Tuesday 11/1/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Tuesday’s games

Bowling Green-Northern Illinois met in last three MAC title games; not this year. Falcons lost last six games, allowing 43 pts/game; they’re 2-2 as road underdog this year, are 25-15 over last 11 years. Bowling Green lost its two MAC road games this year by 6-7 points, allowing 433 rushing yards in last two games. Huskies are 2-2 in MAC with average total of 61 in those games; NIU is 5-2 in last seven games as a home favorite. NIU won four of last six series games; favorites covered three of last four series games. Falcons lost last three visits here, by 3-17-9 points. MAC home favorites are 3-13 vs spread this season.

Western Michigan is 8-0 with wins over two Big 14 teams (NW, Illinois); they’re 5-2 vs spread this year, have scored 45 pts/game in its four MAC wins this year. WMU is 10-6 in lat 16 games as a road favorite, 3-0 this year. Broncos outgained Ball State 711-182 in 54-7 win LY; favorites are 3-1 vs spread in last four series games. Cardinals are 1-3 in MAC this season, losing games by 7-3-10 points- they allowed 1,182 TY, 66 points in losing last two home games. In last 11 years, Ball State is 6-12-1 as a home underdog; they covered both games as an underdog this season- Cardinals are 20-13 vs spread as an underdog the last six years.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free NBA Picks: Tuesday, Nov. 1, 2016, Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

With the Kings visiting the Heat on Tuesday, it's a good time to talk about a rumored trade between the teams. Sacramento has been looking for its first top-flight point guard since Mike Bibby, it seems. Miami is probably going to be a lottery team this season and mortgaged the future at the February 2015 trade deadline by getting point guard Goran Dragic from Phoenix. With Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh now gone, there's really no reason for the Heat to keep Dragic around. Reportedly, Pat Riley would like to deal him for a potential draft pick and to shed salary. The Kings and Heat have discussed a deal where the Kings would get Dragic and send Rudy Gay and currently suspended Darren Collison to south Florida. The value there for the Heat is that Gay and Collison are in the last year of their contracts and thus Miami could be a huge player next summer in free agency. Including this season, Dragic has three guaranteed years remaining on his deal for a total of $51 million. The Kings want to dump Gay because he already has said he's opting out and there's no chance of returning next year.

Magic at 76ers (+4.5, 201)

Orlando has really struggled under new Coach Frank Vogel as the Magic have allowed at least 105 points in each of their three losses and not scored triple digits yet. They were in Cleveland on Saturday and lost 105-99. Philly laid an egg Saturday in losing 104-72 at home to the Hawks. Maybe all the improvement shown in Wednesday's close loss to the Thunder was a mirage. Joel Embiid was limited to just 15 minutes vs. Atlanta but should be closer to 20 here assuming no foul trouble. These teams split last season.

Key trends: The road team is 5-1 against the spread in the past six meetings. The "over/under" has gone under in eight of the past 11 meetings in Philly.

Early lean: Magic and under.

Rockets at Cavaliers (-8.5, 218)

First of an NBA TV doubleheader. Houston completed a home-and-home sweep of Dallas with a 93-92 win Sunday thanks to James Harden's winning free throw with 0.1 seconds left. Harden led Houston with 28 points, seven rebounds and seven assists. He did roll his ankle near the end of the game but said he wasn't worried about it. Cleveland improved to 3-0 with a 105-99 home win over Orlando on Saturday. The Cavs nearly blew a 22-point third-quarter lead in beating the Magic for the 15th straight time. Houston and Cleveland split last year.

Key trends: The Rockets are 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings. The under is 5-2 in the past seven.

Early lean: Cavs and over.

Lakers at Pacers (-9, 213)

Los Angeles fell 113-96 in Oklahoma City on Sunday. The Lakers couldn't stop Russell Westbrook and hit just 7-for-32 from long range. What's interesting about this game is I know for a fact the Lakers covet Pacers star Paul George. Doubt the Pacers trade him barring an overwhelming offer. They lost 118-101 in Chicago on Saturday in the second of a back-to-back. The game wasn't that close. George had 20 points. Rodney Stuckey (right hamstring) sat out and was to have an MRI on Monday. Indiana won two very close meetings against L.A. in 2015-16.

Key trends: The home team has covered three of the past five meetings. The over is 7-1 in the past eight at Indiana.

Early lean: Lakers and over.

Kings at Heat (-3.5, 198)

Second of a back-to-back for Sacramento, which was in Atlanta on Monday. Miami dropped a second straight Sunday, 106-99 to San Antonio. The Heat did rally from a 16-point hole to briefly lead in the fourth quarter. Hassan Whiteside had 27 points (tying career high) and added 15 rebounds. The Heat remain without Josh Richardson (knee). Miami won two high-scoring games vs. Sacramento last year.

Key trends: The Kings are 3-11 ATS in their past 14 in Miami. The over is 9-1 in the past 10 meetings.

