Thursday 9/8/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Brewers (62-77) at Cardinals (73-65)

Game: 1
Venue: Busch Stadium
Date: September 08, 2016 7:15 PM EDT

There aren't many teams that the St. Louis Cardinals have been able to beat at Busch Stadium this year.

One of them is coming to town for the next four games, which might be the boost St. Louis needs as it fights for one of two National League wild-card spots with San Francisco and the New York Mets.

The Cardinals welcome the Milwaukee Brewers for the opener of a four-game series Thursday night. St. Louis is 30-37 at home but 5-1 against Milwaukee, including a three-game sweep July 1-3.

Although they went 5-4 on a nine-game road trip, the Cardinals (73-65) ended it with a 4-3 loss Wednesday night to Pittsburgh, enabling the surging Mets to tie them for the second wild-card spot. Both teams are a half-game behind the Giants, which blew a ninth inning lead at Colorado Wednesday night and fell 6-5.

Had St. Louis delivered a bit better with runners in scoring position in its series finale against the Pirates, it could have overtaken the Giants. But it instead went 3-for-14, failing to add on to its first inning run after the first three hitters singled, hitting into a double play with the bases loaded in the fourth and leaving Yadier Molina stranded in the eighth after his leadoff double.

"We had chances, lot of chances, but we didn't execute in certain situations and it cost us," Cardinals manager Mike Matheny said.

What's more, St. Louis saw its streak of games with a homer end at 25, which tied a National League record set earlier this year by San Diego.

While St. Louis lost a game it could have won, the Brewers (62-77) were taking two of three from the Chicago Cubs, including a 2-1 verdict Wednesday night that saw third baseman Jonathan Villar homer twice.

Chicago's magic number dropped to nine in the National League Central, but Milwaukee battled in the series as though it was pushing for a postseason berth.

"That felt like a real baseball game, like one you're on the edge of your seat the whole game," Brewers manager Craig Counsell said. "It was a game you're hanging on every pitch, literally."

Milwaukee gives the ball to right-hander Junior Guerra (7-3, 2.85 ERA) for the series opener. Guerra, who dropped his only start this year against the Cardinals, just returned from a disabled list stint against Pittsburgh on Saturday, throwing 3 1/3 scoreless innings before leaving after reaching 70 pitches.

St. Louis counters with lefty Jaime Garcia (10-11, 4.41), who's dropped his last three starts, although he pitched well for six innings in a 9-1 setback at Cincinnati on Saturday. Garcia is 2-1 in three starts this year against the Brewers with both wins coming at home.

St. Louis leads the season series 11-4, and is 59-28 against Milwaukee since the 2012 season's beginning.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Reds (57-81) at Pirates (68-69)

Game: 1
Venue: PNC Park
Date: September 08, 2016 7:05 PM EDT

PITTSBURGH -- Music was blaring in the Pittsburgh Pirates clubhouse late Wednesday night.

That's not all that unusual, but it seemed just a little louder than normal, and the players seemed more upbeat.

That's because they not only avoided a sweep by St. Louis, but also ended an eight-game losing streak with a 4-3 victory against the Cardinals.

That will allow the Pirates to go into a four-game home series against the Cincinnati Reds starting Thursday without that skid hanging over them.

Pittsburgh manager Clint Hurdle preaches the day-at-a-time approach as much as anyone, but seemed as relieved as anyone.

"Absolutely," he said, smiling. "You play to win. You want to play well, and you have a process we follow (but) winning's better than losing. I've figured that much out."

Hurdle is one win shy of becoming the sixth Pirates manager in history to reach 500 wins with the club.

For the first time in several days, the Pirates are in a better spot then their opponent. Pittsburgh (68-69) can get back to .500 with a strong weekend and still has a shot at the postseason, trailing St. Louis -- which holds the second wild-card spot -- by 4 1/2 games.

Cincinnati has lost four in a row and eight of 10 and is playing out the season.

The Reds on Wednesday lost at home 6-3 to New York, giving the Mets a three-game sweep. Cincinnati is 57-81 but has played Pittsburgh close. The Pirates hold a 6-5 edge in 11 meetings and outscored the Reds by only 40-39.

Cincinnati made three outs on the bases early and missed a lot of opportunities Wednesday against the Mets. Manager Bryan Price describes that as atypical, even for his underachieving club.

In fact, Price guaranteed better performances at PNC Park.

