UFC Fight Night 88 - Sunday 5/29 Betting Info - Chatter

[NewYorkKnight]

Two-Way Parlay for UFC Fight Night 88
from MMA Odds Breaker



Featherweight bout: Jeremy “Lil’ Heathen” Stephens (+145) vs Renan Barao (-165)

Gabe’s Thoughts: Former UFC Bantamweight Champion Renan Barao is set to make his featherweight debut after losing a pair of title fights to DJ Dillashaw via knockout. He lost his title in this first fight, and failed to get it back in the second fight. I think “Lil’ Heathen” is a stiff test for him in his 145-pound debut but I think it is one he can pass with flying colors, as long as he proves to not be on a decline. I can see Barao winning this fight in any fashion; submission, T/KO or decision. That said, I do favor him to fight smart and technically outpoint Stephens for three rounds of actin en route to picking up a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards, making a safe entry into the featherweight division and it’s rankings. Though he is capable of putting Stephens away, he should know it is no easy task, so I expect he will fight smart and look to outpoint. However, if he guns guns out looking to get a highlight-reel finish in his 145-pound debut, I would not be surprised. In any case, as long as he avoids getting caught and knocked out, I think Barao should walk away with this one. I think he should be a -230 betting favorite heading into this contest, so I see value in him at his current offering price of -165.

Gabe’s Call: Barao by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)



Middleweight bout: Alberto Pereira (-140) vs Jake Collier (+120)

Gabe’s Thoughts: In short, this is more of a fade on Collier than anything else. Pereira is a solid, undefeated prospect who has finished eight of his nine professional mixed martial arts victories and I expect that trend to continue against Collier in Las Vegas this Sunday night.

Gabe’s Call: Pereira by T/KO (strikes, 1:17 round 1)



Gabe’s Recommended Parlay: Barao (-165) and Pereira (-140) at +175 for 2u to win 3.5u

 

[NewYorkKnight]

MID-WEEK UPDATE




Cody Garbrandt +145
Thomas Almeida -165


Jeremy Stephens +165
Renan Barao -190


Rick Story +100
Tarec Saffiedine -120


Chris Camozzi +180
Vitor Miranda -220


Lorenz Larkin -120
Jorge Masvidal +100


Josh Burkman +260
Paul Felder -320


Jessica Eye +140
Sara McMann -160


Abel Trujillo -320
Jordan Rinaldi +260


Jake Collier +105
Alberto Pereira Uda -125


Shane Campbell -165
Erik Koch +145


Bryan Caraway +340
Aljamain Sterling -425


Chris De La Rocha +215
Adam Milstead -255

 

[NewYorkKnight]

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC Fight Night 88 Newcomer Breakdown: Alberto Pereira


Prior to each UFC card, Jay Primetown takes a close look at debuting fighters. In the latest installment, we look at Brazilian middleweight Alberto Pereira as he debuts against American Jake Collier at UFC Fight Night 88 in Las Vegas, Nevada.


Alberto “Uda” Pereira

Hometown: Blumenau, Santa Catarina, Brazil
Age: 31
Height: 6’3”
Reach:
Weight Class: Middleweight
Camp: Thai Gaspar
Career Record: 9-0
Key Wins: Richardson Moreira, Thiago Perpetuo
Key Losses: None


Background

The Thai Gaspar trained fighter has spent a lot of time in Thailand training in muay thai. In MMA, Pereira has a pair of strong wins over former UFC fighters Richardson Moreira and Thiago Perpetuo. In all, he’s stopped opponents in eight of his nine wins.

Strengths

•Good striker in the clinch
•Strong knees from close range
•Decent takedown defense
•Fights at a high pace

Weaknesses

•Technical striking needs improvement
•Lacks one punch knockout power
•Leaves himself open to the counter
•Rather flat footed; lacks fluid movement in his footwork

Match-up against Jake Collier

This is a match-up of two similarly skilled fighters. Both fighters are 6’3” and have good frames for the weight class. Both of them work in a good percentage of leg kicks to mix in with their striking games. Collier is certainly the better wrestling as he was a state wrestling champion in high school. Despite the wrestling advantage, this is not an area Collier wants to really contend with as “Uda” is a really crafty guard game. Ultimately, I expect this to be a standup exchange. Collier should do well early as he fights better from range and seems to have the better power in his hands. Uda is pretty resilient and should be able to survive the early exchanges. As the fight wears on, Uda’s superior work rate will stand out as he starts to outland his opponent. Look for Uda to land the key strikes of the fight in the clinch in the second and third rounds en route to a late stoppage or unanimous decision win.

UFC Ceiling

Alberto Uda is another undefeated fighter coming out of Brazil. Unlike most of his contemporaries, he does hold some wins over a solid level of competition including two former UFC fighters. Uda’s technique is a bit awkward, but he’s got a high work rate with a very strong clinch game. He will be a tough out for some of the lower level fighters in the division to his work rate. At 31 years old, I don’t see much opportunity for him to improve his technique to be able to compete with the top half of the division. With that said, there’s a place for him in the organization as action fighter that could be used as a good barometer against future prospects.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC Fight Night predictions
from Brett Okamoto - ESPN



Thomas Almeida (20-0) vs. Cody Garbrandt (8-0)
Bantamweights
Odds: Almeida -165; Garbrandt +145

Call this, what could prove to be, the first of several meetings between the two. I'm not convinced they don't run into each other multiple times over the course of their careers. But that's getting ahead of ourselves.