Early lean: Heat and over.

Knicks at Pistons (-3.5, 197)

New York beat Memphis 111-104 in the Knicks' home opener Saturday. Joakim Noah looked as good as he has in a few years with six points, 10 rebounds and seven assists. Kristaps Porzingis scored 21 points and Carmelo Anthony had 20. Detroit won a second straight Sunday, 93-83 over Milwaukee. Andre Drummond had 20 points and 23 rebounds, his 10th career 20/20 game. New York won two of three in this series last season.

Key trends: The favorite is 13-4 ATS in the past 17 meetings. The under is 11-5 in the past 16 in Detroit.

Early lean: Pistons and under.

Bucks at Pelicans (-2.5, 204)

Milwaukee lost 98-83 in Detroit on Sunday in the Bucks' first road game. They finished with season lows in rebounds (40) and defensive rebounds (30) as Drummond dominated the boards. New Orleans fell to 0-3 with a 98-79 loss in San Antonio on Saturday in the second of a back-to-back. Anthony Davis was held to 18 points after scoring 50 and 45 points in the season's first two games. These teams split in 2015-16.

Key trends: The Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their past six in New Orleans. The under is 4-1 in the Pelicans' past five vs. the East.

Early lean: Pelicans and under.

Grizzlies at Timberwolves (-5, 201)

Memphis beat Washington 112-103 in overtime Sunday. Marc Gasol had 20 points, including eight in OT. He also tied it on a 3-pointer 15.7 seconds to go in regulation. Gasol's four 3-pointers made were a career high. Mike Conley added 24 points and 11 assists. Minnesota is looking for its first win at 0-2. The Wolves opened the season with a 102-98 loss in Memphis. Then they lost 106-103 in Sacramento on Saturday. Minnesota led the Kings by as many as 18. This then is the Wolves' home opener.

Key trends: The home team is 5-2 ATS in the previous seven meetings. The over is 6-0 in the past six.

Early lean: Wolves and over.

Jazz at Spurs (-11.5, 189.5)

Utah lost 88-75 at the Clippers on Sunday. Utah's offense badly misses the injured Gordon Hayward. Only one Jazz starter reached double-figure points in that loss. San Antonio improved to 4-0 with a 106-99 victory. Kawhi Leonard has been stellar in the early going and scored 14 of his 27 points in the final 6:04 of the game vs. the Heat, including the last 12 for the Spurs. Coach Gregg Popovich is already in form as he gave LaMarcus Aldridge the night off in the second of a back-to-back. The Spurs were 4-0 vs. the Jazz last year and Utah scored more than 86 points in just one of those.

Key trends: The Jazz are 2-12 ATS in their past 14 vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 7-1 in San Antonio's past eight at home.

Early lean: Spurs and under.

Warriors at Trail Blazers (+7, 226.5)

Second NBA TV game. Golden State is 2-1 but hasn't looked anywhere close to dominant. The Warriors won only 106-100 at a bad Phoenix team on Sunday. Kevin Durant and Steph Curry combined for 65 points. Golden State committed 16 turnovers, leading to 25 Phoenix points. Portland won 115-113 in OT in Denver on Saturday. Damian Lillard scored 37 points, including the go-ahead floater with less than a second remaining in OT. Lillard had tied the game on a runner in regulation with 2.1 seconds remaining. Portland big man Festus Ezeli sat out with a left knee issue. Playoff rematch as the Warriors took out the Blazers in five games in the West semifinals in May. The Warriors won three of their four regular-season games against the Trail Blazers as well. Portland has won only two of the past seven meetings at home during the regular season.

Key trends: The home team is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings. The over is 5-0 in the past five meetings in Portland.

Early lean: Blazers and over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview and Prediction: Bowling Green Falcons (1-7; 2-6 ATS; 4-4 O/U) at Northern Illinois Huskies (2-6; 3-5 ATS; 5-3 O/U)
By Randy Chambers
Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 8:00 pm (Huskie Stadium)
The Line: NIU Huskies -17 -- Over/Under:
TV: ESPNU

The Bowling Green Falcons and Northern Illinois Huskies meet Tuesday night in MAC college football action at the Huskie Stadium on ESPNU.

The Bowling Green Falcons look for a feel good road victory that would snap a six-game losing streak. The Bowling Green Falcons are 0-4 on the road this season. James Morgan is completing 58.5 percent of his passes for 1,430 yards, 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Morgan and James Knapke have combined for 14 touchdown passes this season. Scott Miller and Ronnie Moore have combined for 1,139 receiving yards and nine touchdowns while Teo Redding has 23 receptions. The Bowling Green Falcons ground game is averaging 137 yards per contest, and Fred Coppet leads the way with 604 yards and three touchdowns. Defensively, Bowling Green is allowing 45.1 points and 507.9 yards per game. Trenton Greene leads the Bowling Green Falcons with 74 tackles, Gus Schwieterman has eight sacks and Brandon Harris has two interceptions.

