get him in trouble. As he closes the distance looking to take Uda down, the Brazilian will jam him up with his clinch game and then start to unload with short range strikes. If they do hit the mat with Jake on top, the aggressive guard play of Alberto will prevent him from settling in and dissuade him from future TDAs. The pair of knockout losses that Collier has suffered in the UFC suggest he won’t be ablet to withstand Uda’s attack once he starts to connect-


my prediction Alberto Uda to defeat Jake Collier by TKO.



155lbs- Erik Koch (14-4-0) vs Shane Campbell (12-4-0)

In the Lightweight division, Erik ‘New Breed’ Koch returns to action after a prolonged layoff to meet tough Canadian ‘Shaolin’ Shane Campbell. Koch is coming off TKO loss to Daron Cruickshank which came after a win over Rafaello Oliveira- he is 1-3 in his last 4 fights. Campbell dropped a hard-fought decision to James Krause moving his Octagon record to 1-2.

Koch has been out of action for a little over 24 months while Campbell has fought 5-times in that span. The Canadian is 2 inches taller and will have a slight 1″ reach advantage. Koch is the younger man by a year.

‘Shaolin’ comes from a kickboxing background where he went 62-9 with 13 knockouts. He has 5 knockouts in his MMA career, including his eye-catching body kick/ Hadouken stoppage at WSOF 18. Prior to his decision win over Elias Silverio, he had recorded his last 3 wins by knockout. Campbell has averaged 4.33 SLpM, including a UFC-high 82 significant strikes against Krause. Against Makdessi, Campbell was busting up his lead leg and bloodied his nose with some slick combinations. He is very adept at landing strikes in between his opponent’s offense, attacking in transition and piling up significant volume. Shane can work both at distance and in close with short punches, kicks, knees, and elbows. Despite his striking background, he has a decent grappling game. His TDD is strong, and he is quite adept at scrambling and/or countering his way out of a bad spots.

Campbell is a BJJ Purple belt with a pair of submission wins. He survived an early sub attempt from Krause and has landed 4 takedowns over his last 2 fights.

Koch is also BJJ Purple belt and Tae Kwon Do Black belt. He has finished 4 wins by knockout and 7 by submission, including a brutal KO finish of current Bantamweight contender Raphael Assuncao. Koch offers a nice kicking variety in his attack and has decent pop in his hands. From a volume standpoint, he isn’t an overwhelming fighter averaging 2.38 SLpM compared to 2.34 SApM. He has been out-landed in 3 of his last 4 fights by a count of 110 to 52. On the mat, he is a capable grappler, but he has had issues with both creating separation in the clinch and defending takedowns. Jonathan Brookins smothered him along the cage and Poirier and Lamas both had success taking him down. His chin is also a point of concern, with a pair of knockout losses to Cruickshank and Ricardo Lamas, along with a getting knocked down by Dustin Poirier.

Since a pair of title fights with Jose Aldo were called off, Koch has gone 1-3 and struggled to find the success that lead him to getting paired with the champion.

Koch has been on the shelf for a long time which can be an issue, especially in the opening round. His lack of striking volume and questionable chin are two considerable vulnerabilities against a capable pressure striker like Campbell. If Koch is unable to drag him to the ground with consistency, he is going to struggle to keep up on the feet. Look for Campbell to simply out work his American counterpart at distance and on the inside along with potentially finding some success with his own takedowns as the impact of the striking piles up-


my prediction is Shane Campbell to defeat Erik Koch by TKO




135lbs- #4 Aljamain Sterling (12-0-0) vs #8 Bryan Caraway (20-8-0)

In the Bantamweight division, ‘The Funk Master’ Aljamain Sterling makes his first appearance since signing his new contract when he takes on ‘Mr. Tate’ Bryan ‘Kid Lightning’ Caraway. Sterling is still undefeated with impressive wins over Johnny Eduardo, Takeya Mizugaki, and Hugo Viana. Caraway defeated former WEC champion Eddie Wineland in his last fight and is 6-2 over his last 8 outings.

Caraway, who hasn’t fought in 10-months, is an inch taller than Sterling, but will be at a 3″ reach disadvantage. Sterling is the younger man by 5 years.

A grappling specialist, Caraway has recorded 17 wins by submission. He has a lethal back mount, with 11 wins coming by rear-naked choke. ‘Kid Lightning’ has been submitted twice, both losses occurred at a heavier weight class, but he is a dismal 3-5 in bouts not ending in a submission and has dropped 4 of his last 6 decisions. Over his UFC/WEC career, he has averaged 2.8 takedowns per fight at a 33% completion rate while defending 81% of his opponents’ TDAs. Over his 4 UFC victories, he has dominated the takedown battle by a count of 11-2 compared to a much closer 4-2 total (still favouring BC) in his 2 defeats. Caraway has a suffocating top game, taking opponents down and working them over on the floor until they give up a submission or he grinds out a decision. He augments his ground attack with a decent striking repertoire, leading with his right hand and throwing primarily hooks and short punches in the clinch.

Against Wineland, Caraway went 0-12 on his takedowns but out-struck Eddie by a count of 61-52. Conversely, he had been out-struck by a count of 142-76 in his 2 previous fights where he struggled to implement his wrestling.

Sterling enters the fight with his focus on a potential shot at the title in the not too distance future. A former NCAA Division 3 wrestler, Aljamain has finished 9 opponents and 6 of his last 7. He has just a pair of opening round stoppages in his last 10 outings. ‘The Funk Master’ is a measured fighter, gauging his opponent and breaking them down methodically before looking for a finish. Limiting his opponents to a minute 0.99 SLpM, Sterling currently carries a +2.25 striking exchange rate. Sterling offers an ever expanding striking arsenal. Look for his to use long strikes; mixing between straight punches and variety of kicks. Against Eduardo, he mitigated the damage absorbed at distance until he was able to get on the inside and put him on the mat. Once on the floor, he nullified the Brazilian’s offense, cut through his guard quickly, and eventually locked up the power guillotine in round 2.

Sterling was taken down 4 times on just 6 attempts in his debut against Cody Gibson. Since the Gibson fight, his last 3 opponents have focussed very little on putting Sterling on his backside.

Caraway continues to struggle to gain recognition, despite his success. Even though he was able to beat Wineland without a takedown, he is still a specialist that relies heavily on his takedown game to separate him from the opposition. Sterling hasn’t had to deal with a grappling-centric fighter like Caraway, but he possesses the type of distance striking and clinch game to shut him out in the takedown department. Whether Sterling is able to bring his own ground game to the forefront or simply keep the fight vertical- he is the superior striker. Similar to with his takedown game, Caraway will have limited success closing the gap when striking to land with consistency. Sterling will work on the outside, picking Bryan apart, and when Caraway starts to get a little reckless trying to close the distance Sterling will change levels and put him on his back-


my prediction is Aljamain Sterling to defeat Bryan Caraway by decision.