Who wins this one? On the feet, Almeida has more tools. That's not a knock on Garbrandt, as Almeida might possess more tools than just about any 24-year-old I've ever seen. He's throwing elbow strikes like they're punches and dropping guys with them. He's very range-savvy, not just in terms of landing, but what he's landing. Whether it's natural or a carefully honed skill in the muay Thai practice room (probably both), it results in wicked combinations and lots (and lots) of knockouts.

Based completely on the eye test, I think Garbrandt is the slightly better athlete. He's a natural wrestler, has great hand speed and is at home in the pocket thanks to an amateur boxing history and a complete lack of fear. He has a tendency to leave his hands down at the end of exchanges and keep his head on center, which could eventually get him in a lot of trouble, but his chin is rock solid and, as hittable as he is, I'd have a hard time picking against him in a brawl.

And this might have brawl written all over it. Both forfeit defense in favor of offense. Both have a pretty good deal of accuracy and throw at a high rate. Each likes to keep pressure on his opponent, and then downright floor it when the time comes. There will be no discrimination when it comes to offense in this fight -- body blows, leg kicks, head kicks and elbow strikes will be in play.

Garbrandt will be the better wrestler, but maybe not the better overall grappler. Almeida is very active if things go to the floor, certainly active enough to prevent Garbrandt from simply lying on top of him and taking rounds from top position. Not surprisingly, neither has been in a five-round fight but cardio hasn't been an issue for either (nor has confidence, for that matter).

Prediction: A finish, one way or the other. Both are more than capable of ending it, but I'll take Almeida in this one.




Renan Barao (33-3) vs. Jeremy Stephens (24-12)

New home for Barao at 145 pounds, but the new scenery won't help if he hasn't addressed the holes in his game. Stephens is capable of making it hurt if he hasn't.

Prediction: Barao by decision.



Tarec Saffiedine (16-4) vs. Rick Story (18-8)

The finesse of Saffiedine or the blue-collar, hard-nosed work rate of Story? Both can be effective on any given night.

Prediction: Saffiedine by decision.



Sara McMann (8-3) vs. Jessica Eye (11-4)

Still feels like we haven't seen McMann reach her potential. But at what point do you start to wonder whether or not that ever happens? Important fight for the 35-year-old.

Prediction: McMann, submission.



Aljamain Sterling (12-0) vs. Bryan Caraway (20-7)

Bantamweight grudge match. At least, that's what it appears to be on Sterling's side. Sterling asked for this fight (loudly). Now, can he win it?

Prediction: Sterling via TKO.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Almeida vs Garbrandt is a standup duel of accurate strikers

Saffiedine vs Story is skill vs aggression

 

[NewYorkKnight]

26% of Tarec Saffiedine's standing strikes are aimed at legs, >2.5X the UFC average.

Interesting stylistic matchup

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Sports Insights ...


There's early reverse-line movement on Jorge Masvidal ... moving from +117 to +105 despite just 36% of bets

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Thomas Almeida (21-0)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’7″ Age: 24 Weight: 135 lbs Reach: 72.5″
•Last Fight: KO win / Anthony Birchak (11-7-15)
•Camp: Chute Boxe (Brazil)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ Legacy Bantamweight Title
+ Brown Belt BJJ
+ 16 KO victories
+ 4 Submission wins
+ 16 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Solid footwork
^ Rarely out of position
+ Strikes with volume & variety
+ Often leads with this right
^ Favors finishing with his left
+ Deadly left switch knee
^ Mixes well with inside leg kicks
+ Improved wrestling ability
^ Good get-up technique & urgency
+/-Consistently/unabashedly aggressive
^ Can over stay welcome in pocket
^ Traditionally takes damage



Cody Garbrandt (8-0)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’7″ Age: 24 Weight: 135 lbs Reach: 65.5″
•Last Fight: KO win / Augusto Mendes (2-21-15)
•Camp: Team Alpha Male (California)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Title
+ Multiple Wrestling Accolades
+ 32-1 as an Amateur Boxer
+ 7 KO victories
+ 5 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Fast hand & foot speed
^ Attacks well of angles
+ Improved head movement
+ Accurate left hook
^ Checks, attacks, & counters
+ Dangerous right-hand
+ Underrated kicks
+ Explosive power double TD’s
+ Demonstrates good grappling IQ
+ Gets up/scrambles well
+/-Willingness to brawl
^ Sometimes engages emotionally



Summary:

Headlining UFC Vegas is the most potent firefight of the entire card, as Thomas Almeida squares off against Cody Garbrandt. In the rare meeting of young undefeated prospects, it is matchup’s like these that make you feel like Christmas has come early. Similar to when John Lineker fought Francisco Rivera, we will be in store for a bantamweight scrap that bears heavyweight intangibles in regards to power.

Starting off on the feet, both men employ aggressive approaches but in different ways. Almeida, the more persistent stalker, and forward mover, embodies the classic Chute Boxe stylings of old. Covering distance quickly and parlaying his marches appropriately, Almeida displays variety & volume as he fires off preset combinations at the drop of a dime. What is even more impressive than the Brazilian’s striking flow, is the fact that he rarely finds himself out of position despite his voracious approach.

Often entering with his hard right-hand(or elbow depending on the range), Almeida will accentuate his combinations off of his left side. Thomas particularly favors finishing with left hooks to the liver, as he will also unabashedly quark screw uppercuts inside the pocket. Although lacking the outside leg & head kicks demonstrated by his stablemates, Almeida handily makes up for it with his use of the left leg. Parlaying his previously mentioned Thai marches, Almeida beautifully mixes up his inside leg kicks with devastating knees off the shuffle.

