Tomb Raider/Seabiscuit/Spy Kids 3d

[Hitman26]

JCam:

We obvisouly disagree on this because I see you have predicted 35 million, and the odds makers agree with you. I don't care how many screens they are showing it on I just have a feeling it will bomb. I predicted 20-25 million and I could be a little high on that one but I will stick with it.


Goodluck
Hitman

 

[jcambert]

I don't want to argue on this, because nobody really ever knows, but, on what do you base this "feeling"? There really is no precedence on what you are saying.

JP

 

[Gillian]

Good Luck? Sounds like a handicapper to me. They always say, Good luck, right before they knife you in the back.

 

[Oren1]

Even if Tomb Raider "bombs", I can't see it going under 21 million... I would be shocked. For the sequel to take in 27 million less than the origional, that would definitely be a first, I'm sure(?) Blair Witch 2 was not nearly as popular as the first, that would be one precedent perhaps to look at. BW1 was one of the most hyped movies of all time, though. I can't come up with any definitive numbers that I'll definitely stick with, but my current guesses would be:
Tomb Raider 35
hold on stop the presses,

Seabiscuit's buzz number is now 33! WHAT THE ****? Tomb Raider's still only got 17.

This would normally mean at least 20 million for S, so much for my 10 million guess. I was going to say 15 million this time, but I give up. I have no idea.
Spy Kids 21 million

So far I don't really like any of those brackets. I might stick with the over/unders. If Seabiscuit takes in over 20, and Spy Kids does 21, It's going to be pretty crowded there for the rest of the pie, maybe Tomb Raider WILL bomb? I seriously doubt it, besides that buzz index, there are some signs that it HAS to do better thn Seabiscuit. BB2 is still hyped, Pirates is on a strong run, maybe all the unders will play out.
Another possibility is Spy Kids could be the odd man out. I figure one of these movies has to be a dissapointment, is there eenough room for3 overs? no way, I'm thinking. And we all know how dodgey the moviefone chart is, but Tomb Raider is number 10, no sign of Seabiscuit or Spy Kids yet. 28 days later is #1, and How to Deal is still number 3, and that movie isn't doing shit. I've also seen signs that Angelina Jolie is generating some strong buzz, and after the Orlando Bloom event in which I was the only sucker not to cash in on, maybe Tmb Raider will do O.K. Jolie buzz isn't going to get a lot of females into the theaters, though, and the guys were going to come anyways.

[This message was edited by Oren1 on July 23, 2003 at 02:39 PM.]

[This message was edited by Oren1 on July 23, 2003 at 02:40 PM.]

 

[Oren1]

O.K., here are my current guestimates, drum-roll please.

Tomb Raider 24 million
Seabiscuit 25 million

LOL
Spy Kids 3d 16 million

,

my anal muscles are starting to twitch,

 

[Oren1]

I don't think I'm going to touch the over/unders until tomorrow, assuming WSEX puts theirs up tonight. Seabiscuit's buzz number must be inflated in some way, the discrepancy between it's number and Tomb Raider's is quite unusual. (look at S.W.A.T. go)

 

[Hitman26]

Jcam:

I'm not looking for an argument either. I enjoy the hell out of your posts and predictions. I'm just posting my opinion. The reasons I think TR2 will not do as well as is expected are:

1. The first movie was terrible at best.
2. It opened up against weak competion.
3. Much competion this weekend with POTC, BB2, that damn Fish that wont go away, Seabiscuit, and SpyKids3.
4. Jcam, Oren, and the Oddsmakers' predictions of 35 million is a lot of money for a movie with a female lead. The "blockbusters of the summer" are in the rearview mirror.
5. Before this month I did't even know TR2 was so close to a release, but I will give them props on their advertising this week (it's everywhere I look). I don't think the film was marketed for a build up hit but rather a drop it in your lap at the end of this month film.

I could be way off and you could be right on. I guess we will find out Sunday night.


That's the way I see it
Hitman

 

[Hitman26]

Sorry Oren.


I see you've dropped your prediction from 38 to 24 million. I think that was a smart move.