"When you're (this) far under .500, to have regular games like this as a regular part of what we're doing would make it a way more challenging season than it already is," Price told MLB.com. "Guys, for the most part, have really played hard and played relatively to their ability and sometimes beyond. (Wednesday) will be something we don't see for a long time. I'm confident in that. This isn't our typical game by any means. We will certainly play better in Pittsburgh."

The Reds had runners on base in every inning Wednesday but stranded 12, going 3-for-13 with runners in scoring position.

"It's a tough series, but hopefully we get back on track against Pittsburgh and try to finish the season strong," Anthony DeSclafani, who took the loss Wednesday, told MLB.com.

Right-hander Dan Straily (11-7, 3.83 ERA) is scheduled to start Thursday for Cincinnati. He's already made a career-high 29 appearances and makes his career-high 28th start. He is 2-1 with a 3.23 ERA in seven appearances (four starts) against Pittsburgh.

The Pirates counter with right-hander Ivan Nova (11-6, 4.34).

Nova is 4-0 with a 2.89 ERA in his first six starts since Pittsburgh acquired him from the Yankees on Aug. 1. He allowed two runs in six innings in a no-decision Saturday against Milwaukee in his last start.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Rockies (67-72) at Padres (57-82)

Game: 1
Venue: PETCO Park
Date: September 08, 2016 10:10 PM EDT

SAN DIEGO -- The Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres meet in a four-game series at Petco Park this weekend, and the Thursday night opener features two pitchers at the opposite ends of their career.

Veteran Clayton Richard, who turns 33 next Monday, will be making his sixth start in his second tour with the Padres. It will be the 202nd appearance of his major league career.

Rockies rookie Jeff Hoffman, 23, will be making his fourth-ever major league start.

The pitchers have one thing in common other than their identical

6-foot-5 heights.

Both are pitching with an eye for a job in 2017.

The Padres and the Rockies are looking to the future, using the final month of the season as an audition.

The San Diego rotation needs a major overhaul going into the 2017 season. Right now, only right-hander Luis Perdomo seems to have a lock on a starting spot going into spring training. Right-hander Tyson Ross would have a spot locked ... if his most recent appearance weren't the season opener.

"We're looking at everyone on this roster with an eye on 2017," said manager Andy Green, who committed the Padres to a six-man rotation for the final month of the season until right-hander Jarred Cosart sustained both a right groin strain and a right hamstring strain on the same play while covering first base Wednesday night.

Will San Diego stick with a six-man rotation? Not if Cosart is out.

"To have a six-man rotation, you need six starting pitchers," Green said Wednesday night while saying the severity of Cosart's injury won't be known until later in the week. Hint: Cosart will miss at least one start.

Which could be good news for Richard, who is the Padres' hottest starter at the moment. Since signing with San Diego on Aug. 1 as a free agent, Richard is 1-2 with a 1.48 ERA in six appearances (four starts). Adding in 25 relief outings for the Chicago Cubs earlier this year, he is 1-3 with a 3.29 ERA overall.

Over his past three starts, Richard has allowed one earned run on 19 hits and five walks with 12 strikeouts in 18 innings. That is a 0.50 ERA.

"I'm really happy to be back in San Diego," Richard said. "I'd love to stay and help their vision for the future."

Actually, Richard might be perfect for the role. Green has said that part of his development plan for the young Padres is to have a select corps of veterans to provide guidance. A former University of Michigan quarterback who was with the Padres from 2009 to 2013, Richard is seen as a strong leader.

"It's been great having him around," said Christian Friedrich, another left-handed member of the current San Diego rotation.

As for Hoffman, he is 0-2 with a 6.60 ERA in his first three starts for the Rockies. Thursday night could be different, though. The Padres will be the first major league team that Hoffman faces that is not in first place.

"He's faced a tough schedule while getting his feet on the ground,"

Rockies manager Walt Weiss said of Hoffman.

Before being promoted to the Rockies, Hoffman was 6-9 with a 4.02 ERA in 22 starts for Triple-A Albuquerque. Hoffman, who is two years removed from Tommy John surgery, was ranked among the top 50 prospects in the minor leagues this season.

The right-hander was part of the package the Rockies received last year in the trade that sent reliever LaTroy Hawkins and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki to the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Padres are 7-5 against the Rockies thus far this season with a

4-2 edge at Petco Park.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Rangers (83-57) at Mariners (71-68)

Game: 4
Venue: Safeco Field
Date: September 08, 2016 10:10 PM EDT

SEATTLE -- While the Texas Rangers continue rolling toward the postseason and the possibility of finishing with the best record in the American League, the Seattle Mariners are on the verge of playing for the future.