Despite his impressive offensive tools, the Brazilian’s inherent aggression has allowed him to take more damage than many think he should. Although Almeida keeps his hands high with improved pocket awareness, his constant fearless attempt for the finish often encourages him to overstay his welcome inside range. Thomas has been able to get away with his fan-friendly recklessness thus far, but he will be certainly playing with fire against the combination & counter prowess of Garbrandt.

Carrying a similar narrative, Cody is also an offense-first fighter. Sharing similar defensive criticisms as his opponent Almeida, Garbrandt has since shored up many of his liabilities since working with Brandon Gibson. Always a skilled boxer, Cody has been able to get away with his aggression through his natural toughness & durability. Realizing the problems with that approach early in his career, we have since seen Garbrandt incorporate much-improved head movement and angling off of his strikes.

In fact, I feel Garbrandt’s ability to slip off angles will be a key factor in this fight. Using his aggressive engagements to bait exchanges, Cody will subtly & slightly move off center to execute his combinations. Like Almeida, Garbrandt will also initiate action with his heavy right hand, but does his cleanup-hitting with the left. I feel Cody’s left hook, in particular, will serve him well in this contest. As seen in Almeida’s bout with Brad Pickett, the Brazilian often keeps and resets his head within range. Despite retracting his hands high, this habit has led Almeida into left hooks on multiple occasions.

Garbrandt’s biggest enemy in this fight will likely be himself. Never one to back down from a brawl, Cody has a tendency to get emotional if the action is not to his liking. If he fails to keep his emotions in check against a destroyer like Almeida, he will likely find himself in the eye of the storm. However, unlike his opposition, Garbrandt wields an explosive power-double takedown that could add an interesting fold to this fight. Whether countering his opponents aggression or solidifying a round, Cody’s ability to take this fight to the floor may prove crucial. That said, Almeida has shown wrestling proficiency of his own with his underrated get-up ability.

Given each fighters stylings and ability to scramble effectively, I doubt we will see prolonged ground stanzas. I believe this fight will be decided by mere inches on the feet, making certainties for either side hard to argue. However, after putting this one under the microscope, I feel Almeida’s approach may end up costing him in this stylistic standoff. Regardless of who you like here, make no mistake about it, this is a gun fight.



Official Pick: Garbrandt – Inside the distance

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Renan Barao (33-3-1)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’7″ Age: 29 Weight: 145 lbs Reach: 70.5″
•Last Fight: TKO loss / TJ Dillashaw (7-25-15)
•Camp: Nova Uniao (Brazil)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC Bantamweight Champion
+ BJJ Black Belt
+ 8 KO victories
+ 13 first round finishes
+ 15 Submission wins
+ KO Power
+ Dynamic striker
^ Accurate spinning attacks
+ Solid left hook
+ Dangerous right hand
+ Heavy leg kicks
+ Superb takedown defense
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Effective scrambler & back taker
+/-Often reverts to shell defense
^ Uppercut & body availabilities
+/-Aggressive in exchanges
^ Will overstay welcome inside



Jeremy Stephens (24-12)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’9″ Age: 29 Weight: 145 lbs Reach: 71″
•Last Fight: Decision loss / Max Holloway (12-12-15)
•Camp: Alliance MMA (San Diego, CA)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ 17 KO victories
+ 2 Submission wins
+ 13 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Devastating right hand
^ Uppercuts & overhands
+ Catches kicks & counters
+ Dangerous late into fights
+ Hard kicks & knees
+ Underrated wrestling ability
+ Improved submission defense
^ Good grip & hand fighting
+/-Often turtles to stand
^ Risks back being taken
+/-Propensity to brawl
^ Counter availabilities
+ Solid chin / Physically durable



Summary:

In a creative co-main event matchup, former bantamweight champion Renan Barao moves up to featherweight to face Jeremy Stephens. After losing his title to the hands of TJ Dillashaw, Barao has since struggled to regain the form & ferocity he had early in his UFC career. No longer having to diminish himself with the cut to 135, Barao will look for a fresh start at featherweight. Welcoming the former champ to the division, Stephens will look to use this opportunity to maintain his relevancy in the standings as he has dropped 3 of 4 of his last fights. With all of Stephens’ recent losses coming by competitive decisions, his record may be deceiving as Jeremy has proved his status of a live dog time & time again.

That said, judges scorecards and on-paper advantages may not matter considering the serendipitous matchup of these two violent strikers. Stalking in a similar fashion to his Nova Uniao stablemates, Barao traditionally comes forward with a full clip on the ready. Wielding a classic Muay Thai repertoire, Renan will occasionally show his wild side with surprisingly accurate spinning attacks. Although his right-hand is most prominent on the highlight reels, Barao possesses an effective left hook that may serve him well in this fight.

Even in his devastating losses to TJ Dillashaw, Renan Barao was still able to land left hooks throughout the contest(especially when thrown as a check). Against an aggressive striker like Stephens, a check hook can become your best friend as we saw Yves Edwards find success with this in his fight with Jeremy. Never the less, the surface level of Barao’s striking skills can be deceiving as we have recently seen the former champion’s aggressive style taken to task in the last two years.

Despite his dynamic attack ability, Barao has steadily become predictable in his plots. These subtle dips in his step often tip off Renan’s oncoming attacks, as his aggression has seemingly enabled him to overstay his welcome in exchanges of late. Barao also reverts to a shell defense, that coupled with his dipping tendencies, have traditionally exposed the Brazilian to uppercuts. Considering Stephens throws a devastating uppercut, I feel this will be a key punch to look for from the little heathen.

