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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trends - San Diego at Arizona


W/L Trends


San Diego
•Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Padres are 4-9 in their last 13 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Padres are 3-8 in their last 11 overall.
• Padres are 3-8 in their last 11 games on grass.
• Padres are 14-38 in their last 52 road games.
• Padres are 7-19 in their last 26 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Padres are 8-22 in their last 30 Tuesday games.
• Padres are 2-7 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Padres are 1-5 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Padres are 1-6 in their last 7 games following a loss.
• Padres are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• Padres are 5-0 in Richards last 5 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Padres are 7-0 in Richards last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Padres are 4-0 in Richards last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Padres are 5-1 in Richards last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Padres are 7-2 in Richards last 9 starts vs. National League West.
• Padres are 9-3 in Richards last 12 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
• Padres are 6-2 in Richards last 8 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Padres are 6-2 in Richards last 8 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Padres are 8-3 in Richards last 11 starts.
• Padres are 8-3 in Richards last 11 starts on grass.
• Padres are 6-13 in Richards last 19 starts during game 2 of a series.
• Padres are 4-9 in Richards last 13 road starts.



Arizona
•Diamondbacks are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Diamondbacks are 17-4 in their last 21 home games.
• Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• Diamondbacks are 7-2 in their last 9 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Diamondbacks are 11-4 in their last 15 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Diamondbacks are 5-2 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Diamondbacks are 11-5 in their last 16 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Diamondbacks are 13-6 in their last 19 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Diamondbacks are 8-20 in their last 28 during game 2 of a series.
• Diamondbacks are 7-19 in Corbins last 26 starts.
• Diamondbacks are 7-20 in Corbins last 27 starts on grass.
• Diamondbacks are 6-18 in Corbins last 24 home starts.
• Diamondbacks are 5-16 in Corbins last 21 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
• Diamondbacks are 1-4 in Corbins last 5 Tuesday starts.
• Diamondbacks are 1-5 in Corbins last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
• Diamondbacks are 1-6 in Corbins last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.
• Diamondbacks are 2-12 in Corbins last 14 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Diamondbacks are 1-8 in Corbins last 9 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Diamondbacks are 0-5 in Corbins last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
• Diamondbacks are 0-6 in Corbins last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Diamondbacks are 0-6 in Corbins last 6 starts vs. National League West.
• Diamondbacks are 0-5 in Corbins last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.


OU Trends


San Diego
•Over is 3-0-1 in Padres last 4 overall.
• Over is 3-0-1 in Padres last 4 on grass.
• Over is 5-1-1 in Padres last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Over is 5-1 in Padres last 6 games following a loss.
• Under is 5-1 in Padres last 6 during game 2 of a series.
• Over is 4-1 in Padres last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1-1 in Padres last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Under is 7-2-1 in Padres last 10 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 3-1-1 in Padres last 5 Tuesday games.
• Under is 6-2 in Padres last 8 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Under is 14-5 in Padres last 19 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 5-2 in Padres last 7 vs. National League West.
• Under is 4-0 in Richards last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 6-1 in Richards last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
• Under is 5-1 in Richards last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in Richards last 5 Tuesday starts.
• Under is 4-1 in Richards last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in Richards last 5 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 9-3 in Richards last 12 starts during game 2 of a series.
• Under is 5-2 in Richards last 7 starts on grass.
• Under is 5-2 in Richards last 7 road starts.
• Under is 5-2 in Richards last 7 starts overall.



