Tuesday 08/25/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Al McMordie

Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox

Total 9½ ov-113

At 7:10pm our complimentary selection is on the Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox 'over' the total. The second game of this Sox vs. Sox four game series is perhaps the most interesting of the pitching matchups. Boston has been scoring runs in big numbers lately: an amazing 65 runs in its last seven games as a matter of fact. So how ugly could this one get as Freddy Garcia, who at one time was the ace of the White Sox takes the mound tonight at Fenway Park. The only problem is, when Garcia was the ace of the White Sox, it was almost a decade ago. This is a guy who had 11 starts in 2007 (with a 1-5 record and 5.90 ERA), three starts in 2008, and just had his first start of 2009 on August 18 against one of the easiest opponents he could possibly face for his comeback, and the result was not pretty as Garcia was more than rusty in failing to get out of the 5th inning against the Royals. Boston will retaliate with their #2 starter, lefthander Jon Lester and Lester has been absolutely fantastic in his recent starts, limiting his opponents to one earned run in nine of this last 15. However, it's a good thing Lester has been getting excellent run support lately as many times he leaves games with a comfortable lead, only to have the Boston bullpen make it closer than it needs to be. In fact, in five of Lester's last eight starts, Boston has scored seven or more runs. take the 'over.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays

While the Rays have been in a fight for the wild card spot in the AL, James Shields has been struggling. The Tampa Bay righty is laying a pretty big road price for a pitcher who has seen his team lose five of his last six starts. The Rays have gone just 4-7 in his 11 road starts this season, and they have dropped two of his three starts against the Jays. Meanwhile, Toronto has won three of Brett Cecil's last four starts, and the southpaw has allowed just 11 earned runs in his last six outings, spanning 35 2/3 IP, for a 2.77 ERA to go along with a decent, 1.34 WHIP. Tampa has not fared too well in road games against lefties this season. They have cashed just nine of 23 tickets, and face an underrated southpaw tonight. I expect Cecil to get decent support at the plate. The Jays average 5 rpg in home games against righthanders, and as mentioned above, they have seen better righties than they'll face tonight. Good luck - Scott Spreitzer.

Play on: Toronto

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Experts

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants

This series against Arizona almost looks like a "must sweep" for the Giants, who just dropped three in a row to division rival Colorado to fall four back in the Wild Card chase. Luckily for them, in tonight's series opener, they have Matt Cain going. SF has won 17 of Cain's 25 starts this season, including 9 of 10 when off a loss. The G-Men are 25-11 overall in home night games while the D'backs are 12 games under .500 when coming off a win. Lay the price.

Play on: San Francisco

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vernon Croy

Vernon Croy's Tuesday Night MLB Bonus Play

Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox

Play: Chicago White Sox

Pick Title: 1* Take the Chicago White Sox on the Moneyline, We are getting solid value here Tuesday night with the White Sox who send Freddy Garcia (0-1, 10.38) to the mound since he is 7-2 over 14 career starts against the Red Sox. The White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 games after a loss and they are also 6-1 in their last 7 games after allowing 10 or more runs in their previous game. The White Sox are 21-6 in their last 27 games in game 2 of a series and they are also a perfect 5-0 in Garcia's last 5 starts as an underdog including 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road dog. The Red Sox are just 7-17 in their last 24 games when playing a team with a winning record and there is simply too much value here to pass up Tuesday night so take the Chicago White Sox as my MLB Bonus Play for Tuesday night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Paul Leiner

Free Pick for Today

Tuesday August 25 2009

Game: Blue Jays vs Rays

Prediction: 25* Rays -150

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

EZWINNERS

EZ'S FREE SELECTION

Game: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays


(920) Toronto Blue Jays +$132


(Listing Cecil and Shields)

James Shields was Tampa Bay's opening day starter, but wins have been hard to come by for him this season. Shields has really struggled as of late and is only 1-5 in his last 11 starts. This is not a good spot for him to get back on track either. Shields is only 3-4 with a 4.46 ERA on the road this season and in three games against the Blue Jays this year he has an 0-3 record. The Rays might also not be able to provide much run support for Shields in this spot. Tampa Bay tends to struggle against left handers and Toronto's southpaw Brett Cecil is 1-0 with a 1.17 ERA against the Rays this season. Tampa Bay is only 2-6 in Shields' last eight starts as a road favorite. The wrong team is favored in this match up. Play on Toronto.