265lbs- Chris De La Rocha (4-1-0) vs Adam Milstead (7-1-0)

To kick off the night’s action, a pair of Heavyweights collide as UFC sophomore Chri s De La Rocha takes on promotional newcomer Adam ‘The Prototype’ Milstead. De La Rocha is coming off his first pro loss in his UFC debut, lasting just 48 seconds against Daniel Omielanczuk. Milstead lost his pro debut back in 2011, but has picked up 7-straight wins since, with his last 3 victims totalling a 34-35 combined record.

Both men stand 6’3″, but De La Rocha will have a 3″ reach advantage and should be close to 10 pounds heavier. Milstead is the younger man by 8 years.

Milstead is a well-built heavyweight, that his compiled a decent regional record on route to getting the call to the UFC. Of his 7 wins, 5 came via knockout along with a pair of submissions. He has fought outside of the opening round just twice, with 4 wins ending before the 120-second mark. The debut loss he suffered was by 1st round KO. Milstead is a striker, working a power boxing attack. His best work comes in the pocket where he will willingly sit down and sling heavy leather. He can work at distance, but his primary inclination is to close the distance when attacking. In one of his last pre-UFC bouts, he did a good job of cutting off the cage and battering his opponent with combinations. He finished the fight with a big straight right hand, that he will set up with his left hook.

‘The Prototype’ isn’t an overwhelming wrestler, but he will look for a takedown if the situation presents itself.

De La Rocha is still relatively new to MMA despite his age. His UFC debut didn’t do much to up his depth of experience. He was wobbled after getting plugged with an opening short left hand and struggled to regain his composure. Chris was eventually finished by a right hook. Against DJ Linderman, he stood in pocket and exchanged heavy leather, eventually knocking him out. Normally, his focus is to put his opponent on the mat and look for a combination of ground and pound and submissions. He has a pair of sub wins on his record, finishing all 4 of his victories- 3 in the opening round. His wrestling is a work in progress, as he relies heavily on is ability to out-muscle and force his foe to the mat.

De La Rocha took his debut fight on short notice, replacing Konstantin Erokhin on just over 2 weeks notice.

The knockout loss suffered by De La Rocha made him just the 3rd the man that Omielanczuk finished with strikes in 25-fights. It wasn’t an overly powerful punch that hurt him and as a result, it brings into the question the durability of the Washington native. Milstead is the more refined fighter and should be good enough defensively to fend off the takedown attempts of his foe, forcing him to exchange. Milstead’s speed and more refined punching attack will be too much for De La Rocha to handle once the leather starts to let loose. When Heavyweight starts to exchange, it only takes one big connection to turn the fight on its head, Milstead is the more likely to land that strike-


my prediction is Adam Milstead to defeat Chris De La Rocha by TKO

 

[NewYorkKnight]

The Complete Guide to UFC Fight Night 88
By Patrick Wyman , MMA Senior Analyst - Bleacher Report



Fight Pass Prelims

Chris de la Rocha (4-1; 0-1 UFC) vs. Adam Milstead (7-1; 0-0 UFC)

Bottom-tier heavyweights open the card as Washington's de la Rocha takes on the debuting Milstead. De la Rocha lost his debut against Daniel Omielanczuk last July in Glasgow, while Pittsburgh's Milstead has compiled a seven-fight winning streak on the regional scene.

Milstead is a powerful and athletic fighter who likes to pressure. He has a crisp jab and throws consistent combinations, particularly on the counter, and packs real power in all his shots. Wrestling is a solid secondary skill set. De la Rocha likewise prefers to box, throwing a solid 1-2 and operating at a quick pace.

Prediction: Both fighters prefer to strike and like to be at punching distance, but Milstead is more powerful and athletically gifted. Milstead knocks out de la Rocha in the first round.



Aljamain Sterling (12-0; 4-0 UFC) vs. Bryan Caraway (20-7; 5-2 UFC)

Sterling, one of the most promising young fighters in the UFC, takes one more step up the ladder against the veteran Caraway. Sterling recently signed a new contract with the UFC after taking a stab at free agency, turning a four-fight winning streak in the promotion into a substantial new payday. The 26-year-old defeated Johnny Eduardo in December to cap that run with a victory over a top 10 opponent.

The 31-year-old Caraway has only fought infrequently in the UFC, but he's been successful against quality opposition. He rebounded from a loss to Raphael Assuncao by taking a decision over Eddie Wineland last July.

Sterling, a native of New York, is the A-side of this matchup. He's the young fighter on the cusp of stardom and the one in whom the UFC just made a substantial new investment. If Sterling wins, he'll likely find himself in a top-contender matchup.

The older fighter is rugged, durable and well-rounded. Caraway is a functional striker with decent combinations, a consistent jab and surprising power, though his defense isn't great.

The real core of Caraway's game is his wrestling and grappling. He isn't an explosive finisher on takedowns, but once he gets ahold of his opponent, the Washington native is relentless. Takedown chains help him push his opponent against the fence, and if he can't finish his shot he's happy to grind in the clinch against the cage.

Once he gets the fight to the mat, Caraway shines in transitions. He excels at finding chokes in scrambles and especially getting to the back, where his rear-naked choke is outstanding.

Sterling is a smart fighter with great instincts in transition. He likes to use rangy kicks and jabs at range, sticking and moving while setting a long range. Eventually, his opponent has to telegraph a strike to come forward or his back hits the fence, and when either of those things happen, Sterling changes levels and shoots for an explosive takedown.

The New Yorker puts together crisp, relentless chains of singles, doubles and trips. Once the fight hits the mat, he throws monstrous ground strikes with great posture from the top while hunting for a topside submission. If his opponent tries to scramble, Sterling lets him move and then looks for a front headlock choke—guillotines are a specialty—or spins around to the back with lightning speed.

It's a dangerous, efficient and intelligent game that Sterling plays perfectly. He's not a confident boxer and doesn't throw a great volume of strikes, but that has yet to work against him.