In a similar spirit, Stephens also presents a unique threat in the form of knees that may see some light in this fight. As he brilliantly stated after his victory over Dennis Bermudez, Stephens will look for his opposition to heavily put their weight over their front foot, as this opens up knees and uppercuts. Considering Renan consistently keeps heavy on his front foot, this could be something to look for as Barao comes forward.

I feel that Barao’s best chances of closing this show will be on the floor or in transition. Although I am not sure how Renan’s size will translate to this division, he possesses an underrated strength and takedown ability inside the clinch. Even though Stephens has some solid wrestling ability of his own, he was taken down from the clinch in his last three fights. Never the less, Stephens will be at his highest risk while transitioning back to his feet. Often turtling-out to stand, Stephens runs the risk of getting his back taken by the more proficient scrambler in Barao.

Stephens is no slouch in defending submissions as we saw him successfully thwart the attempts of specialist, Charles Oliveira for three rounds. Demonstrating intelligent grip fighting, a sober Stephens may prove difficult to catch. That said, a single back take from Barao could cost him a round positionally as it did with Oliveira. Although I do not disagree with Renan coming in as a slight favorite, I am not sure a durable knockout artist will be the best matchup for Barao to get his groove back.




Official Pick: Stephens – Inside the distance

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Tarec Saffiedine (15-4)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’9″ Age: 29 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 70.5″
•Last Fight: Decision win / Jake Ellenberger (1-30-16)
•Camp: Tristar Gym (Canada)
•Stance/Striking Style: Switch-stance / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Good


Supplemental info:
+ Strikeforce Welterweight Title
+ Black Belt BJJ & Karate
+ Amateur Kickboxing Experience
+ 5 first round finishes
+ 5 Submission wins
+ Good distance management
^ Moves well laterally
+ Disciplined striking defense
^ Head moves well off strikes
+ Effective jab from both stances
^ Conducts tempo/sets up kicks
+ Superb leg kick timing
+ Underrated counter wrestling
^ 86% takedown defense
+/-Consistently fights along the fence
– Sometimes vulnerable off the break



Rick Story (18-8)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’10” Age: 31 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 71″
•Last Fight: Decision win / Gunnar Nelson (10-4-14)
•Camp: MMA Lab (Washington/AZ)
•Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Title
+ Collegiate Wrestling Experience
+ 4 KO victories
+ 4 first round finishes
+ 4 Submission wins
+ KO power / Heavy hands
+ Persistent pressure
^ Consistent volume & combos
+ Dangerous left hand
+ Hard body shots
+ Counters well of the break
+ Underrated wrestling ability
+ Solid strikes & transitions on top
+/-Willingness to brawl
^ Traditionally takes damage
+ Physically durable / never KO’d



Summary:

In a welterweight pairing that promises action, Tarec Saffiedine will take on the returning Rick Story. Due to a recent run of injuries, we have not seen Rick Story in action since his 5-round victory over Gunnar Nelson back in October of 2014. Now with a clean bill of health, Rick will look to use this main card spot to continue his journey.

Standing in his way is Tarec Saffiedine, who has also struggled with fight activity due to injuries in the past few years of his career. With an undisclosed injury sustained late in Tarec’s camp, it will be interesting to see how close to competition level he will be. With that intangible stated, let’s take a look at how these two stack up technically.

Although Story has shown striking improvements since moving shop to the MMA Lab, Saffiedine is still the superior striker on-paper. One of the most proficient switch-stance fighters in the UFC, Tarec will effectively fire off jabs from both sides as this allows him to dictate and disrupt striking tempos. With Tarec’s patent leg kicks that usually come behind his straight punches, Saffiedine’s approach should be straight-forward against an aggressive looping puncher like Story.

That said, Story has shown time and time again that his application of aggression is not as simple as it seems. Displaying improved head movement and an understanding of angles, Rick has shown to be just as dangerous off the counter as he is coming forward. In fact, Story shifts particularly well going backward, as he scored knockdowns against Kelvin Gastelum & Gunnar Nelson by deceptively countering on retreats.

With Saffiedine possessing the advantages at range, he will likely be trying to avoid pocket exchanges with Story. However, Tarec will need to be careful when exiting the pocket as his last three knockdowns(or times he was clearly stunned) have all come off the break. Since Story is most dangerous when striking off the break, I suspect this will be a key factor in this fight.

Even though Saffiedine more than has the skill and stamina to stick & move, he habitually finds himself operating from the outside which could be a detriment in this fight. A persistent pressure fighter by nature, Story is most consistent with his combinations when his opposition is in between the fence and inner-Octagon lines. If Saffiedine chooses to circle inside Story’s preferred kill zone, he will need to be as sharp as a sword.

Given each man’s styling, I doubt we will see prolonged stalemates on the floor. I do feel that Story is the better on-paper grappler, and will have more motive and ability to take this match to the mat. However, Tarec is an underrated grappler, as there is more than meets the eye in his takedown defense. As a fan of technicians, Saffiedine has always been a fun watch since his days in Strikeforce. That said, I do not feel this is a good style matchup for him, as I once again preach the underdog value of a durable southpaw.