The Northern Illinois Huskies look for back-to-back wins for the first time this season in their last home game. The Northern Illinois Huskies need to win out in order to become bowl eligible. Anthony Maddie is completing 58.3 percent of his passes for 1,028 yards, eight touchdowns and five interceptions. Maddie and Ryan Graham have combined for 15 touchdown passes this season. Kenny Golladay and Christian Blake have combined for 1,162 receiving yards and eight touchdowns while Aregeros Turner has 28 receptions. The Northern Illinois Huskies ground game is averaging 229.7 yards per contest, and Joel Bouagnon leads the way with 510 yards and one touchdown. Defensively, Northern Illinois is allowing 33.5 points and 477.3 yards per game. Sean Folliard leads the Northern Illinois Huskies with 59 tackles, Ladell Fleming has three sacks and Trequan Smith has two interceptions.

The Falcons are 41-20-2 ATS in their last 63 road games and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall. The Huskies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Neither one of these teams is playing good football and neither have won games, so laying this many points doesn't make sense to me from a value point. Also, the Bowling Green Falcons beat the Northern Illinois Huskies by 20 points last season. This is probably a game to stay away from but if forced to pick, I'd take my chances with the free points.

RANDY'S PICK
Bowling Green Falcons +17

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Western Michigan Broncos (8-0) at Ball State Cardinals (4-4)
By Randy Chambers
Tuesday, November 1, 2016 at 8:00 pm (Scheumann Stadium)
The Line: Ball State Cardinals +16 -- Over/Under:
TV: ESPN2

The Western Michigan Broncos and Ball State Cardinals meet in a MAC college football game Tuesday night at Scheumann Stadium on ESPN2.

The Western Michigan Broncos look for their fifth road victory of the year to remain undefeated on the season overall. The Western Michigan Broncos have a shot to win 11 straight games dating back to last season. Zach Terrell is completing 72.2 percent of his passes for 1,995 yards, 20 touchdowns and one interception. Terrell has two or more touchdown passes in five straight games. Corey Davis and Carrington Thompson have combined for 1,203 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns while Michael Henry has 40 receptions. The Western Michigan Broncos ground game is averaging 252.7 yards per contest, and Jarvion Franklin leads the way with 909 yards and seven touchdowns. Defensively, Western Michigan is allowing 19.3 points and 353 yards per game. Robert Spillane leads the Western Michigan Broncos with 71 tackles, Keion Adams has 5.5 sacks and Justin Ferguson has two interceptions.

The Ball State Cardinals look for a strong home victory to get a game above a .500 record and remain in the college football bowl hunt. The Ball State Cardinals look for their first win over a ranked team since their 2012 win over the Toledo Rockets. Riley Neal is completing 60.2 percent of his passes for 1,700 yards, seven touchdowns and nine interceptions. Neal has just two touchdown passes in his last four games. KeVonn Mabon and Damon Hazelton Jr. have combined for 862 receiving yards and two touchdowns while Corey Lacanaria has 19 receptions. The Ball State Cardinals ground game is averaging 226.6 yards per contest, and James Gilbert leads the way with 987 yards and 11 touchdowns. Defensively, Ball State is allowing 25.4 points and 440.3 yards per game. Sean Wiggins leads the Ball State Cardinals with 69 tackles, Anthony Winbush has six sacks and Marc Walton has two interceptions.

The Broncos are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games and 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games overall. The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in November and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games. The road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings and the over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Ball State.

I don't like eating big chalk in the middle of the week with a road team, but the Western Michigan Broncos are the real deal. Western Michigan is probably the best team in the country outside of a power five conference. Ball State isn't a bad football team, but I'm not sure the Cardinals can hang in this game for 60 minutes. Western Michigan is good enough to win this game in a blowout and cover yet another road game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Tuesday’s games

Bowling Green-Northern Illinois met in last three MAC title games; not this year. Falcons lost last six games, allowing 43 pts/game; they’re 2-2 as road underdog this year, are 25-15 over last 11 years. Bowling Green lost its two MAC road games this year by 6-7 points, allowing 433 rushing yards in last two games. Huskies are 2-2 in MAC with average total of 61 in those games; NIU is 5-2 in last seven games as a home favorite. NIU won four of last six series games; favorites covered three of last four series games. Falcons lost last three visits here, by 3-17-9 points. MAC home favorites are 3-13 vs spread this season.

