To Hedge or not to Hedge

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Return on investment.

But seriously, a serious gambler should know this shit innately. If not, you're setting yourself to get more burned than just the standard book hit.
 

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Several years ago, I was betting parlays thru my friends account......well 3 str weeks we needed the Monday night game, all 3 parlays were paying over 3k each...... We only invested like $25/$50 each parlay.

I told him to hedge for $1,000, he didn't listen to me in any parlay, we were partners, well we lost all 3 parlays, % never hedged, that pissed me off, & I don't do shit with him when it comes to gambling anymore.......he had over 5k in his account, its not like he didn't have the money.

You ALWAYS hedge! Its the most sure way you will make money betting sports.
 

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No ifs and or buts about it; the name of the game is to WIN. Well, that's my philosophy anyway.

It can get a little tricky, though, if the lines changes, changes dramatically.

Lots of scenarios, but always go back to the first.
 

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I'm pissed. I should have hedged. It was a big swing in profit.

I'm more pissed because it didnt even cross my damn mind to hedge. smdh!
 

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Whats the difference? Give me explanations for both spread and ML

Lets say you had the ML for the fav to hit... You can hedge for the dog spread and hope to hit both. You can always take in game wager if book offers it or HT wager for last spot to hedge.
 

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Also don't get caught up in parlays...they are sucker bets and if you must...do 2-3 teamers.
 

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Lets say you had the ML for the fav to hit... You can hedge for the dog spread and hope to hit both. You can always take in game wager if book offers it or HT wager for last spot to hedge.

i see. Thanks

Also don't get caught up in parlays...they are sucker bets and if you must...do 2-3 teamers.
It was only 2. I dont do anything more than 3 and usually if its 3 its a teaser
 

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Several years ago, I was betting parlays thru my friends account......well 3 str weeks we needed the Monday night game, all 3 parlays were paying over 3k each...... We only invested like $25/$50 each parlay.

I told him to hedge for $1,000, he didn't listen to me in any parlay, we were partners, well we lost all 3 parlays, % never hedged, that pissed me off, & I don't do shit with him when it comes to gambling anymore.......he had over 5k in his account, its not like he didn't have the money.

You ALWAYS hedge! Its the most sure way you will make money betting sports.

NO! This is not why you hedge. This is why you don't even put the game on there in the first place!! Then you can decide how much of your winnings to roll onto the last game, or just pass on it.

I get taking the guaranteed profit, and I've done it before myself. I might again on my Clemson future, we'll see. But if you are doing a multi-game parlay, don't add a last game that is later than night, or the next day, etc. Leave it OFF!!
 

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I don't know, I'm sure there are times to do it. But I guess the bottom line for me is that if you think you might hedge down the line, might be beneficial to just leave it off.
 

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NO! This is not why you hedge. This is why you don't even put the game on there in the first place!! Then you can decide how much of your winnings to roll onto the last game, or just pass on it.

I get taking the guaranteed profit, and I've done it before myself. I might again on my Clemson future, we'll see. But if you are doing a multi-game parlay, don't add a last game that is later than night, or the next day, etc. Leave it OFF!!

Exactly. The folks advising to hedge just haven't looked at the math. My advice is to never hedge any bet.
 

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Also don't get caught up in parlays...they are sucker bets and if you must...do 2-3 teamers.

You haven't done the math either. If you can pick winners, parlays are not the sucker bets you think they are.
 

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i see. Thanks


It was only 2. I dont do anything more than 3 and usually if its 3 its a teaser

up there you said it was 500 to win 5000... This just isn't possible with a 2 team parlay lol. Unless maybe you parlayed Texas ncaaf money line with something. Lol

But if it was a 2 team parlay then you never hedge. Unless of course it was some crazy +1000 dog mL and that first one hit. Can you just give us the exact wager and amounts so we can understand better.
 

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You haven't done the math either. If you can pick winners, parlays are not the sucker bets you think they are.

Uh, yeah, the problem is that it's hard enough to pick one winner. Picking multiple ones, even with the inflated or deflated teaser lines is far more mathematically difficult. That's why they're called sucker bets, and the payouts are so generous, to entice said suckers.
 

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Uh, yeah, the problem is that it's hard enough to pick one winner. Picking multiple ones, even with the inflated or deflated teaser lines is far more mathematically difficult. That's why they're called sucker bets, and the payouts are so generous, to entice said suckers.

They are not sucker bets if the parlays pay true odds. Just higher variance. You also need to be a winning picker which very few are.
 

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Always hedge.i do about 3rd of my bet.sorry but you are not that smart.
 

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Do whatever makes you happy. I am not a smart man but the math guys will tell you hedging is not a good move.




Same math guys are the ones that never use common sense & can't find a date on Friday night because math has fried their brains......you ALWAYS hedge, gtfo with garbage about the math says not to hedge......stop reading what these math clowns say & use common sense!

If I play a "lottery" parlay, $50 8 team parlay paying $8,000 with Monday nights game left is an automatic $4,000 bet the other way.........guaranteed +$4,000, or don't you like guaranteed money? If not seek psychiatric help!

I've hit a sweet parlay & scored on both bets on Monday night several years ago.......in 2011, week 4, I hit all my teams in the parlay, & my last was Tampa ML left on Monday night vs Colts, I bet half on the Colts +10.........BINGO, nailed the middle & won over 10k.

I can sit here & argue why you should middle all day, but I'm done!

End of the day, its about making a profit......if you don't like the concept of making money, can't help you.
 

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If I play a "lottery" parlay, $50 8 team parlay paying $8,000 with Monday nights game left is an automatic $4,000 bet the other way.........guaranteed +$4,000, or don't you like guaranteed money? If not seek psychiatric help!

Why include the MNF game if your plan is to hedge? Just make it a 7 team parlay. You don't have to think about hedging and you will make more profit because you don't have to pay the juice on the hedge for the 8th game. This argument has been on various forums for decades. Those who advocate hedging are always wrong and yet don't have the brain power to figure out why.
 

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