Oren, you gotta start looking a little closer at this stuff...
While Gangs of New York only had a $9.5 million opening weekend, it was also only shown in 1500 theaters -- thats pretty low. That next weekend it was bumped up to 2200 theaters, which makes me guess that the advertising really didn't pick up until around then either.
It had a $6,314 PSA... So if you put it at the # of theaters that Seabiscuit will likely be in (2200+), it would have done around $14 million dollars.
You also have to look and see what else was released that same weekend -- the most anticipated movie of the year, Lord of the Rings: Two Towers. That 2nd weekend? Catch Me If You Can.
To compete with Lord of the Rings: Two Towers your first weekend, and Catch Me If You Can your second weekend is about 100 times harder than the competition of Tomb Raider 2
Keep in mind I don't think that $14 million is the # it will hit at, as I haven't done the research on it yet (and won't until I'm sure they are posting lines on it - although I did already take it +$4 million vs Kill Bill), but I was just pointing out how your Gangs of New York comparison was somewhat flawed.
While Gangs of New York only had a $9.5 million opening weekend, it was also only shown in 1500 theaters -- thats pretty low. That next weekend it was bumped up to 2200 theaters, which makes me guess that the advertising really didn't pick up until around then either.
It had a $6,314 PSA... So if you put it at the # of theaters that Seabiscuit will likely be in (2200+), it would have done around $14 million dollars.
You also have to look and see what else was released that same weekend -- the most anticipated movie of the year, Lord of the Rings: Two Towers. That 2nd weekend? Catch Me If You Can.
To compete with Lord of the Rings: Two Towers your first weekend, and Catch Me If You Can your second weekend is about 100 times harder than the competition of Tomb Raider 2
Keep in mind I don't think that $14 million is the # it will hit at, as I haven't done the research on it yet (and won't until I'm sure they are posting lines on it - although I did already take it +$4 million vs Kill Bill), but I was just pointing out how your Gangs of New York comparison was somewhat flawed.
That's why I post this crap, so you guys can correct my errors, heheh. I don't get paid to sit around and research box office data. My bad... I don't know, maybe I'll pass on Seabiscuit, I can see it going either way. On one hand, you've got the boring looking story, on the other hand, you've got Toby Mcguire, the fans of the book, good word of mouth, etc. I'll wait until tommorrow to post my final forcast, assuming that's when the lines are opened.
Not really. It would have to do around $9k per theater to do about $20mil, and, that's what I'm predicting. I'm going to go with $18 to $20mil. But, I think that's going out on a limb really. I get a feeling that this number will open up in the low teens.
As for Tomb Raider, I'm going with a PTA of around $11k, assuming it opens in 3200 theaters, I'm going to go with right around $35mil. I just don't see much anticipation for this movie at all. I, for one, don't have any desire to see this.
As for Spy Kids, I don't really know, to be honest. I'm tempted to say $18 to $20mil, similar to Seabiscuit (but with a MUCH lower PTA).
JP
As for Tomb Raider, I'm going with a PTA of around $11k, assuming it opens in 3200 theaters, I'm going to go with right around $35mil. I just don't see much anticipation for this movie at all. I, for one, don't have any desire to see this.
As for Spy Kids, I don't really know, to be honest. I'm tempted to say $18 to $20mil, similar to Seabiscuit (but with a MUCH lower PTA).
JP
theater counts can be somewhat irrelevant if there is a strong demand for the movie, people will show up at the theaters that are playing it. If you show it they will come.
An extreme example is the Blair Witch Project. That films buzz was so strong that when it innitially opened in 27 theaters, the per screen average was $56,000.
On the other extreme, you have films like Spy Kids 3D that doesn't have the strongest buzz in the world, but by saturating the market with advertising and showing it in a large number of theaters, you're bound to attract customers you otherwise wouldn't have. And with a movie like X2... it broke the record for number of screens and look what happened. Positive buzz/high screen count= $$$
"Over $150M+ 48.48%"
WTF?!!
anyways, Cradle of Life is up at ITops.:
Box Office Opening Weekend Gross: Lara Croft Tomb Raider - Cradle of Life
3-day weekend from Friday, July 25 through Sunday, July 27.
