Tracking "Number of Innings in which a Run is Scored In" SYSTEM

[JerseyShop101]

DAY 26 RESULTS

1-4 -378

Here's the OVERALL BALANCE SHEET for the LAST 17 DAYS:
DATE DAY # W L T Units W L T % YTD Units BB W BB L Units BB W BB L % Units
20-Jun 11 2 8 0 -8.50 62 45 3 58% 10.06 1 2 -1.75 9 7 56% 0.46
21-Jun 12 8 5 0 2.13 70 50 3 58% 12.19 3 1 2.00 12 8 60% 2.46
22-Jun 13 4 1 0 2.82 74 51 3 59% 15.01 1 1 -0.18 13 9 59% 2.28
23-Jun 14 3 5 0 -2.65 77 56 3 58% 12.36 1 2 -1.25 14 11 56% 1.03
24-Jun 15 6 2 0 3.70 83 58 3 59% 16.06 3 2 0.70 17 13 57% 1.73
25-Jun 16 2 4 0 -2.95 85 62 3 58% 13.11 0 3 -3.75 17 16 52% -2.02
26-Jun 17 6 5 0 0.59 91 67 3 58% 13.70 1 2 -1.00 18 18 50% -3.02
27-Jun 18 6 3 0 3.38 97 70 3 58% 17.08 1 2 -1.15 19 20 49% -4.17
28-Jun 19 4 4 0 -1.26 101 74 3 58% 15.82 0 0 0.00 19 20 49% -4.17
29-Jun 20 3 4 0 -1.50 104 78 3 57% 14.32 2 1 0.95 21 21 50% -3.22
30-Jun 21 4 2 0 3.72 108 80 4 57% 18.04 2 0 3.40 23 21 52% 0.18
01-Jul 22 3 1 0 2.00 111 81 4 58% 20.04 1 1 0.00 24 22 52% 0.18
02-Jul 23 4 0 0 4.05 115 81 4 59% 24.09 2 0 2.05 26 22 54% 2.23
03-Jul 24 2 2 0 -0.08 117 83 4 59% 24.01 1 1 -0.10 27 23 54% 2.13
04-Jul 25 3 4 0 -2.47 120 87 4 58% 21.54 1 1 -0.22 28 24 54% 1.91
05-Jul 26 3 3 0 0.14 123 90 4 58% 21.68 2 1 1.09 30 25 55% 3.00
06-Jul 27 2 4 0 -2.78 125 94 4 57% 18.90 2 2 -2.53 32 27 54% 0.47

YTD (27 DAYS)
9% and Up Plays: 47-27 64% +16.06
UNDERS: 42-27-2 61% +11.65
Total: 89-54 62% +27.61
Overall 125-94-4 57% +18.90

 

[JerseyShop101]

DAY 28 - JULY 7th PLAYS:

MILW -150 (4%,9%)
NYY -143 (2%,11%)
CWS -169 (1%,11%)
LOS/NYM UNDER 8.5 -120 (48%,38%) BEST BET
DET/KC UNDER 8.5 -115 (49%,47%) BEST BET

TURNING IT AROUND TODAY!

:toast:


YTD (27 DAYS)
9% and Up Plays: 47-27 64% +16.06
UNDERS: 42-27-2 61% +11.65
Total: 89-54 62% +27.61
Overall 125-94-4 57% +18.90

 

[whitty]

Is there any reason you haven't picked WAS? I have a spreadsheet showing them at 31% to COL 21% over the last 14 days.

I'm trying to understand a bit more and blindly follow a bit less

 

[JerseyShop101]

Is there any reason you haven't picked WAS? I have a spreadsheet showing them at 31% to COL 21% over the last 14 days.

I'm trying to understand a bit more and blindly follow a bit less

Very good question.

When rounded up (which I do on here to just make it easier) the percentages are really close (8% and 9%), but when you look a little closer its an exact tie of .086 percent for each team on opposite spreadsheets.
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 300pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=400 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 60pt" span=5 width=80><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=80 height=18>COL</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=80 x:num>84</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=80 x:num>256</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right width=80 x:num="0.328125" x:fmla="=SUM(B1/C1)">0.328 </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right width=80 x:num="8.5999999999999993E-2">[FONT=돋움]0.086[/FONT]</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=80 height=18>WAS</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>[FONT=돋움]66[/FONT]</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>[FONT=돋움]273[/FONT]</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right width=80 x:num="0.24175824175824176" x:fmla="=SUM(B2/C2)">0.242 </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 300pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=400 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 60pt" span=5 width=80><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=80 height=18>COL</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right width=80 x:num>21</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right width=80 x:num>92</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right width=80 x:num="0.22826086956521738" x:fmla="=SUM(B1/C1)">0.228 </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=80></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=80 height=18>WAS</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right width=80 x:num="27">27 </TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right width=80 x:num="86">86 </TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right width=80 x:num="0.31395348837209303" x:fmla="=SUM(B2/C2)">0.314 </TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="8.5999999999999993E-2">[FONT=돋움]0.086[/FONT]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Because, of this EXACT tie I made it a No Play. Yesterday, it was clearly WAS with 11%, to COL's 8.5%......unfortunately.

I'm glad to see your on it though

:toast:

 

[RazorMX]

Thanks for the plays!

