Diggin’ Deep on UFC 207: Main card preview
from Dayne Fox - Bloody Elbow
TJ Dillashaw (13-3) vs. John Lineker (29-7), Bantamweight
While there are no guarantees that the winner of this contest will receive a title shot, there is little doubt the victor would be the favorite to challenge either Dominick Cruz or Cody Garbrandt -- whoever wins the title later in the night. Many believe it should be Dillashaw challenging Cruz anyway as Cruz took the belt from him in a highly controversial decision where many believed Dillashaw was the rightful winner. After losing the title, Dillashaw went and avenged one of his earlier career losses to Raphael Assuncao at UFC 200 in hopes of getting another crack at the belt only to be told he’s not getting the next shot. Upon receiving that news, Dillashaw asked for the contest with Lineker.
Beating the Brazilian isn’t a small feat. Lineker is undefeated at bantamweight at 4-0 since making the move to his new weight class. His last victory came over John Dodson who had previously been undefeated to anyone not named Demetrious Johnson in his UFC run. He’s been able to overcome his lack of size with his power that is unheard of for a man of such small physical stature. That he is able to secure as many finishes as he has in weight divisions that don’t regularly have their fights end before the fifteen minute time limit makes him that much marketable… so long as he is able to make weight.
Lineker’s strategy is completely based on pressure, hunting down his opponent so that he might be able to land his powerful punches. His ability to use angles and cut off the cage comes and goes as he’ll take to following his opponent at times. Lineker is at his best on the counter, though he is capable of leading the dance as well. Few are better at attacking the body outside of the clinch as he prefers to fight in the pocket, though it would be foolish to discount what he is able to do in close quarters as well.
Dillashaw employs a much more unorthodox approach, relying on fancy footwork and lateral movement to move in and out of the pocket. Few pile up the volume like he does as he puts together lengthy combinations that are often punctuated by a kick to any of the three levels. Though he typically ends up dealing more damage than what he ends up eating, he does usually end up eating a shot or two in the process of his high output approach which gives pause to think this contest will be the cakewalk many think it will be for the former champion.
Knowing this, expect Dillashaw to turn to his wrestling at various points of the contest. Lineker isn’t known as a wrestler as he rarely looks to take the fight to the ground himself, but make no mistake that it isn’t a chink in his armor by any means. He has yet to be taken down since moving up in weight with Ali Bagautinov finding regular success in that capacity. That contest was three years ago and Lineker has shown much better energy levels at 135, making it more difficult to wear him out enough to take him to the ground. Dillashaw isn’t a powerful wrestler, but he’s very technically sound and shows great timing on his entries in addition to his own strong takedown defense.
It's rare that Lineker finds an opponent who will likely outpace him in terms of volume, but Dillashaw is elite in that category. So what this contest really boils down to is whether or not Lineker can catch Dillashaw with a kill shot. Dillashaw has been KO’d before, though that last occurred five years ago when Dillashaw was still a raw prospect. He is much more fundamentally sound now, though Lineker has continued to show growth in his striking technique himself. If it goes the distance, Dillashaw is a strong favorite. If it ends before that point, expect Lineker to have finished the job.
Dillashaw via decision
Dong Hyun Kim (21-3-1, 1 NC) vs. Tarec Saffiedine (16-5), Welterweight
Though no one expects Kim or Saffiedine to become a title contender, this contest is pivotal for each of them if they want to make any sort of a run towards receiving a title shot. Saffiedine probably has a bit more room for leeway as he is only 30-years old, but his inability to remain healthy has stunted his UFC run, having competed only four times since Strikeforce officially integrated into the UFC in 2013. He should be in the prime of his career at this point, so Saffiedine needs to make a run now… particularly given his history with injuries.
The ironic thing is that it has been Kim who has struggled with injuries more as of late, having been on the sidelines for over a year. Now 35-years old, it appears that a title run is a pipe dream, though he can still play a role as a gatekeeper to the top ten for another year or two. The biggest positive that he has going for him is he has finished his opponent in his last four victories after earning a reputation as a decision machine earlier in his career.
The reason for Kim’s rush of finishes has been his newfound penchant for flashy strikes, a habit he picked up after picking up a Hail Mary finish of Erick Silva when near the throes of defeat. Spinning backfists, jumping knees, Superman punches… the type of strikes he never used to throw. It made it pretty easy for Tyron Woodley to put his lights out – they are high-risk for a reason -- and Kim did settle down a bit in his subsequent fights after that, but he still has that desire to score another highlight reel finish. When not trying to wow the fans, Kim employs a clinch-heavy approach where he uses his massive frame to wear down his opponents in addition to hitting trips sharpened by his judoka background.
Saffiedine is a much more traditional kickboxer who rarely throws anything with flash. He became best known for his leg kicks after chewing up Nate Marquardt’s leg to take the Strikeforce title and though they are a large part of his arsenal, it is hardly the only thing he does well. An expert at using angles, Saffiedine establishes his range with a steady jab while mixing in efficient combinations. He doesn’t have a lot of power, though he makes up for it with his sheer volume and accuracy.
What will likely determine the outcome is whether or not Saffiedine will be able to stop Kim’s takedown attempts. Saffiedine has had great success stuffing the takedowns of traditional wrestlers such as Rick Story and Jake Ellenberger, but Kim’s judo trips and throws are a different ballgame. Kim offers suffocating control from the top with steady if not overpowering ground and pound. Saffiedine is active from the bottom in avoiding damage and looking for sweeps to get back to his feet, but he isn’t a real submission threat.
Saffiedine is one of the best pure technical strikers in the division who is held back by his lack of power. It’s unlikely he’ll be able to finish off the Korean, so he’ll need to outpoint him. That isn’t an easy task if Kim is able to bully Belgium native. In what should be a razor-thin decision, I see Kim doing just enough to sway at least two judges.
Kim via decision
Louis Smolka (11-2) vs. Ray Borg (9-2), Flyweight
Smolka and Borg could very well represent the future of the flyweight division, but right now both are coming off of upset losses and badly need a victory to get back on track. Smolka’s loss in particular was shocking as he allowed Brandon Moreno to submit him in under a round after Moreno took the contest on short notice. Smolka admitted he took Moreno lightly and this could serve as the wake-up call he needs to take subsequent opponents seriously regardless of their status. At 25 years old, Smolka shouldn’t be anywhere near his prime.
Borg is even younger at 23 years old and still very raw in his development for someone with the amount of UFC experience he has. His most recent setback was very indicative of that as Justin Scoggins manhandled him as Borg is small even for the flyweight division. As Demetrious Johnson has shown, that is an issue that can be overcome and Borg has the wrestling chops and physical skills to do just that… he just needs more time.
Many believe that Borg is the quickest fighter on the planet, even quicker than the aforementioned Johnson. Borg uses that speed to catch opponents off-guard to nail reactive takedowns and turning the fight into a game of transitions. Even if unable to finish the takedown, he chains his attempts together at such a furious pace that he is usually able to create a scramble at the very least. He isn’t just a transition fighter either as he is a smooth grappler as well.
Smolka may be one of the few who can keep up with Borg on the ground. He’s almost as quick as Borg with just as much of a penchant for taking the back. While Smolka has proven to be a poor wrestler – the area that Borg will look to expose – Smolka is also one of the best at operating off of his back with his long limbs making him a real threat. Borg’s small stature make him a difficult subject to submit, but if anyone is capable of doing it, it would be Smolka.
Though Smolka has been perfectly content to go to the ground with most opponents, this is one of the few times that he would undeniably rather keep the fight standing as Borg’s striking largely consists of a flurry of punches to close the distance for takedowns. With a reach of only 63", it’s difficult for Borg to do much more than that given his inexperience in that department. On the other side of the spectrum, Smolka throws a steady jab with his 68" reach and possesses an absolutely devastating clinch game where he wracks his opposition with knees to the body, making good use of the leverage his height provides.