Official Pick: Story – Decision

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Vitor Miranda (12-4)


Staple info:
•Height: 6’1″ Age: 37 Weight: 185 lbs Reach: 77″
•Last Fight: TKO win / Marcelo Guimaraes (3-5-16)
•Camp: Team Nogueira (Brazil)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Muay Thai
•Risk Management: Moderate


Supplemental info:
+ TUF Brazil 3 Alum
+ 23-8-1 as a Pro Kickboxer
+ Brown Belt BJJ
+ 10 KO victories
+ 2 Submission wins
+ 8 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Accurate shot selection(64%)
^ Measures well with jab
+ Dangerous head kicks
^ Often snuck over the shoulder
+ Hard leg kicks & knees
+ Underrated wrestling ability
^ Improved TD defense
+/-Often retreats towards fence
^ Comfortable & effective from there



Chris Camozzi (23-10)


Staple info:
•Height: 6’3″ Age: 29 Weight: 185 lbs Reach: 75.5″
•Last Fight: TKO win / Joe Riggs (2-21-16)
•Camp: Factory-X Muay Thai (Denver, CO)
•Stance/Striking Style: Southpaw / Muay Thai
•Risk Management: Moderate


Supplemental info:
+ TUF 11 Alum
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Brown Belt BJJ
+ 8 KO victories
+ 6 Submission wins
+ 8 first round finishes
+ Accurate distance striker
^ 2nd most landed MW in UFC
+ Excellent leg kicks
^ Most landed in UFC MW history
+ Active long jab
+ Underrated Guillotine choke
+ Improved takedown defense
^ Good under-hook awareness
– Struggles when pressure fought
+ Solid chin / never stopped



Summary:

In a Muay Thai maelstrom at middleweight, UFC staple Chris Camozzi takes on the surging Brazilian veteran Vitor Miranda. In a fight that measures up to be an all-out war, each man will look to parlay their recent momentum by taking full advantage of this main card showcase.

Although both fighters strike from Muay Thai bases, Miranda is the more technically refined practitioner as his well-accoladed past would suggest. Like Chris Camozzi, Miranda’s striking was also stifled early on in his MMA career due to grappling pressure. Since Vitor’s debut with the UFC, we have seen steady improvements in his takedown defense and overall wrestling ability. Even though Miranda often retreats toward the fence, he demonstrates comfort & efficiency in operating from this space.

Staying calm and collected, Miranda’s defenses and get-up ability usually forces his opposition to exert much more energy than he does. That said, he will likely not have to worry about this with Chris Camozzi. As his statistic accolades would suggest, the long & durable Camozzi prefers to make his money at range. Staying behind an active jab, Chris keeps a consistent flow of leg kicks coming as he does a good job of mixing in teeps and mid-level kicks. These tools coupled with his ability to dictate range will likely be Camozzi’s best chances at a victory.

Even though Camozzi has solid offensive accuracy he can stand by, his willingness to exchange has shown to expose him defensively. Displaying a tendency to keep his head upright(especially when exiting space), Camozzi traditionally takes damage in both victory and defeat. Chris also tends to keep/retract his left-hand low when exchanging, which could cost him against the attacks that Miranda brings from that side. Wielding deceptively accurate jabs and leg kicks of his own, Miranda will smoothly sneak his patented right head kick over his opposition’s shoulder.

Durable southpaws often make for deceptive underdogs, but unless Camozzi can establish his terms early, he may find himself outclassed by a superior striker. And even though Chris’s chin has allowed him to surmount comebacks before, his propensity to take shots may get him burned here as he will surely be playing with fire.




Official Pick: Miranda – Decision

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Jorge Masvidal (29-10)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’11” Age: 31 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 73″
•Last Fight: Decision loss / Ben Henderson (11-28-15)
•Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Good


Supplemental info:
+ Former AFC Welterweight Champ
+ Undefeated in the streets
+ 11 KO victories
+ 6 first round finishes
+ 2 Submission wins
+ Accurate shot selection
+ Solid balance & footwork
^ Rarely out of position
+ Active transition & clinch game
^ Strikes well off the break
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ 81% Takedown defense
+ Underrated submission game
^ Dangerous from front headlock
+/-Often shells upright
^ Body/right hand openings
– Low priority leg checking
– Sometimes subject to activity lulls



Lorenz Larkin (16-5)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’11” Age: 29 Weight: 170 lbs Reach: 72″
•Last Fight: Decision loss / Albert Tumenov (1-2-16)
•Camp: Millennia MMA (California)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Moderate


Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ Blue Belt BJJ
+ 10 KO victories
+ 7 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Good distance management
^ Closes range quickly
+ Fast hand & foot speed
+ Dynamic kicking game
^ Accurate spinning attacks
+ Heavy leg kicks
? Questionable ground game
+/-Heavily prioritized TD defense
^ Limits clinch game
+/-Often reverts to Philly Shell
^ Head upright/counter available
– Struggles when pressure fought
^ Especially when forced into cage



Summary:

The fight that I am looking forward to most resides in the welterweight division, as fan favorites Jorge Masvidal and Lorenz Larkin face-off. Both men were 2-0 since making the move to 170-pounds until dropping close decisions in their most recent bouts. Masvidal lost a razor thin decision to the former champion Benson Henderson last year in Korea, whereas Larkin found himself on the wrong side of the scorecards in a close contest with Albert Tumenov. No stranger to suspect scorecards, Masvidal will look to combat his criminally underrated career by leaving this one out of the judges hands. And with a willing dance partner like Lorenz Larkin, we should be in for quite the show.

Both men are technically sound strikers, as they each demonstrate diversity & flexibility whether they are attacking or countering. However, both men also struggle with pressure fighting as I suspect that will be the key factor in this fight. For my money, whoever decides to lead first on the dance floor should have the edge in striking exchanges. In looking at each fighter’s ring generalship that man will probably be Masvidal, as he employs the more straight forward approach.

Although Lorenz is more than capable of effectively coming forward, he tends to favor using his creativity at range. Larkin usually carries a speed advantage over his opposition that compliments his footwork and anti-grappling agenda. Given the looming grappling threat of one of American Top Team’s most underrated wrestlers, I suspect Lorenz will stay on his horse when attacking Masvidal. Despite being a former light-heavyweight, I suspect Larkin will still have a slight speed advantage over Jorge.