Sitting 11 1/2 games behind the Rangers in the AL West and four behind Baltimore in the wild-card race, Seattle (71-68) has one eye on evaluation as the Mariners close out a once-promising season. One of the questions at the top of the list involves young starters Taijuan Walker and James Paxton, neither of whom have done a lot to impress the first-year regime of general manager Jerry Dipoto and manager Scott Servais.

The 24-year-old Walker, once considered the top prospect in Seattle's organization, will get another shot in Thursday's series finale against the Rangers (83-57).

Walker began this season as the No. 2 starter behind Felix Hernandez but fell so far out of favor that he did an August stint at Triple-A Tacoma. He turned in a couple of decent outings after getting recalled, but Walker's three-homer debacle in less than an inning his last time out might have the organization rethinking his future as a front-line starter.

Another Seattle starter who has a lot to prove is 27-year-old rookie Ariel Miranda, who turned in the best start of his career in beating the Rangers on Wednesday. Miranda He held the mighty Texas lineup to three runs (all unearned) and three hits in six innings.

"Obviously, the team helped me out a lot with some runs early," Miranda, who took an 8-0 lead into the fifth inning, said through an interpreter, "and that made it easy for me to be aggressive."

Walker's start is one of the few lingering storylines for the Mariners, who made up a game in the wild-card race Wednesday night but still has a lot of teams to pass on the way to the finish line.

Texas, on the other hand, is still trying to win the top seed in the AL and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Rangers still hold a two-game lead over Cleveland but can't afford to lose too many more games against inferior teams from the division down the stretch.

Wednesday's game saw Texas turn in another rough outing from its starting pitcher, only this time the offense couldn't pick him up. A.J. Griffin gave up five runs in the first inning, and by the time the Rangers finally got on the board with Carlos Beltran's three-run homer in the sixth, Texas was trailing 8-3.

Afterward, manager Jeff Banister was already eager to turn the page toward Thursday's series finale.

"Obviously, we need to come out and play good baseball, put another win on the board and move on to (the weekend series in) Anaheim," he said.

Thursday's series finale also marks the final times these two teams will meet this season. Texas has already won the season series, as the Rangers take a 12-6 advantage into Thursday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Thursday’s games

National League

Phillies @ Nationals
Asher was 0-6, 9.31 in seven MLB starts LY; he is 4-2, 2.37 in 12 minor league starts this year.

Cole is 1-1, 3.86 in three starts this year (under 2-1).

Phillies lost nine of last 12 games, are 6-4 in last 10 road series openers. Under is 8-2 in their last ten games. Washington won seven of last nine games with last three going over; they are 13-9 in home series openers.

Reds @ Pirates
Straily is 8-1, 2.95 in his last ten starts; six of his last seven went over. Reds are 6-6 in his road starts.

Nova is 4-0, 2.89 in six starts for the Pirates (under 4-2).

Reds lost eight of last 10 games, are 7-15 in road series openers. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Pittsburgh lost eight of last nine games, is 2-6 in last eight home series openers. Four of last five Pirate games went over the total.

Brewers @ Cardinals
Guerra is 4-2, 2.09 in his last nine starts (under 7-2). Milwaukee is 6-2 in his road starts.

Garcia is 0-3, 6.88 in his last three starts; his last four went over. St Louis is 5-9 in his home starts.

Brewers won six of last seven games, are 6-15 in road series openers. Four of their last five games went over. St Louis won three of last four games, is 5-1 in last six home series openers. Under is 7-5 in their last dozen games.

Rockies @ Padres
Hoffman is 0-2, 7.80 in three MLB starts (over 2-1).

Richard is 1-1, 1.50 in his last three starts; all four of his starts this year stayed under.

Rockies lost four of last five games, are 4-11 in last 15 road series openers. Over is 7-3 in their last ten road games. San Diego lost 11 of last 15 games; they’re 13-9 in home series openers. Four of last five Padre games stayed under the total.


American League

Rays @ New York
Cobb allowed two runs in five IP (84 PT) in his first ’16 start.

Sabathia is 1-2, 2.75 in his last three starts (under 3-0); NY got shut out in his last two starts. Bronx is 1-5 in his last six home starts.

Rays lost three of last four games, are 6-14 in road series openers. Over is 9-2-1 in Tampa’s last 12 road games. New York won five of its last six home games, is 8-0 in last eight home series openers. Five of last six NY games stayed under the total.

