To the Doomsayers that are "all in" on the shelter-in-place...

[Heatwave]

...why don't we just do this all the time? I mean after all, we lose over 50k people yearly to the flu and over 17 million worldwide to infectious diseases. Clearly social distancing works. If we could cut those numbers in half, wouldn't that be a great way to go?

And if your answer is it's because we don't have a vaccine, then let's say one gets developed and we lose 150k-200k yearly to the corona virus with the vaccine. You good with that?

No political slant from me - the truth is that every single person has a different "acceptability" of deaths from COVID. But my thought is that this won't be the last time we do this.

Social distancing and shutting down was the only choice we had to prevent "significant deaths". No one arguing that. We are looking at numbers of around 60K deaths right now projected. No one really knows what the death count would have been had we done nothing. I think it could have been 200-300K, maybe more. We don't have a vaccine for this, so if this 200-300K projection is right, we saved around approximately 200K lives. My personal belief is that 200K lives justifies what we did. But again, everyone's number is different based on what they believe. I will not argue with someone who says 2 is the number, or 2M is the number.

Although I don't think this is the case, but let's assume that without social distancing, the number of deaths would have been 80K. So, basically we save 20K lives. 20K lives is a lot, and someone I know and love could have been in that 20K. But a nationwide shutdown seems like overkill in the big picture for saving 20K of lives, most of which were probably people that weren't that healthy to start.

A vaccine changes everything. What would flu deaths be without vaccines? I am no doctor, but I think 50K would be more like 100-150K without the vaccine.

So, once we get a vaccine for this thing, we will at least half the deaths from it, if not more, which will eliminate the need for shutting down the world. Of course, vaccine plus social distancing would reduce it more, but I am not sure that anyone can argue that shutting down the economy for a long period of time is a good thing, and should be used only in extreme cases or if there is a great deal of uncertainty.

This is a polarizing debate - how many lives justify a significant economic response. There is a balance here, and no matter who makes the decision and when, there will be 50% of those who strongly disagree. The new America.

There will be other viruses that come out of wherever in the future - they will be unknown, and will kill many people. And the world will once again be unprepared, as we can't build a vaccine if we don't know what we are building it for. My greatest hope is that we are somewhat more prepared generally for these things in the future. The private sector, had they not been handcuffed by governmental red tape, would have solved both testing and probably vaccine at this point. There are people in labs at Universities and business all over the country that have spent their whole life getting ready for this. They are just better and probably smarter than most in public sector. And definitely more nimble. When these things happen, let the private sector take over, with reduced governmental BS.

I am sure many will not agree with some all or none of this, and that's OK. I am probably wrong on some of this and right on some.

 

[bodyforlife]

This is a polarizing debate

Yes it is, but you actually answered the question

cheersgif

 

[Enfuego]

he has nothing worth reading

been on my Ignore list after seeing his typical post...face)(*^%

He wanted to fight me last week in an empty parking lot. That's the kind of guy we're talking about. A guy wanting to fight an anonymous guy on a gambling forum in an empty parking lot is a fucking loon.

 

[TimmyRules]

He wanted to fight me last week in an empty parking lot. That's the kind of guy we're talking about. A guy wanting to fight an anonymous guy on a gambling forum in an empty parking lot is a fucking loon.

I’ve said it many times before, anxiety and other mental health issues are a serious matter that millions of folks suffer with and need help/understanding

I have no problem with silly/stupid-political/bad attempts at humor/ banter going back and forth but it shouldn’t go overboard .....

 

[Dave007inVegas]

Unfortunately (and I'm not surprised by this), I'm seeing either ad hominems or a lot of dodging of my original question.

I don't think from the start that anyone has disagreed that social distancing is effective (I don't need a lecture on mitigation). Clearly, if you isolate from others, you have less of a chance of catching any type of infectious disease. So that's a given. Once again, what I'm asking is if it is that effective and we can save a tremendous amount of lives doing it, why don't we always do it? I don't think I'll get a single answer from one of the doomsayers because they'd rather avoid that question.

[FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]Let me attempt to give you an answer. Over reaction.

