Matt Severance
FEATURED PICK
CHI. CUBS @ COLORADO | 08/03 | 8:40 PM EDT
COLORADO -145
ANALYSIS: Post-trade deadline, the Cubs might have the worst everyday lineup and bullpen in the National League -- and I say this as a fan. Complete white flag, and I don't mean the one with the W. I'll be fading them a lot the rest of the way. The Rox remain an excellent home team and Kyle Freeland has a 1.98 ERA over his last seven starts since June 22, the third-lowest ERA in the Majors over that span. The Cubbies are 1-8 in their last nine road games vs. a left-handed starter.
PITTSBURGH @ MILWAUKEE | 08/03 | 8:10 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -216
ANALYSIS: Big price, but the Pirates are sitting their best remaining hitter (post-Adam Frazier trade) in Bryan Reynolds as well as very good starting catcher Jacob Stallings. Both are excellent defensively, while Reynolds' 44 extra-base hits are tied for third among all National League outfielders. His 18 homers and 58 RBIs lead the team. That lineup likely won't do much against Adrian Houser, who has a 2.05 ERA in his past five starts and 2.49 in four outings this year vs. Pittsburgh. The Bucs start struggling rookie Max Kranick (7.31 ERA), who was roughed up at home last week by these Brewers.
SEATTLE @ TAMPA BAY | 08/03 | 7:10 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -157
ANALYSIS: The Rays were one of the big home favorites who were surprised Monday night, but they don't lose back-to-back at home often. Even with Monday's loss, the Rays are 27-9 at home since May 13, best in the majors over that stretch. They face Mariners All-Star lefty Yusei Kikuchi, who might be hitting a wall with a 7.71 ERA in his past four starts. Tampa's Luis Patino has pitched just 14.2 innings at home this year but has a 0.61 ERA. Seattle is 5-0 vs. Tampa Bay, which should be plenty of motivation for Rays manager Kevin Cash to give his guys. Nelson Cruz is 4-for-5 career off Kikuchi with two homers.
MINNESOTA @ CINCINNATI | 08/03 | 7:10 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -125
ANALYSIS: The Twins have been stripped down by trades and injury and lose the designated hitter in Cincinnati. Minnesota has just five wins since the All-Star break, while the Reds suddenly have wild-card life with the Padres possibly losing Fernando Tatis Jr. for the season. Cincinnati has won five of six and that one loss was in extra innings. Tyler Mahle has an ugly 6.07 home ERA but has generally been better there of late. The Twins' Kenta Maeda has a 5.50 road ERA -- 11 of the 13 home runs and 21 of the 31 extra-base hits he's allowed this season have come on the road. Minnesota has won just four of its past 16 away.
FEATURED PICK
CHI. CUBS @ COLORADO | 08/03 | 8:40 PM EDT
COLORADO -145
ANALYSIS: Post-trade deadline, the Cubs might have the worst everyday lineup and bullpen in the National League -- and I say this as a fan. Complete white flag, and I don't mean the one with the W. I'll be fading them a lot the rest of the way. The Rox remain an excellent home team and Kyle Freeland has a 1.98 ERA over his last seven starts since June 22, the third-lowest ERA in the Majors over that span. The Cubbies are 1-8 in their last nine road games vs. a left-handed starter.
PITTSBURGH @ MILWAUKEE | 08/03 | 8:10 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -216
ANALYSIS: Big price, but the Pirates are sitting their best remaining hitter (post-Adam Frazier trade) in Bryan Reynolds as well as very good starting catcher Jacob Stallings. Both are excellent defensively, while Reynolds' 44 extra-base hits are tied for third among all National League outfielders. His 18 homers and 58 RBIs lead the team. That lineup likely won't do much against Adrian Houser, who has a 2.05 ERA in his past five starts and 2.49 in four outings this year vs. Pittsburgh. The Bucs start struggling rookie Max Kranick (7.31 ERA), who was roughed up at home last week by these Brewers.
