NCAAF Opening Line Report: Mississippi State live dogs vs. Alabama
By COLIN KELLY
So will the No. 1 team in the Southeastern Conference – which also happens to be the No. 1 team in all the land – finally succumb, as all its SEC brethren have so far this season? That’s the big question for Week 12 in college football, with Mississippi State traveling to face fourth-ranked Alabama in a matchup with major implications for the first-ever four team playoff at season’s end.
The Bulldogs (9-0 SU, 5-4 ATS) have already fended off challenges from Louisiana State, Texas A&M and Auburn – dispatching all three in a row while covering all three games. This past weekend, Mississippi State ostensibly had a bye, wiping out FCS squad Tennessee Martin 45-16 while failing to cash as a 45-point home chalk.
The Crimson Tide (8-1 SU, 3-6 ATS) come in off a big win, besting Louisiana State 20-13 in overtime to narrowly cover as a 6.5-point road favorite. Still, the Tide are among the worst spread-covering teams in the nation.
“After a physical and emotional win at LSU, will the Tide have anything left in the tank for another bruiser?” said John Lester. “It’s a great matchup between a special Mississippi State ground attack and a sound ‘Bama run defense. The Bulldogs have basically been preparing for two weeks, and I think they are a very live dog here.”
Auburn Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5)
Auburn likely flushed its playoff hopes down the drain with its 41-38 home loss to Texas A&M – a game in which the Tigers were favored by 23.5 points. Auburn dropped to 7-2 SU and 4-5 ATS with its second setback in the last three weeks.
And if misery loves company, say hello to Georgia (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS), which inexplicably lost to 11.5-point underdog Florida two weekends ago to blow its playoff hopes. The Bulldogs bounced back to drub Kentucky 63-31 as a 10-point road chalk Saturday.
“I’m not so sure Auburn can regroup quickly enough from the way that upset went down,” Lester said. “They came out in ‘show up and win’ mode and have to be mentally deflated right now. Georgia played like a team with no pressure on its shoulders against Kentucky. The Bulldogs get running back Todd Gurley back, and they deserve to be chalk in Athens.”
Florida State Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes (+2)
Defending national champion Florida State hasn’t lost a game outright in nearly two years, last falling 37-26 laying 7 points at home against Florida on Nov. 24, 2012. The Seminoles (9-0 SU) kept it going with a 34-20 win over Virginia, but came up short as 21-point faves to fall to 2-7 ATS – tied with a batch of teams for the second-worst spread-covering mark in the country.
Miami (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS), coming off a bye week, has heated up lately with a 4-1 SU and ATS surge, winning and cashing the last three in a row in blowout fashion. The Hurricanes ripped North Carolina 47-20 on Nov. 1 as a 16.5-point home favorite.
“Another week, another sleep-walk performance by the defending champs,” Lester said, noting Florida State trailed Virginia 13-7 at the end of the first quarter. “They can’t afford to fall in another hole against the Hurricanes. It’s going to catch up with them sooner or later. We expect to get sharp support on Miami, while most of the public will be on the ‘Noles.”
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Wisconsin Badgers (-6.5)
Nebraska (8-1 SU, 6-2-1 ATS) is flying under the radar in the Big 10, but could end up competing for the conference title. The Huskers head to Madison with an extra week of rest after a bye, following their 35-14 home win over Purdue to push as a 21-point chalk.
Wisconsin (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) has won four in row SU and three in a row ATS, and is also coming off a win over Purdue, rolling the host Boilermakers 34-16 on Saturday while giving 16.5 points.
“The winner is likely to represent the West in the conference championship game, so in theory, a great chance to get into the (national championship) playoff is on the line,” Lester said. “I don’t ever feel like you can trust the Cornhuskers to show up and win these big games. But it looks like they’ll have (running back) Ameer Abdullah available after the bye week, and he makes a huge difference.
“The fantastic home-field advantage Madison provides made the Badgers favorites.”