We've had pandemics before...
SARS early 2000, West Nile virus 1974, Ebola 2013, 2014 and of course influenza (the common flu) every year.

As a country we have never until now went to such lengths to combat any of the above. Why is that?

Is it because in the past we trivialized life and now all of a sudden life has become important?

Is it because the human species has jumped a level in the evolutionary food chain?

It's none of the above. It's the audacity of some who think we can control mother nature.

They are the same people who will tell you if we don't change our way of living we're all going to die
in 12 years.

These people are bat shit (no pun intended) crazy and Trump fell for it.

So now that we've done what we could to lessen the spread and the amount of deaths it's time for reality to
set in.

If we don't stop believing in the boogieman and get on with our lives we're going to cause more damage than
the virus itself.

Pandemics come and go. People die. You would have thought by now we'd be used to it. [/FONT]

 

[Chi_Archie]

There will be other viruses that come out of wherever in the future - they will be unknown, and will kill many people. And the world will once again be unprepared, as we can't build a vaccine if we don't know what we are building it for. My greatest hope is that we are somewhat more prepared generally for these things in the future. The private sector, had they not been handcuffed by governmental red tape, would have solved both testing and probably vaccine at this point. There are people in labs at Universities and business all over the country that have spent their whole life getting ready for this. They are just better and probably smarter than most in public sector. And definitely more nimble. When these things happen, let the private sector take over, with reduced governmental BS.

I am sure many will not agree with some all or none of this, and that's OK. I am probably wrong on some of this and right on some.

great post

on this particular area. I do think in many areas we will be vastly more prepared. A big part of that will be that we will ahve stock piles of any possible PPE that hospitals, health care workers, and first responders will have access to.

its not just the PPE shortages that led to us trying to flatten the curve, Testing was slowed in part because we ran into shortages for things like the long cotton swab sticks ect. We will also build those up.

I think our leaders will beef up $ allocated to entities like CDC and infectious disease centers.

one of the biggest changes will be how the American people adapt to this.

we've seen and even continue to see a certain level of skepticism. Everyone rolled their eyes and said, "oh the media is making this scary, just like ebola, how did that turn out?"

I think people will be quicker to take any new threat a bit more serious, and understand how to do it.

no doubt there will be a percentage of people in the coming years that just point to this as some sort of false flag conspiracy hoax to further some powerful invisible groups power. and there will be a percentage of people that just think this was a bad flu and we over reacted, because social distancing did so well.

 

[bodyforlife]

Let me attempt to give you an answer. Over reaction.

We've had pandemics before...
SARS early 2000, West Nile virus 1974, Ebola 2013, 2014 and of course influenza (the common flu) every year.

As a country we have never until now went to such lengths to combat any of the above. Why is that?

Is it because in the past we trivialized life and now all of a sudden life has become important?

Is it because the human species has jumped a level in the evolutionary food chain?

It's none of the above. It's the audacity of some who think we can control mother nature.

They are the same people who will tell you if we don't change our way of living we're all going to die
in 12 years.

These people are bat shit (no pun intended) crazy and Trump fell for it.

So now that we've done what we could to lessen the spread and the amount of deaths it's time for reality to
set in.

If we don't stop believing in the boogieman and get on with our lives we're going to cause more damage than
the virus itself.

Pandemics come and go. People die. You would have thought by now we'd be used to it.

Talk to that Governor of yours so I can get you that steak dinner on May 1st cheersgif

 

[busterhyman]

Let me attempt to give you an answer. Over reaction.

We've had pandemics before...
SARS early 2000, West Nile virus 1974, Ebola 2013, 2014 and of course influenza (the common flu) every year.

As a country we have never until now went to such lengths to combat any of the above. Why is that?

Is it because in the past we trivialized life and now all of a sudden life has become important?

Is it because the human species has jumped a level in the evolutionary food chain?

It's none of the above. It's the audacity of some who think we can control mother nature.

They are the same people who will tell you if we don't change our way of living we're all going to die
in 12 years.

These people are bat shit (no pun intended) crazy and Trump fell for it.