SEATTLE @ TAMPA BAY | 08/03 | 7:10 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -157
ANALYSIS: The Rays were one of the big home favorites who were surprised Monday night, but they don't lose back-to-back at home often. Even with Monday's loss, the Rays are 27-9 at home since May 13, best in the majors over that stretch. They face Mariners All-Star lefty Yusei Kikuchi, who might be hitting a wall with a 7.71 ERA in his past four starts. Tampa's Luis Patino has pitched just 14.2 innings at home this year but has a 0.61 ERA. Seattle is 5-0 vs. Tampa Bay, which should be plenty of motivation for Rays manager Kevin Cash to give his guys. Nelson Cruz is 4-for-5 career off Kikuchi with two homers.
MINNESOTA @ CINCINNATI | 08/03 | 7:10 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -125
ANALYSIS: The Twins have been stripped down by trades and injury and lose the designated hitter in Cincinnati. Minnesota has just five wins since the All-Star break, while the Reds suddenly have wild-card life with the Padres possibly losing Fernando Tatis Jr. for the season. Cincinnati has won five of six and that one loss was in extra innings. Tyler Mahle has an ugly 6.07 home ERA but has generally been better there of late. The Twins' Kenta Maeda has a 5.50 road ERA -- 11 of the 13 home runs and 21 of the 31 extra-base hits he's allowed this season have come on the road. Minnesota has won just four of its past 16 away.
Matt Severance
ATLANTA @ ST. LOUIS | 08/03 | 8:15 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS +1.5
ANALYSIS: Atlanta has alternated wins and losses every game since the break, the longest such streak in MLB history. The Braves did lose their most recent game Sunday for what that's worth. They start Max Fried, who is 2-4 with a 5.85 ERA on the road. It's the Cards debut of Jon Lester, and he was solid in two starts vs. the Braves this year while with Washington. St. Louis has won 15 of its past 21 at home since June 9, the best home win percentage in the majors over that span. St. Louis’ .667 win pct. (10-5) on Tuesdays this season is tops in the NL. Not predicting an outright win here, but I'll take the runline at -140.
ATLANTA @ ST. LOUIS | 08/03 | 8:15 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS +1.5
ANALYSIS: Atlanta has alternated wins and losses every game since the break, the longest such streak in MLB history. The Braves did lose their most recent game Sunday for what that's worth. They start Max Fried, who is 2-4 with a 5.85 ERA on the road. It's the Cards debut of Jon Lester, and he was solid in two starts vs. the Braves this year while with Washington. St. Louis has won 15 of its past 21 at home since June 9, the best home win percentage in the majors over that span. St. Louis’ .667 win pct. (10-5) on Tuesdays this season is tops in the NL. Not predicting an outright win here, but I'll take the runline at -140.
Micah Roberts
FEATURED PICK
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA | 08/03 | 9:40 PM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO -177
ANALYSIS: This is the old-timers special trend with one team (Giants) winning three straight and another (D-backs) losing three straight. Bet it the fourth time to happen again. We don't really need a system for that obvious wisdom. It’s Arizona. But Johnny Cueto was dominant in his last start against the Dodgers allowing no runs in a 5-0 win. Giants to win.
MINNESOTA @ CINCINNATI | 08/03 | 7:10 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -121
ANALYSIS: The Twins have lost four of their last five games and now give the ball to RHP Kenta Maeda, who has been outstanding in his last five starts - even though the team has lost the last three. Minnesota looks lifeless at times and now is 18 games below .500. The Reds (56-50) are fighting hard to make the playoffs and are only four games behind in the race for the final NL wild-card spot. Cincinnati has won 14 of RHP Tyler Mahle’s 21 starts, including the last two. Take the Reds to win.
FEATURED PICK
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA | 08/03 | 9:40 PM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO -177
ANALYSIS: This is the old-timers special trend with one team (Giants) winning three straight and another (D-backs) losing three straight. Bet it the fourth time to happen again. We don't really need a system for that obvious wisdom. It’s Arizona. But Johnny Cueto was dominant in his last start against the Dodgers allowing no runs in a 5-0 win. Giants to win.