This is a very closely matched contest that can go either way. Smolka is accurate enough that he could end up catching Borg with a powerful shot and finishing him off in that fashion, but that is far from a guarantee. Though Smolka is a talented grappler, he has yet to face someone of Borg’s caliber and he doesn’t have the size or wrestling to bully him the same way Scoggins did. I don’t have a lot of confidence in the pick, but I’m going with Borg.
Borg via decision
from Dayne Fox - Bloody Elbow
TJ Dillashaw (13-3) vs. John Lineker (29-7), Bantamweight
While there are no guarantees that the winner of this contest will receive a title shot, there is little doubt the victor would be the favorite to challenge either Dominick Cruz or Cody Garbrandt -- whoever wins the title later in the night. Many believe it should be Dillashaw challenging Cruz anyway as Cruz took the belt from him in a highly controversial decision where many believed Dillashaw was the rightful winner. After losing the title, Dillashaw went and avenged one of his earlier career losses to Raphael Assuncao at UFC 200 in hopes of getting another crack at the belt only to be told he’s not getting the next shot. Upon receiving that news, Dillashaw asked for the contest with Lineker.
Beating the Brazilian isn’t a small feat. Lineker is undefeated at bantamweight at 4-0 since making the move to his new weight class. His last victory came over John Dodson who had previously been undefeated to anyone not named Demetrious Johnson in his UFC run. He’s been able to overcome his lack of size with his power that is unheard of for a man of such small physical stature. That he is able to secure as many finishes as he has in weight divisions that don’t regularly have their fights end before the fifteen minute time limit makes him that much marketable… so long as he is able to make weight.
Lineker’s strategy is completely based on pressure, hunting down his opponent so that he might be able to land his powerful punches. His ability to use angles and cut off the cage comes and goes as he’ll take to following his opponent at times. Lineker is at his best on the counter, though he is capable of leading the dance as well. Few are better at attacking the body outside of the clinch as he prefers to fight in the pocket, though it would be foolish to discount what he is able to do in close quarters as well.
Dillashaw employs a much more unorthodox approach, relying on fancy footwork and lateral movement to move in and out of the pocket. Few pile up the volume like he does as he puts together lengthy combinations that are often punctuated by a kick to any of the three levels. Though he typically ends up dealing more damage than what he ends up eating, he does usually end up eating a shot or two in the process of his high output approach which gives pause to think this contest will be the cakewalk many think it will be for the former champion.
Knowing this, expect Dillashaw to turn to his wrestling at various points of the contest. Lineker isn’t known as a wrestler as he rarely looks to take the fight to the ground himself, but make no mistake that it isn’t a chink in his armor by any means. He has yet to be taken down since moving up in weight with Ali Bagautinov finding regular success in that capacity. That contest was three years ago and Lineker has shown much better energy levels at 135, making it more difficult to wear him out enough to take him to the ground. Dillashaw isn’t a powerful wrestler, but he’s very technically sound and shows great timing on his entries in addition to his own strong takedown defense.
It's rare that Lineker finds an opponent who will likely outpace him in terms of volume, but Dillashaw is elite in that category. So what this contest really boils down to is whether or not Lineker can catch Dillashaw with a kill shot. Dillashaw has been KO’d before, though that last occurred five years ago when Dillashaw was still a raw prospect. He is much more fundamentally sound now, though Lineker has continued to show growth in his striking technique himself. If it goes the distance, Dillashaw is a strong favorite. If it ends before that point, expect Lineker to have finished the job.
Dillashaw via decision
Dong Hyun Kim (21-3-1, 1 NC) vs. Tarec Saffiedine (16-5), Welterweight
Though no one expects Kim or Saffiedine to become a title contender, this contest is pivotal for each of them if they want to make any sort of a run towards receiving a title shot. Saffiedine probably has a bit more room for leeway as he is only 30-years old, but his inability to remain healthy has stunted his UFC run, having competed only four times since Strikeforce officially integrated into the UFC in 2013. He should be in the prime of his career at this point, so Saffiedine needs to make a run now… particularly given his history with injuries.
The ironic thing is that it has been Kim who has struggled with injuries more as of late, having been on the sidelines for over a year. Now 35-years old, it appears that a title run is a pipe dream, though he can still play a role as a gatekeeper to the top ten for another year or two. The biggest positive that he has going for him is he has finished his opponent in his last four victories after earning a reputation as a decision machine earlier in his career.
The reason for Kim’s rush of finishes has been his newfound penchant for flashy strikes, a habit he picked up after picking up a Hail Mary finish of Erick Silva when near the throes of defeat. Spinning backfists, jumping knees, Superman punches… the type of strikes he never used to throw. It made it pretty easy for Tyron Woodley to put his lights out – they are high-risk for a reason -- and Kim did settle down a bit in his subsequent fights after that, but he still has that desire to score another highlight reel finish. When not trying to wow the fans, Kim employs a clinch-heavy approach where he uses his massive frame to wear down his opponents in addition to hitting trips sharpened by his judoka background.
Saffiedine is a much more traditional kickboxer who rarely throws anything with flash. He became best known for his leg kicks after chewing up Nate Marquardt’s leg to take the Strikeforce title and though they are a large part of his arsenal, it is hardly the only thing he does well. An expert at using angles, Saffiedine establishes his range with a steady jab while mixing in efficient combinations. He doesn’t have a lot of power, though he makes up for it with his sheer volume and accuracy.
What will likely determine the outcome is whether or not Saffiedine will be able to stop Kim’s takedown attempts. Saffiedine has had great success stuffing the takedowns of traditional wrestlers such as Rick Story and Jake Ellenberger, but Kim’s judo trips and throws are a different ballgame. Kim offers suffocating control from the top with steady if not overpowering ground and pound. Saffiedine is active from the bottom in avoiding damage and looking for sweeps to get back to his feet, but he isn’t a real submission threat.
Saffiedine is one of the best pure technical strikers in the division who is held back by his lack of power. It’s unlikely he’ll be able to finish off the Korean, so he’ll need to outpoint him. That isn’t an easy task if Kim is able to bully Belgium native. In what should be a razor-thin decision, I see Kim doing just enough to sway at least two judges.
Kim via decision
Louis Smolka (11-2) vs. Ray Borg (9-2), Flyweight
Smolka and Borg could very well represent the future of the flyweight division, but right now both are coming off of upset losses and badly need a victory to get back on track. Smolka’s loss in particular was shocking as he allowed Brandon Moreno to submit him in under a round after Moreno took the contest on short notice. Smolka admitted he took Moreno lightly and this could serve as the wake-up call he needs to take subsequent opponents seriously regardless of their status. At 25 years old, Smolka shouldn’t be anywhere near his prime.
Borg is even younger at 23 years old and still very raw in his development for someone with the amount of UFC experience he has. His most recent setback was very indicative of that as Justin Scoggins manhandled him as Borg is small even for the flyweight division. As Demetrious Johnson has shown, that is an issue that can be overcome and Borg has the wrestling chops and physical skills to do just that… he just needs more time.
Many believe that Borg is the quickest fighter on the planet, even quicker than the aforementioned Johnson. Borg uses that speed to catch opponents off-guard to nail reactive takedowns and turning the fight into a game of transitions. Even if unable to finish the takedown, he chains his attempts together at such a furious pace that he is usually able to create a scramble at the very least. He isn’t just a transition fighter either as he is a smooth grappler as well.
Smolka may be one of the few who can keep up with Borg on the ground. He’s almost as quick as Borg with just as much of a penchant for taking the back. While Smolka has proven to be a poor wrestler – the area that Borg will look to expose – Smolka is also one of the best at operating off of his back with his long limbs making him a real threat. Borg’s small stature make him a difficult subject to submit, but if anyone is capable of doing it, it would be Smolka.
Though Smolka has been perfectly content to go to the ground with most opponents, this is one of the few times that he would undeniably rather keep the fight standing as Borg’s striking largely consists of a flurry of punches to close the distance for takedowns. With a reach of only 63", it’s difficult for Borg to do much more than that given his inexperience in that department. On the other side of the spectrum, Smolka throws a steady jab with his 68" reach and possesses an absolutely devastating clinch game where he wracks his opposition with knees to the body, making good use of the leverage his height provides.
