UFC 207: Preliminary Predictions
from Kamikaze Overdrive
170lbs- #6 JOHNY HENDRICKS (17-5-0) vs #8 NEIL MAGNY (18-6-0)
In the headlining fight of the UFC 207 prelims, former Welterweight champion Johny “Bigg Rigg” Hendricks takes on Neil Magny in a battle of Top 10 Welterweights. Hendricks has lost back to back fights and has just a pair of wins over his last 5 contests- holding victories over Matt Brown and Robbie Lawler during that span. Magny just had his 3-fight winning streak snapped in a loss to Lorenz Larkin- he had picked up wins over the likes of Hector Lombard and Kelvin Gastelum.
At 6’3″, Magny is 6 inches taller than his foe and will have a lengthy 11″ reach advantage. Magny is the younger man by 4-years.
Hendricks has struggled in recent fights to find the form that led him to the title in 2014. A former elite level NCAA D1 wrestler, Hendricks is capable of winning a fight solely on the basis of his wrestling. Over his last 3 wins, he completed 23 takedowns- 12 against Carlos Condit. Hendricks has fight-stopping power in hands, recording 8 wins by knockout- none since UFC 154 in 2012. While the knockouts have dried up, “Bigg Rigg” worked to up his volume through combination striking. He landed 269 strikes over 2-fights against Lawler. All that considered, Johny simply has failed to execute in his recent defeats. Most notably, he seemed completely at a loss dealing with the distance against Stephen Thompson and struggled to match the output of Gastelum.
Hendricks has battled through some tough weight cuts and some people have made correlations between the arrival of USADA and Johny’s career downturn.
Magny is coming off of just the second defeat in his last 12 fights. During his climbed out of a 1-2 start to his UFC career, he showed a pair of noteworthy improvements. The ability to use his reach and keep his foe on the outside became central to his success. His strikes absorbed per minute has increased over recent contests, but still sits at a respectable 2.08. He set a career high for offensive output at 148 significant connections against Lombard, but he was in serious trouble early in that fight. Prior to the Larkin knockout, Magny was hurt by both Hector and Hyun Gyu Lim. The offensive wrestling has also been a point of improvement for Magny as well. He scored a combined 10 takedowns in his decision wins over Erick Silva and Kelvin Gastelum.
At UFC 202, Magny was scheduled to face Dong Hyun Kim before Kim was removed from the card and replaced by Larkin.
Hendricks has been losing to elite level competition, but he is clearly not on the same level as he was just a couple years ago. Magny’s reach is going to be the key to his success here. By keeping Johny at the end of his punches he will both limit the potential for Hendricks to land strikes and make it difficult for Johny to shoot for takedowns. For Hendricks, he would be best served to rely on his wrestling to put Magny on his back and keep him there. Johny has put a lot of pressure on himself to win this fight if he intends to continue his career, but his recent struggles with distance management and volume will continue here-
my prediction is Neil Magny to defeat Johny Hendricks by decision.
170lbs- #9 DONG HYUN KIM (21-3-1 1NC) vs #12 TAREC SAFFIEDINE (16-5-0)
Getting the push to the main card, former Strikeforce Welterweight champion Tarec “Sponge” Saffiedine makes his third appearance of 2016 when he takes on the “Stun Gun” Dong Hyun Kim. Kim has won back to back fights, finishing both Josh Burkman and Dominic Waters to improve to 6-1 over his last 7 bouts. Saffiedine is looking to rebound from a defeat at the hands of Rick Story, the loss dropped him to 2-2 inside the Octagon.
Kim is 4 inches taller than his foe and will have a sizeable 6″ reach advantage. Tarec is the younger man by 5-years.
