Just did a final run through of the various web sites giving you the % of bets on each team. The Spread, which was above 70% last nite with 36,778 total bets on the game now has dropped to 66% with 45,873 bets on the game. No other site is above 70%. Money is coming in on Jax.
Arizona is still above 70% on all sites, so I hereby make it official. SEATTLE is the trap play.
Arizona is still above 70% on all sites, so I hereby make it official. SEATTLE is the trap play.
Sonny: I'm sold on them. I saw it work 2 years ago by the originator of this theory. 10 out of 10 is more than just good luck.
The problem is that I don't know if I have the analytical skills to isolate these every week like Don Dollars had.
In fact, as I said above, this is just an experiment for the time being and I'm not betting Seattle today. I've been burned by Seattle twice this year and that's enough.
1.) Line seems to be "too good to be true".
Arizona is 6-3 and Seattle is 2-7 yet the line is only -3.
2.) % of people on the game.
All consensus sites have a large % on Arizona.
3.) Watch the lines all week.
This has been at -3 all week even with people betting largely on Arizona.
4.) What does Pinnacle want me to do?
Pinnacle is offering -3 +111 for Arizona while the other books are at -3 +100 or even -3 -105 leading me to think Pinnacle want people to bet even more on Arizona by giving a better price. One exception is 5dimes which has been offering lines similar to Pinnacle.
5.) What is the public's perception of who is playing?
Arizona just won on Monday night so their victory is fresh in their minds. Seattle has lost 5 out of their last 6.
Summary:
In my opinion Arizona isn't such a great team, struggling against a weak San Francisco team at home last Monday night. Seattle has shown that they can play well against weak teams when they beat San Francisco a couple weeks ago. This week they have home-field advantage.
Arizona is the sucker play.
I bet on Seattle +3 -118.
Arizona is 6-3 and Seattle is 2-7 yet the line is only -3.
2.) % of people on the game.
All consensus sites have a large % on Arizona.
3.) Watch the lines all week.
This has been at -3 all week even with people betting largely on Arizona.
4.) What does Pinnacle want me to do?
Pinnacle is offering -3 +111 for Arizona while the other books are at -3 +100 or even -3 -105 leading me to think Pinnacle want people to bet even more on Arizona by giving a better price. One exception is 5dimes which has been offering lines similar to Pinnacle.
5.) What is the public's perception of who is playing?
Arizona just won on Monday night so their victory is fresh in their minds. Seattle has lost 5 out of their last 6.
Summary:
In my opinion Arizona isn't such a great team, struggling against a weak San Francisco team at home last Monday night. Seattle has shown that they can play well against weak teams when they beat San Francisco a couple weeks ago. This week they have home-field advantage.
Arizona is the sucker play.
I bet on Seattle +3 -118.
Another potential trap play is Philly. I sometimes use 5dimes instead of Pinnacle when they offer better odds.
Philly has 76% on them and 5dimes is offering them at -8 1/2 while everyone else has them at -9. Pinnacle has them at -9 1/2 +112 which would have the drop-down menu at -8 1/2.
I took Cincinnati at +9 1/2 -117 at Matchbook.
Philly has 76% on them and 5dimes is offering them at -8 1/2 while everyone else has them at -9. Pinnacle has them at -9 1/2 +112 which would have the drop-down menu at -8 1/2.
I took Cincinnati at +9 1/2 -117 at Matchbook.
Well it looks like the Cincinnati game is a winner since that went to OT.
We have another Pinny/5dimes lean game in Pittsburgh. Pitt is -4 1/2 everywhere except for -4 at 5dimes. Pinnacle is offering -4 1/2 +104 but using the dropdown it's at -4 -106.
Pittsburgh has 64% at Wagerline and 69% at theSpread.
I put a little on SD +4 1/2.
Nice read on Cinci QL. I had 'em too.
Still hopin' our Sea play comes home (halftime now).
But I think the real "sucker play" was Tenny (and I got sucked in).
1) Line definately too good to be true
2) Large % on Tenny
3) Funny that this libe held three or went down at some sights
4) including Pinnacle (-1)
5) Public perception on Tenny at season long high; on Jax at season long low
Refs are flagging Tenny like crazy. Sumpin' fishy here. We shoulda believed what we smelled methinks.
Still hopin' our Sea play comes home (halftime now).
But I think the real "sucker play" was Tenny (and I got sucked in).
1) Line definately too good to be true
2) Large % on Tenny
3) Funny that this libe held three or went down at some sights
4) including Pinnacle (-1)
5) Public perception on Tenny at season long high; on Jax at season long low
Refs are flagging Tenny like crazy. Sumpin' fishy here. We shoulda believed what we smelled methinks.
hno:Yea nice call on San Diego too QL. I need to pay attention to the line movement right up to gametime.
Sorry 'bout the premature belching about Sea and Tenny. I've been doing this stuff a long time. I know better. Just frustrated by a lotta work bringing negative results the past two weeks I guess.
Where are ya Don Dollars? We need ya.
Sorry 'bout the premature belching about Sea and Tenny. I've been doing this stuff a long time. I know better. Just frustrated by a lotta work bringing negative results the past two weeks I guess.
Where are ya Don Dollars? We need ya.
Thanks guys. Went 2-1 with my picks in this thread with a little luck. This is why I think it's good to identify all the potential picks, not just one.
We almost had the Seattle winner. They just got too far behind in the 1st half. One thing I like to remember is that I will not go 1-0 every week but I would like to think I could average 2-1.
Another thing I'm thinking is that Don Dollars may have been using theSpread.com instead of Wagerline. The reason I think this way is because he mentioned the 70% number and Wagerline rarely gets spreads over that number for NFL.
I did notice that Philly/Cincy had 72% for the over at Wagerline and also had reverse line movement and the Pinnacle lean (41 +101 while others had 41 -110). That game went way under.
We almost had the Seattle winner. They just got too far behind in the 1st half. One thing I like to remember is that I will not go 1-0 every week but I would like to think I could average 2-1.
Another thing I'm thinking is that Don Dollars may have been using theSpread.com instead of Wagerline. The reason I think this way is because he mentioned the 70% number and Wagerline rarely gets spreads over that number for NFL.
I did notice that Philly/Cincy had 72% for the over at Wagerline and also had reverse line movement and the Pinnacle lean (41 +101 while others had 41 -110). That game went way under.
F**k I sit here handicapping what I know for 2 hours on one game chargers vs. steelers and decide that I am going to take steelers even though they got backups covering the recievers of Rivers. And then I see rule number 4 which in this case Pinnacle is begging people to play steelers at -5(+101 !!).:think2: Know gotta lay off!!
woohoo rule 4 saved me from the steelers!!!
ope:arty:
