To Hedge or not to Hedge

[Kaveman]

Same math guys are the ones that never use common sense & can't find a date on Friday night because math has fried their brains......you ALWAYS hedge, gtfo with garbage about the math says not to hedge......stop reading what these math clowns say & use common sense!<br>
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If I play a "lottery" parlay, $50 8 team parlay paying $8,000 with Monday nights game left is an automatic $4,000 bet the other way.........guaranteed +$4,000, or don't you like guaranteed money? If not seek psychiatric help!<br>
<br>
I've hit a sweet parlay & scored on both bets on Monday night several years ago.......in 2011, week 4, I hit all my teams in the parlay, & my last was Tampa ML left on Monday night vs Colts, I bet half on the Colts +10.........BINGO, nailed the middle & won over 10k.<br>
<br>
I can sit here & argue why you should middle all day, but I'm done! <br>
<br>
End of the day, its about making a profit......if you don't like the concept of making money, can't help you.

<br>
<br>^^Exactly. It's all about math. If you're in this for action or greediness, you're automatically handicapped. And if you can't see something obvious like the above example, just forget betting. Look at it as a business and you're ahead of most of the guys out there. <br type="_moz">

 

[Kaveman]

Why include the MNF game if your plan is to hedge? Just make it a 7 team parlay. You don't have to think about hedging and you will make more profit because you don't have to pay the juice on the hedge for the 8th game. This argument has been on various forums for decades. Those who advocate hedging are always wrong and yet don't have the brain power to figure out why.

Jesus Christ. I give up. Best of luck.

 

[degen]

Jesus Christ. I give up. Best of luck.

I am just shocked that all the veteran gamblers don't know this. This is gambling 101 here folks. Good luck to you as well. I won't be discussing parlays anymore.

 

[Daigo23]

I am just shocked that all the veteran gamblers don't know this. This is gambling 101 here folks. Good luck to you as well. I won't be discussing parlays anymore.

Explain to me wtf does math have to do with guaranteed profit? And yes parlays ARE sucker bets but whatever floats your boat since you seem to be able to pick 5 teams to win every week.

 

[tmader7]

Do whatever makes you happy. I am not a smart man but the math guys will tell you hedging is not a good move.

Well, that certainly explains your handle. AND, you're obviously not smart at math, I happen to be, honors program at Vandy. IF you're down to the last play in a par, set to win 1K, you are one dumbass for not betting the other side for 500 to pocket a minimum of 450. No if's and's or but's. You show up at my single deck table in Vegas, I suggest you have a couple of body guards in tow.

~T~

 

[degen]

Well, that certainly explains your handle. AND, you're obviously not smart at math, I happen to be, honors program at Vandy. IF you're down to the last play in a par, set to win 1K, you are one dumbass for not betting the other side for 500 to pocket a minimum of 450. No if's and's or but's. You show up at my single deck table in Vegas, I suggest you have a couple of body guards in tow.

~T~

I bet you are the type to take insurance at the blackjack table.

 

[degen]

Explain to me wtf does math have to do with guaranteed profit? And yes parlays ARE sucker bets but whatever floats your boat since you seem to be able to pick 5 teams to win every week.

Here is an example copied from another forum:

six team parlay where all selections are -110 (1.91) is this:

Bet #1 $350 to win $318.18 (On win have $350+$318.18=$668.18)
Bet #2 $668.18 to win $607.44 (on win have $668.18+$607.44=$1275.62)
Bet #3 $1275.62 to win $1159.65 (on a win have $2435.27)
Bet #4 $2435.27 to win $2213.88 (on win have $4649.15)
Bet #5 $4649.15 to win $4226.50 (on a win have 8875.65)
Bet #6 $8875.65 to win $8068.77

Win all six and you have $16944 of which $350 was stake and $16,594 profit.

Now for yours all selections were probably not -110 which is why it is less. But what I'm pointing out is the same.

Understand all a parlay bet is, is a wager where your stake + win keeps getting rolled forward to the next play.

So adding another team you're going to hedge accomplishes nothing but locking in less money than you would have been paid if you didn't add that selection in the first place.

Back to my example:

Bet #5 $4649.15 to win $4226.50 (on a win have 8875.65)

At this point we had $8875.65. But we added another play of:

Bet #6 $8875.65 to win $8068.77

So to hedge this what we end up doing here is betting other side at -110 too staking $8875.65 so we have $16,944.42 return regardless who wins. Now in this case we've staked $350+$8875.65= $9,225.65. Our profit is $16,944.42 - $9,225.65 = -$7,718.77.

Again backing up to bet #5. Had we had never added team #6 we'd of had $8875.65 - $350 stake = $8,525.65

So by adding a team you didn't want to a $350 parlay and doing a 6 team parlay instead of a 5 team parlay without that team, you piss away $806.88 for absolutely no reason, other than lacked understanding of how parlays work.

So to answer your question no absolutely not standard to anyone who understands the very basics of betting - it is the opposite - foolish is adding that team in the first place.

 

[Brix22]

Jesus Christ. I give up. Best of luck.

Very funny, lol.

Amen.

That's why they make beer, whiskey and wine. I'll drink to that!

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Here is an example copied from another forum:

six team parlay where all selections are -110 (1.91) is this:

Bet #1 $350 to win $318.18 (On win have $350+$318.18=$668.18)
Bet #2 $668.18 to win $607.44 (on win have $668.18+$607.44=$1275.62)
Bet #3 $1275.62 to win $1159.65 (on a win have $2435.27)
Bet #4 $2435.27 to win $2213.88 (on win have $4649.15)
Bet #5 $4649.15 to win $4226.50 (on a win have 8875.65)
Bet #6 $8875.65 to win $8068.77

Win all six and you have $16944 of which $350 was stake and $16,594 profit.

Now for yours all selections were probably not -110 which is why it is less. But what I'm pointing out is the same.

Understand all a parlay bet is, is a wager where your stake + win keeps getting rolled forward to the next play.

So adding another team you're going to hedge accomplishes nothing but locking in less money than you would have been paid if you didn't add that selection in the first place.

Back to my example:

Bet #5 $4649.15 to win $4226.50 (on a win have 8875.65)

At this point we had $8875.65. But we added another play of:

Bet #6 $8875.65 to win $8068.77

So to hedge this what we end up doing here is betting other side at -110 too staking $8875.65 so we have $16,944.42 return regardless who wins. Now in this case we've staked $350+$8875.65= $9,225.65. Our profit is $16,944.42 - $9,225.65 = -$7,718.77.

Again backing up to bet #5. Had we had never added team #6 we'd of had $8875.65 - $350 stake = $8,525.65

So by adding a team you didn't want to a $350 parlay and doing a 6 team parlay instead of a 5 team parlay without that team, you piss away $806.88 for absolutely no reason, other than lacked understanding of how parlays work.

So to answer your question no absolutely not standard to anyone who understands the very basics of betting - it is the opposite - foolish is adding that team in the first place.

Do you know that there's about 10 early 1pm football games??? How the f**k does anyone bet your stupid method when all these games are going off at once........& most ofus are talking about vetting a $50/or $100 parlay, whether its 5 teams or 10 team parlay.....if we get lucky enough to hit the first 9 out of 10, its a freaking lottery ticket come true basically......or 4 of the first 5 games.

Stopping reading all the BS math logic of never hedging & start using common sense.

 

[tmader7]

Do you know that there's about 10 early 1pm football games??? How the f**k does anyone bet your stupid method when all these games are going off at once........& most ofus are talking about vetting a $50/or $100 parlay, whether its 5 teams or 10 team parlay.....if we get lucky enough to hit the first 9 out of 10, its a freaking lottery ticket come true basically......or 4 of the first 5 games.

Stopping reading all the BS math logic of never hedging & start using common sense.

Thank you CG, we need more common sense here.

~T~

 

[tmader7]

I bet you are the type to take insurance at the blackjack table.

NEVER. I play single deck only and am damn good at counting the cards. As stated, don't show up at my table, I have a horrible distaste for idiots.

~T~

 

[degen]

Do you know that there's about 10 early 1pm football games??? How the f**k does anyone bet your stupid method when all these games are going off at once........& most ofus are talking about vetting a $50/or $100 parlay, whether its 5 teams or 10 team parlay.....if we get lucky enough to hit the first 9 out of 10, its a freaking lottery ticket come true basically......or 4 of the first 5 games.

Stopping reading all the BS math logic of never hedging & start using common sense.

Why are you such an angry person? It is not my method, I don't bet parlays. I just provided you with the math of why you are an idiot. And you still want to argue with me? Hedging is for chumps and that might explain your love for it.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Why are you such an angry person? It is not my method, I don't bet parlays. I just provided you with the math of why you are an idiot. And you still want to argue with me? Hedging is for chumps and that might explain your love for it.

So in your world, you rather be a broke ass chump, that's my understanding of what you just typed......so the problem with you it seems is your ego.

Your ego won't allow you to hedge because you think if you've created a parlay, then its a super lock to hit, & no hedging will be done because in your simple mind, you're a chump.

Damn bookies locally & offshore must love taking your money........you place a nice parlay, & instead of collecting 2k profit, you're not a supposed chump & your ego tells you you're the best capper alive, & its gonna hit, so no hedging needed......LMAO!

Why am I mad??? Because when I'm conversing with an idiot that doesn't understand common sense & logic, it disturbs me......but then again, maybe you're retarded, so I will just let it go.

 

[tmader7]

.................

Here we go again, send in the clowns. CG, let it go, I'm getting there, LOL. Dumbasses don't know how to bet, that's their problem, not ours.