Arizona
•Under is 5-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
• Over is 8-2 in Diamondbacks last 10 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 7-2 in Diamondbacks last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Over is 19-6-1 in Diamondbacks last 26 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Over is 38-12-2 in Diamondbacks last 52 home games.
• Under is 6-2 in Diamondbacks last 8 games following a win.
• Over is 20-8-1 in Diamondbacks last 29 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• Over is 5-2 in Diamondbacks last 7 during game 2 of a series.
• Over is 17-8-3 in Diamondbacks last 28 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 7-0 in Corbins last 7 starts during game 2 of a series.
• Over is 4-0 in Corbins last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Over is 7-1 in Corbins last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
• Over is 7-1 in Corbins last 8 starts vs. National League West.
• Over is 5-1 in Corbins last 6 home starts.
• Over is 5-1 in Corbins last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 15-3 in Corbins last 18 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 13-3 in Corbins last 16 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in Corbins last 5 Tuesday starts.
• Over is 19-6-1 in Corbins last 26 starts on grass.
• Over is 19-6-1 in Corbins last 26 starts overall.
• Over is 15-5-1 in Corbins last 21 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Over is 8-3 in Corbins last 11 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
• Over is 10-4-1 in Corbins last 15 starts with 4 days of rest.


Head to Head


•Over is 5-1 in Richards last 6 road starts vs. Diamondbacks.
• Padres are 4-1 in Richards last 5 road starts vs. Diamondbacks.
• Under is 4-1 in Richards last 5 starts vs. Diamondbacks.
• Padres are 9-3 in Richards last 12 starts vs. Diamondbacks.
• Over is 20-7 in the last 27 meetings in Arizona.
• Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
• Padres are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings.
• Padres are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Arizona.



Umpire Trends - Gary Cederstrom


•Home team is 6-0 in Cederstroms last 6 Tuesday games behind home plate.
• Padres are 4-0 in their last 4 Tuesday games with Cederstrom behind home plate.
• Over is 4-0 in Cederstroms last 4 games behind home plate vs. San Diego.
• Under is 12-2 in Cederstroms last 14 Tuesday games behind home plate.
• Road team is 6-1 in Cederstroms last 7 games behind home plate vs. San Diego.
• Home team is 20-6 in Cederstroms last 26 games behind home plate.
• Under is 9-3 in Cederstroms last 12 games behind home plate.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trends - Oakland at LA Angels


W/L Trends


Oakland
•Athletics are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. American League West.
• Athletics are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Athletics are 5-1 in their last 6 overall.
• Athletics are 5-1 in their last 6 games on grass.
• Athletics are 5-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
• Athletics are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Athletics are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Athletics are 8-3 in their last 11 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Athletics are 5-2 in their last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Athletics are 29-63 in their last 92 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Athletics are 2-5 in their last 7 games following an off day.
• Athletics are 3-8 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
• Athletics are 7-20 in their last 27 during game 1 of a series.
• Athletics are 6-1 in Hahns last 7 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Athletics are 6-1 in Hahns last 7 starts vs. American League West.
• Athletics are 1-4 in Hahns last 5 road starts.



LA Angels
•Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 Tuesday games.
• Angels are 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
• Angels are 13-5 in their last 18 home games.
• Angels are 7-16 in their last 23 during game 1 of a series.
• Angels are 2-5 in their last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Angels are 3-10 in their last 13 overall.
• Angels are 3-10 in their last 13 games on grass.
• Angels are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Angels are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Angels are 2-8 in their last 10 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Angels are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Angels are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. American League West.
• Angels are 1-5 in their last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.


OU Trends


Oakland
•Under is 4-1 in Athletics last 5 games following an off day.
• Under is 4-1 in Athletics last 5 road games.
• Under is 4-1 in Athletics last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
• Under is 4-1 in Athletics last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Under is 7-2 in Athletics last 9 games following a loss.
• Under is 20-6-1 in Athletics last 27 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 7-3 in Athletics last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Under is 7-3 in Athletics last 10 during game 1 of a series.
• Over is 4-0 in Hahns last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
• Over is 4-0 in Hahns last 4 starts vs. American League West.
• Over is 8-1 in Hahns last 9 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 5-1-1 in Hahns last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.
• Over is 4-1-1 in Hahns last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
• Over is 4-1 in Hahns last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1-1 in Hahns last 6 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.



