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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds and Predictions: Tuesday, April 21 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

I love the NBA playoffs, but I think it’s fair to say that the opening weekend of the postseason was a bit of a bore (other than Raptors GM Masai Ujiri dropping another profane bomb in public and earning a hefty fine from the league again). The only road team to win was Washington in overtime at Toronto; otherwise the home teams won pretty comfortably. That’s no fun. I only give Washington a shot for a road team to win among Tuesday’s three games as well.

♦Game 2: Celtics at Cavaliers (-11, 207)

A 7 p.m. start on TNT. Cleveland took Game 1 113-100 as an 11.5-point favorite. Iman Shumpert made two otherwise meaningless free throws with 20 seconds left to cover the spread. Boston’s Phil Pressey missed a 3-pointer and then a driving layup to keep it that way. Kyrie Irving looked great in his first-ever playoff game with 30 points and just one turnover. He is only the 11th player to score at least 30 in his playoff debut. LeBron James had a typical LeBron game with 20 points, seven assists and six rebounds. Kevin Love also was solid in his playoff debut with 19 points and 12 rebounds. It was Cleveland’s first home playoff game since May 11, 2010, when the Celtics won Game 5 of the East semifinals — that would be LeBron’s final home game before leaving for Miami.

Isaiah Thomas scored 22 points off the bench to lead the Celtics, the only Boston player with more than 12. Evan Turner had 12 points, seven rebounds and five assists, but the Celtics were outscored by 18 points with him on the court. Avery Bradley was nearly invisible, going 3-for-10 for seven points and continually being torched by Irving; Bradley is considered one of the top perimeter defenders in the game. The Celtics had ranked third in the NBA since the All-Star break in turnover percentage, giving it away 13.1 percent of the time. They turned it over 14 times that led to 20 Cleveland points. The Celtics attempted fewer free throws (22) than Cleveland made (26). That’s home-court advantage for you.

Updated series line: Cavaliers -10000, Celtics +2500

Key trends: Boston is 5-1 against the spread in its past six road games. The Cavs are 1-5 ATS in their past six after a win of more than 10 points. The “over/under” has gone over in five of Boston’s past six road games. The under is 5-2 in the past seven meetings in Cleveland.

Early lean: Cavaliers and over.



♦Game 2: Wizards at Raptors (-5, 191.5)

This tips at 8 p.m. on NBA TV. I did take the Wizards and the points in Game 1 and they won 93-86 in a game that really shouldn’t have gone to overtime as the Wizards gagged away a 15-point fourth-quarter lead. Paul Pierce had five of his 20 points in the OT and Nene had a double-double with 12 points and 13 rebounds. The Wizards improved to 5-1 this season when Pierce scores at least 20 points. It was only the sixth time this season he led the team in scoring. He moved into 22nd on the all-time postseason scoring list with 3,027 points. Washington’s John Wall was just 5-for-18 from the field and Bradley Beal 6-for-23. Nine times out of 10 the Wizards will lose when those guys shoot that way.

However, Toronto’s Kyle Lowry, who still doesn’t look healthy, was just 2-for-10 from the field and DeMar DeRozan 6-for-20. Lowry’s seven points are his fewest in a game this year in which he attempted at least 10 shots. DeRozan was the only Raptors starter in double-figure points. All four bench guys had at least 10 points, led by Amir Johnson’s 18. The Raptors bench guys shot 47.6 percent from the field compared to 30 percent from the starters. Toronto was just 6-for-29 from long range. The Raptors are now 0-7 all-time in Game 1 of a first-round playoff series. Interestingly, the home team has lost eight of the last 10 overtime playoff games in the NBA.

Updated series line: Wizards -165, Raptors +145

Key trends: Washington is 5-1 ATS in its past six road games. The Raptors are 2-10 ATS in their past 12 vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 6-2 in the Wizards’ past eight vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 7-2 in the past nine meetings.