Western Michigan is 8-0 with wins over two Big 14 teams (NW, Illinois); they’re 5-2 vs spread this year, have scored 45 pts/game in its four MAC wins this year. WMU is 10-6 in lat 16 games as a road favorite, 3-0 this year. Broncos outgained Ball State 711-182 in 54-7 win LY; favorites are 3-1 vs spread in last four series games. Cardinals are 1-3 in MAC this season, losing games by 7-3-10 points- they allowed 1,182 TY, 66 points in losing last two home games. In last 11 years, Ball State is 6-12-1 as a home underdog; they covered both games as an underdog this season- Cardinals are 20-13 vs spread as an underdog the last six years.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Post: 12:25 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 74 - Purse:$2700 - NW $225 P/S L/5 OR P/S IN 2016 $4800 P/C L/S AE: $4000 CLM W/A AE: N/W 4 PM LT
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 2 SHOWING OFF 9/2
# 5 WHATA HUSTLER 5/2
# 3 STORMONT LANCELOT 5/1

After thorough analysis by the wagering panel, SHOWING OFF comes out as the top contender. His 75 avg has this gelding among the strongest TrackMaster Speed Ratings in this one. Has a strong shot in this event, if he can perform to his back racing class. Considered a solid wager based solely on his high win figure. WHATA HUSTLER - Many top players will recognize the exemplary TrackMaster Speed Rating in the last gathering. Stacks up against any horse in this field of horses. The trainer Lappe has a way with this gelding, regularly cashing in their races. STORMONT LANCELOT - Composite pace figures say this competition should shape up nicely for this gelding. Looking for a big effort. This horse has a nose for the wire, just look at his better than average win percentage.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Post: 1:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 83 - Purse:$10500 - F& M NON-WINNERS OF $7,500 IN LAST 5 STARTS WINNERS OVER $47,500 IN 2016 NOT ELIGIBLE. AE. OPTIONAL CLAIMING ALLOWANCE $15,000 AE. OPTIONAL CLAIMING ALLOWANCE $12,500 DRAWN INSIDE #5 CLARA BEA IS SCRATCHED JUDGES.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 3 GINGER TREE ALEXIS 2/1
# 5 CLARA BEA N/A
# 1 JOKES JET 12/1

GINGER TREE ALEXIS has a competitive shot to take this race. Might be there at a decent price tag. Very likely one to keep in your exotics. Running very well, recorded a bang-up TrackMaster Speed Rating in her last competition (78). This standardbred will have to be a wager, based on the very good driver/handler win stat. CLARA BEA - Should be in the hunt again this time, looking to add to that already high lifetime winning percentage. This solid standardbred looks tough considering the high class numbers. Don't throw out of any exotics. JOKES JET - Pace makes the race is a favorite saying of this knowledge group. Pace stats here point to a very strong play.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Portland Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $5400 Class Rating: 78

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,200.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 9 MR. TENACIOUS 5/2

# 8 WORK WITH ME 7/2

# 10 UNCORK IT 6/1

MR. TENACIOUS looks to be the bet in here. Is a solid contender based on figs posted as of late under today's conditions. Matias has been scorching the last month, winning at a nifty 21 percent rate. Must be given a shot - I like the figs from the last outing. WORK WITH ME - Will almost certainly go to the lead and should never look back. Shows formidable Equibase Speed Figs on average overall when measured up against the rest of this field. UNCORK IT - This gelding obviously likes the distance, going 1 for 5 in his races as of late. It's a good signal that Fergason is using Rosales on this horse.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8100 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON THREE RACES SINCE NOVEMBER 1. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 9 DRAGO'S BEST 5/2

# 3 MISTERBULLTOYOU 12/1

# 8 PROPER TOUCH 7/2

DRAGO'S BEST looks like the bet in here. Could best this field here, showing very strong figures of late. Always good to invest in a handler with this kind of competitive win percentage - 17 percent - at this distance & surface. Yaranga will probably be able to get this gelding to break out quickly for this event. MISTERBULLTOYOU - Puhl has well above average gains at this distance/surface. Should definitely be carefully examined in this event if only for the very good speed rating garnered in the last contest. PROPER TOUCH - Has solid Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of horses in this race - worth a look. Has to be given a chance versus this field displaying formidable figs as of late and an average speed figure of 78 under similar conditions.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Tuesday 11/1 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF

MEET STATS: 0 - 0 / $0.00

Best Bet: SOUTHERN CROSS (10th)

Spot Play: RANCOUSY (6th)


Race 1

(3) GINGER TREE ALEXIS is now in the high percentage Tom Milici barn. Four-year-old mare has proven to be fast in the past and can tap into that ability. (7) NEW YORK KITTY steps up to face better foes here, but is plenty sharp and gets helped by the scratch of #5 so she can move in a spot on the gate. (1) JOKES JET won at first asking on the barn and venue change; certainly capable.

Race 2

(1) FANCY DESIRE went down the road in this class on Friday and gets a free ride again because she dropped in before the win. (2) AMERICAN ALIVE should be able to follow the top pick away and receive a comfy pocket trip. (6) SUMMER SNOW also comes off a win at this level. Classy veteran is always capable but often inconsistent.