Rangers @ Mariners
Holland is 2-1, 1.50 in his last three starts; three of his last four stayed under. Texas is 3-6 in his road starts.

Walker is 0-4, 10.38 in his last five starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Seattle is 6-6 in his home starts.

Rangers won eight of last 11 games; last nine Texas games went over the total. Seattle lost 11 of last 15 games; over is 15-5 in their last 20 games.

Astros @ Indians
Paulino is making his MLB debut here; he was 0-2, 3.86 in three AAA starts before being called up- he started this year in A ball.

Bauer is 3-1, 3.05 in his last six starts; under is 7-2 in his last nine. Indians won his last four home starts.

Astros are 13-5 in last 18 games; five of Astros’ last seven road games went over. Cleveland won eight of its last ten home games; under is 7-4 in their last 11 games.


Teams’ record when this pitcher starts:

Phil-Wsh: Asher 0-0; Cole 1-2
Cin-Pitt: Straily 16-10; Nova 5-1/7-8
Mil-StL: Guerra 12-6; Garcia 13-14
Col-SD: Hoffman 0-3; Richard 2-2

Hst-Clev: Paulino 0-0; Bauer 13-10
TB-NY: Cobb 1-0; Sabathia 12-13
Tex-Sea: Holland 10-7; Walker 7-13


# of time pitcher allows 1+ runs in first inning:

Phil-Wsh: Asher 0-0; Cole 0-3
Cin-Pitt: Straily 7-26; Nova 5-21
Mil-StL: Guerra 4-18; Garcia 11-27
Col-SD: Hoffman 2-3; Richard 0-4

Hst-Clev: Paulino 0-0; Bauer 7-23
TB-NY: Cobb 1-1; Sabathia 5-25
Tex-Sea: Holland 2-17; Walker 4-20


Teams’ records in first five innings:

Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/7
Arizona 24-36-11…..27-36-5…….51-71
Atlanta 27-36-11…..21-31-13……48-67
Cubs 35-24-9……43-21-8…….78-45
Reds 18-41-8……31-35-5…….49-76
Colo 25-30-12…..33-34-4…….58-64
LA 27-29-9……46-21-8…….72-50
Miami 30-30-10…..30-23-16……60-53
Milw 20-38-8……40-24-10…..60-62
Mets 29-42-9……33-26-11…….62-58
Philly 23-31-16…..24-32-13……47-61
Pitt 20-36-12…..41-24-5……61-59
St. Louis 33-31-7……27-28-12……60-59
SD 22-46-4…..30-32-6……..52-78
SF 32-33-7…….34-20-13…….66-53
Wash 36-22-14….28-20-19……64-42

Orioles 26-35-9…….36-27-8……..62-62
Boston 29-28-11……43-18-9…….72-46
White Sox 31-31-9……36-29-4………67-60
Cleveland 35-26-7……34-29-6……..69-55
Detroit 30-32-9…….30-31-4……..60-63
Astros 29-32-11…..32-26-7……..61-58
KC 27-35-11……28-25-13……55-60
Angels 30-37-7…….24-30-11……54-67
Twins 25-35-12…….25-36-12…..50-71
NYY 23-38-8……32-29-10……55-67
A’s 22-38-8……26-33-13…….48-70
Seattle 31-29-9……32-25-12…….63-54
Tampa Bay 22-29-11……32-33-12……54-62
Texas 26-36-9…….35-24-9……61-60
Toronto 42-24-5……..38-27-4……80-51

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Thursday’s games

National League

Phillies @ Nationals
Asher was 0-6, 9.31 in seven MLB starts LY; he is 4-2, 2.37 in 12 minor league starts this year.

Cole is 1-1, 3.86 in three starts this year (under 2-1).

Phillies lost nine of last 12 games, are 6-4 in last 10 road series openers. Under is 8-2 in their last ten games. Washington won seven of last nine games with last three going over; they are 13-9 in home series openers.

Reds @ Pirates
Straily is 8-1, 2.95 in his last ten starts; six of his last seven went over. Reds are 6-6 in his road starts.

Nova is 4-0, 2.89 in six starts for the Pirates (under 4-2).

Reds lost eight of last 10 games, are 7-15 in road series openers. Under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Pittsburgh lost eight of last nine games, is 2-6 in last eight home series openers. Four of last five Pirate games went over the total.