So now that we've done what we could to lessen the spread and the amount of deaths it's time for reality to
set in.

If we don't stop believing in the boogieman and get on with our lives we're going to cause more damage than
the virus itself.

Pandemics come and go. People die. You would have thought by now we'd be used to it.

these people are bat shit crazy and trump fell for it....true dat

 

[Chi_Archie]

Let me attempt to give you an answer. Over reaction.

We've had pandemics before...
SARS early 2000, West Nile virus 1974, Ebola 2013, 2014 and of course influenza (the common flu) every year.

As a country we have never until now went to such lengths to combat any of the above. Why is that?

is there room for any possibility in your mind that this pandemic was more of a threat?

a reminder H1N1 killed 12,429 Americans in 2009-2010 with very little panic

with panic Covid19 killed the exact same #, 12,429 from last monday through sunday. 1 weeks worth of time.


but again

its not the body count that poses the biggest threat to Americans

its civil unrest, loss of civil servants, health care workers, supply chain workers leaving collapsed industries and severe shortages in medicine and food for many Americans

 

[Chi_Archie]

fill your freezer with meat, gonna be slim pickings for a month or two

* JBS USA said on Monday it is closing a beef plant in Greeley, Colorado, until April 24. The plant slaughters about 5,400 cattle a day, according to commodity firm Kerns and Associates, about 5% of the total U.S. daily slaughter.

* Smithfield Foods, the world’s biggest pork processor, on Sunday said it is indefinitely shutting a Sioux Falls, South Dakota, plant that produces about 4% to 5% of U.S. pork. The company, owned by China’s WH Group Ltd (0288.HK), warned plant shutdowns are pushing the United States “perilously close to the edge” in meat supplies for grocers.

* Tyson Foods Inc (TSN.N) said on Monday it is keeping a hog slaughterhouse in Columbus Junction, Iowa, closed this week. The company previously shut the plant the week of April 6 after more than 24 cases of COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the new coronavirus, involving employees at the facility.

* National Beef Packing Co suspended cattle slaughtering at an Iowa Premium beef plant in Tama, Iowa, until the week of April 20 after numerous employees tested positive for the virus, according to an announcement on its website. It had shut the plant during the week of April 6 for cleaning.
* Aurora Packing Company closed a beef plant in Aurora, Illinois, said Brad Lyle, chief financial officer for U.S. commodity firm Kerns and Associates. A security officer at the plant said it was closed due to the pandemic. The company did not respond to requests for comment.
* JBS USA shut a beef plant in Souderton, Pennsylvania, until April 16, after previously cutting production.
* Cargill Inc closed a plant in Hazleton, Pennsylvania, that produces meat for U.S. grocery stores.
* Harmony Beef in Alberta, Canada, shut its cattle slaughter operations on March 27 for two days, after a worker tested positive for the coronavirus, prompting some federal inspectors to stay away from the site.

* An Olymel pork plant in Yamachiche, Quebec, shut on March 29 for two weeks after nine workers tested positive for the coronavirus.
* Maple Leaf Foods (MFI.TO) suspended operations on April 8 at its Brampton, Ontario poultry plant, following three COVID-19 cases among workers at that facility.
* Sanderson Farms Inc (SAFM.O) reduced chicken production to 1 million birds a week from 1.3 million at a plant in Moultrie, Georgia.

 

[Dave007inVegas]

is there room for any possibility in your mind that this pandemic was more of a threat?

a reminder H1N1 killed 12,429 Americans in 2009-2010 with very little panic

with panic Covid19 killed the exact same #, 12,429 from last monday through sunday. 1 weeks worth of time.


but again

its not the body count that poses the biggest threat to Americans

its civil unrest, loss of civil servants, health care workers, supply chain workers leaving collapsed industries and severe shortages in medicine and food for many Americans

[FONT=Verdana,Tahoma,Arial,Calibri,Geneva,sans-serif]Maybe but so what? There are some things in our world we can't control.
The weather and mother nature come to mind.

All I'm saying is it's happened before and it will happen again.
There's nothing we can do about.