Early lean: Raptors will play with more urgency and cover. Go under.



♦Game 2: Mavericks at Rockets (-5.5, 215)

Start time of 9:30 on TNT. Houston took Game 1 118-108. James Harden led seven Rockets in double-figure points with 24. Houston lost both home games last season in its first-round series loss to Portland. Patrick Beverley wasn’t able to make it back from a wrist injury and ageless Jason Terry had 16 points in his starting spot. Houston says it will increase Dwight Howard’s minutes in the playoffs, but he was on the floor for only 17:22 in this one. He was battling foul trouble. The Rockets were 25.8 points per 100 possessions better than the Mavericks when Howard was on the court. The Mavericks shot 36 percent from the floor when he was in and 50 percent when he was out.

Dirk Nowitzki led Dallas with 24 points and Tyson Chandler had 11 points and 18 rebounds. But Monta Ellis and Chandler Parsons both struggled. Ellis was 5-for-16 from the field and Parsons 5-for-15. Parsons played through a knee injury but clearly was struggling with it and is considered questionable for this one. Backup point guard Devin Harris aggravated a toe injury in the game and also is questionable.

Updated series line: Rockets -400, Mavericks +320.

Key trends: Dallas is 3-14 ATS in its past 17 road games vs. teams with a winning home record. Houston is 8-1 ATS in its past nine at home vs. teams with a winning road record. The over is 7-0 in the Mavs’ past seven. The over is 6-2 in the past eight meetings in Houston.

Early lean: Rockets and over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five To Follow MLB Betting: Tuesday, April 21, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

The Cubs’ Kris Bryant stole all the headlines in Chicago and around baseball over the weekend as he made his much-anticipated big-league debut against the Padres. There’s a pretty good prospect on the South Side of the Windy City as well. That’s pitcher Carlos Rodon, the No. 3 overall pick out of last year’s draft from N.C. State. He has been recalled from Triple-A Charlotte and will start his career in the bullpen, but that won’t last very long. He’ll move into the rotation pretty quickly, probably to take the spot of No. 5 guy Hector Noesi.

♦Cardinals at Nationals (-117, 7)

Start of a three-game series and the only visit of the season for St. Louis, although certainly these two could meet again this October. I expect the Cards to repeat in the NL Central and the Nats to do the same in the NL East. Lance Lynn (1-1, 1.64) goes for St. Louis. He has allowed one earned run in each of his first two starts. Last year, he was 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA in two starts against Washington. Danny Espinosa is 3-for-8 with two homers off him. Bryce Harper has a solo homer in six at-bats. Lefty Gio Gonzalez (1-1, 5.11) goes for Washington. It’s his first home start of the year and he was 5-3 with a 3.50 ERA in 13 starts there last year. Yadier Molina is 3-for-9 with two doubles off him.

Key trends: St. Louis is 11-3 in its past 14 against lefties. It is 10-3 in Lynn’s past 13 vs. the NL East. The Nats are 1-4 in their past five series openers. The “over/under” has gone under in 10 of the past 13 meetings. St. Louis is 6-2 in its past eight at Washington.

Early lean: Cardinals and under.



♦Twins at Royals (-153, 8)

Kansas City put All-Star closer Greg Holland on the disabled list over the weekend with a pectoral strain. He won the inaugural Mariano Rivera Award as the AL’s top closer last year and had a postseason record-tying seven saves in the playoffs. Wade Davis takes over in the ninth. Lefty Jason Vargas (1-1, 6.00) starts for Kansas City. He had maybe his worst outing as a Royal last time out, allowing five runs and 10 hits in three innings off a loss at the Twins. Joe Mauer is a career .400 hitter off him in 30 at-bats with eight RBIs. Lefty Tommy Milone (2-0, 2.08) gets the call for the Twins. He beat the Royals opposite Vargas last time out, allowing three runs and seven hits over 5.1 innings. Salvador Perez is 6-for-14 with two doubles off him. Eric Hosmer has a homer in 14 at-bats against Milone.

