Tracking "Number of Innings in which a Run is Scored In" SYSTEM

JerseyShop101 · Jul 12, 2009

DAY 33 - JULY 12TH PLAYS:

CWS +115 (4%,11%)
CLE +190 (4%,9%)
CUBS/STL GM1 UNDER 9 -115 (50%,45%)
CIN/NYM UNDER 8 -110 (46%,38%)
SD/SF UNDER 8 -110 (47%,42%)
BAL/TOR UNDER 9 -110 (52%,48%)

BOSTON WAS A PLAY WITH THIS AND ALSO THE "6orMoreScInningsSystem", BUT WITH THE LINE AROUND -300, I'M NOT PLAYING IT AS I'VE LOST TWICE BEFORE WITH THESE HUGE LINES.

GOOD LUCK TODAY EVERYONE! I AM CLOSE TO MY OVERALL YTD UNITS HIGH OF +24.09 .

LETS BEAT THAT TODAY ON LUCKY DAY #33.
:toast:

YTD (32 DAYS)
9% and Up Plays: 56-33 63% +17.16
UNDERS: 50-32-2 61% +14.00
Total: 106-65 62% +31.16
Overall: 143-105-4 58% +23.35

marcopolo84 · Jul 12, 2009

hey jersey, would you have any insight into the cubs/stl night game?

RazorMX · Jul 12, 2009

oh my!! 1-5 day....

i guess the break will give a time to analyze it more..

Michelangelo · Jul 12, 2009

Don't worry about today Joisey. You've had an exceptional run since introducing your concepts. Bad days happen. Hell, bad weeks happen. But overall you've been very steady.

Hope ya kick ass again in the second half.

southbeach · Jul 12, 2009

Maybe going to the well to many times on the same teams :think2:

marcopolo84 · Jul 12, 2009

can you use your system some how with the all star game?

southbeach · Jul 13, 2009

http://www.baseball-reference.com/allstar/ @):toast:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/All-Star_Game

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/shareit/jXn2

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/

http://www.baseball-reference.com/allstar/leaders_bat.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/allstar/leaders_pitch.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Home_run_derby

southbeach · Jul 13, 2009

good luck with the game :dancefool

JerseyShop101 · Jul 13, 2009

Thanks.

Not the way to go out with a 1-4 -4.35 day. But for the 33 day test, I have to be happy about finishing up +19.00 units overall.

Here's the final balance sheet:

DATE DAY # W L T Units W L T % YTD Units BB W BB L Units BB W BB L % Units
10-Jun 1 8 4 1 2.21 8 4 1 67% 2.21 0 1 -1.49 0 1 0% -1.49
11-Jun 2 7 5 1 2.88 15 9 2 63% 5.09 2 1 0.85 2 2 50% -0.64
12-Jun 3 9 2 0 7.10 24 11 2 69% 12.19 2 1 1.10 4 3 57% 0.46
13-Jun 4 7 6 0 0.38 31 17 2 65% 12.57 1 2 -1.25 5 5 50% -0.79
14-Jun 5 9 1 0 7.95 40 18 2 69% 20.52 3 0 3.00 8 5 62% 2.21
15-Jun 6 2 0 0 2.00 42 18 2 70% 22.52 0 0 0 8 5 62% 2.21
16-Jun 7 7 6 1 0.72 49 24 3 67% 23.24 0 0 0 8 5 62% 2.21
17-Jun 8 4 3 0 0.31 53 27 3 66% 23.55 0 0 0 8 5 62% 2.21
18-Jun 9 4 4 0 -0.80 57 31 3 65% 22.75 0 0 0 8 5 62% 2.21
19-Jun 10 3 6 0 -4.19 60 37 3 62% 18.56 0 0 0 8 5 62% 2.21
20-Jun 11 2 8 0 -8.50 62 45 3 58% 10.06 1 2 -1.75 9 7 56% 0.46
21-Jun 12 8 5 0 2.13 70 50 3 58% 12.19 3 1 2.00 12 8 60% 2.46
22-Jun 13 4 1 0 2.82 74 51 3 59% 15.01 1 1 -0.18 13 9 59% 2.28
23-Jun 14 3 5 0 -2.65 77 56 3 58% 12.36 1 2 -1.25 14 11 56% 1.03
24-Jun 15 6 2 0 3.70 83 58 3 59% 16.06 3 2 0.70 17 13 57% 1.73
25-Jun 16 2 4 0 -2.95 85 62 3 58% 13.11 0 3 -3.75 17 16 52% -2.02
26-Jun 17 6 5 0 0.59 91 67 3 58% 13.70 1 2 -1.00 18 18 50% -3.02
27-Jun 18 6 3 0 3.38 97 70 3 58% 17.08 1 2 -1.15 19 20 49% -4.17
28-Jun 19 4 4 0 -1.26 101 74 3 58% 15.82 0 0 0.00 19 20 49% -4.17
29-Jun 20 3 4 0 -1.50 104 78 3 57% 14.32 2 1 0.95 21 21 50% -3.22
30-Jun 21 4 2 0 3.72 108 80 4 57% 18.04 2 0 3.40 23 21 52% 0.18
01-Jul 22 3 1 0 2.00 111 81 4 58% 20.04 1 1 0.00 24 22 52% 0.18
02-Jul 23 4 0 0 4.05 115 81 4 59% 24.09 2 0 2.05 26 22 54% 2.23
03-Jul 24 2 2 0 -0.08 117 83 4 59% 24.01 1 1 -0.10 27 23 54% 2.13
04-Jul 25 3 4 0 -2.47 120 87 4 58% 21.54 1 1 -0.22 28 24 54% 1.91
05-Jul 26 3 3 0 0.14 123 90 4 58% 21.68 2 1 1.09 30 25 55% 3.00
06-Jul 27 2 4 0 -2.78 125 94 4 57% 18.90 2 2 -2.53 32 27 54% 0.47
07-Jul 28 3 2 0 0.35 128 96 4 57% 19.25 1 1 -0.15 33 28 54% 0.32
08-Jul 29 4 3 0 0.30 132 99 4 57% 19.55 0 3 -3.70 33 31 52% -3.38
09-Jul 30 4 3 0 0.40 136 102 4 57% 19.95 0 0 0.00 33 31 0% -3.38
10-Jul 31 3 2 0 0.65 139 104 4 57% 20.60 1 1 0.00 34 32 0% -3.38
11-Jul 32 4 1 0 2.75 143 105 4 58% 23.35 1 0 1.00 35 32 0% -2.38
12-Jul 33 1 5 0 -4.35 144 110 4 57% 19.00 0 0 0.00 35 32 0% -2.38