2009 Free Selections Record 124-102 (54.9)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JR TIPS

Dodgers at Rockies

The Los Angeles Dodgers are now battling to hold onto their lead in the NL as they look to continue their season-long success against the second-place Rockies tonight at Coors Field.Los Angeles (74-51) faces the wild-card leading Rockies (71-54) who won against San Francisco Monday night with a walk-off grand slam to deliver a 6-4 victory.The Rockies' seventh win in eight games moved them four games ahead of the Giants in the division.Los Angeles has won 10 of the clubs' 12 meetings, including five of six in Denver and the Dodgers have averaged 6.6 runs and batted .306 in the series.Los Angeles won three straight over the Chicago Cubs before dropping the series finale 3-1 on Sunday. The Dodgers will try to snap a six-game losing streak with Clayton Kershaw (8-7, 2.96 ERA) on the mound.The 21-year-old left-hander gave up two runs and five hits in 3 2/3 innings in the Dodgers' 3-2 loss to St. Louis on Wednesday. He walked four in that game and has issued 15 in 19 innings over four August starts.Kershaw gave up a career-high nine runs in 4 2/3 innings to lose his first start against Colorado this season April 26th although he is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA in two starts against the Rockies since then. Colorado starts Jason Hammel (8-7, 4.54), who is 0-1 with a 2.45 ERA in three career games against the Dodgers and Hammel delivered another strong outing Thursday, allowing one run and three hits in seven innings to beat Washington 4-1, his third win in four starts.This is a big series for both teams in the division and these starting have been solid giving up lees than 3 runs to today"s opponent in their last 2 outings. The Dodgers number 3-6 hitters combined to go 0 for 12 with four strikeouts as the Dodgers finished with three hits in their last outing and the Rockies needed a grandslam in the 14th inning to get the win. This is a good pitching matchup that get keep runs at a minimum.

TAKE UNDER 9

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Alex Smart

Washington Mystics +3 FH

The Washington Mystics have for the most part played really well this season under coach Julie Plank. After two hard fought road games to start their current road trip, against the LA Sparks (72-69 loss) and Phoenix Mercury(91-81 win), the Wizards looked tired last time out against a struggling Sacramento team that they probably over looked. The Mystics with a dew days rest are now a viable side to back early here tonight in a bounce back situation (FIRST HALF LINE) vs a Seattle side that has not played all that well at home of late , with 3 of their L/5 going to OT, and with one win vs the NY Liberty coming by 1 point. (They failed to cover the first half line in 3 of those games). Look for the Wizards to give the Storm all they can handle early , and for us to get the cover.

Play on the Mystics on the (FIRST HALF LINE)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kosmo
8-25-09

Milwaukee -135 1 unit
Cubs -255 1 unit
NY Yankees -195 1 unit
Angels -165 2 units

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Vegas Steam Line

Free Winner for Tuesday:

Take DETROIT (Washburn) +160 over LA Angels

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Hochman

Jeff's Beat the line NCAAF free pick

Oregon vs. Boise State (NCAAF) - Sep 3, 2009 10:15 PM EDT

Play: Boise State -5/-103

After beating the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the Holiday Bowl, the Ducks had to say goodbye to 12 starters on both sides of the ball. The biggest hit came on the two lines. On the offense, Max Unger, Fenuki Tupou and Mark Lewis signed with NFL teams. And on the defensive line, both starting tackles are gone, as is All-American defensive end Nick Reed. The Broncos are 66-6 SU and 42-18 ATS on the blue smurf turf since 1993. Boise State by 7!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Frank Jordan

Free Underdog MLB Pick

New York Mets vs. Florida Marlins

Play: New York Mets +188

The Mets are having trouble staying healthily and Tuesday is no exception as the Mets scratched Johan Santana with an elbow pain. The past two years it was the Marlins who helped knock the Mets from playoff contention. This series will start the Mets playing spoil and help knock the Marlins from any playoff contention. Play NY Mets

 

[JDizzle311]

delaney and cannon have big plays today.....anyone plan on grabbing them?