LA Angels
•Under is 2-0-2 in Angels last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Over is 5-0-2 in Angels last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Under is 4-0 in Angels last 4 vs. American League West.
• Under is 7-1 in Angels last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 6-1-2 in Angels last 9 home games.
• Over is 4-1-1 in Angels last 6 games following a win.
• Under is 8-2 in Angels last 10 during game 1 of a series.
• Under is 18-7-1 in Angels last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
• Under is 37-15-2 in Angels last 54 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Under is 34-15-3 in Angels last 52 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Under is 38-18-3 in Angels last 59 on grass.
• Under is 39-19-4 in Angels last 62 overall.


Head to Head


•Over is 17-3-1 in the last 21 meetings in Los Angeles.
• Athletics are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings.
• Athletics are 1-6 in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trends - LA Dodgers at San Francisco


W/L Trends


LA Dodgers
•Dodgers are 9-3 in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
• Dodgers are 19-9 in their last 28 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Dodgers are 4-9 in their last 13 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Dodgers are 2-5 in their last 7 Tuesday games.
• Dodgers are 2-5 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Dodgers are 7-19 in their last 26 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Dodgers are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. National League West.
• Dodgers are 2-6 in their last 8 overall.
• Dodgers are 2-6 in their last 8 games on grass.
• Dodgers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games.
• Dodgers are 3-13 in their last 16 games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Dodgers are 1-5 in their last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Dodgers are 5-1 in Kershaws last 6 Tuesday starts.
• Dodgers are 40-11 in Kershaws last 51 starts vs. National League West.
• Dodgers are 54-19 in Kershaws last 73 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Dodgers are 64-23 in Kershaws last 87 starts.
• Dodgers are 63-23 in Kershaws last 86 starts on grass.
• Dodgers are 13-5 in Kershaws last 18 road starts.
• Dodgers are 50-20 in Kershaws last 70 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
• Dodgers are 17-7 in Kershaws last 24 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Dodgers are 36-15 in Kershaws last 51 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Dodgers are 36-16 in Kershaws last 52 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Dodgers are 51-23 in Kershaws last 74 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Dodgers are 11-5 in Kershaws last 16 starts during game 2 of a series.
• Dodgers are 50-23 in Kershaws last 73 starts with 5 days of rest.



San Francisco
•Giants are 6-2 in their last 8 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Giants are 38-18 in their last 56 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Giants are 11-29 in their last 40 games following a win.
• Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series.
• Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
• Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
• Giants are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. National League West.
• Giants are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• Giants are 1-5 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Giants are 0-5 in their last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.


OU Trends


LA Dodgers
•Under is 6-1-1 in Dodgers last 8 Tuesday games.
• Under is 6-1 in Dodgers last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 games following a loss.
• Under is 20-6-3 in Dodgers last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
• Under is 6-2 in Dodgers last 8 overall.
• Under is 9-3 in Dodgers last 12 road games.
• Under is 6-2 in Dodgers last 8 on grass.
• Under is 6-2 in Dodgers last 8 vs. National League West.
• Under is 5-2 in Dodgers last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Under is 38-17-3 in Dodgers last 58 during game 2 of a series.
• Over is 13-6 in Dodgers last 19 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Under is 5-0-1 in Kershaws last 6 starts during game 2 of a series.
• Under is 6-1 in Kershaws last 7 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 5-1-1 in Kershaws last 7 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 12-3-1 in Kershaws last 16 road starts.
• Over is 6-2 in Kershaws last 8 Tuesday starts.
• Under is 6-2 in Kershaws last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
• Under is 5-2 in Kershaws last 7 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 27-11-1 in Kershaws last 39 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
• Under is 7-3 in Kershaws last 10 starts vs. National League West.
• Under is 34-16-1 in Kershaws last 51 starts overall.
• Under is 35-17 in Kershaws last 52 starts on grass.