MINNESOTA @ CINCINNATI | 08/03 | 7:10 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -121
ANALYSIS: The Twins have lost four of their last five games and now give the ball to RHP Kenta Maeda, who has been outstanding in his last five starts - even though the team has lost the last three. Minnesota looks lifeless at times and now is 18 games below .500. The Reds (56-50) are fighting hard to make the playoffs and are only four games behind in the race for the final NL wild-card spot. Cincinnati has won 14 of RHP Tyler Mahle’s 21 starts, including the last two. Take the Reds to win.
Jeff Hochman
MINNESOTA @ CINCINNATI | 08/03 | 7:10 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -125
ANALYSIS: Kenta Maeda's ERA is 5.50 on the road, and August has always been a tough month for the former Dodger. Meanwhile Tyler Mahle has struggled at home but has pitched well against the Twins. The Reds are 14-7 when he's on the bump, while the Twins are 5-12 with Maeda on the hill. Cincinnati is 11-3 when playing after a day off this season. This line opened at -140, which I thought was high. I like the Reds at this number for three units.
MINNESOTA @ CINCINNATI | 08/03 | 7:10 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -125
ANALYSIS: Kenta Maeda's ERA is 5.50 on the road, and August has always been a tough month for the former Dodger. Meanwhile Tyler Mahle has struggled at home but has pitched well against the Twins. The Reds are 14-7 when he's on the bump, while the Twins are 5-12 with Maeda on the hill. Cincinnati is 11-3 when playing after a day off this season. This line opened at -140, which I thought was high. I like the Reds at this number for three units.
Justin Perri
HOUSTON @ L.A. DODGERS | 08/03 | 10:10 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -172
ANALYSIS: The Astros are beginning a big series, one that has "World Series preview" written all over it. I like Dodgers RHP Walker Buehler to succeed against a Houston team that has been less effective against right-handers. Buehler is coming off his best month of the year, as he posted a 1.67 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in July. He just faced San Francisco twice and held them to just one run in 14 1/3 inning. The man is a machine and I'll happily back him. Astros RHP Lance McCullers Jr. has struggled of late, allowing Cleveland and Seattle each to score four runs. He now has a tougher test in Los Angeles and again could allow multiple runs. Take the Dodgers to win.
KANSAS CITY @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 08/03 | 8:10 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX -245
ANALYSIS: This is a story of home/away splits. Royals LHP Kris Bubic has allowed 19 earned runs in his last 15 2/3 innings on the road spanning five appearances. That’s pretty awful. Now he faces a fearsome Chicago lineup and RHP Dylan Cease, who also is much worse on the road, but that’s great for us because his 2.44 ERA and 3.42 K/BB ratio at home should be reliable enough to get us this win. I know it’s heavy, but it’s still the right call. Cease never has surrendered more than three runs at home, so lay the juice.
CLEVELAND @ TORONTO | 08/03 | 7:07 PM EDT
TORONTO -203
ANALYSIS: It’s August and you cannot be afraid of these huge lines, even if the Blue Jays blew it on Monday. Indians RHP Zach Plesac is below average in most peripheral stats, including Barrel percentage, xSLG and strikeout percentage, which means he very well could struggle here. Meanwhile, Toronto LHP Hyun Jin Ryu has allowed just four runs in his last 22 1/3 innings. The Blue Jays are not going to drop back-to-back home games to the Indians. I’m paying up to back Toronto.
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON | 08/03 | 7:05 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA -160
ANALYSIS: Won with the Phillies on Monday, and I see no reason they should drop this game with ace Zack Wheeler taking the mound against Arizona LHP Patrick Corbin. Wheeler has been consistent all year and now faces a pretty rough Nationals lineup. Corbin's ERA is above 8 since the All-Star break and he is likely to struggle. We also got a glimpse at how Washington's bullpen is going to look for the rest of the season and, well, it’s not pretty. I’ll take the juice, lay it with Philadelphia.
