Weekly Betting Notes
By Matt Zylbert
As we march into the latter portion of April with two full weeks in the books now, some teams have already begun to make their move towards cementing legitimacy, while others are hurriedly seeking answers in trying to dig out of slumps they might currently be mired in. Either way, it was another notable seven days of baseball this past week, so let’s review some of it, and take a look at the week ahead.
-- Mega prospect Kris Bryant is now up for the Cubs after debuting on Friday, and despite an 0-for-4, three-strikeout performance in his much-anticipated first game, the 23-year-old third baseman bounced back over the weekend by going 3-for-6 with three walks one RBI. Some people were worried that Chicago might be a little erratic out of the gate, due to the on-going controversy of leaving Bryant in the minor leagues to begin the season despite the fact that he was the best hitter in spring training, but instead, the Cubs managed to play well, and now have their future face of the franchise up to help continue their surge. They’ve been getting a balanced effort on both sides of the ball, led by Jorge Soler on offense and Jake Arrieta pacing the pitching staff. Interestingly, Jon Lester has been off thus far, so when he inevitably gets going, that can only provide a considerable boost for Chicago. I detailed them as one of my sure-to-improve teams of 2015, and they certainly look like they’ll be contending all-year long. With Bryant now in the picture, a hot run could be on the horizon, and have an interesting division showdown this week coming up against the Pirates.
-- Another week, another impressive showing by the AL Central-resident Tigers and Royals, who continue to engage in one of the more emerging rivalries in sports right now. Detroit is 10-2 after taking another series, this time from the White Sox, while Kansas City is coming off an impressive series victory over the Athletics to move to 9-3. With those records, both teams own the top two marks in the American League entering the third week. And it’s all the more impressive when you consider how a couple of other clubs in the division, the White Sox and Indians, were expected to be solid and contend this year, but are currently stuck under .500, and even below the Twins. The Tigers and Royals are also each 7-5 towards the over in the early going.
-- The Giants lost another series over the weekend -- this time at home to the team with the worst record in baseball last year, Arizona -- and the defending World Series champions now find themselves in last place in the NL West with a 4-10 record. It shouldn’t be that surprising, as anyone who religiously follows baseball knows that despite winning the title last year, the Giants weren’t the best team, and combined with the injuries they’ve been dealing with and the offseason departure of Pablo Sandoval, a regression was more so expected than anything else. The fact that they’ve spiraled down so quickly, though, is definitely intriguing. For bettors debating whether or not to tail San Francisco, with hope they can suddenly get back on track since they’re the champs, that probably wouldn’t be so wise, as this looks like something that can take some time before the Giants are able to right the ship. Their offense and pitching have been inconsistent, and until there’s some normalcy there, it’s probably best to avoid taking them unless you find the right spot.
-- With a three-game sweep of Tampa Bay, the Yankees are suddenly looking hot, having now soared back to the .500 mark. They’re a team definitely worth monitoring from a betting standpoint, as we’ve seen them propel on long runs before. At the very least, they should definitely be on everyone’s radar as far as over/unders go, as their three-game series with the Rays provided three more overs, bringing their record to an MLB-best 10-2 in over betting. With so much ammo in their lineup, featuring numerous guys capable of doing considerable damage in any given at-bat, maybe this isn’t such a surprise, especially with Alex Rodriguez looking a bit like his old self. They should continue to make some noise in the coming weeks, although it’s hard to see their stud starting pitchers Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda continue to contribute towards overs. Tanaka is coming off his finest outing in awhile on Saturday, while Pineda always has the potential to dominate any given lineup when he toes the rubber.
-- The Nationals impressively responded to their first-week struggles pretty quickly, and coming off a series in which they took three of four from Philadelphia over the weekend, it appears they’re back in form. However, they’re really going to have to work hard if they want to live up to their -500 NL East-winning odds, considering they’re still looking up at the ascending Mets and Braves. I said it a hundred times that New York was for real this season so their incredible start doesn’t surprise me, but Atlanta being 8-4 when they’re supposed to be in a “lost” year certainly does. As a result, we could have ourselves a very compelling three-way race for division supremacy that plays out very closely the rest of the year. Meanwhile, the Marlins have some issues that need to be corrected right away or they’ll be in danger of digging themselves too deep a hole, given how their division residents above them are performing. Their offense just hasn’t gotten going yet, and their rotation has been too inconsistent. They could be a team to fade, just as I suggested for their series loss to the Mets this past weekend.
Upcoming Series to Watch
New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers
As already mentioned, the Yankees are suddenly hot after an impressive sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend, and now they’ll really be tested against a team that actually hasn’t even cooled off yet, that of course being the 10-2 Detroit Tigers. The Tigers have been doing it on both sides of the ball, as evident in the fact that their +33 run differential is the best in baseball. Remarkably, they’re tied for the league-lead in runs scored (68), and if not for the Cardinals, their 35 runs given up would be the lowest of any team.