This is a very closely matched contest that can go either way. Smolka is accurate enough that he could end up catching Borg with a powerful shot and finishing him off in that fashion, but that is far from a guarantee. Though Smolka is a talented grappler, he has yet to face someone of Borg’s caliber and he doesn’t have the size or wrestling to bully him the same way Scoggins did. I don’t have a lot of confidence in the pick, but I’m going with Borg.
Borg via decision
| MMAjunkie readers’ consensus picks 2016: 131-80 (62%) |
Nunes (55%) |
Cruz (74%) |
Dillashaw (75%) |
Kim (70%) |
Smolka (70%) |
| Ben Fowlkes @BenFowlkesMMA 2016: 135-76 (64%) |
Rousey |
Cruz |
Dillashaw |
Kim |
Smolka |
| John Morgan @MMAjunkieJohn 2016: 133-78 (63%) |
Rousey |
Cruz |
Lineker |
Kim |
Smolka |
| Matt Erickson @MMAjunkieMatt 2016: 133-78 (63%) |
Rousey |
Garbrandt |
Lineker |
Saffiedine |
Smolka |
| Mike Bohn @MikeBohnMMA 2016: 132-69 (63%) 
|
Rousey |
Cruz |
Dillashaw |
Kim |
Smolka |
| Brent Brookhouse @BrentBrookhouse 2016: 131-80 (62%) |
Nunes |
Garbrandt |
Lineker |
Kim |
Smolka |
| Steven Marrocco @MMAjunkieSteven 2016: 130-81 (62%) |
Rousey |
Cruz |
Dillashaw |
Kim |
Smolka |
| Dann Stupp @DannStupp 2016: 130-81 (62%)
|
Rousey |
Cruz |
Dillashaw |
Kim |
Borg |
| George Garcia @MMAjunkieGeorge 2016: 127-84 (60%) |
Nunes |
Cruz |
Dillashaw |
Kim |
Borg |
| Brian Garcia @thegoze 2016: 127-84 (60%) |
Rousey |
Cruz |
Dillashaw |
Kim |
Borg |
| Fernanda Prates @nandaprates_ 2016: 85-60 (59%) |
Rousey |
Cruz |
Dillashaw |
Kim |
Smolka |
Main Card Plays for UFC 207
from MMA Odds Breaker
Bantamweight title bout: Dominick Cruz (-210) vs. Cody Garbrandt (+170)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Cruz should be a -450 betting favorite heading into this bantamweight title fight, and I see him successfully defending his 135-pound strap against undefeated Team Alpha Male product Garbrandt. I think “No Love” will find no luck against Cruz’s style, being unable to connect and do damage. I see Cruz avoiding Garbrandt’s power-shots and out-striking him for the majority of 25-minutes of action en route to a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards.
Gabe’s Call: Cruz by Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Cruz (-210) 8.4u to win 4u
Welterweight bout: Dong Hyun Kim (-145) vs. Tarec Saffiedine (+125)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I have been going back and forth as to who my official pick is for this welterweight contest. I think this bout will come down to whether Saffiedine can find success in keeping the fight on the feet and outpointing the South Korean. If “Stun Gun” can find success in taking Saffiedine down, then the fight will be in his world. He has improved his striking and has been recording knockouts, but he also has solid fight IQ, and I expect him to employ it in this contest. I am not confident in that though, as Saffiedine is not known to be a finisher, so Kim may want to risk it and look for the knockout. That said, I think the two most likely outcomes to this 170-pound contest are Kim by Decision and Saffiedine by Decision, so the play I favor for this particular contest is the Total of Over 2.5 rounds at -170, as I see this welterweight affair hitting the judges’ scorecards for a decision more often than not.
Gabe’s Call: Kim by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (-170) 2.55u to win 1.5u
from MMA Odds Breaker
Bantamweight title bout: Dominick Cruz (-210) vs. Cody Garbrandt (+170)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Cruz should be a -450 betting favorite heading into this bantamweight title fight, and I see him successfully defending his 135-pound strap against undefeated Team Alpha Male product Garbrandt. I think “No Love” will find no luck against Cruz’s style, being unable to connect and do damage. I see Cruz avoiding Garbrandt’s power-shots and out-striking him for the majority of 25-minutes of action en route to a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards.
Gabe’s Call: Cruz by Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Cruz (-210) 8.4u to win 4u
Welterweight bout: Dong Hyun Kim (-145) vs. Tarec Saffiedine (+125)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I have been going back and forth as to who my official pick is for this welterweight contest. I think this bout will come down to whether Saffiedine can find success in keeping the fight on the feet and outpointing the South Korean. If “Stun Gun” can find success in taking Saffiedine down, then the fight will be in his world. He has improved his striking and has been recording knockouts, but he also has solid fight IQ, and I expect him to employ it in this contest. I am not confident in that though, as Saffiedine is not known to be a finisher, so Kim may want to risk it and look for the knockout. That said, I think the two most likely outcomes to this 170-pound contest are Kim by Decision and Saffiedine by Decision, so the play I favor for this particular contest is the Total of Over 2.5 rounds at -170, as I see this welterweight affair hitting the judges’ scorecards for a decision more often than not.
Gabe’s Call: Kim by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Over 2.5 rounds (-170) 2.55u to win 1.5u
UFC 207 Predictions
from CBS Sports Staff
With the return of Rousey, we gathered up our most intelligent pickers to take a crack at the top three fights on the card with an explanation of some of their picks. Those experts include:
Bill Reiter (National Columnist)
Robby Kalland (MMA/Boxing writer)
Matthew Coca (Producer)
Michael Mormile (MMA producer)
Brandon Wise (MMA writer/editor)
Reiter: Nunes / Garbrandt / Dillashaw
Kalland: Nunes / Garbrandt / Dillashaw
Coca: Rousey / Garbrandt / Dillashaw
Mormile: Nunes / Cruz / Dillashaw
Wise: Rousey / Garbrandt / Linekar
Reiter on why Nunes wins: Rousey is off balance, on life-tilt and heading into a fight against one of the MMA's best strikers. Nunes is a foe who has never been submitted since her pro career began and who represents a Frankenstein effect for Rousey: A top-notch opponent in the division Rousey herself created that, born of that cauldron of excellence and changing champions, will end the career of one of UFC's most notable personalities.
Wise on why Rousey wins: They say "Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned." That needs to be changed to Rousey because she is far and away the best women's UFC fighter we have seen in the octagon. When you think that only two of her 13 professional fights have even made it out of the first round, coupled with the fact that she is pissed off with a point to make, it's hard to bet against the "Rowdy" one.
Mormile on why Cruz wins: Dominick Cruz will retain his belt for the same reason he wins every fight. His striking and movement is unique. Cruz has a high fight IQ and if he gets in danger, he takes the action to the ground. I don't think Garbrandt will be able consistently land his massive shots on the veteran champion. Cruz wins a unanimous decision.
from CBS Sports Staff
With the return of Rousey, we gathered up our most intelligent pickers to take a crack at the top three fights on the card with an explanation of some of their picks. Those experts include:
Bill Reiter (National Columnist)
Robby Kalland (MMA/Boxing writer)
Matthew Coca (Producer)
Michael Mormile (MMA producer)
Brandon Wise (MMA writer/editor)
Reiter: Nunes / Garbrandt / Dillashaw
Kalland: Nunes / Garbrandt / Dillashaw
Coca: Rousey / Garbrandt / Dillashaw
Mormile: Nunes / Cruz / Dillashaw
Wise: Rousey / Garbrandt / Linekar
Reiter on why Nunes wins: Rousey is off balance, on life-tilt and heading into a fight against one of the MMA's best strikers. Nunes is a foe who has never been submitted since her pro career began and who represents a Frankenstein effect for Rousey: A top-notch opponent in the division Rousey herself created that, born of that cauldron of excellence and changing champions, will end the career of one of UFC's most notable personalities.