YTD (33 DAYS)
9% and Up Plays: 56-35 62% +15.16
UNDERS: 51-35-2 59% +11.65
Total: 107-70 61% +26.81
Overall 144-110-4 57% +19.00

My Overall record started out great for the 1st 8 days, making +23.55, then for the next 25, basically treaded water, hitting a low of +10.06, and coming back up to +23.35 yesterday.

For the second half of the season, I'm going to be using a different system and approach, using more recent On base percentage and Runs scored averages.

Thanks for all your support and I hope you all have a great All Star break and 2nd half of the season!

:toast:

whitty · Jul 13, 2009

Thanks for the work Jersey. I'll be interested to read about your updated system for the second half. I've just added avg runs per scoring inning and avg runs per inning to my spreadsheet but haven't gone any further.

I might convert the spreadsheet to a database to make it easier to run different reports.

RazorMX · Jul 13, 2009

your work is appreciated. looking forward to that new system

southbeach · Jul 14, 2009

2nd hf is gonna be outstanding ,, I BELIEVE :cripwalk:

CLefty · Jul 15, 2009

BOL on the second half of BB. Number of watchers growing by the day. Congrats. :103631605

JerseyShop101 · Jul 16, 2009

DateTeam#i InnNextGmML
1 06-Apr ARI 6 Lost -155 Home
2 07-Apr SF 6 Lost -102 Home
3 09-Apr CLE 6 Lost -152 Home
4 10-Apr MINN 6 Lost -116 Away
5 10-Apr DET 6 Won -168 Home
6 13-Apr WAS 6 Won +121 Home
7 13-Apr TOR 6 Lost +113 Away
8 13-Apr TB 6 Lost -118 Home
9 15-Apr TOR 6 Won -133 Away
10 15-Apr TEX 6 Lost -113 Home
11 18-Apr CLE 6 Lost +220 Away
12 19-Apr LOS 6 Lost -163 Away
13 22-Apr TB 7 Lost -106 Away
14 22-Apr DET 6 Lost -132 Away
15 24-Apr TOR 6 Lost +158 Away
16 25-Apr PITT 6 Won +181 Away
17 25-Apr NYY 6 Lost +113 Away
18 26-Apr LAA 6 Won -121 Away
19 28-Apr SEA 6 Lost -124 Away
20 29-Apr SF 6 Won -108 Home
21 02-May KC 7 Won +120 Away
22 05-May STL 6 Won -152 Home
23 12-May COL 6 Lost -150 Home
24 13-May ATL 6 Won -191 Home
25 13-May HOU 6 Won -114 Away
26 13-May MINN 6 Won -111 Home
27 21-May PHI 7 Won +152 Away
28 21-May MINN 6 Won -141 Home
29 25-May CWS 7 Won +178 Away
30 10-Jun STL 6 Won -116 Away
31 11-Jun TB 6 Won -250 Home
32 13-Jun LAA 7 Won -179 Home
33 15-Jun MIL 6 Won -142 Away
34 16-Jun TB 6 Lost +105 Away
35 17-Jun MIL 6 Lost -105 Away
36 18-Jun TOR 6 Lost -102 Away
37 18-Jun ARI 6 Lost +119 Away
38 23-Jun BOS 6 Won -167 Away
39 25-Jun NYY 6 Won -171 Away
40 27-Jun CWS 6 Won +100 Home
41 29-Jun MIL 6 Won +111 Home
42 03-Jul CLE 6 Won -113 Home
43 03-Jul WAS 6 Won -102 Home
44 04-Jul TEX 6 Won +126 Home
45 08-Jul COL 6 Won -137 Home
46 08-Jul TB 6 Won +108 Home
47 11-Jul BOS 6 Won -320 Home
48 12-Jul COL 6