Race 3

(5) DREAMLANDS ART has been racing evenly versus better foes and finally gets much needed class relief. I don’t love his form, but he has plenty of back class to tap into. (7) KIWI IDEAL N gets to drop down off a win; clear contender despite outside post. (2) FRANCOHARRINGTON N dropped to this level a week ago but was stuck outside. Starting from post two this week could make a big difference.

Race 4

(3) FLEM N EM N won in this class last week to boost his career earnings over $750K. Eleven-year-old has lost a step or two but should be able to dig down deep for a second straight score. (2) COOPER COAST A gets an interesting trainer change to Richard Banca considering ownership seems to remain intact; eligible to improve. (5) GOOD DAY MATE hasn’t been able to win very often but should get into the number somewhere.

Race 5

(2) CLASSIC AMERICAN N closed well in his North American debut and now gets a hint of class relief in start two. I wouldn’t say this is an easy spot, but he should fit nicely. (3) IDEAL FASHION picked up a win for a $20K tag last week and strangely drops into a lower conditioned event; obvious player. (7) LETTUCERIPRITA A has been in some difficult spots out of town and wouldn’t be a complete shock in this spot.

Race 6

(1) RANCOUSY raced evenly from the back of the pack in his first start since the beginning of June. Starting from the inside this week, I’m expecting to see early speed and a much better performance. (5) ILIKETHEMTRASHY beat lesser three starts back and was rewarded with two outside posts in this class. Moving in a few spots on the gate could lead to better results today. (6) YIPPITY HANOVER is certainly down in class and has won over the track in the past.

Race 7

(5) STONEBRIDGE COMBAT has been up against it facing older foes in recent starts. Sophomore gets in against a group closer to his age and could take them down the road. (1) MADMAN HALL has finished second or third in half of his 30 starts this year and should be sitting in close attendance starting from post one. (6) TRIUMPHANT’S CHIP raced okay in his debut for this barn; improvement very possible. (9) DOUBLEDAY qualified okay in his first start since August; big driver change.

Race 8

(9) GLOBAL REVOLUTION has morphed into a new horse since adding Lasix; riding the wave here. (4) ZETTE STARLET is another on a roll of late and with her early speed she could be controlling the race; must use. (5) TIGHT LINES has been doing good work in minor stakes. He should bring his usual honest effort to the track.

Race 9

(3) DRAZZMATAZZ finds an extremely soft spot this week and gets a big driver change to Scott Zeron. (1) PERFECRT ROAD was done in by an early mistake last time and can makes amends. (8) CANDY LANE put in an improved effort last time and might be ready to turn a corner.

Race 10

(2) SOUTHERN CROSS blasted down the road as the heavy chalk in his last appearance here at this level; huge class relief. (4) EMERALD CHIP comes off an improved try in his second start for this barn. Trainer sent out an impressive winner here Sunday. (3) WINDSONG LUXURY has been chasing nicely of late and should get into the exotics somewhere.

Race 11

(8) ILL HAVE ANOTHER has posted two even efforts from outside posts since moving into the Melander barn. Three-year-old is stuck with a bad draw again but faces a blank field and might just be able to overcome. (2) TOUGH GET GOING flashed speed and weakened late last time. He is probably the horse to beat. (7) MANHATTAN AS qualified back well enough; huge player in this spot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Liberal use of bullpen stars works for both Series teams
By Bucky Dent, The Sports Xchange