Prediction: Both fighters will probably be happy to engage in a grinding war of attrition that consists of back-and-forth takedowns and scrambles. Caraway and Sterling are somewhat similar in their strengths, but Sterling is much faster, more athletic and more dynamic. Sterling takes a close, hard-fought decision.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Fox Sports 1 Prelims


Erik Koch (14-4; 3-3 UFC) vs. Shane Campbell (12-4; 1-2 UFC)

Lightweight strikers meet in a great matchup as former top prospect Koch takes on Canadian kickboxer Campbell. Koch, who was once on deck to fight Jose Aldo for the featherweight belt, has not fought in more than two years, when Daron Cruickshank knocked him out. Campbell dropped a decision to James Krause in February after defeating Elias Silverio.

Campbell has a legitimate background in kickboxing and muay thai. He cracks away with high-output punch-kick combinations at range and does nasty work in the clinch with knees and elbows. The occasional takedown and period of top control gives him some variety, but he's only an average defensive wrestler.

Koch is mostly a striker himself, and the rangy (5'10"), athletic southpaw throws a vicious left kick and straight left. He's an excellent defensive wrestler and owns a dangerous guard as well. The problem is output. On the feet, he's often content to circle and feint without doing much of anything.

Prediction: Koch is more athletic and powerful, but Campbell has a deeper bag of tricks and works at a much quicker pace. The Canadian takes a decision.



Jake Collier (9-3; 1-2 UFC) vs. Alberto Uda (9-0; 0-0 UFC)

The American Collier faces a release from the UFC with two losses in his last three and badly needs a win here. He faces Brazilian prospect Uda, who makes his debut with an undefeated record.

Collier is well rounded and workmanlike. He likes to strike with a rangy jab and kicking game, and works at a quick pace. Good takedown defense keeps him on the feet and he hits an occasional takedown for variety. Uda is a monster in the clinch and a dangerous grappler, but isn't much of a wrestler and isn't especially sharp at range despite his background in muay thai.

Prediction: Collier is a better wrestler and more reliable at range, while Uda is better in the clinch and on the mat. It's close, but the pick is Uda by knockout in the second round.




Abel Trujillo (14-6, 1 N/C; 5-2, 1 N/C UFC) vs. Jordan Rinaldi (12-4; 0-0 UFC)

Former top prospect Rinaldi steps up on short notice to replace Carlos Diego Ferreira, who was flagged for a potential anti-doping violation, against Trujillo. Rinaldi has won five in a row in various regional organizations, while Trujillo defeated Tony Sims in January and had a loss to Gleison Tibau in November overturned due to his opponent's doping violation.

Rinaldi is well-rounded and does a good job of blending his strikes with his wrestling. He has a nose for the submission on the mat and can hit a variety of finishers. Speed, power and explosiveness define Trujillo's game. He likes forward-moving combinations of power punches, high-amplitude takedowns and vicious chokes.

Prediction: This is Trujillo's fight to lose; he's the better wrestler and more dangerous striker. Trujillo knocks Rinaldi out in the second round.




Sara McMann (8-3; 2-3 UFC) vs. Jessica Eye (11-4, 1 N/C; 1-3, 1 N/C UFC)

Former title contender McMann tries desperately to get back on track following a two-fight losing streak and three losses in her last four. McMann was undefeated heading into her February 2014 title bout with Ronda Rousey, but has since won only one fight, a contentious decision over Lauren Murphy. Eye, too, is in need of a win with three losses in her last four. Miesha Tate and Julianna Pena both defeated Eye in her last two outings.

Eye is a striker by preference. She likes to stick and move behind her long jab and then occasionally sit down on a cross. She's a competent defensive wrestler but mostly relies on her command of distance and angles.

McMann was an Olympic silver medalist in wrestling, and that's still her bread and butter. An exceptional athlete with great speed and power, she throws one strike at a time before trying for takedowns, but isn't particularly crafty on the feet and doesn't throw much volume.

Prediction: This is a classic striker-wrestler matchup. If McMann can work takedowns, she wins; if Eye can keep it at range, she wins. The issue here is Eye's tendency to make questionable in-fight decisions, and that should tilt the balance slightly in McMann's favor. The Olympian takes a decision.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Fox Sports 1 Main Card



Paul Felder (11-2; 3-2 UFC) vs. Josh Burkman (28-12, 1 N/C; 6-7, 1 N/C UFC)

Philadelphia's Felder takes on Utah's Burkman in a well-matched lightweight scrap. Felder lost two in a row against Edson Barboza and Ross Pearson, but rebounded by choking out Daron Cruickshank in January. Burkman was a welterweight for nearly the entirety of his career, but took a decision from K.J. Noons in his lightweight debut in February. That win snapped a two-fight losing streak.

Felder is a striker who mixes sound technique with a heavy dose of flash. He likes to pressure behind a crisp jab and cracking round kicks. When he works his way into the pocket, his feints draw out a response from the opponent, which Felder then counters with punches after moving his head to avoid the strike. Spinning backfists, spinning back kicks and wheel kicks add some unpredictability at range.

Stepping knees and uppercuts help to dissuade opponents from shooting takedowns, and if they get in on his hips Felder defends with excellent technique. He punishes opponents for trying to take him down with elbows and short punches as he defends. The occasional shot takedown of his own adds some variety, but those shots are mostly a change of pace.

Burkman also likes to strike. He switches stances fluidly, chopping away with heavy kicks to the legs and body at range before leaping in with punching combinations. Counterpunching is the best aspect of his game, particularly with left and right hooks in the pocket, where his durability, chin and power make him particularly dangerous.

Wrestling is another strong suit. Burkman defends takedowns well and has a nice arsenal of singles and especially doubles when the mood strikes. His ground strikes pack real power and he excels at finding submissions in transition, especially the guillotine.

Prediction

While the former welterweight Burkman will have a bit of a size advantage to go along with his edge in power, Felder is the cleaner striker. He works faster, is more defensively sound and has more options at range.

There's always the chance that Felder will slip into Burkman's slower pace—mental lapses of that kind have been a problem for Felder before—but if he doesn't, Felder should take a clear decision.




Jorge Masvidal (29-10; 6-3 UFC) vs. Lorenz Larkin (16-5, 1 N/C; 3-5 UFC)

The string of outstanding matchmaking continues as the veteran Masvidal takes on Larkin in a matchup of slick strikers. While Larkin's 3-5 record in the UFC looks superficially underwhelming, several of those have been close, including a loss to Albert Tumenov in January that snapped a two-fight winning streak.

Masvidal has been a professional for 13 years, but is still going strong. He dropped a late-notice decision to Benson Henderson last November after knocking out Cezar Ferreira in his UFC welterweight debut.

The winner won't quite be a contender in the stacked welterweight division, but will be a known action fighter with the potential for fights with big-name opponents.