Brewers @ Cardinals
Guerra is 4-2, 2.09 in his last nine starts (under 7-2). Milwaukee is 6-2 in his road starts.

Garcia is 0-3, 6.88 in his last three starts; his last four went over. St Louis is 5-9 in his home starts.

Brewers won six of last seven games, are 6-15 in road series openers. Four of their last five games went over. St Louis won three of last four games, is 5-1 in last six home series openers. Under is 7-5 in their last dozen games.

Rockies @ Padres
Hoffman is 0-2, 7.80 in three MLB starts (over 2-1).

Richard is 1-1, 1.50 in his last three starts; all four of his starts this year stayed under.

Rockies lost four of last five games, are 4-11 in last 15 road series openers. Over is 7-3 in their last ten road games. San Diego lost 11 of last 15 games; they’re 13-9 in home series openers. Four of last five Padre games stayed under the total.


American League

Rays @ New York
Cobb allowed two runs in five IP (84 PT) in his first ’16 start.

Sabathia is 1-2, 2.75 in his last three starts (under 3-0); NY got shut out in his last two starts. Bronx is 1-5 in his last six home starts.

Rays lost three of last four games, are 6-14 in road series openers. Over is 9-2-1 in Tampa’s last 12 road games. New York won five of its last six home games, is 8-0 in last eight home series openers. Five of last six NY games stayed under the total.

Rangers @ Mariners
Holland is 2-1, 1.50 in his last three starts; three of his last four stayed under. Texas is 3-6 in his road starts.

Walker is 0-4, 10.38 in his last five starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Seattle is 6-6 in his home starts.

Rangers won eight of last 11 games; last nine Texas games went over the total. Seattle lost 11 of last 15 games; over is 15-5 in their last 20 games.

Astros @ Indians
Paulino is making his MLB debut here; he was 0-2, 3.86 in three AAA starts before being called up- he started this year in A ball.

Bauer is 3-1, 3.05 in his last six starts; under is 7-2 in his last nine. Indians won his last four home starts.

Astros are 13-5 in last 18 games; five of Astros’ last seven road games went over. Cleveland won eight of its last ten home games; under is 7-4 in their last 11 games.


Teams’ record when this pitcher starts:

Phil-Wsh: Asher 0-0; Cole 1-2
Cin-Pitt: Straily 16-10; Nova 5-1/7-8
Mil-StL: Guerra 12-6; Garcia 13-14
Col-SD: Hoffman 0-3; Richard 2-2

Hst-Clev: Paulino 0-0; Bauer 13-10
TB-NY: Cobb 1-0; Sabathia 12-13
Tex-Sea: Holland 10-7; Walker 7-13


# of time pitcher allows 1+ runs in first inning:

Phil-Wsh: Asher 0-0; Cole 0-3
Cin-Pitt: Straily 7-26; Nova 5-21
Mil-StL: Guerra 4-18; Garcia 11-27
Col-SD: Hoffman 2-3; Richard 0-4

Hst-Clev: Paulino 0-0; Bauer 7-23
TB-NY: Cobb 1-1; Sabathia 5-25
Tex-Sea: Holland 2-17; Walker 4-20


Teams’ records in first five innings:

Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/7
Arizona 24-36-11…..27-36-5…….51-71
Atlanta 27-36-11…..21-31-13……48-67
Cubs 35-24-9……43-21-8…….78-45
Reds 18-41-8……31-35-5…….49-76
Colo 25-30-12…..33-34-4…….58-64
LA 27-29-9……46-21-8…….72-50
Miami 30-30-10…..30-23-16……60-53
Milw 20-38-8……40-24-10…..60-62
Mets 29-42-9……33-26-11…….62-58
Philly 23-31-16…..24-32-13……47-61
Pitt 20-36-12…..41-24-5……61-59
St. Louis 33-31-7……27-28-12……60-59
SD 22-46-4…..30-32-6……..52-78
SF 32-33-7…….34-20-13…….66-53
Wash 36-22-14….28-20-19……64-42

Orioles 26-35-9…….36-27-8……..62-62
Boston 29-28-11……43-18-9…….72-46
White Sox 31-31-9……36-29-4………67-60
Cleveland 35-26-7……34-29-6……..69-55
Detroit 30-32-9…….30-31-4……..60-63
Astros 29-32-11…..32-26-7……..61-58
KC 27-35-11……28-25-13……55-60
Angels 30-37-7…….24-30-11……54-67
Twins 25-35-12…….25-36-12…..50-71
NYY 23-38-8……32-29-10……55-67
A’s 22-38-8……26-33-13…….48-70
Seattle 31-29-9……32-25-12…….63-54
Tampa Bay 22-29-11……32-33-12……54-62
Texas 26-36-9…….35-24-9……61-60
Toronto 42-24-5……..38-27-4……80-51