The last man to wear the Strikeforce Welterweight strap, has struggled to find his footing in the UFC. Against Story, Saffiedine fought with a bad cut on his leg and spent the majority of the bout on the defensive. He does his best work at range, chopping away at his opponent’s leg with brutal low kicks. He will also throw round and straight kicks to the body along with targeting his foe’s head. A calculated striker, Tarec switches stances and is patient when looking for openings. In his debut, he landed over 100 significant strikes, but hasn’t come close to that level of output since. Defensively, his TDD is very good. While he has defended 87% of his opponents’ TDAs, he routinely got stuck on the wall in his last fight and was unable to create separation.
The biggest knock on “Sponge” is his lack of power. Despite a striking-centric attack, he has just a single win by knockout. This can create issues against aggressive strikers that he can’t dissuade from constantly pushing forward.
South Korea’s Kim is a Black belt in Judo and a BJJ Purple belt. After building a reputation as a grinder, Kim has recently upped the tempo of his game and finished his opponent in each of his last 4 bouts. Dong is far from a high volume striker, but he is aggressive- constantly moving forward to engage and he has undervalued power. Kim has woven together his full-blast striking attack with his heavy clinch game. Against Burkman he habitually stifled Josh on the cage, grinding him into the wall and eventually submitting him on the mat. Dong’s uptick in aggression can leave him open to getting hit and Tyron Woodley violently knocked him out in just 61-seconds back in 2014.
Kim has landed at least 1 takedown in each of 11 UFC victories. However, through his first 7 wins he averaged 3.14 completions per fight compared to just a single takedown per bout over his last 4 wins.
This fight offers a compelling contrast of styles; Kim wants to compete at close range and Saffiedine needs to maintain separation to be effective. As mentioned above, Tarec doesn’t have the type of power to back his opponent up. But, if the Belgium fighter can endure the opening round and force Kim to over-exert himself; the Korean has been known to gas. Kim’s strong forward pressure will limit the success of Saffiedine’s biggest weapon- his kicking arsenal. Unless Kim completely exhausts himself in round 1, he will be able to back his foe up and frequently control the position along the wall for at least 2 stanzas. Tarec’s tendency to pick his spots at range will limit his effectiveness when he does have space-
my prediction is Dong Hyun Kim to defeat Tarec Saffiedine by decision.
185lbs- ANTONIO CARLOS JUNIOR (7-2-0 1NC) vs MARVIN VETTORI (11-2-0)
In the Middleweight division, TUF Brazil Heavyweight winner “Shoe face” Antonio Carlos Junior makes his seventh UFC appearance when he takes on promotional sophomore Marvin Vettori of Italy. Vettori subbed Alberto Uda in his debut after submitting another Brazilian in Igor Araujo in his final pre-UFC bout. Junior got back in the win column in his most recent outing, just 1 fight removed from his upset defeat at the hands of the growing legend that is Dan Kelly.
The Brazilian is 2 inches taller and will have a marked 5″ reach advantage. Vettori is younger by 3-years.
Vettori recently made the move to King’s MMA to help round out his game. The former Venator champion has submitted 8 opponents along with a pair of knockouts and a single submission win. Both of his defeats have come on the scorecards. In his last bout, Vettori countered an early takedown from Uda into a completed takedown of his own. He held top control for the majority of the round before skillfully transitioning to a guillotine for the tap. In pre-UFC footage, he has shown a willingness to give up position for submission with mixed results.
His striking is still a work in progress. Vettori does his best work in close range, specifically from the clinch where he will also look to drag his adversary to the mat.
A highly regarded BJJ Black belt, “Shoe face” has finished 5 of his 6 wins by submission- 2 in the UFC. Both of his octagon taps game in the third round. Interestingly enough, it was is cardio that failed him in his loss to Kelly. ACJ got off to a strong start, but as the fight progressed, Kelly was able to turn the action in his favour before garnering the stoppage in the final frame. Junior is coming off his UFC personal best 7 takedowns, pushing his total to 19 over 5 official contests. Once on the mat, Antonio is a strong top position player and is difficult to get out from under. He has also demonstrated a sound back mount, subbing Eddie Gordon by RNC.