CHICAGO -- By utilizing Andrew Miller in a less traditional manner than most dominant relievers are employed, Cleveland Indians manager Terry Francona has his team in position to win its first World Series championship since 1948.
Chicago Cubs skipper Joe Maddon has never been afraid to venture outside the "book rules" of managing either, and his bold usage of closer Aroldis Chapman on Sunday night might have kept alive Chicago's hopes of ending its 108-year World Series title drought.
Chapman pitched a career-high 2 2/3 innings for the save, the longest outing of his career and one that might have reminded old-timers of Rollie Fingers or Bruce Sutter in their prime. Chapman retired eight of the 10 men he faced, fanning four, to end the Cubs' 3-2 win that pulled them within 3-2 of Cleveland and forced the series back to Progressive Field on Tuesday night.
"That was a big ask, and it was impressive," Francona said of Chapman's first World Series save. "It was like what Andrew's done for us."
Miller made no contribution in this one, Chicago keeping him out of action as it touched Trevor Bauer for three fourth-inning runs for a lead that held up for the chilly night's remainder. The Cleveland relievers did their part by tossing four scoreless innings after Bauer's departure, but they never got in position to dictate the game the way they have during most of October.
Credit Cubs pitching for that. Jon Lester worked six effective innings, Carl Edwards Jr. got the first out of the seventh after Mike Napoli stroked a leadoff single, and Chapman sauntered in from the bullpen for the rest.
Maddon said he talked with Chapman before the game to inform him of a potentially expanded role.
"You can't really do it during the regular season because you don't want to beat guys up," Maddon said. "Tonight, we had it all in play. He's kind of fresh, he hasn't been overused."
Chapman logged just one inning in the first four games, wrapping up a 5-1 triumph in Game 2 on Wednesday night. He more than made up for his relative inactivity in this stint, throwing 42 pitches, 26 for strikes.
Cleveland had chances late.
In the seventh, the Napoli single, a passed ball and a hit batter put runners at first and second for Roberto Perez, who bounced out to second baseman Javier Baez for the third out.
Chapman caused his own problems in the eighth, forgetting to cover first on Rajai Davis' hot shot down the first base line that Anthony Rizzo gloved and had to eat. Davis stole second and third, but Jason Kipnis fouled out and Francisco Lindor looked at strike three.
"You know, it wasn't like we were going to sack the bats up if we didn't score in the eighth," Francona said. "But Chapman was impressive. He gets behind 3-0 and then throws a get-me-over strike at 99. Nobody runs to the bat rack when Chapman comes in."
Not too many are eager to Miller either, with the possible exception of Dexter Fowler, who homered off the lefty in the eighth inning Saturday during the Indians' 7-2 win. Miller was MVP of the American League Championship Series and could garner some votes for World Series MVP if Cleveland wins.
Because of Miller's durability and the nature of postseason play, when teams almost never play more than three days in a row, Francona has enjoyed the luxury of employing the veteran as early as the fifth inning. Miller's excellence, along with the steady presence of closer Cody Allen, basically gives opponents 12 to 15 outs to do business before Francona goes to the whip.
"It's really not rocket science," Francona said. "When you have good players, you let them play. That's part of it. Sometimes, it's getting out of the way."
Which is what Maddon did once Chapman took the mound. Given a decision between pinch-hitting for Chapman in the eighth inning with Kyle Schwarber, Maddon opted to eat the sure strikeout from Chapman so that his closer could go back out for another inning.
In the ninth, Napoli grounded out to short, and then Carlos Santana flied out to right. And when Jose Ramirez fanned, Chapman had the save that saved his team's season.
Now Maddon can ink Schwarber into the lineup for the series' remainder in Cleveland, where the designated hitter is in effect. Maddon managed under DH rules for eight years with the Tampa Bay rays and really didn't like it, but he is grateful for it now.
"It adds length and depth to our lineup," he said of Schwarber's presence. "We get to play the next two games with rested starters ... I've been waiting to play the seventh game of the World Series my whole life."
If Maddon and the Cubs can force that seventh game, they might look to the other dugout as the inspiration for the move that helped them reach Game 6.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mountaineer Park - Race #3 - Post: 7:44pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,100 Class Rating: 61

Rating:

#1 AMANDA MARIE (ML=5/2)
#7 BEAR'S AND BELLE'S (ML=8/1)


AMANDA MARIE - Parker and Clouston perform well when they join forces. Tough to top a win percent of 37. Note that although this filly finished in the place spot in her last race, she was well in front of the third place horse. This is a classic positive angle. The 61 latest race speed fig looks sound in black and white. BEAR'S AND BELLE'S - This filly finished well ahead of the show horse on October 17th. Those horses tend to run well next time out. Sipp brings her back again. I recommend you stick with this hot filly.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 MISS SAMMY (ML=2/1), #2 SPOOFY DOO (ML=3/1), #5 LA INDIA ANACAONA (ML=5/1),

MISS SAMMY - I'd like to see more hospitable recent efforts with morning line odds of 2/1. No good fortune for this mount in a short distance contest over the last couple of months tells me that this filly is in a thorny spot SPOOFY DOO - If she goes off at the M/L odds of 3/1, I'll have to pass. LA INDIA ANACAONA - No triumphs for this pony at Mountaineer Park. This entrant likes to be on the board, but doesn't usually finish first. Don't put in the top spot.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #1 AMANDA MARIE to win if you can get odds of 7/5 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [1,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #3 - Post: 1:40pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,400 Class Rating: 65

Rating:

#11 IAMACONGATOO (ML=9/2)
#4 JOHANNAH JO (ML=5/1)
#2 OHIO SILVER (ML=8/1)


IAMACONGATOO - This rider and trainer's animals have been producing a positive return on investment. Zielinski brings this mare back into a race rather than a workout. He knows his mare is on top of her game. Look for this mare to run a lot better today. Last affair at Thistledown finishing sixth on a track listed as good is no indication of her true ability. Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this pony is up against an easier bunch than last time around the track at Thistledown. JOHANNAH JO - Took a class drop last race out at Thistledown. Balo - Williams keeps her at the same level right here in this race. I think that's a good move. OHIO SILVER - I really like that recent outing on Oct 10th at Thistledown where she ran first. The jockey and trainer combination here have a high win percentage when they team up. Recent Equibase speed figures show strong pattern of improvement. I like the case that this filly's last speed fig, 64, is tops in this bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 HOLIDAY WEEKEND (ML=7/2), #10 MISS MICHELLE LYNN (ML=6/1),