And for those who are hoping for a vaccine I say it's a waste of time.
The next virus will be different and we'll be back to square one.

So I say accept reality and get on with your life.

You're born and then eventually you die. Make the most of it in between.
[/FONT]

 

[Dave007inVegas]

Talk to that Governor of yours so I can get you that steak dinner on May 1st cheersgif

Not going to happen. It would be a waste of my time.

 

[Chi_Archie]

Maybe but so what? There are some things in our world we can't control.
The weather and mother nature come to mind.

All I'm saying is it's happened before and it will happen again.
There's nothing we can do about.

And for those who are hoping for a vaccine I say it's a waste of time.
The next virus will be different and we'll be back to square one.

So I say accept reality and get on with your life.

You're born and then eventually you die. Make the most of it in between.

yeah the larger context is that it isn't about actual body counts first, that is a secondary effect

it is about essential services, food industry, health services not being stretched to the point of breaking.

the food industry might be fucked for a few months anyways even with our mitigation efforts.


The generations alive today will for the first time have to learn to be uncomfortable and do with a decrease rather than an increase in luxury, recreation, and choices. I"m fine with that, and I think most here easily make the adjustment, but the younger entitled generations will struggle for awhile. Hopefully that's the worst of it, and we don't end up with riots in inner cities and jails and grocery stores needing a team of police officers patroling the the aisles. We just enough stupid sheep that very stupid, rash, irrationale, hysterical in tiny moments of crisis. And they could affect us all very much.

 

[Albatross]

is there room for any possibility in your mind that this pandemic was more of a threat?

a reminder H1N1 killed 12,429 Americans in 2009-2010 with very little panic

with panic Covid19 killed the exact same #, 12,429 from last monday through sunday. 1 weeks worth of time.


but again

its not the body count that poses the biggest threat to Americans

its civil unrest, loss of civil servants, health care workers, supply chain workers leaving collapsed industries and severe shortages in medicine and food for many Americans

Did you see the huge drop off of other deaths last week? Somehow this COVID has cured heart attacks, strokes, etc. Its truly remarkable

 

[Chi_Archie]

Did you see the huge drop off of other deaths last week? Somehow this COVID has cured heart attacks, strokes, etc. Its truly remarkable

I'd love to look at that data

can you link me to some?

 

[Chi_Archie]

nvermind I found some

thanks for this. I'm already immensely interested in Cardiac health and nutrition and love to track things like this. This will be very very interesting to track as we come out of this. no doubt we are going to see serious health issues accumulate as people put off procedures. I've scheduled multiple dental cleanings from late summer and mid autumn just in case already, I'm sure there will be a huge wait for dentist's in the coming month.s

[FONT=proxima_nova_rgregular]Editor's note: Find the latest COVID-19 news and guidance in Medscape's Coronavirus Resource Center.[/FONT]
[FONT=proxima_nova_rgregular]Neurologists across the country are reporting a drop in the number of acute stroke patients seeking emergency care during the COVID-19 pandemic ― suggesting that some patients may be intentionally staying home rather than risking coronavirus exposure at hospital emergency departments (EDs).[/FONT]
[FONT=proxima_nova_rgregular]Stroke specialists in New Orleans, Chicago, Seattle, and elsewhere told Medscape Medical News they are seeing a precipitous drop in the number of acute strokes at their institutions ― and not just in the number of milder cases. Doctors on Twitter are sharing similar reports and are using social media to highlight this issue.[/FONT]
[FONT=proxima_nova_rgregular]Gabriel Vidal, MD, a vascular and interventional neurologist at the Ochsner Medical Center, New Orleans, Louisiana, said there are "definitely" fewer patients with stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) seeking care at his facility and others throughout the New Orleans area, which has been hard hit by COVID-19.[/FONT]
[FONT=proxima_nova_rgregular]<iframe id="google_ads_iframe_/4312434/profpromo/medscpnewsdesktop_13" title="3rd party ad content" name="google_ads_iframe_/4312434/profpromo/medscpnewsdesktop_13" width="2" height="3" scrolling="no" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" frameborder="0" data-google-container-id="10" data-load-complete="true" style="box-sizing: border-box; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; vertical-align: bottom;"></iframe>