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five to Follow MLB Betting: Thursday, September 8, 2016, Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

I monitor several MLB news sources daily to get updated injury information that might affect a betting decision on any given game. But I was just as surprised as anyone that the Marlins activated slugger Giancarlo Stanton from the DL on Tuesday after he reportedly was going to miss the rest of the regular season due to a major groin strain. If rosters weren't expanded, then Stanton probably wouldn't be active. And he's only expected to pinch-hit for a while. Why the Marlins did this is pretty obvious: they are completely fading out of the NL wild-card chase. Alas, I don't see Stanton contributing enough in one at-bat a game to change anything. He did have a pinch-hit single on Tuesday vs. the Phillies, but the Marlins lost again. Miami also activated first baseman Justin Bour off the 60-day DL on Tuesday. He was batting .268 with 15 home runs and 46 RBIs when he was hurt. The Marlins were easily the newsiest team of Tuesday because Ichiro Suzuki hit the first pinch-hit homer of his Hall of Fame career. Now he's done everything!


Astros at Indians (-142, 8.5)

The only matinee of the day with a 12:10 p.m. ET first pitch. I think it's going to be tough for Houston to be a wild-card team for a second year in a row following the news that 2015 Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel was again scratched from a start (this time Tuesday's) and has been shut down from throwing at all for a little while due to shoulder inflammation. Originally slated to start last Friday's series opener against the Rangers, the Astros pushed Keuchel back, first to Saturday or Sunday and then to Tuesday, because of what they described as fatigue and soreness. I'd be surprised if we see him again in 2016. Houston goes with rookie David Paulino in his big-league debut here. Paulino went a combined 5-4 with a 2.00 ERA and 106 strikeouts in 90 innings in the minor this year. The Tribe's Trevor Bauer (10-6, 3.70) is working on a string of four straight quality starts. He beat the Marlins on Saturday, giving up three runs and four hits over 8.1 innings. Bauer won in Houston on May 10, throwing seven shutout innings. Jose Altuve is 3-for-12 off him. Carlos Correa is 0-for-7.

Key trends: The Indians are 0-4 in Bauer's past four at home. The "over/under" has gone under in six of his past nine there.

Early lean: Indians and under.

Rays at Yankees (-130, 8.5)

Tampa Bay is going to shut down shortstop Matt Duffy, the key piece the team got in the Aug. 1 Matt Moore trade with San Francisco, for the season because of an Achilles injury that has bothered him most of the season. He didn't play anywhere near at the level he did in finishing second in the 2015 NL Rookie of the Year voting. This series is Tampa's last at the Yankees this year. The Rays go with Alex Cobb. He made his return from Tommy John surgery on Friday vs. the Blue Jays, allowing two runs and four hits over five innings with seven strikeouts. It was his first MLB start in 18 months. Jacoby Ellsbury is just 4-for-22 off him. Brett Gardner is 2-for-15. New York's CC Sabathia (8-12, 4.20) has thrown three straight quality starts but dropped the past two. He is 1-0 with a 5.06 ERA in two starts this year vs. Tampa. Evan Longoria is a career .400 hitter off him with seven homers and 16 RBIs in 70 at-bats. Logan Forsythe is 8-for-19 off him with two homers.

Key trends: The Rays are 4-0 in Cobb's past four in Game 1 of a series. The over is 4-1 in his past five overall. The over is 5-0 in the past five meetings.

Early lean: Rays and over.

Reds at Pirates (-137, 8)

Pittsburgh's deadline trade for Ivan Nova has worked well as he's 4-0 with a 2.89 ERA in six starts with the Bucs, but they are still going to miss the playoffs. Nova (11-6, 4.34), who will become a free agent after the year, took a no-decision on Saturday vs. Milwaukee, giving up two runs and five hits over six innings. Nova's Pittsburgh debut was Aug. 6 vs. the Reds, and he won that game, allowing three runs over seven innings. Joey Votto is 2-for-8 career off him with a homer. Brandon Phillips is 4-for-9 with two homers. Cincinnati's Dan Straily (11-7, 3.83) beat the Cardinals on Saturday and gave up a run and struck out seven over 5.2 innings. He is 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA in 21.0 innings this year against Pittsburgh. Josh Harrison is 3-for-10 against him with two solo homers. Andrew McCutchen is 3-for-14.