Key trends: Minnesota is 1-7 in its past eight against left-handers. K.C. is 9-1 in its past 10 at home against a lefty. The under is 5-2 in Vargas’ past seven at home.

Early lean: Royals and under.



♦Cubs at Pirates (-159, 7)

I say that Bryant gets his first homer in this series if he didn’t on Monday night. Getting away from Chicago should help him stop pressing a bit. Bryant faces Pirates starter Francisco Liriano (0-1, 2.08) on Tuesday. Six times last season he pitched at least innings without allowing more than two runs yet didn’t win. That has been the case in both his starts in 2015. Liriano has allowed a dinger in each start so maybe Bryant gets him. You could see Welington Castillo get the start behind the plate as he’s 4-for-12 with a homer in his career off Liriano. Anthony Rizzo also has a homer off Liriano but only three total hits in 18 at-bats with seven strikeouts. Lefty Travis Wood (1-1, 2.31), maybe the best-hitting pitcher in MLB, starts for the Cubs. He was great last time out, shutting out the Reds on three hits over seven innings. Andrew McCutchen is 7-for-27 with two homers and seven RBIs off Wood.

Key trends: The Cubs are 2-5 in Wood’s past seven on the road. The Pirates are 1-5 in Liriano’s past six at home. The Cubs are 1-5 in Wood’s past six vs. Pittsburgh.

Early lean: Pirates and over.



♦Indians at White Sox (+119, 8.5)

Carlos Carrasco takes the mound for Cleveland, and he avoided a potentially scary injury in his last start. He was hit in the face by a comebacker off the bat of the White Sox’s Melky Cabrera last Tuesday. He was OK, though his next start was then pushed back a couple of days. Carrasco was charged with two runs against Chicago as he didn’t get an out before the injury. He was stellar in his season debut, shutting out Houston on three hits over 6.1 innings and striking out 10. Cabrera does hit Carrasco well in his career, going 6-for-11 with a double, homer and five RBIs. It’s Noesi for Chicago. He lasted just 4.2 innings in his lone start thus far, allowing two runs and walking six against the Twins. He was 1-1 with a 4.26 ERA in three starts last year against Cleveland. Michael Bourn is 4-for-7 with a homer and five RBIs off him.

Key trends: The Indians are 4-1 in Carrasco’s past five on the road. The Sox are 0-4 in Noesi’s past four starts. The under is 12-1 in Carrasco’s past 13 starts.

Early lean: Indians and under.



♦Orioles at Blue Jays (-135, 8.5)

Toronto could be without its double play combination for the series opener. Shortstop Jose Reyes hasn’t played since Thursday due to a cracked rib and will be evaluated again Tuesday. He might play or might go on the disabled list. If Reyes does play through it, the switch-hitter will only bat from the right side. Second baseman Devon Travis left Sunday’s game after being hit by a pitch in the ribs but X-rays showed no breaks and he’s day-to-day. Travis has been great as a rookie, leading the Jays in average (.356), homers (three) and RBIs (12). Veteran left-hander Mark Buehrle starts for Toronto and the Jays have scored 12 runs in both of his starts thus far. His season debut was in Baltimore, where Buehrle allowed two runs over six innings. Adam Jones kills him, going 14-for-34 with two homers and seven knocked in. Bud Norris (0-1, 12.38) starts for the Birds. He was shelled by Toronto on April 10 opposite Buehrle, allowing eight runs in three innings. Dioner Navarro is 6-for-16 off him with two doubles and a homer.

Key trends: The Orioles are 6-1 in Norris’ past seven series-opening starts. The Jays are 1-6 in their past seven at home vs. a right-handed starter. The Orioles are 6-1 in Norris’ past seven vs. Toronto. The Jays are 2-5 in Buehrle’s past seven vs. Baltimore.

Early lean: Blue Jays (I don’t think they score 12 runs again) and over.