San Francisco
•Under is 5-0 in Giants last 5 games following a win.
• Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 7-1 in Giants last 8 home games.
• Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• Over is 4-1-1 in Giants last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Under is 10-3 in Giants last 13 overall.
• Under is 10-3 in Giants last 13 on grass.
• Over is 8-3-1 in Giants last 12 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Under is 8-3 in Giants last 11 vs. National League West.


Head to Head


•Under is 14-2-1 in Kershaws last 17 road starts vs. Giants.
• Dodgers are 6-1 in Kershaws last 7 starts vs. Giants.
• Under is 21-4-2 in Kershaws last 27 starts vs. Giants.
• Under is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings in San Francisco.
• Dodgers are 11-5 in Kershaws last 16 road starts vs. Giants.
• Dodgers are 4-17 in the last 21 meetings in San Francisco.
• Dodgers are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings.



Umpire Trends - Adam Hamari


•Under is 4-0 in Hamaris last 4 games behind home plate.
• Over is 5-2 in Hamaris last 7 games behind home plate vs. Los Angeles.
• Giants are 0-4 in their last 4 games with Hamari behind home plate.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony Karpinski
NBA | Apr 25, 2017
Jazz vs. Clippers
Clippers -3 -108 at 5DIMES

LA plays best when Chris Paul is attacking the rim, and that's very hard to stop. Paul has been putting up 27/game and it isn't going to stop. LA needs to keep on playing until the end keeping their very skilled bigs involved.


The Jazz have lost their identity and the biggest obvious challenge they have is scoring. Only putting up around 98-100 ppg since the series began. Joe Ingles has proven to be a bit unadapt at making difficult shots and far too often Gordon Hayward's teammates are standing around watching him play his heart out - instead of making plays and working off him.

L.A. Clippers win by 7 by points or more on their home floor tonight!

Bonus Play

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vic Duke
MLB | Apr 25, 2017
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Red Sox -121 at BETONLINE

Yankees/Red Sox 7:10: Sox poised to win behind Porcello here. Red Sox are a strong 20-7 when Porcello starts and they're 7-1 with him on the mound at home against teams with winning records. Of course, this is a heated rivalry and Porcello brings with him a respectable 3.28 ERA in 14 starts vs NYY. On the other hand, New York goes with Luis Severino who is a sluggish 0-3 with a bloated 5.71 EAR in 4 games vs Boston; moreover, the Yankees are just 1-6 in his road starts and 3-12 in his last 15 starting appearances overall. The Yankees are a mere 4-10 in their last 14 road games and should find this a trouble spot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wunderdog

Kansas City @ Chicago
Pick: Chicago +112

Kansas City has the worst offense in baseball and plays its sixth straight road game. They aren't winning either, losing five in a row while getting outscored 26-6. Kansas City managed just two hits in the opener, losing 12-1 last night. The White Sox had 15 hits and went 7-for-12 with runners in scoring position. The Royals are a dismal 2-9 on the road and 22-45 away against a right-handed starter. Kansas City is also 6-20 when following a loss. Chicago is home for the fifth straight game and the team is 22-8 at home against a left-handed starter, so back the home dog and play the White Sox.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Yankees +104 over BOSTON

Rick Porcello (RHP) is Exhibit A on how pitchers are at whims of randomness, as his xERA has been flat for three years now. Porcello took pinpoint control to a new level last year with first-pitch strike rate support. That's the good news. The bad news is that his groundballs continued to turn into fly-balls and his swing and miss rate suggests his middling K-rate is here to stay. If you bet on Porcello, you are paying for a repeat of last year and that is not going to happen. Rick Porcello is nothing more than a reliable mid-rotation starter that is priced like an ace.