Wise on why Rousey wins: They say "Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned." That needs to be changed to Rousey because she is far and away the best women's UFC fighter we have seen in the octagon. When you think that only two of her 13 professional fights have even made it out of the first round, coupled with the fact that she is pissed off with a point to make, it's hard to bet against the "Rowdy" one.
Mormile on why Cruz wins: Dominick Cruz will retain his belt for the same reason he wins every fight. His striking and movement is unique. Cruz has a high fight IQ and if he gets in danger, he takes the action to the ground. I don't think Garbrandt will be able consistently land his massive shots on the veteran champion. Cruz wins a unanimous decision.
Over/Under Totals for UFC 207
from MMA Odds Breaker
Welterweight bout: Alex Garcia (-175) vs Mike Pyle (+155)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I think both 170-pounders stand a good chance of finishing this fight early, so I favor the Total of Under 1.5 rounds at +125 here. Both fighters are very capable finishers who themselves are not the most durable, so it is likely that one of them manages to put the other away. I lean towards Garcia for my pick, as he is the younger fighter of the two and packs more power in his hands.
Gabe’s Call: Garcia by T/KO (punches, 1:48 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 1.5 rounds (+125) 1u to win 1.25u
Welterweight bout: Brandon Thatch (-175) vs Niko Price (+155)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Price will be making his short notice promotional debut in this contest against Thatch, replacing an injured Sabah Hamasi. This is a pairing of two finishers in the UFC’s welterweight division and I think there is a good chance this fight does not make it out of the opening stanza, as has been the case with the majority of their bouts. As for my official pick, I am not confident in Thatch, but I will side with him just because he is the veteran and has his back against the wall.
Gabe’s Call: Thatch by T/KO (strikes, 0:41 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 2.5 rounds (-145) 1.45u to win 1u
from MMA Odds Breaker
Welterweight bout: Alex Garcia (-175) vs Mike Pyle (+155)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I think both 170-pounders stand a good chance of finishing this fight early, so I favor the Total of Under 1.5 rounds at +125 here. Both fighters are very capable finishers who themselves are not the most durable, so it is likely that one of them manages to put the other away. I lean towards Garcia for my pick, as he is the younger fighter of the two and packs more power in his hands.
Gabe’s Call: Garcia by T/KO (punches, 1:48 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 1.5 rounds (+125) 1u to win 1.25u
Welterweight bout: Brandon Thatch (-175) vs Niko Price (+155)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Price will be making his short notice promotional debut in this contest against Thatch, replacing an injured Sabah Hamasi. This is a pairing of two finishers in the UFC’s welterweight division and I think there is a good chance this fight does not make it out of the opening stanza, as has been the case with the majority of their bouts. As for my official pick, I am not confident in Thatch, but I will side with him just because he is the veteran and has his back against the wall.
Gabe’s Call: Thatch by T/KO (strikes, 0:41 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 2.5 rounds (-145) 1.45u to win 1u
UFC 207: Bloody Elbow staff picks and predictions
Amanda Nunes vs. Ronda Rousey
Mookie Alexander: I shouldn’t be picking Rousey here. The uncertain state of her mindset after the Holm loss, in addition to sticking with Tarverdyan, as well as Nunes being a much more powerful striker than Holm, along with the recent footage of her striking trai---you get the point. The signs point to Rousey being a Mike Tyson-esque fighter who was so used to bullying the opposition, then fell apart once bullying everyone was found to be unattainable. Is this going to be what becomes of Rousey? How will she respond to getting hit by Nunes? Do you weigh her loss to Holm more heavily than her utter dominance over virtually everyone else in the women’s bantamweight division over the years? Let’s be real here, Holm and Nunes aren’t the same fighter. Holm’s counterstriking befuddled Ronda. Nunes is certainly more aggressive than Holm but has dodgy cardio, so you have to wonder if she’ll be making a push to finish in round 1. That could backfire on her and she could get overaggressive, tossed to the mat, and Rousey does her thing. Alternatively, Nunes just snipes Rousey and surely ends her fighting career as we know it. Ohhhhh I don’t know what to do.
Alright, I’ll go with what I dreamed on Tuesday night, Ronda Rousey by armbar, round 2. No, I don’t feel very good about it.
Victor Rodriguez: Rousey is still training with Tarverdyan. Do you remember what his tutelage sounds like? I do. What success has anyone under his tutelage really accomplished? Travis Browne went from heavyweight threat to punching bag, Jake Ellenberger almost flamed out of the UFC after a decade in the game before getting the hell out of dodge to join Cordero across town, and Jessamyn Duke went from hot prospect to limbo. Yet Rousey is still training with Tarverdyan. Ronda has succeeded despite her time under Edmond, not because of it. And I want to make this clear - I not only want this fight to be competitive, I actually want Ronda to win in the hopes of shutting up all of the vile, stupid bullshit-spewing troglodytes that cheer for her demise as a sport in and of itself. That said, there’s no way I can put any faith into it. Why? Rousey is still training with Tarverdyan. She’s loyal to the end, and is still sticking with one of the worst coaches in the game. Not only that, but she’s facing a hellacious striker that’s cleaned up a lot of her already terrifying striking game, uses range and has better control of footwork and timing. Plus, Nunes can use a size and weight advantage with her prep work to avoid the takedown to defend and make this her fight. A few key things have to go really wrong for Amanda for Ronda to win this fight, and I just don’t see it happening.
Amanda Nunes by TKO.
Fraser Coffeen: This one basically comes down entirely to Rousey’s mental game, which makes it tough, because no one can really know where her head is at. That said, all signs point to her not being in a good place - the massive time off, the walk away from the staredown, the refusal to do media… it’s all bad signs. I worry that there’s going to be some anti-Rousey revisionism going on in coming years about how she was never that good anyway. Which is nonsense - prime Rousey wins this 9 times out of 10. But this Rousey?
Amanda Nunes, KO, R1
Ram Gilboa: There’s a lot of talk about Rousey’s mentality coming into the Nunes fight. Obviously, her mentality is going to play a very big role here, as this is a fight, in a cage. But, I think there’s something bigger here: Rousey hasn’t fought in well over a year. She spent at least the first two months of that period not training; probably more like three. Techno-physically – that’s a thing – I’m afraid she will find out the MMA world catches up to its luminaries pretty quickly. Rousey’s return talk also completely overshadowed Nunes, the champ, you know, and her own recent accomplishments and advancements. And Nunes is a tough match-up for even a top condition Rousey, who won’t outbox her - not while under Tarverdyan, maybe not ever now – and won’t get any free armbars off the 3 years black belt. (Nunes also holds a brown in Judo, as much as it says something against Rousey’s Bronze, and Silver).
Rousey got figured out once – true, by solid opposition - and fighters of a certain age, style and upbringing, once they get figured out, they rarely get unfigured. Especially against top competition, Ask Fedor, or Chuck. Rousey is younger than they were when their losses started piling up, but WMMA is younger too, and with the benefit of prior wisdom, it is catching up in a quicker pace. I’m afraid – well, to the point that I care and sympathize – that Rousey will find out that head and arm Kubinage throws will pretty much magically altogether stop being effective in 2017 WMMA.
Following the buildup to this event you get the feeling that Rousey is alone in there. And in many ways, as always, it’s herself she’s going to battle in that locked cage. But in other and very corporeal ways, it’s Amanda Nunes, and she’s a locomotive. I think round 1 will be interesting, but the break introduces an adrenaline drop for the challenger, and the champion capitalizes and closes the deal in 2.
Nunes by KO/TKO in Round 2.
Eddie Mercado: I’ve seen Ronda Rousey lose one time, and that is not enough for me to even begin to write her off. Say what you will about the mental aspect; I for one cannot put much stock in whatever content was coming from the woman that has been taking acting classes. As far as the fight, I believe Nunes will be in a world of trouble if she finds herself on her back, and I do not believe she possesses the mobility necessary to keep Rousey at, or outside of, striking range. Once the distance has been closed, I struggle to see Nunes being able to stay vertical and the bantamweight championship game of hot potato will continue. Since, Rousey lost her title, I have picked against whoever was defending the belt, and this time is no exception.
