Smith is solid and should have the Chiefs at .500 or better which is an accomplishment, but how many game managers win the Super Bowl? That's the ultimate goal and San Francisco saw a potential superstar in Kaepernick... and he is going to be a superstar in the playoffs again when he's able to bolt on designed runs.
People need to realize the 49ers offense is held back quite a bit right now because Harbaugh doesn't want him running unless absolutely necessary. Look at RG3 last year or Vick or any of the running quarterbacks... they just don't last. Kaepernick has a nice arm and can be successful without running but right now, this week especially, all of his passing weapons are gone.
What really killed the 49ers this week was Harbaugh's inability to utilize Gore who was tearing apart the Colts' weak defense. He kept dialing up pass after pass because the Colts started to key on the run, but it turned out to be the wrong move since no one on the 49ers could create separation at the receiver spots. Boldin is excellent but he makes plays with his hands and not his separation, and without Vernon Davis to draw off double coverage he's not nearly as effective.
The 49ers are just fine and will win plenty of games and are the odds on choice to win the Super Bowl this season in my opinion. Their defense plays better with the lead and that hasn't been there the last few weeks with the offense a bit handcuffed because of injuries and inability to utilize Kaep's best assets.
Smith is a solid quarterback but he's a game manager and outside of Trent Dilfer one season those guys rarely do much in the playoffs.
You explained above WHY he is going nowhere in a hurry. The running QB's don't last. Period. The NFL is full of HIGHLY INTELLIGENT coaches and analysts. They pick apart these offenses, find the weaknesses, and EXPLOIT it to the hilt. As you said Kaepernick has a "nice" arm. Nice doesn't cut it. Mark Sanchez has a nice arm. So does Kyle Orton. How's that working out? LOL
Kaepernick has skills. I'm not arguing that. The idea that he just needs his receivers back and all will be well is a joke though. This guy does NOT have the cerebral skills to be an elite NFL QB. At least not yet. I DO BELIEVE he could develop those skills, but it's going to take some time and some serious losses (you learn more from your failures than successes). Given his early success and Harbaugh's obvious lack of patience, I'm betting that he will crash and burn and be a backup within 3 to 4 years tops. You could see how frazzled he was yesterday trying read the defense when his receivers weren't wide open. He was LOST! And that was INDY. Not a terrible defense but certainly not a top level one. Seattle made him look incompetent. Chad Henne played twice as good yesterday as Kaepernick did against them.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think S.F. is going anywhere. "Might" make the playoffs, but won't make any real noise. Seattle will kill them. N.O. would beat them, Chicago would probably chew them up with their defense as well. Yes it's early and a LONG way to go till January (injuries, etc..), but the future isn't looking too bright for S.F. unless Kaepernick learns to use his brain better IN A HURRY.