F**k I sit here handicapping what I know for 2 hours on one game chargers vs. steelers and decide that I am going to take steelers even though they got backups covering the recievers of Rivers. And then I see rule number 4 which in this case Pinnacle is begging people to play steelers at -5(+101 !!).:think2: Know gotta lay off!!
I wouldn't go crazy over the Pinnacle lean and make my whole decision on that 1 point.
Its not easy to decipher Pinnacles positions and that is because they dont actually take a view but maximise their advantage in the market place. Rather than just accept bets in the old fashioned sense they take bets at bad odds but trade the more sharper bets. Offering prices on Matchbook is a guaranteed success as they can dictate the movement while Matchbook are thankful of the 2% comm.
All in all, Pinny are best viewed with an open mind as to their reasons but I would say generally if its over -105 EG -102 then there's a good chance the price will drift. :drink:
All in all, Pinny are best viewed with an open mind as to their reasons but I would say generally if its over -105 EG -102 then there's a good chance the price will drift. :drink:
As of now (Sat @6:15PM EST) money has been coming in on Jax and the % of bets on Tenn is down to about 60%. I also see a lot of handicappers picking Jax.
I think this doesn't meet the requirements of Rule 2 and unless someone else comes up with a better idea, there will be no trap game this week. I'll make a final determination tomorrow morning.
I think this doesn't meet the requirements of Rule 2 and unless someone else comes up with a better idea, there will be no trap game this week. I'll make a final determination tomorrow morning.
Still seeing 70% + at thespread.com (info provided by sportsinsights.com) and vegasinsider.com.
http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart
and
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/matchups/
Then you have wagerline.com (covers.com) at 60%
Not sure what sites are more accurate.
Might be worth keeping an eye on ARI/SEA. Arizona has been getting pounded and the line hasn't budged off 3.
http://www.covers.com/pageloader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/matchups/g1_summary_13.html
and
http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart
and Pinny
<TABLE class=rt_railbox_border2 cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=bg2 noWrap>11/14</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap align=right>1:44pm</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI-147 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>SEA+137 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI-3 +105 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI+3 -113 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>47.5 -103 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>47.5 -107 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI-0.5 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>SEA+0.5 </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=bg2 noWrap>11/15</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap align=right>10:13am</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI-150 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>SEA+140 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI-3 +102 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI+3 -110 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>47.5 -103 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>47.5 -107 </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=bg2 noWrap>11/15</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap align=right>3:11pm</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI-150 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>SEA+140 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI-3 +103 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI+3 -111 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>47.5 -103 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>47.5 -107 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI-0.5 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>SEA+0.5 </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=bg2 noWrap>11/15</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap align=right>7:23pm</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI-150 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>SEA+140 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI-3 +104 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI+3 -112 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>47.5 -103 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>47.5 -107 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI-0.5 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>SEA+0.5 </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
http://www.covers.com/pageloader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/matchups/g1_summary_13.html
and
http://www.thespread.com/nfl-football-public-betting-chart
and Pinny
<TABLE class=rt_railbox_border2 cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=bg2 noWrap>11/14</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap align=right>1:44pm</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI-147 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>SEA+137 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI-3 +105 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI+3 -113 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>47.5 -103 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>47.5 -107 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI-0.5 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>SEA+0.5 </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=bg2 noWrap>11/15</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap align=right>10:13am</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI-150 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>SEA+140 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI-3 +102 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI+3 -110 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>47.5 -103 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>47.5 -107 </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=bg2 noWrap>11/15</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap align=right>3:11pm</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI-150 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>SEA+140 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI-3 +103 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI+3 -111 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>47.5 -103 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>47.5 -107 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI-0.5 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>SEA+0.5 </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD></TR><TR><TD class=bg2 noWrap>11/15</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap align=right>7:23pm</TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI-150 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>SEA+140 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI-3 +104 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI+3 -112 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>47.5 -103 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>47.5 -107 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>ARI-0.5 </TD><TD class=bg2 noWrap>SEA+0.5 </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD><TD class=bg2> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Here are the teams with the line staying the same:
Philly -9
Green Bay -3 1/2
Carolina -14
Tampa Bay -4
SF -6 1/2
AZ -3
Here are the teams with the line moving in the favorite's favor:
Indy (-10 to -8)
Miami (-11 to -10)
Tennessee (-3 to -1)
---------------------
At Wagerline, only Pittsburgh and AZ have 65% or more.
At sports.com, the following have 70% or more:
Indy 70%
Tennessee 88%
Philly 84%
Tampa Bay 71%
SF 75%
AZ 84%
---------------------
I'm thinking Tennessee and AZ right now are the sucker bets but we will have to see on Sunday.
Philly -9
Green Bay -3 1/2
Carolina -14
Tampa Bay -4
SF -6 1/2
AZ -3
Here are the teams with the line moving in the favorite's favor:
Indy (-10 to -8)
Miami (-11 to -10)
Tennessee (-3 to -1)
---------------------
At Wagerline, only Pittsburgh and AZ have 65% or more.
At sports.com, the following have 70% or more:
Indy 70%
Tennessee 88%
Philly 84%
Tampa Bay 71%
SF 75%
AZ 84%
---------------------
I'm thinking Tennessee and AZ right now are the sucker bets but we will have to see on Sunday.
I did some more research tonight on the % of bets at each website. This is what I found:
Carib
Tenn 59%-11,532 bets
Ariz 81%- 8,908 bets
The Spread
Tenn 71%-36,778 bets
Ariz 84%- 27,485 bets
Wagerline
Tenn 59%- 2,885 bets
Ariz 71%- 2,517 bets
Covers.com
Tenn 59% -?
Ariz 71% -?
It looks like Covers.com and Wagerline may be getting the info from the same source.
Arizona has consistently held above the 70% mark with all websites. The only problem with them is that there has not been any reverse line movement. Don Dollars did discuss that point and he said it does not disqualify a team from being the trap game if they don't move off a line of 3 because the books try to hold a 3 point line so as not to get middled. His final conclusion was that if bets are coming in heavy on a 3 point favorite and the line doesn't move its as good as a reverse line movement.
In the meantime, Tenn is not holding consistently over 70% and as I said above, more money is coming in on Jax and they are being picked by more cappers.
It looks like Arizona may be the trap. I'm going to sleep now and will decide tomorrow morning.
Carib
Tenn 59%-11,532 bets
Ariz 81%- 8,908 bets
The Spread
Tenn 71%-36,778 bets
Ariz 84%- 27,485 bets
Wagerline
Tenn 59%- 2,885 bets
Ariz 71%- 2,517 bets
Covers.com
Tenn 59% -?
Ariz 71% -?
It looks like Covers.com and Wagerline may be getting the info from the same source.
Arizona has consistently held above the 70% mark with all websites. The only problem with them is that there has not been any reverse line movement. Don Dollars did discuss that point and he said it does not disqualify a team from being the trap game if they don't move off a line of 3 because the books try to hold a 3 point line so as not to get middled. His final conclusion was that if bets are coming in heavy on a 3 point favorite and the line doesn't move its as good as a reverse line movement.
In the meantime, Tenn is not holding consistently over 70% and as I said above, more money is coming in on Jax and they are being picked by more cappers.
It looks like Arizona may be the trap. I'm going to sleep now and will decide tomorrow morning.
I believe Wagerline is meant to gauge public opinion as the number of bets so money is not brought into consideration there. Two other sources, caribsports.com and sports.com may not be accurate as they are tied in with books and books don't always want the public to know which sides are being bet for the purpose of what we are doing.