Hitman

 

[Oren1]

It could change tomorrow, but for now I can't ignore the fact that thtere seem to be absolutely no buzz surounding Tomb Raider at the moment, and Seabiscuit could dethrone it this week! I don't know, though, if I just wen ton my gut, I'd say Seabiscuit has NO CHANCE IN HELL. We'll see.... here's another place to guage a movie's buzz"
http://entertainment.msn.com/comingsoon/

Look at the "user review" for Tomb Raider, there's 19 pages of them. Seabiscuit has 3. hmmmm all the Tomb Raider posts are about Angelina Jolie's , more or less, but Pirates has a lot of posts about Orlando Bloom as well. I'm still not convinced either way for any of these movies. Whent he **** does football start?

 

[Oren1]

another note: Pirate's buzz score was 34 on Tuesday, the day before it's release. This ended up being a somewhat low score, I think, compared to it's actual buzz and popularity. Tomb Raider is of the same genre, but of course, isn't even close to being as anticipated as Pirates. But that 17 for TR is preobably a bit decieving.

 

[Oren1]

something else to keep in mind, adult-oriented films apparently don't tend to be as front-loaded as teen+ targeted movies.

 

[jcambert]

Hitman, I actually agree with all your points, and, I think that this movie has a GREAT chance to underperform, but, the fact remains that, for it to do less than $21mil, would be almost numerically impossible. What I was saying before is that there is no precedence for a "blockbuster" like this, to do a PTA of less than $7k. I'm sure it has happened before, but, it is HIGHLY unlikely. If this film did around $9k on a per theater average, it would probably be considered an absolute bomb, and that would mean that the film would STILL do around $29mil. For it to do less than $21, it would have to do around $6500 PTA and that simply aint gonna happen. Or at the very least, there is no value in that play. Maybe if the odds were 10/1 or something like that, but, at +320, there simply isn't any value. I would say that there is less than a 10% chance that this stays under $21mil.

But, hey, I've been wrong before, as is well documented on these boards, and, you might be right.

I will say that I DO agree with you, though, that this film will likely underperform. I've actually lowered my expectations to around $30mil.

JP

 

[Oren1]

"Some industryites had predicted "BBII" might open north of $50 million, but its restricted rating always made such forecasts a bit iffy."

 

[joethor]

the o/u at wsex tomb raider o/u-27, seabiscut-o/u-15, spykids-o/u-17.5.i see tremendous value in seabiscut, despite the low theater count

 

[Oren1]

I didn't realise that Spy Kids 2 was apparently a Wednesday opener. It did 25 million for the 5 day, which in't that bad. I will probably be revising my forecast tomorrow, that Seabiscuit buzz score could fall back down...

 

[Oren1]

well, this is interesting... there is another movie movie chart, which "measures searches and clicks across Yahoo! Movies to determine popularity." And it's quite a bit different from the buzz index.
http://movies.yahoo.com/boxoffice/latest/rank.html

1. Bad Boys II
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
3. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
4. Lara Croft Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life
5. Freddy Vs. Jason
6. American Wedding
7. Seabiscuit
8. Gigli
9. Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over
10. Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines

that's more like it.

 

[joethor]

only play is seabiscut over 15 million. 6 units to win 4. unusually high for me, but i think this movie has a number of things going for it. 1)solid internet buzz 2)starpower tobey maguire, jeff bridges, chris cooper and dreamworks. 3)critically acclaimed(important to older viewers)4)expert predictions(if you put any stock into that). not one i have seen is under 18.5 million.5) true feel good family picture potential(very rare for summer). this will not be bridges of madison county. it wont win the weekend but 15 million c'mon.

 

[Gillian]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Oren1:
one thing I forgot to mention, Tomb Raider is the #221 selling DVD at Amazon.com, which isn't bad. By comparison, Bad Boys has 3 versions out, which are #'s 307, 1,010, and 3,085. Fast and the Furious is (4 versions) 1,509, 5,373, etc. The top selling Terminator 2 DVD is #97. Spy Kids 2 is 1,149, Spy Kids 1 is 1,530. Bridges of Madison County is 552

lol ... I have a feeling I could be underestimating Tomb Raider. It could be similar to Pirates of the Caribean in that it's slipping under the radar as far as internet buzz goes.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

JUST TO MAKE SURE... IS HIGHER THE NUMBER THE BETTER... OR IS LOWER BETTER. NOT SURE IF IT'S HOW MANY COPIES THEY'VE SOLD, OR A RANKING. PLEASE TELL ME, OREN.

 

[Oren1]

lower the better. Tomb Raider is the 221st best selling DVD there. Not sure why it's so high, maybe it's only 99 cents.

 

[Gillian]

LOL.