Tuesday 11/25/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Chilly, but clear night in Oxford for MAC action
Stephen Campbell

It's going to be a chilly night in Oxford Tuesday for the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks' matchup against the Ohio Bobcats for Rivalry Week.

At kickoff, a temperature of roughly 30 degrees Fahrenheit is expected for gametime. It doesn't look like the elements will have much of an affect, however, as forecasts are calling for little wind and a zero percent of precipitation as of Monday evening.

The Bobcats are presently -2.5 road faves for the all-Ohio affair.

 

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RedHawks covering with ease despite dropping games
Stephen Campbell

The Miami (Ohio) RedHawks have not been a productive moneyline team this season (2-9 straight up) but they have provided some excellent spread value as of late.

The RedHawks are 4-1 against the spread heading into their Rivalry Week matchup against Ohio Tuesday.

Oddsmakers presently have the Bobcats as 2.5-point road faves for the contest.

 

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NCAAF

Tuesday's game

Ohio U won seven of last eight games with Miami, with underdogs 3-0 vs spread in last three. Bobcats won three of last four visits here, but in last visit, lost 23-20 (-7) in 2012. Miami is 2-9 this year but covered 4 of last 7 games; they've allowed 31+ points in eight of 11 games, are 1-1 as home underdogs this season. Ohio U needs this win to be bowl eligible; they've lost four of last six games, are 1-4 on road this year, are 2-1 as a favorite. Bobcats are 4-0 when they score 23+, 1-6 when they do not. Miami held only two of 11 opponents under 29 points.

 

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NCAAF

OHIO U (5 - 6) at MIAMI OHIO (2 - 9) - 11/25/2014, 7:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
OHIO U is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
OHIO U is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI OHIO is 35-54 ATS (-24.4 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI OHIO is 2-0 against the spread versus OHIO U over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI OHIO is 1-1 straight up against OHIO U over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

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NCAAF

Trends

OHIO vs. MIAMI (OHIO)
Ohio is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Ohio is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Miami (Ohio) is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Ohio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami (Ohio)'s last 5 games when playing Ohio

 

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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Post: 12:25 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 71 - Purse:$2400 - ALL AGES N/W $155 P/S LAST 6 OR P/S 2014 $3100 P/C L/S J DEVAUX 5 OVER 2


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 ART-TASTIC 5/2


# 3 TOPGUN RAIDER 3/1


# 4 KAA DEE ELMO 8/1

All signs point to ART-TASTIC for the pick. This gathering could very well be controlled by this gelding. A single look at the avgerage speed rating will verify that. With a 75 avg class statistic, this harness racer has one of the most solid class edges in the pack. Starters win from this position at Monticello Raceway with better than average regularity, suggesting this magnificent bet. TOPGUN RAIDER - Could very well provide us a victory based on good recent speed ratings - earning an average of 72. Enters this gathering with nice TrackMaster class numbers as compared to the group of horses - could be worth a shot. KAA DEE ELMO - Could dominate this pack, just look at the TrackMaster Speed Rating - 69 - from his last affair.

 

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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Rosecroft Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Post: 7:14 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 80 - Purse:$5200 - NW $2,500 LAST 5 STARTS OR $500 PER START IN 2014 AE: NW 4


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 6 YIPPI KI YEAH 2/1


# 8 RESTLESS NATIVE 3/1


# 1 LIKE A BOSS 4/1


YIPPI KI YEAH will not be denied the victory here. His 83 avg has this horse among the most favorable speed figs for this race. A good win percent has been achieved by nice horses coming from the 6 post. This contender and Hans have an excellent working relationship. In the money rate for this partnership is high. RESTLESS NATIVE - Could be the most competitive in the bunch here, showing respectable stats of late. Avg speed is a solid 84. This harness racer looks dangerous considering the high class figures. We wouldn't recommend tossing out of any exotics. LIKE A BOSS - 50 percent of the time this trainer and horse match end up in the money. Big players for this one. Going to post strongly, earned a very compelling TrackMaster Speed Rating in his last race (78).

 

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6500 Class Rating: 75

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES SINCE NOVEMBER 25. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 3 VALENTINE SHOES 2/1


# 6 SAINTED DANCER 7/2


# 2 PRINCESS BEAU K 10/1

I've got to go with VALENTINE SHOES. Displays the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 62 Equibase Speed Fig which is one of the most competitive in this field. This mare obviously likes the distance, going 5 for 19 in her races lately. Had one of the most respectable Equibase speed figs of this field in her last race. SAINTED DANCER - Pilares has a win percent of 21 over the last month. Has solid early pace and ought to fare admirably versus this group. PRINCESS BEAU K - The speed figure of 62 from her last affair looks very strong in here.