Ronda Rousey by Submission (RNC) at 3:33 of Round 1.
Tim Burke: Never judge a fighter off of one fight. Y’all musta forgot about Ronda. She’s gonna trounce Nunes here.
Ronda Rousey by submission (armbar), round 1
Staff picking Nunes: Victor, Nick, Bissell, Fraser, Ram, Stephie, Phil
Staff picking Rousey: Mookie, Eddie, Lewis, Tim
Amanda Nunes vs. Ronda Rousey
Mookie Alexander: I shouldn’t be picking Rousey here. The uncertain state of her mindset after the Holm loss, in addition to sticking with Tarverdyan, as well as Nunes being a much more powerful striker than Holm, along with the recent footage of her striking trai---you get the point. The signs point to Rousey being a Mike Tyson-esque fighter who was so used to bullying the opposition, then fell apart once bullying everyone was found to be unattainable. Is this going to be what becomes of Rousey? How will she respond to getting hit by Nunes? Do you weigh her loss to Holm more heavily than her utter dominance over virtually everyone else in the women’s bantamweight division over the years? Let’s be real here, Holm and Nunes aren’t the same fighter. Holm’s counterstriking befuddled Ronda. Nunes is certainly more aggressive than Holm but has dodgy cardio, so you have to wonder if she’ll be making a push to finish in round 1. That could backfire on her and she could get overaggressive, tossed to the mat, and Rousey does her thing. Alternatively, Nunes just snipes Rousey and surely ends her fighting career as we know it. Ohhhhh I don’t know what to do.
Alright, I’ll go with what I dreamed on Tuesday night, Ronda Rousey by armbar, round 2. No, I don’t feel very good about it.
Victor Rodriguez: Rousey is still training with Tarverdyan. Do you remember what his tutelage sounds like? I do. What success has anyone under his tutelage really accomplished? Travis Browne went from heavyweight threat to punching bag, Jake Ellenberger almost flamed out of the UFC after a decade in the game before getting the hell out of dodge to join Cordero across town, and Jessamyn Duke went from hot prospect to limbo. Yet Rousey is still training with Tarverdyan. Ronda has succeeded despite her time under Edmond, not because of it. And I want to make this clear - I not only want this fight to be competitive, I actually want Ronda to win in the hopes of shutting up all of the vile, stupid bullshit-spewing troglodytes that cheer for her demise as a sport in and of itself. That said, there’s no way I can put any faith into it. Why? Rousey is still training with Tarverdyan. She’s loyal to the end, and is still sticking with one of the worst coaches in the game. Not only that, but she’s facing a hellacious striker that’s cleaned up a lot of her already terrifying striking game, uses range and has better control of footwork and timing. Plus, Nunes can use a size and weight advantage with her prep work to avoid the takedown to defend and make this her fight. A few key things have to go really wrong for Amanda for Ronda to win this fight, and I just don’t see it happening.
Amanda Nunes by TKO.
Fraser Coffeen: This one basically comes down entirely to Rousey’s mental game, which makes it tough, because no one can really know where her head is at. That said, all signs point to her not being in a good place - the massive time off, the walk away from the staredown, the refusal to do media… it’s all bad signs. I worry that there’s going to be some anti-Rousey revisionism going on in coming years about how she was never that good anyway. Which is nonsense - prime Rousey wins this 9 times out of 10. But this Rousey?
Amanda Nunes, KO, R1
Ram Gilboa: There’s a lot of talk about Rousey’s mentality coming into the Nunes fight. Obviously, her mentality is going to play a very big role here, as this is a fight, in a cage. But, I think there’s something bigger here: Rousey hasn’t fought in well over a year. She spent at least the first two months of that period not training; probably more like three. Techno-physically – that’s a thing – I’m afraid she will find out the MMA world catches up to its luminaries pretty quickly. Rousey’s return talk also completely overshadowed Nunes, the champ, you know, and her own recent accomplishments and advancements. And Nunes is a tough match-up for even a top condition Rousey, who won’t outbox her - not while under Tarverdyan, maybe not ever now – and won’t get any free armbars off the 3 years black belt. (Nunes also holds a brown in Judo, as much as it says something against Rousey’s Bronze, and Silver).
Rousey got figured out once – true, by solid opposition - and fighters of a certain age, style and upbringing, once they get figured out, they rarely get unfigured. Especially against top competition, Ask Fedor, or Chuck. Rousey is younger than they were when their losses started piling up, but WMMA is younger too, and with the benefit of prior wisdom, it is catching up in a quicker pace. I’m afraid – well, to the point that I care and sympathize – that Rousey will find out that head and arm Kubinage throws will pretty much magically altogether stop being effective in 2017 WMMA.
Following the buildup to this event you get the feeling that Rousey is alone in there. And in many ways, as always, it’s herself she’s going to battle in that locked cage. But in other and very corporeal ways, it’s Amanda Nunes, and she’s a locomotive. I think round 1 will be interesting, but the break introduces an adrenaline drop for the challenger, and the champion capitalizes and closes the deal in 2.
Nunes by KO/TKO in Round 2.
Eddie Mercado: I’ve seen Ronda Rousey lose one time, and that is not enough for me to even begin to write her off. Say what you will about the mental aspect; I for one cannot put much stock in whatever content was coming from the woman that has been taking acting classes. As far as the fight, I believe Nunes will be in a world of trouble if she finds herself on her back, and I do not believe she possesses the mobility necessary to keep Rousey at, or outside of, striking range. Once the distance has been closed, I struggle to see Nunes being able to stay vertical and the bantamweight championship game of hot potato will continue. Since, Rousey lost her title, I have picked against whoever was defending the belt, and this time is no exception.
Ronda Rousey by Submission (RNC) at 3:33 of Round 1.
Tim Burke: Never judge a fighter off of one fight. Y’all musta forgot about Ronda. She’s gonna trounce Nunes here.
Ronda Rousey by submission (armbar), round 1
Staff picking Nunes: Victor, Nick, Bissell, Fraser, Ram, Stephie, Phil
Staff picking Rousey: Mookie, Eddie, Lewis, Tim
Dominick Cruz vs. Cody Garbrandt
Mookie Alexander: I figure that Garbrandt has about 7-8 minutes to win this fight before Cruz just takes over. This is me saying that Garbrandt has a puncher’s chance, but not much else. Despite the elusiveness of Cruz, he’s not unbelievably impossible to hit. Garbrandt is the hardest puncher Cruz has faced since … Benavidez? Yeah, we’ll go with that. Cody has the power to put just about anyone away, Cruz included, but as the Heavy Hands team pointed out, he’s a pretty linear fighter. That’s not exactly a feather in your cap when going against someone who moves as well as Cruz. It’ll take a big shot in an exchange or Garbrandt strategizing to work an angle where he can fire off clean shots on Cruz (easier said than done) for the upset to happen. Otherwise, I still see Dillashaw as the guy who most likely can beat Cruz. If the KO doesn’t happen early, Cruz will style on Garbrandt and frustrate him towards an increasingly one-sided decision. Wouldn’t be surprised if Cruz also puts on a wrestling clinic as Garbrandt starts to fade towards rounds 3-5.
Dominick Cruz by unanimous decision.
Fraser Coffeen: I’m really torn here simply because I can’t make up my mind about how good Garbrandt really is. I find that to sometimes be the case with the big KO puncher types where the power is such a game changer that it’s not always easy to evaluate the overall game. Garbrandt is no doubt a very good fighter, but is he a better technical striker than Faber or Dillashaw, both men who fell victim to the Cruz striking conundrum? No, I don’t think he is. But what he does have is the ability to turn the fight with one punch, and Cruz hasn’t dealt with that since Brian Bowles many moons ago. The question then becomes, can Cruz avoid the big strike for 25 minutes straight? If I’m being honest, I don’t think he can. I see Garbrandt landing some big shots here and there to make it a close fight - but if he can’t score the KO, look for the judges to give the slightly controversial nod to Cruz.