HOLIDAY WEEKEND - The probable favorite is vulnerable here with the lack of morning blow outs. Disappointing speed rating last out at Thistledown at 5 1/2 furlongs. Don't believe this vulnerable equine will improve too much in today's race. MISS MICHELLE LYNN - Just cannot play this less than sharp equine. Didn't show me anything last out or on Sep 18th.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#11 IAMACONGATOO is the play if we get odds of 9/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

11 with [2,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [2,4,11] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

World Series

Game 6

Cubs @ Indians

Arrieta is 3-4, 4.70 in eight starts since September 1, 3-2, 3.72 in six postseason starts. Cubs are 4-6 in his last ten road starts.

Tomlin is 4-1, 1.98 in his last seven starts, 2-0, 1.76 in three postseason starts. Indians are 3-4 in his last seven home starts.

Cubs are 9-6 in playoffs this year, 4-3 on road; they’ve been shut out in four of their last ten*games. Chicago is 9-2 in playoffs if they score a run. Obviously Chicago hasn’t been in World Series since 1945, Indians since 1997. Cleveland is 10-3 in playoffs, 5-1 at home- they’ve tossed five shutouts in postseason.

Maddon is 26-28 as a playoff manager, 13-11 with Cubs. he lost 2008 World Series with Rays. Francona won World Series with Boston in 2004, 2007; he is 38-21 as a postseason manager, 11-2 in World Series games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

World Series

Game 6

Cubs @ Indians

Arrieta is 3-4, 4.70 in eight starts since September 1, 3-2, 3.72 in six postseason starts. Cubs are 4-6 in his last ten road starts.

Tomlin is 4-1, 1.98 in his last seven starts, 2-0, 1.76 in three postseason starts. Indians are 3-4 in his last seven home starts.

Cubs are 9-6 in playoffs this year, 4-3 on road; they’ve been shut out in four of their last ten*games. Chicago is 9-2 in playoffs if they score a run. Obviously Chicago hasn’t been in World Series since 1945, Indians since 1997. Cleveland is 10-3 in playoffs, 5-1 at home- they’ve tossed five shutouts in postseason.

Maddon is 26-28 as a playoff manager, 13-11 with Cubs. he lost 2008 World Series with Rays. Francona won World Series with Boston in 2004, 2007; he is 38-21 as a postseason manager, 11-2 in World Series games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Tuesday 11/1 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF

MEET STATS: 0 - 0 / $0.00

Best Bet: SOUTHERN CROSS (10th)

Spot Play: RANCOUSY (6th)


Race 1

(3) GINGER TREE ALEXIS is now in the high percentage Tom Milici barn. Four-year-old mare has proven to be fast in the past and can tap into that ability. (7) NEW YORK KITTY steps up to face better foes here, but is plenty sharp and gets helped by the scratch of #5 so she can move in a spot on the gate. (1) JOKES JET won at first asking on the barn and venue change; certainly capable.

Race 2

(1) FANCY DESIRE went down the road in this class on Friday and gets a free ride again because she dropped in before the win. (2) AMERICAN ALIVE should be able to follow the top pick away and receive a comfy pocket trip. (6) SUMMER SNOW also comes off a win at this level. Classy veteran is always capable but often inconsistent.

Race 3

(5) DREAMLANDS ART has been racing evenly versus better foes and finally gets much needed class relief. I don’t love his form, but he has plenty of back class to tap into. (7) KIWI IDEAL N gets to drop down off a win; clear contender despite outside post. (2) FRANCOHARRINGTON N dropped to this level a week ago but was stuck outside. Starting from post two this week could make a big difference.

Race 4

(3) FLEM N EM N won in this class last week to boost his career earnings over $750K. Eleven-year-old has lost a step or two but should be able to dig down deep for a second straight score. (2) COOPER COAST A gets an interesting trainer change to Richard Banca considering ownership seems to remain intact; eligible to improve. (5) GOOD DAY MATE hasn’t been able to win very often but should get into the number somewhere.

Race 5

(2) CLASSIC AMERICAN N closed well in his North American debut and now gets a hint of class relief in start two. I wouldn’t say this is an easy spot, but he should fit nicely. (3) IDEAL FASHION picked up a win for a $20K tag last week and strangely drops into a lower conditioned event; obvious player. (7) LETTUCERIPRITA A has been in some difficult spots out of town and wouldn’t be a complete shock in this spot.

Race 6

(1) RANCOUSY raced evenly from the back of the pack in his first start since the beginning of June. Starting from the inside this week, I’m expecting to see early speed and a much better performance. (5) ILIKETHEMTRASHY beat lesser three starts back and was rewarded with two outside posts in this class. Moving in a few spots on the gate could lead to better results today. (6) YIPPITY HANOVER is certainly down in class and has won over the track in the past.