On the feet, the Brazilian has some power, but his striking is the secondary aspect of his game.
Both men do their best work on the mat, but Carlos Junior is simply better. Patrick Cummings showed that he can be taken down, but Vettori doesn’t have that strong a wrestling game. “Shoe face” will find success putting Vettori on his back and holding the superior position. Vettori’s willingness to attack on the mat will create openings for Antonio to advance position and set up submission opportunities-
my prediction is Antonio Carlos Junior to defeat Marvin Vettori by submission.
170lbs- MIKE PYLE (27-12-1) vs ALEX GARCIA (13-3-0)
In the Welterweight division, long-time UFC veteran Mike “Quicksand” Pyle meets Tri-Star trained Alex “Dominican Nightmare” Garcia. Pyle is just 2-4 over his last 6-fights, most recently suffering a second round knockout defeat against Alberto Mina. Garcia is also coming off a stoppage defeat, losing by TKO to Sean Strickland and falling to 3-2 in the UFC.
At 6’0″ tall, Pyle is 3 inches taller than his foe and will have a 2″ reach advantage. Garcia is the younger man by 12 years.
With 17 fights inside the Octagon, Pyle has a wealth of experience to draw upon. Over his entire career, he has finished 16 opponents by submission, 7 by knockout and is 4-2 on the scorecards. The stoppage defeats have also started to pile up, with 6 losses by knockout and 4 by sub- 5 of his last 6 UFC losses have come by knockout. Pyle has vastly improved his striking, which led to a career resurgence. He does decent work from the clinch, landing hard elbows, knees, and short punches. Conversely, his chin is a clear point of vulnerability that heavy handed opponents continue to exploit.
Despite his lofty submission totals, “Quicksand” has not won by sub since 2010, 14-fights ago.
Of Garcia’s 13 career wins, 10 have come by stoppage, but only 1 in the UFC. Since making his promotional debut, Alex has experienced a notable increase in fight time. Prior to making the jump, he had stopped 8 of his 10 wins inside the opening round. In the UFC, he has just a single first round finish over 5 outings. Garcia hits hard on the feet and couples his power striking attack with a workable wrestling game. He has completed 19-takedowns over his last 4-bouts. When on the feet, Alex has power in his hands, throwing a hefty right hand and unloading the majority of his offense in single strikes.
Garcia’s cardio is a major concern. He has been known to fade, and was finished by Strickland late in the bout.
As mentioned above, Pyle has had issues early with power strikers and Garcia has struggled to maintain his pace in longer bouts. Both have pathways to victory, but “Quicksand” will have to survive early to take advantage of his foe’s susceptibility. If Alex opts to take Pyle down, he needs to be mindful of Pyle’s aggressive guard. That being said, Pyle’s chin is simply too vulnerable to overlook against a power puncher like the “Dominican Nightmare”. Garcia hits too hard and may only need to land once to finish his foe-
my prediction is Alex Garcia to defeat Mike Pyle by knockout.
170lbs- ALEX OLIVEIRA (15-3-1 1NC vs TIM MEANS (26-7-1)
With the changes to the card, just 1 fight remains on the Fight Pass portion of the prelims and it will feature Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira taking on “The Dirty Bird” Tim Means at 170-pounds. Oliveira has won back to back fights, including defeating former Bellator Lightweight champion Will Brooks in his last match. Means is an impressive 6-1 over his last 7 bouts, defeating Sabah Homasi at UFC 202 in his most recent venture to the Octagon.
Both men formerly fought at Lightweight. Means is 3 inches taller, but will give up an inch of reach to his foe. The Brazilian is the younger man by 4-years.
“The Dirty Bird” is known for his lethal Muay Thai striking arsenal, recording 18-wins by knockout. Means offers a variety of strikings tools and is dangerous both at range and in close. On the outside, he will use his right hand to disrupt the timing of his foe with a jab or by constantly pushing it forward. Tim finished John Howard with a left hand and he can counter strike as well. His kicking game is solid, chopping away at his opponent’s legs or throwing a push kick to the midsection. In the clinch, Means will unleash knees to the body and brutal slashing elbows to the head.