Dominick Cruz, UD
Eddie Mercado: For me, this is Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Canelo Alvarez. Cody Garbrandt is young and dangerous and only getting better, where as Dominick Cruz is the long time King Ding but isn’t exactly getting any younger. It’s a wise choice for Cruz to take young Garbrandt now in his somewhat green career versus a bit further down the road when "No Love" acquires a little more seasoning.
Dom Cruz by Submission (Guillotine) at 4:16 of Round 4.
Victor Rodriguez: Garbrandt can finish this fight with one or two punches, but does anyone actually see him landing that shot? That’s been my dilemma here. There doesn’t seem to be any avenue I can see for Cody here. He won’t outwrestle Dominick, he won’t get off his back when taken down and sure as hell won’t submit Cruz. I see Cody getting picked apart from the outside and getting superstyled on for a solid five rounds. All that bad blood gets wasted on an uncompetitive outing. Light a candle for that young man.
Dominick Cruz by TKO, round 4.
Tim Burke: Cruz is going to style on Garbrandt on the feet for a while, then get taken down and finished. This will be one-sided.
Dominick Cruz by submission, round 4
Staff picking Cruz: Bissell, Fraser, Ram, Mookie, Eddie, Victor, Stephie, Phil, Tim
Staff picking Garbrandt: Nick, Lewis
Mookie Alexander: I figure that Garbrandt has about 7-8 minutes to win this fight before Cruz just takes over. This is me saying that Garbrandt has a puncher’s chance, but not much else. Despite the elusiveness of Cruz, he’s not unbelievably impossible to hit. Garbrandt is the hardest puncher Cruz has faced since … Benavidez? Yeah, we’ll go with that. Cody has the power to put just about anyone away, Cruz included, but as the Heavy Hands team pointed out, he’s a pretty linear fighter. That’s not exactly a feather in your cap when going against someone who moves as well as Cruz. It’ll take a big shot in an exchange or Garbrandt strategizing to work an angle where he can fire off clean shots on Cruz (easier said than done) for the upset to happen. Otherwise, I still see Dillashaw as the guy who most likely can beat Cruz. If the KO doesn’t happen early, Cruz will style on Garbrandt and frustrate him towards an increasingly one-sided decision. Wouldn’t be surprised if Cruz also puts on a wrestling clinic as Garbrandt starts to fade towards rounds 3-5.
Dominick Cruz by unanimous decision.
Fraser Coffeen: I’m really torn here simply because I can’t make up my mind about how good Garbrandt really is. I find that to sometimes be the case with the big KO puncher types where the power is such a game changer that it’s not always easy to evaluate the overall game. Garbrandt is no doubt a very good fighter, but is he a better technical striker than Faber or Dillashaw, both men who fell victim to the Cruz striking conundrum? No, I don’t think he is. But what he does have is the ability to turn the fight with one punch, and Cruz hasn’t dealt with that since Brian Bowles many moons ago. The question then becomes, can Cruz avoid the big strike for 25 minutes straight? If I’m being honest, I don’t think he can. I see Garbrandt landing some big shots here and there to make it a close fight - but if he can’t score the KO, look for the judges to give the slightly controversial nod to Cruz.
Dominick Cruz, UD
Eddie Mercado: For me, this is Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Canelo Alvarez. Cody Garbrandt is young and dangerous and only getting better, where as Dominick Cruz is the long time King Ding but isn’t exactly getting any younger. It’s a wise choice for Cruz to take young Garbrandt now in his somewhat green career versus a bit further down the road when "No Love" acquires a little more seasoning.
Dom Cruz by Submission (Guillotine) at 4:16 of Round 4.
Victor Rodriguez: Garbrandt can finish this fight with one or two punches, but does anyone actually see him landing that shot? That’s been my dilemma here. There doesn’t seem to be any avenue I can see for Cody here. He won’t outwrestle Dominick, he won’t get off his back when taken down and sure as hell won’t submit Cruz. I see Cody getting picked apart from the outside and getting superstyled on for a solid five rounds. All that bad blood gets wasted on an uncompetitive outing. Light a candle for that young man.
Dominick Cruz by TKO, round 4.
Tim Burke: Cruz is going to style on Garbrandt on the feet for a while, then get taken down and finished. This will be one-sided.
Dominick Cruz by submission, round 4
Staff picking Cruz: Bissell, Fraser, Ram, Mookie, Eddie, Victor, Stephie, Phil, Tim
Staff picking Garbrandt: Nick, Lewis
TJ Dillashaw vs. John Linekar
Mookie Alexander: I shouldn’t be betraying the great John Lineker like this, but short of one of his rib roasters or haymakers crushing Dillashaw straight away, this is TJ’s fight to lose. Better footwork, superior command of angles, more technical striker, he’s basically at a level of striking that I think will lead to a frustrated Lineker getting dominated. I hope I’m wrong, because I don’t want the Lineker fun to end.
TJ Dillashaw by unanimous decision.
Eddie Mercado: TJ Dillashaw throws a boatload of volume and when you throw that often, you’re going to get hit. That might go over well with some bantamweights, but not John Lineker.
John Lineker by KO at 2:02 of Round 1.
Victor Rodriguez: Dude, Lineker shouldn’t have eaten his way out of flyweight. He’s about to face an inability to deal with Dillashaw’s timing, pace and cardio. That’s not even saying anything about his movement both attacking and evading. He’ll be a day late and a dollar short in most of these exchanges and whiff relentlessly. Dilly takes over late with takedowns and ground control. I’d wager on TJ getting the finish if this were a five-rounder, but this is what we’ve got.
TJ Dillashaw by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Dillashaw's worst enemy in this fight will be his natural brawling tendencies. If he feels like he needs to bang it out with Lineker, he'll find himself in trouble in short order. However, I think that his ability to draw responses with movement and feints and counter counters makes him a rough matchup for Lineker, and if Dillashaw can keep this fight from moving into the outer moat of the cage, he should take it handily. The wrestling in the back pocket is a bonus.
TJ Dillashaw by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Dillashaw: Nick, Bissell, Fraser, Ram, Mookie, Lewis, Victor, Stephie, Phil, Tim
Staff picking Lineker: Eddie
Mookie Alexander: I shouldn’t be betraying the great John Lineker like this, but short of one of his rib roasters or haymakers crushing Dillashaw straight away, this is TJ’s fight to lose. Better footwork, superior command of angles, more technical striker, he’s basically at a level of striking that I think will lead to a frustrated Lineker getting dominated. I hope I’m wrong, because I don’t want the Lineker fun to end.
TJ Dillashaw by unanimous decision.
Eddie Mercado: TJ Dillashaw throws a boatload of volume and when you throw that often, you’re going to get hit. That might go over well with some bantamweights, but not John Lineker.
John Lineker by KO at 2:02 of Round 1.
Victor Rodriguez: Dude, Lineker shouldn’t have eaten his way out of flyweight. He’s about to face an inability to deal with Dillashaw’s timing, pace and cardio. That’s not even saying anything about his movement both attacking and evading. He’ll be a day late and a dollar short in most of these exchanges and whiff relentlessly. Dilly takes over late with takedowns and ground control. I’d wager on TJ getting the finish if this were a five-rounder, but this is what we’ve got.
TJ Dillashaw by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Dillashaw's worst enemy in this fight will be his natural brawling tendencies. If he feels like he needs to bang it out with Lineker, he'll find himself in trouble in short order. However, I think that his ability to draw responses with movement and feints and counter counters makes him a rough matchup for Lineker, and if Dillashaw can keep this fight from moving into the outer moat of the cage, he should take it handily. The wrestling in the back pocket is a bonus.
TJ Dillashaw by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Dillashaw: Nick, Bissell, Fraser, Ram, Mookie, Lewis, Victor, Stephie, Phil, Tim
Staff picking Lineker: Eddie
Dong Hyun Kim vs. Tarec Saffiedine
Mookie Alexander: I’m pretty much over Saffiedine. He’s a functionally good fighter who is just not powerful enough (or just plain not powerful at all) to overwhelm opponents. His takedown defense is pretty sturdy but I think Stun Gun can return to "Old Stun Gun" and grind this one out. In other words, fewer random spinning techniques, more judo-throwy stuff.