HOUSTON @ L.A. DODGERS | 08/03 | 10:10 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -172
ANALYSIS: The Astros are beginning a big series, one that has "World Series preview" written all over it. I like Dodgers RHP Walker Buehler to succeed against a Houston team that has been less effective against right-handers. Buehler is coming off his best month of the year, as he posted a 1.67 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in July. He just faced San Francisco twice and held them to just one run in 14 1/3 inning. The man is a machine and I'll happily back him. Astros RHP Lance McCullers Jr. has struggled of late, allowing Cleveland and Seattle each to score four runs. He now has a tougher test in Los Angeles and again could allow multiple runs. Take the Dodgers to win.
KANSAS CITY @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 08/03 | 8:10 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX -245
ANALYSIS: This is a story of home/away splits. Royals LHP Kris Bubic has allowed 19 earned runs in his last 15 2/3 innings on the road spanning five appearances. That’s pretty awful. Now he faces a fearsome Chicago lineup and RHP Dylan Cease, who also is much worse on the road, but that’s great for us because his 2.44 ERA and 3.42 K/BB ratio at home should be reliable enough to get us this win. I know it’s heavy, but it’s still the right call. Cease never has surrendered more than three runs at home, so lay the juice.
CLEVELAND @ TORONTO | 08/03 | 7:07 PM EDT
TORONTO -203
ANALYSIS: It’s August and you cannot be afraid of these huge lines, even if the Blue Jays blew it on Monday. Indians RHP Zach Plesac is below average in most peripheral stats, including Barrel percentage, xSLG and strikeout percentage, which means he very well could struggle here. Meanwhile, Toronto LHP Hyun Jin Ryu has allowed just four runs in his last 22 1/3 innings. The Blue Jays are not going to drop back-to-back home games to the Indians. I’m paying up to back Toronto.
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON | 08/03 | 7:05 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA -160
ANALYSIS: Won with the Phillies on Monday, and I see no reason they should drop this game with ace Zack Wheeler taking the mound against Arizona LHP Patrick Corbin. Wheeler has been consistent all year and now faces a pretty rough Nationals lineup. Corbin's ERA is above 8 since the All-Star break and he is likely to struggle. We also got a glimpse at how Washington's bullpen is going to look for the rest of the season and, well, it’s not pretty. I’ll take the juice, lay it with Philadelphia.
Stephen Oh
HOUSTON @ L.A. DODGERS | 08/03 | 10:10 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -153
ANALYSIS: My model says the Dodgers win in almost 70 percent of the simulations, so you're getting excellent value with them at this number. Los Angeles RHP Walker Buehler has lost just one of his 21 starts this season and has been superb over his last four outings. The 27-year-old has gone 3-0 while allowing three runs while recording 32 strikeouts over 27 1/3 innings in that span. Houston RHP Lance McCullers Jr. has yielded four runs in each of his last two turns. Take the Dodgers.
ATLANTA @ ST. LOUIS | 08/03 | 8:15 PM EDT
ATLANTA -125
ANALYSIS: My model says the Braves win in almost 70 percent of the simulations, so you're getting excellent value with them at this number. Atlanta LHP Max Fried pitched well enough to notch his third win in four starts last time out, allowing just two runs in seven innings while registering a season-high nine strikeouts. He is 2-0 with a 0.61 ERA in three career meetings with St. Louis, including a victory on June 18 in which he gave up one run and two hits in seven frames. Expect him to continue his success against the Cardinals.
ladelphia.
HOUSTON @ L.A. DODGERS | 08/03 | 10:10 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -153
ANALYSIS: My model says the Dodgers win in almost 70 percent of the simulations, so you're getting excellent value with them at this number. Los Angeles RHP Walker Buehler has lost just one of his 21 starts this season and has been superb over his last four outings. The 27-year-old has gone 3-0 while allowing three runs while recording 32 strikeouts over 27 1/3 innings in that span. Houston RHP Lance McCullers Jr. has yielded four runs in each of his last two turns. Take the Dodgers.