By COLIN KELLY
So will the No. 1 team in the Southeastern Conference – which also happens to be the No. 1 team in all the land – finally succumb, as all its SEC brethren have so far this season? That’s the big question for Week 12 in college football, with Mississippi State traveling to face fourth-ranked Alabama in a matchup with major implications for the first-ever four team playoff at season’s end.
The Bulldogs (9-0 SU, 5-4 ATS) have already fended off challenges from Louisiana State, Texas A&M and Auburn – dispatching all three in a row while covering all three games. This past weekend, Mississippi State ostensibly had a bye, wiping out FCS squad Tennessee Martin 45-16 while failing to cash as a 45-point home chalk.
The Crimson Tide (8-1 SU, 3-6 ATS) come in off a big win, besting Louisiana State 20-13 in overtime to narrowly cover as a 6.5-point road favorite. Still, the Tide are among the worst spread-covering teams in the nation.
“After a physical and emotional win at LSU, will the Tide have anything left in the tank for another bruiser?” said John Lester. “It’s a great matchup between a special Mississippi State ground attack and a sound ‘Bama run defense. The Bulldogs have basically been preparing for two weeks, and I think they are a very live dog here.”
Auburn Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5)
Auburn likely flushed its playoff hopes down the drain with its 41-38 home loss to Texas A&M – a game in which the Tigers were favored by 23.5 points. Auburn dropped to 7-2 SU and 4-5 ATS with its second setback in the last three weeks.
And if misery loves company, say hello to Georgia (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS), which inexplicably lost to 11.5-point underdog Florida two weekends ago to blow its playoff hopes. The Bulldogs bounced back to drub Kentucky 63-31 as a 10-point road chalk Saturday.
“I’m not so sure Auburn can regroup quickly enough from the way that upset went down,” Lester said. “They came out in ‘show up and win’ mode and have to be mentally deflated right now. Georgia played like a team with no pressure on its shoulders against Kentucky. The Bulldogs get running back Todd Gurley back, and they deserve to be chalk in Athens.”
Florida State Seminoles at Miami Hurricanes (+2)
Defending national champion Florida State hasn’t lost a game outright in nearly two years, last falling 37-26 laying 7 points at home against Florida on Nov. 24, 2012. The Seminoles (9-0 SU) kept it going with a 34-20 win over Virginia, but came up short as 21-point faves to fall to 2-7 ATS – tied with a batch of teams for the second-worst spread-covering mark in the country.
Miami (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS), coming off a bye week, has heated up lately with a 4-1 SU and ATS surge, winning and cashing the last three in a row in blowout fashion. The Hurricanes ripped North Carolina 47-20 on Nov. 1 as a 16.5-point home favorite.
“Another week, another sleep-walk performance by the defending champs,” Lester said, noting Florida State trailed Virginia 13-7 at the end of the first quarter. “They can’t afford to fall in another hole against the Hurricanes. It’s going to catch up with them sooner or later. We expect to get sharp support on Miami, while most of the public will be on the ‘Noles.”
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Wisconsin Badgers (-6.5)
Nebraska (8-1 SU, 6-2-1 ATS) is flying under the radar in the Big 10, but could end up competing for the conference title. The Huskers head to Madison with an extra week of rest after a bye, following their 35-14 home win over Purdue to push as a 21-point chalk.
Wisconsin (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) has won four in row SU and three in a row ATS, and is also coming off a win over Purdue, rolling the host Boilermakers 34-16 on Saturday while giving 16.5 points.
“The winner is likely to represent the West in the conference championship game, so in theory, a great chance to get into the (national championship) playoff is on the line,” Lester said. “I don’t ever feel like you can trust the Cornhuskers to show up and win these big games. But it looks like they’ll have (running back) Ameer Abdullah available after the bye week, and he makes a huge difference.
“The fantastic home-field advantage Madison provides made the Badgers favorites.”