Dong Hyun Kim by unanimous decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Love Tarec to death, but this matchup isn’t very good for him. Kim’s massive and a great grappler that found some success being reckless but has since reverted to his grappling-heavy style. It is what it is. Kim controls this fight and rides it to a decision.
Dong Hyun Kim by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Kim isn't good at closing distance, which is where Tarec wants to keep it. However, I just can't trust Saffiedine- his power (which was never great aside from his leg kicks) appears to be visibly waning, as is his durability and physical strength. I think the injuries have taken too much of a toll, and he won't be able to stop Kim from closing him down and bullying him.
Dong Hyun Kim by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Kim: Nick, Bissell, Fraser, Mookie, Victor, Eddie, Stephie, Phil, Tim
Staff picking Saffiedine: Ram, Lewis
Mookie Alexander: I’m pretty much over Saffiedine. He’s a functionally good fighter who is just not powerful enough (or just plain not powerful at all) to overwhelm opponents. His takedown defense is pretty sturdy but I think Stun Gun can return to "Old Stun Gun" and grind this one out. In other words, fewer random spinning techniques, more judo-throwy stuff.
Dong Hyun Kim by unanimous decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Love Tarec to death, but this matchup isn’t very good for him. Kim’s massive and a great grappler that found some success being reckless but has since reverted to his grappling-heavy style. It is what it is. Kim controls this fight and rides it to a decision.
Dong Hyun Kim by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Kim isn't good at closing distance, which is where Tarec wants to keep it. However, I just can't trust Saffiedine- his power (which was never great aside from his leg kicks) appears to be visibly waning, as is his durability and physical strength. I think the injuries have taken too much of a toll, and he won't be able to stop Kim from closing him down and bullying him.
Dong Hyun Kim by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Kim: Nick, Bissell, Fraser, Mookie, Victor, Eddie, Stephie, Phil, Tim
Staff picking Saffiedine: Ram, Lewis
Ray Borg vs. Louis Smolka
Mookie Alexander: Borg looked totally out of his depth as a striker against Justin Scoggins, so ideally working with Brandon Gibson can coach him up, because his game to his date has been heavily dependent on transitions and winning scrambles. Smolka will have a considerable size advantage with him, he can grapple with Borg, and he does way more damage than Borg does when in dominant positions. I know Smolka just had a humbling defeat two months ago, but he’s a more complete fighter than Borg, and I think he dominates here.
Louis Smolka by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Smolka is interesting. Not a great offensive wrestler and debatably a downright bad defensive one. Despite being physically diametrically opposed to the Hawaiian, Borg has similar key competencies - mediocre striking, but fantastic grappling. I slightly like Borg here- I think he's the better offensive wrestler and hence has the better ability to dictate scrambles, but this is a hard fight to pick, and likely an extremely entertaining one.
Ray Borg by unanimous decision.
Tim Burke: Smolka will be assimilated. Resistance is futile.
Ray Borg by submission, round 2
Staff picking Borg: Phil, Tim
Staff picking Smolka: Nick, Fraser, Mookie, Lewis, Bissell, Stephie
Mookie Alexander: Borg looked totally out of his depth as a striker against Justin Scoggins, so ideally working with Brandon Gibson can coach him up, because his game to his date has been heavily dependent on transitions and winning scrambles. Smolka will have a considerable size advantage with him, he can grapple with Borg, and he does way more damage than Borg does when in dominant positions. I know Smolka just had a humbling defeat two months ago, but he’s a more complete fighter than Borg, and I think he dominates here.
Louis Smolka by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Smolka is interesting. Not a great offensive wrestler and debatably a downright bad defensive one. Despite being physically diametrically opposed to the Hawaiian, Borg has similar key competencies - mediocre striking, but fantastic grappling. I slightly like Borg here- I think he's the better offensive wrestler and hence has the better ability to dictate scrambles, but this is a hard fight to pick, and likely an extremely entertaining one.
Ray Borg by unanimous decision.
Tim Burke: Smolka will be assimilated. Resistance is futile.
Ray Borg by submission, round 2
Staff picking Borg: Phil, Tim
Staff picking Smolka: Nick, Fraser, Mookie, Lewis, Bissell, Stephie
Johny Hendricks vs. Neil Magny
Mookie Alexander: I just can’t bring myself to pick Hendricks. He’s hinted he might retire even with a win, he’s not looked good in these last two fights, and it’s been ages since he won by KO. Magny’s unsustainable run of "almost get KO’d but still win" finally ended vs. Lorenz Larkin, but he’s still a very good fighter. He’s an underrated wrestler and his cardio will serve him well as he outstrikes Hendricks in the later rounds for the win. UPDATE: And Hendricks badly missed weight so yeah, nothing changes!
Neil Magny by unanimous decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Oof. Let’s see.. We’ve got Hendricks being a reliably strong wrestler that hasn’t really been able to recapture that spark that led to his earlier success and championship fights against Georges St Pierre and Robbie Lawler. He’s been inconsistent for an entire cornucopia of reasons, whether it was the hand wraps, fighting at 70%, weight troubles, etc. On the other hand, Magny’s come along as a good but not spectacular fighter from TUF to a fighter that’s evolved beautifully and shown true potential in his UFC run and appeared to not have been affected very much by his crushing loss to Demian Maia. Magny’s ability to take a hit as well as his superb cardio served him well against Hector Lombard, and could be part of the formula to win here. He can survive the takedown attempts and keep the upper hand no matter how ugly Hendricks makes this fight, working to establish his clinch and chip away at him. Once Johny’s cardio begins to falter later in the fight, Magny turns up the heat and outworks the former champion.
Neil Magny by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Sad to see Hendricks come to this. Wasn't long ago that he was an elite fighter and gave us some of the best fights we've ever seen (Lawler, Condit, GSP). I picked against him before he missed weight, will do it with more confidence now. In part it's because his ability to finish fights seems to have disappeared in recent years. Given how he struggled with Wonderboy's length, and the pace that Magny can keep (if he doesn't get knocked out in the first round), it seems like Magny can just keep Hendricks on the end of his jab and then wear him down in the clinch.
Neil Magny by unanimous decision.
Tim Burke: MOOOOOOOOOOOOO. Still, you’re all picking against him? It’s still Neil Magny he’s fighting, not Stephen Thompson.
Johny Hendricks by decision.
Staff picking Hendricks: Tim
Staff picking Magny: Victor, Nick, Bissell, Fraser, Ram, Mookie, Lewis, Eddie, Stephie, Phil
Mookie Alexander: I just can’t bring myself to pick Hendricks. He’s hinted he might retire even with a win, he’s not looked good in these last two fights, and it’s been ages since he won by KO. Magny’s unsustainable run of "almost get KO’d but still win" finally ended vs. Lorenz Larkin, but he’s still a very good fighter. He’s an underrated wrestler and his cardio will serve him well as he outstrikes Hendricks in the later rounds for the win. UPDATE: And Hendricks badly missed weight so yeah, nothing changes!
Neil Magny by unanimous decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Oof. Let’s see.. We’ve got Hendricks being a reliably strong wrestler that hasn’t really been able to recapture that spark that led to his earlier success and championship fights against Georges St Pierre and Robbie Lawler. He’s been inconsistent for an entire cornucopia of reasons, whether it was the hand wraps, fighting at 70%, weight troubles, etc. On the other hand, Magny’s come along as a good but not spectacular fighter from TUF to a fighter that’s evolved beautifully and shown true potential in his UFC run and appeared to not have been affected very much by his crushing loss to Demian Maia. Magny’s ability to take a hit as well as his superb cardio served him well against Hector Lombard, and could be part of the formula to win here. He can survive the takedown attempts and keep the upper hand no matter how ugly Hendricks makes this fight, working to establish his clinch and chip away at him. Once Johny’s cardio begins to falter later in the fight, Magny turns up the heat and outworks the former champion.