Race 7

(5) STONEBRIDGE COMBAT has been up against it facing older foes in recent starts. Sophomore gets in against a group closer to his age and could take them down the road. (1) MADMAN HALL has finished second or third in half of his 30 starts this year and should be sitting in close attendance starting from post one. (6) TRIUMPHANT’S CHIP raced okay in his debut for this barn; improvement very possible. (9) DOUBLEDAY qualified okay in his first start since August; big driver change.

Race 8

(9) GLOBAL REVOLUTION has morphed into a new horse since adding Lasix; riding the wave here. (4) ZETTE STARLET is another on a roll of late and with her early speed she could be controlling the race; must use. (5) TIGHT LINES has been doing good work in minor stakes. He should bring his usual honest effort to the track.

Race 9

(3) DRAZZMATAZZ finds an extremely soft spot this week and gets a big driver change to Scott Zeron. (1) PERFECRT ROAD was done in by an early mistake last time and can makes amends. (8) CANDY LANE put in an improved effort last time and might be ready to turn a corner.

Race 10

(2) SOUTHERN CROSS blasted down the road as the heavy chalk in his last appearance here at this level; huge class relief. (4) EMERALD CHIP comes off an improved try in his second start for this barn. Trainer sent out an impressive winner here Sunday. (3) WINDSONG LUXURY has been chasing nicely of late and should get into the exotics somewhere.

Race 11

(8) ILL HAVE ANOTHER has posted two even efforts from outside posts since moving into the Melander barn. Three-year-old is stuck with a bad draw again but faces a blank field and might just be able to overcome. (2) TOUGH GET GOING flashed speed and weakened late last time. He is probably the horse to beat. (7) MANHATTAN AS qualified back well enough; huge player in this spot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'World Series GM-6'

Chicago Cubs were able to stave off elimination Sunday with a 3-2 victory in Game 5 at Wrigley Field and now face another Win-or-Be-Eliminated game as the series shifts back to Cleveland. Current odds have the Cubs -$1.43 road favorites with the total set at 7 runs across all shops.

Cubs 50-37 in an opposing park platting 5.21 runs/game should feel pretty confident sending Jake Arrieta to the mound. The right-hander has pitched better on the road (12-4, 12-6 TSR) than at home (7-5, 9-7 TSR) this season and enters off a solid 5 2/3 innings of 1 run ball in a win at Progressive Field in Game 2. Cleveland flourishing in front of the home audience this season (59-29) crossing 5.5 per/contest counter with Josh Tomlin. The right-hander blanking Cubbies on two hits in Tribe's Game 3 victory has allowed 2 or fewer runs in each of his three post season starts this season.

Some telling gems among a sea of baseball betting stats leap out favoring Cleveland clinching their first World Series Championship since 1948. The one run Game 5 loss bodes well for Cleveland's chances, since Indians are on a perfect 8-0 streak off a one run exact loss. Additionally, Indians have a sparkling 9-0 streak in their first game home off a road swing. One final betting nugget. 'Under' gambler's who've cleaned up with Cleveland this post season (2-11 O/U) won't* jump ship knowing Indians are 0-8-1 O/U in Tomlin's last nine starts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Tuesday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Finger Lakes (4th) The Undersheriff, 7-2
(7th) Spence Girl, 6-1


Mahoning Valley (2nd) Aristocrat Again, 10-1
(7th) Warren's Cracker, 3-1


Mountaineer (4th) Freedom Peace Love, 3-1
(9th) Wynn the Roses, 6-1


Parx Racing (2nd) Secret Secret, 6-1
(7th) Red Razzo, 5-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tuesday’s six-pack

Six of the more interesting football games this weekend:

— Colorado (-12) over UCLA Thursday. Buffs have come a long way to be a double digit favorite in a league game.

— Eagles scored five TDs during recent 1-3 stretch; interesting game with the Giants, who are coming off a bye.

— Pitt-Miami— Hurricanes are on a 4-game losing streak.

— Steelers-Ravens— Will Big Ben play for Pittsburgh?

— Alabama-LSU— Tide won last four series games by average score of 29-16.

—First place in AFC West is at stake in Denver-Oakland game Sunday night in the Coliseum.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tuesday’s six-pack

Six of the more interesting football games this weekend:

— Colorado (-12) over UCLA Thursday. Buffs have come a long way to be a double digit favorite in a league game.

— Eagles scored five TDs during recent 1-3 stretch; interesting game with the Giants, who are coming off a bye.

— Pitt-Miami— Hurricanes are on a 4-game losing streak.

— Steelers-Ravens— Will Big Ben play for Pittsburgh?

— Alabama-LSU— Tide won last four series games by average score of 29-16.

—First place in AFC West is at stake in Denver-Oakland game Sunday night in the Coliseum.