Larkin is one of the fastest fighters in the division and packs tremendous power in his punches and especially his kicks. He's a pure striker, and a dangerous one who has made real improvements to his footwork and combination striking in recent years.

Larkin is one of the fastest fighters in the division and packs tremendous power in his punches and especially his kicks. He's a pure striker, and a dangerous one who has made real improvements to his footwork and combination striking in recent years.

Sticking and moving at range is Larkin's preferred game. He works behind a crisp jab and slices away at his opponent's legs and body with round and front kicks, using those long strikes to set his preferred distance. Once at range, he has the space to move freely in the middle of the cage and to commit to forward-moving blitzes that meld vicious punches and kicks in long, creative combinations.

The occasional flying knee and spinning kick add some variety, and every shot has the power to finish the fight.

Good takedown defense, particularly since moving down to welterweight, allows Larkin to dictate the kind of striking matchup he prefers. His former tendency of getting pinned against the fence in the clinch has been less of an issue as well, and he has added sharp elbows and knees in close quarters. Grappling isn't his strongest suit, but he's competent and can survive on the mat if necessary.

On the down side, Larkin occasionally falls into periods of inactivity where he doesn't throw much, and his lack of secondary options can be an issue. He's a striker, plain and simple, and that's all his opponents really need to worry about.

Masvidal too prefers to strike, though he has added additional tools over the years and is no longer a one-dimensional fighter. Crisp boxing is the basis of his game, and he works behind a sharp jab that he uses both to score and to measure the distance for his laser-straight right cross. A smooth left hook, particularly as a counter, completes his meat-and-potatoes approach.

Round kicks at all levels and the occasional spinning kick serve as a strong complement to his boxing, but for the most part Masvidal is a boxer.

Outstanding takedown defense—some of the best in the division—allows Masvidal to keep it standing. He's a surprisingly crafty offensive wrestler as well with a nice arsenal of trips and single-legs. His timing is excellent and he has a gift for melding striking and wrestling.

On the mat, Masvidal mostly looks to control and defend if taken down, but he has developed an active and dangerous front headlock game in transition in recent years.

There's no denying the basic technical soundness of Masvidal's game, and he's exceptionally efficient with both his strikes and his takedowns. The other side of that is occasional periods of inactivity and a tendency to give away rounds he should otherwise win.

Prediction

This is a tough fight to call. Larkin is faster and has a more diverse striking arsenal but Masvidal is sharper with his hands and has the offensive wrestling game to provide another dimension for Larkin to worry about. Masvidal should pressure, and if he can pull the trigger when he backs Larkin to the fence, he should take a decision.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Chris Camozzi (23-10; 8-7 UFC) vs. Vitor Miranda (12-4; 3-1 UFC)

Mid-tier 185-pounders meet in an excellent matchup. Camozzi has now won two in a row after dropping five consecutive UFC appearances, defeating Joe Riggs and Tom Watson in February and August respectively. Miranda was a finalist on The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 3, and has won three in a row since losing the show to Antonio Carlos Jr. All three of those wins have been finishes.

The winner won't be in line for a title shot but will be ready for a matchup with a top-15 opponent.

Camozzi prefers to strike. The rangy southpaw probes with his jab and then cracks away with hard low and middle kicks at range, sticking in the straight left and right hook from time to time. Pace is a strong suit and Camozzi drops a steady stream of strikes whenever given the space to operate in the middle of the cage.

If his opponent pressures, Camozzi is happy to dive into the clinch. His 6'2" frame and long arms give him great leverage inside, and he moves fluidly from the double-collar tie to underhooks and frames. His knees are sharp and dangerous and he mixes in the occasional elbow for good measure.

While only an average defensive wrestler, Camozzi isn't easy to hold down and he's a competent grappler. He rarely shoots for takedowns, though.

Miranda is likewise a striker. The Brazilian has a legitimate pedigree as a professional kickboxer and competed in K-1's regional tournaments. That background shows up clearly in his crisp, technical striking repertoire.

The Brazilian operates behind a crisp jab that he mixes up to the body and head and throws smooth combinations at all levels. The real strength of his game is his kicks, which are sharp and well-timed. Miranda's head kicks in particular are dangerous and he never telegraphs them. Consistent movement and crisp footwork help keep him away from the fence and in open space where he prefers to be.

The clinch is a strong secondary area for Miranda. As befits a former professional kickboxer, his knees from the double-collar tie are sharp and capable of finishing the fight. It's hard to pin him against the fence for long, as he excels at breaking off and creating space.

Early in his career, Miranda struggled to defend takedowns, but he has markedly improved his technique in recent outings, particularly against the fence. He isn't an ace grappler, but he can defend from his back and is surprisingly dangerous from top position with his strikes.


Prediction

As the betting odds suggest, the balance of the matchup favors Miranda. Camozzi is a striker who likes to operate at range and in the clinch, precisely the areas that Miranda favors, and the Brazilian is more technically sound and more experienced there. The American doesn't have the kind of wrestling game that has troubled Miranda in the past, either. The pick is Miranda by decision.




Rick Story (18-8; 11-6 UFC) vs. Tarec Saffiedine (16-4; 2-1 UFC)

A pair of ranked welterweights meet in an excellent matchup. Washington's Story has been out of action since a dominant decision win over Gunnar Nelson in October 2014, a shellacking that cemented him as one of the division's elite fighters. Saffiedine returned from a layoff of more than a year this past January, taking a decision over Jake Ellenberger.

Story is ranked tenth and Saffiedine eleventh in the division, so the winner will be primed to face one of the very best at 170 pounds in his next outing.

Saffiedine is a striker by trade, and more specifically a pure outside fighter. He operates equally well from both stances, and is effectively ambidextrous: In both orthodox and southpaw he uses mostly jabs, round kicks and front kicks, and then switches stances to create more space to escape after he throws. Saffiedine wants nothing to do with the pocket or exchanges, and rarely even sits down on a straight or hook.

With that said, Saffiedine is very good at what he does. He likes to flash the jab, cut an angle and then drop a cracking low kick before exiting on a different angle. It's difficult to catch him with counters, and his footwork is more than good enough to keep him away from the fence in open space. Pace and volume are strong suits, and given the chance Saffiedine will chew up his opponent's lead leg.

That's the extent of the Belgian's game. He's strong in the clinch and throws sharp knees, but mostly looks to break off and reestablish his preferred range. Above-average takedown defense keeps him standing and he's a competent defensive grappler.

Story is a bull of a fighter. The southpaw keeps his chin tucked and guard high as he wades forward behind his right jab and potent low kicks, and when he gets into the pocket he unleashes powerful head-body combinations of punches. His pressure footwork is technically sound and he excels at pinning his opponent against the fence.

