...why don't we just do this all the time? I mean after all, we lose over 50k people yearly to the flu and over 17 million worldwide to infectious diseases. Clearly social distancing works. If we could cut those numbers in half, wouldn't that be a great way to go?
And if your answer is it's because we don't have a vaccine, then let's say one gets developed and we lose 150k-200k yearly to the corona virus with the vaccine. You good with that?
I think the real answer lies in that many leaders aren't really focused deep down on keeping the # of deaths down as a first order effect. Its the 2nd and 3rd order effects that spring from high infection and death rates in a short period of time that could ultimately lead to extreme civil unrest in many pockets. By and large the country is not rational, smart, and calm when dealing with any amount of fear, disruption to regular life, or adversity. This is all amplified by the media.
but to quickly speak to the deaths. I don't think we've had any highly contagious illness that has killed over 12k in 7 days in America in our lifetimes. And that was WITH schools and work shut down for most of America. So we do need to acknowledge that.
So without Mitigation.
1) For sure many hospitals would have faced severe consequences in revenue, supplies and and we would lose disproportionate amounts of nurses and doctors. Those are not easily replaced workers and we already have a shortage. some hospitals will be closing in rural areas after all this is over or close to over.
2) Supply chains. even with mitigation we will begin to see disruptions to our supplies in the coming months, it won't end quickly as there will be a lag effect, and the crucial pieces of our food supply chain is only beginning to see the virus spread to their areas in the rural areas. Expect a big back log on meat products as they just will not be able to process it quick enough, this will lead to hoarding ect.
3) Prison systems. This is big business, its also vital to keep them healthy as much as we disdain them as we do need to keep our most violent criminals off the street. Right now the most vulnerable populations to CV are Old folks in elderly care facilities, nurses, first responders, Police and first is prob Prison Guards ( fuk the criminals)
But without mitigation and release of white color criminals we for sure would have seen more riots. We already saw a little of that. Its not going to get better. In Chicago we have over 200 prison guards sick with corona currently. That is a scary situation, that is another job you can't just switch out 30% or more of your staff with brand new people off the street, even if you could get them to take the job.
