Tracking "Number of Innings in which a Run is Scored In" SYSTEM

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Sportsrmylife

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STACKS ON DECK said:
damn man i have to get back on. i wonder if the success of the unders has anything to do with all the unders going on in te league right now. what do you think? im hopping back on nice job
Click to expand...
I just think that underdogs and unders in baseball are where the (i hate this word) "value" is and if his system is aiming toward them it is a money maker.

JMO
 

JerseyShop101

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Thanks guys.

Sportsmylife, That is really a good idea. Someone mentioned in another thread, how WAS is great for the 1st 5 innings and then they ALWAYS fall apart in innings 6 through 9. Could be a very good moneymaker finding the correct angles, but really pretty busy right now.
 

STACKSONDECK

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okay cool... whats good with the totals is we dont get ate up by juice.
 

JerseyShop101

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I put this in my other thread, but its gotta be nice when you can blindly play the unders and hit a huge percentage. But eventually this should get back to a more "normal" balance.

Date W L T %
27 June 11 3 1
28 June 14 1 0
29 June 10 2 0
30 June 6 7 2
1 July 11-3-1
2 July 5-4-0
Total 57-20-4 74%

The only way I consider my Unders is if they are below at least 6% of the spreadhseets average.
 
CLefty

CLefty

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JerseyShop101 said:
I put this in my other thread, but its gotta be nice when you can blindly play the unders and hit a huge percentage. But eventually this should get back to a more "normal" balance.

Date W L T %
27 June 11 3 1
28 June 14 1 0
29 June 10 2 0
30 June 6 7 2
1 July 11-3-1
2 July 5-4-0
Total 57-20-4 74%
Click to expand...
It should be noted that during this stretch, Jersey went 8-1-1 on the unders or 88%. Which way out preformed the "blind" unders. Excellent!!!:103631605
 

Sportsrmylife

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CLefty said:
It should be noted that during this stretch, Jersey went 8-1-1 on the unders or 88%. Which way out preformed the "blind" unders. Excellent!!!:103631605
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Depends what you consider to be "outperformed?". Jersey was 7 games above .500 while the blind betting was 37 games above .500. Don't look at a % as the way to rate something that is outperformed.

I love Jersey's system though. Just giving my opinion here.
 

meaculpa

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games over .500 says nothing for it doesn't include anything about the sample-size. Would you rather go 25-5 or 1180-1100? I'd know.
 

geeze

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Sportsrmylife said:
Depends what you consider to be "outperformed?". Jersey was 7 games above .500 while the blind betting was 37 games above .500. Don't look at a % as the way to rate something that is outperformed.

I love Jersey's system though. Just giving my opinion here.
Click to expand...


Yes Jersey outperformed the blind betting. You should equalize the amount invested for a true comparison.

57-20=77 bets at 110/100 for an total investment of 8470 with a profit of 3500.

8-1 =9 bets at 941/855 for an equal investment of 8470 with a profit of 5900.
 

JerseyShop101

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Thanks guys, running late, writeups to follolw later:

DAY 25 - July 4th PLAYS:

CINN -127
COL -200
CWS -122

STL/CINN UNDER 9.5 -110
NYM/PHILLY UNDER 10 -110
LOS/SD UNDER 8 -115
ARIZ/COL UNDER 9.5 -110
 

JerseyShop101

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DAY 24 - July 3rd Results:

CWS +122 (7%,16%) WINNER
ATL/WAS UNDER 9.5 -120 (48%,58%) LOST
NYM/PHILS UNDER 10 -120 (49%,40%) BEST BET WINNER
STL/CINN UNDER 9.5 -110 (50%,45%) BEST BET LOST

2-2 -0.08

Really felt bad on that STL/Cinn under. Only 3 runs scored going into the 8th inning, then Pujols grand slam then worse. OUCH!


YTD (24 DAYS)
9% and Up Plays: 45-21 68% +21.71
UNDERS: 38-22-2 63% +13.25
Total: 83-43-2 65% +34.96
Overall 117-83-4 59% +24.01
 

JerseyShop101

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CLefty said:
Are any of the picks for today Best Bets?
Click to expand...

Been busy busy.

For the Best Bets: 3 of them today

CHICAGO WHITE SOX -122 BEST BET

Sorry this game is already playing of course, but just to show you its a huge 20% difference. 2 teams continuing to go in opposite directions. Again sorry for posting so late today.
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 240pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=320 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 60pt" span=4 width=80><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=80 height=18>CWS</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right width=80 x:num>41</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right width=80 x:num>99</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right width=80 x:num>0.41</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=18>KAN</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>21</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>100</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>0.21</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Also their recent streaks:
CWS 39-90 43%
KAN 3-36 8%
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=80 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 60pt" width=80><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=80 height=18></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE style="WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=80 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 60pt" width=80><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=80 height=18></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
NYM/PHILLY UNDER 10 -110 BEST BET
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 240pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=320 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 60pt" span=4 width=80><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=80 height=18>NYM</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right width=80 x:num>23</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right width=80 x:num>106</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right width=80 x:num="0.22">0.22 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=18>PHI</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>15</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>81</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>0.19</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=18></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" align=right x:num>[FONT=돋움]0.41[/FONT]</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
These last 12 games stats are very very low. Fernando Nieve has a 2.25 ERA and last 3 starts 2.35 ERA. MOYER hasn't done well 6.05 and 5.82, but when he faced the mets on June 11th, he only gave up 3 runs in 6 innings, in the Phils 6-3 win.


LOS/SD UNDER 8 -115 (45%,45%) BEST BET

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 240pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=320 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 60pt" span=4 width=80><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=80 height=18>LOS</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right width=80 x:num>21</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right width=80 x:num>96</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right width=80 x:num>0.22</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=18>SDG</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>23</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>98</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>0.23</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=18></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent"></TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" align=right x:num>0.45</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Both terrible Recent streaks:
LOS 7-57 12%
SD 10-53 19%<TABLE style="WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=80 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 60pt" width=80><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; WIDTH: 60pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=80 height=18></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Here's the numbers for all the plays today:

DAY 25 - July 4th PLAYS:

CINN -127 (-1%,9%)
COL -200 (9%,4%)
CWS -122 (8%,20%) BEST BET

STL/CINN UNDER 9.5 -110 (51%,45%)
NYM/PHILLY UNDER 10 -110 (50%,41%) BEST BET
LOS/SD UNDER 8 -115 (45%,45%) BEST BET
ARIZ/COL UNDER 9.5 -110 (59%,48%)

:toast:<!-- / message -->
 

JerseyShop101

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southbeach said:
alot of chalk there I would never lay over -140 @)
Click to expand...

I totally understand, but staying true to the system. Really the -1.5 EV isnt bad either, but I'm playing the under also, still could see a COL 5-2, or 6-3 final though.

Arizona has only scored in 4 innings out of their last 37 (11%). Although COL has slowed down 8-48 17%, kinda broke out of their slump yesterday with 3 scoring innings, they still are ranked 1st in my Since 1June stats (78-230 34%).

ARI's Petit has been absolutely terrible 9.94 ERA last3, COLs Cook has been doing great 2.01 ERA, last3.

But yes still a lot of juice, but I'm on it.

Good luck today!

:toast:
 
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