If Larkin can dictate the distance and draw Jorge into a battle of range-finding, he will have his best chances of picking apart Masvidal as I see leg kicks in particular being effective. Although Jorge’s footwork is not as flamboyant as Larkin’s, he closes the distance deceptively well as he utilizes subtle angles to enter. What makes Masvidal such sound stalker is the fact that you will rarely catch him out of position. Not only does this keep Masvidal’s striking & countering arsenals open, but it also lends to his takedown defense, as he consistently keeps balance in his form.

Should Masvidal get his pressure game going, we may seem him expose some of Larkin’s defensive tendencies. Although Lorenz moves well laterally, he will often retreat toward the cage in a Philly Shell(Power hand high with head tucked into the lead shoulder as the lead hand hangs low). Traditionally, this has opened up Lorenz to right hands when caught up against the cage(as seen in his fights with Philippou & Brunson). Considering Lorenz tends to circle on the outside, he could be playing with fire whenever he finds himself between the fence and inner-black Octagon lines.

With the biggest skill differential residing in the grappling department, Larkin will need to be especially mindful in clinch situations. Although Lorenz has made improvements to counter-grapple from in close, his over-prioritization of defending takedowns ultimately limits his offensive threats & overall clinch game. Against a multifaceted threat like Masvidal, Larkin may likely find himself in trouble, especially if Jorge takes this fight to the floor. Even if Lorenz can break the clinch and avoid being taken down, he will still need to be careful when exiting space, as even a lackadaisical Masvidal is consistent with striking off the breaks.

I am self admittedly a huge fan of both fighters, but have a hard time going against the man with the bigger arsenal. Without seeing Larkin’s ground game since his 2014 bout with Derek Brunson, it is hard to make a fair assessment of where he stands. That said, their sample sizes of grappling acumen seem to reside on separate ends of the spectrum, as Masvidal’s craft & in-fight IQ is on another level. With neither fighter the type to go quietly, this is likely your early contender for Fight of the Night.




Official Pick: Masvidal – Decision

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Josh Burkman (28-12-1)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’10” Age: 35 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 72″
•Last Fight: Decision win / KJ Noons (2-6-16)
•Camp: The Pit Elevated (Utah)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Fair


Supplemental info:
+ TUF 2 Alum
+ Former JUCO All-American(Football)
+ 9 KO victories
+ 8 Submission wins
+ 15 first round finishes
+ KO power
+ Deceptive counter striker
^ Dangerous check R. hook
+ Powerful kicks (both stances)
^ Favors leg & body kicks
+ Physically strong in clinch
^ Looks for takedowns/slams
+/-Primarily throws from right side
+/-Willingness to trade
^ Propensity to take damage



Paul Felder (11-2)


Staple info:
•Height: 5’10” Age: 31 Weight: 155 lbs Reach: 70.5″
•Last Fight: Submission win / Daron Cruickshank (1-17-16)
•Camp: Team Renzo Gracie (Philly)
•Stance/Striking Style: Orthodox / Kickboxing
•Risk Management: Moderate


Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA Titles
+ 2nd degree Black Belt Tae Kwon Do
+ Blue Belt BJJ
+ 7 KO victories
+ 2 first round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Diverse striking arsenal
^ Accurate spinning attacks
+ Dangerous Knees
+ Underrated takedown defense
^ Good butterfly guard/get-ups
+ Deceptive submission acumen
+ Solid feints & footwork
+/-Willingness to trade
^ Solid chin / Physically durable



Summary:

Kicking off the main card on FOX Sports 1 is fantastic lightweight scrap as the veteran, Josh “The People’s Warrior” Burkman draws the always dangerous Paul “The Irish Dragon” Felder. With both men recently righting their ships with hard-fought victories, this fight will be a good measuring stick for the current momentum of each fighter’s career.

Starting off on the feet, I suspect we will see a classic pairing of aggressive stalkers & counter fighters as each combatant is consistent with their approach. Felder is the more forward moving fighter, as he will utilize a variation of Thai-marching to stalk & feint his way inside. Whereas Burkman primarily makes his money off the counter, as he will parlay his aggression(and chin) into high-risk exchanges. I expect Josh will lean on his craftiness from the outside, as he will look to play matador with the oncoming Irish Dragon.

Although Burkman can powerfully variate his attacks from both stances, he primarily throws from his right side. That does not mean Josh is a one-sided fighter, but throwing from his left-side may serve him well in this fight. Burkman has a solid left hook in particular that may find its home, especially when you look at Felder’s past performances against fighters like Ross Pearson. That said, Felder may be harder to counter than expected.

Despite being known for his forward pressure, Felder does a good job at feinting his way inside. As we saw in Burkman’s fight with Cote, he struggles to find his rhythm when being drawn out prematurely with feints. I expect that this facet of Felder’s game has only improved since moving shop to New Jersey to train with Mark Henry & company. If Felder can bait Josh effectively, we may see his striking variety and volume advantages come to life.

Burkman’s best bet may come by mixing in his underrated takedown game. As we saw in Josh’s last fight, he still demonstrates the ability to change gears when he needs to. However, Burkman scores most of his takedowns off the fence, a place Felder is very familiar defending from. Demonstrating a fundamental understanding of takedown defense, Paul has steadily improved his abilities in counter grappling. In his last fight, we saw his progression here, as he was able to threaten and eventually finish with his deceptive submission acumen.

As a fan of tough veterans like Burkman, you cannot be too quick to count someone out. That said, all the on-paper signs point to the Irish Dragon in what I imagine will be a three round war.