While he does good work at range and is perfectly capable of winning fights as a striker, Story does his best work in the clinch, where he can put his absurd strength to good use. He uses constant head pressure and an underhook to hold his opponent against the fence and then unloads punches and knees for minutes at a time.

The former collegiate wrestler is a skilled takedown artist who prefers chains of singles and doubles and times his entries well. He has occasionally struggled to defend takedowns, but appears to have fixed that issue in recent fights.

On the mat, Story mostly looks to control. He packs good power in his ground strikes, maintains a heavy base and has a basic understanding of submissions.


Prediction

As the betting odds indicate, this is an even-money fight. Story's long absence is a concern, but Saffiedine looked a bit slower and less sure of himself in his return to action last January than he had beforehand as well.

Unless Story's injury has taken a serious toll on him, this fight favors him slightly. Saffiedine will look to stick him at the end of his jabs and kicks, while Story try to take that space away and force Saffiedine to fight in the pocket and the clinch. The fight comes down to who is able to impose their game more often.

That balance slightly favors Story. He's a technically sound and durable pressure fighter and should be able to wade through Saffiedine's rangy strikes. Story takes a decision.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Renan Barao (33-3, 1 N/C; 8-2 UFC) vs. Jeremy Stephens (24-12; 11-11 UFC)

Barao moves up to 145 pounds following the loss of his title and a fruitless bid to reclaim it against T.J. Dillashaw. He meets former lightweight Jeremy Stephens in what should be an exciting and intriguing stylistic matchup.

Prior to his loss to Dillashaw two years ago, Barao had not lost a fight in more than nine years. Dillashaw dismantled him, however, and then did so again last July. In the interim, Barao scored a submission win over Mitch Gagnon. With Dillashaw ahead of him in the rankings and a truly brutal weight cut to bantamweight, Barao makes a smart move in trying his luck at featherweight.

Stephens has been up and down throughout his UFC career. He went 3-0 to start his run at 145 pounds, but has fallen to 1-3 in his last four. A pair of defeats against Cub Swanson and Charles Oliveira preceded a dramatic win over Dennis Bermudez at UFC 189 last July, but Stephens fell short against Max Holloway in December.

The winner won't be in line for a title shot, but will easily be a top-10 featherweight and in the right position to take big fights with the name opponents at 145 pounds.

Stephens is a pure puncher. He's blessed with great speed, athleticism and crushing power in his hands, and everything in his game is built around utilizing those physical gifts.

The 22-fight UFC veteran is crafty and dangerous. He doesn't throw much, but uses kicks and the occasional jab to gauge the distance and score at range. As he's aged, Stephens has come to rely more and more heavily on counters, which suit his veteran's sense of timing and willingness to stand his ground and throw. He throws fewer single shots these days and more combinations, mixing things up to the head and body.

While he can finish the fight at any time and has a great sense for when and how to land the finishing shot, Stephens is vulnerable to being outscored, and he often waits on his opponent for the sake of placing the perfect counter. He's hittable, too, and defense has never been his strong suit.

The occasional takedown adds some variety to Stephens' game, and he's more than willing to grind away in the clinch to eat up time. Strong takedown defense generally keeps him standing. Stephens rarely looks to grapple, but he's competent from top position and carries his power to the floor.

Barao is diverse and dangerous everywhere, and it wasn't long ago that he was considered one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport.

While not especially tall at 5'6", Barao fights long behind a crisp jab and potent kicking game. His low kicks are consistent and powerful, and he throws the front and push kicks regularly as well. Given his choice, Barao would like to keep his opponent at this distance and score. When his opponent pressures, however, Barao is happy to plant his feet and throw counter combinations in the pocket.

Pace is a strong suit for Barao, though he couldn't keep up with Dillashaw's absurd work rate in their two matchups. He's a decent defensive fighter as well, though he struggles a bit in the pocket.

Although he's mostly been a striker in the UFC, that might be the weakest part of Barao's game. His takedown defense is impenetrable, without exaggeration some of the best in MMA, and offensively he hits beautiful trips and throws in the clinch.

A jiu-jitsu black belt under Andre Pederneiras, Barao is an exceptional grappler. He has a gift for getting to the back in transition, and on top he is impossible to shake off. His passes are smooth and topside submissions such as armbars, kimuras and arm-triangle chokes are specialties.


Prediction

This is an interesting fight. Stephens will have a substantial height advantage, standing 5'9" to Barao's 5'6", and likely an edge in weight as well. Not cutting as much weight should negate some of the cardio issues Barao has had in the past, though, and his ability to fight long should make up for some of that height gap.

The greater concern is how hittable Barao was in his fights with Dillashaw. If Stephens places one of his monstrous punches on Barao's chin, the Brazilian is going to sleep. Conversely, Barao was relatively fast at 135, and he should be faster at featherweight. Can Stephens keep up?

While Stephens could easily land a knockout punch and will succeed in landing strikes, Barao's greater volume and ability to work takedowns and top control should be the difference. Barao takes a decision.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Thomas Almeida (20-0; 4-0 UFC) vs. Cody Garbrandt (8-0; 3-0 UFC)

Two of the most promising young fighters in the UFC meet in a barnburner of a matchup.

Brazil's Almeida has been a wrecking machine since his debut in MMA, finishing 19 of 20 fights and three of four in the UFC. The 24-year-old has finished his last three opponents by strikes inside six minutes, most recently knocking out Brad Pickett and Anthony Birchak.

Garbrandt, who trains out of Team Alpha Male in Sacramento, has won all three of his UFC outings. Augusto Mendes succumbed to strikes in the first round in February, as did Marcus Brimage in his debut, while Enrique Briones managed to survive to a decision.

This fight is likely an eliminator for a top-contender matchup. Both Almeida and Garbrandt are on winning streaks and their talent is undeniable. With Aljamain Sterling a favorite over Bryan Caraway on the undercard, the winner of that bout seems like a probable next step for whomever emerges victorious.

Almeida is a striker by trade, and one who balances a high level of technical skill with a tremendous commitment to violence.

While he works behind sharp low kicks and a crisp jab at range, the pocket is Almeida's specialty. He pressures relentlessly but technically, pushing his way into close quarters. If his opponent's back hits the fence, Almeida unloads a flurry of strikes. If he tries to stand his ground and throw back to dissuade Almeida from pressuring, the Brazilian responds with smooth and powerful punching combinations.

Almeida shines in those kinds of exchanges. He's brilliant with his shot selection, moving his punches between the head and body and around or through his opponent's guard. Elbows add another dimension to his assault and flying knees catch opponents who try to duck or roll under his punches.