Few pitchers have been better than Luis Severino (RHP) in the early going. Severino has a BB/K split of 2/27 in 20 innings. That’s elite control with an elite strikeout rate. He has an elite batted ball profile of 50% groundballs, 17% line-drives and 33% fly-balls. His groundball rate in his last start was 65%. Severino’s 4.05 ERA is the result of bad luck. He comes in with a 2.22 xERA and a 0.80 WHIP and if he and the Yanks lose here so be it. However, when Severino, the Yankees and that #1 ranked bullpen is taking back a tag, it must be played and that applies here.

Seattle -1½ +126 over DETROIT

Felix Hernandez (RHP) may or may not do well here but one thing we know for sure is that King Felix can hang around for a few innings and has the ability to pitch a great game. That said, this has nothing to do with backing Hernandez.

We made the mistake of coming off the Mariners on Sunday after backing them and losing the first two games of that series but we’re not going to make that mistake again. The Mariners are an undervalued, offensive force that exploded on Sunday and we’ll rely on those bats to keep it going here against Jordan Zimmermann (RHP). Zimmermann has been a fade target of ours for a couple of years now but this year he’s not going to be overvalued much longer. Hell, he might not even be starting much longer because he has very little skills left. Zimmermann comes into this start with a 5.94 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He was a BB/K split of 7/10 through 17 frames and his xERA of 5.79 gives zero hope for a rebound. Even more concerning in his 20%/26%/54% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split that suggests the Mariners are going to be feasting here. Lastly, the Tigers bullpen is the worst in the majors right now with a 5.46 ERA and they’ll likely be asked to work at least four innings or more here.

COLORADO -1½ +195 over Washington

We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long:

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WAGERS

Washington to win East +165

The Capitals are in the -135 to -140 range to beat Pittsburgh in the second round but instead of spotting a price, we’ll take the Caps to advance to the next round, where they will be a much bigger favorite over New York or Ottawa, especially if they dispose of the Penguins quickly and then we’ll have Washington +165 in that series. At that point, we can always buy back the next opponent and free roll on the Caps, which is our plan for now. Therefore, this is a bet on Washington to defeat Pittsburgh to set up a free-roll for the East Finals.

What you are going to read or hear about over and over is Pittsburgh’s utter dominance against Washington over the last decade. Using that useless information to make a selection in this series is an exercise in futility. Of course the Penguins can win this series but if they do, it’s not because they beat Washington nine years ago.

Another thing you are going to read or hear about is the Capitals difficulty in disposing of the Maple Leafs. Well, let us turn that around. Toronto might have beaten almost any other team in the first round. They were loose, they’re extremely talented and they got outstanding goaltending from Fredrick Andersen for most of the series. The Capitals had to deal with speed, talent and an abundance of pressure to get by the first round. They answered the call in all areas and they also did not allow the Maple Leafs to sustain pressure in their end. For the most part, Toronto was one and done on far too many occasions. That first round prepped the Capitals well for what is in store for them here. The focus on the first round was how well the Maple Leafs played but let’s give some credit to the Capitals, as they were tremendous and also stepped up in the OT periods when they had to. Combine Washington’s difficulty with Toronto with Pittsburgh easily defeating the Jackets in five games and the market perception on this series is off.

Indeed the Pens defeated Columbus in five games but Pittsburgh was the second best team on the ice in all five games. We’re not going to bore you with all the stats but Columbus out-chanced, outshot, outworked and out-everythinged the Penguins in the first round and most of it was by a wide margin. The only reason that the Penguins aren’t watching round two from the rail is because Sergei Bobrovsky was atrocious. Had the Jackets switched to Joonas Korpisalo in Game 2, Pittsburgh would be golfing right now.

We often suggest not putting a lot of emphasis on one series or one game but it’s more than that. You see, the last repeat winners of the Cup were the Detroit Red Wings in 1997 and 1998, almost 20 years ago. That shows how difficult it is to repeat because playing well into June will burn out any team. Hockey is a physical, grueling game and to not have a significant break and then perform brilliantly in back-to-back playoff years is near impossible. We all saw the Sharks (last year’s other Stanley Cup finalist) bow out early this year and Pittsburgh should have been right behind them. The Penguins will not run into weak goaltending this series. Furthermore, the Penguins have to rely on Marc Andre Fleury and he’s always just a bad goal away from melting down entirely.

In the 2016 playoffs, Kris Letang exceeded 30 minutes of ice time in four of five games against the Capitals, including more than 35 minutes of regulation in Game 2. There will be no Kris Letang this year and that puts the Penguins at a disadvantage right off the bat. If anyone watched the Penguins trying to break out of their own end against the Jackets in the first round, it was painful. They were a mess and if they don’t or can’t clean that up, this series might be over quickly. The Pens might also be missing Carl Hagelin and Chris Kunitz for a game or longer and those role players are a big part of Pittsburgh’s success.

One can never count the Penguins out but the Capitals are hungrier and they’re better than Pittsburgh when the Pens don’t have Letang and are forced to use their backup goaltender. There is also the unlikely task of repeating that means so much more than Pittsburgh’s playoff domination over Washington. Teams’ still need a healthy dose of speed, skill and finesse to win at this time of year, but physicality becomes a big part of winning too. That is especially so on the forecheck, where a forward can disrupt a breakout with a big hit and cause a turnover. A disruptive hit early in a game can cause defensive indecision later and those turnovers and scoring chances keep coming. That’s what Columbus did to Pittsburgh and that’s what is likely to go down in this series too. The domination ends here.

We are going to make this a 3-unit bet with the intention of buying back one unit on the underdog in the next series should Washington get by Pittsburgh. That will set up a near free roll for 2 units at +165 in the East Finals.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cal Sports

Minnesota vs. Texas
Play: Under 9.5

No one has pitched better than Ervin Santana as he has an ERA of 0.64 and a WHIP of 0.607. Andrew Cashner takes the hill for Texas and he is making only his third start of the year allowing 4 runs ( # earned) in 5.3 innings in his debut but then pitched 6 shutout innings ( 3 hits) last Thursday. The Rangers offense scored just 19 runs their last 7 games and more importantly only had 41 hits. The Twins bats are also struggling scoring 25 runs their last 8 games while batting only .213 on the road.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Oskeim Sports

Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -105

Philadelphia flame-thrower Vince Velasquez continues to compile strikeouts in his second season with the Phillies, posting an 11.40 K/9 rate in his first three starts.

The 24-year-old is also inducing a career-best number of ground balls (46.2% GB%) and has enjoyed success against the Marlins. Specifically, Velasquez is 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in three career starts against Miami, allowing just one earned run on six hits in his last two outings (12 IP).
Miami southpaw Wei-Yin Chen is 1-2 with a career 3.70 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in four starts against the Phillies, but he has yielded a combined 11 runs (10 earned) on 28 hits in his two most recent outings versus the Phillies.

Let's also note that Chen has been pitching through a partial tear in the UCL of his left elbow since the end of 2016 and has been receiving special treatment after each start. The 31-year-old's strikeouts are declining (7.30 K/9 in 2016 compared to 5.63 K/9 this season) and he continues to yield too many fly balls (and home runs).

A 4.73 xFIP and 4.49 SIERA instill little confidence in Chen's future prospects, especially tonight in Philadelphia's home park that resembles a sandbox.

With Philadelphia taking the field on a four-game winning streak, take the Phillies at home and invest with confidence.

 

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Mikey Money

MLB RANGERS +100

 

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MVP Lock Club

MLB PHILLIES ‑110

 

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MLB SAN DIEGO +135

 

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NBA ROCKETS ‑7.5

 

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MLB MIAMI +105

 

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MLB TWINS ‑115

 

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MLB LA DODGERS ‑1.5 ‑120

 

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MLB REDS +105

 

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MLB BREWERS ‑115