Key trends: The Reds are 5-0 in Straily's past five vs. the NL Central. The over is 6-1 in his past seven. The under is 7-2-1 in the past 10 meetings.

Early lean: Pirates and under.

Brewers at Cardinals (-153, 8)

Milwaukee's 31-year-old Junior Guerra (7-3, 2.85) has been one of the more unlikely rookie success stories this season. He returned from about a month on the DL due to some elbow soreness on Friday in Pittsburgh and was pulled after 3.1 innings despite not allowing a run because Guerra was on a pitch count. He is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA in two starts this year against St. Louis but this will be his first outing at Busch Stadium. Matt Carpenter is 3-for-3 off him. Yadier Molina is 0-for-3. Cards lefty Jaime Garcia (10-11, 4.41) lost a third straight start Saturday in giving up two runs over six innings in Cincinnati. He is 2-1 with a 1.23 ERA in three starts this year against the Brewers, who are hitting only .132 off him. Ryan Braun hits .179 off him with nine strikeouts in 56 at-bats. Chris Carter is 2-for-6 with a homer.

Key trends: The Brewers are 2-9 in their past 11 in Game 1 of a series. The Cards are 4-1 in Garcia's past five at home vs. teams with a losing record. The over is 5-2 in the Brewers' past seven vs. the lefty. The over is 4-0 in Garcia's past four.

Early lean: Cardinals and over.

Rangers at Mariners (-105, 8.5)

This is the final time the AL West rivals play this season, which is a bit surprising with still a good three-plus weeks to go. Texas goes with lefty Derek Holland (7-6, 4.57). He's working on a string of three straight quality outings and beat Houston last time out in giving up two runs over six innings. Holland is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA in three starts vs. the Mariners this year and 12-5 with a 3.56 ERA in 24 games against them in his career. Robinson Cano is a career .356 hitter against him in 45 at-bats. But monitor his status as Cano is day-to-day with a sore right foot. Nelson Cruz is 5-for-17 with two homers. Seattle's Taijuan Walker (4-10, 4.60) still hasn't managed to live up to his tremendous promise, but he's only 24. Walker was bombed last time out by the Angels, pitching just two-thirds of an inning and allowing six runs (three homers). Walker is 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA in two starts vs. the Rangers. Adrian Beltre is 7-for-13 off him with three doubles and a homer. Rougned Odor is 5-for-10 with a homer.

Key trends: The Rangers are 5-2 in Holland's past seven in Seattle. The Mariners are 1-5 in Walker's past six vs. the AL West. The over is 13-3 in the past 16 meetings.

Early lean: Rangers and over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB*|*COLORADO*at*SAN DIEGO
Play On - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (SAN DIEGO) below average NL hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a below avg bullpen (ERA >=4.50), starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest
373-268*since 1997.**(*58.2%*|*109.3 units*)
22-16*this year.**(*57.9%*|*5.9 units*)


StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB*|*TEXAS*at*SEATTLE
TEXAS is 173-133 (+62.5 Units) against the money line in all games*over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: TEXAS (4.7) , OPPONENT (4.6)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Panthers (0-0) at Broncos (0-0)

Date: September 08, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

Much has changed since the Denver Broncos defeated the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50, and the evidence will be undeniable when the same teams kick off the 2016 season Thursday at Sports Authority Field.

Denver's win in Santa Clara, Calif., was a coming-out party for linebacker Von Miller, the Super Bowl MVP, who made life miserable for regular-season MVP Cam Newton and the Panthers.

Since that defining performance, Miller became the highest-paid player on the Broncos' roster - and the top-paid defender in the league. In addition, five-time league MVP Peyton Manning retired, the Broncos lost his backup Brock Osweiler in free agency and cut Mark Sanchez, the player acquired in March to become Denver's starter.

What's left is most of the core of Denver's defense, which harassed Newton and the Panthers into mistakes and missteps from start to finish in February.

"I think you could use a lot from that game, but you'd be fools to think that they're going to run the same plays," said Miller, who had 2 1/2 sacks and forced a fumble in Super Bowl 50. "I think that we could use some things that we didn't do well and some things that they did well and we think that they're going to try and attack us in those areas."

Continuity counts in Carolina's favor. The Panthers cut ties with All-Pro cornerback Josh Norman, who went on to sign a mega-deal with the Washington Redskins, but the heart of the NFC championship roster is otherwise nearly intact.