 

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17000 Class Rating: 79

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 2 MAJESTIC KAZ 8/5


# 4 SALEM WITCH 5/2


# 8 CHRISTMAS ANGEL 5/1

MAJESTIC KAZ is my choice. I like the jock on this filly - formidable chance to win the contest. Recorded a sound speed figure in the last race. Can run another good one in this race. Has quite good Equibase speed figs and has to be considered for a bet in this contest. SALEM WITCH - Will probably come out sharp - I have liked the way this filly has moved swiftly to the lead recently. CHRISTMAS ANGEL - This animal has some longshot handicapping angles going for her. The average Equibase class figure of 76 makes this one difficult to beat.

 

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mountaineer - Race #8 - Post: 9:34pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 GREEK TRICK (ML=6/1)
#10 SPANISH INVADER (ML=6/1)
#4 JEFF AND JOHN (ML=8/1)


GREEK TRICK - I'm anticipating this horse to run a strong race this time. SPANISH INVADER - This gelding is in first-rate physical condition right now. Finished third last time out and comes back rapidly. This jockey and handler's horses have been producing a beneficial ROI. Just see his most recent fig, 78. That one looks good in this field. The improved speed ratings over the last 3 races is strong. Thompson drops him in this affair ready to win. JEFF AND JOHN - The ROI when Pilares and Jacques hook up is tremendous. Pilares is reunited today with this animal after enjoying some pretty nice success riding in the past.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 MIST OPPORTUNITY (ML=3/1), #6 FATHER RIP (ML=5/1), #8 SWEET TALKIN FELLA (ML=6/1),

MIST OPPORTUNITY - This questionable contender has no victories at Mountaineer. Unlikely that the speed figure he notched on November 5th will be good enough in this race. FATHER RIP - Tough for anyone who saw this mount in his last affair to bet on him today. SWEET TALKIN FELLA - This horse likes to hit the board, but doesn't usually finish on top. Don't play in the top spot.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #7 GREEK TRICK to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,7,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [4,7,10] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Turf Paradise - Race #2 - Post: 1:21pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,700 Class Rating: 88

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 BONITA ROCK (ML=3/1)
#1 NO WALKIN' JOE (ML=5/2)


BONITA ROCK - It looks like Hernandez had to 'know' this gelding on November 1st when riding him for the first time. Back on again today. Have to like the early speed on this one. No one else may even be close. NO WALKIN' JOE - Evans must have known this gelding would run well at this track. Won his last race here on Nov 9th and now goes for two in a row. It looks like Lopez had to know this gelding on November 9th when riding him for the first time. Back on again today. This gelding is in fine form. Ended up first on November 9th. He has the top earnings per race. Give the once over to this animal. Look at this pattern of improvement. 68/73/79 are the last 3 Equibase speed figs.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 POKER DAVE (ML=2/1), #6 IRON FORTITUDE (ML=7/2), #2 ROSES FOR BEN (ML=8/1),

POKER DAVE - Hasn't been on the Turf Paradise oval in the last two to three weeks. Cause for some concern. IRON FORTITUDE - Awfully hard to play this pony when he hasn't been showing any gumption of late. ROSES FOR BEN - Difficult to wager on at 8/1 odds after the last two outings.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #5 BONITA ROCK on the nose if you can get odds of 3/2 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,5]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northfield: Tuesday 11/25 Analysis
By Ken Walters

DRF HARNESS

Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: HA HA (7th)

Spot Play: TIMER (3rd)


Race 1

(2) ACTION EAR TO EAR should be able to get away well from the post and has flashed some late speed from time to time. (7) SUZELLE HANOVER roared home in last to win going away. Moves out, steps up but can obviously be right there on best. (5) VICTORY CANDY MAN faces much weaker and looms a serious threat on that alone.

Race 2

(5) RULING V C N was nailed on the wire in last. Faces slightly weaker and this beaten favorite really has no excuses. (9) SAND HICKORY seeks third straight win at this level. They were his first two wins of the year. (1) TIELER BEA HOTSPUR draws the rail and can land a share. Has not excited much in recent days but should suck along for a mini payday.

Race 3

(9) TIMER has shown some early speed and some late speed. Last was a disaster but from here with speed inside, he should get away well and loom large in the lane. (1) MAILMAN BOB faces weaker, draws the rail but will still need a heads-up drive to get it done. (2) UPLAYTHEGAMETOWIN was righter in last until fading in the lane. Needs to stay flat for best.

Race 4

(1) NUTMEGS GIGLIO had the trip in last but tired. Beaten favorite gets the nod to atone. (4) CHEEKY FOOL had no shot in last from far back in the pack but picked off a few foes with good wide rally. Three back was long uncovered tough-trip third place finish. (5) SHANNONS BOY SCOURT was out a long way in last. Can get it done with a covered trip but has not found winning easy to figure out this year.