Neil Magny by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Sad to see Hendricks come to this. Wasn't long ago that he was an elite fighter and gave us some of the best fights we've ever seen (Lawler, Condit, GSP). I picked against him before he missed weight, will do it with more confidence now. In part it's because his ability to finish fights seems to have disappeared in recent years. Given how he struggled with Wonderboy's length, and the pace that Magny can keep (if he doesn't get knocked out in the first round), it seems like Magny can just keep Hendricks on the end of his jab and then wear him down in the clinch.
Neil Magny by unanimous decision.
Tim Burke: MOOOOOOOOOOOOO. Still, you’re all picking against him? It’s still Neil Magny he’s fighting, not Stephen Thompson.
Johny Hendricks by decision.
Staff picking Hendricks: Tim
Staff picking Magny: Victor, Nick, Bissell, Fraser, Ram, Mookie, Lewis, Eddie, Stephie, Phil
Alex Garcia vs. Mike Pyle
Mookie Alexander: Pyle is extremely shopworn. Garcia’s bordering on being a busted prospect but I just don’t trust Pyle’s chin to hold up to Garcia’s power.
Alex Garcia by KO, round 1.
Victor Rodriguez: Look, us Dominicans don’t have much to hang our hats on outside of baseball and the one Olympic track runner we had that only claimed DR because he didn’t make the U.S. team. Gunning for Alex to season a mulletless Pyle with oregano. Viva Duarte.
Alex Garcia by Zangief Ultimate Atomic Buster.
Phil Mackenzie: Garcia looked sort of like he'd... forgotten how to fight the last time out? Pretty much his entire game fell apart against Sean Strickland. On the other hand, we have Mike Pyle, who is hundreds of years old and gets wasted in the first round with alarming regularity. I can really, really see the Pyle pick here- Garcia's offensive abilities have bizarrely waned in the UFC, leaving him as largely a control wrestler, and Pyle is a swiss army knife of MMA offense if he survives round 1. That said, I can't pick him to beat a well-trained, young, strong athlete at this point.
Alex Garcia by TKO, round 1.
Staff picking Garcia: Bissell, Ram, Mookie, Victor (duh), Stephie, Phil, Tim
Staff picking Pyle: Nick, Fraser, Lewis, Eddie
Mookie Alexander: Pyle is extremely shopworn. Garcia’s bordering on being a busted prospect but I just don’t trust Pyle’s chin to hold up to Garcia’s power.
Alex Garcia by KO, round 1.
Victor Rodriguez: Look, us Dominicans don’t have much to hang our hats on outside of baseball and the one Olympic track runner we had that only claimed DR because he didn’t make the U.S. team. Gunning for Alex to season a mulletless Pyle with oregano. Viva Duarte.
Alex Garcia by Zangief Ultimate Atomic Buster.
Phil Mackenzie: Garcia looked sort of like he'd... forgotten how to fight the last time out? Pretty much his entire game fell apart against Sean Strickland. On the other hand, we have Mike Pyle, who is hundreds of years old and gets wasted in the first round with alarming regularity. I can really, really see the Pyle pick here- Garcia's offensive abilities have bizarrely waned in the UFC, leaving him as largely a control wrestler, and Pyle is a swiss army knife of MMA offense if he survives round 1. That said, I can't pick him to beat a well-trained, young, strong athlete at this point.
Alex Garcia by TKO, round 1.
Staff picking Garcia: Bissell, Ram, Mookie, Victor (duh), Stephie, Phil, Tim
Staff picking Pyle: Nick, Fraser, Lewis, Eddie
Antonio Carlos Junior vs. Marvin Vettori
Phil Mackenzie: Vettori is basically a less experienced version of what Carlos Junior brings to the table, and appears outmatched in the obvious areas. He's a wooden outside striker, and Carlos Junior is improving there. Vettori's a good grappler, but Shoeface is more decorated and appears to be a far more effective wrestler.
Antonio Carlos Junior by unanimous decision.
Staff picking ACJ: Bissell, Fraser, Mookie, Eddie, Stephie, Phil, Tim
Staff picking Vettori: Nick
Phil Mackenzie: Vettori is basically a less experienced version of what Carlos Junior brings to the table, and appears outmatched in the obvious areas. He's a wooden outside striker, and Carlos Junior is improving there. Vettori's a good grappler, but Shoeface is more decorated and appears to be a far more effective wrestler.
Antonio Carlos Junior by unanimous decision.
Staff picking ACJ: Bissell, Fraser, Mookie, Eddie, Stephie, Phil, Tim
Staff picking Vettori: Nick
Niko Price vs. Brandon Thatch
Mookie Alexander: I reckon we’ll get a knockout in the 1st round since both guys are pretty aggressive out of the gate, but man, Thatch has to be one of the bigger busted prospects the UFC has ever signed.
Brandon Thatch by KO, round 1? I guess?
Phil Mackenzie: Thatch's last fight was an absolute meltdown. He just stopped throwing sometime in the second and resigned himself to losing a top control decision to Siyar(!) Bahadurzada(!). He technically outclasses Niko Price... but I have a bad feeling. Price is absolutely psychotically aggressive
and fearless: that might translate to forcing Thatch to counter him and finish him early, but it also might just make Thatch wilt. I'll take Thatch just because it'd be so sad to see him Papy Abedi his way out of the UFC like this.
Brandon Thatch by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Price: Bissell, Lewis
Staff picking Thatch: Nick, Fraser, Mookie, Eddie, Stephie, Phil, Tim
Mookie Alexander: I reckon we’ll get a knockout in the 1st round since both guys are pretty aggressive out of the gate, but man, Thatch has to be one of the bigger busted prospects the UFC has ever signed.
Brandon Thatch by KO, round 1? I guess?
Phil Mackenzie: Thatch's last fight was an absolute meltdown. He just stopped throwing sometime in the second and resigned himself to losing a top control decision to Siyar(!) Bahadurzada(!). He technically outclasses Niko Price... but I have a bad feeling. Price is absolutely psychotically aggressive
and fearless: that might translate to forcing Thatch to counter him and finish him early, but it also might just make Thatch wilt. I'll take Thatch just because it'd be so sad to see him Papy Abedi his way out of the UFC like this.
Brandon Thatch by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Price: Bissell, Lewis
Staff picking Thatch: Nick, Fraser, Mookie, Eddie, Stephie, Phil, Tim
Tim Means vs. Alex Oliveira
Victor Rodriguez: Alex doesn’t have the composure Tim has, nor is he as well-rounded. His kicks will be an asset, but Tim’s boxing is more accurate and he’s more dangerous off his back and in top control.
Tim Means by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Much like Oliveira-Brooks, this is somewhat a contest of physicality vs technique. In that fight I underestimated quite how much physicality Oliveira brings to the table. I'm... maybe going to do it again? Oliveira doesn't seem to be technically improving as much as he appears to be just learning to insulate himself a bit better in order to leverage his freakish physical gifts. If he drags Means around, I won't be surprised, but coming with sloppy power has historically been a bad idea against Means (Sullivan fight etc).
Tim Means by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Means: Nick, Bissell, Fraser, Lewis, Eddie, Victor, Phil, Tim
Staff picking Oliveira: Mookie, Stephie
Victor Rodriguez: Alex doesn’t have the composure Tim has, nor is he as well-rounded. His kicks will be an asset, but Tim’s boxing is more accurate and he’s more dangerous off his back and in top control.
Tim Means by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Much like Oliveira-Brooks, this is somewhat a contest of physicality vs technique. In that fight I underestimated quite how much physicality Oliveira brings to the table. I'm... maybe going to do it again? Oliveira doesn't seem to be technically improving as much as he appears to be just learning to insulate himself a bit better in order to leverage his freakish physical gifts. If he drags Means around, I won't be surprised, but coming with sloppy power has historically been a bad idea against Means (Sullivan fight etc).
Tim Means by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Means: Nick, Bissell, Fraser, Lewis, Eddie, Victor, Phil, Tim
Staff picking Oliveira: Mookie, Stephie