Every punch, elbow and knee carries fight-ending power. What makes Almeida all the more dangerous is his pace. He's not a headhunter who risks losing a decision while hunting for the kill shot, but a smart, consistent fighter who scores regularly while setting up the strike to finish the fight. Almeida breaks his opponents with pressure and a constant barrage of strikes.

If Almeida has a weakness, it's his defense. He's hittable, especially in the opening minutes of the fight, and his desire to operate in the pocket at a quick pace means he's consistently there to be hit. This weakness shouldn't be overstated, though; Almeida has good head movement, parries regularly and uses an effective guard to block incoming shots. He's also quite durable.

That's essentially the extent of Almeida's game. He never looks to spend much time in the clinch, but excels at landing elbows and knees on breaks. He's an excellent defensive wrestler with a great sprawl and strong limp-leg and wastes no time on his back before trying to get up. Grappling isn't something he looks to do, but he's defensively competent and dangerous on top.

Garbrandt was a decorated amateur boxer, and his hands are the centerpiece of his explosive, power-oriented MMA game. The basic soundness of his striking game is obvious in his high guard and the effortless, technical quality of his punches. He never pulls himself off balance and keeps his feet under him as he throws, which helps him to both generate power and string together combinations.

The Ohio native is aggressive but not focused on pressuring toward the fence. He likes to stick his opponent on the end of his long jab and hard kicks to the legs and body, which gives him plenty of room in open space.

At that point, Garbrandt has to options: He either explodes forward with a combination or commits to vicious counter combinations when his opponent tries to cover the distance. Garbrandt has a diverse array of counters, including backstepping left hooks and straight rights along with pull counters, where he steps back, plants and throws. All are devastating.

With all that said, Garbrandt is still a bit raw. He doesn't consistently move his head and relies heavily on his guard and distance to avoid punches, which makes him hittable as he explodes forward. His length and commitment to fighting at distance help him control the pace, but he sometimes lapses into periods of inactivity.

Wrestling forms a strong secondary skill set for Garbrandt. He has strong hips and excellent takedown defense, while his explosiveness and timing give him a great gift for hitting reactive shots as his opponent comes forward. On the mat, he's content to control and throw strikes from the top. He has yet to show anything like a submission game.


Prediction

Almeida should be a bigger favorite than he is. While he's hittable early and Garbrandt has both devastating power and a knack for the early finish, Almeida works much faster, is much more technically sound in the pocket and has a more diverse arsenal of tools with which to hurt his more limited opponent.

If Garbrandt can force himself to stick and move on the outside, he has a good shot at keeping Almeida outside his wheelhouse. Problem is, that's not really Garbrandt's game. He can do it in short bursts but trying to do so for five rounds against an aggressive, experienced and patient opponent who won't get frustrated is a tall order. When the exchanges start, that will be the end for Garbrandt.

It will take Almeida some time and he'll eat a few shots along the way, but eventually he'll find his flurries. The Brazilian finishes in the third round.

 

[yinunleaded]

Thanks for posting! Seems to be good value on Stephens ~+165

 

[NewYorkKnight]

You are welcome yinunleaded

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC Fight Night 88 predictions, preview, and analysis
By Jesse Holland - MMA Mania



135 lbs.: Thomas "Thominas" Almeida (20-0) vs. Cody "No Love" Garbrandt (8-0)

Nostradumbass predicts: Thomas Almeida is the cat's meow at 135 pounds because he's racked up an impressive four straight wins -- with three consecutive finishes -- since making his Octagon debut in late 2014. That pushes his pro record to a staggering 20-0.

But all that glitters is not gold.

Compiling wins over the cream of the crap like Michel "Cage Boy" Igenho (8-16) and the red-hot Edmilson Atanasio (0-2) does nothing to counter his opponent's recent claims that "Thominas" made a name for himself by beating up cab drivers.

Not that Cody Garbrandt has faced a murderer's row of rough-and-tumble bantamweights.

If we give some of that statistical jetsam the old heave-ho and focus strictly on their fights under the UFC banner, it's hard to give either fighter the edge. Both have heavy hands, solid cardio, and a respectable ground game, as you would expect from the next generation of cage fighters.

But I can't shake that memory of Brad Pickett double-parking Almeida on queer street.

This should prove to be an entertaining fight and I like the wrestling aspect "No Love" brings to the table. The Brazilian is certainly going to have his moments, but I think Garbrandt is going to become the breakout star this Sunday in Las Vegas.

And I mean that in the most violent way possible.

Final prediction: Garbrandt def. Almeida via technical knockout




145 lbs.: Jeremy "Lil' Heathen" Stephens (24-12) vs. Renan "Barao" Pegado (33-3, 1 NC)

Nostradumbass predicts: Here's a little stat for all you numbers guys (and gals): Former lightweight Jeremy Stephens recently celebrated his nine year anniversary as a UFC fighter and in those nine years, he's never come close to a division title shot.

That probably won't change anytime soon based on his recent 1-3 run.

Stephens' claim to fame is landing a third-round shoryuken on now-lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos, back when the Brazilian was built like Olive Oyl and still figuring out how to throw a punch. Since then, "Lil' Heathen" has alternated wins and losses, depending on the level of competition.

He beats the bottom half of the division all day, but struggles when faced with a legit contender.

That's bad news against a former champion in Renan Pegado, who may have made his name at 135 pounds, but is better suited for a career at featherweight. Not having to cut a ridiculous amount of weight -- coupled with his championship experience -- makes this a very winnable fight.

Assuming TJ Dillashaw did not eat his soul.

It's hard to know how a fighter will react to a violent knockout loss but Pegado is still just 29 years old and outside of faltering against "The Viper," he's looked virtually invincible. Thinking about how Stephens looked against guys like Cub Swanson and Charles Oliveira makes this a fairly easy pick.

Final prediction: Pegado def. Stephens via submission




170 lbs.: Tarec "The Sponge" Saffiedine (16-4) vs. Rick "Horror" Story (18-8)

Nostradumbass predicts: Tarec Saffiedine has not finished a fight in over six years and outside of his technical knockout loss to Rory MacDonald at UFC Fight Night 54 in late 2014, has been to the judges' scorecards in eight of his last nine appearances.

He's also competed just once since that loss due to multiple injury setbacks.

I'm not sure what "The Sponge" brings to this contest that Rick Story hasn't already seen -- and conquered. "Horror" has struggled to find consistency, racking up a 6-5 record since turning away Johny Hendricks in late 2010, but has never been knocked out in 26 professional fights.

They don't get any tougher at welterweight.

Saffiedine has a sneaky submission game, but I don't think someone with Story's experience is going to silver-platter a limb. That said, his wresting will come into play at some point, so an exposed neck is not out of the question. Barring that quick finish, this is likely to be three rounds of mug-and-slug.

It won't be pretty, but winning ugly is still winning.

Final prediction: Story def. Saffiedine via unanimous decision




185 lbs.: Chris Camozzi (23-10) vs. Vitor "Lex Luthor" Miranda (12-4)

Nostradumbass predicts: After racking up some wins on the regional circuit, Chris Camozzi was invited back to UFC to play the role of cannon fodder for Ronaldo Souza, who was in need of short-notice opponent at UFC on FOX 15. He got subbed, but nobody cared because "Jacare" just needed a warm body.

He's since redeemed himself with consecutive wins over Tom Watson and Joe Riggs.

Camozzi is the same fighter now as he was during his first run inside the Octagon: well rounded and capable in every skill set, evidenced by an even seven knockouts and seven submission victories. He's also never been knocked out in 33 trips to the cage.

This fight might break that streak.

Vitor Miranda finished 11 straight opponents -- violently -- and is now the winner of three in a row after a decision loss to Antonio Carlos Jr. kicked off his UFC career. "Lex Luthor" throws knees and head kicks like most fighters throw jabs and he's only seen the third round once in the past seven years.

Camozzi, who is eight years younger than the Brazilian bomber, can win this fight if he can make it ugly and grind out the decision. But 15 minutes is a long time to stay upright against a killer like Miranda and I think it's only a matter of time before something wicked this way comes.

Final prediction: Miranda def. Camozzi via knockout




170 lbs.: Jorge "Gamebred" Masvidal (29-10) vs. Lorenz "The Monsoon" Larkin (16-5, 1 NC)

Nostradumbass predicts: Jorge Masvidal can be a frustrating fighter to watch. He's a terrific striker and has a submission game that is not to be taken lightly (just ask Michael Chiesa). But for every brabo choke and knockout from elbows (Cezar Ferreira), there are decisions up the wazoo.

I hate the wazoo.

Unfortunately for fight fans, he's facing the type of combatant who is likely to bring out the worst in him. Lorenz Larkin is a powerful striker -- 10 knockouts in 16 wins -- and looks demonstrably better since abandoning the 185-pound weight class. I just have a hard time imagining "The Monsoon" putting Masvidal to sleep.

He's just too damn tough.

That means three rounds of sloppy kickboxing unless Larkin starts getting outboxed and turns it into a wrestling match. Either way, the judges are going to reward the busier fighter and I can't remember the last time I saw "Gamebred" operate with any sense of urgency.

Final prediction: Larkin def. Masvidal via split decision




155 lbs.: Josh "People's Warrior" Burkman (28-12, 1 NC) vs. Paul "Irish Dragon" Felder (11-2)

Nostradumbass predicts: Josh Burkman, who dates all the way back to The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 2, finally got called back to UFC in January 2015. Unfortunately, the World Series of Fighting (WSOF) import got a pretty rude welcome from Hector Lombard.

It was overturned after "Showeather" melted his test tube, but then Burkman coughed up losses to Dong Hyun Kim and Patrick Cote -- getting finished in both fights. The good news is, "People's Warrior" was able to keep his job by decisioning KJ Noons a few months back.

I'm not crazy about his chances in this fight.

Paul Felder had his bubble burst after dropping two straight fights to Edson Barboza and Ross Pearson. Working in his favor is the fact that neither loss was a blowout and he's since got back into the win column at the expense of Daron Cruickshank.

And the "Irish Dragon" likes that spinning shit.

Burkman is more experienced and has the better resume, but I also believe he's on a downturn. Let's face it, after 40 pro fights there are undoubtedly a lot of miles on those tires. Felder is younger, fresher, and becoming a better fighter each time out.

Final prediction: Felder def. Burkman via unanimous decision

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC Fight Night 88 Newcomer Breakdown: Jordan Rinaldi


Prior to each UFC card, Jay Primetown takes a close look at debuting fighters. In the latest installment, we look at American Jordan Rinaldi as he debuts in the lightweight division against Blackzillians fighter Abel Trujillo at UFC Fight Night 88 in Las Vegas, Nevada.


Jordan Rinaldi

Hometown: Charlotte, North Carolina
Age: 28
Height: 5’10”
Reach: N/A
Weight Class: Lightweight
Camp: Team ROC
Career Record: 12-4
Key Wins: Dennis Bermudez, Clay Harvison
Key Losses: James Moontasri, Brian Ortega


Background

A competitor on the live season of The Ultimate Fighter, Rinaldi was submitted by Joe Proctor to eliminate him from the competition. Rinaldi enters the UFC on a five fight winning streak which he looks to extend in his promotional debut.

Strengths
•Good movement on the feet
•Decent setup from striking to takedowns
•Controls opponents well when able to get top control

Weaknesses
•Doesn’t defend counterstrikes well
•Stands to upright in standing exchanges
•Lacks one punch knockout power
•Chin is a question mark

Match-up against Abel Trujillo

In a match-up of two fighters that come from an amateur wrestling background, Abel Trujillo welcomes Jordan Rinaldi to the UFC. Both fighters are capable on the feet, but have a much different approach. Rinaldi has a bit more variety in what he has to offer, while Trujillo has fewer options but is more effective in having success with his approach. The biggest difference between the fighters is effective striking. Rinaldi lacks the punching power to do much damage on the feet. On the flip side, Trujillo is a heavy hitter who can end a fight at any time. I think that’s the X factor in this fight. Rinaldi could do well early, but at some point Trujillo will land a hook, hurt his opponent, and finish the fight. Trujillo by KO/TKO (+100) is the play to make in this fight.

UFC Ceiling

Jordan Rinaldi has a grappling friendly approach which could prove effective against some of the more striking centric fighters in the lower part of the lightweight division. Rinaldi’s biggest issue is his lack of punching power. He simply doesn’t have an ability to hurt opponents early. He has to win a war of attrition in order to get wins. That’s tough to do unless one has high level conditioning and / or extremely durable. Rinaldi hasn’t proven he excels in either of those areas.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC Fight Night 88: Underdog Picks
from Stephie Haynes - Contributor to Draft Kings



Aljamain Sterling is a legitimately talented athlete hailing from the Serra-Longo fight team. He’s a purple belt in BJJ under former UFC welterweight champion, Matt Serra, and his grappling skills seem to improve with each outing. He’s got excellent takedown defense and most importantly, he’s undefeated in 13 pro bouts.

That said, Bryan Caraway, a veteran of 27 fights, has tons of experience going his way. He has a very respectable 20-7 record, and is tough as nails. His last bout with former WEC champion, Eddie Wineland was an absolute clinic, and of his last 4 bouts, he’s won 3 of them. His grappling is also excellent, demonstrated by 17 submission victories.

Caraway’s experience and durability are hard to ignore, and he also seems to be laser focused on the task at hand, not engaging much in the “mental warfare” that Sterling has thrown his way. For the price, Caraway is the best value underdog on the card.


Caraway via decision



This bout is a very important one for both ladies. Both have dropped 3 of their last 4 fights. Both have struggled mightily since joining the UFC. Of the two, I feel that Eye is the better overall athlete and has the best striking. She trains out of the same gym Stipe Miocic does and is a tough, gritty fighter. Her standing arm triangle choke of Zoila Gurgel is one of the best highlight reel moments in WMMA history, and her fight with Leslie Smith was also historic after she literally punched Smith’s ear off.

McMann, despite her Olympic silver medal in wrestling, seems to struggle with putting her MMA game together as a whole. Her fight with Shayna Baszler ended with her getting a controversial decision win, as well as her split decision victory over Lauren Murphy. In my opinion, she lost both those fights. She was out-wrestled by Miesha Tate and taken out with lightning precision by Amanda Nunes. She’s also a little long in the tooth, especially when you consider she’s been competing at a high level since the age of 14.

Eye’s grit and excellent striking game will be the biggest factor here and should net her the win.


Jessica Eye via TKO



Lorenz Larkin has looked great since making the drop down to 170. He was way undersized for the middleweight division, which is likely a contributing factor to 4 of his 5 losses. He has good striking and serious knockout power, but he’s at a serious disadvantage on the ground, as his grappling has always been the glaring weakness in his overall skillset.

Masvidal is an exceptionally polished striker who makes the most of his jab (a rarity in this sport) and works angles like a pro boxer. He’s got great timing, excellent head movement and real knockout power. His elbows are lethal, and on the ground he is an experienced grappler that does well in scrambles.
Experience and a much more refined, technical skillset will be the biggest factor going toward a Masvidal win, and if he gets this to the ground, it’s going to be a dismal night for Larkin.


Masvidal via decision



From the surface, Thomas Almeida looks to be a killing machine. He’s got a perfect 20-0 record with 19 of those wins being finishes. Most of his fights have been on the international or regional circuit to a list of largely unknown talent. His wins in the Octagon have been to some tough vets on the downside of their careers, one prospect and a TUF competitor who was released after their fight. He’s got a capable ground game, but has been taken down and he’s been dropped, as well. His recovery and ability to get back to his feet is great, but the openings for a well-placed takedown and/or a well-placed punch are aplenty.

Garbrandt is a very good technical striker with real power. He has a perfect 8-0 record, and like Almeida, is a finisher, having only gone the distance once. His wins are also to a who’s who of unknown talent on the regional circuit, and the ones inside the Octagon have been to up and coming fighters, so the strength of schedule is fairly comparable to Almeida’s. He trains out of Team Alpha Male and has access to a variety of excellent wrestlers, so he may carry in a slight advantage on the ground.

Basically this is a fight between two really hot prospects that are trying to get in that coveted Top 5 for a crack at a title eliminator, likely with the winner of Sterling/Caraway. I give the slight edge to Garbrandt due to polished striking and Almeida’s tendencies to leave himself open for takedowns and his willingness to leave openings to being dropped.


Garbrandt via TKO

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Almeida / Garbrandt ... By The Numbers



7
Current ranking of Thomas Almeida as a UFC bantamweight

21-0
Almeida’s perfect pro record including four wins inside the Octagon

95.2
Career finishing rate percentage by “Thominhas” as he has finished all but one of his opponents - his UFC debut unanimous decision win over Tim Gorman in November 2014

3
Consecutive knockouts by Almeida in the UFC including his most recent first round KO of Anthony Birchak in November 2015, tied for longest KO streak in UFC bantamweight history

6.82
Significant strikes landed per minute rate by Almeida - UFC average is 2.83

50
Significant striking accuracy percentage by Almeida - UFC average is 42%

83.3
Takedown defense percentage by Almeida as he has stuffed 15 of 18 attempts, UFC average is 60.5%

100
Percentage of Almeida’s first four UFC bouts that have earned bonuses - three Performance of the Night and one Fight of the Night. The only UFC fighter thus far to start their career with four straight bonuses

8-0
Cody Garbrandt’s perfect pro record including three wins inside the Octagon as a bantamweight

7
KOs by “No Love,” including two inside the Octagon

4
Knockdowns by Garbrandt across his three UFC bouts

100
Percentage of Garbrandt’s UFC opponents that he has knocked down

5
First round finishes by Garbrandt as a pro, including his most recent knockout of Augusto Mendes at UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Cowboy

14:50
Time into the bout when Garbrandt scored a KO of Marcus Brimage at UFC 182, the latest knockout in a three-round bout in UFC/WEC bantamweight history

2
Current ranking of Renan Barao as a UFC bantamweight who will be making his UFC featherweight debut against Jeremy Stephens

8-2
UFC record by “The Baron” as a UFC bantamweight

3
Successful title defenses by the former UFC bantamweight champion, most in UFC bantamweight history

5
Finishes by Barao inside the Octagon - two KOs, three submissions

165
UFC event where Barao scored a spinning back kick knockout of Eddie Wineland, only spinning back kick KO to target an opponent’s head in UFC history

538
Significant strikes landed by Barao as a UFC bantamweight, third most in UFC bantamweight history

3.86
Significant strikes landed per minute rate by Barao, sixth best in UFC bantamweight history (min. 5 fights)

100
Takedown defense percentage by Barao as a UFC bantamweight as he’s stuffed all 32 attempts made against him, best in UFC history (min. 5 fights and 20 opp. att.)

9
Current ranking of Jeremy Stephens as a UFC featherweight

17
Career KOs by “Lil’ Heathen” including five inside the Octagon

10
Knockdowns landed by Stephens inside the Octagon, tied for ninth most knockdowns in UFC history

2
UFC bouts where Stephens has scored two knockdowns in each - Dennis Bermudez and Justin Buchholz

5
UFC bonuses won by Stephens – three Knockout of the Night, two Fight of the Night

23
UFC bouts by Stephens, including this forthcoming fracas with Barao, tied for fifth most fights in UFC history

4:31:53
Total Octagon time by Stephens, tenth most in UFC history