 

[sparticus]

On the plus side,gl

 

[southbeach]

Because wash sucks ,,never bet a suck team no matter what stats say

 

[whitty]

Because wash sucks ,,never bet a suck team no matter what stats say

Haha thanks mate. I've never really followed baseball so stats is all I'm working with. We get some games live on TV but it's all early morning when I'm usually at work.

 

[JerseyShop101]

DAY 28 - JULY 7th RESULTS:

MILW -150 (4%,9%) LOST
NYY -143 (2%,11%) WINNER
CWS -169 (1%,11%) WINNER
LOS/NYM UNDER 8.5 -120 (48%,38%) BEST BET WINNER
DET/KC UNDER 8.5 -115 (49%,47%) BEST BET LOST

3-2 +0.35

 

[JerseyShop101]

DAY 29 - JULY 8th PLAYS:

LOS DODGERS -150 (3%,11%) BEST BET HOT PLAY
COL -170 (9%,-5%)
NYY -140 (3%,11%)
CWS -145 (0%,10%)

LOS/NYM UNDER 8.5 EV (47%,39%) BEST BET
STL/MIL UNDER 9.5 -115 (55%,48%)
TOR/TB UNDER 9 -120 (57%,48%) BEST BET


Best Bets:
I really like the Dodgers here as the Mets are just terrible right now - dead last 30th place in both my spreadsheets at 22% and 14%.

LOS 72 283 0.254
NYM 63 288 0.219
0.47

LOS 24 96 0.250 0.11
NYM 14 100 0.140
0.39

Mets are 2-36 6% compared to LOS 12-27 44%.

For even more of a comparison:
Mets are just 14 of last 100 14%
NYY 17-38 45% - Yanks have 3 more and in 62 innings less!!!
CLE 16-34 47%
LAA 17-42 40%
CWS 17-44 39%

The numbers also support LOS/NYM UNDER 8.5.

TOR/TB UNDER 9 looks good as both below average and current streaks also support the under, TOR 10-50 (20%), and TB 6-47 (13%).

Note: With CWS and CLE hot bats I seriously considered taking the Over also but the line is at 9.5, if it was at 9 I'd pull the trigger.

:toast:

YTD (28 DAYS)
9% and Up Plays: 49-28 64% +16.56
UNDERS: 43-28-2 61% +11.50
Total: 92-56 62% +28.06
Overall 128-96-4 57% +19.25

 

[RazorMX]

Let's have this one!!

GL!

 

[JerseyShop101]

Thanks Razor, looking forward to a winning day!

 

[JerseyShop101]

I just want to throw this out there, what I've noticed recently. I'm going to track the last 3 games stats- it only consists of the amount of scored innings, no total innings or percentage needed. I noticed when these matched our picks the winning percentage was higher.

Just add the previous 3 games scored inning total:
If there is a difference of 8 or more the higher is a PLAY.
If the total is 13 or under, the Under is a play.
If the total is 21 or more, the Over is a play.

Here's the last 3 days:

Diff of 8 or more is a PLAY 2-0
13 or less is UNDER 7-0-2
21 or more is OVER 4-0

I just want to see how this does today. 7 plays fit this criteria and it matches 3 of the plays we made today, LOS, LOS/NYM Under, and TOR/TB Under, which are all the Best Bets.

PIT 3
HOU 8 Under 8 -110


ATL 6
CUB 7 Under 9 +105


WAS 6
COL 6 Under 10.5 EV


FLA 5
SFO 5 Under 8 EV


LOS 12 LOS -150
NYM 1 Under 8.5 EV


TOR 6
TAM 5 Under 9 -120

We might be able to use this a tool to get a higher winning percentage, we'll see.
:toast:

 

[marcopolo84]

hey jersey, did you notice that colorado scored in six innings today? you think that will be a good play tomorrow? And tampa might do it too. thanks

 

[marcopolo84]

Yeah tampa made it too. So it looks like i have two hopefully good plays for tomorrow.

 

[sparticus]

Made a few more bucks today as i got the dodgers/mets game@9,manny's homer in the ninth cost me a win instead of a push,gl.

 

[southbeach]

4-3

+0.30 on day

 

[hwoody77]

I just want to throw this out there, what I've noticed recently. I'm going to track the last 3 games stats- it only consists of the amount of scored innings, no total innings or percentage needed. I noticed when these matched our picks the winning percentage was higher.

Just add the previous 3 games scored inning total:
If there is a difference of 8 or more the higher is a PLAY.
If the total is 13 or under, the Under is a play.
If the total is 21 or more, the Over is a play.

Here's the last 3 days:

Diff of 8 or more is a PLAY 2-0
13 or less is UNDER 7-0-2
21 or more is OVER 4-0

I just want to see how this does today. 7 plays fit this criteria and it matches 3 of the plays we made today, LOS, LOS/NYM Under, and TOR/TB Under, which are all the Best Bets.

PIT 3
HOU 8 Under 8 -110


ATL 6
CUB 7 Under 9 +105


WAS 6
COL 6 Under 10.5 EV


FLA 5
SFO 5 Under 8 EV


LOS 12 LOS -150
NYM 1 Under 8.5 EV


TOR 6
TAM 5 Under 9 -120

We might be able to use this a tool to get a higher winning percentage, we'll see.
:toast:

So only the Dodgers on sides today?

 

[RazorMX]

a winning day .. i'll take 4-3 anyday.

 

[JerseyShop101]

Yeah thanks guys, hopefully the winning days will get much larger :>)

4-3 +0.30 for Jul 8th is correct