For his part, Newton downplayed his shot at redemption Thursday night, saying "it's not a rematch" at all.

Newton knows he won't see Manning on the field this time.

The Broncos didn't even announce a starter until after their third preseason game of 2016. Trevor Siemian, a 2015 seventh-round longshot out of Northwestern, beat out Sanchez and 2016 first-round pick Paxton Lynch for the opportunity to face Pro Bowl linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis.

While Denver head coach Gary Kubiak has been enthused about the growth of Siemian, the harsh reality is that the Broncos head into the 2016 home opener with question marks all over the offense.

That's feeding the heightened pulse of the Panthers, who marched through the regular season with a 15-1 record last season and aren't hiding the revenge play.

"I think it gives us that chip on our shoulder that we need knowing that's the team that held us back from our ultimate dream," Panthers fullback Mike Tolbert said.

It's not just Siemian getting comfortable. The entire offense is attempting to jell behind a mostly new front five. Only one starter from the Super Bowl offensive line, center Matt Paradis, is back.

Denver's piecemeal group will be facing a defensive line that the Super Bowl offensive line could hardly block. Panthers defensive end Kony Ealy had a game of a lifetime. He recorded three sacks and had a hand in two takeaways.

More than Ealy, the Broncos will be worried about the interior line of the Panthers, defensive tackles Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei.

Protecting Siemian is a top priority. The Broncos still have offensive weapons on the outside at wide receiver. This is the major area the Broncos hold the advantage. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are two of the best in the NFL but for each of them to shine, they must hope the offensive line holds up and Siemian has the time and ability to get them the football.

The Panthers will be starting a rookie cornerback and playing a total of three rookies against the duo of 1,000-yard receivers.

Kuechly said Carolina won't overlook Siemian after studying his preseason film.

"I think he's smart; I think he's confident in what he's doing, and they do a good job of running the ball - that makes everything easier," Kuechly said. "I think he has a good grasp of what they're trying to do offensively, and we have to make sure we're prepared for it."

James Bradberry, Zack Sanchez and Daryl Worley all were selected by Panthers general manager Dave Gettleman to fill the void left in the secondary. All three, along with Bene Benwikere, will be tasked with trying to contain the Broncos passing attack.

The Panthers made the Super Bowl with average wide receivers last year. With the return of Kelvin Benjamin - who could be allowed to play up to 35 snaps in his first game back from a season-ending ACL injury in 2015 - and the maturation of Devin Funchess, Newton has legitimate threats on the outside to test the Broncos' feisty secondary.

Old reliable Greg Olsen had a career year at tight end in 2015 and will be looking to top those statistics versus a rebuilt Broncos' linebacking corp.

"We can't make or break our whole season on the first game," Olsen said. "What's done is done. The past is the past. We have a whole new season to look forward to. The more we try to hinge on correcting what happened in the Super Bowl, the more we're going to keep getting pulled back."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday’s six-pack

— The eventual Super Bowl champ has a 40-9-1 record in its Week 1 game that season.

— Alabama went 7-6 in 2007, Nick Saban’s first season; since then, they are 99-12.

— Drew Brees signed a one-year contract extension with the Saints.

— Someone at South Point Casino in Las Vegas bet $50K on the Panthers in tonight’s game at Denver.

— Stephen Strasburg left his start last night with an injury after 42 pitches, bad news for the Nationals.

— Nevada sportsbooks have had ZERO LOSING SEPTEMBERS since they started tracking this stuff, back in 1988.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Wynn

Bonus Play: MLB Pittsburgh w/Nova -145 Over Cincinnati

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Razor Sharp

FREE PICK FOR THURSDAY: Take CLEVELAND (Bauer) -145 over Houston

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

#1 Sports

Thursday's Free Selection: Washington Nationals - 200

 

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Golden Dragon Sports

Free Pick Texas Holland pk

 

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Platinum Plays

Free Pick: NY Yankees w/Sabathia -120 over Tampa Bay

 

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Totals4U

Thursday's Free Selection: Philadelphia/Washington Over 8 1/2

 

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Huddle Up Sports

Bonus Play Cleveland Bauer -150

 

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Hawkeye Sports

Thursday's Free Selection: LA Sparks - 9 1/2 (WNBA)

 

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The Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Thursday: Take TEXAS/SEATTLE UNDER the total of 8½ runs

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Thursday: Pittsburgh Pirates - 145