It will be an interesting measuring stick for both squads -- one seeking to see if their current win streak is legit enough to push them past the class of the American League; the other seeking to see if their MLB-best ways can continue through at least one more series against a quality team. The series commences tonight as the ESPN Monday Night Baseball game, with Alfredo Simon squaring off against C.C. Sabathia. While this might look like an advantage in favor of Simon at first glance, Sabathia is coming off a solid seven-inning start in Baltimore last week, and has actually looked good this year after missing most of 2014. Through two starts, he’s compiled an astounding 15/1 K/BB ratio in 12.2 innings, which could be a strong sign of things to come.
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
This isn’t just because I’m a Rangers fan but the AL West is my favorite division in all of baseball right now. Everybody is bunched together within 1.5 games of the division lead, and no team is currently over .500 after the season’s opening two weeks. On top of that, it’s the unlikely Astros who find themselves in first place under new manager A.J. Hinch. When will somebody begin to break from the pack?
A run for the division crown could begin to formulate right here, as two of the teams expected to duke it out for AL West, the Angels and Athletics, are set to meet for the first time this year, in a four-game series. Ironically, despite having one of the best home records a year ago, Anaheim enters this one being 0-3 at Angel Stadium, which was the result of a three-game sweep at the hands of the Royals. The A’s, meanwhile, have the league’s second best run differential at +24, and have looked good early on despite being 6-7. Only one of those teams will ascend over .500 when this set is over, making it as crucial as an April series could be. Rookie Kendall Graveman takes the ball for Oakland in game one against sophomore Matt Shoemaker.
Team to Watch
I’ve already wrote a lot about the Mets this year, dubbing them my main breakout team of 2015 coming into the campaign (And assuring you that Over 82½ Wins was the best Win Total on the board), and detailed them further in my “Fearless Prediction” from my Weekend Primer article this past week, stressing they would continue their dominant ways with a series win over the Marlins. They ended up sweeping that four-game set at Citi Field to extend their current win streak to eight, and now enter the third week of the season with the best record in the National League.
Simply put, everything is clicking for New York right now and everyone should be taking notice. This is no fluke, nor any sort of aberration. I actually had the Mets making the playoffs this season for the first time since 2006, and based on their marvelous start, it’s looking very promising that a berth in the postseason will indeed occur. It was already a given that their starting pitching would be outstanding, and that’s been exactly the case, as Matt Harvey and reigning NL Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom have led the way. deGrom, actually, has one of the best ERAs in baseball at 0.93, and Bartolo Colon and Jon Niese have also been very good. In addition, the bullpen’s been holding their end, too, even with closer Jenrry Mejia out via suspension.
The key for the Mets’ early success, though, might be related to their offense. Even with David Wright landing on the disabled list, the Mets are proving that their lineup is legit for the first time in years, getting consistent production from their bats and timely hitting in the process. Lucas Duda and Michael Cuddyer continue to solidify themselves as formidable middle-of-the-order sluggers, both combining for 15 RBI, while Travis d’Arnaud has been living up to my expectations of being one of the better offensive catchers in the league. Surprisingly, they’ve also received some notable contributions from Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada at shortstop, which was considered the Mets’ biggest weakness entering ’15.
Another interesting note concerning the organization from Flushing is that despite being one of top teams for unders throughout the past handful of years, the Mets have suddenly become one of the best over clubs, currently sitting at 8-4 for over bets on the year, including a shocking 3-0 when Harvey toes the rubber. Due to their strong and steady starting pitching, I do not expect this trend to continue at such a high clip. But as far as tailing the Mets through moneyline and runline bets, that’s probably a pretty good idea at this point in time, although Vegas will surely begin to start listing them as heavier favorites.
Fearless Prediction
-- The Rockies, having experienced a soaring start, were humbled in Los Angeles this weekend after getting swept by the Dodgers, and although they’re returning home where they’re considerably better, I think they’ll drop their upcoming series to the Padres. As I’ve said all along, the NL West race is going to come down to a very closely-contested battle between the Padres and Dodgers, and with LA riding a seven-game winning streak into first, I think San Diego will continue to win on their own accord as well, thus keeping up with their division rivals. The Padres already have nearly as many homers this year (12) as they did through the entire first two months of last season (15), which is obviously no coincidence. Their offense is much, much improved from years’ past, and they’ll continue to swing the lumber effectively, especially being at Coors Field. Don’t be afraid to take them for the series, especially since you’ll probably be getting plus odds.