ATLANTA @ ST. LOUIS | 08/03 | 8:15 PM EDT
ATLANTA -125
ANALYSIS: My model says the Braves win in almost 70 percent of the simulations, so you're getting excellent value with them at this number. Atlanta LHP Max Fried pitched well enough to notch his third win in four starts last time out, allowing just two runs in seven innings while registering a season-high nine strikeouts. He is 2-0 with a 0.61 ERA in three career meetings with St. Louis, including a victory on June 18 in which he gave up one run and two hits in seven frames. Expect him to continue his success against the Cardinals.
ladelphia.
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON | 08/03 | 7:05 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA -160
ANALYSIS: Washington had a chance at yesterday’s matchup, but its thin bullpen ultimately let the Nats down. The matchup today is much tougher. Washington lost in yesterday’s series opener, 7-5. The Nationals are 0-6 since Sept. 12, 2020, as a dog after a game as a home dog in which they allowed at least six runs. The Washington bullpen allowed six runs in that game including all five runs in the ninth inning. The Nationals are 1-10 since June 25 past the first game of a series after their bullpen allowed multiple runs in the previous game.
JM Sports
JM SPORTS
Game: (909) Chicago Cubs at (910) Colorado Rockies
Date/Time: Aug 3 2021 8:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3 units
Play: Colorado Rockies -145 Z Davies (RHP), K Freeland (LHP) Must Start
FIST HALF - FIRST 5 INNINGS
#910 Colorado
Rockies are now 16-4 as a home favorite while the Cubs are 10-29 as an away dog.
Freeland is in solid form allowing one run to the Dodgers & Padres in his last two starts throwing 13 innings. Davies with a 4.35 road ERA and 1.63 road WHIP
JM SPORTS
Game: (909) Chicago Cubs at (910) Colorado Rockies
Date/Time: Aug 3 2021 8:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3 units
Play: Colorado Rockies -145 Z Davies (RHP), K Freeland (LHP) Must Start
FIST HALF - FIRST 5 INNINGS
#910 Colorado
Rockies are now 16-4 as a home favorite while the Cubs are 10-29 as an away dog.
Freeland is in solid form allowing one run to the Dodgers & Padres in his last two starts throwing 13 innings. Davies with a 4.35 road ERA and 1.63 road WHIP
Matt Snyder
CHI. CUBS @ COLORADO | 08/03 | 8:40 PM EDT
COLORADO -135
ANALYSIS: The Cubs recently gutted their roster and they were already terrible away from Wrigley Field. They are 20-35 on the road. One of the few veterans they kept is starter Zach Davies and it's good news for us because he can't regularly work deep into games. He's only gone more than six innings twice in 22 starts. Having traded their three best relievers, the Cubs' bullpen is now terrible, too. The Rockies, meanwhile, are 33-20 at home. The odds should be way heavier in the Rockies favor in this one.
CHI. CUBS @ COLORADO | 08/03 | 8:40 PM EDT
COLORADO -135
ANALYSIS: The Cubs recently gutted their roster and they were already terrible away from Wrigley Field. They are 20-35 on the road. One of the few veterans they kept is starter Zach Davies and it's good news for us because he can't regularly work deep into games. He's only gone more than six innings twice in 22 starts. Having traded their three best relievers, the Cubs' bullpen is now terrible, too. The Rockies, meanwhile, are 33-20 at home. The odds should be way heavier in the Rockies favor in this one.
7:05 PM EST
Rotation #901-902
Phillies/Nationals Over 8 runs
Wheeler/Corbin
This is a pretty big park so the balls don’t fly out of here, but the humidity will rise as the game goes on and both teams went long last night. This is a game to me where Philly should get 8 runs themselves. This team exploded for 5 runs in the 9th last night and that should carry over tonight. The Phillies bullpen is really weak so any late runs could be what puts us over this total. Last night these teams combined for 7 runs in the 9th inning alone. Even if this game is tight you just can’t trust it to stay low scoring. Take the Over.