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB SHORT SHEET


Tuesday, 8/25/2009

National League

PHILADELPHIA at PITTSBURGH, 7:05 PM ET
BLANTON: PHI 18-6 against NL Central
OHLENDORF: PIT 1-14 as a home underdog of +150 to +200

SAN DIEGO at ATLANTA, 7:10 PM ET
LATOS: SD 13-46 as an underdog of +150
JURRJENS: ATL 34-19 after one or more consecutive overs

NY METS at FLORIDA, 7:10 PM ET
FIGUEROA: NYM 12-2 OVER AWAY after 6+ consecutive home games
WEST: FLA 8-1 OVER at home in August

CINCINNATI at MILWAUKEE, 8:05 PM ET
ARROYO: CIN 17-34 after a team win
SUPPAN: MIL 20-8 OVER after allowing 2 runs or less

WASHINGTON at CHICAGO CUBS, 8:05 PM ET
MOCK: WAS 12-3 UNDER after 7+ consecutive home games
ZAMBRANO: CHC 9-16 after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less

HOUSTON at ST LOUIS, 8:15 PM ET
RODRIGUEZ: HOU 21-34 after one or more consecutive overs
WAINWRIGHT: 14-4 TSR in night games

LA DODGERS at COLORADO, 8:40 PM ET
KERSHAW: LAD 12-23 AWAY with a money line of -100 to -125
HAMMEL: COL 21-9 after a win by 2 runs or less

ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO, 10:15 PM ET
HAREN: ARI 2-8 after 7+ consecutive road games
CAIN: SF 16-5 at home with a money line of -100 to -150

American League

TEXAS at NY YANKEES, 7:05 PM ET
MILLWOOD: TEX 17-7 after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6
CHAMBERLAIN: 8-1 OVER as a home favorite of -150 or more

TAMPA BAY at TORONTO, 7:07 PM ET
SHIELDS: TB 80-38 as a favorite of -125 to -175
CECIL: TOR 19-30 when the total is 9 to 9.5

CHI WHITE SOX at BOSTON, 7:10 PM ET
GARCIA: CHW 41-22 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5
LESTER: BOS 11-1 after 4+ consecutive overs

BALTIMORE at MINNESOTA, 8:10 PM ET
MATUSZ: BAL 9-28 AWAY after 3+ consecutive road games
BAKER: 21-6 TSR as a favorite of -125 to -175

CLEVELAND at KANSAS CITY, 8:10 PM ET
MASTERSON: CLE 20-10 after 3+ consecutive wins
GREINKE: KC 9-19 after 2+ consecutive overs

DETROIT at LA ANGELS, 10:05 PM ET
WASHBURN: DET 2-12 AWAY after scoring 8+ runs
LACKEY: LAA 16-3 after 2+ consecutive losses

OAKLAND at SEATTLE, 10:10 PM ET
ANDERSON: OAK 13-6 after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less
ROWLAND-SMITH: SEA 30-17 UNDER when the money line is -100 to -150

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LT Profits

Brett Anderson has a very bright future, and the future may be now considering that he has allowed three runs or less in nine of 11 starts. Look for the A’s to earn a win in Seattle tonight.

The Oakland Athletics consider Brett Anderson to be the ace of their rotation for many years to come, and we feel the southpaw gives them the edge over the Seattle Mariners tonight.

After taking his lumps early in this, his first full season as a Major League starter, Anderson has come to form nicely, allowing three earned runs or less in nine of his last 11 starts. He pitched very well the last time he faced Seattle, one run on six hits in six innings, and he is facing a Mariners lineup that is batting a measly .226 vs. left handed pitching over the last 10 games.

Meanwhile, fellow southpaw Ryan Rowland-Smith has been unspectacular for Seattle. He is 2-1 with a 4.24 ERA in seven starts, with just three Quality Starts. Granted, that is not terrible, but he would need a shutdown effort if Anderson maintains his current form, and we are not convinced that Rowland-Smith is capable of that at this point in his career.

Now the Mariners have won 10 of the last 13 head-to-head meetings, including seven out of eight he at Safeco, but we really feel that this is a pitching mismatch here. There is a legitimate reason that Oakland is so high on Anderson given his recent performances, and the combination of he and an Athletics bullpen that has a 2.97 ERA in the last 10 games should be too much for Seattle to overcome.

The Athletics are the play at anything close to a Pick here.

Free Pick: Athletics +100

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bob Harvey

With a pair of aces like San Fran's Matt Cain and Arizona's Dan Haren squaring off, look for the Under to cash when the Giants host the Diamondbacks.