Means has a solid TDD at 63%, but has been taken down 5-times in his last 2 fights and has surrendered 17-takedowns over his 4 UFC losses.
Oliveira is coming off the biggest win of his career, but it was severely tainted by his inability to make weight. “Cowboy” took Brooks down 4-times and has leaned heavily on his mat game with 14-takedowns over his 5 UFC victories. He scores the majority of his completions from the clinch, working on his foe along the cage before changing levels. Once on the mat, he can either maintain control in the guard or opt to advance in pursuit of a submission. The latter, has cost him position in previous fights. Alex’s striking is decent, but he will get a little wild and overextend himself when trading. He has 10 wins by knockout.
Oliveira has limited his last 2 opponents to a combined 28 significant strikes over 28:30 of cage time.
This fight will most likely come down to how successful Oliveira is at implementing his takedown game. If he can put Means on his back with regularity, it will both score points and negate the striking repertoire of the American. As mentioned above, Oliveira scores the majority of his takedowns from the clinch which is an area where Means is very effective at doing damage from. Look for Tim to attack his opponent once they engage in close quarters, making the clinch position unfavourable for the Brazilian. This will discourage Oliveira from closing the distance and subsequently force him to trade at range with a superior striker. If taken down, Means need to remain active and get vertical quickly,
but my prediction is Tim Means to defeat Alex Oliveira by TKO
170lbs- BRANDON THATCH (11-4-0) vs NIKO PRICE (8-0-0)
Originally scheduled to open the card, Brandon “Rukus” Thatch and the debuting Niko “The Hybrid” Price get moved to the televised prelims for their Welterweight scrap. Thatch has lost a trio of bouts, all by submission, since starting his UFC run with back to back TKO finishes. Price debuts undefeated with a 2-0 record in 2016- he is coming off the first 3-round fight of his career.
Price is replacing Sabah Homasi on roughly 2-week’s notice. Thatch is 2 inches taller than Price, but the UFC newcomer is the younger man by 4-years.
Price has gone the distance just once in his career compared to 6 wins by knockout and a submission win in his first pro bout. The quality footage of Niko is hard to locate. He appears to be a scrapper, willing to stand in the pocket and trade. In one of his more recent wins, he unloaded a high volume barrage that both hurt and exhausted his opponent who was still standing when the fight was called. “The Hybrid” will change levels for a takedown periodically, but that is a secondary aspect of his offense.
Price has competed entirely under the Fight Time Promotion with his last 3 foes compiling a combined 21-15 record.
A fourth consecutive loss of any nature will almost certainly spell the end of the line for Thatch. He showed a lot of promise early, adding career knockouts 7 and 8 to his win total to start his UFC career. Thatch offers a dangerous Muay Thai attack. “Rukus” does a decent job of using his reach and will attack with a variety of weapons. To further magnify his reach advantage, Thatch cuts off the cage well and limits his opponent’s room to move. On the inside, he can do a lot of damage from the clinch by controlling his foe’s head and landing knees and elbows. During his current skid, Thatch’s defensive grappling has been a major focal point. His opponents have both found success taking him down and keeping him down before getting the finish.
Gunnar Nelson scored a knockdown before submitting Brandon, but over his last 4 fights he has given up 7 completed takedowns.
Price would be smart to focus his attack on exploiting the clear area of weakness in Thatch’s game. While he has shown glimpses of a ground game, it would be a clear deviation from what has made him successful in recent fights. Price is aggressive on the feet, which should open him up to counters against a longer and more technically sound striker like Thatch. Price’s first-round finish heavy record won’t hold up well on short notice against a sizable step up in competition. Thatch’s back is against the wall, but he comes through-
my prediction is Brandon Thatch to defeat Niko Price by TKO.