Official Pick: Felder – Decision



Preliminary Card Predictions

•McMann def. Eye
•Trujillo def. Rinaldi
•Uda def. Collier
•Campbell def. Koch
•Caraway def. Sterling
•Milstead def. De La Rocha



Recommended Plays

Fantasy MMA Picks

High Tier Picks:

-Abel Trujillo
-Paul Felder
-Vitor Miranda

Low Tier Picks:

-Cody Garbrandt
-Jeremy Stephens
-Jorge Masvidal


Pieces for your parlay:

-Vitor Miranda
-Abel Trujillo
-Paul Felder



Props worth looking at(5dimes.eu):

-Barao/Stephens – Under 2 1/2: +110 (1 Unit)
-Jorge Masvidal – by Decision: +185 (1 Unit)
-Sara McMann – by Decision: +155 (.05 Unit)
-Jeremy Stephens – by TKO/KO: +365 (.05 Unit)



Fights to avoid:

-Erik Koch vs Shane Campbell
-Thomas Almeida vs Cody Garbrandt
-Chris De La Rocha vs Adam Milstead

 

[Fritzz38]

Take Larkin then???

Sports Insights ...


There's early reverse-line movement on Jorge Masvidal ... moving from +117 to +105 despite just 36% of bets

 

[NewYorkKnight]

I'm still looking that fight over ...

 

[NewYorkKnight]

UFC Fight Night 88 Play
from MMA Odds Breaker



Aljamain Sterling (13-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC) is coming off a second round submission win over Johnny Eduardo over five months ago, which put him at four in a row in the UFC’s bantamweight division. He looks to continue to climb the rankings with a victory over Caraway, as he has his sights set on UFC gold. Sterling has been referred to as “the bantamweight version of Jon Jones” because of his speed, athleticism, wrestling background and versatile, flashy style of striking.

“Aljo” is a very quick fighter who moves well on his feet. He likes to use a lot of kicks and has a variety of them in his arsenal. He has nice front kicks, high kicks, head kicks, a solid sidekick and great leg kicks. He loves to throw his knees out there, too. The Cortland, NY, native has a fine jab, good striking defense, and a solid chin. He likes to control the pace of his fights, and likes to pressure his opponents in the clinch and up against the cage, from which position he likes to implement his knees. He uses the clinch up against the cage to punish the legs and thighs of his opponents’.

Sterling is a talented wrestler who possesses great speed and times his takedowns very well. He has an excellent double-leg, and often uses it to get his opponents to the mat, from which position he displays powerful top control. He has great wrestling and jiu-jitsu which helps him in the excellent transitions he makes on the mat, advancing from position to position. The New Yorker has a terrific submission game, both offensively and defensively, as has been evident with his submission victories over the veteran Takeya Mizugaki and the aforementioned Eduardo, respectively. Sterling’s takedown defense is pretty good, and when taken down, he does a very good job of working his way back to his feet. Training out of the Serra-Longo camp in Long Island under the tutelage of Matt Serra and Ray Longo, Sterling is a well-conditioned fighter who will be ready for a full 15-minutes of action, if necessary.


Bryan Caraway (20-17, 6-2 UFC) last saw action 10 months ago at UFC on FOX 16 in Chicago, where he took a unanimous decision over veteran Eddie Wineland. The win puts him at 3-1 in his last four outings inside the Octagon and 6-2 in his last eight. The 31-year-old is a talented grappler who works solid takedowns and is dominant from top position. He has an excellent Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game, owning an impressive 17 of 20 professional mixed martial arts career victories by way of submission.

“Kid Lightning” has been making significant improvements in his striking game, as has been evident fight to fight. He works solid outside leg kicks and has a nice uppercut. Caraway also possesses a good chin and is capable of taking a punch, so he isn’t afraid to test his skills on the feet against his opponents. The Ultimate Fighter season 14 veteran generally has had cardio issues in the past, but that is in the past. He has made serious improvements in that department, as well, and training out of Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas, NV, I expect he will be game for a full three rounds of action against Sterling, should this 135-pound scrap hit the judges’ scorecards for a decision.


Gabe’s Call: Sterling by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)


Gabe’s Thoughts: Caraway is a very good bantamweight and I have backed him in many of his UFC fights. That said, I do not like him in this spot. I believe Sterling is the superior mixed martial artist heading into this match-up and I see him getting the better of Caraway over the course ofthree rounds in this contest en route to picking up a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. However, I do not see value in Sterling at his current offering price of -440, but do see value in the Total of Over 2.5 rounds at -190, as I think he wins this fight on the judges’ scorecards much more often than not.



Gabe’s Recommended Play: Sterling/Caraway Over 2.5 rounds (-190) parlayed with Larkin (-140) at +161 for 3.25u to win 5.25u

 

[NewYorkKnight]

An in-depth look at the UFC Fight Night 88 FS1 preliminary card
from Jon Fuentes - Bloody Elbow



Fight 1: Erik Koch vs Shane Campbell

The first fight of the night takes place in the UFC's deeply talented pool that is the lightweight division, between Erik 'The New Breed' Koch and Shane 'Shaolin' Campbell.

Koch (14-4) has been held away from the sport for a little over a year due to recurring injuries, with his last appearance in May of 2014 resulting in an upsetting first round finish at the hands of Daron Cruickshank at UFC Fight Night 40. Once upon a time, Koch was scheduled to fight Jose Aldo for the featherweight title, but both times the fight was cancelled due to injuries to both men. He's now just 1-3 in his last 4 fights, in addition to his inactivity.

Campbell (12-4) was last inside the Octagon this past February on UFC Fight Night 83, where he dropped a unanimous decision defeat to James Krause. Campbell replaces Koch's original opponent, Joe Proctor, who was forced to pull out of the bout citing an injury.

According to Best Fight Odds, Campbell is as much as a -190 favorite to take home the victory over Koch. Given Campbell's extensive kickboxing career, that includes 62 professional victories, it's hard to argue that 'Shaolin' won't take home the win despite Koch being a longtime Tae Kwon Do black belt.



Fight 2: Jake Collier vs Alberto Uda

Next up is a middleweight clash between UFC veteran Jake Collier and undefeated Brazilian newcomer Alberto Emiliano 'Uda' Pereira.

Collier (9-3) comes off a second round TKO loss to Dongi Yang at UFC Fight Night 79 last November. Collier has won three of his last five bouts, winning two of them via submission. His only UFC win in three attempts is a split decision over Ricardo Abreu last June.

Pereira (9-0) is riding the momentum of a first round TKO victory over Thiago de Oliveira Perpetuo, to go along with an undefeated professional MMA career. 'Uda' makes his UFC debut against Collier, having finished all but one of his professional victories inside the cage.

The Brazilian is a -140 favorite over Collier in his UFC debut, and given the Brazilian's tendency to finish his fights the odds are hard to argue against.



Fight 3: Abel Trujillo vs Jordan Rinaldi

Another lightweight bout is set to go down on FS1, when Abel 'Killa' Trujillo takes on yet another UFC newcomer in Jordan 'All Day' Rinaldi.

Trujillo (14-6) is currently on a two fight win-streak, with his most recent victory coming via guillotine choke against Tony Sims at UFC 195. The four-time NAIA All-American looks to put an end to Rinaldi's five fight win-streak, while upsetting his UFC debut in the process. His fight against Gleison Tibau was listed as a controversial RNC loss, but because Tibau failed his drug test, Trujillo's loss was overturned into a disqualification win, per the UFC's new USADA rules.

Rinaldi (12-4) is set to make his UFC debut, coming hot off a second round armbar submission victory over Lashawn Alcocks. The Sergio Penha BJJ product has finished 58% of his victories via submission, giving the newcomer the edge in the jiu-jitsu department.

The longtime UFC veteran 'Killa' is a heavy -330 favorite over Rinaldi, and it's for good reason due to his superior wrestling ability as well as his powerful standup game. Trujillo is going to have to be careful on the ground, however, because as previously mentioned 'All Day' has finished the majority of his cage wins with submissions.



Fight 4: Sara McMann vs Jessica Eye

The FS1 preliminary card closes out with a pair of top-ten women's bantamweights, between No. 6 ranked Sara McMann and No. 7 ranked Jessica Eye.

McMann (8-3) has only one victory to show for her last three Octagon appearances, since suffering her first professional defeat to Ronda Rousey in 2014. Her most recent Octagon appearance saw her quickly submitted in the first round against Amanda Nunes in August.

Eye (11-4, 1 NC) has been on a downward spiral of her own, dropping her last two bouts via unanimous decision to both Miesha Tate and Julianna Pena. Eye's last victory came just over two years ago at UFC 170, when 'Evil' took a second round TKO victory over Leslie Smith due to a doctor's stoppage.

McMann is a former Olympic silver medalist wrestler and can dominate the ground game if Eye gives her the opportunity to take her down. While Eye holds the striking advantage in the matchup, McMann's world-class wrestling ability may prove to be too much for 'Evil' to overcome, which is presumably why the Olympian is as high as a -165 favorite to take home the win.

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Fight Night 88 Predictions
from Brian Mazique - Forbes

Matchup	Weight Class	Prediction	Bonus Potential
Chris De La Rocha (3-1) vs. Adam Milstead (7-1)	Heavyweight	De La Rocha by submission	Low
Aljamain Sterling (12-0) vs. Bryan Caraway (20-8)	Bantamweight	Sterling by submission	Moderate to High
Erik Koch (14-4) vs. Shane Campbell (12-4)	Lightweight	Campbell by decision	Low
Jake Collier (9-2) vs. Alberto Uda (9-0)	Middleweight	Uda by TKO	Moderate
Abel Trujillo (14-6) vs. Jordan Rinaldi (12-4)	Lightweight	Trujillo by KO	High
Sara McMann (8-3) vs. Jessica Eye (11-4)	Women’s Bantamweight	McMann by decision	Moderate
Joshua Burkman (29-12) vs. Paul Felder (11-2)	Lightweight	Felder by decision	Moderate
Jorge Masvidal (29-10) vs. Lorenz Larkin (16-5)	Welterweight	Larkin by decision	Low to Moderate
Chris Camozzi (23-10) vs. Vitor Miranda (13-4)	Middleweight	Miranda by TKO	High
Tarec Saffiedine (16-4) vs. Rick Story (18-8)	Welterweight	Saffiedine by decision	Moderate
Renan Barao (35-3) vs. Jeremy Stephens (24-12)	Featherweight	Barao by submission	Moderate to High
Thomas Almeida (21-0) vs. Cody Garbrandt (8-0)

 

[NewYorkKnight]

Here’s a look at all of the fighters on Sunday’s card who have won fight night bonuses and how many they’ve captured in their careers:


•Stephens – 5
•Barao – 5
•Almeida – 4
•Caraway – 2
•Koch – 2
•Trujillo – 2
•Felder – 2
•Burkman – 2
•Larkin – 2
•Masvidal – 2
•Story – 2
•Miranda – 1
•Camozzi – 1
•Saffiedine – 1