Race 5

(1) BROADWAY BOUND drops, draws the rail and should be hard to deny. (2) BALLYKEEL MIKE ships in and faces what seem to be weaker foes. (3) CINCINNATI MYSTRES will go well from inside and cannot be ignored.

Race 6

(1) NITEROI OAKS missed the boat in last so to speak lacking transportation. Seeks third straight and should give it a go from the pole. (2) S F SCORPION has the two hole and should stalk to the lane. (5) TYMAL BLING will rally late and could get lucky.

Race 7

(3) HA HA was unlucky in last but moves in. Should get a better trip and the last laugh! (1) GLISSANDO has speed and the rail. Ships in and has good record to date on the year. (8) RENATA wired the field in last. Has shown late speed in recent. Needs to overcome the post to find a seat on the rail. If she can do that she will threaten.

Race 8

(4) DETROITER seeks fourth straight. (5) FIXTHEDEFICIT was nailed on the wire in last. Will have to come from off the pace to beat the choice. (1) VODKAINDUCEDDREAMS has the rail and will be around to the final turn. Could get lucky if top two duel it out.

Race 9

(5) DRAGON RIDGE wired lesser from the pole in latest as the prohibitive favorite. Watch the board and see where it goes. Seems to be bet when he is going to try the front end. (6) DABUNKA was second best in down the road effort in last. Faces same and with some racing luck can make his presence felt. (1) TERROR OF THETRACK won last with late rally. Draws rail and can hardly get a bad trip.

Race 10

(2) K C COLT yielded, retook and jogged in last. (1) FOREVER GOOD brushed rallying the final turn in last and won impressively. (5) FIERCE DESIRE has been pounding on the door in recent. Had the lead and weakened, rallied gamely uncovered, rallied late off a covered trip. All to no avail. Will find the right formula soon.

Race 11

(1) UF FAST FEELIN left, tucked, broke in last but came back strongly. Missed from the rail two back but he gets the vote to take down the field. (5) MAKEMINE BLUEGRASS was a tough-trip game second best two back. Cannot ignore. He has been battling in all recent. (2) ROCKY MY BOY showed speed but failed three back. Will have to come from off the pace tonight but it will take an improved effort.

Race 12

(3) FORTUNE SAILOR won with strong rally. Steps up a bit but can win this with similar effort. (4) WEST RIVER VICTORY has been right there in all recent efforts and looms as the main threat. (5) COLBY D has some late speed and that is what it takes to best the rest.

Race 13

(7) PAPER LUCK gets the worst of in post position draw but has been well bet last two. (2) LIMA RITCH moves in off last. It was a poor effort and if you skip past it there are some credible performances. (1) TRESNER SEELSTER has the rail and fits well from post one.

Race 14

(5) ABSOLUTE PURITY came uncovered to the third panel, challenged, took the lead and held well in last. Faces similar. (8) ITSALLABOUTTONIGHT has rallied late in all recent races and gets a long look despite the post. (4) SLOT ARTIST has seen nothing but wet tracks in recent days and has flashed late speed last two outs.

Race 15

(4) ARTISTIC DREAMER has early speed and can carry the day with late close. (2) JP ORAZIO flashed late speed in last and slight improvement makes him a threat. (3) HES A BEACHBOY faces weaker looking for payday.

 

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SPOT PLAYS

For Tuesday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Delta Downs (6th) Pontchartrain, 3-1
(7th) Excitable Girl, 4-1


Finger Lakes (2nd) Fancy Pancy, 3-1
(5th) Readygetsgold, 7-2


Mahoning Valley (1st) Trinity Revealed, 4-1
(6th) Canalasso, 8-1


Mountaineer (2nd) Gotta Runaway, 7-2
(8th) Spanish Invader, 6-1


Parx Racing (1st) Rose Buzz, 4-1
(6th) Red Dirt Racer, 6-1


Turf Paradise (5th) Skye Memo, 6-1
(7th) Detention, 7-2

 

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#1 Sports

Tuesday's free selection: Pennsylvania Quakers + 14

 

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Razor Sharp

FREE PICK FOR TUESDAY:Take SOUTH FLORIDA -4 over Hofstra

 

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Totals4U

Tuesday's Free Selection: Virginia Tech Hokies + 10

 

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Golden Dragon Sports

Bonus Play: Temple -14

 

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Huddle Up Sports

Free Winner: Air Force +16 College BB

 

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The Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Tuesday: Take SACRAMENTO +3½ over New Orleans

 

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John Anthony Sports

Tuesday's Free Selection: Loyola-Chicago - 1