Closing Date: Jul 25, 2003 07:00
Bet Selections Win Odds Bet!
USD 35 million to 46.9 million 2.25
USD 21 million to 34.9 million 2.3
USD 47 million or more 3.25
USD 20.9 miliion or less 4.5
anyways, Cradle of Life is up at ITops.:
Box Office Opening Weekend Gross: Lara Croft Tomb Raider - Cradle of Life
3-day weekend from Friday, July 25 through Sunday, July 27.
Closing Date: Jul 25, 2003 07:00
Bet Selections Win Odds Bet!
USD 35 million to 46.9 million 2.25
USD 21 million to 34.9 million 2.3
USD 47 million or more 3.25
USD 20.9 miliion or less 4.5
""S.W.A.T.," which won't go head to head with any other wide openings the weekend of Aug. 8-10 since "Freaky" arrives on Wednesday of that week, is reportedly tracking great and showing signs of becoming a solid late summer hit for Columbia. Directed by Clark Johnson, the police action thriller stars Samuel L. Jackson and Colin Farrell.
In one of the summer's smartest marketing moves, Columbia took advantage of what it correctly anticipated would be a huge opening for "Bad Boys II" to promote "S.W.A.T." "We've got a trailer on 'S.W.A.T.' attached to 'Bad Boys,' which played great this weekend," Sony Pictures Entertainment vice chairman Jeff Blake told me Sunday. "We're certainly looking forward to its opening Aug. 8. Hopefully, everybody who's seeing 'Bad Boys' (is going to get) excited about 'S.W.A.T.' also. So the summer's certainly not over for us."
With "Boys" opening to $46.5 million and the average ticket price these days about $5.81, that means about eight million sets of eyeballs saw Columbia's "S.W.A.T." trailer last weekend. Moreover, all those people were moviegoers. Better yet, all of them were action movie fans. While television advertising reaches millions of people, not all of them are moviegoers. Trailers are seen by people who have paid to get into a movie theater, which makes that audience the best you can get when you want to sell them on seeing another movie. It's the best of all marketing worlds when a film like "S.W.A.T." can have its trailer playing on a hit movie that's targeted to the same audience."
In one of the summer's smartest marketing moves, Columbia took advantage of what it correctly anticipated would be a huge opening for "Bad Boys II" to promote "S.W.A.T." "We've got a trailer on 'S.W.A.T.' attached to 'Bad Boys,' which played great this weekend," Sony Pictures Entertainment vice chairman Jeff Blake told me Sunday. "We're certainly looking forward to its opening Aug. 8. Hopefully, everybody who's seeing 'Bad Boys' (is going to get) excited about 'S.W.A.T.' also. So the summer's certainly not over for us."
With "Boys" opening to $46.5 million and the average ticket price these days about $5.81, that means about eight million sets of eyeballs saw Columbia's "S.W.A.T." trailer last weekend. Moreover, all those people were moviegoers. Better yet, all of them were action movie fans. While television advertising reaches millions of people, not all of them are moviegoers. Trailers are seen by people who have paid to get into a movie theater, which makes that audience the best you can get when you want to sell them on seeing another movie. It's the best of all marketing worlds when a film like "S.W.A.T." can have its trailer playing on a hit movie that's targeted to the same audience."
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Sound of Silence:
Obviously taken from a bunch of guys that don't know a lot about the box office...
Road to Perdition, which had just as much Oscar buzz and bigger actors (Hanks, Newman) didn't even pull in $105 million.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Hey, Oren, do you smell that...? Smells like a scared pussy. lol. Do it, bud, before it drops.
Obviously taken from a bunch of guys that don't know a lot about the box office...
Road to Perdition, which had just as much Oscar buzz and bigger actors (Hanks, Newman) didn't even pull in $105 million.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Hey, Oren, do you smell that...? Smells like a scared pussy. lol. Do it, bud, before it drops.
I'm always one to play for value, but, I see no value in that play at all. For it to go under $21 mil, considering that it's playing in upwards of 3,000 theaters (closer to around 3200), it would have to have a PTA of around $6,500, and, that aint happening here. I would say there is around a 5% chance that this could happen.
JP
JP