[/FONT]
[FONT=proxima_nova_rgregular]"Even in Louisiana, we have a very large 53-hospital telestroke network, and the number of consults has diminished greatly," Vidal added.[/FONT]
[FONT=proxima_nova_rgregular]In Chicago, emergency medical service activations for patients with suspected strokes are down about 30%, Shyam Prabhakaran, MD, professor and chair of neurology at the University of Chicago Biological Sciences, Illinois, told Medscape Medical News.[/FONT]
[FONT=proxima_nova_rgregular]"It appears to be that mild stroke and TIA patients may be more likely to stay at home and seek alternative care rather than come to the ED," Prabhakaran said. However, "the severe strokes may be less affected and continue to come to emergency departments."[/FONT]

 

[bengals34]

Yeah, who cares, people die. Just everyone go back to your lives.

 

[X-Files]

nvermind I found some

thanks for this. I'm already immensely interested in Cardiac health and nutrition and love to track things like this.

What have you learned re "Cardiac health and nutrition", in a nutshell? If you are interested in answering this, you may wish to create a new thread. Or perhaps there is already one here that i'm not aware of?

 

[Chi_Archie]

honestly not a ton of new stuff as there hasn't been a ton of intersection with covid19 and Cardiology until now.

My interest is from decade's previous.

was pre-med for about 3 sememesters before calc II , Organic Chem and Physics II weeded me out. Finished with Bio and Psych degree, went to grad school to become a physologist. spent 15 years in that field. Burned out at the same time as two immediate family members were hospitalized for Cardiac issues and dealt with for 3-4 years before dying. I read and read and read so much during that time period and from asking question. After that time I left my health sector jobs as I started my own business I slowly started taking classes to complete requirments towards becoming a physician's asst. Got too busy with work and stopped before getting halfway there. Now toying with idea of continuing on or pivoting toward's cardiac rehab. As I learned to improve my own cardiac health It became very enjoyable for me to learn on my own. It would be great to be able to do something that brings me joy to help others.

as far as Covid19 and Cardiac intersection. YOu hear about hyptertension and Covid19 being such a big correlation with higher death %'s

this is due to the a peptide called angiotensin hormones that binds to receptors in our body and cause a series of mechanisms that ultimately increase blood pressure. So people with high blood pressure are producing more of these, and thus we created Angiotensin inhibitor drugs to help bring people's blood pressure down (they are commonly called ACE inhibitors)

Covid19 attaches on the same receptors that Angiotensin does in order to get into our individual cells, this ultimately starts to amp up the angiotensin hormone production and effects, thus raising blood pressure. People don't understand how blood pressure damages just about every organ in our body. So at a time when your body needs to be working at peak level to fight of the novel virus that it discovers, it's organ systems that need to work in concert to attack the invader become compromised, leading to a reduced immune response as your body start to fight battles in the kidneys, liver, heart ect. while also trying to fight covid19 in the alveoli of the lungs.


there was some worry at first that ACE inhibitor use might amplify corona at first, many people heard some news reports and just quit their meds. More evidence has come up that says those blood pressure meds should help.

I would guess that thousand's of Americans are diagnosed with hypertension every day. They then make lifestyle changes and get medications, and many of them still die early deaths. over the last few weeks and months coming, i'm sure far less people are going for their regular check ups or going to the Doctor when they notice small cardiac things like racing heart rates, skipping beats, ect.

every day with untreated high blood pressure is weakening the body's ability to fight off covid in the coming year, not to mention the long term effects of kidney failure, heart attacks ect.

Rural areas in the south tend to have the highest rates of obsesity and heart disease, they also typicall have the longest drive to the nearest emergency care center. these hospitals are closing quite rapidly and making access even harder for many Americans. In the coming years we will see even bigger upticks in deaths to heart disease.

 

[bodyforlife]

I'm not sure precisely what you're asking here.

Then I can't help you. It's a very simple question. Stop polluting my thread by trying to direct people to your threads you attention whore.