STREAK: 10 Wins +10.45
LAST28: 23-5 82% +19.38
Home: 15-1 94% +13.95
Away: 8-4 67% +5.43
YTD: 28-19 60% +8.59 units
Home: 17-6 74% +9.76
Away: 11-13 46% -1.17

Colorado scored in 6 separate innings on July 12th. They play Away in San Diego. GOING FOR 11 IN A ROW!

TAKE COLORADO -133

Guys, Just wanted to make sure you are on COL today and if your interested, I'm starting a new thread for the 2nd half. I'm focusing on the last 7days Scoring and On Base Percentage. SEA at +180 is one of the plays as was COL. I'm confident this new system will do well.

:toast:

pumptender · Jul 16, 2009

hey jersy

i was wondering is this still part of your original system or is it a variation of a different one or what ? i know you know your stuff and was just wondering why change something that has been so good . Best of luck brother and continued success

JerseyShop101 · Jul 16, 2009

pumptender said:
hey jersy

i was wondering is this still part of your original system or is it a variation of a different one or what ? i know you know your stuff and was just wondering why change something that has been so good . Best of luck brother and continued success

I'm trying to get an even better winning percentage, I am only tracking the last 7 days now, instead of the 12 as before. I'm giving more weight to the OBP and runs scored. So basically its a variation.

:toast:

JerseyShop101 · Jul 16, 2009

I made this new thread:

JERSEYSHOP101's "MAKE THAT MONEY" MLB PLAYS

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Testing the waters, focusing more on the Last 7 days Runs Scored and On Base Percentage for each time and their opponents averages.

DAY 1 - JUL 16th PLAYS:

Value Rating of 3:
SEA +180
PHI +105
LOS/HOU OVER 8.5 EV

Value rating of 2:
COL -133
LAA/OAK OVER 8.5 -110

Value rating of 1:
MILW EV
ATL -200
LOS -145

The Value rating is for tracking purposes only as I am flat betting 1 unit per play. The Value 3's are my top plays.

My top 3:
SEA +180 Stats point towards Seattle in this spot as a big dog. Cliff Lee, even though he's terrific against SEA, hasn't been getting any run support and I don't expect him to get any tonight. Indians are winless in his last 6 starts, it will be 7 after tonights game.

PHI +105 No brainer here, as hot Philly averaging 7.6 runs per game in last 7, and an awesome 40.8% OBP!

LOS/HOU OVER 8.5 EV Dodgers OBP OF 40.8% plus HOU 38.3%, = lots of base runners and 10 or more runs!

MAKE THAT MONEY!
:toast:

CLefty · Jul 16, 2009

JerseyShop101 said:
Colorado scored in 6 separate innings on July 12th. They play Away in San Diego. GOING FOR 11 IN A ROW!

TAKE COLORADO -133

:toast:

Hopefully this will hold serve despite the all star break-days off.

JerseyShop101 · Jul 17, 2009

Colorado was a winner on Thursday!

AND they scored in 6 innings Again making it a play for Friday.

38 23-Jun BOS 6 Won -167 Away
39 25-Jun NYY 6 Won -171 Away
40 27-Jun CWS 6 Won +100 Home
41 29-Jun MIL 6 Won +111 Home
42 03-Jul CLE 6 Won -113 Home
43 03-Jul WAS 6 Won -102 Home
44 04-Jul TEX 6 Won +126 Home
45 08-Jul COL 6 Won -137 Home
46 08-Jul TB 6 Won +108 Home
47 11-Jul BOS 6 Won -320 Home
48 12-Jul COL 6 Won -133
49 17-Jul COL 6

STREAK: 11 Wins +11.45
LAST29: 24-5 83% +20.38
Home: 15-1 94% +13.95
Away: 9-4 69% +6.43
YTD: 29-19 60% +9.59 units
Home: 17-6 74% +9.76
Away: 12-13 48% -0.17

GOING FOR 12 IN A ROW!

TAKE COLORADO -160

:toast:

whitty · Jul 17, 2009

Mate I dunno what's involved in your other system, but using the last 14 playing days I'm 6-2 so far today (tonight? I dunno) and just waiting on Colorado.

Even the 2 overs my spreadsheet picked went 1-1 and cancelled each other out at least.

I like baseball more and more each day