John Bollman
N.Y. METS @ MIAMI | 08/03 | 7:10 PM EDT
MIAMI +170
ANALYSIS: Nick Neidert has actually pitched very well in the few starts that he has made this season. And the Marlins bats were alive and well last night. Taijuan Walker has been worse on the road and the Mets are actually 22-30 on the road this season while the Marlins are 25-26 at home. Walker has allowed at least five runs in each of his last three starts, take the Marlins at home.
KANSAS CITY @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 08/03 | 8:10 PM EDT
KANSAS CITY +220
ANALYSIS: Going contrarian to all my colleagues but this is more of a value pick than anything. The White Sox are obviously a better team but they have lost six of their last 10 games and Kris Bubic has been pitching very well with three straight quality starts. These starters faced the opposing team last start and both threw quality starts so I think this game will be closer than we think. The home/road splits are a reason for concern for both these starters but currently the Royals are expected to win this game 30% of the time according to the implied odds, and I think its more like 40% giving us good value.
BOSTON @ DETROIT | 08/03 | 7:10 PM EDT
DETROIT +130
ANALYSIS: The Red Sox haven’t been playing particularly well lately and while I do think they can snap out of in Detroit, I like the value in the Tigers here. They are one of the most profitable teams in the league and there is a lot of value in a home dog. Garrett Richards has been the Red Sox worst pitcher while Willy Peralta has struggled his past couple starts but he has been solid overall for the Tigers. Take the value in the Tigers at home.
ATLANTA @ ST. LOUIS | 08/03 | 8:15 PM EDT
ATLANTA -125
ANALYSIS: This is a matchup of southpaws in Max Fried vs. Jon Lester who is making his team debut. Lester has struggled all season and the Braves have been hitting lefties well recently. Max Fried allowed two hits in seven innings against the Cardinals earlier this season and he has two quality starts in his last three games. The Braves are on a ridiculous streak right now where they lose every game they play when trying to get back to .500. Currently they are 52-54, usually I don’t read into something like that but it definitely can’t hurt.