It’s hard to imagine how the Giants are going to bounce back from Monday Night’s crushing loss to the Rockies. The task won’t be easy as San Francisco will have to face on of the league’s top pitchers in Arizona's Dan Haren.

In case you missed it, the Giants fell to the Rockies 6-4 last night. And it wasn’t so much about the loss but how they lost it. After taking a 4-1 lead into the bottom of the 14th inning, Ryan Spilborghs belted a walk-off grand slam to cap a five-run rally and give the Rockies an improbable victory. It was a classic two-game swing. Instead of leaving town trailing by two games in the Wild Card race, San Francisco is now four games behind. If San Francisco fails to make the playoffs they’ll likely look to back to this game as the reason why.

Now, following a devastating defeat and a late night flight back to the Bay Area the Giants could be ripe for the pickings, especially against Haren who is 12-8 with a 2.74 ERA. The former Pepperdine star is also 6-3 on the road this season. He lost his only outing against the Giants this season, dropping a 2-0 decision back in April.

San Francisco will look to bounce back when they send Matt Cain to the mound. Cain is 12-4 on the year with an ERA of 2.43 and if ever the Giants needed a stopper, tonight’s the night. Cain is about as consistent as they come. He’s 6-2 at home and 6-2 on the road. He’ll need a Cy Young caliber performance tonight, perhaps a complete game, to give a tired Giants bullpen a lift.

The Giants will be facing a Diamondbacks club that is 34-25 to the Under on the road. The Under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 series meetings while the low side has played to a 7-2-1 tune in San Francisco’s last 10 games when favored.

The Giants and Diamondbacks are 6-2-1 to the Under this season while San Francisco is 8-15 to the Under with Cain on the mound. The Diamondbacks are 13-11 to the low side with Haren on the bump.

To make matters worse for the offensively-challenged Giants, All-Star Pablo Sandoval is doubtful for tonight’s game with a leg injury. Bottom line: Matt Cain needs to give the Giants a Cy Young worthy performance tonight. A tough loss.

Free Pick: Diamondbacks-Giants Under 7 (-110)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tom Freese

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants

Prediction: under

Reason: San Francisco is 40-19-4 UNDER their last 63 games vs. teams with a losing record. San Francisco is 7-1 UNDER their last 8 games as home favorites. The Giants are 10-1 UNDER with Matt Cain if he is off a quality start in his last outing. The Giants are 7-2-1 UNDER their last 10 meetings with Diamondbacks. Arizona is 29-14-2 UNDER their last 45 games as road underdogs and they are 4-1-1 UNDER following a day off. The Diamondbacks are 4-1-1 UNDER in the last 6 starts made by Dan Haren. The righthander has a 6-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. PLAY ON 'UNDER' (Cain vs. Haren)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Doc's Sports

Today’s Free Pick

GAME: Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays

PICK: Tampa Bay Rays -132

REASON FOR PICK: Bonus Play from Doc’s Sports. Take # 919 Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays (Tuesday 7:05p.m.) The Rays remain just 3-games from the wild card lead. There are just 38 regular season games remaining on their schedule. Fourteen of those games are against Boston and New York. One has to look back only as far as last season to know that Tampa has no fear of either the Red Sox or Yankees. These are games that the Rays must win.

 

[wags4]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Indians Monday night.

Today it's the Rays and Dodgers. The surplus is 1,460 sirignanos.

(FYI he's been on fire lately. Don't mean to clutter just want to inform ppl for their benefit.)

I saw him around 800 just a couple of weeks ago. But he could be do for a losing streak. Hope not.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Boyd

Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals

Cleveland Indians +145

1 Unit on Cleveland Indians +145
The Tribe is worth a 1 Unit wager at this price tonight when you consider how poorly the Royals are playing. I know KC sends Greinke to the mound, but the Royals are only 1-8 in his starts in the 2nd half of the season, losing by an average of 2 runs per game. Plus, KC is 0-10 after allowing 8 runs or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons, losing by 3.6 runs per game on average in these spots. Masterson looked great in his last start against the Angels and is 1-0 with an ERA of 1.42 and a WHIP of 0.948 in 1 career start against KC. The Indians are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 while the Royals are 1-6 in their last 7 games as a favorite and 6-25 in their last 31 home games. Take the Tribe.