~T~

 

[degen]

If you are inclined to hedge, then you are better off leaving the game off altogether. Then if you hit the other legs of the parlay, you can take your some/all/none of your winnings and put it on the last game.

I agree with above though, if you stand to win a substantially higher amount than you are used to, taking some profit might be wise. I would also look for a spot to arb it and win both ends, if possible.

But, the so called "experts" will tell you that if you are putting yourself in a spot where you are considering hedging, you are doing it wrong from the get go.

:smoking:

You seem like the only person on here with a functioning brain. Hey Computer Group, do you agree with what this guy said? Is he a jackass?

 

[degen]

.................

Here we go again, send in the clowns. CG, let it go, I'm getting there, LOL. Dumbasses don't know how to bet, that's their problem, not ours.

~T~

Keep hedging and playing teasers gentlemen. You will make it to the top. I wonder what a real bookie has to say about this. My bookie said he would love you 2 idiots as his customers.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

.................

Here we go again, send in the clowns. CG, let it go, I'm getting there, LOL. Dumbasses don't know how to bet, that's their problem, not ours.

~T~

Lol......oh, I'm done.

 

[justanobserver]

I think both of you are right. But what degen doesnt understand is that people here whether smart or not smart play small risk big reward parlays hoping to catch a big win. Now the odds are not on your side in this but if you are pretty good at picking winners you can hit a few big ones during the year and make a profit.

So here's the scenario that most people are talking about (this is a parlay i hit a couple weeks back):

Wager Type:	Parlay (5 team)
Wager Status:	Win
Risk / To Win Amount:	25.00 / 662.63 (USD) Accepted 11/26/2015 11:42 AM - EST
Won:	662.63
Amount Paid:	662.63
Item #1
Wager Type:	Total
Outcome:	Win
Sport / Period:	NFL Football / Game
Selection:	Philadelphia Eagles/Detroit Lions 11/26/2015 12:30:01 PM - (EST) Over 46½ -110
Item #2
Wager Type:	Spread
Outcome:	Win
Sport / Period:	NFL Football / Game
Selection:	Detroit Lions 11/26/2015 12:30:01 PM - (EST) -3 +100
Item #3
Wager Type:	Spread
Outcome:	Win
Sport / Period:	NFL Football / Game
Selection:	Carolina Panthers 11/26/2015 4:30:01 PM - (EST) pk -110
Item #4
Wager Type:	Total
Outcome:	Win
Sport / Period:	NFL Football / Game
Selection:	Carolina Panthers/Dallas Cowboys 11/26/2015 4:30:01 PM - (EST) Over 44 -113
Item #5
Wager Type:	Spread
Outcome:	Win
Sport / Period:	NFL Football / Game
Selection:	Chicago Bears 11/26/2015 8:30:01 PM - (EST) +7½ -105

This was Thanksgiving and if this was the only wager i had going at the time that smart wager would've been to bet the GB money line for some amount to guarantee myself some sort of profit and to also create a middle.

We all agree that placing wagers like the ones above are not consistently "smart" plays. Obviously had i had the foresight to just bet these games one by one (which i did in different forms) and take some of the profits into each of the next games i couldve won the same amount of money, i don't think anyone here is arguing that. The point TCG is trying to make is that once you get yourself in this position it is stupid not to hedge that bet for at least something, and create a middle if you can.

 

[justanobserver]

BTW i am not advocating for stretching parlay's across multiple time frames as i rarely do that, but i am advocating for hedging when it can guarantee you a profit.

 

[JackStraw420]

So in your world, you rather be a broke ass chump, that's my understanding of what you just typed......so the problem with you it seems is your ego.

Your ego won't allow you to hedge because you think if you've created a parlay, then its a super lock to hit, & no hedging will be done because in your simple mind, you're a chump.

Damn bookies locally & offshore must love taking your money........you place a nice parlay, & instead of collecting 2k profit, you're not a supposed chump & your ego tells you you're the best capper alive, & its gonna hit, so no hedging needed......LMAO!

Why am I mad??? Because when I'm conversing with an idiot that doesn't understand common sense & logic, it disturbs me......but then again, maybe you're retarded, so I will just let it go.

That's NOT what he's saying at all. He's saying don't have the last leg on the parlay to begin with, and then you don't have to hedge it!! Then, you take some, or ALL of your profit and still play it on the last leg if you want.

YES, if you ALREADY have a parlay with ONE GAME left and stand to win a substantial (relative to your normal wagers) amount of money, TAKE THE PROFIT. Nothing wrong with that at all. But you stand to win MORE if you just leave that last game OFF (assuming the last leg is a "free standing" game and all other legs would be completed).

You do seem angry and are having a really tough time comprehending what is trying to be conveyed here. Not sure why, but BOL. I mean if you are regularly betting parlays and raking in profit year in, year out, more power to you. But if you are going to ignore a way to get a little bit more of an edge on the books, you might be missing out.

:smoking: