Some outstanding info in the thread. I enjoy browsing some stats but they have way to many variables imo. So I don’t weigh then too heavy.
JT has been the stat king past month but not lived up to it. Would love to see him get the groove back. DJ is in the zone. But man he does have problems closing with pressure. I wonder how that lead affects him being chased down. Will him and Rahm play conservative?
Donald Ross, Bermuda Greens, Driving accuracy is important here imo. Don’t see an advantage for bombers.
Webb- fits stats box here. But also plays Donald Ross and Bermuda greens on another level. Has the form, took last week off, starts -7, and it almost seems like it’s destiny he wins due to his game fit for course and the incredible year he has quietly had.
Berger- on par with Webb. Just not sure he can close yet. His odds increase to win the harder course plays imo. Steady 4 day of -2 golf rounds may be just enough.
Morikawa- 1st appearance here I believe. Starts off in good position. Game is solid and for value odds wise and his start position. He will check the box on stats also.
Todd- accuracy all around. Steady Eddie all the way. Like Berger, if the course plays harder he will have advantages. Huge odds but does start out okay at -4.
Xander- stat fit everywhere and course history is amazing in 3 tries. Always a hugely popular bet every week for folks.
I always like to take a glance at guys finishing spots year before. This tournament is different with no cut and only 30. But typically if a guy top 5’s previous year I kick him back next year. A guy top 6-10 previous year I go the opposite for higher finish. Again, this isn’t the best tournament for this but I still always do this and then narrow it down by form and fit etc.
Finish Past 4 Years
DJ - 29 3 17 6 5
JT - 3 7 2 6 (I lean JT finish Outside top 5) To win Pass
Rory - 1 7 1 ( I lean Rory finish outside top 5) To win Pass
Xander - 2 7 1 ( I lean Xander finish outside top 5) To win Pass
Rahm - 12 11 7 ( I lean Rahm inside top 5) To win pass (short odds)
Webb - 16 4 13 ( I lean Webb inside top 5) To win play
Finau - 7 15 7 ( I lean Finau inside top 5) To win pass (too many shots back)
Bison - 12 19 ( I lean Bison inside top 5) To win play (gulp)
Berger - x x 15 15 12 ( I lean Berger inside top 5) To win play
Deki- 9 4 26 3 12 ( I lean Deki inside top 5) To win pass (Putt/ Tee game)
With short odds, stroke advantage and only 30 golfers it’s take a stab at value. I do think the course plays very hard. Greens look super fast. Watching charity event ZJ and Palmer having trouble on them and they look fast. Hitting fairways and good putting is the value. I think -8 for 4 rounds is the target score. So any golfer -3 or lower I find it hard to see they can shoot low enough to catch a guy up top who plays just okay.
Webb 12-1
Bison 23-1
Berger 26-1
For value to hedge Sunday or Monday
Todd 90-1 ( starts -3, harder course better he fits)
English 60-1 (starts -4
Im 75-1 (starts -4 plays Bermuda greens and Donald Ross better)
The value may be to take 1-2 golfer with decent odds and see how course plays. Then jump on a guy or 2 after Saturday.
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